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The Dollar Bashers Are Back In Force
As from one Englander to another, so from one massive dollar short to another, we next shift to Steven Englander of BarCap and his daily "Dear USD" hate mail. The man who has been obsessively telling his clients to sell dollars as if he was a subsidiary of Goldman Sachs, must have booked some serious L on the recent, and very much expected, dramatic dollar retracement over the past 3 weeks. In his latest "FX for paranoids and hopeless romantics" Englander does point out one relevant item: that the Fed needs EM countries to keep selling the dollar in order to i) keep commodity prices higher, thereby benefitting these very EMs, and ii) to keep commodity price inflation high, in the absence of other forms thereof (wage, non-commodity price, etc). And that is why, Englander hopes and prays, both for his book, and for those of his clients, that Bernanke will keep on talking big all the while printing more and more dollars as ever more wealth is channeled from the middle class to both Wall Street and abroad.
The report is interesting in that for once Englander, having been discredited by the recent dollar rally, allows for the possibility that the dollar is not a one way train to Hades. For the first time, he discussed the possibility of a eurozone country (Greece) defaulting but staying in the euro - a situtation in which you do not want to be long EUR.
The problems facing Greece have brought the infrastructure of the euro area into focus, as we discuss in “Eventually all chickens come home to roost.” The spirit of the Maastricht Treaty’s “no bailout” provision suggests that this is the tough love that is supposed to be an integral part of the euro, However, few investors believe this is a likely outcome. The collateral damage on the bond markets of the countries seen as having similar difficulties is likely to be immense. Even speculation on this score is likely to lead to significant EUR weakness, as most investors take the view that a bailout of some sort is the most likely outcome (although that certainly does not preclude some tough love, as any parent will be familiar with).
However, even if the tough love provisions were followed, the EUR would not be in the clear. Countries with difficult fiscal situations that did not default could find themselves with pre-
ERM interest rate differentials and post-ERM exchange rate inflexibility. In these circumstances, often an accompanying devaluation helps since it opens some upside to the fiscal offender’s currency and the appreciation risk can take some pressure of rates, but this would not be possible in the EUR world.
The incentives are immensely in favor of fiscal consolidation, tough love, and some exceptional aid, and these would be EUR negative, even in the absence of a default (which we do not expect by any means [TD: no way]), but the FX consequences of a default would be an order of magnitude greater, even if it were thought that the default could be accomplished without an exit from the euro area.
So with that proper Cramerian hedge (being right no matter what happens sure must be nice), the usual DXY bashing ensuses:
Central banks have been disciplined so far in limiting their USD selling. In Q2 the IMF COFER data showed that the USD represented less than 40% of incremental reserve accumulation, but there is little sign that reserve managers are selling enough USD to drive down the USD share in reserve portfolios significantly. Almost all of the drop in the USD share in reserve portfolios over the last 7-8 years has come from valuation effects rather than direct USD selling.
The question is whether this discipline will continue to hold. At present, it does not appear that any major reserve manager wants to be responsible for creating a run on the USD by selling hand over fist. However, while no central bank wants to be the first to sell, no central bank wants to be the last either, so the risk is that if it becomes clear that there is significant official selling, other reserve managers will follow. Putting the two together, there is a potential “bank run” problem. If reserve managers lose confidence in USD strength there is a first-mover advantage in selling it. All know this and it could easily lead to a period of USD strength followed by a sharp fall as people run for the door.
This and the previous item point in opposite directions. The difference is that USD selling can be precipitated by a single reserve manager selling significant USD out of its portfolio, whereas the first risk requires some degree of coordination across central banks.
Full report:
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I truly grow weary of dollar bashers. I just don't get it.
All currency trades are relative to each other.
The United States is relatively no worse off than other countries, particularly the Eurozone.
The USD is the world's reserve currency and on a relative basis, over ninety percent of all relative currency trades involve the USD.
Sorry, I hate to be a loud-mouth but this "dollar going to hell in a hand-basket" stuff is just irrelevant.
Sorry, I hate to be a loud-mouth but this "dollar going to hell in a hand-basket" stuff is just irrelevant.
In your dreams.
There is room for relative dollar strength within the context of an ongoing cooperative (rather than competitive) currency debasement. I believe the major central banks are trying to mask currency debasement by sequentially debasing their currencies. In other words, they are taking turns. This enables the appearance of strength and weakness to be alternated. What does this accomplish?
Well, it seems obvious that all the major western nations have too much debt, and they need to get out from under it. Either they can produce enough excess to pay the debt (not very likely) or they can debase by printing. I think this fact is obvious enough that the markets can be seen anticipating it and reacting to it. The exact scenario that is being watched for is the often-predicted "competitive currency debasement" where all major trading partners try to reignite their economies by inflation. This would trigger a massive rush into gold and would cause a massive loss of faith in central banking. Central banksters don't want this to happen and so I believe they have agreed to take turns. In doing this they hope to keep eyes focused on relative currency measures like USDX and NOT on purchasing power.
"I believe the major central banks are trying to mask currency debasement by sequentially debasing their currencies. In other words, they are taking turns."
Thank you, SWRichmond, you have made my point for me. The author of the note is not speaking of purchasing power and nor am I. There is no doubt that the purchasing power of the USD on a domestic basis has lost some 97% since 1913. That is a given fact.
What I am talking about is Purchasing Power Parity between currencies. That is a relative term and the author of the piece decrying the "fall of the dollar" is simply wrong based on your very own analysis. If every currency is being debased by "taking turns," as you say, then the relative strength remains relatively constant over time and the 4X trader can take advantage of swings in the markets.
One must ask the simple question: what is the USD falling in relationship to? The Great British Pound Sterling? I think not. The Euro? Nope. The Japanese Yen? Sorry. It is just not happening.
The only reason the USD did not crush every other currency under the sun at the height of the crisis secondary to risk aversion was because Uncle Ben traded dollars for Euros and Cables, thus propping up their markets and preventing a run on everything dollar-denominated. See the YouTube clip where Alan Grayson grills the Fed chief on just that subject. The Fed "swapped" $US 500 Billion in that emergency period. That money will be (eventually...) repatriated at the expense of the other currencies and when that happens, PPP on the USD will greatly increase over that of the Euro or the GBP.
The author of the note is not speaking of purchasing power and nor am I.
Precisely. While you are speaking as a trader I am speaking as one who ultimately uses currency to buy things, and would like to use it as a store of value. I meant to focus attention on purchasing power, which I consider to be much more important than relative value. Whether that currency is debased either alone or equally with other major currencies is not relevant to me. The statement you made that I took issue with was the the one I quoted above. Currency debasement may not be relevant to you, but you concede that that is only within the perspective of a forex trader.
One must ask the simple question: what is the USD falling in relationship to?
Over the long term, we both know the answer to that one, don't we?
Yeah all currencies are relative to each other, blah, blah blah...
So when is it a good time to trade those fake paper relative currencies for real GOLD currency? Hmmm?
Perhaps when China is encouraging their citizens to load up on Gold?
Or maybe when the UN starts producing Gold currency, for the world to save their wealth in rather than Fake Paper Ponzi Crap currencies!
http://seeker401.wordpress.com/2009/12/20/un-to-produce-gold-and-silver-...
GOT GOLD SUCKAS!
Paper trades relative to real things, bud.
yep
http://commonsenseoracle.com/2009/12/foreigners-wont-let-the-usd-collapse/
But this may treat reserve managers too much as profit maximizers and not enough as central bankers for whom economic stabilization is the first priority.
How can I take anything this guy says seriously when he starts with such a glaring error? The first priority of central bankers is the preservation of the central banking model. Everything else only exists to serve that end. The appearance of competence is very desireable, but as will soon be demonstrated in the U.S. it is not required.
Dollar going to keep rallying until all the idiots give back their gains!
But as the earlier article mentions - if they
do blow their 40:1 world up again, they will
need another bailout.
This time we need to "let it burn".
Nice introduction and title.
Why not just call him a 'dollar-phobe' engaged in dollar bashing, and declare it a hate crime?
Its a market. Opinions differ. Except for true believers and their cultish followings.
But the market does not care much what your opinion is and your ill wishes for any who might differ on your losing trades.
In the longer run, the price will go where it wishes, and the trend is discernible for those who would see it.
In the shorter term, one trades the market they have, both up and down. That is the difference between a successful trader and a patsy.
The decline of the dollar is based on some very sound fundamental reasons. Until those change the trend is intact, but the market will fluctuate on the 'technicals.'
If you really need to trade your ego and emotions, if you think it bears weight that you say the market WILL do this and MUST do that, if you cannot change your methods, then you may as well just mail your checks directly to Wall Street, and do something productive with your time. Because you are not arguing for reform; you are just a part of the problem.
Wall Street and Traders are the problem. As are banks.
Each of them produces NOTHING OF VALUE.
Speculation is money for nothing. Trading is money for nothing. Usury is money for nothing. These are all antithetical to functioning societies and invariably end up in tears.
Our private banks have exclusive control over the power to create money and they do so for a fee! Every dollar in existence earns a coupon to some banker. And banks get to lend money they never even had and then earn interest on it.
I really marvel at the trader crowd who gets pissed off at the "manipulation" that costs them money. Look, do something productive, give up speculating. The speculators want to TA their way to paper riches and then buy up all the real things in the crash.
How the hell is this different from what a bank does by lending at interest "capital" it never possessed and using inflation and deflation to end up owning everything? This country wasn't built on freaking speculation and hedge fund crap. That was the UK and we revolted from it. We were a production nation on a gold standard.
No sooner did we let the banker clan infest our nation than did we collapse and become a host for parasites.
Trav777,
Don't forget about the role that the American consumer plays in this. Domestic household debt to GDP has climbed from below 60% in 1985 to over 120% today (I believe peaking north of 130%). How can financial institutions create anything of value through domestic investment when we're individually and collectively overspending ourselves into receivership?
The banks and financial institutions are only a means to an end. To correct the problem, we first must correct the behavior of the U.S. consumer. And there's no banking regulation and/or political maneuvering that will pull that offer, short of legislating to create additional incentive to increase domestic savings and investment. Debasing the currency doesn't help that cause, and the impending health care "reform" will be our coup de grâce.
as a craftsman , I agree with Trav777. Whats the incentive for people to work, when we keep hearing about the wallstreet boys making millions per day via a phone call or the push of a button.
Perhaps thats why so many youngsters dont see any point in working. Further, many young folk see manual labor as a waste of time.
Theres a lot of us watching the wallstreet white shoe boys. A year from now, when we meet,you had best lie about what you did for a living.
merehuman,
I respectfully disagree with your perspective. I find that too often people suffer from an inability to compartmentalize their thoughts, and often put the wagon in front of the horse. I find it hard to believe that anyone would struggle to find incentive to work in order to put food on their own table, unless they feel that someone else (Obama?) would be willing to do it for them at no cost to themselves. If children today see no point in working or view manual labor as a waste of time, in my opinion, that is an indictment of poor parenting, not Wall Street boys making millions per day.
As the product of generations-deep, blue-collar roots (I'm the first person in my family to graduate college), my old man beat into my head the concept of earning a living by using my head, not my back. Millions of people away from Wall Street earn a living via phone calls or the push of a button; salesmen/women, engineers, doctors, lawyers, therapists (physical and psychological), etc...
There is enough blame for this mess to go around for all of us. No one is without at least a drop or two of blood on their hands (see my prior post). As for threatening former Wall Streeters to lie about what they used to do for a living, why not instead ask them how to profit by way of building relationships and leveraging your intellectual capital to create a system that you can manage yourself?
I find that too often people suffer from an inability to compartmentalize their thoughts, and often put the wagon in front of the horse.
Respectfully, when you start a post with "I'm smarter than you", you should not expect to form the basis for a rational discussion.
If children today see no point in working or view manual labor as a waste of time, in my opinion, that is an indictment of poor parenting, not Wall Street boys making millions per day.
In a normally-functioning economy I would agree with you, except that now, and transparently to anyone who is observing events, it makes absolutely no sense to be paid small amounts of "dollars" for a day's work when vast quantities of these same "dollars" are being effortlessly clicked into existence at the whim of one man, and then given to the Wall Street Banks, and then not at interest, but with interest.
Respectfully, transposing "I find that too often people suffer from an inability to compartmentalize their thoughts, and often put the wagon in front of the horse" into "I am smarter than you" is a gross inaccuracy. That statement was not directed towards 'merehuman', nor did I state that I am incapable of that very same error myself. I understand how that may have been your interpretation, but do you think that you may have been looking to extrapolate that thought to further your own argument?
With respect to your statement of of the debasement of the dollar, I understand your position and I agree fundamentally with your perspective of disincentive. But why does the resulting action from the supermajority of society ALWAYS result in laziness and apathy, as opposed to investigation and pre-emptive action? All anyone needs to do is read a few posts from 'Gordon_Geko' or 'SilverIsKing' to figure out how to parlay their hard earned money into any myriad of precious metals to avoid debasement.
Fundamentally, I think that we share more common ground than not. But I cannot rationalize any argument that states people are justified in not earning an existence for themselves with respect to sustenance. Call me a Randian Objectivist or a Social Darwinist if you wish, but I'll never be able to reconcile that type of reaction. There is always a solution, it usually takes effort to find it, and I feel no sympathy for those who choose not to.
[Dupe]
Young people today are ignoring the pursuit of "money" but are investing their time in preparing themselves for productive lives, much of it orientated to science and the arts. The wasted lives of speculators and money changers are as distastful and beneath them as drunks and drug abusers.
Now you guys are onto something. Still various fetters of illusion are falling faster now -- but more remain. Take it all the way back to first principles. If interest is placed upon the very unit of exchange the essence of the game is then not just about production but about gain with no production; a transfer of value ensues from earnings via actual production to earnings with no production behind it. This also causes a likeness downward as the masses then try go about this same thing -- yet we see that various forms of Cramerism pervade and a larger proportion of individual speculators hoping to procure gains from no production get skewered by the "house." When the very strucutre is thus "bent" from the very foundation -- then transpires a far more adversarial landscape for all which some would call normal but is essentially a product of the foundation -- for in reality -- all are vying for what is actually fewer gains via production! As a consequence of simple self preservation means to ends become yet more greedy, deceptive, and pervasive. Morpheus says; "Welcome to the desert of the real..."
Google: Mike Montagne and perfecteconomy and thus discard the blue pill...
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard addresses this issue in the opinion piece below.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/685193...
"This will get worse. Southern Europe is being ordered to carry out IMF-style austerity, without the IMF-style devaluation required to rectify the massive imbalances that have built up between North and South under the euro. The victims are caught like France and Germany under the Gold Standard of the early 1930s, when society was broken on a wheel of deflation decrees. "
Wow! Paper Gold sure is looking cheap today. Wish I could get the real stuff that cheap on ebay.
Gold just dropped. Doubt that was dollar bashing.
Gold closed under 1100 on the daily and is heading for 1032, then under 1000. Peter schiff and fellow self-aggrandizing extremist, Marc Faber will eat their hats.
You could be right. When you understand that it doesn't matter you'll be even righter.
If gold vaults over $1,200 will you slink away never to be heard from again?
Are your gold valuations based on some sound economic principles or is this just the way you feel today? No charts nor graphs for us to ogle?
Where is TD today for my daily fix of ZH?. Anyway,on the topic. While most people realise they have to work for a living,stereotyping a society to look up to few figures,doesn't create the desired effect. MSM idealize Michael Jordan,and millions of black kids leave everything and just play basketball in the hope of becoming one. 99.9%fail to become one and end up having mediocre jobs. Or idealize (pick any star)and you get millions of girls or boys trying to become one,and forgetting in the process that stardom is a black swan event and not the norm. So yes,hearing that many people can make a lot of money easily,does have a negative affect on society. And now we have college graduate working as restaurant "managers",instead of utilising their education. A complete debasement of manufacturing,because after all,why do you need to work on an assembly line if you can become a Michael Jordan or Tom Cruise?
The dollar rally I forecast some time ago continues to trend up (although overbought atm after it's big run.)
The rally may last for years.
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0
expect a sovereign default then
love to see our paper rally into $1.5T annual deficits
The rally may last for years.
I ask everyone who asserts this these same questions, and never get a meaningful answer. I looked through your forum postings and saw nothing there either, so please enlighten me, because I really do want to know, I remain as open-minded as I can:
What are the measures that can be put into place that will enable the United States government to meet its financial oblligations?
Where is the political constituency that will cause these measures to be enacted?
You might as well be speaking in a foreign tongue. Reality/math has nothing to do with it for some people.
There is a firm, palpable, and sometimes even clearly stated belief that Uncle Sugar will NEVER have to pay his bills.
He will just keep on selling debt, and the world will keep buying.
Forever.
Never underestimate the human mind's powers of self-delusion.
Once again, and as my old acupuncture teacher used to say, "You make confuse."
Relative to other currencies, the USD will rally. Maybe not for years, as I grow tired of GrandSuperCycle's rantings about it, too. (A broken clock can be right twice a decade- even in the 4X market...)
Basically, it is this way: when the liquidity bubble wears off and the markets in equities and commodities correct, investors will rush to be in safe-haven instruments, such as the United States Dollar and US Treasuries. (Gold is not the answer. The market is not large enough nor liquid enough to support trillions in incoming money. Besides, the premia for physical will eat you alive- especially as a home-gamer...)
Here is where you keep getting confused: no one is arguing domestic purchasing power v. inflation. The USD will rally relative to other currencies. Period.
I don't know why you continue to confuse the two distinct issues.
Dead on.
Unfortunately (at least for those who attempt to explain it), most people cannot compartmentalize their thoughts and identify that these are two separate issues.
I realize your contentions boil down to a firm belief that the world is irretrievably wedded to the U.S. Dollar hegemony system. Perhaps one of you more enlightened gentlemen who are adept at such compartmentalized thoughts can explain to me a few matters?
Does the output of a printing press have value? Yes or no.
If your answer is yes, then why do we not simply print our way to prosperity, and everyone can quit working?
If your answer is no, then who gives a flying fuck if the dollar is stronger than the yen, if both are headed towards the equivalent of Zim dollars?
I know you will want to say something in between. After all, we have legal tender laws that allow us to require people to accept our printed tokens as valuable, but this only applies domestically.
I couldn't help but notice that neither of you were able to furnish answers to my questions posed above about the measures that will be put into place. Maybe I can put it another way so it will fit into your compartmentalized thought processes. After this: when the liquidity bubble wears off and the markets in equities and commodities correct, investors will rush to be in safe-haven instruments, such as the United States Dollar and US Treasuries.
What happens next?
Listen up you stupid fucking twat. If you could stop for two fucking seconds, change your goddamn tampon, and read very clearly what I have posted, you would realize a few things very easily and not need to start calling ass on everyone who you THINK disagrees with you, fucknuts!
Maybe this air of superiority that you claim I exert over you is nothing more than my ability to properly interpret not only the words, but also the context, of what someone is saying, as opposed to performing the mental gymnastic that you have done because you disagree with one or two details of what someone says!
I'm not Nostrodamus. I'm not George Soros. I'm not Tyler Durden. But, I pay attention to what others say, rather than coloring it with my our perspective.
You said:
Not only have I said NOTHING to contradict this statement, but I MOSTLY AGREE with it! (I don't think that it is coordinated, but I feel that the net results will likely be the same.) Further, anyone who doesn't have shit for brains would recognize that when I responded "dead on" after 'Orly' posted this:
...that this question doesn't need to be asked:
But no, Mr. Shit-for-Brains can't put two and two together to realize that I'm ALSO concerned about long-term rampant inflation - the exact same fucking thing that you stated again and again! Holy shit, that's TWICE I agree with you.
In order to "remain as open-minded as I can," the first step would be to pull your head out of your ass. The second step would be to objectively process the information before you. The third step would be to rub your vagina. The fourth step would be to weigh the merits of it based upon your own fundamental understanding of the circumstances. The fifth step would be to go fuck yourself. And the final step would be to sensibly ask questions about what you don't understand. But no, you want to go fucking Chernobyl on someone, and for what???
You want to know what happens next? Let me tell you what I think...
Interest rates are at bottom basement levels for one very importantly reason - Bernanke is scared shitless about the $1.5T CRE bust right around the corner. 25- 40% of that debt won't be refinanced (either because of under-performing/non-performing properties, or because market rates will be too high), and the banks are going to shoulder the vast majority of the losses. Therefore, I think he has two goals: (1) provide the landscape for banks to earn their way out of harms way via a steep yield curve, and (2) monetize as much of that CRE debt as possible by murdering the dollar.
What does that translate to in the future? Short term, when shit starts hitting the fan again, people will rush back into the dollar and U.S. Treasurys - hence "the USD will rally relative to other currencies. Period." Long term, hedge the fuck out of your portfolio, because rampant inflation is going to be a motherfucker.
I say this time and again to people - I share more common ground with you than you think I do. For what ever reason, you're focusing on something else. Why that is, I don't know. But if you would have just asked me rather than blow me up, I would have told you.
As for your question about "who gives a flying fuck if the dollar is stronger than the yen, if both are headed towards the equivalent of Zim dollars?" I would answer that it very much depends on WHEN that is going to happen. If we're facing an imminent dollar rally v. the yen or other currencies before the final death knell, then there is still money to be made on the dollar before pulling out like Ron Jeremy. Therefore, it would seem to make sense to do so, right?
http://www.thatforumplace.com/ronjeremy.jpg
So, are you loading up on the long end
of the Treasury curve? Zeros? Is this the
window? I say this cause I mostly agree
with your thesis....just curious if you're actually starting yet to put your money where your mouth is.
You really are quite emotional, aren't you? You really should learn to control your emotions, outbursts like that will get you into real trouble some day.
For what ever reason, you're focusing on something else. Why that is, I don't know.
I would answer that it very much depends on WHEN that is going to happen.
As I stated above, repeatedly, and which you don't seem to be able to grasp, I meant to call attention to the final outcome, which I believe is inevitable. You and Orly continue to fous on the short term, which I find as puzzling as you find my focus. In another post above (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/dollar-bashers-are-back-force#comment-1...), Orly made the statement that "Sorry, I hate to be a loud-mouth but this "dollar going to hell in a hand-basket" stuff is just irrelevant."
It's not irrelevant; I find the statement to be shocking. His (and apparently your) insistence that it is tells me a lot. Your time horizon is breakfast tomorrow; mine is the next twenty years, those that should be the most productive years of my two now-young-adult offspring. Yout focus seems to be entirely on figuring out how to profit from the market; I see few if any statements from either of you, unless prodded, that indicate your care at all about the long term health of the market you profit from. I run into this a lot, this trader's perspective. Does it ever occur to you that the existence of the very market from which you (apparently) make your living pushing into and "pulling out of like Ron Jeremy" is itself threatened? You know, the market that at one point actually functioned as something called a "capital market", where savers were able to put their capital to work in companies that actually made things and caused the economy to grow and create wealth, until you bright boys invented the "FIRE" economy. The FIRE economy market that had to be bailed out by the taxpayers to the tune of, according to SIGTARP, $23.7 Trillion.
This is where your trader's perspective got us, you stupid fuck.
Edit: Maybe it's time for some disclosures. I am long precious metals, and my long-term perspective means I have no intentions of selling them any time soon. Wanna tells us about your Treasury holdings?
No one asked me, I know.
You both have valid perspectives. Unscarred says it's going down anyway, wants to profit while he can because it ain't going to be there tomorrow. SWRichmond says its the looting attitude that is making it go down in the first place. Unscarred can't stop everyone from looting so he plans accordingly-pragmatic. SWRichmond sees a bigger picture that has to do with integrity and maybe his soul. Neither position is "right" just a position.
My position is more like SWRichmond, I don't want to feed the beast. But at the end of the day, if Unscarred were to "trade" this well, he may have more security than we do, we may be too conservative and idealistic.
You two sound like a father and son having a serious knock down drag out.
This is why I enjoy reading your comments, Ms. You get it. What you did was look at both perspectives, see the good and bad in both, evaluated them at face value, and NOT pass judgement with respect to morals and ethics (as each has their own set of beliefs - nothing is universal).
If more people in the world were like you, maybe this clusterf#<% would never have happened. You're a blessing here at ZH.
Thanks again.
Whose being emotion? I'm just calling it like I see it. Does bold and direct language intimidate you? You might want to grow a pair some day.
Here's the bottom line- you still keep putting other people's words into MY mouth.
If Orly said "dollar going to hell in a hand-basket stuff is irrelevant" in some other post, what does that have to do with me? I didn't comment on that, nor did I didn't say anything along those lines whatsoever. But your mental gymnastics and ass-backwards logic seems to infer that if I agree with one comment by a user, that I agree with ALL of their comments!? You are retarded.
Let me dumb it down a bit so that maybe you can understand it: I agreed with Clinton's balanced budget, but that doesn't mean I agreed with NAFTA. I agreed with Bush's tax cuts, but that doesn't mean I agree with his wars in the Middle East. I feel that health care reform is imperative so as to salvage what's left of our economy, but that doesn't mean I think the bill in Congress right now is the answer to our problems. To borrow from another of 'Orly's quotes, "I don't know why you continue to confuse the two distinct issues."
Further, when you say that Orly and I continue to focus on the short-term, you STILL don't have any idea what your talking about. Listen son, I take the long view on EVERYTHING, but you wouldn't know that, because you're too busy staring at your colon. Having said that (and in comparison to the examples above), why not acknowledge the short-term, as well?
I'm focused on BOTH, not one or the other. Given that one happens first, it seems a bit illogical to ignore sequence. I'm thinking 4 and 5 steps ahead. It's called strategy. That comes from spending more than 5 seconds of putting someone else's words in another person's mouth and actually thinking about what the fuck is going on. If you want to buy and hold, great. If I want to squeeze a little more out of my positions, so be it. You're not right, and I'm not wrong. What works for each of us works for each of us. And like I've said, we both agree on this, so why continue being a dick about it?
With respect to the health of the market: Do I worry about it? Not as much as I worry about the health of the financial sector and the economy (both domestic and global). (FWIW- The health of the market is a byproduct of those two things.)
What's really funny is that while you point out that my entire focus is on how to profit from the market, you don't even realize that your intention is to do the exact same thing, as well. That's why you are long PMs, because you expect THAT market to appreciate. But I'm not calling you an ass for attempting to earn a buck, so why do you do it to me?
If you really cared about the health of the market, then BUY Treasurys and support your government while they attempt to heal the economy. Buying PMs doesn't NOTHING to help the health of the economy. So why don't you do that? Because you don't want to lose money. That means you don't care enough about the health of the economy to have it cost you your livelihood. I wouldn't do it, either. So why am I an ass, and you a saint!? More mental gymnastics...
What caused the FIRE economy? Easy money, dishonest bankers, and greedy consumers. I didn't keep interest rate policy too lax for too long; I didn't underwrite any CMBS, CBO, CDS, etc.; nor did I buy a home that was 5x out of my price range. Don't put this on me.
What I WILL say, however, is that simple-minded people like you who refuse to acknowledge other people's perspectives are why we as a society collectively and continually spend 5 hours on shit that should only take 5 seconds. What do you think THAT does to an economy? Look around.
If you had just said, "I hate traders; I love the economy, but not enough to put my money where my mouth is; I hate Treasurys; I love PMs; Dollar going to zero in the long-term; I put other people's words into your mouth," we could have avoided this unnecessary discussion.
And the truly funny thing of it all is that we both share the exact same fundamental perspective of the dollar's fate. But since I don't want to react the exact same way as you, I'm an ass. Makes perfect sense to me. [Shrugging]
Disclosures: Short EUR/USD and GDP/USD; before that, long AUD/JPY, with leverage, collecting the carry; never held Treasurys; missed the first gold spike, looking for continued correction before taking my position, but I think silver is where a lot of people are going to make their wealth.
[Edit] Read MsCreant's comment.
Does bold and direct language intimidate you?
Your use of language, which I would never characterize as "bold and direct", tells me volumes about you. Stringing together expletives and personal attacks might seem "bold and direct" to you, but to me it's puerile. It's so bad it's really hard to read your posts; you seem no longer able to convey any information without the need to try to make your point with an ever-escalating personal attack. If I don't agree with you, or don't concede your point, then all manner of personal malice is directed to me.
You might want to grow a pair some day.
You mean I need to man up and start swearing at people online? Yeah, I'll get right on it. Let me just add that you seem really focused on certain body parts.
If you really cared about the health of the market, then BUY Treasurys and support your government while they attempt to heal the economy.
Why in thunder would I buy Treasuries and support this government, in the short, medium, or long term?
Buying PMs doesn't NOTHING to help the health of the economy. So why don't you do that? Because you don't want to lose money.
What's really funny is that while you point out that my entire focus is on how to profit from the market, you don't even realize that your intention is to do the exact same thing, as well. That's why you are long PMs, because you expect THAT market to appreciate. But I'm not calling you an ass for attempting to earn a buck, so why do you do it to me?
I've not bought PMs as a trade, nor, frankly, in an effort to "profit", at least not in the sense I suspect you use the word.
We've gotten way off track. Read this post, which you agreed with: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/dollar-bashers-are-back-force#comment-1... where Orly refers to my earlier exchange with him with "Once again...." You agreed with this post: did you not read the earlier exchange? It's the one where I made statements in reponse to Orly's, which as far as I could tell you agreed with, and which just resulted in your charging me with putting words in your mouth. Hmmmm... And both of you continue to accuse me of being confused, and I am certain I am not. He and you argue for what I interpret to be a near-term rise in demand for Treasuries and USD. I didn't disagree, and I know they are two seperate issues. I intended to focus attention on the longer term as a counter to Orly's post. What happens in the short term doesn't concern me one bit if the train still goes off the cliff long term. I don't know how many times I need to say that, or why I need to say it so many times. I could add some bold and direct language here to amplify my point, but what would that really prove?
I didn't keep interest rate policy too lax for too long; I didn't underwrite any CMBS, CBO, CDS, etc.; nor did I buy a home that was 5x out of my price range. Don't put this on me.
Are you doing anything about it other than trading and trying to profit from it? If not, it's on you.
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So how much is ZERO relative to ZERO ?!
if the gold market is not "large enough or liquid enough to support trillions in incoming money," then doesn't that mean that gold is grossly undervalued right now?
Jesse:what market you are talking about?There are about 5-8 mega banx that have trillions under their command(people's deposit,and not investor's money). So basically their is huge monopoly on the "market". And,eventually it will crack in favor of fundementals,as it did last year,and all the trillions available will not be able to stem the tide. Look at how gold is attacked,but how long this monopoly can go for?as long as the fed allows it to,and then boom,hyperinflation comes knocking loudly...
We should each HAVE to make our own shoes. Be able to live without money.
I have done so many years as a hobo. Age and common sense forced me into business. What we all seem to miss, is the moment. We tend to see our lives on a imaginary timeline without end.We go to disneyland and fail to see the journey. The only true value we have is our life in the moment, but we live with our thoughts, our minds attention on reigning dilemmas and desires.
Excuse me for rambling.The point i am trying to make is that we need to bring quality back to the moment, in life, in money and in personal honor.
right now is a good moment to be alive. It is an adventure now more than ever.
Ah the challenges, the tribulations and humiliations to come. It will do us good to get grounded. We will find we need each other.This may even generate a greater capacity to love!
We should each HAVE to make our own shoes. Be able to live without money.
I have done so many years as a hobo. Age and common sense forced me into business. What we all seem to miss, is the moment. We tend to see our lives on a imaginary timeline without end.We go to disneyland and fail to see the journey. The only true value we have is our life in the moment, but we live with our thoughts, our minds attention on reigning dilemmas and desires.
Excuse me for rambling.The point i am trying to make is that we need to bring quality back to the moment, in life, in money and in personal honor.
right now is a good moment to be alive. It is an adventure now more than ever.
Ah the challenges, the tribulations and humiliations to come. It will do us good to get grounded. We will find we need each other.This may even generate a greater capacity to love!