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Dollar Breaks... Again
For those rare occasions when a megasqueeze in financials just won't raise the market:
"Break dollar in case of manipulation failure"
In other news, everyone at the SEC is currently on a 7 hour long coffee break, spiking the top line of SBUX and GMCR.
The S&P's closing price has already been decided.
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They all read the articles about hot chicks in the coffee joints last night. Just doing economic research today; report to follow.
Might need to do auto-refresh posting of the DXY GIPS screen. It's lower by the minute.
Funny thing is - a lot commodity stocks aren't buying it (even though JJC, JJN, LD, et al remaining parabolic). Seeing a lot of red there, or just barely breaking green now. And, yeah, gold still down.
960ish in summer is gold down? Doesn't it traditionally dip further?
Down a buck for the day.
the seasonal correlation in gold has pretty much gone haywire since the appearence of the financial fail whale
http://www.banking-business-review.com/news/national_spot_exchange_to_ta...
Seasonal gold correlation? Could you explain a bit further? On the other hand I've noticed that they have been pretty well correlated the last few months..
Gold normally lags in summer (July/August) and surges in fall and winter. This correlation has become somewhat irrelevent over the past 18 months.
Will it reach it's 2008 lows?
will it stop at it's 2008 lows?
Let's put it this way, punky: in the future, when you want to buy something, you'll pay by one of the following:
1) Silver
2) Gold
3) Ammo
4) Guns
5) Food
6) Your labor (for what it's worth)
To put it another way, forget the dollar.
I am Chumbawamba.
Don't be so sure. The elites have a way of screwing everyone over when they least expect it. Intermediate to long term the dollar is toast. Short term the picture is not so clear.
This is why you hedge. ie. You need to add "7) Cash (USD)" to your list for it to be complete. Physical cash, that is. Not hallucinated computer pixels. A dollar revaluation will not result in the value going to zero. It will start with a 10-50% overnight reduction on some major event (war, plague, bank runs, fdic failure, whatever).
pm,
agreed. almost EVERYBODY is talking crash Sept/Oct. this assigns a lower probability to the elites allowing it to happen at that time. it will happen at such a time as to inflict maximum pain.
great line TD about smashing the dollar - the inflation game is on - last week's market run up was even more ludicrous vs the losses raining everywhere...
flash trading gets turned off.. is all focus on cap and trade now for GS or do they whirlpool the dark pools? everyone eying GS like tornado chasers not even concerned their packs are being swallowed up one by one
My best guess is end of Sept at the earliest, simply because I've got a huge position in Sept 30 SPX puts, from 1000 down. I'm out net premium s.t. 945 is about my breakeven... I suspect I'm screwed
They're pushing hard, take a look at the FAZ as well.... They're trying to pump out all the shorts again... the financials are mainly going up off the crap stocks. While I don't think this is the start of the final leg down if they push us up much further in the next two days, I doubt they will stop the momentum that will build next week. Although if they do it will make way to a spectacular rally. If so, look to September 10th...
"spiking the top"
SBUX serves liquor now don't ya know?
(it's the fundamentals)
Bonds don't care much for the falling dollar.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^TNX&t=1d
'climbing the wall of worries'. LOL !
Climbing a wall of forced short closing by any means possible.
This economy must be incredible bad if they are going through all the dirty tricks book to force it higher.
Sooner or later the emperor and his nudity will be shockingly apparent even for the most gullible braindead zombie to see
This stock market is frakked. PAULA ABDUL QUIT AMERICAN IDOL AND WILL NOT RETURN.
My God you guys, the Sheeple will not tolerate Kara DioGuardi!!!
The End is Near!!!!
(I'm sorry but it had to be said...)
Is China only buying TIPS from now on ? There was also news that Treasury is looking to increase TIPS from november. In that case where are we going to offload the remaining debt for this fiscal year ? Chinese are smart - TIPS means the 'inflate way out of debt' play is over. Maybe the plan is to let the primary dealer make a lot of money trading with which they can pretend to be the indirect bidders for the rest of year ?
Wouldn't it be a better idea to let the market fall so everyone will want to go to a safer place than shares sorry I meant computer scoring points
Where that trade ends in epic fail is that TIPS are indexed to CPI, which has been underreporting inflation since way back when.
We are smart, if we can get suckers to buy our TIPS.
~
Finance is up today? I didn't notice. Oh wait something called AIG is up 65% today, But I am sure having sold off most of the company's units for firesale prices worldwide and retaining only the lamest parts of the business and being saddled with a net of perhaps only 40 or 50 billion dollars in taxpayer repayments to make, that should worth like oh 40x 2018 earnings.
no ramp jobs anywhere in the market.....
Didn't you hear the news, they're giving out free handjobs and an 8ball of blow with every policy sold. As a result they are likely to see their profits increase by 65%.
It would sell me a policy!
Course, Im from vegas, thast everyday life...
Come on Steak use the correct terminology; It's yayo....
Turn your head sideways, frown and think Tony Montana...
you want my yayo!? you want my yayo!? you wanna play rough eh. alright I play rough. Say hello to my little friend.
Don;t worry Tim and Treasury pklan to issue 30 year TIPs..that makes it good paper
remember to hedge , ppl! if usdx goes under 71 or way up to 90 i don't want to hear all the losers bitching about how ZH lost them money. HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO, WORKER DRONES!
Zero Hedge name has become prophetic. There is soon to be zero opportunity left to hedge yourself in this market (that isn't subject to manipulation itself).
What does hedge mean?
Sincerely,
Barney Frank
Drones do not work. They mate with run-a-way queens and die.
I would add on a general basis that I have yet to see ZH make investment recommendations and I've been here since around Feb.
Good luck to all and I would add that Proj Mayhem has good advice about hedging....
I'm hedging with lots of cash, small additions to my short position. Almost grabbed faz today but will wait to see if they can push the bkx to 45.5-46
I'm starting to dip my little furry foot in the short puddle again too. But if it
gets too hot again i'm outta here!
HA ! This is funny. SEC has no naked short case on file
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090803-711044.html
They leave it up to the self regulation by financial institutions. Yeah give the house key to the burglar and take a stroll.
funny didn;t the guy who advisied to halt the 30 year advise treasury a year or so ago to stop issuing tips? now they are moving the duration out..
Kicking the can way down the street, weedhopper
check RSI and see if DXY is diverging? confirming gold and bond market? this baby could be close to a big reversal?
a few words of advice - quit obsessing over lagging stale manipulated economic data that is irrelevant to the future
the markets are doing their job
junk? you guys are SO bearish you can't even tell when the market is signalling a reversal - shit is diverging all over the place but all you want to do is complain that duke and duke are rigging the game - the market is screwing with your heads because you are biased - quit listening to the news and reading economic data - just watch price, everything will become much more clear
C is their latest darling - 1.1 billion shares traded and counting
TIPs are pegged to CPI. China should buy with a contingency clause that it is pegged off a basket of hard goods
Or a deed to the State of California.
PPS inversely correlated to toxicity.
Be sure to chase the REITS higher... higher... come closer to the trap door...
Overheard at PPT/Fed/Whitehouse/Treasury/GS/DTC pre game strategy session today:..." This is going great guys, if we can just that stubborn .DXY down to zero we'll have 'em right where we want 'em."
Chinese came out and said they want more TIPs rather than the standard treasury bonds. Look for the bond route to continue. Notice TIPs are flat today while the rest of the t-bonds are getting smoked.
And no, I am not sure how higher interest rates help REITs
the effectiveness of all these machinations seems to be waning. Is it only me or do things seem like they're falling apart?
I concur with glenlloyd. Things are falling apart.
On every level.
PUT on Martial Law soon.
"Where that trade ends in epic fail is that TIPS are indexed to CPI, which has been underreporting inflation since way back when.
We are smart, if we can get suckers to buy our TIPS."
I think this nails it. All the other countries that have gone through severe inflation and hyperinflation have had an official rate of inflation that was only a fraction of the real rate of inflation. China would do slightly better with TIPS than with ordinary treasuries, but only slightly. Or they could start a war, economic or otherwise, when the US cheats them again.
Anyone got job leads in New Zealand?
I can only liken this carnival ride to the movie "Event Horizon".
The crew discovers that although the ship's drive successfully opened a gateway in space-time, it actually led outside the known universe and into another dimension, described as "pure chaos, pure evil", which may or may not be a reference to Hell. The Event Horizon's reconstructed video log shows the original crew activating the gravity drive and, moments later, engaging in a frenzy of torture, self-mutilation, cannibalism, murder, and rape. The ship's captain, who has torn out his own eyes, leaves the previously-heard Latin message which has since been found to actually say liberate tutame ex infernis ("save yourself from Hell").
It appears that the Event Horizon has returned with a supernatural and extremely dark presence which is using its occupants' personal torments against them, with the aim of compelling them to return to the "chaos" dimension.
The horror, the horror. Save yourself from hell.
well, first dollar; later double dip and then the trade war! In the end, there won't be any green shoots unless we complete the deleveraging process.
is it just me or does industrial music go really well with reading zero hedge
how about SRS ?
All the leveraged ETFs have tracking error. This somehow seems to magnify whenever the serfs are set to make money. I would either get a margin account and trade for real, or else stay the fuck away from the falling knives.
the leveraged etfs r a day to day game. geometric average, day to day from my understanding.
Not day to day anymore; it's baked in the real-time trading price now. The higher the volatility, the higher the loss on rebalancing. Even worse, it's exponential.
There's probably been expert papers written on this by now, since this tracking error was widely discovered last September (or before, by the bigs who were early adaptive users).
::
a quick look indicates the dollar is about 10% up from Mar '08 and the S&P500 about 25% down. no big deal. so what?
this is certainly entertaining, though. "Break dollar in case of fail". lol.
this dollar isn't hard. so, the only value it has is relative to other currencies and we're not the only country trying to print, borrow, spend, steal and prostitute our way out of this jam. i could do with a tad less political corruption, but what are you gonna do? we didn't invent corruption. governments exist to be corrupt. yawn.
On a different note, anyone notice that the Baltic Dry Index is down for 5 straight days, and that it's beginning to trend downward again?
I was wondering if it might be seasonal but not exactly a good economic sign...and no, goldman sachs cannot short this
actually, at this time of year it should be up because of all the stocking and restocking that has to be done by Fall .... it doesn't really surprise me, in this day and age, nothing out of the ordinary ..
Has a little more room on the downside before breaking down:
http://www.dryships.com/pages/report.asp
Still every shipping CEO sees spot rates lower at the end of the year.
Some various financial liquidity indices, like HSCLOG and BFIUS are well better than year ago levels... I think it's a head-fake, but it's real today. LIBOR is at remarkably low levels too...
Oh, here we go. Aussies reported that employment increased, due to a flood of new part-time work. AUD goes ballistic, carry trades take off, and the Dollar will get pressured even more.
It's not crazy enough that the US Futures somehow went from down almost 1% after the CSCO talking - back to even by dinner time... Now that the Dollar will selloff further, US futures are Green... Yeah, part-time jobs in Australia means a rally in the US. CSCO is irrelevant.
I'm going to go find my baseball bat. And hopefully remain disciplined enough to stay away from the computer and TV.
Well for the late owls out there, keep your eyes on the Shanghai...currently down nearly 2% at the moment
It's at a 50% retracement level and if it fails then we should expect to see a significant move down, and perhaps this is what the BDI is telling us
S&P 500 and Dow struggling with 38.2, NDX at 50%; traders probably rotated a lot of money to the financials and REITs to take advantage of upward momentum but are not at 38.2 yet, note how the NDX has churned the last 2 weeks
Good notes. China made some nice Green-Shootish comments early this morning; not sure if it was printed here - I didn't see it all day until now:
From the PBOC:
"China's economy is now in a critical period of stabilization and recovery, and maintaining stable and rapid economic growth is still the most important task we face," the People's Bank of China said in its quarterly monetary-policy report. "Although the general trend of stabilization in the [global] economy has been basically established, the process of recovery may be slow and tortuous."
With global demand for China's exports still weak, a solid rebound depends on domestic consumption and investment, the central bank said. Chinese companies may be more willing to ramp up production now that inventories have been reduced.
Sentiment among private-sector businesses remains weak, it said, and consumers' worries about future income could crimp spending. "The foundation of the economic recovery is not yet stable," it said, echoing other agencies' recent comments.
The central bank also cited numerous uncertainties to the outlook for the global economy, including changes in the U.S. dollar's exchange rate, commodity prices, inflation expectations and protectionism. "These factors could, in combination with inevitable shocks to the economy and financial markets, test market confidence and affect the progress of the recovery," it said.
Seperately, this was a good read:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/KH06Dj02.html
Oh, and the previous comment about the AUD spike and everything following - it failed. Was a very temporary spike, and has given virtually all of it back already. Things seem to be much more rational when US markets are closed!
less risk aversion. so?
and where's my f'ing captcha? i know the temp of absolute zero.
was referring to $ chart posted. look at it and tell me it's not a proxy.
What the dollar is at the moment is the funding currency for carry - i.e. what the yen was .
And / or the hedge for funds that are playing the US equity / bond game.
Would love to see the 'Primary Dealers' FX positions and the relation to their Treasury holdings (if they aren't already on the Fed's books). Would think that they are hedging any Treasuries with USD funded carry trades - not exactly helping the Dollar.
Its unlikely that that kind of data is available or collatable ... but take a look at the chart for say the Dow or the S+P - agst the DXY (partic since this "crisis" began and take it onward to when the rebound occurred).
For stats, the Dow is up about 40% from lows - and the Aud and Nzd are down about exactly that much from the lows agst the Dollar...
The price tells the story...
apols - that shud be the Aud and Nzd are "UP" about exactly that much from the lows agst the Dollar ...
It would seem that the natives are getting restless. A little civil unrest in the USA might not help the USD much.
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/08/voice-of-america.html
Warning - the YouTube video in the blog post contains swearing and violence.
It's actually 10 minutes by an average American with a baseball bat in his garage listing off all of the lovely 'green shoots' while smashing up 'made in China' stuff with his baseball bat and generally ripping into the Fed, the Treasury and the way that the current US administration is handling the current situation.
Could it be that he is not the only American feeling a bit piqued by the nonsense?
big hug from
Namke von Federlein