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Dollar Cremation Resumes

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Just as Bob Pisani was getting giddy that for probably the second time in 2011 the dollar went up in concert with the Russell 2000, here comes reality washing over the true value of the world's most hated reserve currency, and forcing the DXY to drop to yesterday's lows, which incidentally are just pennies away from multi year lows. Should the Yen resume its strength forcing the BOJ et G7 to intervene again (just as ineffectively), look for the DXY to promptly take out all lows as the Bernank once again goes to the front of the currency devaluation race.

 

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Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:18 | 1095571 DutchTreat
DutchTreat's picture

I love the smell of burning US dollars in the morning. It smells like VictorEU.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:20 | 1095591 Moric
Moric's picture

hmmm I can't seem to find the EU in "burning Us dollars"...

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:30 | 1095640 Mercury
Mercury's picture

DXY = Euro 57.6%
Japanese Yen 13.6%
British Pound 11.9%
Canadian$ 9.1%
Swedish Krona 4.2%
Swiss Franc 3.6%

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:35 | 1095657 silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

1 dxy = sdr 0.630096  

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:20 | 1095593 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Realistically now, how low can it go?

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:23 | 1095606 vas deferens
vas deferens's picture

zero, no really, 0

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:27 | 1095627 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

No chance, at least not yet.

I'm still not seeing anything to convince me that this is anything other than a well managed manipulation of a currency, and the same for gold and silver.

The Dollar was maintained far too high through the Asian currency pegs for far too long and needs to fall.

But I don't get the feeling this is anything other than a well managed revaluation of this currency by all CB's as yet.

 

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:36 | 1095679 LoneCapitalist
LoneCapitalist's picture

Here are some sugestions for you. Try doing some research on; state bugdets, federal budgets, medicare & medicaid projections, and social security projections. That should convince you.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:40 | 1095695 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

so what's to stop you printing all the money you need?

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:49 | 1095722 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Your kidding right!! Think Weimar, wheelburrows and Zimbabwe.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:50 | 1095728 LoneCapitalist
LoneCapitalist's picture

Nothing. The problem is, the more you print the less valuable it is. Thats the death spiral and as far as Im concerned we are already in it.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:01 | 1095765 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

I don't think you've taken into account all the CB's collective options. Wiemar never had a sovereign fund or two to bail it out, Bernanke does.

I know what you're saying, and whilst I don't agree with what he, King, Trichet or any of the others are doing I don't for an instant think Bernanke is a bit thick either. They will have thought of this and devised something that they think makes this different.

Must have, no one's that stupid.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:33 | 1095941 D.M.
D.M.'s picture

Not to mention ALL the central banks are printing like crazy, not just the Fed. IMO the goal is global goverment with one currency, or global war.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 14:03 | 1096086 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

DM I'm not seeing anything that would convince me there is any conspiracy or global goal, just a bunch of half wit politicos who will always take the easier 'least painful in the short term' route.

We could well see an attempt at a global currency and you could argue that we already have with SDR's, but I don't see it, and to be honest I don't think we need it. I think the CB's have ample room as yet to manipulate both markets and currencies and I hate to say it, PM's too.

Why isn't gold flying? We've just had a scale 9 earthquake followed by a 30 foot tsunami which resulted in a virtual wipe out of the worlds second largest economy in a full on nuclear meltdown. Why is the economy not all going pear shaped as we speak?  Who is buying all these treasuries?

I don't see enough pressure in this system despite what I read here to tell me that this is the end of the line, which it ordinarily should be.

I see a future in which the entire productive capacity of the palnet can be less than the interest cost of all outstanding global debt and still the global economy can survive... in theory anyway. But I believe long before we reach that point the peeps will have had enough and the economy will fall apart.

And good riddance too if you ask me.

Global war is the likely outcome...because you can't stop people being stupid, and you can't stop wankers promising what they can't provide, like an acceptable achievable solution to an underlying problem of too many people.

and there we have another can of worms...

 

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 14:09 | 1096122 D.M.
D.M.'s picture

Why should global government and currency even be considered a conspiracy? Its the next logical step in extending the ponzi scheme. Even more consolidation of power and wealth.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 14:19 | 1096164 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

If you say 'Its the next logical step in extending the ponzi scheme' I'm inclined to agree with you...

But I'm not sure about the consolidation of power and wealth bit.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 15:03 | 1096298 10kby2k
10kby2k's picture

When the US Fed changes rates its just a matter of time before most CB's around the world follow suit.  The difference in yield curves between US and EU are small. Monkey see, monkey do.  EU threatening to raise rates to 1.00%  LOL  not much difference between 1.00 and 0.25.   Its not a conspiracy......they don't have to be covert.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 15:16 | 1096327 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

zero possibility of them raising rates anytime soon if you ask me...

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:46 | 1096010 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

Is this the same Bernanke who didn't foresee the housing collapse, who insists there's no inflation, and who says the revolutions happening overseas have nothing to do with the Fed's monetary policy?

I have trouble believing everything is going all according to his 'plan'.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 14:15 | 1096157 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Not for an instant do I think he didn't see this coming. If you and I can work it out I'm sure he can too.

Bernanke did what he had to do at the time, sweet talk the markets and try to minimise the damage, and it nearly failed if I remember rightly.

How can anybody believe that Greenspan didn't see it coming, he even had the gall to call his book the Age of fucking turbulence. These guys know exactly what they're doing and to underestimate them will in my view prove very expensive. These guys knew exactly what was going on in the Goldman and JPM Board room if you ask me, must have done to have repealed Glas Steagall and staved off any regulation of derivatives for the banks.

You should not underestimate the man, or his cohorts.They exist to ensure that government deficits are funded, so does the FDIC, CFTC and the SEC. You are about to find out that they are not on your side, never were.

I buy gold, but I buy it for the long term with little or no expectation of any short term monster gain. Slow and steady and onward and upward, so to speak.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 19:41 | 1097481 The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

Well its not a matter of stupid or smart really.  For instance imagine living in the top of a tower that was always being built. This tower posess these qualitys: It is more stable when it is growing and it can no longer stay upright if it does not grow. You have no way out of the tower and if it falls you die.  If the only way out is death sooner or death later, you might keep building the tower, this would be "smart" and utterly doomed to failure.

Our tower is made of fiat money.

Further, a large portion of the poeple managing the other 3,800 failed fiat systems were probably pretty clever too, didn't help.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:51 | 1095733 economessed
economessed's picture

That's what I'm going to tell the IRS this year.  Stop shaking me down for money when the Bernank can print all you need.  Seriously. 

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 14:55 | 1096283 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

o.0 ?

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:16 | 1095837 bmwm395
bmwm395's picture

Ben is that you?

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:57 | 1096064 phyregold
phyregold's picture

+1

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:23 | 1095616 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Who was it who said, "All paper currencies are destined to return to their intrinsic value....nothing".  Probably paraphrasing here, but history proves all fiats are worthless. Without exception.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:30 | 1095644 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

I'm not aware that history has ever seen a significant number of CB's conspire to manipulate all currencies collectively.

Under a gold standard it's simple and very fast but this failure could go on for some time.

Whilst I do believe that calamity ultimately awaits,
I am not sure we are anywhere near the end as yet.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:41 | 1095694 NumberNone
NumberNone's picture

Agreed.  All the CB's are in on the game.  Bernank can do whatever he wants as there is no CB in the world to call bullshit on his actions.  All have a blood pact to live by the ponzi or die by the ponzi.  Timeline for failure has yet to be determined.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:42 | 1095704 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

I think we're singing from the same song sheet here, but my view is that this is far from near any collapse, and we haven't seen any real intervention from Sovereign funds yet...

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:55 | 1095744 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Collapse comes when faith in paper money comes. Seems to be happening faster as we go along. Look at the price of silver this week. The only reason fiat has value is because people believe it has value based on faith in the govt. That's not holding up to well in my book. Look at the anonymous letter posted on ZH today. The cracks are everywhere and when it goes it could be very fast.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:11 | 1095820 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Guys, your all looking at this as if it's another Wiemar, where we had largely many economies on a stable or semi stable footing and one government off on one printing money.

Yes the adjustment was very fast and accelerated but that is not the case here. Now we have many economies all screwed, so there is nothing to devalue against other than PM's in my view.

But we also have leverage through fractional reserve that turns $  bilion of fiat into maybe $9 billion of subsequent demand when its invested in a bank as capital, so every dollar printed can result in at least twice the demand for the original debt with plenty left over for manipulation.

Let's not forget that Wiemar didn't have a booming derivatives market either, Bernanke does...

I don't disagree with the sentiment here but I do suggest that this might not play out as many seem to expect.

This will be a fail, but it will be a long drawn out on in my view...and this is not it.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:31 | 1095930 jesusfreakinco
jesusfreakinco's picture

Harlequin,

FWIW - I agree.  The charade will go on much longer than most people suspsect.  I am in my early 40s so I have only articles to read to understand the end of the BW agreement.  However, I suspect that many thought the USD would collapse shortly thereafter. 

Happy to be in PMs and will continue to trade with my fiat for awhile for 'gains' (aka the anti-dollar delfation) and try to convert more and more into tangible assets.

I hope you and I are right or I'll end up with a lot of worthless fiat if they USD devalues overnight...  We shall see.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:45 | 1096002 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Jesusfreakinco, They will definitely devalue the dollar. That was a requirement of the currency pegging era. The problem is that all the Asian economies are geared up for manufacturing for export, and they can't afford to let that happen.

If we'd been on a gold standard these imbalances would not have crept in in the first place, but now they are so large that turmoil is inevitable. Nobody can afford that turmoil, and nobody wants it either, which is why I say that this is unlikely to be a Wiemar and more of a long drawn out pull.

It could all go badly wrong and a real jerk could well happen, and so to that end I stay well away from equities and any derivatives because you never know the quality of your trade.

But if you understand what a sovereign fund is and how it works, we could be many years off a full blown failure. You could well see two tier economy before this ends, one for corporate and banking and the other more of a black market for little folk, but ultimately the formula is still a monster fail.

I know with PM's I can't lose if I hold it properly and away from the derivatives business, and away from the tax man, but yes, let's hope we're right.  Personally think I'm well positioned either way.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 14:53 | 1096271 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

What are those sovereign funds composed of?        U. S. Treasuries.

You got a supposedly rich pool but it's backed by hot air.   Don't depend upon these funds to have any clout when TSHTF.   In fact, the material to feed the fan could come from here.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 15:04 | 1096300 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Rocky, we know that but it doesn't matter. They've been backed by hot air since dot but they haven't collapsed yet.

China can simply print a few billion new Yuan, buy a US T and pledge it as collateral to a European bank for liquidity through its swf.

Through that mechanism they can create demand for anything in either US dollars or Euros or any other currency for that matter and if they lose half in a US or Portuguese collapse for example, they simply print another few billion Yuan, buy another US T and replenish their collateral with the European bank - and hold the bonds to maturity. Technically it's infinite. No need for any default, anywhere.

Apply that to the derivatives market and PM look like your still getting what your given and no more...

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 15:54 | 1096503 d_senti
d_senti's picture

You're saying that there's nothing to devalue against other than PM's, which is true in a monetary context, but it applies equally well to all commodities. You have all CBs increasing the amount of fiat cash in the system, yet the raw materials and finished products are remaining constant or declining. As such, the dollar/yuan/euro printing leads to price inflation (also known as inflation) regardless of their relatively stable value compared to each other.

What does it matter that you can exchange $1.50 for 1 euro in a few years, so long as it costs $1000 dollars to fill your gas tank or buy groceries? That being said, "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." I agree that the Bernank has some sort of escape plan, but it will fail.

You can't fight the markets. You really can't. That's the greatest fallacy, in my mind, of Keynesianism. You can stall trends at most, but it will go where it wants to go. Weimar can't happen here, specifically, but some variation of the same thing can.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:56 | 1095751 economessed
economessed's picture

Why wait until the collapse is evident (it will happen with amazing speed once we cross that point).  Why not opt-out now?  Convert those FRNs to other stores of value.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:17 | 1095854 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

FYI economessed, I started investing in gold in 2002. Right now, apart form maybe less than 10% in gold mining equities I only hold physical gold and silver, and not through an ETF... and have done for the last 5 years.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:37 | 1095674 paddy0761
paddy0761's picture

 

cossack55

François-Marie Arouet (Voltaire): "Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value -- zero".

 


 

 

 


Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:40 | 1095692 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Thanks Paddy. The old gray matter isn't what it once may have been.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:43 | 1095710 jesse livermoore
jesse livermoore's picture

voltaire

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:09 | 1095805 savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

was prob greenspan when he was a good guy.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:22 | 1095879 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

Voltaire.

 

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:59 | 1096078 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

Voltaire in 1729

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:23 | 1095607 egdeh orez
egdeh orez's picture

When is Ron Paul going to do something?

Or is this all a show?  Yawn.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:35 | 1095661 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

We're too far down the road for Ron Paul to do much at all I think.

What would he hope to achieve, and what would be the impact on society?

Nightmare, and ultimately unavoidable, but nightmare nonetheless...

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:35 | 1095669 Larry Darrell
Larry Darrell's picture

Rand Paul was on the local radio show this morning.

He said 2 things:

1)  I will not run for the presidential nomination if my father runs.

2)  There are options we are exploring if my father decides not to run.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:10 | 1095818 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Ron Paul and Rand Paul seem like sincere people.  They essentially have zero chance of getting the GOP nomination.  No way will the GOP nominate people like them.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 19:59 | 1097546 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Better question:  How many challengers will Obamatron face in 2012?  At least one:  Alan Grayson.

 

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:08 | 1095798 Verstehen
Verstehen's picture

What can Ron Paul do? He is drowning in a sea of Keynesian economics. We must play this until the end. Its the way democracies work. Nothing and nobody can break away until the collapse comes.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:29 | 1095639 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 currency markets, as well as, pm markets, love double bottoms and double tops; they reverse off them. ninety percent of the time markets trade in a trading range; the most likely immediate future is for the DXY to trade up for a "reasonable period of time"; foretold by looking at the DXY chart.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:30 | 1095645 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 currency markets, as well as, pm markets, love double bottoms and double tops; they reverse off them. ninety percent of the time markets trade in a trading range; the most likely immediate future is for the DXY to trade up for a "reasonable period of time"; foretold by looking at the DXY chart.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:30 | 1095646 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 currency markets, as well as, pm markets, love double bottoms and double tops; they reverse off them. ninety percent of the time markets trade in a trading range; the most likely immediate future is for the DXY to trade up for a "reasonable period of time"; foretold by looking at the DXY chart.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:40 | 1095698 taraxias
taraxias's picture

You should do something about that twich..

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:52 | 1095732 reading
reading's picture

Is it the IQ that gives you the jumpy trigger finger?

 

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:19 | 1095583 Live_Free
Live_Free's picture

Stare in awe at the currency devaluation master bitchez!!

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:20 | 1095584 assumptionblindness
assumptionblindness's picture

Kamikaze Ben, Bitches!!!

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:19 | 1095585 prophet
prophet's picture

Is the end of the dollar the end of the fed?  If so, would it be easier to end the dollar rather than trying to end the fed?

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:35 | 1095671 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

The FED, being a private entity with shareholder wealth to preserve, will let the treasury fall on the sword.  Currently the FED is feeding the screaming toddler known as federal gov spending with buying of Treasuries.  One day the FED will need to stop (to preserve shareholder wealth).  When that happens massive defaltionary pressures will insue.  Notice how the budget discussions are heating up in the news.  This is a political move by the FED so when default happens, the american people will blame the treasury.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:15 | 1095839 Shameful
Shameful's picture

What about another take?  Load the shareholders up with cash by taking toxic assets off the books so said shareholders can buy better assets.  Since they touch the fresh dollars first they spend like normal dollars at the time and can clean the balance sheet and emerge with a strong amount of assets and then have the debt blown up with a currency collapse.

Can't see a political will for deflation which would cause a cutting or open default.  Since cutting is not possible, see Wisconsin over a few measly million.  And default in effect kills the dollar since it's based on "full faith and credit" of a bankrupt nation.  However can still blame treasury as the masses don't know much abut the Fed reserve, and the Fed can claim they were forced to buy those treasures and forget to mention asset swaps with shareholders or dumping dollars in their pockets.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:38 | 1095955 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Excellent points.  personally, I see a case for deflation.  The puppet known as Bernanke reads economic textbooks and his actions are based upon their theories.  Currently Bernanke is reading the chapter about deflation being bad and therefore is his throwing money at the problem.  One day, when inflation is 15-20% per annum, he will move on to the chapter about Hyperinflation and see that it is bad as well.  He will then choke off money printing.  I believe the purchase of toxic assets were to protect the shareholders as you outlined.  However, I do not see a high probability of hyperinflation.  It is too distructive.  I have to believe cooler heads will prevail..  In the event of a default, Dollars will still have some value (or some sort of dollar equivalent).  The US is a large economy with high division of labor.  People will need a method of exchange. 

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 14:16 | 1096150 Shameful
Shameful's picture

I simply cannot see a situation where the major banks survive a deflation. So when looking at the situation I only ask two questions.

1. What helps the TBTF the most?
2. What keeps the ponzi going as long as possible?

Deflation forces defaults and slays the major banks. However a massive inflation clears their positions and being the ones with best access to the money they can run in front of it. Even in a hyper inflation there is profits to be made if the banks can still borrow below the rate of inflation and buy assets (See Wiemar for actual examples). Remember even in hyperinflation the masses continue to use the currency for a while, and then we have the smoothness of legal tender laws.

Deflation also forces the US Gov and state gov to cut massively. I cannot see this happening, and then realize that the level of cutting is EPIC. So they would have to default, and again point out it ruins a lot of balance sheets. So why take the hard option when the easy option helps out the TBTF, and keeps the masses mollified a bit longer?

Having said that I expect there to be bounces back and forth. Say crashing the market and opening up the view-port to the infinite debt black hole to scare people into dollars a few times before the eventual final inflationary gallop at the end.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:51 | 1096035 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Banks incite greater rage amonst the populace than the treasury.  Both the drug user and her pusher are to blame for the addiction...  Americans do not need to know the intricacies of the FED to blame the banking system for our failures...  remember, the treasury is a representation of the citizenry, the FED, not so much.  We will blame anyone before ourselves.

Further, I cannot envision a scenario in which the FED remains whilst the USG falters...  In the end, I think many of the prized assets of either will be auctioned to the club for firesale prices...  I could also see the FED being sold out to keep the pitchforks at bay.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 14:21 | 1096168 Shameful
Shameful's picture

How many really know about the Fed? Far as the mass man is concerned the Fed is another part of the gov, like say the Department of Energy.

Maybe the Fed does get picked off as the USG sinks totally into insolvency. Doesn't really matter much at that point because the Dollar will be a smoking husk. If one can run a scam for a 100 years and make a vast fortune off it, sometimes you have to let a front burn and come at it again from another angle.

But then I don't think the US will survive a collapse. I might not be the best odds maker but I'm seeing a break up of the union as the most likely outcome, closely followed by military run police state. Lucky for us the mil is so bloated and inefficient that I'm not sure it can operate in current form when collapse comes.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 09:58 | 1099209 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Break up of the union into smaller sovereigns, in all likelihood based upon traditional state boundaries, unless some other demographic factor trumps.  We will have regional robber barrons, drug cartels, trade groups...  ultimately it will be de facto feudalism.  I've heard clients from the border state the following story happened to their neighbors: Drug cartel comes to farm owner, says "we'll be purchasing this property".  Farm owner replies, "no, I don't think you understand, this is not for sale."  Cartel insists, farmer sells.  After sale, farmer gets a call, "we have your wife, daughter, parents, and siblings in custody and if you want to see them alive again, you will refund us the entire purchase price of the property."  I suspect something along these lines...

Ultimately, we will have more freedoms as a result, but we will also have less wherewithal to enjoy many of them.  If even a small contingency of states can remain with free trade and retain some semblance of a legitimate constitutional republic, then I think we will ultimately piece back the union...  if not, and if too long a time passes, then we will not.  Further, both canada and mexico need to be weary of a fragmented united states...  the union is the only thing stopping us at this point from getting a little case of the grab ass.  Especially when some dingbat robber barron has a few abrams to play with (and nukes).

Eventually, I suspect, we'll begin collective bargaining again...  which will inevitably lead to the boom/bust cycle we've come to love.  No free lunches.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 14:08 | 1096102 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

 

And the last people to touch that inflated dollar, in a desperate effort to turn it into anything more useful than that currency, are the most screwed, unless they have fireplaces.

 

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:20 | 1095863 Verstehen
Verstehen's picture

The fed will never end until you hang them all. Neo-Liberalism is an ideology. Destroying ideologies is extremely difficult. The private offshore banks have more money than all economies combined. If you try to abolish them you will end like Germany in 1918 and 1945.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:21 | 1095587 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

and the /es up 12 points.  it's all good, "really".

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:20 | 1095592 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Benocide!

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:32 | 1095651 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

i think we have a winner

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 21:11 | 1097772 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

and the losers are? ....the clowns at Elliott Wave who've been calling for a Dollar rally since 2009 and chief clown Rob Prechter called for a crash in 2010 and yes you've guessed it a Dollar rally!

So have all 'Team EW Clowns' throughout 2010 and we had Jim Martyns, EW's currency expert (clown), rushing out a special video in case the Dollar fell through the floor (it did) to cover his useless backside

Ho hum, just another day of calamity at Elliott Wave  

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:22 | 1095594 DavidC
DavidC's picture

And stocks resume their inexorable rise upwards...

DavidC

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:39 | 1095681 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Naturally, without that we have pension funding obligations which destroy any semblance of profits or recovery.

I'm still very bullish...

I think Ben must be aware that there is no more growth from bonds and real estate so this is the last chance saloon for the US economy. If stocks drop its 'Goodnight Vienna'...

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:22 | 1095880 NumberNone
NumberNone's picture

CALPERS needed over 7% return annually on its portfolio just to meet its obligations.  They've averaged 4.5% over the past decade.  No dips allowed. 

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 15:45 | 1096465 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

The Equitable Life needed 9% and they couldn't achieve that even at the height of the credit boom...

we're all toast old stick...

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:25 | 1095597 Dr. Impossible
Dr. Impossible's picture

long time reader first time poster...

Tylor...u gotta raze the bar on the entrance exam for this place...oops meant raise the bar..

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:23 | 1095614 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

C'mon now, half the fun of being in Vegas or Wal-Mart is people watching...

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:39 | 1095971 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Interesting, on your first shout out, you bumble on the host's name and make a whiney statement.....zero substance.

Welcome and try to raise the bar yourself. 

ORI

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 20:09 | 1097579 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Plase find your "Illudium Q-36 Explosive Space Modulator", and use it on the Bernank's printing press!

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:21 | 1095600 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

I wonder what Rosie is telling his subscribers these days?

https://www.gluskinsheff.com/Subscribe.aspx

 

or excerpts here

http://www.ctv.ca/generic/generated/static/business/article1954793.html

 

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 14:11 | 1096126 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

I wanna live in Vancouver. Really bad.  How's Kanuckistan on taking economic refugees from the States?

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:22 | 1095601 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

Up to now, the rise in PMs is arithmetic to the fall of the USD.  Can the geometric parabola be far behind as even the most clueless recognize the potential pain of the 2 X 4 lurking in the shadows?

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:22 | 1095602 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

gold should be doing better...its quite irritating i want this over so i know whats going on the next 40 years of my life

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:24 | 1095608 strannick
strannick's picture

Battle to the bottom.

Didja hear about the lady in Weimar Germany who went shopping and left her wheelbarrow of cash outside thinking no one would bother to steal it? She came back outside and the cash was there, but no wheelbarrow.

RIP Greenback (is that Keynes under the hood of the hangman?)

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:23 | 1095612 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

what's most disturbing about the alarming decline in the Dollar is that the majority of Americans are tragically (if not frighteningly) unaware of, not just this occurrence, but how this is impacting them in a very real and direct manner to their profound detriment. On this issue you must really stand in awe of the mainstream financial media in how effective they have been to make sure the average citizen does not ever hear about the relationship of the rising stock market to the declining dollar.

This is a tragedy of epic scale.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:27 | 1095628 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Did you forget your sarcasm symbol :) ?

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:43 | 1095702 OpenEyes
OpenEyes's picture

@alien-IQ, couldn't agree more.  This week, I mentioned to 4 co-workers that I'd just read how gasoline was actually less expensive now than in 1964, when priced in a 1964 silver quarter.  (1964 gas priced @ $.23 per gal, you'd get 2 cents change from that quarter.  Same quarter today has melt value slightly more than $6, you'd get $2 FRN's in change for that same 1964 quarter)..   One one of the 4 agreed with me and understood the difference between real and notional values.  The other three gave me blank stares that clearly conveyed that they;

a: didn't care

b: didn't understand

c: didn't want to hear it

And, all three are well educated and, otherwise, very sophisticated people.  (one of them is a lawyer, another holds an MBA)

The 'establishment' (gov't, msm, bankers, etc) have done an amazing job at removing the concept of wealth preservation, notional vs real value, and exponential functions from our collective consciousness.  

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:06 | 1095757 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

I know the feeling. I've had similar conversations with similar people...they look at me as if I had two heads with horns sticking out of them.

The most idiotic response I got was "Well if the dollar is so worthless, then why is my Apple stock still going higher, huh smart ass?"...I kid you not. This response was from a friend who earns a six digit income, has a college degree and runs a very successful business. I simply had no response to that.

By the way...another way to view that gas price analogy, which I am familiar with, is that in 1964 (and almost consistently before and after) the price of a gallon of gas has been 1/6th of an of an ounce of silver (that being the silver weight of a 1964 quarter). Today, the price of a gallon of gas is actually closer to 1/10th of an ounce of silver. If we revert to the historic price correlation, at the current price of silver, gas would be $6.33 per gallon.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 14:14 | 1096145 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

Education ain't what it used to be and costs a hundred thousand more than it should to be let out with such sloppy thinking skills..

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 20:15 | 1097599 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

What you shoulda said:  "When a ruler shrinks in size so that 1" increments become 1/4" increments, my dick would then measure 24" long -- see the problem with that?"

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 23:06 | 1098149 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

The 6th confirmed death of the dollar in the last 40yrs woe is the world.

Thru the other 5 deaths world commerce conducted in dollars totally and completely plummeted fr 72% to 65%.

 

Another way to view this is, there is nothing novel or unique to this in a recession or depression when the fed is pumping out dollars and as long as no other standard bearer pops up and money flees to the long bond when shit hits the fan,

same  dollar is dead droning will take place numerous times in the future.

 

the question is will the pack and herd animals actually recognize the mania/panic the next time.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:04 | 1095783 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

Never mind all that boring stuff if you go on Facebook you can get the music for the royal wedding . %$#@##$, sorry I just threw up, by the way I think one of the songs is entitled " Off with there heads"

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:06 | 1095784 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Your fallacy is you think they watch financial media.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:15 | 1095833 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

Everybody that watches any news whatsoever watches the financial media whether they realize it or not. How regularly does CNN show the DOW gins on their scroll at the bottom of the screen? Or how many nights go by that one of the network evening news does not mention what the market did that day? Yet...how often do they discuss the value of the dollar? All news outlets use the days market news...especially when the economy is bad because by showing that the market is rising, the uninformed masses are led to believe that that means that the economy is improving. That's why I say everybody watches the financial news...whether they realize it or not.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:36 | 1095950 velobabe
velobabe's picture

RIP, elizabeth taylor†

hugest headline on the front page of NYT. then cnn non stop coverage of this whore. it was like

michael jackson time again, bitch!

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 20:16 | 1097610 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Maybe so, but Liz was quite an actress, beautiful woman, and a Humanitarian, hence coverage of her death is well-deserved.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:25 | 1095617 Shameful
Shameful's picture

The great comedy is all most of currencies the USDX is comprised of have their own gigantic problems.  Like watching the Special Olympics.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:34 | 1095664 Reptil
Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:36 | 1095680 6_7_42
6_7_42's picture

++good

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 14:24 | 1096175 avonaltendorf
avonaltendorf's picture

shh .. don't let Trav see that

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 15:06 | 1096311 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

True enough.  Didn't see a pink-toe anywhere.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:34 | 1095652 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Euro will implode first, its already priced in. Then the flight to USD safety. Everyone has already watched this movie.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:34 | 1095654 jtmo3
jtmo3's picture

Well, the dollar is down, but I sure wouldn't call it a cremation....yet.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:46 | 1095714 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

ZH always exaggerates for dramatic effect. . .

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:52 | 1095735 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

and with two heartbeats per minute you are still technically alive...but your fate is fairly well defined is it not?

same with the dollar.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:33 | 1095655 tiger7905
tiger7905's picture

Comments on Rob Kirby's latest interview. He speculates what a bubble price for gold and silver looks like.

http://goldandsilverlinings.com/?p=334

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:35 | 1095672 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Looking at the value of the USD vs other failed fiat currencies is an exercise in futility, unless you view it as a race to zero.

DXY rising is not "dollar up", nor is DXY falling "dollar down", in absolute terms.

The dollar is down today, but versus real money - gold and silver.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:39 | 1095685 godzila
godzila's picture

good point

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:43 | 1095703 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Now the race is on and here comes The Bernank up the back stretch. The Japanese are going to the inside. The Euros are holding back, trying not to fall...

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 20:23 | 1097624 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

The race is on and it looks like Heartaches, and the Winner loses all!

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:45 | 1095709 fuu
fuu's picture

So if the dollar is dropping today, why did silver suddenly reverse off of $38.17?

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:47 | 1095711 Republican Lackey
Republican Lackey's picture

Because Bernanke isn't as stupid as people make him out to be?

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:09 | 1095804 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Must've been hard for you to stay away from his cock long enough to type that.  I commend you, Libtroll!

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:58 | 1095753 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Because now JPM is a Comex/Nymex vault and they have another way to keep their games going for a bit longer?

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:08 | 1095808 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

Blythe just taxed your profits with a raid

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:51 | 1095715 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

The only thing that matters is that savers and long term prudence is crucified.

The Federal Reserve cares not for individuals, but rather big business by bailing out wreckless failure and obscuring systemic fraud.  They are the defacto catalyst to operate above the law.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:02 | 1095775 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Nice. +1

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:48 | 1095723 LeftCoastRefugee
LeftCoastRefugee's picture

What level on the dollar does the stock market reverse the trend and consider it a negative? below .70? .60?

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:52 | 1095737 LeftCoastRefugee
LeftCoastRefugee's picture

What level on the dollar does the stock market reverse the trend and consider it a negative? below .70? .60?

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:35 | 1095943 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

that's hard to say considering it has never been below 70. In fact the only time it was in the 70 range was right before the market crashed...so perhaps that is an indication...but who knows.

The all-time low was 70.69 in March 2008.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:56 | 1095743 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

same ol'e bullshit fraud taking place n the real forms of money...

right at the close n london those bitch ass mother fuckers at JP slam it down for good measure with phony paper....just like clockworth whenever the metals are kicking ass and taking bitchez names...wont work!!!!!

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:54 | 1095745 bankonzhongguo
bankonzhongguo's picture

http://www.mrc.org/bmi/commentary/2011/Unreported_Soros_Event_Aims_to_Re...

Just to be clear, Obama - the Commander and Sheep, is on the hook to support this Soros inspired currency cabal genocide for the 2012 election.  How could anyone replace such a uncle tom when it comes to central banking and currency manipulation?

Just in the same way the US went to "war" with Libya with Congress out of town ,so too will these money worshiping creep fucks drive the dollar into the ground and then promise to liberate all of us mud people with the indefinite protection of a grand unified theory of faux-international capitalism.

Get the word out - Soros is oscar mike.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:58 | 1095749 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

duplicate

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:05 | 1095767 Buzz Fuzzel
Buzz Fuzzel's picture

?

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:02 | 1095777 Buzz Fuzzel
Buzz Fuzzel's picture

How long can this last?

Check out the one and four hour time scales. Do you notice anything peculiar?

http://www.forexdirectory.net/jpy.html

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:04 | 1095791 proptrader
proptrader's picture

Tyler, love the site- new to reading it but like the speed of news flow and enjoy the commentaries..

I would be classed in the "bear camp" (not nec. lower asset prices but bearish nonetheless) but I dont get why everyone is so bearish the Dollar here?

 

Granted I understand and agree with the logic that indefinite printing will eventually destroy the dollar and that it will eventually lose its reserve currency status but surely the path in which it is valued is not so linear. If the dollar is to lose its prominence, then that will be a mega-bearish of course but the action of which would cause large liquidations which in turn will fuel a demand for US$'s first.. also, I believe the world still needs to deleverage a helll of a lot more which again is bullish for the dollar initially since most debt is denominated in it.

 

I would follow sentiment measures more than other information sources for the bulk of my trading decisions and at the moment, I am leaning heavily to the bullish side. Does the long term chart look like a continuation pattern to the downside? you betcha... 4thwave / triangle.. whatever you want to call it.. it looks bleak.. but in my experience sentiment will prevail above other tech indications.Right now I amlong the dollar vs. Euro and Sterling- i think its gonna be winner ;-)

Just my two cents... on reading a lot of the comments im sure ill be sneered at for it!

 

All the best.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:30 | 1095917 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

One question which, I think, merits consideration is how much lower can the dollar go without having a negative impact on earnings and the overall market?

Yesterday there was a good (as usual) article by Charles Hugh Smith on that topic and I think his observations were pretty spot on.

Personally, I think we're already in a danger zone regarding the dollar value (or lack thereof).

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 22:59 | 1098161 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

One question which, I think, merits consideration is how many times have the doomsdayers declared the dollar dead only to be wrong as no other world standard bearer appeared. 

Personally I think the answer is five since Nixon.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:07 | 1095801 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

Ok.. So when ypu come to Canada this summer.. Please bring gold, silver or $CDN... Leave the toilet paper back home.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:23 | 1095881 99er
99er's picture

30 Year

Long Bond catches a bid.

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts-0

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:42 | 1095989 HedgeFundLIVE
HedgeFundLIVE's picture

using this lift in the market as a shorting oppty for sure- how can you not will all this stuff on zerohedge?: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/recent-march-rally-a-shorting-opportunity

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:52 | 1096038 Hooligan
Hooligan's picture

Nothing goes straight up or straight down forever.

 

Long UUP calls and SLV puts.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 14:32 | 1096194 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

a glance at the 10 year $DXY chart might challenge your theory that nothing goes straight down forever. In fact...the USD chart from 1913 to today might further put that theory in doubt.

Yes...there may be a nominal bump up here and there...but the overall trend has indeed been straight down.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 14:05 | 1096093 joker78160
joker78160's picture

The dollar is like any other asset. The only thing keeping it afloat is the fact that we aren't the only country with a central bank devaluing our currency. Compared to other currencies, the dollar is down. But the true value of the dollar lies in people's confidence in it. The debt of the United States far exceeds any other nation, this is the driving force behind the declining dollar. Once investors realize the USG can't pay back the debt, they will abandon treasuries and the Fed will have to inflate the money supply at a greater pace. This will devalue the dollar much faster than we are seeing now, although I think demand for US treasuries is already heading off a cliff. Weimar Germany happened because the government had to print its own money to pay for its expenditures. No one else would finance them. Once people realize that the dollar is no longer a safe asset, they will flee ever more into commodities that are limited in quantity and therefore more valuable. We are already seeing this happen, just not at an incredibly fast pace. http://common-cents-economics.blogspot.com/2011/03/case-for-inflated-oil.html

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 15:39 | 1096433 ivana
ivana's picture

I was naive still to believe that there is at least some xy% freedom in currency market.

But looking at fixed USD/JPY last few days ... hmmmmm ... think that's rigged as well.

With Treasuries slowly slowly creeping up.

Full CB control in power facilitated by operational utilities!!

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 15:43 | 1096463 kevinearick
kevinearick's picture

The Perfect Storm Algorithm: A Monetary Expansion Merry-Go-Round

GOD IS RELATIVELY COUNTER-INTUITIVE, tuning the fulcrum apparatus.

So, the program is like a merry-go-round. Once the black hole starts spinning, the only way off is to jump, redistribution. A few are intelligent enough to jump off early, causing the black hole to increase speed. As it does so, the fear level of participants increases and the only way off is to overcome their fear and jump into a nearby orbit… or go insane. It’s like entertainment sex. The participants de-sensitize themselves to each other until they go insane trying to reach orgasm (or get rich as measured by government money).

The program was built by a computer; it has no feelings. It doesn’t care whether the participants jump or not. Computer says stay on the merry-go-round, 1 or 0.

The kids can weave in and out of the Internet at will, beyond the knowledge of authority. In any game of information advantage, they win. For everyone else, the only way to win is to physically cross the artificial borders against established current to re-establish natural trade. Otherwise, they may only go insane trying to beat a stupid computer at a stupid game.

The casino is fixed, so you bet with the casino, beyond the knowledge of the casino, until it goes bust, when its chips are worthless. Everything adds up to 0, including inflation and deflation. The kids sold inflation and bought deflation just ahead of the legacy families, creating the black hole, locking the latter in it, and building the necessary thrust for the new system. Be a kid at heart (or at least be smart enough not to antagonize them).

The point of the game is to sell your gate for revenue to develop your next gate and always stay 2 steps ahead, a game in which everyone goes bankrupt playing a stupid game of chicken against themselves. The size of the black hole depends on the rate at which the proprietors steal from opensource, until an increasing threshold over time is reached, in time, and the source is reversed. It’s a one-way dc system most of the time and a two-way ac system all of the time.

You might think about time like this: your mind is like a camera, taking so many pictures per minute. Your experience of time depends upon how many frames per minute you can process effectively. As you adjust the number of frames, your experience of time changes, filtering the lies away. Different types of liars give themselves away at specific frequencies (compulsive impulsives). History is the aggregate.

I was paid $100k on $1.2M in resulting revenue, to fix elevators that the other mechanics (who were paid more) could not or would not fix, but my function is to teach your children the value of quantum physics. Firing me to temporarily keep dysfunctional cops, firefighters, teachers and doctors, to temporarily keep the entititlement checks coming, and to temporarily prop up the collapsing stock market was a poor choice, in my opinion. Telling people like me that we will never work again in the old economy is disastrous, for everyone in the dc tracks. Consider the ramifications of the example. Bet accordingly to max survival until the ignition point reaches your location.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 20:37 | 1097660 JustinObodie
JustinObodie's picture

Deleted by moi

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 22:10 | 1097663 JustinObodie
JustinObodie's picture

How much lower can the dollar go?

But we all know the answer to that:

"...on a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero"

From the horse's mouth, so to speak.

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