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Domestic Equity Fund Flows See Second Highest Inflow In Past 9 Months In Week Ended April 7
ICI reports that the depletion of money market flows, which as we have pointed out have seen outflows of over $300 billion year to date, is finally starting to force retail capitulation into domestic equities: the week of April 7 saw domestic equity mutual fund inflows of $1.9 billion, reversing the outflows of the past two weeks. At this point total domestic fund outflows for 2010 have dropped to only ($1.8) billion, which surely "justifies" the spike in the S&P from January 1. The implication is that, as we have pointed out repeatedly, the only marginal buying of US-based stocks continues to be executed primarily by Primary Dealers. We will update on Lipper/AMG data as soon as it is available.
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Fear is dead and so are the shorts.
If God did not want them to be sheared, he would not have made them sheep.
the stupid money is rushing in! i'll stay over here on the sideline. enjoy sheeple.
So if Ma and Pa are jumping in, a top maybe coming soon? (not holding my breath)
IRA money came in.
I'm set and buying vix call options, though I'm not sure on the timing (Now - November). Can we pass the 2007's highs without even uninformed people calling bullshit? What about boomers who have recooped their loses in equities, won't they move there money to fixed income?
the volatility is so low that you can just buy the vix calls far out of the money
but with an expiry that is in 2011. I could imagine that now regulators quickly
want to respond to the troubles the market has with the big investment banks.
Only this could spark volatility.
The Dow will not go above 12000 for another 7 years, that is my bet.
Bears better watch their backs.
This thing has been pinned at the highs all morning.
Intriguing, but couldn't this suggest over-confidence on VIX bearishness? Capitulation of VIX call-side buyers?
"...is finally starting to force retail capitulation into domestic equities..."
why would you say that? are you so sure the Dow will not hit 14,000 this year? you've been wrong before so many times...
The key part of that phrase is "starting to force". This process, if indeed is happening, could take quite a while, especially with the headwind psychological forces like GS fraud holding the retailer back.
That leads me to believe that this "capitulation" will be a slow affair culminating in a challenge to all time index highs before pulling back. That seems to be the course we're on.
I agree .... I think equity markets do not have anything to do with fundamentals and Greenspan is right about equity markets leading the real economy and not the other ay around.
With so much liquidity floating around and with more to come, the 2007 high is not that far away.
Tim and Geithnert will have their way and fix this mess. very good job from them. dont bet against them, you will lose.
shorters have lost their shirts. SHOULD HAVE LISTENED TO CRAMER FROM LAST YEAR!
BUY BUY BUY!
agreed, but I have no odea how to time an irrational market.
Great way to purchase that Harley...don't make your mortgage payment for 6 to 9 months and then complete the short sale and receive $1,500 from the U.S. for gas money this summer. What a system!
Thanks for the charts, RT. Some of these might almost make sense, with a lot of imagination, e.g. Joe Sixpack has jingle-mailed the house keys back to the lender and can now afford a new Harley, since he's living (temporarily) rent-free. But what about something like KRE, the regional bank ETF? Aren't they going to be looking at huge losses when their commercial real estate loans crater, right about 3, 2, 1, now? You'd never know it looking at their chart. Or take a look at VNQ, the Vanguard ETF for REIT. REIT's, for heaven's sake! Up, up, and away!
Excellent. Now that we see the first negative divergences, meaning
new highs-new lows, advancers vs. decliners and momentum not confirming
the recent market move up to new highs, the crowd is getting bullish.
Now that the retail is coming back in, and inflows from mutual funds/401ks, i expect a few more up days and then a plunge of about 5-7%. That seems to be the market's modus operandi these days.
Is the weekly positive flow to negative flow since jan normal?
Seems a bit schizo.