Don't Believe The Rally?

Leo Kolivakis's picture

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
meichou's picture

ugg boots london I saw something shocking uggs london on my way to work the other day. uggs new york While bundled in a long sleeved shirt, wool sweater and coat, with a Pashmina, hat and gloves,ugg boots london sale I saw a man with his bike a the bus stop in SANDALS. He wasn’t overly well dressed for cold weather, in jeans, t-shirt and open jacket. Now, having lived in Oregon for the past decade I have come to be aware of what “true Oregonians” consider winter attire. ugg boots london shop This primarily consists of the inbred belief that flip-flops are a necessity year round, and sweaters and umbrellas are for tourists. I do not uphold this belief.ugg boots sale london I love getting dressed up for winter, layering on leggings with my sweater dress and ugg boots new york, a sweater and a jacket, and a rotating army of scarves, hats and gloves.ugg boots london stockists I don’t enjoy being frozen, especially knowing how easy a situation that is to avoid. uggs new york sale So personally, buy ugg boots london I do not consider myself a “true Oregonian.” I like umbrellas, and only wear flip flops when it’s above 75 degrees.Based on the population of Oregon, ugg new york I’m probably in the minority. Although I have come to accept that these people are just immune to cold in a way I am not, uggs new york of sale I do still think they are crazy. I’m guessing that the good folks at UGG Australia caught wind of these people because look at what they have to offer: sandals with fleece!uggs new york on sale

cheap uggs for sale's picture

It’s a interesting news,i like it.Additionally,wellcome to my website ,here are so many UGGS On Sale such as:UGG Elsey wedge|UGG Elsey wedge black|UGG Elsey wedge chestnut|UGG Elsey wedge espresso|UGG Langley|UGG Langley black|UGG Langley chestnut|UGG Lo Pro Button|UGG Lo Pro Button black|UGG Lo Pro Button blue|UGG Lo Pro Button cream|UGG Mayfaire|UGG Mayfaire black|UGG Mayfaire chestnut|UGG Mayfaire chocolate|UGG Mayfaire sand|UGG Mayfaire red|UGG Nightfall|UGG Nightfall black|UGG Nightfall chestnut|UGG Nightfall chocolate|UGG Nightfall sand|UGG Sundance II|UGG Sundance II black|UGG Sundance II chestnut|UGG Sundance II chocolate|UGG Sundance II sand|UGG Ultimate Bind|UGG Ultimate Bind black|UGG Ultimate Bind chestnut|UGG Ultimate Bind chocolate|UGG Ultimate Bind sand|UGG Ultra Short|UGG Ultra Short chocolate|UGG Ultra Short sand|UGG Ultra Short black|UGG Ultra Tall|UGG Ultra Tall chestnut|UGG Ultra Tall sand|UGG Ultra Tall balck|UGG Ultra Tall chocolate|UGG Suede|UGG Suede black|UGG Suede chestnut|UGG Suede sand|UGG upside|UGG upside black|UGG upside chestnut|UGG upside mocha|UGG Roxy Tall|UGG Roxy Tall black|UGG Roxy Tall chestnut|UGG Roxy Tall chocolate|UGG Roxy Tall sand|UGG seline|UGG seline black|UGG seline chestnut|UGG Corinth Boots|UGG Liberty|UGG Liberty black|UGG Liberty cigar|UGG Highkoo|UGG Highkoo amber brown|UGG Highkoo espresso|UGG Highkoo grey|UGG Highkoo black|UGG Knightsbridge|UGG Knightsbridge black|UGG Knightsbridge chestnut|UGG Knightsbridge grey|UGG Knightsbridge sand|UGG Knightsbridge chocolate|UGG Adirondack|UGG Adirondack brown|UGG Adirondack chocolate|UGG Suburb Crochet|UGG Suburb Crochet black|UGG Suburb Crochet chestnut|UGG Suburb Crochet chocolate|UGG Suburb Crochet grey|UGG Suburb Crochet white|UGG Kensington|UGG Kensington black|UGG Kensington chestnut|UGG Roseberry|UGG Roseberry black|UGG Roseberry sand|UGG Gaviota|UGG Gaviota black|UGG Gaviota chestnut|UGG Gaviota chocolate|UGG Desoto|UGG Desoto black|UGG Desoto chestnut|UGG Desoto chocolate|UGG Brookfield Tall|UGG Brookfield Tall black|UGG Brookfield Tall chocolate|UGG Gissella|UGG Gissella black|UGG Gissella chestnut|UGG Gissella espresso|UGG Payton|UGG Payton black|UGG Payton chestnut|UGG Payton red|UGG Bailey Button Triplet|UGG Bailey Button Triplet black|UGG Bailey Button Triplet chestnut|UGG Bailey Button Triplet chocolate|UGG Bailey Button Triplet grey|UGG Bailey Button Triplet sand|There are so much style of cheap uggs for sale ,so once you go to my website you will be very surprise.

fredquimby's picture

I just loaded up on more silver/usd warrants last night...before all the monthly paychecks hit the market today, tomorrow and Thursday....

4w:1oz @ $0.24/warrant with strike @ $24.50 on December 17th Go silver Go!!

But I can't help feeling that EVERYONE seems to be sooooo sure that silver/gold is going up, that it makes me nervous....thank goodness for those seriously cheap under 21 puts I picked up for 0.08 a warrant last week just in case :)

And as for Leo......keep at it Leo! I love it how people get so steamed up when your pov is different to theirs...haha - Cheers!!




BigDuke6's picture

I dunno why people bag out Leo - if i'd believed his rally stuff i'd be many grand better off.

Maybe thats what cheeses off the cheese-dicks.

How far will the bernanke 'put' go, Leo?

scratch_and_sniff's picture

Joe is right, HFT's don't front run us because we are not they're clients. The exchanges do all the front running, technically. We pay for a service, and then they release information about us and what we are doing, for a fee.

Azannoth's picture

The only thing you can Buy&Hold is physical PMs  imho

TraderTimm's picture

i can't wait until the US market becomes the vacuous ping-pong playing field it deserves to be. HFT, you win - trade with each other you mother fuckers, until even the 'rebates' don't keep you afloat.

Cannibals, cannibals everywhere - and not a single human trader to hook your claws into. That is what you deserve you frickin' quant-driven market-destroying retards.

Pondmaster's picture

Do I detect a loss yesterday ?

gwar5's picture

I'm only getting into the market when insider selling hits 10,000: 1.  That's when I know I've cleared out all the suckers.

badgerman67's picture

Its all about demographics in the US.  Expect mutual fund outflows to continue as the baby boomer retail investor probably views the Japanese outcome as an upside scenario. Not having the stomach, the savings rate, and/or perhaps even life expectancy to live through another collapse in equity prices they will continue to go conservative.

Asia has gone full retard with the fixed investment.  Chinas fixed investment is what percent of GDP?  60%+.  Its everywhere.  Singapore with building boom subsidized by their 1.2% 3 year mortgages!  Thailand adding 30% to existing hotel inventory by 2012.  This is in the face of current 40% occupany rates, poltical instability, and a strengthening baht.

At the end of the day you just Buy the Chinese Solar Cos.  It has to end well for those guys. 

GoldmanSux's picture

Portfolio managers are the new retail investors, as the last 10 years has proven.

TheMonetaryRed's picture

Dear Traders, 

68% of FX volume, 53% of Stock Index volume, 44% of Interest Rate volume, 34% of Energy volume and 26% of Metals volume - all courtesy of our friendly, colocated algos here at the CME. 

You're welcome.



Team Atari 


P.S. - All your message traffic are belong to us.

Bear's picture

Where did you come up with these numbers? Can you point me to a source ... it seems like a great set of numbers to monitor.

TheMonetaryRed's picture

Dear Bear, 

Overall, 46% of CME ATS volume, 66% of message traffic are belong to our algos. 

Possible being special interest to you is 30% of volume, 66% of message traffic in gold options market for us. 

Your gold market are so small and delicious. 



Team Atari. 


P.S. - We win. 

P.P.S. -

twittering as stocktradr's picture

"But what's the best way to beat high frequency trading?"

"You're never going to beat the computers day trading but you can make money in these markets by understanding the weakness of these HFT platforms."

"My advice is to add to your positions on those dips and just hold on."

"If you get cute, placing tight stop losses, you're going get burned."

"Just like anything else, computers have advantages and disadvantages."

"What worries me more is what Saluzzi says on how volatility is impacting the IPO market. But the facts don't back up his claims."

"In fact, according to Renaissance Capital, $23 billion was raised in the global IPO market last week, making it the biggest week this year and signaling a revival in investor interest for this class of equities:"

"As for the economy, don't just focus on the US. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis released its world trade report on Monday, showing world trade up 1.5% month-on-month in August and world industrial production up 0.2%:"

"There is a lot of slack in the US economy, but things are slowly shifting."

"As for the rally, there is plenty of liquidity to propel shares much higher."

"While I understand asset managers who are skeptical, I fear they will be left in the dust when the markets start going parabolic."

"And whether or not you believe in the rally, it's irrelevant. What is relevant is how long can you afford to underperform the markets before you lose your job?"

sound like statements and advice from a talking head on one of those tv financial shows.

what does: the fed, Bernake, the US dollar, economic data, high frequency trading, "beat the computers," "understanding the weakness of these HFT platforms,"  "volatility," "the facts," " what Saluzzi says,"  "according to Renaissance Capital," "world trade up 1.5% month-on-month in August," "slack in the US economy," "plenty of liquidity," " going parabolic," ..., have to do with a trader making money?

answer: "... it's irrelevant."
"What is relevant is" knowing how to trade.

a trader trading a complete trading plan continuously makes more money than one loses under any market conditions.

twittering as stocktradr

Chris88's picture

Why do they still let this imbecile write articles for this site?

russki standart's picture
Be nice. I may not agree but at least Leo provides a counterbalance to the relenting negativity that pervades ZH. If nothing else, his comments compel me to review my current views. Like it or not, the S&P is  well above where I expected it  to be 6 months ago
Bear's picture

Come on Chris ... We love Leo ... we need to be challenged at every point to stay vigilant. If we just hear what we want to hear (even though it may be the truth), we miss the opportunity to think through our positions carefully.  

cocoablini's picture

Governments, banks and players all get to trade in their worthless trash for cash. We all think that there is a real profit motive in the stock market now, but there isn't. The stock market is operating like USGovernment. That is to say, there isn't a profit motive and " investors" can continue to lose money because there is an endless pool of taxpayer trash to pull from. If I could trade in a polished turd for cash( agency debt, MBS, treasuries) then I would do anything the cash provider told me to do. Primaries are asked to buy the stock market after POMO because holding Apple is better than holding crap. Even if apple loses a 100 bucks a share, it's better than Zero, which is what their old assets are worth. Until the FED and US government threatens bonuses, salaries and assets the banks will do whatever it takes to keep the pyramid scheme from inversion. So yes, the stock market is going to 20,000 DOW because that's the easiest asset to control now.

Hugh_Jorgan's picture

I'm bullish on the "4Gs" asset class over the next 24 - 48 mos. Gold, Guns, God and Grub. IMHO, any balanced portfolio will include a sizable investment in each.

Or, you could dump eveything into the perpetual upward spiral of Apple, Netfix and Amazon? Man, these f-ing stocks are on fire! Sweet!


Buttcathead's picture

 There is a lot of slack in the US economy, but things are slowly shifting.  LOL  they are shifting...  into reverse.  what a dumb ass

Leo Kolivakis's picture

Keep driving forward looking in your rear view mirror! LOL!

RobotTrader's picture

The fact that the market is going up in the face of such horrid fundmentals and constant outflows can only be interpreted as bullish.


Pondmaster's picture

"And.. you can always stay out of the market.  $80B outflows and huge insider selling - seems tremendously unsteady."

And yet it is being said that bullish indicators are all high .. so who's bullish ? The algorithms ?

I prefer an averaged  NYSE Hi/Lo ratio and Adv/ Dec ratio  - lots o noise from the talkers - technicals are everything .


Bear's picture

There is no bigger bear on this site, but I am wondering just what might happen if SP advances above 1210? I watch the market 12 hours a day and I have for 10 years and I have never seen such resiliency. Each piece of bad news today would have created an avalanche in yesteryear. And any good news is usually bogus. Can you imagine 'Forclosuregate' five years ago?

But never before have so many dollars been pumped into the market at just the right time. On April 26, SPY rose to 122.12 when it looked like a recovery could actually be in the making. A lot has happened since then and market players sentiment is decidedly more negative, so if we come back to this level a logical conclusion one can draw is that the rally may continue.

With every stock and most commodities in lock step with ES, the next correction will probably be just that ... a correction with major volatility. The best play is buy VXX at 10.80 when SPY hits 121.50 

MGA_1's picture

And.. you can always stay out of the market.  $80B outflows and huge insider selling - seems tremendously unsteady.

Peak Everything's picture

I get how the fed does stealth monetization but its still not clear in my mind how they channel free money into propping the market. Would someone please be kind enough to explain this flow in a couple sentences?

blunderdog's picture

Zero interest rate short-term lending rate means big banks can gamble on someone else's dime at no cost.  If someone (or someTHING) thinks there's a penny or two to made on a trade and just happens to have a few million in "liquidity" sitting around, there's a good chance to capitalize on a bit more money currently invested by any carbon-based traders.

This "feature" of the current market environment wouldn't be inherently bullish, though.  It could go either way.

MGA_1's picture

There are articles on the ZH discussing this issue, but seems to resolve around POMO.  The fed buys treasuries from the primary dealers (JPM, goldman, etc.) who then put the money into the market.

traderjoe's picture

Leo, the choice of selective metrics. Trade was up, from a downwardly revised 1.0% decline the month before. 'Momentum' is slowing. And are these inflation-adjusted? Peddle your "recovery" somewhere else...

From your quoted report:

Based on preliminary data, in August world trade volume was up by 1.5% from the previous month, following a downwardly revised decrease of 1.0% in July. In most parts of the world, import volumes rose significantly. On the export side, emerging economies outperformed advanced economies, the Euro Area being the only one of three major blocks to achieve positive export growth. In Japan, both import and export volume declined substantially.

Monthly trade figures are volatile and focus on ‘momentum’ is therefore preferable.1 At 1.9%, momentum remains positive in August. It has been gradually decreasing since January 2010 however.



sushi's picture

What is interesting are the comments to a prior ZH story (Oct 24th??) on domestic inflation. All the comments described reduced package size / quantity plus a price increase. And this attempt to maintain margins is taking place before any big jump in commodity prices.


So what happens when we do see a rise in input prices?

Jake3463's picture

You have to pick an asset class to go into, Bernake is going to destroy the US dollar if you don't so your choice is to go out and buy paper after the bankers have pumped it up and are looking for the fool to buy it from the or to hold cash and watch the value of that hit the shitter.



MarketTruth's picture

Speaking of Bernanke, remember ZH'ers he said he will keep the stock market propped up at all costs. The Bernanke PUT is 'baked in the cake'.