This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Don't Try This At Home Kids - EUR Traders Holding On For Dear Life As FX Vol At Never Before Seen Levels
More flags, more fun - 500 billion flags! A 50 pip move in an FX pair in a week is big. A 50 pip move in an FX pair in a minute is a several hundred sigma event. As all correlation algos are near unity, we believe the risk of Thursday's 2:40 pm festivities to recur in the afterhours session (either up or down) is frighteningly high.
»
- 15687 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Fuck yeah!
Could it be that the volatilty on Thursday could have been exploited to refinance short term treasury debt ? TBT & TBF also made some phenomenal moves during the the 25 minutes !! Any way to explore that angle ?
Will it blend... THAT is the question folks
LOL!!!!!
+1
BS to begin frantically pushing buttons on his Nintendo controller....NOW!
I wonder if he knows the cheat code for invincibility.
>open_consoleapp
>do_gods_work_on
>close_consoleapp
In the eternal words of Major Kong ...WAAAAAHHHOOOO
For the record, Asia never has it right so I would not hold this as a permanent direction for the day. After all, most traders consider Sunday nights as the Japanese housewife time to trade. However, I agree that something will happen, either massive up or down. $500B Euros is not enough and may signal that this problem was way bigger than most thought. Plus, this package is inflationary which means a weaker Euro. The only way to defend, besides direct buying, is higher interest rates... that ain't gonna happen.
eur500bn is enough for southern europe. And i am not sure how many tokyo housewives are up trading at 6.30am ..... just cover your short and sleep comfortably :-)
And as Japanese housewives all know, this quick spurt is another case of premature ejaculation.
Plus, this package is inflationary which means a weaker Euro.
True, but the flip side is now the gun is clearly to the head of the productive, industrious German tax payer. 'hand over your wealth or face the chaos'. Modern Germans hate chaos.
Will the German pols fry up their own people like their American counter parts? Will they get away with it?
GO LONG! ES_F LOCK LIMIT UP. INFLATE THIS MOTHA
Let's see if I'm reading my screen correctly. Euro is showing 1.29 off the 1.27 open. Granted it is thin right now. Add in the fact that the EU is about to guarantee that they will print 500 billion Euros for the party and we're supposed to believe that inflationary reactions are good for a currency? By this logic the USDX should be at 130.
Correction. Since I typed that, it's now 600 billion Euro.
EU seeks 600-billion-euro crisis package-EU sources
Correction 3.0: EU Crafts $962 Billion Show of Force to Halt Crisis (Update2)http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ap50DW8IqhBo&pos=1
$962 billion from the EU and the world
$1 trillion from the Fed
To buy and hold what? Oh yeah, mortgages on Greek outhouses for goats.
Freaking wonderful. About the same as the paper Fannie holds on 1/1/1 homes (1 bed/1bath/1crack room) for $415K in Compton, CA.
Shuffle those deck chairs baby - Me, I'm heading for the life boat dressed in Drag
LOL!
Wonder how these guys are doing???
LOL...
Numba one, GI. LOL
Best photo collage EVER!!
+1000!
+100 near perfect mix of irony, wit, simplicity and truth. Bravo!
Robo,
Do you think we are going to see more garbage collecting or will the truck be heading to the dump early tomorrow?
Funniest thing I've seen all day - cheers
I'll be keeping an eye out to make sure your wildebeest are heading from right to left come the next round of FED monetization ....
Did I say monetization? Sorry, I meant 'loans' which will be paid back when we 'grow' our way out of this mess.</sarcasm_off>
that explains all
A picture is worth a thousand words...
oh my, futures don't look so good...
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM
those are fridays close.
my bad -
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html
looks even better...
Aren't those the close of after-hours trading on Friday?
you are correct - was going by 'updated' time in the upper right - still learning this stuff and obviously have a way to go.
'don't try this at home' indeed.
That last link said now it was $645 Euros. I guess it will be whatever they want it to be when they want it to be.
Futures open well up kiddo ... e-mini at 1123 up about 1.5% from Friday's close.
Check your post facts before putting them here. The world has enough disinformation.
You're bad alright.
Our friend the Sunday evening doom-postponing futures manipulator is back for more.
That should give us a nice price to short from.
Holy crap - up 221 now. Smells a little... desperate.*
*to us lowly uninitiated futures-noobs, anyway...
Yep, crazy gyrations in currency swings, and speculation in lots of bank stock, set up plenty of the algo trades - machines going against machines. The question is whether the e-exchanges will step back, like they did last Thursday, and enable price discovery to plunge (or soar) without pauses. The triggers are all there for Thursdays type moments to occur again - only this time it could really go haywire across move markets and instruments.
Be careful in the days ahead. Nothing has actually been done to prevent a recur.
I have been busy at the ATMs this weekend and have lots of cash on hand.
When does the nikei opens?
Only one thing matters. Rational theory of expectations states there are entirely too many market destroying variables. Risk off and markets down
Agreed. We may get a bounce as ingrained dip buyers thing that they are on to the next "generational" buy opportunity and weak bears get spooked or in a profit-taking mood. It will be interesting to see whether the big boys wait for things to appear to calm down a bit before heading for the exits. If not, it could get ugly from the start.
Yup. Famous last words "Look ma no hands!".
The past year I have always thought that one day the markets simply would not comeback and all the conditioning of the bulls to hold and buy dip traders would be their undoing and it would be so violent they would dare not question the Fair Value Terminator that is always looking for Sarah Connor (Fair Value).
"The Free market is out there. It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until supply and demand meet"
I posted that somewhere on here last week but was not expecting him to come bashing through the walls days later.
Aside from the liquidity and confidence issues reminiscent of 2008, and the tendency of market participants to react more quickly when an event comes along that bears an uncanny resemblence to an earlier fiasco, the banks (and therefore the markets) will not find comfort in prior welcoming arms.
The instinct towards self-preservation runs incredibly deep in our current batch of politicians. They will quickly turn and bite the hands that used to so generously feed them if they think it will improve their chances at staying in office. As more incumbents bite the dust at the primary level, and with Germany's latest no-confidence vote on the EU bailout, politicians are taking notice. Big banks, a major source of market stability (illusory or otherwise), will not have very many incentives to continue their effort. In fact, their agenda may benefit from just the opposite. Rough seas ahead.
Just to let you know...I am stealing that now.
“We are going to defend the euro,” Spanish Economy Minister Elena Salgado told reporters as she arrived to chair today’s Brussels meeting. “We think we have a duty for more stability for our currency. We will do whatever is necessary.”
“In the night, when the markets are opening, we cannot afford a disappointment,” said Finance Minister Anders Borg of Sweden, one of 11 EU nations not in the euro. “We now see herd behavior in the markets that are really pack behavior, wolfpack behavior.”
Why not just write the cheque out to GS ? I mean George Soros, of course, past master at taking money off sovereigns who refuse to accept reality...
GOLD 05/09/2010 18:28 -9.50 -0.79%
Silver 05/09/2010 18:28 -0.03 -0.16%
$1,199.50 with an up move.... hmmm. Now back to $1,200.00
Bears watching.
-0.79% is a blip. Wake me when we see a $25 dip.
I concur.
I'll predict this: get ready for some volatility this week
Increasing volatility in various markets is akin to the Delirium Tremens an alcohol addict experiences before death.
Either that or he/she sees the light and stops doing that crazy crap.
Trust me on this.
I would opt for the death outcome in this case, however. The markets have hit bottom, but they found that it had a trap door in it.
So by any non logical methods, on open the punters are going to 'buy' into this huge markup at open because they are printing more money and taking junk for the paper.
Oh yessss, give me your money.... give me your money, here free money...
TD your EURJPY post was right on, but what do you mean here 'A 50 pip move in an FX pair in a week is big.'
Id say 50pip daily moves are just about right regarding vol...granted these are minutes we're talking about here.
"The Free market is out there. It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with.
It doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until
supply and demand meet"
I don't believe the Free Market is a day trader.
Janis Joplin said, "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose"
Actually, Rhodes Scholar, Kris Kristofferson, said it. Janis just sang it.
Wasn't that more along the lines of "The Terminator"?
UMMMM yeah..... how long do you think politicians would last in their jobs if Deutshe Bank went under because of their exposure to Southern Europe. People are quick to forget and not think that they themselves are depositors in addittion to being taxpayers so the taxpayers are actually saving themselves... but off-course everyone that has read the cover of a Hayek book knows all there is to know about fractional reserve banking and keeps their money in gold coins, has a farm in which to grow their own food, can defend themselves and their families from marauding groups of pillagers and makes enough money to buy their house w/ o a mortgage by selling the "extra" groceries from the farm. Can we get realistic please.
I've uploaded a DOW chart.
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-0
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
so is blatently spamming every post here with links to your own blog actually ok here then?
Highly volitile markets. What happened to a nice steady income stream say 8-10%,
now you get zero percent and have to trade currency swaps or es contracts intraday
for income lol.. this is what the Fed has created.
Looks like a good day on the stream. Bens Market is schitzoid.
Tod do . Buy physical, do some fishing.
Fishing is much more than fish. It is the great occasion when we may return to the fine simplicity of our forefathers.
Herbert Hoover