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The Double Dip In Builder Confidence Is Here
The NAHB reported its December housing market index, which came in at 15, missing expectations of a rebound from November's reading of 16, and is now at the low levels last seen in June. The double dip, at least in perceptions of what is happening to the housing market is here, and follows the recent housing starts inflection point.
Additionally, builder confidence for current sales also slipped by a point to 15, even as optimism for sales in the next 6 months held at 26. Lastly, the measure of traffic from prospective buyers declined one point to 12, the lowest level since the market bottom in March 2009.
NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe tried to bring some glimmer of hope to the most recent downward inflection point:
Home buying conditions have rarely been as good as they are right now, but consumers are still waiting to see significant positive signs of improvement in employment and confidence, and this is slowing buyers' return to the market.
A way to visualize hope is the ratio of future expectations by the present.
As a reminder: from the NAHB, any reading below 50 demonstrates that more builders view sales conditions as poor... They should just wait until the Fed ends the MBS portion of QE and mortgage rates start their inevitable track higher.
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why even bother doing these polls ? The Fed is going to solve all our problems once and for all.
What a surprise, there is only 7 years of shadow inventory out there, what's not to be optimistic about?
"Buy, Buy, Buy!" Illuminist hogwash.
They want you in the house when the quake hits. To kill you. Remember dat!
No they want to keep moving you in the house and kicking you out as a way to lay down the reinforcement pathways that they own everything. Or else people will just load guns and assert ownership the good old military way.
No, the house was built on sand. And they have an earthquake machine (metaphore). It is called the printing press. The are using it now. Pretty soon houses will be worth pennies (litterally). Oh, and as far as guns go, they are all registered. They will take them when the time comes. It will be for your safety (hand waves in front of your face, eyes do not blink). For your safety.
Not all gun owners have registered guns. ;)
Maybe Ive seen Red Dawn too many times but I never have never will buy a gun legitimately.
Ignore the needs of the poor. Stick them in prisons. Damage them psychologically get them involved in a race war mentality get them to generate and accept racial divisive energy as a way to divide and conquer to avoid them focusing on the real power that abused them. Allow people to bear false witness by carefully controlling circumstances and cutting and piecing statements and ideas and ideologies in just the right way to make them lie just is done here on earth. You have a powerful core that is able to avoid confronting it's own responsabilities by isolating internalizing and refocusing. Flood everyone with the focus of trying to make something that wont work workable, providing false saviors with false solutions, put on a show to make it "appear" to work now and then and you've pretty much got God's plan.
They are trying to put an end to that practice as well, did you hear about the Austin gun show. Some of Alex Jones' stuff is a bit out there, but this seems legit, as he did interview the head of the show.
http://www.prisonplanet.com/texas-gun-shows-organizer-targeted-by-the-at...
Brilliant use of deception. Enforce the law like you have the autority to do it once enough people comply claim the authority for real. Perfect adaptation of our "well this shit worked last time" based law system. Twinkie defense for everyone and the donut was asking for me to fuck it because it had a hole offense for everyone else.
Do it like the Russians did. Run along the side of someone that does until he goes down in gunfire. Then you take his place and keep on firing.
There is no logical reason why anyone is building a new house in this current environment with millions of empty, available homes on the market for below there build cost.
Home building = dead for at least 2-3 years
Well if you look at the poor quality of inventory available in the price range of most buyers it's easy to see why a builder offering discounts on a new energy efficient home might be more attractive.
I guess that depends on where you live. In my area, what I see is housing flying off the market at a rediculous pace, for those below the FHA conforming loan limits. And this is with a shadow inventory of 1 to 5 times the number of resale houses for sale.
Go figure. I can't, other than it's drawing the last suckers into the game.
Not sure about that, given the increase in raw materials cost, it would probably be cheaper to renovate an existing home.
I think if the government ever forced the banks to liquidate their default inventory, there would be a boom in renovations (which are included in residential real estate investment stats) as neglected houses are put into stronger hands and fixed up.
The government is really fucking this up but not allowing the market to clear.
Of course market clearing means all those second liens WFC holds would be worthless...
Housing was the great consumption machine. This is a Depression its Structural. Consumption was based on Housing which was based on easy credit.
Finally folks realizing monopoly media TV
touts can take life savings away when people
ignore their own common sense. It took US
until 1932 to realize we were in Depression.
Sometime in 2010...
http://www.jubileeprosperity.com/
I think there will be a coming fundamental shift in housing, already starting probably. Relocating closer to jobs I think entails a future in homebuilding, or at least renovating post-world war suburbs that are usually closer in. However, the tract housing in the exurbs model is as good as dead long term.
virgilcaine,
I agree, this is structural.
Three choices, inflation, deflation or stagflation - two of thos do not augur well for the stock markets!
I've got a friend (who trades) who described me the other day as a permanent bear...I told him I'm bullish on Gold...
Even if we repeat the Japanese experience in terms of the stock market we could see S&P down under 400, Dow under 3500 and FTSE under under 2000 - it may take a while but even so, sobering.
DavidC
Inflation is not necessarily good for the stock market.
Two of those are good for most commodities though.
LEN Up
Oh yeah. And this is just residential housing. Wait til the CRE market implodes in a big way soon. More fuel to the fire. I just wonder if its going to be a wet log that takes a long time to get through, or a bunch of marshmallows that toast up in flames and then go to a charcoal husk that you throw away in disgust.
Hey! I like charcoal husks. The marshmallow inside is nice and gooey.
I'm in the market to buy a house. I want state of the art energy tech. I want state of the art water tech (e.g. gray water system to reuse shower/sink/washing machine water for outdoor irrigation) because I live in a desert. I want state of the art soy spray foam insulation so that I have tiny electric bills. I renovated a house with soy spray foam insulation and dropped the electric bill 90%. This stuff is unbelievable. Give me SERIOUS home innovation that saves me SERIOUS money. I'll buy.
http://www.quietrevolution.co.uk/video/qr5v1-2/video-clip11.htm