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Double Dip Harbinger? Initial Claims Deterioration At 480,000 On 455,000 Expectation
Initial claims just made a negative U-turn and posted their first weekly increase since the beneficial inflection point. After new home sales and NAHB, is the initial claims double dip next? This week's number of 480,000 was 25,000 worse than expected, and 8,000 thousand worse than last week's 472,000. The 4-week average rose to 11,750 to 468,750. According to the Labor Department this was a straightforward report with "nothing unusual" and no states estimated. Unadjusted claims rose 28,234 to 530,405. Continuing claims increased by 2,000 on a SA basis, to 4.6 million and by 62,784 NSA to 5.7 million. EUCs surged once again to 281,442 for a new total of 5,632,219. Extended benefits claims fell 39,129 to 222,833 as ever increasing numbers of people roll off extended benefit eligibility.
The spread between the Seasonally Adjusted and Non-Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate continues to be high, and after tightening to a "mere" 80 bps, it is again starting to leak, hitting 90 on January 30.
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Clearly "unexpected" - according to al-Reuters, at least.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100204/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_jobless_claims;...
The number of newly laid-off workers filing initial claims for jobless benefits rose unexpectedly last week...
The initial claims would had been ~20,000 higher if California hadn't gone to a shorter work week and reduced its capacity to process claims.
"...as ever increasing numbers of people dropp off the extended UC roles."
This is when it gets really ugly. here comes the deflationary environment we avoided earlier. Must be time to give the TBTF banks some more cash
They missed the opportunity to get the banks off the public teat last year while trying to re-inflate the balloon. Now they have no choice but give them more money. They borrowed public funds and instead of setting aside reserves they either bet the farm on trading positions or sold more stock to pay it back - or both.
This should spook the herd.
You guys are just looking at the facts. I'm waiting for the WH spin before I accept anything. Where is Romer to straighten this all out for us?
Rahm fully in control of this...higher claims and a bad NFP number tomorrow will help fund the Dems mid term relection campaign fund known as the Jobs Bill...never waste the opportunity to create a crisis....
I'm still waiting to see what they do with the balance of the stimulus that hasn't been spent yet. It's supposed to roll out as the election cycle heats up.
At this point it's probably not going to do much--even administration officials have said that most of the benefit of the stimulus has already occured (though, to be fair, lying to hedge on future events is rapidly becoming a hallmark of these people).
Quite a few of the "stimulus" projects that had all those silly ARRA signs had already been in progress, which is yet another example of the states using the money to shore up their overdrawn budgets. Not exactly a case where "most of the money" would go to the private sector, as Obama claimed earlier in 2009.
I suspected that the administration was holding out most of the spending to align with the election cycle, but it appears they may have waited too long to put it into play. Time will tell if they ended up being too clever for their own good, I suppose.
Is it not due to the people sitting on the sideline (demotivated) joining back the workforce ? If you disagree, could you please explain why not ?
Normally people that have families/obligations don't just simply get ((demotivated)) and stop looking for work. If the jobs were available they would not be demotivated on the sidelines.
Now I will grant you that while so much government assistance is being given out, that if can remove some of the motivation for someone to actively look for a job. It also can cause people to pass up jobs that they may not desire and try and wait for one they do want.
Again, the amount of government assistance has shielded people from the type of scenario like that of the Great Depression. Once you or your family starts to go hungry, you will jump at any job opportunity that presents itself.
The negative to this is when people just get used to living on the lower amount offered by the governmental dole. Then they begin to loose all motivation to get out and make a living for themselves. There may be some people that are already at this point, which your theory would be correct. I just don't think the majority are there yet.
it might not be the majority but I think the portion that's learned to exist on the govt. dole at that reduced level is pretty significant.
Gonna have to tweek that algorythm. It's not printing the right truth.
WH is going to increase US Govt payteat to record 2.15 million, that's the substance of their entire jobs program. So, there! They are creating jobs! Next, Obrother will get tough with small business to step up and do their "fair share"... ie, take advantage of the new hire tax credit or else. Watch for some new big stick behind this miniature carrot.
I have NEVER seen so many anti-business policies. No wonder business owners are hunkered down.
Based on this report we can expect the "rational" market to skyrocket, right?
Is this more worse or less worse?
less more worse than the less bad previous lower expectations..
so overall its pretty postive. This is just a dip, so a great opportunity to: BUY BUY BUY!!!
You can fool all of the people some of the time, and you can fool some of the people all of the time, but you can't fool all of the people in the Summertime.
Tyler do your figures include the redundancies caused by the new Toyota hangover ? Temp friend of mine is getting awfully anxious lately !!! He is on the edge of foreclosing so an imminent layoff would imply a certain foreclosure. And I thought we were out of the woods.....
Well, fancy that. While this was completely unexpected (MSM), it is a straightforward report with "nothing unusual" (Labor Dep't.).
I guess I don't really have a comment. Time was, I would have considered this weird. But now I thnk I'll just freshen up my coffee and eat a little more melon and keep doing what I was doing. Do I have a choice?
The only thing that will save us and prevent dissent are banks ring worthless and all those homes being 75% cheaper.
Mark it zero let's start again.
When they figure out the plan has not worked they will abort it with authority and do anything to quell the rebellion.
a bank with no deposits cannot satisfy reserves nor can it lend.
When Black Friday comes...
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Are these economic pundits so out of touch with America that they view today's number as a surprise. Ask any small businessman how is your business? Are you hiring or firing? The answers are the same universally. Business is down 15 to 25 percent and we are firing. I have been asking these questions for the past 12 months and there has been no change in the answers.
Are these economic pundits so out of touch with America that they view today's number as a surprise. Ask any small businessman how is your business? Are you hiring or firing? The answers are the same universally. Business is down 15 to 25 percent and we are firing. I have been asking these questions for the past 12 months and there has been no change in the answers.
I think a lot of the pundits caught off guard by this, or forecasting any kind of meaningful job growth (regular ZH contributor comes to mind) are actually falling victim to placing too much weight on reports/statistics and not enough weight on empirical evidence/boots on the ground/what can I see/hear with my own eyes/ears.