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Double Dip Picking Up: Jobless Claims Spike To 472,000, On Expectations Of 455,000

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Jobless claims were a disaster, coming in at 472k, on expectations of 455k. Prior was revised, surprise, surprise, higher to 459k from 457k. What is scariest is that between extended benefits and EUC, now that Congress has turned off the perpetual insurance spigot for the unemployed, dropped by -158,155 and -217,513. This is almost half a million people who just lost their weekly governmental stipend to buy Apple's latest app, iTimberrr. Full report here. RIP Recovery: the economy has now entered the "total freefall" area. And in the meantime, the 2.90% on the 10 year is now implying the FV of the S&P just dropped by another 8 points to about 740. And as a reminder, Goldman's NFP expectation for tomorrow is -100,000.

Here is Goldman's Sven Jari Stehn explaining why tomorrow's NFP number will be a catastrophe:

The key to the June employment report is the “Census displacement” effect—the extent to which the increase in Census workers in May reduced private sector payrolls and the reduction of Census workers in June will add to private sector payrolls.  A simple model shows that this effect has been sizable in the past, implying that private hiring may be boosted by around 100,000 in June. Taking into account the unusually high unemployment rate, however, suggests that the effect will be more muted at 50,000. Given the limited number of Census hiring periods, however, these estimates are surrounded by considerable uncertainty.
 
Although the ADP employment report came in below consensus expectations, our forecast remains that private payrolls grew 150,000 in June.  Our forecast for the overall change in nonfarm payrolls is -100,000, with Census payrolls falling 230,000 and other government payrolls down 20,000
 
Following May’s disappointing private-sector payroll reading and recent signs of weakness in other parts of the economy, this Friday’s employment report will provide an important gauge on the robustness of the recovery underway.
 
A key question surrounding Friday’s release is whether there has been a “Census displacement” effect. Citing the disappointing private payroll figure in the peak month of Census hiring in May, a number of analysts have suggested that Census hiring might have displaced private hiring. Given that Census payrolls probably dropped by around 230,000, this effect would suggest a considerable snapback in private hiring in June.
 
We take the following approach to test the “displacement” hypothesis. We explain changes in private sector payrolls with lagged private sector payroll changes, initial unemployment claims, the change in continuing claims, and Census payroll changes.  Our model covers four decennial Censuses—1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010. As data on Census hiring is only available from 1990, we proxy for Census hiring in 1980 using the change in federal government payrolls excluding the postal service. To account for a growing labor force, we scale these variables by the size of the labor force.
 
Our findings can be summarized as follows:
 

  • Census hiring has indeed displaced private hiring…We find that private sector hiring was reduced by 5,000 for every 10,000 of Census hiring in the past. At face value, this would suggest that private sector hiring in May was held down by around 200,000 and that private hiring in June should be boosted by around 100,000.
  •  …but the extent depends on the unemployment rate. A key problem with this analysis is that unemployment is much higher today than it was during the last three Census hiring periods. Thus, it is somewhat less likely that Census labor demand has constrained the availability of labor for private-sector employers. To adjust for this, we add the interaction of Census hiring and the “unemployment gap”—the difference between the unemployment rate and the estimated sustainable rate—as an additional explanatory variable to the model. As expected, this interaction term has a significantly positive effect, suggesting that the displacement effect diminishes as unemployment rises. At the current unemployment gap of 4.7% the model suggests that 10,000 of Census hiring would reduce private hiring by only about half the “normal” effect. This model therefore suggests that Census hiring in May subtracted around 100,000 from private hiring and that we could expect the reduction of Census workers in June to add 50,000 workers to private payrolls.

 
Although the data flow since publication of our preliminary estimate has been on the weaker side, we have not changed our payrolls forecast.  The ADP report on private-sector payrolls rose by just 13k in June, coming in below the 60k consensus expectation. However, while the ADP report provided an accurate early indication of the weak private payroll release in May, it has generally tended to underestimate private hiring—especially in March and April of this year. Furthermore, the ADP report combines payroll data from ADP with other data—such as initial claims and lagged payrolls—to forecast the change in private-sector payrolls. As a result, a significant part of the low ADP reading is likely to be due to weak private payrolls in May and stubbornly high claims, rather than independent information suggesting weakness of private hiring in June. We therefore continue to project that total nonfarm payrolls fell 100,000 in June, with a 150,000 gain in the private sector, a 230,000 drop in Census payrolls, and a 20,000 drop in other government payrolls.
 
Sven Jari Stehn

 


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Thu, 07/01/2010 - 08:43 | Link to Comment homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

My job at the nuclear factory is safe for now but please teach me to hit the "any" key..!

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:44 | Link to Comment Hungry For Knowledge
Hungry For Knowledge's picture

Goldman's 150,000 positive number is really only the bogus "birth/death" model increase, which assumes that "magically" 150,000 jobs "born" in June.  Know anyone who is building a business?  Me either. 

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 10:15 | Link to Comment traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

The Birth/Death model is a complete absurdity. Not only are those businesses not being born (that's part two of the model), but if they call a business and there's no response, they still count the jobs as of the last survey. So, even if the business closes, the jobs are still counted. And while you can snicker at the B/D adds from the birth part on the BLS website (they only present non-season numbers, so you can't add them to the seasonal headline), there's no way to tell what the deaths assumed away are. Even after the massive benchmark revisions, they actually amped up the B/D for 2010 v. 2009. 

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 10:22 | Link to Comment MilleniumJane
MilleniumJane's picture

Heh...in the town I live in, small businesses are dropping like flies.  I know of one that has been changed to an eaterie and the rest are sitting vacant.  Some of the landlords are even offering free rent for 3 months just to get someone in.  These are desperate times.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 14:14 | Link to Comment Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

mmmm doughnut

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 08:47 | Link to Comment cainhoy
cainhoy's picture

this will be juicy! is the balloon finally going up on this disgusting cesspool of a society? I hesitate to use the word "civilization".

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 08:51 | Link to Comment LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

The sign of a civilized society is its LACK of laws, as a CIVILIZED people require very few laws because they are INHERENTLY civilized.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 08:57 | Link to Comment overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

The legal mafia, Judges and Lawyers and ahh hemmm the congress..strongly disagree..more laws = more criminals = more trials = more jails and police.. we are in the grips of a legalized police state (no pun intended)

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 14:17 | Link to Comment Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

Wait until they completely privative "corrections".

"Well Shmocko, you are eligible for parole but quite frankley we need the revenue next year. Since they legalized drugs, we really need the headcount."

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:00 | Link to Comment Paladin en passant
Paladin en passant's picture

A slight correction, the sign of a civilized Government is a lack of laws because they respect the rights of their employer-citizens.

We have a federal government that regulates everything down to the size of your toothbrush and the types of trees that are permitted to be planted on the sides of the roads.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:10 | Link to Comment LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

A civilized society requires NO/LITTLE government, as it regulates itself.  A civilized society is an intelligent and educated people. Such people will not have nor tolerate an oppressive government.  If America was truly such a society WaShitOn would have 200,000,000+ at its doorstep to take it down.

Just try having an intelligent/educated discussion with an American about contemporary America. The normal response is either anger or a blank stare.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:18 | Link to Comment Paladin en passant
Paladin en passant's picture

Wait till November.  We're a civilized people taken advantage of by our government. We don't riot against the government generally, but we do throw the bums out. We've already forced the resignations (i.e. not running again) of many long-term congressmen.  We may be slow to anger, but when we're aroused, we clean house.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:32 | Link to Comment LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

I am watching for A FALSE FLAG EVENT sometime prior to the November elections.

We shall see...

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 14:14 | Link to Comment Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

Agreed, just a matter of time.

By November "coalition" forces will occupy Iran as well.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 14:43 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

That is a common meme as we near every election cycle.  It means that the prognosticator is suffering from a lack of knowledge about the current events cycles.  Nature abhors a vacuum, as does the human mind.  When we don't know, we make up stuff or fabricate possibilities based upon factors over which we have no control.  That lays the blame at the feet of others.  The more unstable, unpredictable, and unsavory events appear, the more outlandish the predictions become -- and the more mysterious the perpetrators.

But, you could also be right.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:44 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Paladin en passant

"We don't riot against the government generally, but we do throw the bums out. We've already forced the resignations (i.e. not running again) of many long-term congressmen. We may be slow to anger, but when we're aroused, we clean house."

Except for a truly clean home you don't use the septic tank water of which all politicians reside.
Riddle me this, when do you intend to remove the money and connections that are the root of the corruption? Is it after you shuffle new corrupt faces?

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 10:09 | Link to Comment Paladin en passant
Paladin en passant's picture

Only the naive believe we could ever construct an incorruptible system.  We'll vacillate within a relatively narrow range of corruption for eternity. 

That's the nature of man. Ninety percent of people choosing to enter politics do so for two reasons: money and the power to get more money.  That'll NEVER change.  We just need to flush out the septic tank this fall and in 2012 so it'll quit backing up into our homes.  We don't need a perfect system.  Trying to create a perfect system leads to fascism and tyranny.

Rioting against the government is a ROW phenomenon.  Americans have lives to live. That's why we hire politicians to take care of that crap. When we tire of them, we vote for Change.  When that turns out to be just another Chicago scam, we decide to get serious and vote the bastards out.  At least the new crop of bastards has a bit of fear for a bit of time.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 14:46 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

...but we do throw the bums out.

Well, yeah, all of them except our bum.  He's ok.

Incumbents rule, historically that has not changed -- so nothing changes.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:57 | Link to Comment Walt Whitman
Walt Whitman's picture

However, when the "legalized police state" has changed the paper ballot system to an easily hacked and "revised" electronic ballot system, your chance of "throwing the bums out" is severely and irrevokably curtailed.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 14:12 | Link to Comment Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

Yes, this is clearly the strategy for the future.

I only do the "drop off" paper ballots now but really, how do I know it is even counted???

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:07 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

@LoneStarHog

The sign of a civilized society is its LACK of laws, as a CIVILIZED people require very few laws because they are INHERENTLY civilized.

Thank you.  Couldn't have said it better or more succinctly myself.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:34 | Link to Comment Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

The more corrupt the state, the more numerous the laws. - Tacitus, Roman Senator - ???BC

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 08:48 | Link to Comment LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

150,000 gain in the private sector? --- Sure, Birth/Death Model phanton jobs...There is only one comic book Phantom job required and it is already filled

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 08:58 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

@LoneStarHog

It is laughable, isn't it?  I think there is all of this focus on private payrolls because they want to diminish the coming tsunami of public sector layoffs.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:23 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Well, that's the fun part about exposing the results (of anything, really) without making the data and methodology available...ain't it?  You can only speculate that it's bogus.  They'll never let you prove it.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 10:21 | Link to Comment Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

"they want to diminish the coming tsunami of public sector layoffs."

Those layoffs will never happen. We will have QE2 to bail out all of the states and CRE fat cats. Of course they will wait until after the elections (lame duck Congress) to make their move. The money will have strings attached and will pretty much seal the deal as the Feds assume full control down to the local level.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 08:50 | Link to Comment oklaboy
oklaboy's picture

look out belooowwwwwwww....

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 08:51 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Futures rise on the news, naturally.  Albeit they are still in the red.

Run for the bomb shelter negative data...down 30.  Yea, right.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 08:53 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

I noticed that as well. 

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:03 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Going green now, so now the short squeeze begins.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:11 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Un-be-fucking-lievable.

This shit never ends.  Never.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 14:52 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Patience, my good man.  When it ends we will all be looking in the rear view mirror saying, "What the hell was that!?"  It'll flash by so fast, so many traders will be caught with their shorts down, so many politicians will be bumped off the stump by the earthquake that there will be no time to prepare.

Except for those of us who already have, of course.

What part of "Get Out Of This Market!" is so hard to understand?  Picking up pennies in front of an oncoming steam roller is bad for the health and the wallet.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 08:51 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

RIP Recovery: the economy has now entered the "total freefall" area.

Honestly, this report gives me feelings of rage.  Rage because we knew the Keynesian clowns were wasting time and money to keep their Potemkin Wall Street village afloat.  No punishment is too harsh for Benron et al and no derision is too light for the enablers and dupes like Leo Kolivakis.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:11 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Thanks for the link. This paragraph pretty much says it all.

"By using its balance sheet to protect an investment bank against failure, the Fed took on the most credit risk in its 96- year history and increased the chance that Americans would be on the hook for billions of dollars as the central bank began insuring Wall Street firms against collapse. The Fed’s secrecy spurred legislation that will require government audits of the Fed bailouts and force the central bank to reveal recipients of emergency credit."

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 10:02 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

The truely shocking bit is that Bernanke lied about it. If I were to do the same, I would be in jail for 30 years. But this is clearly a case of an individual thinking he is above the law.

 

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 13:21 | Link to Comment Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

if he's still free, then he is. . . above the law.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 14:19 | Link to Comment Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

What !!???  Ben lied !!?????

I am shocked !

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 14:53 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

And this did not come from some tin-foil hat wearing blogger site.

How did this article sneak by into the MSM?  Somebody's ass is on the street.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 15:44 | Link to Comment Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

No shit!  Don't upset the Sheeple right before a big holiday weekend!

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 10:06 | Link to Comment Paper CRUSHer
Paper CRUSHer's picture

I sympathize and I would like to add that "PRIVATE" Benjamin Bernanke will choose "inflate and die" as he is well known for his MONEY EXPANDING ACTIVITIES, so going along those lines a deserved punishment in the form of  slipping one of these CAPSULES into his mouth will do the trick......DR KANANGA V 007:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBncb56Z_xI&feature=related

HA-HA love the line........"He always had a INFLATED opinion of himself"

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:37 | Link to Comment jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

Money expanding capabilities my ass.

Good luck finding anyone other than fed.gov at the table borrowing money into existence, the end is nigh as voters throw the bastards out.

into the deflationary hell hole we march, its game and gig over, the inflationary helicopter rescue was a LIE.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 08:52 | Link to Comment jtmo3
jtmo3's picture

150k my ass. Do they expect someone to believe that tripe?

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:09 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

It probably helps whatever predatory prop desk short squeeze they will attempt today or tomorrow.  Trading is war.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:12 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Exactly, it isn't real but it's justification and a plausible reason to jam the shorts.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:19 | Link to Comment I need more asshats
I need more asshats's picture

We have to remember that there are a lot of companies in the private sector that are just quasi-government entities.

Funnel some recovery money to these entities and let them hire some 'employees'.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 08:52 | Link to Comment sumo
sumo's picture

Naturally, Reuters, Bloomberg, and Bubblevision will describe these numbers as "unexpected".

Yeah, who would have guessed?

 

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 10:28 | Link to Comment MilleniumJane
MilleniumJane's picture

No kidding...do these people live under a rock?  I shouldn't be, but I am in constant amazement at the obtuseness of mainstream media.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 13:23 | Link to Comment Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

employed actors.  do they talk to the cameras?  are shows "produced"?  do they have paid sponsors / advertisers?

then they're actors.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 08:52 | Link to Comment papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

First the weather...now 'census displacement'? Who the fuck would pass up a long term private job for a temp census job? Perhaps I'm being too simplistic.....

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:05 | Link to Comment Wyndtunnel
Wyndtunnel's picture

No doubt because you don't have a PhD!

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:14 | Link to Comment papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Ahha!...I do believe you are on to something there!

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:19 | Link to Comment Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

Generally one gets a BS prior to moving on to the PhD.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 10:14 | Link to Comment cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

PhD= well I got my BS in Social Studies and no job offers, Might as well go to grad school. Graduated grad school still no job..................going for PHD so maybe the University will hire me to pay back my 180K in student loans. 

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:32 | Link to Comment berated
berated's picture

I was bothered by this claim as well. But, after thinking about it, would the claim make sense if the Census was drawing from the same pool of applicants as typically entry-level jobs in retail, lodging or food service (ie, fast food, hotel or sales clerk, parking attendant)? Admittedly, there's high turnover at these types of jobs, but given a choice, I think I'd choose the Census over flipping burgers.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 15:50 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

berated

Happy One Year ZH Birthday.

Thank you for all your contributions to the ZH community.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 08:53 | Link to Comment Yikes
Yikes's picture

after the last two days in the market, I was thinking today might be a up day before the hammer falls tommorrow on NFPs report.  Guess I was wrong.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 08:54 | Link to Comment Wynn
Wynn's picture

When people fall off unemployment, how many of them transition over to welfare benefits? What is the duration, and cost, of the welfare system?

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:03 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Watch food stamp issuance....

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:22 | Link to Comment Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

Today's the first day of the month.  I'm off to the food store to check out the lines.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 14:20 | Link to Comment Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

44 million and climbing

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 14:55 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

How about just reporting payroll withholding?  Can't argue with those numbers!

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:05 | Link to Comment papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

I usually use the individual food stamp rolls as an indicator. Unfortunately (for timely indication) it typically lags 3 months behind present time. March being the latest...crossed the 40 million mark (40.1 million)...in comparison to March 2009 with 33.1 million. 7 million people have been added in 1 year. The projection was to break 40.5 million by Sept 2010...I suspect that when the April data comes out (a day or 4) we will have already crossed that line.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:14 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

keep us updated on that number when you get your hands on it.  I am curious as well to see how much it went up.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 08:55 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Timmy just announced they sold off 1.1 Billion Citi shares...nice pre-market open nugget to digest.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 08:55 | Link to Comment Paul S.
Paul S.'s picture

Leo? LEEEOOOOO???????

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 15:53 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Paul S

Thank you for a years contributions to ZH.

Happy One Year ZH Birthday.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 08:56 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

TIME TO PAY UP OBAMA! GIVE US QE2!

 

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:05 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Ask for a QE2, get a Titanic.

I'm long lifeboats.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 08:58 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

What a minute, the President and the Federal Reserve Chairman stated things were getting better just a few days ago.  I demand a refund.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:00 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

When they talk about the economy, the actually mean their own checking accounts. And those are DOING GOOOOoooood!

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:04 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

It is better for them and their cronies. 

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:17 | Link to Comment Paper CRUSHer
Paper CRUSHer's picture

"How the mighty fall"(N.S.M)..........Sir,would you kindly remain seated at all times,the show is not over.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 08:59 | Link to Comment Itsalie
Itsalie's picture

So the market is now primed for a "beat - better than -100k" due to birth death adjustments, and the head and shoulder would be buried yet again. Shorts, you are warned. The market did not even blink withe the bad weekly claims - not even treasuries manage to sustian the spike - sign of the bulls taking over.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:01 | Link to Comment jtmo3
jtmo3's picture

I think you mean "sign of the bullshit" taking over.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:38 | Link to Comment IE
IE's picture

You might want to consider reserving judgement until a *little* later in the day...

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 08:59 | Link to Comment Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

RBS agrees that the Cliff edge is near::

 

RBS: Equity Investors Are The "Worst Cult In History," Prepare For The "Cliff Edge" Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/rbs-equity-investors-are-the-worst-cult-in-history-prepare-for-the-cliff-edge-2010-6#ixzz0sR1uj8qH
Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:25 | Link to Comment Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

Frightening analysis from RBS.

It seems falling off the cliff could happen at any time.

 

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:00 | Link to Comment Mitchman
Mitchman's picture

While it is fine to rant against thos who abuse the support of UI, there is real suffering going on out there and I support the comments of the other posters who rage against Benron and the other idiots who enable the Wall Street Potemkin Village.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:01 | Link to Comment Edna R. Rider
Edna R. Rider's picture

Way too much action in the currency markets this morning for my taste.  Looks like someone will "fix" the Yen today and therefore fix stocks temporarily.  Be wary.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:28 | Link to Comment Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Yep and the gold manipulation is "on" again today, too. 

Look for The Empire to try to crack it down thru 1227 today.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:02 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Farm and non-farm sounds so aniquated.

Soon, it's going to be farm payrolls. Only.

Little pay, lots of rolls.

I really wonder how many people are preparing, as a percentage of the population?

5%? I mean really preparing.

 

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:31 | Link to Comment IE
IE's picture

Less than 1% are actually "preparing", I'd guess.  But a higher percentage than that are self-sufficient in the first place (in rural areas).

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:36 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

IE
"Less than 1% are actually "preparing", I'd guess. But a higher percentage than that are self-sufficient in the first place (in rural areas)."

But 5% of us are planning on seizing the goods those single percenters own.

When In doubt I always try to follow the wisdom of Conan.

Mongol General: Hao! Dai ye! We won again! This is good, but what is best in life?
Mongol: The open steppe, fleet horse, falcons at your wrist, and the wind in your hair.
Mongol General: Wrong! Conan! What is best in life?
Conan: To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women.
Mongol General: That is good! That is good.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 14:24 | Link to Comment Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

That 5% better be well armed. I REALLY ENJOY shooting thieves.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 15:04 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

When the Empire falls and all the troops come a-marching home, you'll find well trained and armed folks working in coordinated groups coming for your stuff.  (Training and camo gear courtesy of your tax dollars -- er, I mean borrowed from China.) Are you prepared for that?

Always keep a decoy stash that can easily be found.  All you'll get is a good beating for "hiding" goods rather than being outright killed for the main cache.

Example of decoy stash:  About $20 in junk silver, mix in some post 1964 coins to show that you really don't know what you're doing.  Add some clad Kennedy halves as well.  Have some Coleman lantern fuel in beat up cans, and some lantern butane bottles.  A camp stove.  Some water stored in old HDPE milk cartons.  Some granola bars in a zip lock baggie.  A cheap-ass first aid kit from Walgreens.  That oughta do it.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 15:48 | Link to Comment Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

I'm hip RR.

I even have a couple of sets of greasy tore up clothes I wear when I work on the cars (By that time I won't have a car. Probably keep the motorbikes stashed)

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 10:32 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Good point IE. Rural people the world over will fare better. No doubt.

Seems logical then to become rural as soon as possible, eh?

Funny thing in the US is that farm usually (larger percentage by far) means factory farm.

Mechanized agri, big machines, huge gas bill/dependence.

Tricky tricky all around!

 

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 14:19 | Link to Comment Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

heya OhrI ~

thought you might be interested in seeing how some URBAN homesteaders are reshaping their lives. . .

this link is to a home in SoCalif that has created a website with people sharing information and advice from all over:

http://urbanhomestead.org/

another of interest is a young woman who has set up an urban foraging community in Oakland Calif - a place many think of as a "ghetto" but in fact has lots of great community projects:

http://forageoaklandmanifesto.blogspot.com/

there are many, many more - most don't blog, just work within their communities. . . I lived urban most of my life, and always had at least a windowsill "garden" - I'm in a more rural space now, but maintain contact with my cityfolks, like a satellite, lol. . . easily three-quarters of my friends in town have dug up their useless lawns, and have organic, food producing gardens in their place, backyard chickens & bees. . . these are not wealthy "yuppie" types, most are not the archetypal "couple 'n' kids" but multi-singles sharing work, all are people who wanted to eat decent food, locally sourced - well before it became a 30 second fluff piece on the "news". they also trade amongst their neighbours, which means a wider range of foods for all, and better community.

best wishes!

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:38 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Oh regional Indian

"Farm and non-farm sounds so aniquated.'

I hear that. Where is the Dope and Whore payroll? Those are the numbers that matter to me and my bitches.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 10:27 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Funny thing Gully is that it is where it's at. Dope and Whore. The "Oh So Black" market.

 

Pimp and Hoe nation. 

Soon world.

Yick!

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:05 | Link to Comment Rick64
Rick64's picture

Are we entering a new recession because the old one was over last year? Numerous economical geniuses said so.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:22 | Link to Comment Misean
Misean's picture

"Are we entering a new recession because the old one was over last year?"

No man,  it's cuz this years model is "New and Improved"!  You can even roll your old recession loan into your new-recession loan and extend it to 7 years!  And then next year you can get into what all the tech press is ga-ga over...the New-Depression.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 10:32 | Link to Comment MilleniumJane
MilleniumJane's picture

LOL!

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:07 | Link to Comment Young
Young's picture

BEWARE, ONE DECIMAL TO THE BULLISH SIDE IN AN HOUR WILL CAUSE A FIVE PERCENT RALLY! No fucking joke, the buyers are hungry!

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:13 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

Damn right.  I guess they are gambling on the ISM number.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:21 | Link to Comment papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

ISM is now a lagging indicator.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:28 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

Doesn't matter.  ANYTHING they can grab onto to create some volatility and profit from it.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:22 | Link to Comment Yikes
Yikes's picture

Futures back to even?  Us/Euro at 1.24?

I don't get it?  WTF!

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:24 | Link to Comment Young
Young's picture

The sellers have used up all their strenght for this time... We really have to watch the upside now. Looks like the euro is willing to run aswell...

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 15:10 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Austerity pays.  Whereas, QE does not.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:07 | Link to Comment Privatus
Privatus's picture

You don't need a weatherman to see which way the wind blows. Expecially a crooked weatherman like Uncle Scam.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:20 | Link to Comment Blano
Blano's picture

"Given that Census payrolls probably dropped by around 230,000, this effect would suggest a considerable snapback in private hiring in June."

 

This makes no sense to me.  Said statement implies (to me anyways) that people had a choice between taking a private job and a Census job, and now that the Census jobs are going away, they can just grab a private sector job.  Can't see that happening.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:53 | Link to Comment Brett in Manhattan
Brett in Manhattan's picture

If you worked on the census and recently got laid off, you'll probably qualify for unemployment benefits which last for about 2 years.

While the job market stinks, it's Christmas for people who know how to work the system.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 14:30 | Link to Comment Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

I would be surprised if the rules have been changed on unemployment benefits paid to temporary contract workers. . . last time I paid attention to it, benefits are a percentage of the income earned at the last job, and temp workers would get benefits based on the amount of time worked - one, two, three months, etc. - if they're now paying out more unemployment benefits than the actual time worked, I would be. . . surprised.

well, lol, maybe not.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:25 | Link to Comment yabs
yabs's picture

come on I hope you all have PHD'ds to make comments like these, after all economics is Difficult

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:27 | Link to Comment WineSorbet
WineSorbet's picture

Too bad the Long Island Expressway is jammed as ever during rush hour!

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:32 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

People, people, calm down. There is hope.
( Cognitive Dissonance, please just skip this as I understand you do not like reading long articles, unless of course it is the self aggrandizing fiction you post)
Guess what? All you new gun owners now have a place to go. Sadly you need to leave your Gold, wives and children behind. Then again maybe not. Can the little woman pop some caps in asses? Do the kiddies ice small game for fun on the weekends?
Remember the family that kills together are, ...uh... well fuck it, government tools.

http://rawstory.com/rs/2010/0630/obama-civilian-expeditionary-force-aid-...

Obama: ‘Civilian expeditionary force’ can aid wearied troops

US soldiers in combat could use an assist from a civilian workforce while trying to rebuild war-torn nations, President Barack Obama said Wednesday.

Speaking at a town hall in Racine, Wisconsin, Obama called for sending a "civilian expeditionary force" to Afghanistan and Iraq to help overburdened military troops build infrastructure. His remarks were first reported by The Associated Press.

"So what I’m trying to say is, don’t put all the burden on the military. Make sure that we’ve got a civilian expeditionary force," said the president, adding that the civilian force would build schools, bridges and roads in regions cleared by the military as safe.

Obama last December renounced the possibility committing the US to a lengthy "nation-building" project. "I reject this course because it sets goals that are beyond what can be achieved at a reasonable cost, and what we need to achieve to secure our interests," he said in a speech at New York's West Point Academy.

Department of Defense Directive 1404.10, dated January 23, 2009, set up a "Civilian Expeditionary Workforce" that would "be organized, trained, cleared, equipped, and ready to deploy in support of combat operations by the military; contingencies; emergency operations; humanitarian missions; disaster relief; restoration of order; drug interdiction; and stability operations."

Its intent would be "to maximize the use of the civilian workforce to allow military personnel to be fully utilized for operational requirements," according to a Defense Department statement reported by the American Forces Press Service.

Obama openly embraced this idea on the campaign trail during his presidential run.

He alluded to it during a speech about national service in Colorado on July 2, 2008.

"We cannot continue to rely only on our military in order to achieve the national security objectives that we've set. We've got to have a civilian national security force that's just as powerful, just as strong, just as well-funded," Obama said.

On his campaign Web site, he called for, among other things, "a Veterans Corps to assist veterans at hospitals, nursing homes and homeless shelters; and a Homeland Security Corps to help communities plan, prepare for and respond to emergencies."

While Defense Secretary Robert Gates praised this as positive utilization of "soft power," others viewed a powerful civilian national security apparatus as a potential cause for concern.

Kurt Nimmo of Infowars worried that "in the not too distant future they will likely send 'civilians' with firearms and the power to arrest 'rightwing extremists' who represent, according to the Department of Homeland Security and numerous federalized police agencies, 'offense against the United States.'"

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:46 | Link to Comment -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

Wow, I wonder what kind of union contract that would turn out to be.  Can you imagine the overtime potential?

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 15:14 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

( Cognitive Dissonance, please just skip this as I understand you do not like reading long articles, unless of course it is the self aggrandizing fiction you post)

That comment was totally unnecessary.  At least he can string enough coherent words together for a readable comment.  Your intro to the quoted article was limp and obviously done just to be able to say you did something original. 

Other than that, the article is of interest.  Thanks for posting it.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 15:49 | Link to Comment Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

I continue to maintain that Gully needs its own blog

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:41 | Link to Comment Maude
Maude's picture

So anyone think the spike has something to do with layoffs in the Gulf?  No tourists means no jobs

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:49 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Maude

Speaking of the Gulf.

(Another for you to skip Cognitive Dissonance, much to wordy for you)

http://www.businessinsider.com/warning-to-gulf-cleanup-workers-almost-ev...

Warning To Gulf Volunteers: Almost Every Cleanup Worker From The 1989 Exxon Valdez Disaster Is Now Dead

Are you sure that you want to help clean up the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico? In a previous article we documented a number of the health dangers from this oil spill that many scientists are warning us of, and now it has been reported on CNN that the vast majority of those who worked to clean up the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska are now dead. Yes, you read that correctly. Almost all of them are dead.

In fact, the expert that CNN had on said that the life expectancy for those who worked to clean up the Exxon Valdez oil spill is only about 51 years. Considering the fact that the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is now many times worse than the Exxon Valdez disaster, are you sure you want to volunteer to be on a cleanup crew down there? After all, the American Dream is not to make big bucks for a few months helping BP clean up their mess and then drop dead 20 or 30 years early.

This news clip from CNN is absolutely stunning. If this is even close to true, then why would anyone want to be involved in helping to clean up this oil?....

The truth is that what we have out in the Gulf of Mexico is a "toxic soup" of oil, methane, benzene, hydrogen sulfide, other toxic gases and very poisonous chemical dispersants such as Corexit 9500.

Breathing all of this stuff is not good for your health, but the reality is that the true health toll of this oil spill is not going to be known for decades.

However, the early reports are not encouraging....

*Already, a large number of workers cleaning up the BP oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico report that they are suffering from flu-like symptoms.

*According to another new report, exposure to the oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico has resulted in 162 cases of illnesses reported to the Louisiana state health department.

*In addition, according to one local Pensacola news source, "400 people have sought medical care for upper or lower respiratory problems, headaches, nausea, and eye irritation after trips to Escambia County beaches."

This is going to be something that we all want to keep a very close eye on.

But it is not just oil spill cleanup workers and people who have gone to the beach who are reporting health issues. The following is a report from a reader named Dee....

My 2 friends and I have been sick with headaches and vomiting, also it feels like heartburn, just feeling lousy. We have not been to the Gulf but there is an inlet at the end of our street. We live on the West side of Pensacola FL. near the Bayou. At first I thought it was just me. My 2 friends are having the same symptoms, all at the same time. Right now I have a dull headache, and my stomach is queasy. I have been thinking maybe the chemicals from the oil cleanup or the oil itself is causing us to be ill. It has been raining all day off and on. I started feeling ill late last night. I was wondering if anyone else in Pensacola have the same symptoms.

So what can we conclude from all this?

Well, it is still very early, but when this crisis is all said and done the biggest tragedy of all might be the health devastation that this oil spill has caused.

If the Exxon Valdez oil spill is any indication, a lot of pe0ple are going to end up dying early deaths.

So once again, do you really want to go down there and clean up this oil?

Of course all of this oil is not just going to clean itself up.

But if we all refuse to participate, who will clean it up?

Perhaps BP CEO Tony Heyward and other high ranking BP executives could roll up their sleeves and go down there and start cleaning up all of that toxic sludge.

It's their mess, so let them clean it.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 10:12 | Link to Comment Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

You Sir are scaring the children, please cease and desist.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 12:36 | Link to Comment Not Sure
Not Sure's picture

I'm calling bullshit. The level of sick people should be much higher. What about the reporters playing with the oil? You mentioned Tony should go work on the beach. Is he sick?

Name some other well known visitors to the spill. Who is and isn't getting sick and why? If this is true, I think the number of sick should be well past 100k.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 14:34 | Link to Comment Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

what's with the multiple bitchy digs Gully?

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 15:18 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

He knows people will gig him for posting entire, long articles rather than a link and a teaser.  He is going defensive, but that is counter productive.  He has not figured that out yet.  Being bitchy is the reflex to anticipated conflagration -- which would not have happened had he not been bitchy!  It's self-fulfilling.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 10:01 | Link to Comment juwes
juwes's picture

doh

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:47 | Link to Comment WineSorbet
WineSorbet's picture

It feels like we are being set up for an upside surprise on tomorrow's payroll numbers.  Remember last month when everyone was prepped for a great report and it was terrible?  Now we are prepped for a nasty report and it will turn out great and the bears will be shot dead in their tracks.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:55 | Link to Comment traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Amazing how hard GS tries to create the appearance that it is doing actually analysis, but then waves away the discrepancy between ADP and BLS (um, the absurd B/D model) and in the end sticks with what really just seems like a round number guess that supports their thesis. 

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:58 | Link to Comment ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

I thought double dipping was not allowed!

I saw it on seiny..

 

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 10:10 | Link to Comment Young
Young's picture

Jesus christ, that was some really shitty stats...

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 10:12 | Link to Comment Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

 

EURUSD buying support detected for some time now, has returned again and the daily chart is now neutral to bullish.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com/about

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 10:23 | Link to Comment Mark Beck
Mark Beck's picture

For most of the melt up, unemplyment numbers like this were ignored by the market. Time and time again.

What makes this report extraordinary? Well nothing.

The week ending on the 26th is the first unpaid EUC (termination) week and is not yet factored in.

In the report issued the EB and EUC ending June 12 reductions were expected as people fall off the rolls. Nothing strange here.

The claim that GDP "double dip" is shown in this report is a bit much. ZH should show some restraint on the Headline Hype.

The more important key to double dip is the BDI.

----------

I would also like to point out that the vast majority of money from the Administration and FED was transfered to the banks, or took the form of state and union aid, and not focused on maximizing employment. Fundamentally, the strategy for recovery was never rooted in the creation of jobs.

----------

There is something out of the ordinary with this latest fall in growth, influenced in part by removal of stimulus. But, I have been searching for this added decline. My conclusion thus far is the effect is focused on state austerity, for lack of a better word.

The states are fast becoming a bottle neck in the use of "employment" resources. They are not acting as a pass through for job creation.

Mark Beck

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:34 | Link to Comment linrom
linrom's picture

Well put. There is absolutely nothing new! UI claims over 400,000 is the norm in recession. ISM at 56 is above historical averages during non recessionary periods.

You are right, there has not been any economic stimulus yet: the money went to bank and banker bonuses as well as public union jobs.

Note how ZH disparages unemployed recipients of benefits as idle boors buying ipads. The truth is that money goes to support their families and communities.

 

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:45 | Link to Comment NotAlwaysSo
NotAlwaysSo's picture

+1

Too many cheerleaders for doom here nowadays, one-dimensionality is becoming rampant.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:57 | Link to Comment Blano
Blano's picture

I think that's called sarcasm.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 14:58 | Link to Comment Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

I think everything will turn out great.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 10:38 | Link to Comment Young
Young's picture

Euro up, Aussie down, huh!?

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 10:42 | Link to Comment Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

 

EURUSD buying support detected for some time now, has returned again and the daily chart is now neutral to bullish.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com/about

Sat, 08/21/2010 - 11:10 | Link to Comment herry
herry's picture

Certainly a lot of details like that to take into consideration. Thanks windows vps | cheap vps | cheap hosting | forex vps

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 01:57 | Link to Comment shawnlee
shawnlee's picture

Well put. There is absolutely nothing new! UI claims over 400,000 is the norm in recession. ISM at 56 is above historical averages during non recessionary periods.

You are right, there has not been any economic stimulus yet: the money went to bank and banker bonuses as well as public union jobs.

Note how ZH disparages unemployed recipients of benefits as idle boors buying ipads. The truth is that money goes to support their families and communities.

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