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The Double Dip Threat
Without doubt the two biggest issues before the US economy are the threat of a double dip recession and what happens when the massive liquidity pump is i) stopped and ii) put in reverse. And of the key macro economic indicators, deflation is by far the biggest bogeyman (and wildcard). Even in the context of so-called better than expected economic data, i.e., the growth in GDP, a more exhaustive dig through the deflator for gross domestic purchases reveals that deflation has still firmly gripped the economy. Yet price perceptions, which have an impact on the consumer saving and spending rate, while critical are merely one of the numerous indicators that one has to keep an eye on. The group of the four horsemen portending the shift from a recession to a depression also includes overall systemic leverage, the availability of credit, and unemployment.
A useful chart to visualize these trends is presented below.
So while the administration has released unprecedented fiscal stimuli, which are already waning, with Obama's stimulus package expected to have no marked beneficial impact on GDP past the third quarter (and in fact to extract from growth in future periods), the question is how monetary intervention will be adjusted correspondingly to fit in with what the talking heads have already pronounced has been the end of the recession. In this vein, the overall market reaction provides a useful test of how the bulk of Obama's and the Fed's intervention has impacted the economy.
Yet the real challenge for investors is digging through all the data and determining what is one-time in nature (ISM spike) and thus subject to a prompt reversal once either fiscal or monetary mechanism exhaust their impact, and what has s long-term systemic benefit. If one listens to Bernanke (and Bill Gross), the economy could easily be overheating yet Fed Fund rates will likely hug the flatline well into 2011 (and certainly will not be increased before the current and any future quantitative easing episodes are used up). Will Bernanke's policies lead to a much worse credit bubble than Greenspan? The answer is probably yes, as even the Fed chairman has trouble discerning at this point the non-recurring versus the traditional economic trends, ergo the double dip threat. It is a virtual impossibility at this point that the same Federal Reserve that was blatantly ignorant of so many indications in the 2002-2007 period which were screaming for a rate hike, will have the foresight to know not only when to reverse the liquidity stream, but which key milestones to use as an indicator of frothy liquidity.
And with regards to equities, the conundrum that has speculators scratching their heads is whether the nearly inevitable double dip will in turn result in a hyperinflationary episode, which will likely push equities into the stratosphere for a brief parabolic flash before everything comes crashing, ala the Weimar Republic, or if the market will by then be rid of day-trading speculators who see beyond the hype and decide to be the first to get out of the game of Ponzi musical chairs.
One thing is certain - Chairman Ben's life over the next year, and for the duration of his second term, will be filled with numerous exciting (and by all counts, wrong) decisions. And as the market now is priced to perfection, one wrong choice and it will all come crashing down, compliments of the market now being a house of cards built upon complete economic disconnect. Alas, based on the Chairman's track record of being pathologically behind the curve, the future looks bleak indeed.
Charts from Morgan Stanley
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Retail stocks flying to new highs....
"And as the market now is priced to perfection..." Yes, we've all seen this before, and we know that when Goldilocks finally thinks she's found the perfect bowl of cereal the end is near.
I'd get a new harem, Robo. This one's got bad habits.
Talking about bad habits: double dipping = callous disregard for law abiding believers
Kamikaze Ben. Screw the helicopter, I'm taking everything down.
Food Stamp Green Shoots
How ironic. A bubble in food stamps. Whatever next?
I hear from the Street that Goldman's vamp squid has a tentacle in the foodstamp market. They're redeeming foodstamps for cash, hoarding the national supply, then unleashing when pent-up demand pushes the food stamp to food price ratio north of 1.
The great liquidity pump will not go into reverse. CB's are all working together now in a global coordinated expansion of the money supply.
"Reversal" is a propaganda concept which goes hand in hand with the "strong dollar policy".
The pump is forever.
The Pump is King!
Long live the Pump!
Totaly concur as America bleeds trillions.
Look for the Unfunded liabilities to breach 59 trillion tomorrow around 8 pm central----our burn rate is running at a 1.2 million per minute clip/ 4 billion per day.
Look for the National debt to breach the 12 trillion mark in 33 days Oct 6 2009--burn rate is running 1.7 million a minute.
To have unleashed the Kracken is a total understatement-what we are witnessing is the death star and there is no toggle joint.
Welcome to the universe of discourse
Sayeth the Bard: "The Pump don't work cause the vandals took the handle."
Double dips is right - Bernanke and Geithner.
zing!
The Double Dip-shits.
Double dong.
Looking @ PIRA seasonally adjusted North American power consumption on a y/y basis and not seeing ANY postive trends.
Aug: -4.6%
July: -6%
June: -4.8%
May: -5.5%
April: -4.75%
March: -4.75%
February: -2.95%
January: -3.4%
*note in this case,seasonally adjusted smooths out weather fluctuations.
That's just all those Stimulus provided fluorescent bulbs and window caulk.
There will be no double dip.
We may have a positive GDP quarter in Q3. Thereafter, we will continue our downward spiral, which will accelerate once crimps are put on Federal and state spending.
This is one continous drop in economic activity. The NBER, which officially calls the start and stop dates, will not opine on the end of this until the coast is patently clear. Their criteria are establishment employment, industrial production, real wholesale sales, and real disposable income. Only one, arguably -- industrial production -- is showing any signs of life. And that sign of life will extinguish as the year goes on.
'Double dip' will disappear from popular lexicon in a few months.
Excellent article
I think we will have deflation + currency crisis. I think M3 might actually start contracting in 2010.
Also I don't think the move in gold can be considered 'confirmed' until the price stays above 900$ during an equity crash. I think either this is to wash out leveraged spec longs or else gold smells war./bankfailure/etc
Up to now the move in gold is nice but viewed in isolation not really important.
What is new since a while in gold and silver that after a sharp price drop the price comes back fast, like what I would expect if a big and smart player is building a position. That makes the price move a bit more important, but still the old highs at 1007 and 10033 need to bee overcome.
In yen and euro the move is at the high of February respective April and in both cases farther away from the all-time highs. In that sense the move needs to get bigger to be important.
I think gold could go to 1500 and not be particularly meaningful in the whole scheme of things except for gold of course. I think demand could drive the price to these levels while the USD deflates at the same time. Gold awareness by the masses and China could be the culprit, not inflation. Lord knows it is not without effort from chopper ben and timmy gotta get get geithner.
AGREE - WHEN GOLD IS ATTRACTIVE TO THE UNLEVERAGED INVESTOR IT WILL BOTTOM
a question; has anyone else hear anything about Banco Santander and the potential default of the same ? I ask, because there are some rumors going around that Banco Santander is on the verge of default because massive amount of RE and CRE loans have been, are, and will be in default. If someone here knows anything about it; i would appreciate it if he/she leaves a response under this post. Thanks
There's been rumors of a big bank default all week -- some actually came from floor traders apparently. The most credible I heard was that the bank was in Europe -- perhaps one of the club med countries. Banco Santander fits with some off the rumors I have heard -- which were that a large bank was on the rocks in Spain. Unfortch these are just rumors I wouldnt bet on them. We've been hearing about 'a large bank is going to fail' for like 6 montths heh heh. But who knows -- something wierd is happening with gold, either JPM and HSBC are washiing out spec longs or there are fireworks ahead
yep yep; thanks PM; i should've structured my question a bit better; but nevermind that.But as i look at gold chart almost daily; some weird shit is going on; if considered as a hedge; dollar will drop like a rock soon; if as a store value; the same; and if the recent move in gold is defined by potential of a large player going down i would put my money on Banco; considering the size of destruction Spain took in 08 and 09 in CRE and RE sector; to which Banco was a major lender. Thanks for the answer man. Its good to know that the rumor is not pure BS.
By the way where'd you go? Find a Croatian girl or something?
yes, i had some company for a few days; and was doing some financially unrelated research.
Fits the profile, because in reecnt months the financial press has been talking Banco Sant. up a bit, even propoting themas a buyer for American large banks, if I recall propperly.
There were rumors flying around from all corners yesterday about a bank default brewing *somewhere*. One of the PIGS seems a logical choice if I knew there was a default coming from a random corner of the globe. So I believe whatever you might be hearing is just an echo from that.
Regarding STD specifically tho, this is all i've found from the past couple days
They delayed redemption of a Tier 2 bond till December: http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSL1319720090901
And had a chunk of their auto loans downgraded with others put on negative watch: http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=200909020708dowjonesdjonline000382&title=press-releasefitchsantander-consumer-spain-auto-06-notes
wow,good finds. thanks
i also heard that the big defaulter could be Corus; but that does not make any sense to me; since that is known for months now that Corus is practically bankrupt. PIGS are in danger, specially Spain and Italy ( <------ exposure to Eastern Europe ). Also i don't think a bank failure in Portugal or Greece would be considered as a major default; since those banks play no major role in the general order of things in EU banking sector; but on the other hand they could behave like a first domino. Thanks for the links Steak; the second one is specifically valuable; considering the rare nature of the move.
The death of Corus is not a rumor but an event in progress; the only uncertainty de jour is whether a sucker has been found yet to take it over or the FDIC will have to do it.
the Santander bond in question is large (500million Euros) but it was a call options, so it's not like they missed an interest payment. Seems they need the cash... I don't think its them but if they do its big news, they are Eurozone's largest bank I think
STD is def in Europe's top 10. But i tell ya its hard for me to imagine an "unexpected" bank failure in the near future. When the FDIC allows some banks to remain open even when posting negative Tier 1 and we can have Fannie n Freddie ex/imploding in superslow motion, it seems any institution of size could be papered over.
Just this guy's opinion but I think the tipping point will come not with a pearl harbor style big bank collapse but with an arch duke ferdinand style minor event that spirals out of control.
Steak .... http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/02/the-top-25-european-banks-by-assets.html
Thank you basterd...what was your extracurricular research topic if ya don't mind me asking, i've taken up electrical engineering in my free time :-) good to see you back around btw
i was reading Grothendieck's Elements de geometrie algebrique ( the ones available that is ), something about Riemann hypothesis and wrote a few articles in mathematical philosophy.
Engineering is an awesome thing; the bad thing is; I'm an absolute moron when it comes to it.
This comment string is as good as the post. Thanks to all and nice to have you back CB.
hey CB, good to have you back. i don't know if you have read this but it is a good bet a spanish bank goes down. i was there recently and they are hurting.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/09/deflation-is-bitch.html
Tyler, did GS leak the real NFP # again this afternoon and i missed it?
The whisper from Morgan - Keegan this PM is 228... Just to pass it along
we are not in the grips of price deflation....real estate and stocks are not the full story......cpi is still going up - even if more slowly than last year it is still climbing and i don't care what the official numbers state....
the currency is still being debased and that means monetary inflation coupled with price deflation....
collapsing real estate and equities are a sign of depression and credit collapse - not of monetary or price deflation....
Liquidity will never be extracted. Why should it, it is only paper money anyway. Expect QE in MBS land to continue indefinitely.
The real question is, what will those USDs buy in a year? My guess? Not much.
Destroying the currency of a persecuted Zimbabwe, or a weakened Weimar, is one thing. Destroying the currency of a 300m plus resident country, where residents are armed, and are used to a decent quality of life, is another.
If they take down the dollar, blood will flow in DC.
I have a lot of secret squirrel buddies and they know how bad it is in civilian US of A. To a man they've told me they will side with America vs the gubment should it come down to it. Can't speak for Blackwater, but think for the most part the military will side with the people
The "White House" of N.C. and its peoples are mos def in agreement with your assessment Veteran.
Will not. We are two full generations away from having those kinds of balls again. Everyone alive now is either too fat, too brainwashed, or too drugged up to do anything other than vote in the next rigged election.
50 years of deprivations, however, will fix all that. Yup.
cougar
I'd have to echo this sentiment. Other than those veterans under 28, the vast majority of the current generation has more hands on experience with a Nintendo Wii than they do an actual weapon. Not to mention, the appear ot have the spine of a sea cucumber when it comes to confrontation. Does someone under 30 who voted for the Obamamessiah have the mental capacity, or will to fight the power? Its a generation of proles who have never had to work for much of anything. They didn't live through the cold war, never had to duck and cover, and other than the last year, have never known anything close to fiscal hardship. Heck I doubt more than 5% would know how to clean a fish, let alone field strip a deer.
It's too easy to frame the problem as "young people these days are useless" which btw has been done to each new generation by the prior generation since the dawn of time.
My theory is now that nobody alive today (of any age) is up to what it takes to take back our government. We've been disengaged for 100 years, and I'm very sorry but personal participation in the [pick one] War does not qualify one as a patriot. Thomas Jefferson was not a veteran of any war, but he was a patriot and he could tell you why.
That said, the day may come when patriots-by-neccesity will find themselves standing in the streets, facing their doom willingly to salvage democracy from the clutches of the powerful oligarchy. On that day, perhaps, we can stand together.
cougar
I don't think there is a lack of willingness to stand, I would pull a Spock tomorrow if it would fix all this shit. What I do see is a power structure that far surpasses anything King George could throw at us. Lets face it, the political and power class doesn't fear us. They certainly don't respect us or listen to us.
As sad as it may seem, I don't see much hope for America, and that saddens me tremendously. Sure, we can limp along for the next few decades, maybe even eek out a century, but its not the same country I was born in. Obama's election is proof enough.
The best I can hope for, is to find someplace else to move my family when the time comes, because I'd rather pull a Mosquito Coast than stay here and watch this place turn into other shit as the looters and moochers have their way. Lets face it, there is no John Galt to save us. Call it dispair if you must, I guess I'm just too beaten down to care much anymore.
It is gonna be bad, and I don't really see any way out of it esp at this pace just reinflating delaying the inevitable and throwing good $$ in a hole. It surely won't be the same country coming out as going in.
Hey, if you love America, you throw money in its hole:
http://www.theonion.com/content/video/in_the_know_should_the_government
And I thought I was the only one that felt exactly like this...
Look, idiot, it's not the generation x and y's that got us in this mess. Why don't the baby boomers take back their country rather than sit around completely dumbfounded wondering how they got in this mess. It is the younger generation that has had access to the internet that actually has the possibility to educate themselves in lieu of mother government.
Adopting buy and implode strategy. Must kill all humans. KILL ALL HUMANS.
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Black Cherry Vanilla on the bottom; Chocolate on top, Sugar cone.
Make it two.
I don't believe that they will ever attempt to rein in anything as long as the banks are toxic. Next up, infinite losses at the FHA. $15k home buyer credit, son of stimulus 3, etc., etc.. QE2...
In the series "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy" there is an interesting segment where a race of people of no remarkable skill or intelligence crashland on a planet (on Earth, it turns out, but they didn't know it at the time) and find themselves without money to pay each other for services. So they use leaves as currency.
There is a run on leaves so that entire forests are denuded. The value of leaves decreases so that you have to carry around arm loads to pay for services. The key is, nobody notices and nobody cares.
I don't recall how it ends, other than they replace the indigenous people of Earth (we would later call that an extinction of early man) and become.... us.
cougar
The "B" Ark.
They are told their home planet is about to explode, so they are sent on ahead of the "A" Ark (the leaders, scientists, and merchants) and the "C" Ark (laborers) to prepare the new planet (Earth).
The "B" Ark is comprised entirely of Hairdressers, Telephone Sanitizers, Meeting Organizers, Marketing People, and Security Guards. Basically, the useless 1/3 of the population.
The irony is that they used the leaf as their currency and when confronted with a money supply problem decided to burn down the whole forest.
"We have also run into a small inflation problem on account of the high level of leaf availability. Which means that I gather the current going rate has something like three major deciduous forests buying one ship’s peanut. So, um, in order to obviate this problem and effectively revalue the leaf, we are about to embark on an extensive defoliation campaign, and um, burn down all the forests. I think that’s a sensible move don’t you?"
Is it possible (probable) we'll have deflation for the next year along with rising Treasury bond yields? Or is more likely we'll see deflation, flatlined Fed funds rate AND low long-term interest rates?
Anyone?
I pick option 2 with a 30% chance of currency crisis
The first scenario is possible if China and Japan refuse to continue funding our Debt time bomb and instead focus on their own problems at home.
I think is estimated that there is 54Trillion worth of credit (funny money) in the US that the consumers and corporations are delevaging them selves of. (Keep in mind funny money makes up about 90-95% of the currency in circulation. The FED would have to print a lot real money to make a difference). Coupled with the fact the people dont want to borrow and banks dont want to lend there is almost no new funny money entering the supply and the current funny money is being destroyed (debt repayment) at a much faster rate than what the fed is printing. Seems purely deflationary for now... that is untill the banks are in a position to lend and the consumer is will to borrow. But that wont happen untill we actually bottom when all home and CRE forclosures are forced out and we finnaly get true valuation after the dust settles...Thats why banks are hording cash right now IMO to be able to hold off from collapsing when this all finally hits probably early next year maybe sooner.
But I give the currency crisis 75% likely hood as what I think will happen with all the mounting job losses and this deflationary spiral we are in (lots of unemployement checks going out) coupled with weak Tax returns next year are going to be brutal for the goverment and will continue to be so for many years which is going to put a burden on there ability to fund them selves and pay off existing debt (even with massive money printing). At some point the deficit will become so large that paying it wont be an option and the goverment repudiates it (basicaly says f#$@ you Im not paying) which will crash the dollar and will make way for what ever new currency they are planning on introducing, IMF SDR's or the Amero.. who knows...
no its not
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I don't see the deflationary scenario playing out. Bernanke often echoes Milton Friedman, that the cause of the great Depression was that the money supply decreased, the Fed did not act to counteract this decrease, and the decreased supply distorted economic activity and threw prices out of equilibrium.
However, our current situation is not similar. The money supply has been steadily rising throughout 2008 and 2009, rising approximately 20% in the last two years, far above the rate of economic expansion.
We experienced deflation in the 1930s, not because of decreased economic activity, or increased savings, but because of a decline in the amount of money available. The principles of supply and demand hold. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon.
The problem is that the excess money is being hoarded by the Banks to shore up their ever crumbling balance sheets; it is not going into the consumer's pockets: zero velocity. This is why deflation will persist.. Until the .zombies are slain dead, we will continue on the deflation death spiral.
Just because people are saving money doesn't mean that there will be deflation. In many Asian countries, people save money at a much higher rate than we do in the US/Western nations - they don't experience deflation. In my mind, an uptick in savings will at worst cause a temporary disruption in prices as vendors, distributers, and producers lower costs to move excess inventory.
Nevertheless, going forward, retailers, distributors, and in the end, producers will only produce a quantity the market will support (at a profitable return). Quantity produced (economic activity) might decline, as a result of a high savings rate, but prices will not necessarily follow.
People are saving because they can see the unemployment grim reaper at their doorstep, and also because they just lost 1/2 their wealth in the greatest asset deflation since the G.D.
They will start to spend again when either their income increases from present levels or they can again leverage against another asset bubble. Both scenarios are highly unlikely in the immediate future.
Other than the top 1% there is no saving, there is only no spending. The "green shoot media" notion that there is "wealth building" going on out there in America in the form of saving is completely false. Once you max out the credit line, and stop borrowing, and only barely service the debt by the skin of your teeth, do you call that new pattern "saving?" I don't think so. I call it being trapped in debt that cannot be repaid. Better to call this a "high no spending rate."
"I got debts that no honest man can pay."
- Bruce Springsteen, Atlantic City
"Inflation is a monetary phenomenon." Sure, Dr.Friedman, like in Japan, right? ZIRP, unbelievable deficit spending, money-printing to the moon, and 20 years of deflation.
Nice, smooth, understandable reading.
On Friday, August 21st at about 4:30PM/EST, Zero Hedge was kind enough to publish a report written by John Bougearel, from Structural Logic. At the top of page 3, Mr. Bougearel showed a chart, with commentary, discussing a unique, and very powerful technical topping formation called a "Three Peaks and a Domed House." Mr. Bougearel also discussed September 1st through the 15th as a key timeframe for a major TOP in the stock market, which corresponds with this pattern. Thus, we encourage all ZH readers to re-visit this particular report. Our work has narrowed that timeframe down to tomorrow September 4th through September 11th. Good luck to everyone. In closing, we'd also like to thank ZH, their staff, and contributors, for all of their commitment to this site, and quality reporting. The information presented on this site is unique and valuable to a discerning reader.
i remember reading this and read it again...link here http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-sp500-after-glowing-july-existing-home-sales-report
The Santander angle is interesting. They have recently acquired several troubled Building Societies in UK and using them have recently and surprisingly hiked instant access savings rates, presumably to generate cash deposits -however there has been no rumour relating to their financial strngth - in fact they are considered one of the most resilient. That said, the real estate exposure in Spain is dire and that could be biting very hard by now. The more obvious Euro area candidate might be ING.
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/08/25/spain-crumbles/
Inflation or deflation. It really doesn't matter. What really matters is, are we living in mediocrestan or extremistan?...the Black Swan question.
If we are living in mediocrestan, then if you make the right call on inflation or deflation, you make a couple of bucks. But, if we live in extremistan, and the outlier has so much more overwhelmingly bigger impact, that inspite of the being on the tail end of probability, that is the very thing to protect against. Currency collapse, hyper-inflation and social chaos, it the black swan than most economist are relegating to the tail. However, the impact of this problem is so large, it must dominate our probabilistic outcomes.
The paradox of the black swan is that if everyone prepared for the black swan event, it may not happpen. But, that's wishful thinking.
Structural Logic's chart makes some internal sense as describing where the top of the market is based on the S&P - will be interesting to watch. Too early in the month for the big moves just yet, but watch for those few who bolt for the door a little early.
To me this is all about QE, the size of the Federal deficit (astonishing, right now, although well concealed from the national stage under a sort of Cheneyesque Deficits Don't Matter Theory), and the size (and poor quality) of the Fed balance sheet. A very, very substantial portion of the worthless debt has been pulled onto the Fed balance sheet, under a sort of Yucca Mountain strategy to hold it where it can do no harm until it is no longer a problem. But like Yucca Mountain, the junk has a long half-life, and the other problem is that too much of the worthless debt still lies outside the Yucca repository. The FDIC is like the local garbage man, running around the neighborhoods, but only collecting the trash when it really gets nasty (having been told that Yucca is getting filled too fast via the direct trash to cash programs that have been going full steam ahead, e.g., TALF, alphabet soup kitchen programs, Agency purchases), requiring a Treasury bailout, more Treasury debt (since it doesn't have any money), wash, rinse, repeat, with OMO to conceal (until this fall, actually now) the real cost of all this nonsense. The Fed is an overstretched toxic waste dump whose carrying capacity is getting very close to the end. To me, that's where this all ends badly. And as the issuer of the Federal Reserve Note, one day someone will question the solvency of the issuer. And decide to move their marbles elsewhere. Once QE ends (and it has to, to be viable and for the Fed to maintain credibility, essential in a Ponzi - unlimited, infinite QE will not be tolerated), and the Fed's ability to suck up the bad debt ends, will be the tipping point. The equities market is merely a side show to all of this. If you can't show a forecast where all of this debt gets paid, how can you do business? If we could see into the Yucca vault . . .
"And as the market now is priced to perfection..." Yes, we've all seen this before, and we know that when Goldilocks is a joke.
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
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