Doug Casey: Precious Metals Vs. The USD

Tyler Durden's picture

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Spitzer's picture

Gold IS a bargain still. It could be cheaper then it was in 2000 if you compare it to the expansion of other monetary aggregates.1500 is nothing, I painted the tape at $1275 and I will be happy to paint it again.

 

Long-John-Silver's picture

$12 Silver and $700 Gold is where I got in. I also have a years worth of food for everyone in my family.

LivermoreJim's picture

Right on about extra food, not to mention a propane stove, plenty of propane, water and a lot of whatever else you might need in a crunch.  Worst thing would be a mad scramble to the supermaket trying to fill the cart, and fighting those oblivious of how illusionary the safety of our lifestyle really is.

JW n FL's picture

It is time for Americans to take back our Country from the Lobby Whore Government that is OWNED By Wall Street Banks / AAA Rated Corporations! "We the People" need to take back our Country. It is to Bad the Broader Populace is watching Danzig wiff da starz and completely ignorant of the Truth! You can fix Stupid and the Broader Populace is Stupid or Blissfully Ignorant and does NOT! want to know the Truth! America will be a Privatized Corporate Police State Very Soon! Because of the Stupidity!

http://goo.gl/kzWcn Max Kaiser Report Silver JPM TALF Goldman Sanders Report with a Zero Hedge pat on the back for Tyler!

FeralSerf's picture

You're going to have problems with TSA when you try to take these propane tanks with you on the way out of Dodge.

Historically, the safest plan for most people when the SHTF has been to get away from the "action".

The Navigator's picture

Country Roads, take me home.

Piranhanoia's picture

The reactors won't be shut down properly or spent fuel dealt with and we won't need food for that long, but its a nice thought. 

disabledvet's picture

have you made any trips to "the curb" and "found them wanting?"

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Doug Casey made some excellent observations. I especially like this one because it is exactly what I see since almost all asset classes are now tightly correlated to Fed moves (command economy)...

TGR: But what investments should they be looking at these days?

DC: There really aren't investments anymore. With trillions of newly created currency units floating around the world, things will become very chaotic and unpredictable shortly. It's very hard to invest using any kind of Graham-and-Dodd methodology when things are that chaotic. Whether you like it or not, you're going to be forced to be a speculator in the years to come. A speculator is somebody who tries to capitalize on politically caused distortions in the marketplace. There wouldn't be many speculators, or many of those distortions in the marketplace, if we lived in a free-market society. But we don't."

ivana's picture

:-D I like begining sentence:
>> As a general rule, I don't believe in conspiracy theories, and I don't believe anything's big enough to manipulate the market successfully over a long period <<

Thann later he listed one by one all manipulations and not free-market society which is = conspiracy

Renfield's picture

I don't think any change of historical significance (political or economic) has ever happened, that was *not* the result of a 'conspiracy' of some sort.

Do people think 'God' suddenly decided one day to topple Louise XVI? Or start WWII? or WWI? Were any of the historic empires planned, at all, by anyone? Did 'God' suddenly start flooding the US economy with money in 2008? Maybe 'God', last decade, just felt like making everyone on our street millionaires for taking on a mortgage, then just as whimsically decided to make those same homedebtors real poor over the last five years...

People who dismiss conspiracy theories simply because that's what they are, are doomed to being the pack-runners who 'never saw it coming', don't understand how it 'suddenly' happened, and have no idea what to do when the times change. And times always change.

The answer isn't to avoid conspiracy theories. The answer is to figure out which ones to credit.

Long-John-Silver's picture

World Collapse Bitchez!

Howard_Beale's picture

I'll hijack right here about this post...

"Psychology is just about the most ephemeral thing on which you could possibly base an economy."

What the fuck is a fiat currency based on, you idiot? Trust. What is trust? Belief. Where do beliefs come from? Psychology.

 

 

FeralSerf's picture

They come from salesmen like preachers, pundits, politicians, etc.  (All begin in "P" like many other disrespectable professions -- e.g. psychologists.)  Most of the trust is based on lies.  It's fraudulent.  The best carnie is the one that gets the most trust.  He's not usually the one with the most integrity.  He's the best liar.  Ditto with fiat currency creators.  They're a bunch of fucking liars.  Only idiot stupid fucking sheep believe them.  Unfortunately most Earthlings are stupid fucking sheep.

Did I mention that sometimes fiat currency creators are not entirely truthful?

Founders Keeper's picture

Howard, I think you just made his point.

Were you trying to say something different?

 

ibjamming's picture

Nah...just WW III...

 

Think about it...the end of CHEAP, almost free energy is what's dooming us...  So, we just take it.  Use some excuse to purge the ME of it's current occupants...and just take it.  Almost "free" oil, will allow almost unlimited growth again.  For a while...

Jovil's picture

And the Fed will have to print another $2.5 trillion soon to buy the bonds China, Japan, Middle East oil producers will not buy this year which is about 40%. This does not include the Chinese, Japan and others will dump to buy gold, silver and other assets to position themselves when the new international currency is established to replace our USD. Read more here:

http://lonerangersilver.wordpress.com/2011/04/28/fed-likely-to-print-2-5...

Bear's picture

China and Japan will print more of their currency to buy more of our bonds.

flacon's picture

Cool. Invest in cotton!

Vlad Tepid's picture

Gibberish.  Why would they spike their economies with inflation just to match us??

Kickaha's picture

Obviously, as willing participants in a currency-kiting scheme.  Just another way to play kick the can.

scatterbrains's picture

The one nagging issue I keep coming back to is what impact ramping govt bond rates will have on the pm's. Is it not a bond vs. dollar battle? If bb keeps his boot firmly planted on the neck of interest rates then the dollar will die, if he takes his foot off and lets rates rise then the dollar should catch a bid and the pm's should see out flows of money right ?

I imagine there will be wild swings in bonds, pm's and the dollar as BB is forced to try to slow the dollars death down at some point. Not until you get to the other side of that battle, when the country is bankrupt and the dollar is worthless do you see your final reward with your backyard coinage I'm thinking.

anarchitect's picture

Real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation) would have to go positive, as under Volcker, for PMs to be affected. This isn't going to happen any time soon because it would divert the majority of tax revenue to servicing the debt.

akak's picture

Indeed.  One only has to look at the rise in interest rates from early 2004 at 1.0%, to 2006 at 5.25%, and the simultaneous and corresponding rises in gold and silver, to see evidence that rising interest rates can be irrelevant to the prices of the precious metals, particularly when those rates remain negative in real terms.

FastBoat's picture

You also have to account for the buyers who don't care about a few dollars here or there in price.  It went south for a while, great, I get to pick up more provisions cheap for a while.  I look at PMs just like my long term pantry. 

FeralSerf's picture

Try 15 or 20% in your calcs.  How much do the (remaining few) workers/taxpayers need to send Uncle then?  Will any of them continue to work for that amount of take home pay?

Did anyone ever hear the rumour that blood can't be wrung out of a turnip?

Bear's picture

I think you are right. We live in a world of so many catch22's and so little leadership. It is so easy to spend somebodies elses money and so hard to pay the piper.

disabledvet's picture

"real rates" are rising--you just don't equate "margin rates on silver" with "real rates."  in fact "those are VERY real rates" as "you must have REAL money to purchase REAL silver."

firefighter302's picture

APMEX is asking customers to sell back Silver Eagles at $3 over spot.

The comex silver reserves are questionable, shall we say?

The governement admits they are out of silver.

Physical silver is selling for (Eagles) $56+ online at the ususal suspects.

I cannot sell silver for dollars, at this time. Not until I see some significant changes for the better. And I do not have faith in Washington to do the responsible thing.

What I'd like to know is opinions on the differences in ETF at $48 and physical over $55.

What does this increasing spread suggest?

Firefighter302

"I will fear no evil, for Thou art with me."

Quixotic_Not's picture

If you're holding physical PMs, short of starvation don't let them go until:

A.  The U$D has collapsed and a NEW World Reserve currency has been created as a replacement.

B.  The Federal Reserve FRAUD has been decommissioned and a NORMAL interest rate environment has been re-established..

C.  The (D) & (R) Free Shit Empirehas imploded and an intelligent, rational and SANE region in North America re-establishes a government based on the Declaration of Independence (this would require you not being behind enemy lines).

Pssss...I have a feeling unless you're the last decade of life on Earth, you won't have to wait long, and your patience will be VASTLY rewarded  :-)

Anyone holding paper ANY FUCKIN' THING is nothin' but a chump!

disabledvet's picture

EASY there, tiger.  "All eyes on Japan."

Quixotic_Not's picture

As GM, errrr JAPAN goes, so goes the USA...

Got Ag puta?

P.S.  Why the feck doesn't the strike-through command work?

Stormdancer's picture

hmmm....I thought it was spelled "plata"?

 

 

*snicker*

Tail Dogging The Wag's picture

"If you're holding physical PMs, short of starvation don't let them go until"

Why would you compromise the food security of your family?

Buy farmland outside the US:

http://www.thorssoncapital.com/

Confuchius's picture

The US is already bankrupt and the dollar is already nearly worthless.

 

ANY increase in interest rates will consume ALL federal taxes just to pay interest.

HHow much would you expect rates to increase then?

FeralSerf's picture

"the dollar is already nearly worthless."

It only takes about 48 of them to get you an ounce of silver and less than 1,600 of them will get you an ounce of gold!   Worthless?  Not by a long shot.  You might want to take advantage of that deal ASAP.  It's not going to last forever.

"Man who stands on hill with mouth open will wait long time for roast duck to drop in." -- Confucius, BC 551-479

eisley79's picture
by Dangertime
on Fri, 04/29/2011 - 13:23

 

I don't want to argue, I want a rational explanation on what price silver should be and why.

----------------------------------------------------------------


 

O RLY?  Well let me see, i think in 5 minutes, it should be 48.5213545 for about 3 seconds, and then.....

 

You want other people to pick some arbitrary point because you are so ashamed of how owned your predictions got.  Well let me educate you:

 

Was silver going to be able to hold the rate of appreciation it was seeing?  No, I don't think so.  Is Silver an investment bubble of speculators, just waiting to crash? SURE IS NOT.  The real issue with Silver and Gold, is the USD.  The USD is a lie, and the lie is unraveling.  There will be many bumps along the way, and pull backs a plenty, but Silver is going to keep going up over the long term for as far as the eye can see.

 

The only thing that could pull it down significantly is the US Dollar going up big.  A Euro collapse, or US Interest rates rising could trigger a big push in the USD.  That would probably hurt silver pretty good in the short term, but cant change the fundamentals of the US or World economy, only delay the march forward. 

In the case of the former, a Euro collapse is possible, and probably the most significant threat to a suddne spike in the USD up.  The confetti masters will imagi-print any such issues away as long as they can.  In terms of the latter, US interest rates rising would be the absolute death knell of the US economy due to it being a complete debt based fantasy la-la-land.  So, I dont see that happening until the end of Shit Hitting the Fan, in a bid to maintain US Hegemony.  More likely, TPTB would try to bring in some new reserve, combining all the big currencies into one big piece of confetti to play with.

 

This projecting can go on and on.  The point is, 2008 was just the begining of the greatest depression in human history which is coming/started.  They ended so-called "free-market" capitalism in response to stave it off.  They then printed insane quantities of money as debt, lent it out, which were then used to hold up all the markets.  They are then trying to pay off that debt by devaluing the dollar (rise of physical metals, relative to their devaluing measuring tool the USD), to as low as they can get away with.  Eventually the other shoe is going to drop, dont kid yourself.  All the Countries, States, Cities, Corporations, and most of the people, are all in debt beyond what they can ever payoff, and are only hang on because interest rates are impossibly low, simply due to reserve status.  More and more debt needs to be created, just to maintain the status FAUX.  One of two things is going to happen, QE3 gets announces, metals soar even more. Or Two, interest rates rise and the world economy explodes again like in 2008, except nothing can hold it back this time, in which case metals will soar (As a TRUE flight to safety, with everything else becoming worthless).  Inflation or Deflation, metals=win, because they are simply staying the same, relative to the insanity around them.

 

So, keep pretending to make your little imagi-puts.  I'll keep buying and holding physical metals to give to my children.  Celebrate every time there is a slight pull back, and i'll continue to own you with your quotes of failure.  Then, when SHTF, remember this post and think.  Damn, instead of arguing for no reason on ZH about imaginary things I could have done with puts, I should have got a job, and actually bought something for real.  Something you can hold in your hand, and would be worth a lot of money in this new USD2, or BANCOR currency you keep hearing about.

ya dig?

Renfield's picture

To keep it simple:

I'd be more interested in a discussion of whether the correct price of silver should be HIGHER now, than its conventional 1/16th of gold price.

I've heard 1/15, 1/17 - but never really seen the issue of industrial use of silver addressed - whether that makes it more or less valuable as a currency than gold.

(As for the 'price' in USD or any other fiat - that's backwards of course. Makes as much sense as asking what the price of bread should be, in pine cones.)

eisley79's picture

i reposted my argument here because its like the article above was quoting me lol :)

but yes, i didnt want to get into the ratios with him, because FUNDAMENTALLY, it is the underlying problems of the world economy that are driving things.  Every"thing" is going to keep going up, and every "instrument" (read stock, bond, etc), is going to get wiped out.

when the real shit, hits the real fan, people will be fighting over paper clips  and rod iron fences like in weimar ;)

Stormdancer's picture

I thought you hit a lot of the important highlights in readable, understandable fashion.  I enjoyed it.

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Dangertime = one more troll

Don't bother with trolls, don't feed the trolls, ignore the trolls...

We have watched a secular move up in PMs for 11 years while the trolls have predicted the PM decline daily. That the trolls are desperate is obvious by there increasing numbers and the shrillness of their posts.

As long as the Fed continues to expand the monetary base at an astronomical rate PMs will continue their secular rise. The action in PMs is just beginning to get hot and is nowhere near a peak. Those holding PMs are few and will be among those with real assets on the other side of the catastrophy...and... Use your PM assets wisely when the time comes to deploy them.

Let the trolls go suck on their fiat...

Quixotic_Not's picture

Don't bother with trolls, don't feed the trolls, ignore the trolls...

It's far worse that that on ZH these days -- We've got numerous .GOV employees paid to counter-post against TRUTH; Agent Provacateurs attempting to spread PROPAGANDA, and just regular ol' The (D) & (R) Free Shit Empiretrolls GRASPING at the death of their dreams...

Lots of pure bullshit being posted on ZH as of late!

disabledvet's picture

"Is that New Jersey that just blew up?"

akak's picture

You noticed that, did ya?

You're far from the only one who has.

And no, I don't believe it is all just "a coincidence".

Renfield's picture

A lot more people reading and commenting too. ZH isn't only for the informed anymore.

Back when the comments were 'smarter', there weren't many people here either.

Me, I expect the comments will get even bullshittier as more and more of us former/sheep wake up and wander fuzzily around asking obvious questions and making tard comments. And when the REAL mass starts to shake itself awake, the comments here might not even be that literate. But on the whole maybe that's a good thing. Compared to only the informed 1.5% having a clue what's going on and keeping the chatter just amongst themselves.

I flunked math early and often in school, but here I don't care about sounding like a dope or bringing down the quality of the comments, so much as learning from you regulars. So my glass is half full...some are socks but a lot of us are just starting to wake up.

I'll admit that a more discerning CAPTCHA couldn't hurt, though.

akak's picture

That's a good point you make, about this forum probably now having a wider if shallower audience and membership.  And I would hardly say that you "sound like a dope" --- you certainly can compose a sentence (not to mention a paragraph --- I know, a what?) better than at least half of the regulars here.  Don't sell yourself short.

I never criticize anyone for not being as intelligent as another, only for not being willing to use whatever intelligence they do have to its full capacity.