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DOW 10,000!!!! Oh Wait, Make That 7,537

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Another great representation of the amazing loss of purchasing power by the US public are today's oblivious statements about the Dow at 10,000. While in absolute terms the Dow may cross whatever the Fed thinks is a necessary and sufficient mark before QE begins to taper off (Dow crosses 10k just as Treasury purchases expire), the truth is that over the past 10 years (the first time the DJIA was at 10,000) the dollar has lost 25% of its value. Therefore, we present the Dow over the last decade indexed for the DXY, which has dropped from 100 to about 75. On a real basis (not nominal) the Dow at 10,000 ten years ago is equivalent to 7,537 today! In other words, not only have we had a lost decade for all those who focus on the absolute flatness of the DJIA, but it is also a decade where the US Consumer has lost 25% of purchasing power from the perspective of stocks! You won't hear this fact on the MSM.

And if you want to be really scared, here is the comparable representation for the DJIA in ounces of gold. It cost about 30 ounces to buy the 10,000 Dow last time. Now it costs less than 10.

 


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Wed, 10/14/2009 - 15:14 | Link to Comment etrader
etrader's picture

You can almost hear Jimbo & MCC....

"Boo-ya bubba.... its still the same dollar in your pocket!!

 ....yee har 12K here we come!"

 

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 15:01 | Link to Comment Benthamite
Benthamite's picture

right, as long as people feel wealthier, what's the problem?  chalk one up for bernanke, geithner, llc.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 18:15 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 10/14/2009 - 14:27 | Link to Comment Ivanovich
Ivanovich's picture

Get your very own "Thank You, Banana Ben"  T-Shirt.

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 14:38 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

LOL.  They ruined my country and all I got was this T-shirt.

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 18:20 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 10/14/2009 - 18:30 | Link to Comment Gwynplaine (not verified)
Wed, 10/14/2009 - 19:06 | Link to Comment Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

Today on cnbc:

Bob Pisani: I'm here with Joe Ratterman, President of BATS, the third largest exchange. Joe, the Dow broke 10,000 have you seen any increase in volume?

Joe Ratterman: (silence)

 

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 19:29 | Link to Comment Unscarred
Unscarred's picture

You caught that too?  Says everything we need to know.

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 14:27 | Link to Comment pinkboxtrader
pinkboxtrader's picture

i hope there's as much fanfare when i wear my CL 100 hat.

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 14:30 | Link to Comment ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

True but his doesn't bode well for the Deflationist argument unless you consider the deflationary portion starting early March.

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 14:31 | Link to Comment crosey
crosey's picture

Gotta trade your ass off just to keep up!

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 14:32 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

does that mean the cnbc closing bell, circle jerk has been cancelled?

a rhetorical question since once can guarantee there is no "djREALLY 7537" hat. in the absence of a hat, the real number will not be reported on cnbc. 

seriously, stunning when faced with that stark truth. 

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 14:37 | Link to Comment etrader
etrader's picture

Amazingly Erin Bernett   was mumbling about 25% down in real terms before Jimbo

jumped in.

What a great shame Jimbo's been bumped........

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 15:33 | Link to Comment Unscarred
Unscarred's picture

Even more amazingly, Erin Burnett is the only female CNBC host who hasn't let her body go to complete shit! To continue this rally, I'm going long on whoever does the catering to the CNBC offices!

TD-  Time to tighten up the CAPTCHA (31 plus __ equals 37 ?!)

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 16:01 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 10/15/2009 - 11:36 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 10/14/2009 - 14:33 | Link to Comment chet
chet's picture

Well, as long as I never travel again, or buy anything imported, or made with imported parts, then I'll be just fine!  Is much of our stuff made in China?

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 14:35 | Link to Comment koaj
koaj's picture

stick with hookers and Coors and you'll be just fine

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 15:29 | Link to Comment Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

And look for the girl who considers a lavish date to be "a six pack of beer and some loud music".

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 14:33 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

teh bull rally is fee-nominal!

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 14:34 | Link to Comment VegasBD
VegasBD's picture

Dow will get down to 2-3oz of gold eventually.

One way or the other.

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 11:31 | Link to Comment Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

My people are saying, get out of the water before Oct 19.2009.

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 14:34 | Link to Comment stedanrac
stedanrac's picture

 ...over the past 10 years (the last time the DJIA was at 10,000) 

 

 Should read "the first time the DJIA was at 10,000".

That level has been criss crossed a couple of dozen times in the last decade. 

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 14:36 | Link to Comment TaroASSo
TaroASSo's picture

Can I say capital flight?

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 14:37 | Link to Comment phaesed
phaesed's picture

Oh, deflation will come, unfortunately the banks will be nice and liquid after having sold back all our shit to us at inflated prices and then down they'll go and we'll sell them all this nicely pumped stocks at bargain basement prices... then 7 months later, the market will skyrocket and the cycle continues.

 

Keep buying equities and sending our money to the corporations people! Don't buy Treasuries, buy high yield! Don't buy our country, make our dollar weaker!

We will never unite because we are too stupid and this country deserves to fail since no one wants it to win.

That's right, don't buy Treasuries, buy Wells Fargo FDIC insured paper!

Morons.

 

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 14:58 | Link to Comment Benthamite
Benthamite's picture

Quite the change in tone in the last 24 hours.

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 16:21 | Link to Comment phaesed
phaesed's picture

Oh no, I absolutely believe everyone should be buying Treasuries out their ass and completely fuck the banks due to capital ratio requirements, but nobody believes it so hey, what does it matter. I'll still make fun of people for sending money to China and then bitching about a weak dollar.

That's like taking a shit and complaining that it stinks.

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 14:38 | Link to Comment faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

I want my ten years back.

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 14:42 | Link to Comment phaesed
phaesed's picture

I want to understand how it ever got to be that we give the corporations our money and they give it to the government to tell them how to rule us.

 

Why the fuck do people still invest with these shitty companies?

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 16:52 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Because we all love a winner.

Seriously. Taking over the worlds most powerful democracy and turning into your personal demesne is one leet bit of work. It's all profit from there.

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 19:10 | Link to Comment phaesed
phaesed's picture

That's trading :P

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 14:39 | Link to Comment Dixie Normous
Dixie Normous's picture

Where would the Dow be if stocks weren't moved in and out?

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 15:25 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 10/14/2009 - 14:44 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 10/14/2009 - 21:02 | Link to Comment You Cant Handle...
You Cant Handle the Truth's picture

BINGO

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 14:45 | Link to Comment Ed Cormack
Ed Cormack's picture

I BOUGHT DOLLARS RIGHT NOW, PUT ALL MY MONEY IN U$D

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 09:16 | Link to Comment aus_punter
aus_punter's picture

sounds like the least crowded trade out there

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 14:46 | Link to Comment BlueStreak
BlueStreak's picture

What if GM were a dow component?

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 14:58 | Link to Comment Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Not just GM.

Now-worthless-piece-of-shit stocks like Eastman Kodak, Citigroup and Woolworth have also been dropped from the index to inflate its value.

 

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 14:56 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

So, it's more under valued that before I read this.?!!!!!!!

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 16:04 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 10/14/2009 - 17:10 | Link to Comment Abraham Snake
Abraham Snake's picture

It's more like the entire US was hit by a giant shrink ray, our neighbors, houses, businesses, and currency all look relatively normal to us inside our shrunken bubble. But if we were to ride a time machine back to 2000, everything would look giant, everyone would appear to be 10 feet tall.

The point is basically to take the 10K Dow party with a grain of salt. Our tape measure has been shrunk, and by gold standards, it looks like a doll toy in our hands. It's not saying the Dow is under valued, It's like saying 3' tall is the new 6'11".

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 16:14 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 10/14/2009 - 15:04 | Link to Comment digalert
digalert's picture

People should be mad as hell, instead they've got "DOW 10,000" ball caps over in the CNBS cheering section for cryin out loud.

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 15:12 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

You'd be celebrating, too, if you had beaten the stock market equivalent of the 1986 Chicago Bears.  I know this rally has hurt anyone who has stepped in front of it, but these dirty ass sell-side pumpers from Wall Street and CNBS have pulled off the improbable.  More important question:  Who was the first person of the CNBS set to mention that the hats need to go back into storage for "next time 'round".

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 15:14 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 10/15/2009 - 10:46 | Link to Comment blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

people are MAD as hell, but THEY are NOT watching CNBC.  Hey, keep wtching but don't buy the sponsors products. 

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 15:05 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 10/14/2009 - 15:10 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 10/14/2009 - 15:10 | Link to Comment koaj
koaj's picture

if ZH produced Dow 7537 hats, i think there would be some buyers

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 15:36 | Link to Comment Unscarred
Unscarred's picture

+10

I'll take two.

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 15:10 | Link to Comment chet
chet's picture

Someone just goosed it big time to get it over the mark.

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 15:12 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 10/14/2009 - 15:13 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 10/15/2009 - 11:01 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 10/14/2009 - 15:16 | Link to Comment mule65
mule65's picture

If it's only 7,537 then buy buy buy!

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 15:17 | Link to Comment mule65
mule65's picture

My friggin Pfizer is even taking off!  Woohoo!

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 15:22 | Link to Comment Jupiter
Jupiter's picture

I've spent the past two years overseas in Singapore, and let me tell you that Asia is hurting.

The recovery in commodities prices is somewhat unsustainable even with the pace of production contraction.  The commodities indices are being pushed up because of a sinking dollar and stimulus plan procurement of raw materials by East Asia.

Without question, I will be watching the gold and silver markets very carefully.  Of course, we must also be aware of the "comex pirates" who have massive short positions in gold and silver, on and off balance sheet, the most prominent being JPM and Goldman.  I believe there is an implicit "bailout" assumption from the Fed and other central banks if their shorts start turning sour in terms of more capital to keep a ceiling on the price.

More on this later.

 

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 19:28 | Link to Comment phaesed
phaesed's picture

Nice! How's that Wesley Scar?

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 06:44 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 10/14/2009 - 15:23 | Link to Comment BlueStreak
BlueStreak's picture

DJIA data from Wiki:

March 17, 1997
AlliedSignal Incorporated
Aluminum Company of America 
American Express Company 
AT&T Corporation
Boeing Company
Caterpillar Incorporated 
Chevron  Company
Coca-Cola Company 
Du Pont
Eastman Kodak Company
Exxon Corporation
General Electric Company
General Motors Corporation
Goodyear
Hewlett-Packard Company
International Business Machines
International Paper
Johnson & Johnson
J.P. Morgan & Company
McDonald’s Corporation
Merck & Company, Inc.
Minnesota Mining & Manufacturing (3M)
Philip Morris Companies Inc.
Procter & Gamble Company
Sears Roebuck & Company
Travelers Group 
Union Carbide
United Technologies Corporation
Wal-Mart Stores Incorporated
Walt Disney Company

June 8, 2009
3M (Minnesota Mining & Manufacturing) Company
Alcoa Incorporated
American Express Company
AT&T Incorporated 
Bank of America Corporation
Boeing Corporation
Caterpillar Incorporated
Chevron Corporation
Cisco Systems, Inc.
Coca-Cola Company
Dupont
Exxon Mobil Corporation
General Electric Company
Hewlett-Packard Company
Home Depot Incorporated
Intel Corporation
International Business Machines
Johnson & Johnson
J.P. Morgan Chase & Company
Kraft Foods Inc.
McDonald's Corporation
Merck & Company, Incorporated
Microsoft Corporation
Pfizer Incorporated 
Procter & Gamble Company
Travelers Companies
United Technologies Corporation
Verizon Communications Inc.
Wal-Mart Stores Incorporated
Walt Disney Company

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 15:35 | Link to Comment Dixie Normous
Dixie Normous's picture

Great stuff.

Look Ma, no AIG.

How about Travelers doing the round trip, awsome.

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 15:41 | Link to Comment Unscarred
Unscarred's picture

Once those folks at Dow Jones & Co. realized that old-school industrials like Goodyear were the sole reason that the DJIA was lagging, the technology bubble was on it's way.

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 10:38 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Name one of those companies that hasn't engaged in antisocial or downright illegal behavior. Kraft is selling 9 cents worth of wheat as 3 dollar boxes of crackers.

McDonalds kills people.

Wal-Mart destroys the very structure of societies.

Microsoft can't go one hour without trying to fuck someone over much less one day.

Walt Disney assists in all the cognitive dissonance of society by making touchy feely stories that do not match reality at all and then has the gall to sell them for way way too much. It's like monetized collective energy drug usage.

Pfizer is dying to be the worlds first weapon of mass destruction drug industy able to destroy 100 million livers in a single product cycle.

etc etc.

PS Traveler's WILL go bankrupt. There is 0 chance of it surviving to 2011.

 

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 19:31 | Link to Comment Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

+100 thanks...

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 15:24 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 10/14/2009 - 17:36 | Link to Comment Gunther
Gunther's picture

What range are you talking about?

The dow/gold ratio topped at 40 ish and bottomed at  around 1. The actual 9.45 is somewhere in the lower range.

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 15:39 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 10/14/2009 - 15:42 | Link to Comment rhinotrader
rhinotrader's picture

Still short but damn, Bernanke has engineered the biggest rally of all time. How much longer. I know GS will blow out numbers and then it's anyone's guess.

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 15:43 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 10/14/2009 - 15:43 | Link to Comment Spitzer
Spitzer's picture
commaaaan DUPONT  , get to 39.73
Wed, 10/14/2009 - 15:47 | Link to Comment laughing_swordfish
laughing_swordfish's picture

Constant dollar valuation of  DJIA is a good idea.

We should NOT be celebrating.

Look out Argentina here we come!

 

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 15:48 | Link to Comment mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

When it takes about 3 ounces of gold to buy the Dow, I will start selling my gold. I have no idea if that means Dow 15,000, and gold $5000, or Dow 6000 and gold $2000.

 

Mon, 10/19/2009 - 21:19 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 10/14/2009 - 15:49 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 10/14/2009 - 15:51 | Link to Comment orca
orca's picture

7537 you got to be kiddin' me. Here's Dow 10k in EUR October 99 - October 2009.
Oct99 EUR/USD 1,18 - Dow 8475
Oct09 EUR/USD 1,49 - Dow 6711
Dow 10k has not been breached the whole decade, even at 14k in USD.

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 06:13 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 10/14/2009 - 15:53 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 10/14/2009 - 21:03 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 10/15/2009 - 06:47 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 10/14/2009 - 16:06 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 10/14/2009 - 16:08 | Link to Comment Margin Call
Margin Call's picture

You know what one of the best feelings is?

To watch the market skyrocket, to not have significant funds long or short....

...and not really give a shit. 

When the overarching value assessment of the market is that it's a good time to buy anything because the line has been going up, I'm much happier staying far away from this gong show. I'm the sort of investor who likes to put money at a decent price in good companies that, you know, actually produce something of value to society, and so this is not my time.

Maybe next year. Maybe in five years. But not now. This is the time of the baboons in Dow 10,000 hats. Let them have their fun, I've got better things to do with my time and life. 

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 21:20 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 10/14/2009 - 16:41 | Link to Comment bb5
bb5's picture

Thanks for this post. Two charts say it all.

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 17:01 | Link to Comment litoralkey
litoralkey's picture

How about a chart that is DOW Total return analysis (TRA) X DXY , 10 year chart, or even a 30 year chart.

 

Don't think the DOW in DOWXDXY is a valid numerator for drawing any analytical value.

 

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 17:01 | Link to Comment Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

Dollar to Euro 1.50 Let's Party

Wed, 10/14/2009 - 18:58 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 10/14/2009 - 18:58 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 10/14/2009 - 19:32 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 09/10/2009 - 23:25 | Link to Comment TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

Dow 10,000 , in terms of the real backing of the USD, is also down significantly.

Dow 10,000 in 1999 was worth about 22,935 pounds of lead, but now it is worth about 9615 pounds...a 58% decrease.

More precisely, the last time the Dow crossed 10,000 in the "good" direction, on October 2004, it was worth 55,555 rounds of xm193 rounds (.223 for the m16) now it is worth 21,276 such rounds...a 61.7% decrease in just five years!

Finally in terms of oil...in 1999, at the time of a single Dow Jones Industrial average was worth about 650 barrels of oil, Oct 2004 it was 188, and now it is 132 barrels.

Ultimately, I get the feeling these measures of inflation are the real reason for the cold sweat running down the backs of our politicians and technocrats.

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 04:57 | Link to Comment yellow submariner
yellow submariner's picture

So Lloyd Blankfein is corect: Stocks are still cheap!

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 08:05 | Link to Comment Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

 

Will the USD rally when the bear market rally ends ?

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 08:15 | Link to Comment Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

try to picture this paradox. lets say that the dollars starts falling at the rate seen in fall of 08 in the equities, the equities start falling at the same rate,and Bernanke starts to print like crazy on a daily basis. Also, lets say the DXY gets hammer like a mofo losing 20% in a day or two; where do you think people and institutions will hoard their money ? Bingo into dollar denominated bonds and treasury bills. Even if the death of the dollar is imminent and easily seen, it is still THE only safe heaven in this economic crisis. Of course we could say that the money will be hoarded into metals; but the thing is; there doesn't exist nearly enough quantity of metals, as seen with the recent development in gold futures where central banks needed to give their reserves to private banks for private banks to deliver them.

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 09:25 | Link to Comment aus_punter
aus_punter's picture

in the situation you describe margin calls will be rampant and since margin is mostly denominated in dollars, the demand for dollars will be enormous

all this crap in the MSM about the death of the dollar is a giant bear trap IMHO

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 09:29 | Link to Comment 2500saturdays
2500saturdays's picture

What Cheeky said +

Over at martinarmstrong.org there is a good read.
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Deflation-or-Inflation-Which-is-More-Likely-9-29-09.pdf

Marty says:

deflation if you have confidence in the underlying asset.
inflation if you do not have confidence in the underlying asset.

You might want to get over early if you want to read it as yesterday the bandwidth alloc for his "site" was exceeded.

 

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 09:37 | Link to Comment Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

you can find all of Marty's past and future writing here. this chick is a friend of his and she has a direct and firsthand approach to his writings. http://www.scribd.com/kzuur58

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 10:49 | Link to Comment Gunther
Gunther's picture

Cheeky,
…there is not enough metal…
that could turn out in a few ways.
One, everybody believes that metal is not the solution and buys treasury bonds or bills.
Or, metal is in short supply, better get some before it gets more expensive and the dollar looses all value. That could trigger an enormous short squeeze and run on the metal(s.)
Anticipating what will happen is guessing group psychology on an international level. Imagine savers in any country panicking into gold and the resulting price action or a central bank seeing that coming and dumping the countries' gold into that panic.
Or, somebody feels cheated by central banks printing money and votes no by buying metal.
Economic warfare could make this even more messy. Imagine an unfriendly central bank calling the bluff on the gold shorts with intention to do damage.

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Wed, 02/23/2011 - 02:33 | Link to Comment shawnlee
shawnlee's picture

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Wed, 04/20/2011 - 05:55 | Link to Comment shawnlee
shawnlee's picture

I have an idea. If all we care about is jacking up the nominal value of the indexes without regard to currency decay or the underlying fundamentals, why not price the indexes in ZIMBABWEAN DOLLARS. We can really have some fun then - think about it: Dow in the 100's of thousands - might even crack a millie;
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kummar's picture

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kummar's picture

I have an idea. If all we care about is jacking up the nominal value of the indexes without regard to currency decay or the underlying fundamentals, why not price the indexes in ZIMBABWEAN DOLLARS. We can really have some fun then - think about it: Dow in the 100's of thousands - might even crack a millie;pmp exam questions | security+ exam questions | server+ exam questions | sscp exam questions | vmware exam questions | sun exam questions | scjp exam questions | scwcd exam questions | scbcd exam questions | scmad exam questions

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