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Drop In Silver Attributed To $1 Million 37% Downside Bet On SLV

Tyler Durden's picture


With everyone transfixed by the relentless move higher in silver, stories, myths and virtually anything is used a catalyst to explain any move lower in the precious metal. While earlier there already were two rumors that the COMEX would imminently hike gold and silver margins again (so for untrue) what is true, and what many are attributing the move in silver to, is what according to some is an outsized option bet that SLV will drop 37% by July. Bloomberg reports: "A trader’s almost $1 million bet that an exchange-traded fund tracking silver will plunge 37 percent by July was today’s biggest single options trade on U.S. exchanges as futures on the metal reached a 31-year high. The 100,000 options to buy 100 shares each of the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) at $25 by July changed hands at the ask price of about 10 cents and exceeded the open interest of 6,054 outstanding contracts before today, indicating that a buyer of a new bearish position initiated the transaction. The ETF rose to the highest intraday level since trading began five years ago, $40.33, before erasing gains. It fell 0.5 percent to $39.67 at 12:54 p.m. It hasn’t closed below $25 since November."


“It’s definitely a massive downside bet on silver,” said Henry Schwartz, president of Trade Alert LLC, a New York-based provider of options-market data and analytics. “It’s so far out of the money that the buyer is probably just looking for a moderate pullback because a $3 retracement to where it was in March could double the position to $2 million.”

Silver for May delivery in New York climbed as much as 3.4 percent to $41.975 an ounce, the highest level since January 1980, when futures reached a record $50.35. It last traded at $41.33. Silver, where half of global consumption is industrial, has been rising because it benefits from a rebounding global economy as well as demand for a haven, according to UBS AG.

Of course, such a simplistic analysis certainly ignores what are likely numerous other components to a trade that is almost certainly multi-handed. After all let's not forget that it was none other than Morgan Stanley on Friday explaining why there appears to be a sizable short-gamma position in the market, which is substantially higher than just a $1 mm notional exposure, and which if anything, is a far more potent driver in the price of silver. Furthermore, if a $1mm bet is sufficient bet to push the market in either direction, then it is safe to say that there is absolutely no liquidity in the PM market whatsoever.

We are confident much more will emerge in the story of who is betting what and how much on future silver moves before June 30 comes.

Lastly, anybody out there heard of... gasp... hedging?


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Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:08 | 1158581 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Im glad this bet was taken as we can proceed to BTFD. Currently, wouldnt touch a silver long above 39, but hopefully we can see lower px to get back into.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:25 | 1158661 Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

NO QE3 = Higher rates = Silver collapse

That is conventional wisdom. Conventional wisdom is often wrong.

Besides, I've got plenty time to wait. There's no way we're going to stop printing money. Just a matter of time.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:31 | 1158685 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Just unloaded some of the puts I bought on Friday up 40%...


Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:40 | 1158712 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL Methman, now only 400 more such trades in a row to get back what you lost buying puts ever since $20.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:41 | 1158723 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Contango, bitchez!

No more backwardation = the beginning of the end for silver.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:45 | 1158750 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

= the beginning of the end?


weren't you saying a few days ago that the reasons we all give for high silver are fundamentally sound, but just that the price is overshooting itself? silver is exceedingly useful (try eating an ipad without it), exceedingly rare, and increasingly hoarded. no amount of technical analysis will stop me from buying the fucking dip. silver: on the way to the moon for fundamental reasons. 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:57 | 1158773 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Oh yeah, such great fundamentals.  Only 50% of the silver we mine is used industrially and the rest is speculatively hoarded by ZH readers and ETFs.

On yeah, and the largest ETF owns a half years mine production.   Such great fundamentals.

And production costs are between $5 and $10 bucks an ounce.

Face it, the price got ahead of itself because of all the speculative buying and hoarding...  and it will soon be back below $20 where it belongs.


The REASONS to buy silver were correct (dollar devaluation, QE, etc), but the price was WRONG.   Just like in the boom...  the internet did change the world, but buying at $100/share was a big mistake.


Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:58 | 1158799 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

How is this for a prediction


by Burnbright 
on Tue, 04/05/2011 - 11:31


Just wait for the next dip, they will be calling a top. It is actually kind of funny cause they are a good indication of when to buy. 

by Dr. Porkchop 
on Tue, 04/05/2011 - 11:49


If we could have their comments quantified on the level of trollishness and chart it, we could have the PM Troll Buy Indicator Index.

by Burnbright 
on Sun, 04/10/2011 - 23:55


I bet we get a dip here soon at either right below 42 or 43 followed by a margin hike announcement an hour later. So more than likely by tuesday. 

I was off by the margin hike announcement but the day still isnt over yet.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:01 | 1158829 yipcarl
yipcarl's picture

Look peeps most of you know this.  If in fact the Mass Media is telling us someone is taking a huge silver short that means to buy the F out of it.  THe reason....If the big dogs were really sellling silver, you wouldn't know they sold a single share, in fact there would be some news about them buying it.  


Burnbright it right on it.  Silver 10 bucks higher here we come. 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 19:47 | 1159663 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

I was buying SLV for some time, but have been selling into this latest run-up for a couple of months and feeling stupid as it keeps running up beyond reason.  Meanwhile DXY keeps diving...  I don't see any good options for my paper assets.  I am diversified with plenty of phys and other tangibles, and even farmland, etc.  Still, I don't like the outlook for my children in any asset class.   This is a great forum, but how do you get ahead in a decline of an empire?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 22:05 | 1160053 yipcarl
yipcarl's picture

You think you have a viable answer, hit me up. 

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 01:12 | 1160638 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

"how do you get ahead in a decline of an empire?" selling guns, ammo and rope, lots of rope!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:02 | 1158822 JoeSexPack
JoeSexPack's picture

$5/ounce production cost means those producers are a great buy.

If you're honest, for once, then a link would help your case.

If you're lying, again, talk is cheap & compulsive liars are still losers.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:13 | 1158893 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Just pull up the financial statments of any silver producer...  problem is that it is hard to find one that has gone fully hedged at these levels. 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:55 | 1159060 Temporis
Temporis's picture

So when does it stop Mathman? Silver at $40? Silver at $50? $60?

Call it... right here right now.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:17 | 1159131 tmosley
tmosley's picture

He already did.  He claimed $34 was the top.

Also, it's funny how he brags about his 40% gain on his last trade, but says nothing about all of the 100% losses that preceded it.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:26 | 1159326 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Oh yeah me too! I totally went all in ZSL on Friday at its very lowest low of ever lower and lower lows. And, depending on which way the market moves tomorrow, I will let you know what I did today the day after. (Hint: I've already won!)

Ghod how I love the interwebs: You just cannot lose.

All kidding aside, we all knew MethMom would be back spewing his asshat rote the moment there was any sort of naturally occuring retracement. What a predictable putz.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 19:59 | 1159693 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

Wank-Wank, I'm a Tank!

Heard all this shite before...allow me to let everyone on ZH in on a little secret...come closer to the screen...come-on, closer...***whispering***'s a little #1 secret about Silver and many other commodities you actually already know very well, but seem to forget...***whispering very quietly in your ear***...since the modern world has never been in this situation before, ever, why do the so-called experts claim to still know which way is up and which way is down, how trends will go this way "for sure", then that way "for sure"...ask yourself, what is all that based upon since we've never been here before...***Ultra quiet now*** all those who claim to know what will happen in this environment, especially when we don't even know if any Silver mines will still be alive after a massive post QE credit crunch, or worse, a collapse, how about you tell them to SHUT THE FUCK UP!!!

The only rule that counts in this environment is dead fuckin simple, and you damn-well know its' true...when going long on PMs etc, price is dictated by fear only...the dips and peaks along the way are the Weekend Warriors trying to gleen a buck out along the way. Fear will drive a PM bubble, no different than the fear-based housing bubble fiasco. This is common dog-fuck!

So, go ahead an believe the weekend warrior try-hard market manipulators on ZH if you like...who for some reason don't seem to be getting million dollar bunuses on Wall Street, perhaps because of some obscure reason like, they haven't been discovered as yet (LOL), personally, this shit is simple; buy long, stay long, the 'Fear' is still to come! Once the dust settles (Nuclear Fall-out), buy farms.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 21:23 | 1159966 Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture


I'm long silver, but that was good.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 00:05 | 1160310 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

Might as well stick a Parrot on my shoulder and call me John; that's how long on Silver I am...well I thought that was funny at any rate.


Mon, 04/11/2011 - 21:48 | 1160014 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Uh funny. We have 100 years of fed economic activity under our belt. That's 4 generations. In 4 generations if you can't learn anything you're not paying attention.

The trolls are easy to figure out.

1999 fed mint sells 5 million ounces of silver eagles.

2011 fed mint sells 40 million ounces of silver eagles.

Of course they are screaming it's going to crash.

Guess what? Religious nuts are trying to start this big wave of judgement day is may 21, 2011 or some shit. Welcome to the mushroom. The guy running the theory had an old theory that it was september 1994.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 00:08 | 1160439 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Haha! 'Sif Wall St. would hire anyone who has been daily kicking them in the ballz for the last decade with Au-toed, silver-shanked boots... oh, and I know a farm is (shudder) work and all that, but man, you city types will never know just how shitty Monstrous Santa produce really is until you've tried the veggies from my family's garden.

Though, speaking of other things that Wall St. coke headz spend their days endeavouring not to 'discover', I suppose if anyone reading this really is a 'million dollah' bonus blood sucker squeezing the life out of your country you may have inadvertently given us and ours some gold for that criminally overpriced meal you ate at 'Chauve à Col Roulé'; I sincerely hope the waiters threw in the expectorate gratis, 'cuz I'm sure they charged a hero like you extra for the urine content of your coffee.


Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:14 | 1159116 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

So you claim to have the secret info that the miner's let only you know?


You can't be serious to think that the cost to pull the stuff out of the ground would stay that regular even with fuel prices staying the same, which anyone that actually own's their own vehicle can look around and tell you that fuel prices are up quite a bit as well.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:02 | 1158839 Lets_Eat_Ben
Lets_Eat_Ben's picture

Hey Math Man I gotta say you have some balls and you stick to your guns. I mean for someone to stay bearish on an asset that's performed the way silver has, takes an impressive amount of self-assurance.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:17 | 1158914 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Shorting the NASDAQ at 4000 would have looked like a stupid trade at first too...

It's hard to call the exact top of a parabolic bubble like silver.  But we are pretty damn close now.

Thank god for puts... limited downside and huge upside means you can just keep reloading.

Why would you buy silver here?  You have a couple of bucks of upside and more than $20 of downside...


Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:29 | 1158967 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

the hunt blowout top, inflation adjusted is in the mid 200s. that was artificial scarcity. we keep dropping tomahawk missiles with 7kg of silver solder on libya. china and india are developing a ravenous appetite for consumer goods (mmm delicious ipad). we're about to see a huge solar rollout, in addition to silver's traditional uses (medical, mirrors, water purification and oh as an inflation hedge against the rampant debasement we're seeing on every continent). all of which (other than as bullion) is non-recoverable. peak silver is real.


so you keep believing there's a $2 upside, dude. i think silver: gold is going 5:1 by the end of the decade and 1:5 by the end of the century. fuck the olympics.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:43 | 1159210 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Silver: Rhodium of the 22nd century.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:56 | 1159268 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Lol @ SGR at 1:5.

I mean i know its nice to reassure yourself with random digits, but come on. Youre absolutely right, the olympics would never be the same.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:04 | 1159307 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

competitors now get a medal made from stuck-together federal reserve notes.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:31 | 1158976 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture


"You have a couple of bucks of upside and more than $20 of downside"

Works for me; bought mostly in the $13 to $15 range.

Also, if you were so certain you were correct, you wouldn't be wasting your time arguing on Zero Hedge. You'd be quietly putting your life savings into ZSL.

Anyway, once silver takes out it's 1980 highs, you'll disappear just like all the other anti-PM trolls...



Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:33 | 1159177 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

Yes! Why is it the trolls exhibit such altruism? "I just want to assist you all"

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:33 | 1159176 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture


Stop trying to be right.  Mathman may have a lower percentage chance to be right, but the average size of his wins from taking such trades is tremendous.


Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:30 | 1159412 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Bingo.  I can afford to keep reloading my puts until I'm right...  and when I'm right I make multiples of my initial invesment.

But I'll be right soon enough.  Silver below $20 by the summer.

Even if you're a die hard long, you should still be buying puts as protection.  SO CHEAP....



Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:54 | 1159492 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

You'll keep you're perfect record.

Being right exactly 0 times in a row.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 19:18 | 1159564 duncecap rack
duncecap rack's picture

I like calls better. Then tend to pay off more often these days.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 22:37 | 1160182 hamstercheese
hamstercheese's picture

So meth are suggesting to sell silver and buy Federal Reserve Notes..?? Sell something tangible for paper??  You think the FRN's are going up in value? Not buying it....people aren't buying silver to make money, they are doing it to preserve purchasing power...if you believe silver is going to $20/oz then food and energy prices will also be cut in half...when denominated in FRN's...not gonna happen, all this government spending has to come from something....more money printing...more until it is no longer accepted..then you enter a world of barter I guess.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:05 | 1158841 Lets_Eat_Ben
Lets_Eat_Ben's picture

Hey Math Man I gotta say you have some balls and you stick to your guns. I mean for someone to stay bearish on an asset that's performed the way silver has, takes an impressive amount of self-assurance.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:04 | 1158849 Lets_Eat_Ben
Lets_Eat_Ben's picture

Hey Math Man I gotta say you have some balls and you stick to your guns. I mean for someone to stay bearish on an asset that's performed the way silver has, takes an impressive amount of self-assurance.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:06 | 1158851 Lets_Eat_Ben
Lets_Eat_Ben's picture

Hey Math Man I gotta say you have some balls and you stick to your guns. I mean for someone to stay bearish on an asset that's performed the way silver has, takes an impressive amount of self-assurance.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:17 | 1158907 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

I get it.  I get it.  You are totally impressed with his gun and balls.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:30 | 1158970 Temporis
Temporis's picture

I got the same impression

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:42 | 1159011 emsolý
emsolý's picture

How many balls could he have?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:59 | 1159906 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

i think the real question is how many alt troll handles "math man" has.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:58 | 1159066 Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

May as well just change his name to Lets_Eat_Balls and shove the barrel of a gun up his butt!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:25 | 1158940 thecoloredsky
thecoloredsky's picture

Math Man

When did sell for $100/share? Best I can tell it sold at $14/share at its high. The IPO was $11.

Stop posting bullshit.


Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:58 | 1159270 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 But, if he stops posting bullshit; he'll have to remain silent; he doesn't know anything but bullshit; and if he stops typing altogether, he'll get in trouble cause he told his mother he was doing his homework in the basement.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:36 | 1158998 r101958
r101958's picture

Nice try......but no cigar.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:44 | 1159027 Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

Yeah, your right. Your always right. All hail Math Man!!!! I don't know why you even hang around this site with all the pathetic and nonsensical drivel about silver going to the moon. I think we are all indebted to you and should sell all our PM holdings right now. Seriously though, if you don't agree with 90% of the comments why do you stay? Seems rather pigheaded to me, either that or your just a contrarian that likes to ruffle feathers. Either way good luck, if TSHTF you'll need it.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:55 | 1159038 SRSrocco
SRSrocco's picture

Math Man has a point, unforunately it is a dull one.  Many what I label ANAL-ISTS probably agree with what MathMan stated above.  Sure it is true that CASH COSTS for many silver producers are between $5-$10 an ounce but these are the companies who have high ORE GRADES as well as large tonnage per day.

US Silver Corp had unaudited cash cost per silver ounce produced after by-product credits was $13.50 for the year ended December 31, 2010.  If you take out the by-product credits, I imagine the cash costs were probably over $15 an ounce.  Cash costs do not account for capital expenditures, drilling budgets etc and etc.

There are a good bunch of lousy SILVER ANAL-ISTS out there.  I am not going to mention their names but they also think silver is OVERVALUED.  Some have stated that silver is in a bubble and needs to correct down to $20-$25....same with Math Man.

What I would like to know....WHERE THE HELL HAVE THE IQ's GONE?  Don't these so called anal-ists realize the FED is buying $100 billion in US Treasuries a month?  Do they not realize when you go to foreign countries a good portion of retail businesses no longer take DOLLARS??? 

Silver is not in a bubble.....and it is not OVERBOUGHT.  When the US Dollar finally dies taking down the US Treasury market with it.....and price of Gold and Silver flies towards the heavens, we won't hear a PEEP out of the ANAL-IST CLOWNS who thought it was overbought.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:08 | 1159101 MrSilverAG
MrSilverAG's picture

"The REASONS to buy silver were correct (dollar devaluation, QE, etc), but the price was WRONG.   Just like in the boom...  the internet did change the world, but buying at $100/share was a big mistake."


You sure sound a lot like Fed Shill Stewart Baxter -

He says nearly the exact same words.   That is twice now you two are basically reading from the exact same script.  Shill much?


Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:20 | 1159141 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

Ha! they are reading the same script? instead of copycat, copytroll?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:26 | 1159388 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Funny thing is I made those comments weeks ago...  and many of the comments on that page were literally copy and pasted from posts I've made in the past.   I don't really mind having a copy cat. 

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.




Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:48 | 1159465 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture



Thanks for clarifying that, Stewart.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 19:11 | 1159550 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

So your are Pro-FED, Moth Mom, as well:


You guys have NO IDEA what you ask for. You are enjoying life thanks to the FED. You can't even imagine how bad things will get without it. Fine, enjoy your conspiracy theories, it doesn't matter anyway. ... The FED has only helped you by managing the financial system, think how bad the crash would be if they didn't exist?


Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:40 | 1159834 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Not my words, but they ring true.


Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:25 | 1159790 Exposer of Inte...
Exposer of Internet Shills's picture

STEWIE the shill.  A big F'n retarded loser.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:27 | 1159403 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

Jonny B..   Welcome back.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:59 | 1159512 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

I miss still Harry Wanker, now he was a serious investor...

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:14 | 1159698 akak
akak's picture

Meth-addled Mothman states:

Oh yeah, such great fundamentals.  Only 50% of the silver we mine is used industrially and the rest is speculatively hoarded by ZH readers and ETFs.

A gross and blatant lie.  Try more like 85-90% being used industrially, asswipe --- as any cursory investigation of silver market fundamentals would demonstrate.

You are nothing but a maniacal, malicious pro-Establishment troll, desperately defending your (pay)masters by feebly attacking that which most exposes their corruption, hypocrisy and lies, the physical metals markets.

Also, it is instructive to note that the obvious, agenda-driven, pro-Establishment, anti-PM trolls such as MothMan literally swarm any thread discussing the precious metals, but ONLY at or near the top of the thread --- a pattern I have noted with unceasingly regularity ---  clearly in order to obfuscate, misdirect and discourage the discussion of precious metals and economic/monetary collapse.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:42 | 1159842 Math Man
Math Man's picture


Industrial silver uses were 487.4 million ounces vs supply of 1056.8 million ounces in 2010.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 03:30 | 1160074 akak
akak's picture

Only 50% of the silver we mine is used industrially and the rest is speculatively hoarded by ZH readers and ETFs.

Not only are you a blatant, malicious liar, but you are illiterate as well; from the same source, the following figures can clearly be found:

2010 total mine production:  736 Million ounces

2010 total fabrication demand, minus jewelry and coins:  610 Million ounces (83% of mine production)


MothMan, leave this forum NOW --- you have been thoroughly, completely and unequivocally discredited and revealed as the obvious paid Establishment shill and anti-precious metals troll that you are.


Tue, 04/12/2011 - 04:54 | 1160792 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Fucking blow me!

What part of industrial applications  were 487.4 million ounces vs total supply of 1056.8 million ounces (or 46%) in 2010 did you not understand...   I'm glad you decided to include photography and silverware and ignore scrap production.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 13:15 | 1162083 akak
akak's picture

MothMan, you are truly a disingenuous, dishonest, lying son of a bitch.

Let me repost your original quote:

Only 50% of the silver we mine is used industrially and the rest is speculatively hoarded by ZH readers and ETFs.

And let me emphasize just what silver you originally referred to: that fraction of the total THAT IS MINED ANNUALLY that is used industrially.  I clearly demonstrated that that figure was 83% in 2010 (and even higher in previous years), so your attempt to poormouth silver by claiming that only around 50% is used in any given year, and 50% "hoarded", is obviously just another in a long line of your anti-silver propaganda soundbites and pro-Establishment lies.

Cass Sunstein is not going to be happy with you, I think.  Better start looking for another line of work ---- you clearly suck as a hired troll. Save yourself further embarrassment, you lying, malevolent, truth-hating bastard, and leave this forum NOW.


Mon, 04/11/2011 - 23:31 | 1160405 SilverDOG
SilverDOG's picture

So how do you "price" silver?

"Dollar devaluation, price wrong, back below $20; the reasons to buy silver were correct"

So how do you price silver?

A comic you are.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:00 | 1158820 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

End for SLV perhaps, has nothing to do with physical silver in Monetize Nation.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:12 | 1159329 Exposer of Inte...
Exposer of Internet Shills's picture

"the beginning of the end for silver."


YOU are such an OBVIOUS SHILL  it's PATHETIC.  I see most folks here already know this so go ahead and waste your time here.  It accomplishes 2 purposes


1) You're not on some other forum where they are less informed

2) You're comic relief for the 99.99% of everyone here who KNOWS you're a shill

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:15 | 1159760 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

"No more backwardation = the beginning of the end for silver."

I will remind Methane that gold slipped into backwardation, and then back into contango in 2009--and then soared to new record high after new record high.

What a twit.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:44 | 1158746 Michael
Michael's picture

Nothing ever goes up or down in a strait line except the Federal Reserve Corporation's balance sheet. If I had a million to throw around I'd buy a May call @ $50 right now. The FED will never stop monetizing the debt or raise interests rates ever again till they are physically abolished which is their own end. BTFD.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:31 | 1159169 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

Yup, agreed. Ben Bernank has chosen print to infinity (and beyond) that is the course we have before us. I can't wait to see the financiers wiped off the Earth...

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:18 | 1159766 JonNadler
JonNadler's picture
by Math Man
on Fri, 02/25/2011 - 17:34


But it still remains below Monday's peak.

Face it.  Silver is over.

It ran 70% in six months, but it only costs $5 bucks to dig it out the ground.

It'll be back below $20 soon enough.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:22 | 1159776 akak
akak's picture

MothMan is clearly paid by the Fed and/or the IMF for his number of lame anti-silver posts, and not for their logical content, which is habitually nil.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:24 | 1159149 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Agreed about continuing to print.  But does that have to happen all at once?  What good is inside information if everyone can guess at what is going to happen?  Everyone is long silver and short the dollar, and that includes retail. 

Is retail ever allowed to win?

How about the dollar rallies, and commodities fall, just long enough to upset inflationary expectations and screw retail?  With that over, the dollar resumes its downward drift.  Retail fails miserably and only the banks, who have the inside skinny win. 

Isn't the market changing course to screw the most people the most likely scenario?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:47 | 1159452 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

But everyone isn't long silver. There may be a lot of people long paper silver, but there certainly are not a lot of people long physical silver, because there isn't enough physical to supply a mass long position.

A pitiful million bucks is "a massive downside bet"? What doofus said that? A million dollar short on paper silver is some guy with BPH trying to piss in the ocean.

Methane is welcome to his little options scraps. Those of us who recognized the value in silver at $4.20 are up 960% on the trade.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:31 | 1158687 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

Math Man = Troll = Living in Mom's basement = masturbates to Little League World Series

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:46 | 1158753 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture


ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!!!!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:52 | 1158782 Manthong
Manthong's picture

"Trader".. $1Mil bet.. wild out of the money... hmmm..  Why am I immediately thinking "walking around money" for a government troll to shake the silver tree?

That's crazy thinking, isn't it?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:34 | 1158980 Creed
Creed's picture

altho I loathe your user name...:)...that's exactly what I was thinking

I think more upside then POP goes the air from the balloon until QEIII is announced Aug/Sept



"Trader".. $1Mil bet.. wild out of the money... hmmm..  Why am I immediately thinking "walking around money" for a government troll to shake the silver tree?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 21:29 | 1159979 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Thank you. This pseudonym does produce gratifying reactions of disgust on occasion.

Actually, it's a word from an ancient Chinese dialect meaning “log and hammock”.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:13 | 1159112 PenchantForHoarding
PenchantForHoarding's picture

LOL!  So exhausting reading this nonsense.  To begin with, top calling PM's is a pretty counterproductive sell on a site like this... like me posting "I hate Jesus!  I hate guns!" on an NRA blog.  I can appreciate an alternate perspective, but trolling is trolling.  It's like trying to argue with a surly senior citizen that the grass is, indeed, green. 

I guess I'll go open up my safe and drag all that worthless junk metal down to the coin store...

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:52 | 1159248 55 men
55 men's picture


Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:51 | 1159250 55 men
55 men's picture


Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:01 | 1159296 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 LOL. I like that, Little League World Series; that's about what I think at this point; his description of the wonders and glories of "options world" is unrecognizable to someone who's been there and done that.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:38 | 1158711 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

no qe3 = higher rates = no wealth effect = no s&p 36,000 = the crash = pms spike more anyway


bernank & yelling gonna keep extending and pretending 'til the arabs or the chinese pull the rug from underneath them. they have both drunk the kool aid from the keynesian cup, and they shall not relent.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:28 | 1158955 Sokhmate
Sokhmate's picture

and that cup is full of the output of a bukkake session.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:46 | 1158755 ms1408
ms1408's picture

No QE3 means increased counter party risk and bank defaults. How do you hedge against counter party risk? Oh yeh - gold and silver.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:56 | 1158790 caconhma
caconhma's picture

NO QE3 = Higher rates => US & EU Economies collapse=>Silver & Gold to the Moon

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:40 | 1159010 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture


Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:27 | 1158945 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

Even if it corrects this summer it will $50 hit before Christmas, easy.  Noticed you were MIA as AG ran up last week.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:57 | 1159069 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

Why don't we ever hear from you when silver is up?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:55 | 1159261 55 men
55 men's picture

That's because he has The Bernank's weiner in his mouth.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:26 | 1159354 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

The USA has had debt issues going back the same amount of years. World War II, the 60's, the 80's, Social Security, Medicare, the Credit Crisis 2002, 911, Iraq, Afghanistan, 2007 credit implosion ....

Silver History

1900 - $0.80

1910 - $0.70

1920 - $1.70

1930 - $0.50

1940 - $0.42

1950 - $0.90

1960 - $1.00

1970 - $2.00

1980 - $48.00 ( Two months later below $10.00 )

1990 - $6.00

2000 - $5.00

2003 - $5.00

2006 - $8.50

2009 - $12.00

2010 - $18.00

Today = Bubbleicious

Mozilo reached out to borrowers as part of a "little experiment" to understand the reasoning behind making only minimum payments on so-called pay-option loans, a practice that boosts the total amount due, the 67-year-old CEO told investors Wednesday in New York.


"What we're finding out is that they're pretty smart," Mozilo said. "It's like voters: Individually they're sort of idiots, but collectively they seem to make the right decisions."

"CEO Makes Call on Pay-Option Loans: It's Risky", from Bloomberg News.


Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:52 | 1159482 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yes, every single thing that you can buy is in a bubble.  The dollar is rocksteady.  No bubble there.  No, never.


Mon, 04/11/2011 - 19:15 | 1159551 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Tmo, you should seriously consider hedging your 95% long silver position...  it's going to get really ugly for silver.

Being on the wrong side of bubble is never fun for the longs.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 19:22 | 1159581 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

+2 Bennie Bucks for you!  Good show. I was wondering, if you might indulge me, how much exactly does it cost to dig silver out of the ground?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:07 | 1159723 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

The only real bubble right now is GOV'T.  Once you understand that you can form your own conclusions about the eventual progression of things.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:17 | 1159763 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Don't feed the trolls.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:47 | 1159863 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

The only hedge to outrageous silver prices is tecumseh slaughtering the president every 20 years. Since the presidential slaughter is over we gotta pay for george bush the theif's presidential term just like we had to pay for ronald the i'm just acting reagan.

Until quezocotl comes back and gives his I told you this shit would happen you ignorant fools speach. I'll be owning silver. 1.70 silver in 1920 should have taught you something. That failing 48 dollar silver in 1980 should have taught you something. Now nothing is going to teach you anything besides the fact that you're not scary to silver investors.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 21:45 | 1160012 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I have been wrong exactly one time in my investing lifetime, and that was when I believed in the market, and shorted the financial sector prior to the start of monetization operations.

Since monetization began, I pulled 100% of all paper assets, and now hold only what I can beleive in.

A punk kid like you doesn't understand what is going on in the world.  You make a few bucks and think you're always right.  You think you're hedged, but you're not.  You are playing the paper game 100%, and when the fire hits, you'll just be another statistic.

Face it, you are among your SUPERIORS.  You have not made a single correct call since you have been here.  This demonstrates with perfect precision your inadequacy.  Shut up and learn from the big boys.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 02:56 | 1160734 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

I am so sick and tired of these useless douchebags. We have no need to respond and keep any dialogue going with these assclowns.

You are spot on my friend.

This is Sparta!

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 03:28 | 1160751 akak
akak's picture

I agree as well, and find it inexplicably disappointing that tmosley received four "junks" for telling off an obvious and disingenuously dishonest troll.  Those are either four newbies who do not know any better, or else MothMan is using four of his alter ego sock puppet IDs here to multiply junk his nemesis (and victor).

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 21:45 | 1160011 knowless
knowless's picture

whether or not chewing gum, the fructose in it is going up too no?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:01 | 1159701 JonNadler
JonNadler's picture
by Math Man
on Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:19


Just like shit hole houses in the middle of desert were never going to sell for less than 500 grand?

We could see $14 silver by the summer, if not lower.

It only costs 5 bucks an oz to mine it.




MAthman did you mean 41 instaed of 14?


Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:06 | 1159725 JonNadler
JonNadler's picture
This is what Methman said on 1/27 by Math Man
on Thu, 01/27/2011 - 13:37


Gold is done.  You can still buy inexpensive puts on GLD though.

March 120s are less than 20 implied vol.

Seems like some reasonable insurance for 80c.


Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:47 | 1158734 boricuadigm-shift
boricuadigm-shift's picture

The big boys are in double down naked derivative short mode... Already shorting silver with the paper silver instrument (SLV) and now they will ride SLV down by massively shorting the paper itself (SLV). 2nd Derivative Bitches!

I really thank them for this. :-)  Loading up in phiscal bullion at 37-38... Shouldn't go lowe than that.

Also... have you guys noted the spread between SLV and /SI lately... I started looking at itin January... It has gone from .60 to about $1 in 3 months.


Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:06 | 1159289 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

SLV is one curious animal. Harvey Organ said last Friday, "Friday we witnessed another gain in inventory of 1.61 million oz of paper silver. How on earth did these guys find 1.6 million oz silver so quickly????" 

JPM is the fund custodian for SLV. They are magicians. They make paper silver appear with a stroke of a keyboard.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 19:32 | 1159622 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

They just borrow it from JPM's new "vault".

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:46 | 1159857 Vendetta
Vendetta's picture


"2nd Derivative Bitches" 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:11 | 1158816 Roy Bush
Roy Bush's picture




Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:13 | 1158823 Roy Bush
Roy Bush's picture




Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:10 | 1158834 Roy Bush
Roy Bush's picture




Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:06 | 1158850 Roy Bush
Roy Bush's picture


Don't forget this past Zerohedge gem!  Look at the silver chart prices at the bottom.  This will give you silver/gold bulls strength on days like today.

27.00 for silver seems like an eternity in price nowadays!


Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:27 | 1158958 supernickel
supernickel's picture

At least we know that there will be no pullback in stocks ... thanks to our 99%-accurate Cramer Indicator.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:11 | 1158586 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

If you're wondering what I think:

Strong silver support from 39.75 down toward 39.25. BTFD.


Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:16 | 1158620 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

actually this move probably got some little MBA a higher notch on the bonus list,

very creative idea for the big boys with their short and curlies caught in silver......

put out a million bucks -- probably a fraction of what they paid contract holders to "go away" in March....

and rock the market down a buck and half for some cheaper cover....maybe even scare some metal back into circulation...

i'm think some little weenie MBA just got his Porshe for putting this out at the morning meeting.....

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:24 | 1158650 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture


Maybe throw the kitchen sink at it next and see how that works.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:21 | 1159138 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

And it kicked the living shit out of the Ag price today.  

But repeated use of this will have diminshing returns.  


Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:59 | 1159514 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

Silver was just above $41 when the news hit the street. Now it's at $40.22--if this is you're idea of silver getting "the living shit" kicked out of it, you're definitely not up for the silver game.

When silver dropped from $21 to under $9 in 2008, that was a pretty good wallop. I got quite a few hundred ounces near that bottom, altho I wasn't fast enough to buy in the $8s.

This story is a joke. Margin hike #5 is on deck. Big freakin deal.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 19:55 | 1159684 defender
defender's picture

thanks turd, good to see that smilin face on these boards again

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:09 | 1158589 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Sounds like we will be bailing out yet another bank that made a bad bet come late June.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:13 | 1158593 gianakt
gianakt's picture

Holly shit Gold just made a inverted cup and handle pattern on the hourly chart, this market is going to crash!!!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:15 | 1158611 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Holly Shit? I think I dated her in college.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:25 | 1158939 ZapBranigan
ZapBranigan's picture

Awesome BB!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:39 | 1158991 Temporis
Temporis's picture


Holly Shit... poor poor girl...

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:16 | 1158625 ms1408
ms1408's picture

I hope so. I'm looking for a BTFD oportunity.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:19 | 1158629 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture


o please. haven't you gotten it yet that charts are virtually useless in a manipulated market, except to paint....

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:43 | 1159204 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Worse, I think they are cooked up during GS board meetings, then they tell their traders to "make this pattern for me today and I'll tell you what to do with all the suckers who act on it tomorrow morning."

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 22:23 | 1160092 knukles
knukles's picture

Oh yeah?  Well just you wait until those 7 guys all tie for first place at the Olympics and they gotta make extra medals. 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:14 | 1158598 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

"A trader’s almost $1 million bet that an exchange-traded fund tracking silver will plunge 37 percent by July was today’s biggest single options trade on U.S. exchanges as futures on the metal reached a 31-year high.

Just as interesting is who is on the other side of the trade, a bet that an exchange-traded fund tracking silver will not plunge 37 percent by July.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:17 | 1158612 Cleanclog
Cleanclog's picture

That's the smart money.  As mentioned below, I think the "bet" to the downside is actually a hedge for a fund/dealer thinking silver will actually go higher, but taking a short term hedge on additional purchases here.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:27 | 1158659 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Thats what I was thinking, a dealer needing to restock physical and needing to hedge.  TTBOMK metals dealers must stay as market neutral as they can.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:15 | 1158615 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Pennies in front of a steam roller.. Also, probably fully hedged one way or another so no biggie.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:12 | 1158599 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

JPM/Blythe pulling out all stops to mash down silver. 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:17 | 1158621 Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

That's what my first thought was. Control the whole market with a mere $1million in options.

Too bad they're not doing that with gasoline prices!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:21 | 1158636 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

No...I think it was Mathman

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:29 | 1158665 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Nah MethMan is long since bankrupt, announcing his puts every month since $20.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:12 | 1158600 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

$25 by July my ass.


they're going to eat some crow on this bet.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:12 | 1158602 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

1 Million is cheep if you are short a few hundred million i suppose. There has been all sorts of talk about speculative froth and bubbles for a while now(was even on the front page of a few days back). So, i suppose this was expected from someone, somewhere.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:13 | 1158603 Cleanclog
Cleanclog's picture

$1 million bet not big. Legged hedging is my guess.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:13 | 1158604 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

more paper bullshit games...rigged markets as far as the eye can see...

aint no plausible explanation for what happened today n Gold & Silver...NONE...

fuck all bankers and the debt coupon dollar...

now off to the dealer to get some mo' real money....Suckas


Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:31 | 1158963 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

Plausible explanation?  The USD at the tipping point...

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:52 | 1159249 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Finally some common sense.  There ain't no way the Boyz are going to let silver and gold climb to the sky without trying to shake out some of that profit along the way.  If you believe in gold and silver, as do I, you are going to have to take some of that pain.

On the other hand, if you're smart enough to take delivery, they can't touch you, so stop trying to convince me price only moves in one direction in a rigged market.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:13 | 1158605 Tail Dogging The Wag
Tail Dogging The Wag's picture

BTFD, thank you!

Print this, Mr Bernanke!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:13 | 1158607 countryboy42
countryboy42's picture

It dropped because I bought some over the weekend. Sorry/you're welcome, take your pick.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:23 | 1158651 bothsidesnow
bothsidesnow's picture

Well I called some type of Bloomberg headline just after silver touched 41.99. I thought it would be silver drops on stronger dollar government debt reduction but this is just as good.

Been trading spot silver through my FX account initiated a long at 37.75 and exited at 40.43. I will wait for it to drop below 38.41.

Regardless of what all you let's get physical players say I still have time to trade FRN's for physical. Why would I buy physical right now when I can leverage 500 oz for 10% of the spot price and exit and enter in seconds if need be. To me it's the same price and I make the same profit. Someone will take my FRN's for physical at some point and I'm not worried about taxes because if the world is going to end who is going to be paying taxes.

On the world ending thing that's a bad bet it only happens once.


Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:19 | 1158919 Chappy
Chappy's picture

No, it droppped because I bought AGQ and sold a covered call around noon.  But I'm glad I'm not the only one that feels this way.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:16 | 1158609 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

XAU getting toasted and roasted.

Maybe the biggest down day of 2011.

John Embry and Eric Sprott must be scratching their heads....


Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:17 | 1158626 strannick
strannick's picture

Or deploying their capital.


Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:31 | 1158679 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

No, and if you had bothered to read or listen to them over the years you would know otherwise.

Gold up 26% YOY, silver 117%.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:36 | 1158700 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

SIL, Global X Silver Jr Miners down 5.5%... Today alone!!

Many individual names dowm near 10% e.g. AG, MVG, EXK

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:07 | 1158852 Mises
Mises's picture

Up 6% on Friday

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