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Drop In Silver Attributed To $1 Million 37% Downside Bet On SLV

Tyler Durden's picture





 

With everyone transfixed by the relentless move higher in silver, stories, myths and virtually anything is used a catalyst to explain any move lower in the precious metal. While earlier there already were two rumors that the COMEX would imminently hike gold and silver margins again (so for untrue) what is true, and what many are attributing the move in silver to, is what according to some is an outsized option bet that SLV will drop 37% by July. Bloomberg reports: "A trader’s almost $1 million bet that an exchange-traded fund tracking silver will plunge 37 percent by July was today’s biggest single options trade on U.S. exchanges as futures on the metal reached a 31-year high. The 100,000 options to buy 100 shares each of the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) at $25 by July changed hands at the ask price of about 10 cents and exceeded the open interest of 6,054 outstanding contracts before today, indicating that a buyer of a new bearish position initiated the transaction. The ETF rose to the highest intraday level since trading began five years ago, $40.33, before erasing gains. It fell 0.5 percent to $39.67 at 12:54 p.m. It hasn’t closed below $25 since November."

More:

“It’s definitely a massive downside bet on silver,” said Henry Schwartz, president of Trade Alert LLC, a New York-based provider of options-market data and analytics. “It’s so far out of the money that the buyer is probably just looking for a moderate pullback because a $3 retracement to where it was in March could double the position to $2 million.”

Silver for May delivery in New York climbed as much as 3.4 percent to $41.975 an ounce, the highest level since January 1980, when futures reached a record $50.35. It last traded at $41.33. Silver, where half of global consumption is industrial, has been rising because it benefits from a rebounding global economy as well as demand for a haven, according to UBS AG.

Of course, such a simplistic analysis certainly ignores what are likely numerous other components to a trade that is almost certainly multi-handed. After all let's not forget that it was none other than Morgan Stanley on Friday explaining why there appears to be a sizable short-gamma position in the market, which is substantially higher than just a $1 mm notional exposure, and which if anything, is a far more potent driver in the price of silver. Furthermore, if a $1mm bet is sufficient bet to push the market in either direction, then it is safe to say that there is absolutely no liquidity in the PM market whatsoever.

We are confident much more will emerge in the story of who is betting what and how much on future silver moves before June 30 comes.

Lastly, anybody out there heard of... gasp... hedging?

 


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Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:08 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Im glad this bet was taken as we can proceed to BTFD. Currently, wouldnt touch a silver long above 39, but hopefully we can see lower px to get back into.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:25 | Link to Comment Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

NO QE3 = Higher rates = Silver collapse

That is conventional wisdom. Conventional wisdom is often wrong.

Besides, I've got plenty time to wait. There's no way we're going to stop printing money. Just a matter of time.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:31 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

Just unloaded some of the puts I bought on Friday up 40%...

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:40 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL Methman, now only 400 more such trades in a row to get back what you lost buying puts ever since $20.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:41 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

Contango, bitchez!

No more backwardation = the beginning of the end for silver.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:45 | Link to Comment spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

= the beginning of the end?

 

weren't you saying a few days ago that the reasons we all give for high silver are fundamentally sound, but just that the price is overshooting itself? silver is exceedingly useful (try eating an ipad without it), exceedingly rare, and increasingly hoarded. no amount of technical analysis will stop me from buying the fucking dip. silver: on the way to the moon for fundamental reasons. 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:57 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

Oh yeah, such great fundamentals.  Only 50% of the silver we mine is used industrially and the rest is speculatively hoarded by ZH readers and ETFs.

On yeah, and the largest ETF owns a half years mine production.   Such great fundamentals.

And production costs are between $5 and $10 bucks an ounce.

Face it, the price got ahead of itself because of all the speculative buying and hoarding...  and it will soon be back below $20 where it belongs.

 

The REASONS to buy silver were correct (dollar devaluation, QE, etc), but the price was WRONG.   Just like in the dot.com boom...  the internet did change the world, but buying pets.com at $100/share was a big mistake.

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:58 | Link to Comment Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

How is this for a prediction

 

by Burnbright 
on Tue, 04/05/2011 - 11:31
#1136994

 

Just wait for the next dip, they will be calling a top. It is actually kind of funny cause they are a good indication of when to buy. 

by Dr. Porkchop 
on Tue, 04/05/2011 - 11:49
#1137119

 

If we could have their comments quantified on the level of trollishness and chart it, we could have the PM Troll Buy Indicator Index.

by Burnbright 
on Sun, 04/10/2011 - 23:55
#1156713

 

I bet we get a dip here soon at either right below 42 or 43 followed by a margin hike announcement an hour later. So more than likely by tuesday. 

I was off by the margin hike announcement but the day still isnt over yet.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:01 | Link to Comment yipcarl
yipcarl's picture

Look peeps most of you know this.  If in fact the Mass Media is telling us someone is taking a huge silver short that means to buy the F out of it.  THe reason....If the big dogs were really sellling silver, you wouldn't know they sold a single share, in fact there would be some news about them buying it.  

 

Burnbright it right on it.  Silver 10 bucks higher here we come. 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 19:47 | Link to Comment Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

I was buying SLV for some time, but have been selling into this latest run-up for a couple of months and feeling stupid as it keeps running up beyond reason.  Meanwhile DXY keeps diving...  I don't see any good options for my paper assets.  I am diversified with plenty of phys and other tangibles, and even farmland, etc.  Still, I don't like the outlook for my children in any asset class.   This is a great forum, but how do you get ahead in a decline of an empire?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 22:05 | Link to Comment yipcarl
yipcarl's picture

You think you have a viable answer, hit me up. 

 

yipcarl@aol.com 

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 01:12 | Link to Comment TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

"how do you get ahead in a decline of an empire?"...by selling guns, ammo and rope, lots of rope!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:02 | Link to Comment JoeSexPack
JoeSexPack's picture

$5/ounce production cost means those producers are a great buy.

If you're honest, for once, then a link would help your case.

If you're lying, again, talk is cheap & compulsive liars are still losers.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:13 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

Just pull up the financial statments of any silver producer...  problem is that it is hard to find one that has gone fully hedged at these levels. 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:55 | Link to Comment Temporis
Temporis's picture

So when does it stop Mathman? Silver at $40? Silver at $50? $60?

Call it... right here right now.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:17 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

He already did.  He claimed $34 was the top.

Also, it's funny how he brags about his 40% gain on his last trade, but says nothing about all of the 100% losses that preceded it.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:26 | Link to Comment GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Oh yeah me too! I totally went all in ZSL on Friday at its very lowest low of ever lower and lower lows. And, depending on which way the market moves tomorrow, I will let you know what I did today the day after. (Hint: I've already won!)

Ghod how I love the interwebs: You just cannot lose.

All kidding aside, we all knew MethMom would be back spewing his asshat rote the moment there was any sort of naturally occuring retracement. What a predictable putz.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 19:59 | Link to Comment TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

Wank-Wank, I'm a Tank!

Heard all this shite before...allow me to let everyone on ZH in on a little secret...come closer to the screen...come-on, closer...***whispering***...here's a little #1 secret about Silver and many other commodities you actually already know very well, but seem to forget...***whispering very quietly in your ear***...since the modern world has never been in this situation before, ever, why do the so-called experts claim to still know which way is up and which way is down, how trends will go this way "for sure", then that way "for sure"...ask yourself, what is all that based upon since we've never been here before...***Ultra quiet now***...so...at all those who claim to know what will happen in this environment, especially when we don't even know if any Silver mines will still be alive after a massive post QE credit crunch, or worse, a collapse, how about you tell them to SHUT THE FUCK UP!!!

The only rule that counts in this environment is dead fuckin simple, and you damn-well know its' true...when going long on PMs etc, price is dictated by fear only...the dips and peaks along the way are the Weekend Warriors trying to gleen a buck out along the way. Fear will drive a PM bubble, no different than the fear-based housing bubble fiasco. This is common dog-fuck!

So, go ahead an believe the weekend warrior try-hard market manipulators on ZH if you like...who for some reason don't seem to be getting million dollar bunuses on Wall Street, perhaps because of some obscure reason like, they haven't been discovered as yet (LOL), personally, this shit is simple; buy long, stay long, the 'Fear' is still to come! Once the dust settles (Nuclear Fall-out), buy farms.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 21:23 | Link to Comment Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

+1

I'm long silver, but that was good.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 00:05 | Link to Comment TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

Might as well stick a Parrot on my shoulder and call me John; that's how long on Silver I am...well I thought that was funny at any rate.

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 21:48 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Uh funny. We have 100 years of fed economic activity under our belt. That's 4 generations. In 4 generations if you can't learn anything you're not paying attention.

The trolls are easy to figure out.

1999 fed mint sells 5 million ounces of silver eagles.

2011 fed mint sells 40 million ounces of silver eagles.

Of course they are screaming it's going to crash.

Guess what? Religious nuts are trying to start this big wave of judgement day is may 21, 2011 or some shit. Welcome to the mushroom. The guy running the theory had an old theory that it was september 1994.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6hL6fkJ1_k

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 00:08 | Link to Comment GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Haha! 'Sif Wall St. would hire anyone who has been daily kicking them in the ballz for the last decade with Au-toed, silver-shanked boots... oh, and I know a farm is (shudder) work and all that, but man, you city types will never know just how shitty Monstrous Santa produce really is until you've tried the veggies from my family's garden.

Though, speaking of other things that Wall St. coke headz spend their days endeavouring not to 'discover', I suppose if anyone reading this really is a 'million dollah' bonus blood sucker squeezing the life out of your country you may have inadvertently given us and ours some gold for that criminally overpriced meal you ate at 'Chauve à Col Roulé'; I sincerely hope the waiters threw in the expectorate gratis, 'cuz I'm sure they charged a hero like you extra for the urine content of your coffee.

...We GUARD YOU WHILE YOU SLEEP...

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:14 | Link to Comment NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

So you claim to have the secret info that the miner's let only you know?

 

You can't be serious to think that the cost to pull the stuff out of the ground would stay that regular even with fuel prices staying the same, which anyone that actually own's their own vehicle can look around and tell you that fuel prices are up quite a bit as well.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:02 | Link to Comment Lets_Eat_Ben
Lets_Eat_Ben's picture

Hey Math Man I gotta say you have some balls and you stick to your guns. I mean for someone to stay bearish on an asset that's performed the way silver has, takes an impressive amount of self-assurance.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:17 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

Shorting the NASDAQ at 4000 would have looked like a stupid trade at first too...

It's hard to call the exact top of a parabolic bubble like silver.  But we are pretty damn close now.

Thank god for puts... limited downside and huge upside means you can just keep reloading.

Why would you buy silver here?  You have a couple of bucks of upside and more than $20 of downside...

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:29 | Link to Comment spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

the hunt blowout top, inflation adjusted is in the mid 200s. that was artificial scarcity. we keep dropping tomahawk missiles with 7kg of silver solder on libya. china and india are developing a ravenous appetite for consumer goods (mmm delicious ipad). we're about to see a huge solar rollout, in addition to silver's traditional uses (medical, mirrors, water purification and oh as an inflation hedge against the rampant debasement we're seeing on every continent). all of which (other than as bullion) is non-recoverable. peak silver is real.

 

so you keep believing there's a $2 upside, dude. i think silver: gold is going 5:1 by the end of the decade and 1:5 by the end of the century. fuck the olympics.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:43 | Link to Comment SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Silver: Rhodium of the 22nd century.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:56 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Lol @ SGR at 1:5.

I mean i know its nice to reassure yourself with random digits, but come on. Youre absolutely right, the olympics would never be the same.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:04 | Link to Comment spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

competitors now get a medal made from stuck-together federal reserve notes.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:31 | Link to Comment Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

"You have a couple of bucks of upside and more than $20 of downside"

Works for me; bought mostly in the $13 to $15 range.

Also, if you were so certain you were correct, you wouldn't be wasting your time arguing on Zero Hedge. You'd be quietly putting your life savings into ZSL.

Anyway, once silver takes out it's 1980 highs, you'll disappear just like all the other anti-PM trolls...

 

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:33 | Link to Comment Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

Yes! Why is it the trolls exhibit such altruism? "I just want to assist you all"

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:33 | Link to Comment Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

EXPECTANCY

Stop trying to be right.  Mathman may have a lower percentage chance to be right, but the average size of his wins from taking such trades is tremendous.

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:30 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

Bingo.  I can afford to keep reloading my puts until I'm right...  and when I'm right I make multiples of my initial invesment.

But I'll be right soon enough.  Silver below $20 by the summer.

Even if you're a die hard long, you should still be buying puts as protection.  SO CHEAP....

 

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:54 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

You'll keep you're perfect record.

Being right exactly 0 times in a row.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 19:18 | Link to Comment duncecap rack
duncecap rack's picture

I like calls better. Then tend to pay off more often these days.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 22:37 | Link to Comment hamstercheese
hamstercheese's picture

So meth man....you are suggesting to sell silver and buy Federal Reserve Notes..?? Sell something tangible for paper??  You think the FRN's are going up in value? Not buying it....people aren't buying silver to make money, they are doing it to preserve purchasing power...if you believe silver is going to $20/oz then food and energy prices will also be cut in half...when denominated in FRN's...not gonna happen, all this government spending has to come from something....more money printing...more until it is no longer accepted..then you enter a world of barter I guess.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:05 | Link to Comment Lets_Eat_Ben
Lets_Eat_Ben's picture

Hey Math Man I gotta say you have some balls and you stick to your guns. I mean for someone to stay bearish on an asset that's performed the way silver has, takes an impressive amount of self-assurance.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:04 | Link to Comment Lets_Eat_Ben
Lets_Eat_Ben's picture

Hey Math Man I gotta say you have some balls and you stick to your guns. I mean for someone to stay bearish on an asset that's performed the way silver has, takes an impressive amount of self-assurance.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:06 | Link to Comment Lets_Eat_Ben
Lets_Eat_Ben's picture

Hey Math Man I gotta say you have some balls and you stick to your guns. I mean for someone to stay bearish on an asset that's performed the way silver has, takes an impressive amount of self-assurance.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:17 | Link to Comment SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

I get it.  I get it.  You are totally impressed with his gun and balls.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:30 | Link to Comment Temporis
Temporis's picture

I got the same impression

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:42 | Link to Comment emsolý
emsolý's picture

How many balls could he have?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:59 | Link to Comment 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

i think the real question is how many alt troll handles "math man" has.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:58 | Link to Comment Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

May as well just change his name to Lets_Eat_Balls and shove the barrel of a gun up his butt!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:25 | Link to Comment thecoloredsky
thecoloredsky's picture

Math Man

When did pets.com sell for $100/share? Best I can tell it sold at $14/share at its high. The IPO was $11.

http://www.earnings-splits-ipo.com/stock_investing/earnings/quick_check....

Stop posting bullshit.

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:58 | Link to Comment IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 But, if he stops posting bullshit; he'll have to remain silent; he doesn't know anything but bullshit; and if he stops typing altogether, he'll get in trouble cause he told his mother he was doing his homework in the basement.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:36 | Link to Comment r101958
r101958's picture

Nice try......but no cigar.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:44 | Link to Comment Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

Yeah, your right. Your always right. All hail Math Man!!!! I don't know why you even hang around this site with all the pathetic and nonsensical drivel about silver going to the moon. I think we are all indebted to you and should sell all our PM holdings right now. Seriously though, if you don't agree with 90% of the comments why do you stay? Seems rather pigheaded to me, either that or your just a contrarian that likes to ruffle feathers. Either way good luck, if TSHTF you'll need it.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:55 | Link to Comment SRSrocco
SRSrocco's picture

Math Man has a point, unforunately it is a dull one.  Many what I label ANAL-ISTS probably agree with what MathMan stated above.  Sure it is true that CASH COSTS for many silver producers are between $5-$10 an ounce but these are the companies who have high ORE GRADES as well as large tonnage per day.

US Silver Corp had unaudited cash cost per silver ounce produced after by-product credits was $13.50 for the year ended December 31, 2010.  If you take out the by-product credits, I imagine the cash costs were probably over $15 an ounce.  Cash costs do not account for capital expenditures, drilling budgets etc and etc.

There are a good bunch of lousy SILVER ANAL-ISTS out there.  I am not going to mention their names but they also think silver is OVERVALUED.  Some have stated that silver is in a bubble and needs to correct down to $20-$25....same with Math Man.

What I would like to know....WHERE THE HELL HAVE THE IQ's GONE?  Don't these so called anal-ists realize the FED is buying $100 billion in US Treasuries a month?  Do they not realize when you go to foreign countries a good portion of retail businesses no longer take DOLLARS??? 

Silver is not in a bubble.....and it is not OVERBOUGHT.  When the US Dollar finally dies taking down the US Treasury market with it.....and price of Gold and Silver flies towards the heavens, we won't hear a PEEP out of the ANAL-IST CLOWNS who thought it was overbought.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:08 | Link to Comment MrSilverAG
MrSilverAG's picture

"The REASONS to buy silver were correct (dollar devaluation, QE, etc), but the price was WRONG.   Just like in the dot.com boom...  the internet did change the world, but buying pets.com at $100/share was a big mistake."

 

You sure sound a lot like Fed Shill Stewart Baxter - http://mrsilverag.com/2011/03/28/fed-shill-on-facebook-bashing-silver/

He says nearly the exact same words.   That is twice now you two are basically reading from the exact same script.  Shill much?

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:20 | Link to Comment Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

Ha! they are reading the same script? instead of copycat, copytroll?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:26 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

Funny thing is I made those comments weeks ago...  and many of the comments on that page were literally copy and pasted from posts I've made in the past.   I don't really mind having a copy cat. 

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

 

 

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:48 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

 

 

Thanks for clarifying that, Stewart.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 19:11 | Link to Comment Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

So your are Pro-FED, Moth Mom, as well:

 

You guys have NO IDEA what you ask for. You are enjoying life thanks to the FED. You can't even imagine how bad things will get without it. Fine, enjoy your conspiracy theories, it doesn't matter anyway. ... The FED has only helped you by managing the financial system, think how bad the crash would be if they didn't exist?

 


Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:40 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

Not my words, but they ring true.

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:25 | Link to Comment Exposer of Inte...
Exposer of Internet Shills's picture

STEWIE the shill.  A big F'n retarded loser.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:27 | Link to Comment dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

Jonny B..   Welcome back.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:59 | Link to Comment Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

I miss still Harry Wanker, now he was a serious investor...

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:14 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Meth-addled Mothman states:

Oh yeah, such great fundamentals.  Only 50% of the silver we mine is used industrially and the rest is speculatively hoarded by ZH readers and ETFs.

A gross and blatant lie.  Try more like 85-90% being used industrially, asswipe --- as any cursory investigation of silver market fundamentals would demonstrate.

You are nothing but a maniacal, malicious pro-Establishment troll, desperately defending your (pay)masters by feebly attacking that which most exposes their corruption, hypocrisy and lies, the physical metals markets.

Also, it is instructive to note that the obvious, agenda-driven, pro-Establishment, anti-PM trolls such as MothMan literally swarm any thread discussing the precious metals, but ONLY at or near the top of the thread --- a pattern I have noted with unceasingly regularity ---  clearly in order to obfuscate, misdirect and discourage the discussion of precious metals and economic/monetary collapse.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:42 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

Bullshit:

http://www.silverinstitute.org/pr07apr2011.php

Industrial silver uses were 487.4 million ounces vs supply of 1056.8 million ounces in 2010.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 03:30 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Only 50% of the silver we mine is used industrially and the rest is speculatively hoarded by ZH readers and ETFs.

Not only are you a blatant, malicious liar, but you are illiterate as well; from the same source, the following figures can clearly be found:

2010 total mine production:  736 Million ounces

2010 total fabrication demand, minus jewelry and coins:  610 Million ounces (83% of mine production)

 

MothMan, leave this forum NOW --- you have been thoroughly, completely and unequivocally discredited and revealed as the obvious paid Establishment shill and anti-precious metals troll that you are.

 

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 04:54 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

Fucking blow me!

What part of industrial applications  were 487.4 million ounces vs total supply of 1056.8 million ounces (or 46%) in 2010 did you not understand...   I'm glad you decided to include photography and silverware and ignore scrap production.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 13:15 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

MothMan, you are truly a disingenuous, dishonest, lying son of a bitch.

Let me repost your original quote:

Only 50% of the silver we mine is used industrially and the rest is speculatively hoarded by ZH readers and ETFs.

And let me emphasize just what silver you originally referred to: that fraction of the total THAT IS MINED ANNUALLY that is used industrially.  I clearly demonstrated that that figure was 83% in 2010 (and even higher in previous years), so your attempt to poormouth silver by claiming that only around 50% is used in any given year, and 50% "hoarded", is obviously just another in a long line of your anti-silver propaganda soundbites and pro-Establishment lies.

Cass Sunstein is not going to be happy with you, I think.  Better start looking for another line of work ---- you clearly suck as a hired troll. Save yourself further embarrassment, you lying, malevolent, truth-hating bastard, and leave this forum NOW.

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 23:31 | Link to Comment SilverDOG
SilverDOG's picture

So how do you "price" silver?

"Dollar devaluation, price wrong, back below $20; the reasons to buy silver were correct"

So how do you price silver?

A comic you are.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:00 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

End for SLV perhaps, has nothing to do with physical silver in Monetize Nation.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:12 | Link to Comment Exposer of Inte...
Exposer of Internet Shills's picture

"the beginning of the end for silver."

 

YOU are such an OBVIOUS SHILL  it's PATHETIC.  I see most folks here already know this so go ahead and waste your time here.  It accomplishes 2 purposes

 

1) You're not on some other forum where they are less informed

2) You're comic relief for the 99.99% of everyone here who KNOWS you're a shill

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:15 | Link to Comment Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

"No more backwardation = the beginning of the end for silver."

I will remind Methane that gold slipped into backwardation, and then back into contango in 2009--and then soared to new record high after new record high.

What a twit.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:44 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

Nothing ever goes up or down in a strait line except the Federal Reserve Corporation's balance sheet. If I had a million to throw around I'd buy a May call @ $50 right now. The FED will never stop monetizing the debt or raise interests rates ever again till they are physically abolished which is their own end. BTFD.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:31 | Link to Comment Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

Yup, agreed. Ben Bernank has chosen print to infinity (and beyond) that is the course we have before us. I can't wait to see the financiers wiped off the Earth...

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:18 | Link to Comment JonNadler
JonNadler's picture
by Math Man
on Fri, 02/25/2011 - 17:34
#997990

 

But it still remains below Monday's peak.

Face it.  Silver is over.

It ran 70% in six months, but it only costs $5 bucks to dig it out the ground.

It'll be back below $20 soon enough.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:22 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

MothMan is clearly paid by the Fed and/or the IMF for his number of lame anti-silver posts, and not for their logical content, which is habitually nil.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:24 | Link to Comment Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Agreed about continuing to print.  But does that have to happen all at once?  What good is inside information if everyone can guess at what is going to happen?  Everyone is long silver and short the dollar, and that includes retail. 

Is retail ever allowed to win?

How about the dollar rallies, and commodities fall, just long enough to upset inflationary expectations and screw retail?  With that over, the dollar resumes its downward drift.  Retail fails miserably and only the banks, who have the inside skinny win. 

Isn't the market changing course to screw the most people the most likely scenario?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:47 | Link to Comment Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

But everyone isn't long silver. There may be a lot of people long paper silver, but there certainly are not a lot of people long physical silver, because there isn't enough physical to supply a mass long position.

A pitiful million bucks is "a massive downside bet"? What doofus said that? A million dollar short on paper silver is some guy with BPH trying to piss in the ocean.

Methane is welcome to his little options scraps. Those of us who recognized the value in silver at $4.20 are up 960% on the trade.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:31 | Link to Comment Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

Math Man = Troll = Living in Mom's basement = masturbates to Little League World Series

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:46 | Link to Comment Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

+1

ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!!!!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:52 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

"Trader".. $1Mil bet.. wild out of the money... hmmm..  Why am I immediately thinking "walking around money" for a government troll to shake the silver tree?

That's crazy thinking, isn't it?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:34 | Link to Comment Creed
Creed's picture

altho I loathe your user name...:)...that's exactly what I was thinking

I think more upside then POP goes the air from the balloon until QEIII is announced Aug/Sept

 

 

"Trader".. $1Mil bet.. wild out of the money... hmmm..  Why am I immediately thinking "walking around money" for a government troll to shake the silver tree?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 21:29 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

Thank you. This pseudonym does produce gratifying reactions of disgust on occasion.

Actually, it's a word from an ancient Chinese dialect meaning “log and hammock”.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:13 | Link to Comment PenchantForHoarding
PenchantForHoarding's picture

LOL!  So exhausting reading this nonsense.  To begin with, top calling PM's is a pretty counterproductive sell on a site like this... like me posting "I hate Jesus!  I hate guns!" on an NRA blog.  I can appreciate an alternate perspective, but trolling is trolling.  It's like trying to argue with a surly senior citizen that the grass is, indeed, green. 

I guess I'll go open up my safe and drag all that worthless junk metal down to the coin store...

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:52 | Link to Comment 55 men
55 men's picture

YES!!!!!!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:51 | Link to Comment 55 men
55 men's picture

YES!!!!!!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:01 | Link to Comment IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 LOL. I like that, Little League World Series; that's about what I think at this point; his description of the wonders and glories of "options world" is unrecognizable to someone who's been there and done that.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:38 | Link to Comment spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

no qe3 = higher rates = no wealth effect = no s&p 36,000 = the crash = pms spike more anyway

 

bernank & yelling gonna keep extending and pretending 'til the arabs or the chinese pull the rug from underneath them. they have both drunk the kool aid from the keynesian cup, and they shall not relent.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:28 | Link to Comment Sokhmate
Sokhmate's picture

and that cup is full of the output of a bukkake session.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:46 | Link to Comment ms1408
ms1408's picture

No QE3 means increased counter party risk and bank defaults. How do you hedge against counter party risk? Oh yeh - gold and silver.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:56 | Link to Comment caconhma
caconhma's picture

NO QE3 = Higher rates => US & EU Economies collapse=>Silver & Gold to the Moon

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:40 | Link to Comment spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

+9001

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:27 | Link to Comment Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

Even if it corrects this summer it will $50 hit before Christmas, easy.  Noticed you were MIA as AG ran up last week.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:57 | Link to Comment Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

Why don't we ever hear from you when silver is up?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:55 | Link to Comment 55 men
55 men's picture

That's because he has The Bernank's weiner in his mouth.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:26 | Link to Comment Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

The USA has had debt issues going back the same amount of years. World War II, the 60's, the 80's, Social Security, Medicare, the Credit Crisis 2002, 911, Iraq, Afghanistan, 2007 credit implosion ....

Silver History

1900 - $0.80

1910 - $0.70

1920 - $1.70

1930 - $0.50

1940 - $0.42

1950 - $0.90

1960 - $1.00

1970 - $2.00

1980 - $48.00 ( Two months later below $10.00 )

1990 - $6.00

2000 - $5.00

2003 - $5.00

2006 - $8.50

2009 - $12.00

2010 - $18.00

Today = Bubbleicious

Mozilo reached out to borrowers as part of a "little experiment" to understand the reasoning behind making only minimum payments on so-called pay-option loans, a practice that boosts the total amount due, the 67-year-old CEO told investors Wednesday in New York.

 

"What we're finding out is that they're pretty smart," Mozilo said. "It's like voters: Individually they're sort of idiots, but collectively they seem to make the right decisions."

"CEO Makes Call on Pay-Option Loans: It's Risky", from Bloomberg News.

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:52 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yes, every single thing that you can buy is in a bubble.  The dollar is rocksteady.  No bubble there.  No, never.

SO STUPID.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 19:15 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

Tmo, you should seriously consider hedging your 95% long silver position...  it's going to get really ugly for silver.

Being on the wrong side of bubble is never fun for the longs.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 19:22 | Link to Comment Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

+2 Bennie Bucks for you!  Good show. I was wondering, if you might indulge me, how much exactly does it cost to dig silver out of the ground?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:07 | Link to Comment Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

The only real bubble right now is GOV'T.  Once you understand that you can form your own conclusions about the eventual progression of things.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:17 | Link to Comment Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Don't feed the trolls.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:47 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

The only hedge to outrageous silver prices is tecumseh slaughtering the president every 20 years. Since the presidential slaughter is over we gotta pay for george bush the theif's presidential term just like we had to pay for ronald the i'm just acting reagan.

Until quezocotl comes back and gives his I told you this shit would happen you ignorant fools speach. I'll be owning silver. 1.70 silver in 1920 should have taught you something. That failing 48 dollar silver in 1980 should have taught you something. Now nothing is going to teach you anything besides the fact that you're not scary to silver investors.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 21:45 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

I have been wrong exactly one time in my investing lifetime, and that was when I believed in the market, and shorted the financial sector prior to the start of monetization operations.

Since monetization began, I pulled 100% of all paper assets, and now hold only what I can beleive in.

A punk kid like you doesn't understand what is going on in the world.  You make a few bucks and think you're always right.  You think you're hedged, but you're not.  You are playing the paper game 100%, and when the fire hits, you'll just be another statistic.

Face it, you are among your SUPERIORS.  You have not made a single correct call since you have been here.  This demonstrates with perfect precision your inadequacy.  Shut up and learn from the big boys.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 02:56 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

I am so sick and tired of these useless douchebags. We have no need to respond and keep any dialogue going with these assclowns.

You are spot on my friend.

This is Sparta!

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 03:28 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

I agree as well, and find it inexplicably disappointing that tmosley received four "junks" for telling off an obvious and disingenuously dishonest troll.  Those are either four newbies who do not know any better, or else MothMan is using four of his alter ego sock puppet IDs here to multiply junk his nemesis (and victor).

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 21:45 | Link to Comment knowless
knowless's picture

whether or not chewing gum, the fructose in it is going up too no?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:01 | Link to Comment JonNadler
JonNadler's picture
by Math Man
on Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:19
#926995

 

Just like shit hole houses in the middle of desert were never going to sell for less than 500 grand?

We could see $14 silver by the summer, if not lower.

It only costs 5 bucks an oz to mine it.

 

 

 

MAthman did you mean 41 instaed of 14?

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:06 | Link to Comment JonNadler
JonNadler's picture
This is what Methman said on 1/27 by Math Man
on Thu, 01/27/2011 - 13:37
#909715

 

Gold is done.  You can still buy inexpensive puts on GLD though.

March 120s are less than 20 implied vol.

Seems like some reasonable insurance for 80c.

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:47 | Link to Comment boricuadigm-shift
boricuadigm-shift's picture

The big boys are in double down naked derivative short mode... Already shorting silver with the paper silver instrument (SLV) and now they will ride SLV down by massively shorting the paper itself (SLV). 2nd Derivative Bitches!

I really thank them for this. :-)  Loading up in phiscal bullion at 37-38... Shouldn't go lowe than that.

Also... have you guys noted the spread between SLV and /SI lately... I started looking at itin January... It has gone from .60 to about $1 in 3 months.

Boricuadigm-shift

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:06 | Link to Comment Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

SLV is one curious animal. Harvey Organ said last Friday, "Friday we witnessed another gain in inventory of 1.61 million oz of paper silver. How on earth did these guys find 1.6 million oz silver so quickly????" 

JPM is the fund custodian for SLV. They are magicians. They make paper silver appear with a stroke of a keyboard.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 19:32 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

They just borrow it from JPM's new "vault".

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:46 | Link to Comment Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

+47 

"2nd Derivative Bitches" 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:11 | Link to Comment Roy Bush
Roy Bush's picture

 

 

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:13 | Link to Comment Roy Bush
Roy Bush's picture

 

 

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:10 | Link to Comment Roy Bush
Roy Bush's picture

 

 

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:06 | Link to Comment Roy Bush
Roy Bush's picture

 

Don't forget this past Zerohedge gem!  Look at the silver chart prices at the bottom.  This will give you silver/gold bulls strength on days like today.  

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/meet-man-behind-liquidating-hedge-fund-blew-gold-market

27.00 for silver seems like an eternity in price nowadays!

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:27 | Link to Comment supernickel
supernickel's picture

At least we know that there will be no pullback in stocks ... thanks to our 99%-accurate Cramer Indicator.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42538365

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:11 | Link to Comment Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

If you're wondering what I think:

http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/interesting-day.html

Strong silver support from 39.75 down toward 39.25. BTFD.

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:16 | Link to Comment unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

actually this move probably got some little MBA a higher notch on the bonus list,

very creative idea for the big boys with their short and curlies caught in silver......

put out a million bucks -- probably a fraction of what they paid contract holders to "go away" in March....

and rock the market down a buck and half for some cheaper cover....maybe even scare some metal back into circulation...

i'm think some little weenie MBA just got his Porshe for putting this out at the morning meeting.....

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:24 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

+1

Maybe throw the kitchen sink at it next and see how that works.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:21 | Link to Comment SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

And it kicked the living shit out of the Ag price today.  

But repeated use of this will have diminshing returns.  

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:59 | Link to Comment Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

Silver was just above $41 when the news hit the street. Now it's at $40.22--if this is you're idea of silver getting "the living shit" kicked out of it, you're definitely not up for the silver game.

When silver dropped from $21 to under $9 in 2008, that was a pretty good wallop. I got quite a few hundred ounces near that bottom, altho I wasn't fast enough to buy in the $8s.

This story is a joke. Margin hike #5 is on deck. Big freakin deal.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 19:55 | Link to Comment defender
defender's picture

thanks turd, good to see that smilin face on these boards again

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:09 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Sounds like we will be bailing out yet another bank that made a bad bet come late June.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:13 | Link to Comment gianakt
gianakt's picture

Holly shit Gold just made a inverted cup and handle pattern on the hourly chart, this market is going to crash!!!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:15 | Link to Comment Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Holly Shit? I think I dated her in college.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:25 | Link to Comment ZapBranigan
ZapBranigan's picture

Awesome BB!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:39 | Link to Comment Temporis
Temporis's picture

+1

Holly Shit... poor poor girl...

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:16 | Link to Comment ms1408
ms1408's picture

I hope so. I'm looking for a BTFD oportunity.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:19 | Link to Comment unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

o please. haven't you gotten it yet that charts are virtually useless in a manipulated market, except to paint....

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:43 | Link to Comment Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Worse, I think they are cooked up during GS board meetings, then they tell their traders to "make this pattern for me today and I'll tell you what to do with all the suckers who act on it tomorrow morning."

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 22:23 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Oh yeah?  Well just you wait until those 7 guys all tie for first place at the Olympics and they gotta make extra medals. 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:14 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

"A trader’s almost $1 million bet that an exchange-traded fund tracking silver will plunge 37 percent by July was today’s biggest single options trade on U.S. exchanges as futures on the metal reached a 31-year high.

Just as interesting is who is on the other side of the trade, a bet that an exchange-traded fund tracking silver will not plunge 37 percent by July.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:17 | Link to Comment Cleanclog
Cleanclog's picture

That's the smart money.  As mentioned below, I think the "bet" to the downside is actually a hedge for a fund/dealer thinking silver will actually go higher, but taking a short term hedge on additional purchases here.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:27 | Link to Comment LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Thats what I was thinking, a dealer needing to restock physical and needing to hedge.  TTBOMK metals dealers must stay as market neutral as they can.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:15 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Pennies in front of a steam roller.. Also, probably fully hedged one way or another so no biggie.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:12 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

JPM/Blythe pulling out all stops to mash down silver. 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:17 | Link to Comment Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

That's what my first thought was. Control the whole market with a mere $1million in options.

Too bad they're not doing that with gasoline prices!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:21 | Link to Comment pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

No...I think it was Mathman

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:29 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Nah MethMan is long since bankrupt, announcing his puts every month since $20.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:12 | Link to Comment Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

$25 by July my ass.

 

they're going to eat some crow on this bet.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:12 | Link to Comment scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

1 Million is cheep if you are short a few hundred million i suppose. There has been all sorts of talk about speculative froth and bubbles for a while now(was even on the front page of FT.com a few days back). So, i suppose this was expected from someone, somewhere.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:13 | Link to Comment Cleanclog
Cleanclog's picture

$1 million bet not big. Legged hedging is my guess.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:13 | Link to Comment Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

more paper bullshit games...rigged markets as far as the eye can see...

aint no plausible explanation for what happened today n Gold & Silver...NONE...

fuck all bankers and the debt coupon dollar...

now off to the dealer to get some mo' real money....Suckas

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:31 | Link to Comment Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

Plausible explanation?  The USD at the tipping point...

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:52 | Link to Comment Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Finally some common sense.  There ain't no way the Boyz are going to let silver and gold climb to the sky without trying to shake out some of that profit along the way.  If you believe in gold and silver, as do I, you are going to have to take some of that pain.

On the other hand, if you're smart enough to take delivery, they can't touch you, so stop trying to convince me price only moves in one direction in a rigged market.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:13 | Link to Comment Tail Dogging The Wag
Tail Dogging The Wag's picture

BTFD, thank you!

Print this, Mr Bernanke!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:13 | Link to Comment countryboy42
countryboy42's picture

It dropped because I bought some over the weekend. Sorry/you're welcome, take your pick.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:23 | Link to Comment bothsidesnow
bothsidesnow's picture

Well I called some type of Bloomberg headline just after silver touched 41.99. I thought it would be silver drops on stronger dollar government debt reduction but this is just as good.

Been trading spot silver through my FX account initiated a long at 37.75 and exited at 40.43. I will wait for it to drop below 38.41.

Regardless of what all you let's get physical players say I still have time to trade FRN's for physical. Why would I buy physical right now when I can leverage 500 oz for 10% of the spot price and exit and enter in seconds if need be. To me it's the same price and I make the same profit. Someone will take my FRN's for physical at some point and I'm not worried about taxes because if the world is going to end who is going to be paying taxes.

On the world ending thing that's a bad bet it only happens once.

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:19 | Link to Comment Chappy
Chappy's picture

No, it droppped because I bought AGQ and sold a covered call around noon.  But I'm glad I'm not the only one that feels this way.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:16 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

XAU getting toasted and roasted.

Maybe the biggest down day of 2011.

John Embry and Eric Sprott must be scratching their heads....

"WTF???"

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:17 | Link to Comment strannick
strannick's picture

Or deploying their capital.

"BTFD!"

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:31 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

No, and if you had bothered to read or listen to them over the years you would know otherwise.

Gold up 26% YOY, silver 117%.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:36 | Link to Comment long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

SIL, Global X Silver Jr Miners down 5.5%... Today alone!!

Many individual names dowm near 10% e.g. AG, MVG, EXK

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:07 | Link to Comment Mises
Mises's picture

Up 6% on Friday

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!