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Drop In Silver Attributed To $1 Million 37% Downside Bet On SLV

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With everyone transfixed by the relentless move higher in silver, stories, myths and virtually anything is used a catalyst to explain any move lower in the precious metal. While earlier there already were two rumors that the COMEX would imminently hike gold and silver margins again (so for untrue) what is true, and what many are attributing the move in silver to, is what according to some is an outsized option bet that SLV will drop 37% by July. Bloomberg reports: "A trader’s almost $1 million bet that an exchange-traded fund tracking silver will plunge 37 percent by July was today’s biggest single options trade on U.S. exchanges as futures on the metal reached a 31-year high. The 100,000 options to buy 100 shares each of the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) at $25 by July changed hands at the ask price of about 10 cents and exceeded the open interest of 6,054 outstanding contracts before today, indicating that a buyer of a new bearish position initiated the transaction. The ETF rose to the highest intraday level since trading began five years ago, $40.33, before erasing gains. It fell 0.5 percent to $39.67 at 12:54 p.m. It hasn’t closed below $25 since November."

More:

“It’s definitely a massive downside bet on silver,” said Henry Schwartz, president of Trade Alert LLC, a New York-based provider of options-market data and analytics. “It’s so far out of the money that the buyer is probably just looking for a moderate pullback because a $3 retracement to where it was in March could double the position to $2 million.”

Silver for May delivery in New York climbed as much as 3.4 percent to $41.975 an ounce, the highest level since January 1980, when futures reached a record $50.35. It last traded at $41.33. Silver, where half of global consumption is industrial, has been rising because it benefits from a rebounding global economy as well as demand for a haven, according to UBS AG.

Of course, such a simplistic analysis certainly ignores what are likely numerous other components to a trade that is almost certainly multi-handed. After all let's not forget that it was none other than Morgan Stanley on Friday explaining why there appears to be a sizable short-gamma position in the market, which is substantially higher than just a $1 mm notional exposure, and which if anything, is a far more potent driver in the price of silver. Furthermore, if a $1mm bet is sufficient bet to push the market in either direction, then it is safe to say that there is absolutely no liquidity in the PM market whatsoever.

We are confident much more will emerge in the story of who is betting what and how much on future silver moves before June 30 comes.

Lastly, anybody out there heard of... gasp... hedging?

 

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Mon, 04/11/2011 - 19:14 | 1159554 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

Robos just pissed that his guru told him to sell at 1200 and go short.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:52 | 1158775 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

Why would Embry and Sprott be scratching their head? Because they can't find any more physical to buy?

If you are implying it is because of the drop today, come up with better troll material. Silver is where it was all of 1 business day ago.

Fucktard.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:13 | 1158885 duo
duo's picture

go to Optionpain.com and look at SIL and GDXJ's max pain point.  That's where they will be some time this week.  It happens every month.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:00 | 1159284 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

OpEx.

Thank you, some common sense.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:35 | 1158985 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

Gold is up $30 since April, and that's "toasted"?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:35 | 1158987 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

Gold is up $30 since April 1, and that's "toasted"?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:17 | 1158613 strannick
strannick's picture

Maybe someone bet on SLV plummeting cause they got a look inside SLV's empty vaults.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:52 | 1158779 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

Dude, good fucking point. +1

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:59 | 1158807 boricuadigm-shift
boricuadigm-shift's picture

Exactly.... SLV going down the toilet.  Look at the spread in the last several months.  It has widened, almost doubled (80%).

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:17 | 1158614 GS is short Gold
GS is short Gold's picture

drop attributed to a $1m bet? LOL!!! how about it is attributed to the fact that SLV was almost vertical for the last few months?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:17 | 1158628 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Silver still $40, not much of a breathtaking drop to me.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:22 | 1158643 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Sheep, First Majestic plunged some 9%.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:25 | 1158658 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well lookin at Kitco, didnt even budge spot price at all. Guess no ones HFT'ing physical.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:04 | 1159301 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

I wholeheartedly agree with GS

Vertical rise:

Many players crowded on one side of the trade with small stops that would have been shaken out in normal price action +

Many players on the other side with a high pain threshold +

One side of the trade crowded with retail who trade with too large positons+

The other side crowded with pros, the Big Boyz

=

Potential stamped when Big Boyz act like boys.  It doesn't matter what silver does after that, the Boyz got theirs.

Psst: This is not an auction market, that's for after the Boyz have their way.  It's a game.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:17 | 1158618 ivars
ivars's picture

Silver is correcting as predicted. TODAY it begins.

Already 5% drop in one day from level 41,98.

Predicted here on March 13th

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/download/file.php?id=2673

Explained here:

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&sta...

My lowest crash point was 42 USD. It almost got there.

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:50 | 1158768 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

SLV may indeed go to $25, or nothing. Since nothing much backs up SLV paper. Has nothing to do with physical at all.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:57 | 1158806 ivars
ivars's picture

25 is a good place to buy, this time forever. When gold standard will be introduced, silver price will be around 100-150. In 2013-2014.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:16 | 1158623 Onlygold1
Onlygold1's picture

same ol, same ole, bash it first the come up with "plausible" explanation BS-

 

i'll take $25 in july and and roll it n 2 another few mil---

 

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:40 | 1158722 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

$25 silver will cause the entire physical supply still in existance to evaporate faster than naptha on a Phoenix sidewalk.  I did my duty today and grabbed more physical on the dip.  It is amusing to see how desperate Blythe and her fucking monkeys are getting. 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:14 | 1158889 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

+1 25 Silver and I wont have an FRN left. 25 Silver and I will sell my house to buy more. 25 Silver and I become the mother of all plungers.

 

Res publica mortuus est, vivat imperium

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:19 | 1158631 Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

Options to buy?  Aren't these puts?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:34 | 1158676 Johnny Dangereaux
Johnny Dangereaux's picture

This story makes no sense...

I will buy all the July $25 options to buy Silver for a dime someone will sell me! Christ they are 15 bux in the money right off the bat...who writes this shit?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:50 | 1158765 unky
unky's picture

same thing i thought...  maybe he meant put options ? that would make sense

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:39 | 1158708 Hollow_Point
Hollow_Point's picture

They are Puts, options to sell. Someone betting the price will be coming down. Doesn't have to get there to make some money either.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:17 | 1158632 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

so how come if someone was buying 1000000$ of calls for lets say 60...that doesnt  cause a rise of 2 dollars from the lows as a 1000000$ put drops it 2 bux from its highs??

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:22 | 1158644 Onlygold1
Onlygold1's picture

no ziggy that would make sense, we can't have that- N-E waiz, nothing for a stepper-

 

bring it on!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:21 | 1158634 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

A nice dip today. Bought it a little early but..

Be right and sit tight

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:21 | 1158637 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Funny how on these panic, forced liquidation days, retail names like ANF, JCP, BBY are all up over 2%.

Totally unfazed from the maniacal liquidation in the "hard asset" names.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:22 | 1158648 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

PANIC! FORCED LIQUIDATION! AHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Oh wait, silver is barely under $40. Another hysterical false alarm from Robo.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 19:13 | 1159557 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

Indeed. Always posting stuff after the fact as if he had a clue beforehand.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:52 | 1158774 QE4EVER
QE4EVER's picture

I could care less, but tough to call down 1-2% in hard assets "maniacal"...

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:21 | 1158641 detersbb
detersbb's picture

Why are puts on the SLV setting the spot price for Silver?  SLV is not silver but a share/certificate that can only be redeemed when a holder holds something like 50k ounces.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:53 | 1158788 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Because SLV and GLD are how the US gov't ponzi manipulates public perception on inflation.  They need to keep the public believing we have a "strong" US dollar approach, hence SLV and GLD are the mechanisms.

Wanna know who bought?

Isn't that a facetious question?

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:43 | 1159021 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Ya. Like a bet that will supposedly be paid behind 256 bit encryption in the middle of the night means a damn.

I want this option paid in cash in front of a post office.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 19:19 | 1159574 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

SLV shares can only be redeemed in "baskets" of 100,000 shares, and then only through an "authorized participant" (read: primary dealer bank).

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:20 | 1158642 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

Looks more like a hedge combined with a massive BTFD opp provided by the whole Goldman noise-- looks like the fed may even start buying and wanted a better entry.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:23 | 1158647 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Lady Blythe's last sigh before...?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:24 | 1158649 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

If we see any more of these bets, then the player is obviously

 

Drum Roll, please

 

Da Morgue

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:25 | 1158652 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

That dudes gonna get raped. But with every state and government getting tax checks 6 to 15 percent below projections. Someone has to buy time till July.

Good job people. With everyone firmly putting the economy in the fucking toilet. We can sit back and watch them lie about earnings reports and know that they won't ever stop being full of shit.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:24 | 1158654 oddjob
oddjob's picture

$1 million,major yawn on that number...I have 20K in various ZSL puts and I am small potatoes.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:29 | 1158666 tmosley
tmosley's picture

lol, so you're telling me some yahoo with $10,000 can turn the silver market by almost $2 in a day?

Hahaha, BTFD.

Shit, if you really could do that, I'd be doing it every month before my regular monthly purchase.  Buy some asinine option like $1 silver in three months for 1/100th of a cent each, knock the market down, and make my monthly buy.  The few bucks you spent on knocking down the market makes you 10X as much in terms of reduced spot price.

I'm going to see what tomorrow looks like, then I'm going to BTFD on Wednesday if it doesn't go up before then.  Just because of the sheer stupidity of it all.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:32 | 1158674 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Total bunch of nonsense, I'll BTFD on this takedown attempt all day long.

'$25 by July' yea right.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:19 | 1159353 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Unless you have one hell of a PB, you can't use much (retail = 0) leverage on options purchases. So it wasn't just $10,000 moving the market, and besides the actual option bet, it's hard to make a statement saying spot silver wasn't short-term overbought.

Yes, fundamentals, yes QE, yes worthless $; i get and understand the points. But short corrections are always healthy in any bull market, so lets not get carried away here.

Im not adding to my silver (yes, "fiat" silver) until at least 37-38 to counter today's ORD.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 19:00 | 1159507 tmosley
tmosley's picture

That's all fine.  I understand that nothing moves in a straight line.  I'm just exasperated by the grasping explanations for every little move.  

I'm not saying that this was caused by some moron with ten thousand or a million bucks taking an odd bet.  I'm saying that that is asinine.  That if such a thing could move markets, it WOULD move markets, before every big player added or sold.  

This is nothing more than a correction, and maybe a few naked shorts added for good measure.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 19:44 | 1159646 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

How come nobody shows up here confessing about how WRONG they were about this market?  All we get is folks reposting their old comments which are within some X standard deviations on some flaky curve.   It's all BS.   Just buy silver and be quiet about it.   And I don't mean paper silver either.   If you can't weigh it, you ain't got it.  If you're only making paper "profits" you are just treading water.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 22:30 | 1160132 knukles
knukles's picture

OK.  I confess.  Now I feel better. 
Thanks for the opportunity.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:30 | 1158667 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Definitely SLV focussed.  Look at the 40, 39.50, and 39 stops being taken out in systematic fashion.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:38 | 1158706 bothsidesnow
bothsidesnow's picture

On the upside the print was 41.99 so as not trigger anything at 42.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:28 | 1158671 bothsidesnow
bothsidesnow's picture


Well I called some type of Bloomberg headline just after silver touched 41.99. I thought it would be silver drops on stronger dollar government debt reduction but this is just as good.

Been trading spot silver through my FX account initiated a long at 37.75 and exited at 40.43. I will wait for it to drop below 38.41.

Regardless of what all you let's get physical players say I still have time to trade FRN's for physical. Why would I buy physical right now when I can leverage 500 oz for 10% of the spot price and exit and enter in seconds if need be. To me it's the same price and I make the same profit. Someone will take my FRN's for physical at some point and I'm not worried about taxes because if the world is going to end who is going to be paying taxes.

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:32 | 1158673 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

Silver miners gertting out the woodshed. many juniors down 8-10% Yowzzzah

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:31 | 1158686 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

All because some guy placed a little puts bet? BS, manipulation cover story, someone wants it down BAD!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:43 | 1158730 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Bernanke, Geithner, and Shapiro's President's Working Group on Financial Markets doing Asia a favor; 'You keep buying our debt, we will keep slamming the price down.'  They are merely playing the range, while they can.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:32 | 1158675 Hollow_Point
Hollow_Point's picture

What about the larger Put at 33 that someone paid almost 8 million for?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:32 | 1158678 mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

Thanks for posting this Tyler.

I think this is desperate propaganda, but the thought of being able to buy more silver at $25 makes me so happy, even if it's just a daydream.

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:32 | 1158682 John Wilmot
John Wilmot's picture

...

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:36 | 1158693 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

If you REALLY knew it would be $25 by July, someone would have been FAR better off selling the hell out of calls. In my book anyway. Buying puts now for $25 in July only makes sense to me if you already own a whole lot of SLV paper now, as a major hedge. 

But what do I know, Im simply a racist redneck I'm told.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:50 | 1158772 ATG
ATG's picture

Jul 25 SLV put premium volatility=53.29% buy with limited risk

Jul 40 SLV call premium volatility=32.07% sell with unlimited risk

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:09 | 1158817 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

dupe :-(

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:03 | 1158826 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

Or, domestic terrorist now days.......

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:34 | 1158688 Muir
Muir's picture

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-causes-selloff-commodities-clos...

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All news, everywhere, of whatever type, in whatever solar system in whichever inter-dimensional Universe you reside in, is excellent news for silver and you should immediately add to your long position.

-

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:33 | 1158691 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

Probably levered 10x SPX over.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:35 | 1158695 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

fwiw: i keep daily track of slv on the hourly chart for nyse hours only 8:30 to 3 cst.

after 2 consecutive red bars the probablity of an up green bar in the 3rd hour is 68%. if slv drops for 3 straight red bars probability of a green bar in the 4th hour is 73%. not perfect in that i count the 8:30 to 9 slot as an hour. but it helps pick a spot for a quick trade on slv to pick up a few bucks while watching the physical in the safe.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:38 | 1158703 sharkbait
sharkbait's picture

so many possible motives for this kind of trade.  Might have been the cheapest gamma on the curve.  Maybe hedging some length elsewhere.  who knows.  Interesting no matter what.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:37 | 1158709 ml8ml8
ml8ml8's picture

That sounds like someone betting on a quick pullback into the mid 30's.  I know how wildly enamored of gold and silver most folks on this website tend to be.  But anyone getting long PM at current prices might be wise to consider that perhaps inflationary sentiment is peaking -- even it only in the short to medium term. 

If the Fed actually ends it's bond buying campaign as promised and signals a long slow turn in monetary policy (even if later recanted), interest rates could--as PIMCO seems to be heaviliy wagering -- creep up over the next several months or even pop in the short term.  That would of course kick housing squarely in the nuts and otherwise have the tendency to slow the economy.  It would also cause the dollar to strenghten and cause commodities, including PM, to turn weaken.  David Rosenberg has been preaching this gospel for months now. 

The main weakness I see in this scenario is if the US$ has truly lost it's status as currency of last resort.  That point can be argued till we're all blue in the face, but a true test will be what happens in the next strong equity market downturn.  For all of its weaknesses, it remains to be seen whether Mr. Market thinks the US$ is a better bet than alternative currencies or PM when crunch time arrives.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:43 | 1158738 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

If interest rates go up qucikly or slowly, the US goverment goes bust.  It has to be ZIRP and QE forever.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:45 | 1158748 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Exactly, the maniacal monetizers can only keep the pedal mashed to the floor from here on out. $25 silver? Only in Methman and RainbowTraders wild dreams.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:38 | 1158713 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Yesterday I called for a pullback and it hit.  Technicals still intact.

http://lhmarketwatch.blogspot.com/

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:38 | 1158715 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

1 millon?  Isn't that the new 1 thousand?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:41 | 1158717 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

Silver @ 25?! Oh please oh PLEASE!! 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:49 | 1158724 mogul rider
mogul rider's picture

Sniff Sniff

 

gawd I luv that smell of roasted fish who never bought silver before smell in the afternoon.

 

Can't wait for tomorrow. Christ every dick who was a silver genius just crapped his pants.

 

OK Charlie!!!!

 

Start backing up the train for a later in the week buy pigfest as the silver geniuses runf or the door

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:41 | 1158725 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

i love silver

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:41 | 1158728 Verstehen
Verstehen's picture

Goldman says Gold will move to 1600+ by the end of the year. Why should silver move opposite?

Could Japan sell gold? They have 700+ tons.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:43 | 1158735 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

No I dont think 1 guys bet of $1 million in silver puts will cause the Chinese to dump their gold. Seems like the Chinese have a bigger plan than that.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:03 | 1158827 Verstehen
Verstehen's picture

Japan is not China. China will buy thats clear. I mean could the Japanese sell gold instead of selling bonds? Selling bonds is unthinkable in the current climate. But selling gold could cause a currency crash or will they print it all over? I think they will print.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:43 | 1158737 mogul rider
mogul rider's picture

No silly rabbit TRIX are for kids

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:43 | 1158729 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Silver right now is at $40.20, gee PLUNGED all the way back down to where it was....last Friday morning? WOWZA what a big 'CRASH'!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:49 | 1159039 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

If you look at a 6 month chart, today's "crash" isn't even a blip.  It'll be an interesting week.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:43 | 1158739 ATG
ATG's picture

More interested in what Trillionaires do:

Rich Cash

Sudden amber alert double in geomagnetic strength may accompany earthquakes, weather and market buying op:
Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:44 | 1158743 Fredd00
Fredd00's picture

Except overly leveraged kamikatze such a trick has no impact at all. BTFD and send a greetings card to Blythe (nice try bitch!)

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:45 | 1158747 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

CFTC can always change the margin rules.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:45 | 1158749 Phillips Capital
Phillips Capital's picture

I think a beautifully elegant arbitrage idea would be to procure myself a gigantic position in physical silver, while simultaneously putting on an equally sized short on the SLV ETF. This might be what is happening. That, and GS's selloff. Regardless, silver is still in a channel and everyone should still be looking to buy it around the lower $39's when it hits the bottom of the channel.  

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 21:56 | 1160031 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I have proposed this several times in the past, but I couldn't figure out how to make it really work for regular people.  You need to take delivery of the silver, and no broker in his right mind would let you do that with your collateral.  At best, you could store it third party, but even then, you will likely get scammed.

Too fucking risky for me.  I'd rather just go all in long with no leverage, and ride the tornado like a champ with the knowledge that NO amount of shaking or fraud can remove the silver from my personal vault.  If it goes to zero, who the fuck cares, I will just buy as much as I can find for "free".  I will sell some every now and then for my own consumption, but that is pretty rare, and is usually done in such a way that enables me to buy more later (like getting chickens, reducing my grocery bill, or buying solar panels, reducing my electric bill, etc).

These trolls can blather on about their 40% in one day gains, while forgetting their repeated 100% losses in the options market as much as they want.  I don't care.  I have, and will continue to come out on top.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:47 | 1158751 slvrizgold
slvrizgold's picture

Yeah SLV might drop a lot more than 37% from here.   And silver will be trading for $60/oz.   When it is exposed as a Trojan Horse scam.

DECOUPLING BITCHES! 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:52 | 1158776 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea, what does SLV and physical silver have in common? Hardly anything, may as well be linking Robos darling BBY stock and physical silver.

Decoupling, bitchez.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:08 | 1159728 sleestak
sleestak's picture

YES! Long physical, short the ETF.  Why not? What is the downside? NOTHING. HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! NOTHING!!!!  And you could really kill it if it's discovered that there's nothing to back it up.  Given Harvey Organ's reportage, there is something deeply suspicious at both SLV and GLD - magically moving tonnes and tonnes of metal when nobody else can find bulk without major effort.

Anyway, I repeat: What is the downside in that trade? 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:45 | 1158752 Badabing
Badabing's picture
Drop In Silver Attributed To $1 Million 37% Downside Bet On SLV

I take that bet.

 

When an approved participant cashes in on a basket he sell SLV and takes delivery on physical.

It’s the only place in the market you take delivery and it drives the price down.

It’s probably JPM trying to make delivery

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:21 | 1158931 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

nice..... create your own dip

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:53 | 1158754 mogul rider
mogul rider's picture

I find it humerous that my family takes a 100 year view and most people take a 5 minute one.

Interesting perspective many have.

When you sell for a 2 cent profit in the 6th minute and you get thrown into a concentration camp by Obama in the 7th minute, what will your asswipe get you other than a visit in the latrene from hugo the prison guard?

Now gold will ensure that Hugo beats the crap out of every officer from the latrene to the exit as you make yoru getaway. Now there is an interesting perspective on gold my friends.

 

 

 

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:48 | 1158756 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Tom O'Brien is going to be crowing about a PM collapse and a USDX rally tonight.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:00 | 1158786 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'USDX rally'...oh up .01%. 'PM collapse'...silver last at $40.20.

Gee Robo, make sure you put your plastic protector over your TV screen while watching all this 'mayhem' for PM's and wild .01% dollar rally's banter on CNBC later.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:04 | 1158836 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

Really?...only a brain stem would do that.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 22:43 | 1160205 hamstercheese
hamstercheese's picture

hahahaha...brain stem, love it!...can I use that one?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:47 | 1158759 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

It should read "The 100,000 options to Sell 100 shares "

not "The 100,000 options to buy 100 shares "

Those are put options that were bought (and sold, so somebody or group of somebodies made the exact opposite bet).  Honestly not a bad bet.  Silver has gotten way too frothy.  Now it's a race of how fast silver moves down versus the time decay.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:57 | 1158792 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

If I was so sure, I would have sold calls, not bought puts. Why put $15 per at risk? Somethings not right about this.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:58 | 1158811 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Because you would need to put up more margin for writing naked calls.  That would be especially bad if silver had one or two days of rocket-fuel left.

The put is a much safer, more leveraged bet.  Although I would have purchased a 30 instead of a 25, but that's just me.

One this is for sure, they are expecting it to be a fast and bloody correction.  But then, it typically is with silver.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:09 | 1158864 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well thats what Im saying, in a way. If someones SURE SLV (or spot price, cant really tell which from this article) will be half what it is today then why bother buying puts? And if someone expects it to be $25, why buy the $25 puts, isnt that a bit insane when you could be far safer and buy $30 or 35? Unless its a hedge against an amount youre long from, overall just doesnt make sense to me.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:16 | 1158900 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Here's what it likely is, because this is very similar to how I trade.

 

1)  You only have to be confident (not necessarily sure) that SLV has pretty much peaked (which it seems likely).

2)  You want to tie up only a limited amount of capital and do not want to worry about meeting margin requirements (as naked calls require, especially if the price continues to rise, which would totally suck for the call writer).

3)  You want to sell the puts after they have gone up in value, it does not have to reach $25 or lower, just fall fast enough to overcome any time decay.  This is a likely possibility given silvers tendency to fall quickly after a huge run-up like this.

 

Remember, when you write naked calls, technically you have potentially unlimited losses.  When you buy puts, you are only risking what you purchase.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:21 | 1158920 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I guess so, I see your point I just dont do anything with options long ago someone told me its all a rigged game even worse than stock markets. 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:25 | 1158944 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

I purchase them now and then.  An old strategy of mine was to purchase stock that I was bullish on and then write covered calls every month with a strike price about 10% higher. 

If the stock was up 10% in 4 weeks, I was still happy, even if the shares got called away.  Otherwise, I kept the option premium as income.

Could be a rigged game, I have heard the same.  It never stopped me from making money on it though.  However I have lost money too, but I think it's impossible to get everything right.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:25 | 1159392 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Danger summed it up well, but just to add:

The person is taking a bet on the SLV as the vehicle, though it directly tracks SI the silver futures contract. SI trades at a slight discount to SLV.

As for buying way more out of the money puts, they were cheaper, and so as to retrain from using more capital, the purchaser was able to get a nice 'round' amount of 100,000 as opposed to maybe only 70,000 if he would have attacked a higher strike which was more expensive.

And yes, important to re-iterate these puts will most likely be sold back much before the expiry. That way you don't lose on theta (which absolutely kills your option closer to expiry) and can still make away with some nice profits assuming silver pulls back a bit here.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:59 | 1159903 dehdhed
dehdhed's picture

i'd bet the guy who wrote the puts won't be buying them back

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:00 | 1158815 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Dupe post.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:49 | 1158762 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

JPM still green on the day.

Along with most retail names.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:35 | 1158984 Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

You're still a douche.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:51 | 1158771 AboutAverage
AboutAverage's picture

If your dumb enough to trade these goon rigged markets, then you deserve to lose your money.   Here is your answer to where SLV is going?  SLV will go to the price that robo trader can maximize retuns and beat out every arbitrading little guy.    You been told over and over again.   These markets will line up the suckers and then pull the rug.  

Yes, your logic is correct mr. spock.  it would only makes sense that SLV would fall if QE2 ends and interest rates go higher.  Then again, it would only make sense for a bunch of so called financial stocks on the NYSE to be trading at zero right now too.   Robo trader will hunt you down and steal your cash.  If you buy silver or gold, then get the real stuff and put in away.  and regardless of what these goons say or do it does not matter.  In 10 years, it will not matter if you got it cheap or at the current price because the real value will continue to increase.  

At least you can wipe your ass with paper, but blips on a screen are meant for ATARI and FACEBOOK.   If you want to invest in paper, then go into logging.  

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:52 | 1158783 mogul rider
mogul rider's picture

Further, what did gold and silver do in the 18% interest world of the early 80's.

 

Yup the fish get swallowed yet again

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:47 | 1159467 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Amen to that.  The game is to get the retail traders on one side of the trade and then pull the trigger.


Believing in anything is the first step to finding yourself in the same side of the trade as the retail crowd.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:53 | 1158778 AC_Doctor
AC_Doctor's picture

SLV will go to zero because there is nothing in the vaults except JPM paper IOU's and no formal authority to outside audit its shiny that now resides in China and India.

CTFC meeting on contract limits (JPM has 125 million ounces of silver short on the public books right now & God knows how many other naked shorts and OTC shorts) tomorrow at 0930. Maybe the big banks will get their asses spanked after all on position limits...

AC

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:13 | 1158884 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Perhaps someone (JPM) knows SLV is in big trouble? Still has little to do with physical silver in Maniacal Monetize Nation though.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:27 | 1158949 AboutAverage
AboutAverage's picture

AC_Doctor:

I think your looking for this youtube clip from dumb and dumber that sums it up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GSXbgfKFWg

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:54 | 1158781 plata pura
plata pura's picture

Strategic reserves are getting very thin; DOD has the right to manipulate the precious and to some extent gold too. It be this or nationalize domestic miners. Running a proper empire of this scale has to have many blokes on the same page. The pentagon didn't account for the common and middling taking stock in the precious in physical form.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:55 | 1158784 MrBinkeyWhat
MrBinkeyWhat's picture

PM in your closet Bitchez! Or your ammo case. Got my silver dimes at face value...used to be called a "coin collection" HAH! 3200% return. Stay tuned...

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:53 | 1158789 jbc77
jbc77's picture

I'm buying physical silver at any price. I care not about dips, if I catch one, fine, if not when I'm ready to buy I buy.

Anyone who thinks the fed is going to sell $2 trillion in treasuries this year, next year or the year after that is crazy. The money printing will go on in some form or fashion for years. Thats my bet and I'm sticking to it.

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:57 | 1158797 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

before today silver had been up for 8 straight days.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:58 | 1158804 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right, and now its 'beaten back down'... to Fridays price. 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:01 | 1158818 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

kinda puts it in perspective, doesn't it.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:03 | 1158830 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

kinda puts it in perspective, doesn't it.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:59 | 1158819 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

If there is a margin change, I'd like to see who made that options bet.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:01 | 1158825 mogul rider
mogul rider's picture

Not two days ago, somebody baked us for ruining the party by saying the party was getting crowded.

Pumpers got their asses wiped today as they should. You had your heads up your rear end instead of realizing the titanic of silver brilliance was listing heavily to stupid.

Now you are flotsam.

And I"m a silver bull who cashed out Friday. Am I genius? Not on your life, Have I seen this party before? (2008 - where silver went from 20 soemthing to 6 in about 4 weeks and in the early 80's when I lost my first fortune)

Many times i've lost. Don;t listen to the pumpers. When you smell a setup - get out!

You'll know better next time.

Take your profits people if you're trading paper.... If you can't afford to take a hit on the  physical by losses or leverage then sell it too.

 

NEVER! - leverage the precious

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:30 | 1159406 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Nice post. Experience is the best teacher.

Of course people just don't like to read that silver isn't meant for the $100/oz this year. Maybe 2012.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 19:06 | 1159528 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

" (2008 - where silver went from 20 soemthing to 6 in about 4 weeks"

The lowest price at any point in 2008 was the $8.40 intraday low in the last week of October 2008.

Stick to the facts.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:03 | 1158828 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

The Dow was down a paltry 1 point.

However, if you were watching the screens on most of the gold stocks today, it felt like the market was down 320 points.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:13 | 1158896 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Gold down $11, silver down a WHOPPING MASSIVE .60 cents to 40.26....whats the DOW loss in purchasing power just today!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:40 | 1159201 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

++

I admire your stamina in responding to these folks.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 19:06 | 1159537 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

RT,

 

What feels like 320 to you, feels like .32 to the rest of us.

 

Go in peace.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:03 | 1158842 Tail Dogging The Wag
Tail Dogging The Wag's picture

From the Halls of Montezuma,
To the shores of Tripoli!

lala - lala lala la!

Crush the banks, buy physical silver.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:04 | 1158845 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

as the sage said: gold is one of the world's smallest market's traded by the world's biggest money.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:06 | 1158857 savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

as its been pointed out ; a 0.25% increase in rates would cost $33 bill extra in interest charges for the US gov.  now a shock to rates maybe just what the FED require, even though they dont plan on  continous raising, just a short sharp jab to remind you they have some punch.

they wouldnt go much further or for very long, but it would be enogh to shake out the weak hands in precious, and give their paper deal a bit more appeal . as all the pussies race for the exit.

 

what did rates do back in the 80's to get the shock going into precious was up to like 15%

a pissy little  1/4 aint gonna cut, this is some insider getting a trade on the head fake thats comming.

 

but as they say , precious is real wealth,  if you can time your trades, sell high buy low.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:10 | 1158862 savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

oops damn laggy net

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:08 | 1158868 ivars
ivars's picture

Silver is correcting as predicted. TODAY it begins.

Already 5% drop in one day from level 41,98.

Predicted here on March 13th

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/download/file.php?id=2673

Explained here:

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&sta...

My lowest crash point was 42 USD. It almost got there...

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:14 | 1158899 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Crashing' wow yea silver is down .60 cents.....My God the carnage!!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:38 | 1159196 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

LOL - yeah........amazing how these trolls see things.......

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:13 | 1159751 dehdhed
dehdhed's picture

i just bought a new camper because silver "crashed"

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:28 | 1159804 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

Nice!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:10 | 1158879 Lets_Eat_Ben
Lets_Eat_Ben's picture

yea i think im going to join mathman in his psyops. Silver is over-bought. Gold is in a bubble. Take your profits and scurry back to the all mighty dollar. The bull run has come to an end.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:22 | 1158927 Tail Dogging The Wag
Tail Dogging The Wag's picture

... and Lets_Eat_Ben is another Federal Reserve minion, lol

Print my shorts!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:34 | 1158989 Verstehen
Verstehen's picture

Bonds and the dollar are toast. The gold bull has just started. America is screwed. Watch the stampede when the masses realize the US is doomed to a 20% fall in living standards.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:41 | 1159015 r101958
r101958's picture

the 'bull-run' will come to an end when Bernank quits printing. For a sustainable downside he will have to destroy a schmidt-load of greenbacks.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:56 | 1159063 Verstehen
Verstehen's picture

Gold will move higher because everyone outside the West is buying like crazy. This will go on until the US puts itself out of the Middle East and stops encircling other nations. Russia alone will buy 100 tons this year. The American attack dog is going after Russia already.

Watch out for more articles like this one:

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4055355,00.html

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:12 | 1158887 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

'hedge accordingly'

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:14 | 1158898 Tail Dogging The Wag
Tail Dogging The Wag's picture

well... the silver dips don't last very long!

So much paper, so little physical silver.

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:17 | 1158906 kentfinance
kentfinance's picture

so now the ETF drives the commodity?

really?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:40 | 1159005 slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

Exactly.

Who cares about the etf when the real thing just keeps getting rarer and the printers keep on printing.

Unless the bet is that the sheeple will wake up and realise that the SLV etf  is backed by nothing....

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:16 | 1158909 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Not to worry about Silver machinations in the United States.  The price will increasingly be determined by overseas investors.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:19 | 1158921 monopoly
monopoly's picture

It never fails guys. Gold is down 12 bucks, silver .70 cents and all on my trading blog are selling their miners. I have never seen such emotion in any sector as in gold, etc. What the hell are these guys thinking. Nothing goes up Every Day. And the dollar was up 14 cents from its 2009 low. Makes me want to get out my beads and start chanting again.

yes it was a red day for me, but I cannot even begin to remember how many Green days there are. Long, long way to go. I keep thinking of what is running this govt. and country and there is no way I am selling any.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:27 | 1158959 Tail Dogging The Wag
Tail Dogging The Wag's picture

I'd be buying property outside "this country". We're all long precious metals.

You have to laugh at bank employees when they say that if you remove your money, you won't get any interest. I feel sorry for them, the sheeple. Laughing and running away from the bank.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:28 | 1158950 Catullus
Catullus's picture

I'd buy the hedging story more than anything. That's the last consolidation range. Not bad for .10.

Though I could see someone selling the puts and buying more silver. That's like free money at this point.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:30 | 1158960 AboutAverage
AboutAverage's picture

Dumb and Dumber flick for those who need a good laugh.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GSXbgfKFWg

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:51 | 1159047 Tail Dogging The Wag
Tail Dogging The Wag's picture

@AboutAverage

I laughed so hard, I cried!

Those IOU's have more value than Fed Notes. Oh, man! LOVED the clip!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:42 | 1159009 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

I'm holding out for 45 dollar silver this friday. I will buy then.

I will buy then for one simple reason. To make the people who bought at 12 dollars look like retards. Because well where it ends up the difference between 12 dollars and 45 dollars will be so mired and buried in meaninglessness as to make an important lesson. Because you can't go back from the other side of the bridge so the price on the other side of the bridge doesn't mean squat.

I will plunk down 900 bucks for 20 lousy little ounces of silver. The same as I plunked down 284 dollars for 10 lousy ounces when all the trolls were screaming about how it's going to crash and go back to 25.

And mathman aka johnny bravo. You said if gold hit 1450 you'd fuck off.

So it's time for you to fuck off. Go buy a case of Shut the hell up big gulps and sit silently and drink them.

People will get out of dollars. The price rises simply make it a faster moving velocity equation. Governments should know when they are fired. The Fed should know when most everybody wants it dead.

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