Dubai Digits

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Mon, 08/23/2010 - 02:19 | 537050 qrs521
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Fri, 11/27/2009 - 18:16 | 144419 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

i dont think Abu Dhabi, Sharjah, Ajman, Umm al-Quwain, Ras al-Khaimah and Fujariah will have any problems in repaying their debt; but Dubai .... also; reasons, Abu Dhabi takeover of that bitch and for the low price of only 40+ billion dollars .... mark my words the al-Nahyans will BUY it (subtly and in secrecy) to regain political control of the entire UAE (the rest; they got that pretty much covered) 

Fri, 11/27/2009 - 18:23 | 144423 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

Nice...hi Cheeky...its being reported that Dubai World owes massive construction debts for most if not all where did the loan money go????

Fri, 11/27/2009 - 18:29 | 144429 Rollerball
Rollerball's picture


Fri, 11/27/2009 - 18:33 | 144433 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

It went to build the ships for the upcoming
2012 end of the world :)

Fri, 11/27/2009 - 19:08 | 144462 nopat
nopat's picture

Dude where the fuck have you been?

Fri, 11/27/2009 - 19:20 | 144470 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Yes, thats a nice one Cheeky. But ADIA will let them twist in the wind for a little while longer. After all, Dubai is just crap disnyland. No assets worth buying, no oil either. UK banks will take a big bang.

Fri, 11/27/2009 - 20:00 | 144495 BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

UK banks will take a big bang.

possibly, Dubai World doesn't really own interesting assets (maybe with except to DP World, but they already said that DPW is not part of restructuring), all core assets are sitting here:

now, retaining core assets and leaving banks with a bunch of real estate in a middle of nowhere isn't necessarily a bad strategy.

Sat, 11/28/2009 - 11:58 | 144800 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Nicely put,you hit the nail on the head.They've already started the demands....I.E clean up you act or else....

Fri, 11/27/2009 - 18:32 | 144432 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

What is the extent of Credit Default Swaps on this debt? Is there any way to find out short of massive US G bailouts of a AIG ? This is all so opaque it could be nothing or it could be huge.

Sun, 11/29/2009 - 06:56 | 145284 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

yes there is look on dtcc deriv/serv trade information warehouse...the gross notional of dubai cds is only $5bn...this is tiny and will NOT cause any disruption in the market.

Fri, 11/27/2009 - 18:34 | 144435 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

these aren't even aig numbers. yawn.

Sat, 11/28/2009 - 04:24 | 144689 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Not yet..

Fri, 11/27/2009 - 19:12 | 144464 digalert
digalert's picture

"off balance sheet" ???


We all know this is highly irregular and almost never done, especially when working with budgets.

Fri, 11/27/2009 - 19:14 | 144465 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I'm confused, or you are...

UAE = Abu Dhabi + Dubai + other emirates
Think of it like USA = California + Miami + others.

Is this the state debt or the state debt + the corporate debt of state owned companies? To me it looks like just the state debt, which is not what is being stood still.

Fri, 11/27/2009 - 19:18 | 144468 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Also note that Dubai is very well known for the fact that if they don't feel like paying, that they just don't.

Meaning, that the debt is much larger is all bills from foreign contractors would be paid.

Also, Dubai doesn't has a lot more other income besides tourism. And that won't be kicking back in any time soon.

Maintenance of all those big sandcastles and islands costs billions because of the hard environment. Let's call Dubai our new Babylon ;)

Fri, 11/27/2009 - 19:21 | 144471 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Iceland redux

Fri, 11/27/2009 - 19:30 | 144476 . . .
. . .'s picture

Dubai is just a warm up for bigger things.  Dubai isn't enough scare people into buying the Treasuries Geithner is selling.  He'll need to trigger a bigger crisis to bring people home to the bombed out buck and the long bond.  Especially if Geithner really does want to extend the average maturity of Fed debt.

Fri, 11/27/2009 - 19:33 | 144480 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

Dubai default is like when a big corporation buys a park and builds a parking lot. No one gives a shit, and the kids,the dealer, the junkies and the whores just move further down the road and hang in front of the local 7-11 .... but ... Ukraine, Greece or Ireland; now THAT would do some damage ....

Fri, 11/27/2009 - 20:55 | 144534 Assetman
Assetman's picture

+ infinity.

Fri, 11/27/2009 - 21:00 | 144537 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Everything Cheeky said just add on. Who gives a crap how much money bankrupt banks lose. They are BANKRUPT. They'll just lie harder.

Iceland went bankrupt. McDonalds had to leave because they couldn't compete with homegrown currency using restaraunts. Half the world is forcing, running, backing out of the collective conciousness with loaded shotguns aimed at the IMF. Whatever drops out from default is just icing on the cake. Screw dubai, I'm eyeing greece, ireland, ukraine. It's going to take alot more lies and failure to even put a dent in UK/USA crazy. They'll patch it up with future non-existant taxes and revenue streams and citizen labor camps etc knowing they can't pull it off. Go on a spending spree before losing your job, buying gold, pulling your 401k out and stuffing it in a mattress. It's like screwing a wild boar. There's really no right way or wrong way to do it. It's just unpleasant no matter what strategy you use.

Fri, 11/27/2009 - 23:14 | 144580 Assetman
Assetman's picture

You see to know this from experience, as unsettling as that may seem.

Sat, 11/28/2009 - 16:29 | 144947 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

LOL it's metaphor and it's not. This wild pig is going to have a carthartic release. One way or another.

Fri, 11/27/2009 - 19:36 | 144482 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

cue chitibank and it's 1.9 Billion of Dubai CRE

Fri, 11/27/2009 - 19:48 | 144486 PeterB
PeterB's picture

If Dubai was a parking lot they would be making money LOL

Fri, 11/27/2009 - 20:00 | 144494 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Remember when Mish was crying about American oil money being used to finance Dubai bubble real estate? ( Turns out all that money came from UK banks! Hahahaha! Suckers!

Fri, 11/27/2009 - 20:08 | 144501 joebren
joebren's picture

'Tim - hello - are you there? Dubai qualifies for Tarp assistance, right?'

Have a look at Dubai on google earth - what a site. Drive a few miles and visit the sandy suburb of Al Awir or maybe Lahbab - reminds me of the London and New York suburbs and other financial hubs - NOT. Other close neighbors - Iran.  Whose had their head buried in the sand?

Fri, 11/27/2009 - 20:13 | 144508 phaesed
phaesed's picture

It's all about the Islamic Bond.... if that defaults, hell will break loose. Islam is already suspicious of Interest as it is, no matter if they package it as RoR.

Fri, 11/27/2009 - 20:16 | 144509 PolishHammer
PolishHammer's picture

In other news, Tiger might have to swap $500m to his soon to be ex-wife


He got ran off his house by a golfclub wielding swede supermodel at 2am thanksgiving.  Must have been some dinner.

Fri, 11/27/2009 - 20:19 | 144513 Gilgamesh
Gilgamesh's picture

Guess she didn't like his disclosure of total exposure to Dubai.

Fri, 11/27/2009 - 20:38 | 144524 J.B. Books
J.B. Books's picture

Next time he'll help with the dishes...



Fri, 11/27/2009 - 21:30 | 144548 geopol
geopol's picture

Thankx Marla,,


This is for you, If only you knew how much we appreciate..


Phil Perry


Fri, 11/27/2009 - 21:33 | 144549 rhinotrader
rhinotrader's picture

So Cheeky, you buy into weakness?

Fri, 11/27/2009 - 23:00 | 144573 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Air China, China Eastern COSCO defaulted on derivative contracts. These are China state owned enterprises and the defaulted amounts are said to have been in the billions. Oddly enough, the world’s financial markets did not come crumbling down. So who gives a hoot except financial dommster porn junies.

Fri, 11/27/2009 - 23:03 | 144576 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Air China, China Eastern and COSCO defaulted on derivative contracts. These are China state owned enterprises and the defaulted amounts are said to have been in the billions. Oddly enough, the world’s financial markets did not come crumbling down. So who give a hoot about Dubai except financial doomster porn addicts?

Sat, 11/28/2009 - 00:03 | 144601 sawyer
sawyer's picture

So much wealth and waste yet the arabs keep blaming Israel for the palestians' misery. Over a million palestians live in extreme poverty in Gaza and Lebanon. If only a portion of those 180 biilions went to finance the construction of affordable housing and manufacturing industry in Gaza instead of financing underground tunnels and rocket making factories. Maybe Dubai could be the promised land for the palestians solving the middle East conflict once and for all?

Jim Lafleur

Sat, 11/28/2009 - 02:11 | 144662 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Shut the fuck up, you braying jackass.  You haven't even scratched the surface on the issue with your idiotic blather.

I am Chumbawamba.

Sat, 11/28/2009 - 07:27 | 144713 Marla Singer
Marla Singer's picture

Be nice, Chumba.

Sat, 11/28/2009 - 12:46 | 144823 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Don't get me started.... Shit for brains.

Sat, 11/28/2009 - 01:17 | 144643 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I have yet to see anyone in the media mention Dubai's GDP. A couple of years ago it was significantly less than $80 billion. I doubt it has grown much.

Sat, 11/28/2009 - 01:18 | 144645 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown said he and Financial Stability Board Chairman Mario Draghi are confident that Dubai’s debt troubles are “containable.”


Where have we heard that before?


Containable?  Like in a garbage can?


Take out the papers and the trash

Or you don't get no spendin' cash

Get all that garbage out of sight

Or you don't go out Friday night

Yakety yak (don't talk back)

Sat, 11/28/2009 - 01:54 | 144654 chindit13
chindit13's picture

The ramifications of Dubai are not yet known.  First is the direct impact, as the assets are effectively property of a sovereign state who is unlikely to relinquish control to any of the foreign creditors (sorry HSBC and STAN).  Second, as much money as ADIA has, they have demonstrated that they are quite fallible ($7.5 billion to C at ~$30 exactly two years ago to the day) and could carry brinksmanship---if that is what this is---a bit too far.  Third, the size, or lack thereof, of anyone's CDS exposure on the debt is not known.  Fourth, Dubai could well serve as a reminder that sovereign debt is "default-able", and may lead to major increases in spreads on other sovdebt, plus concomitant demands for collateral increases on any CDS' written on sovdebt, as well as remind the market how exposed Eurobanks are to EM's.

Dubai could turn out to be nothing, or it could turn out to be the latest canary in a coal mine.  That so many people, even habitually bearish types, are so quick to dismiss Dubai as a non-event has me wondering about the degree of complacency in the market, and the susceptibility of the markets to a new tumble.

If nothing else, Dubai may have given us the order of battle if and when the next systemic event does occur (dollar up, yen up big, gold and commodities down, equities down big, oil down, short end up).

Sat, 11/28/2009 - 02:16 | 144665 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Like a young boy in the presence of a Gulf Arab sheik, Dubai is fucked.

If nothing else, Dubai may have given us the order of battle if and when the next systemic event does occur (dollar up, yen up big, gold and commodities down, equities down big, oil down, short end up).

I don't think so.  I think each crash on our way to the ultimate bottom is going to turn out differently than the previous in those subtle ways that are always hard (or impossible) to predict.

I am Chumbawamba.

Sat, 11/28/2009 - 15:00 | 144890 Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

Yep...if only it was that easy to make money in the markets. I can say one thing for sure though - PM shorts will be killed during the next phase of "the crisis"...wait...IT'S ALREADY HAPPENING.

Wed, 04/21/2010 - 23:06 | 311977 velobabe
velobabe's picture

$7.5 billion to C at ~$30 exactly two years ago to the day

oh baby where is your mind?

Sat, 11/28/2009 - 06:57 | 144706 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

when non professional and idiots r on the key posts .
this is what we can say the start of

Sat, 11/28/2009 - 08:25 | 144718 Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

$184 billion ain't all that much - the Fed prints that much EVERYDAY.

Sat, 11/28/2009 - 08:40 | 144719 eggy123
eggy123's picture

So I'll go long FXP or EEV big-time on Monday at the open. Hopefully take my meager profit before the big boys come in for the customary ass-raping of all the leverged short ETFs. Sounds like a plan, please come and visit me in the homeless shelter in January.

Sat, 11/28/2009 - 09:09 | 144734 Miyagi_san
Miyagi_san's picture

tight stops on monday

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