Dubai Digits

Marla Singer's picture

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qrs521's picture

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Cheeky Bastard's picture

i dont think Abu Dhabi, Sharjah, Ajman, Umm al-Quwain, Ras al-Khaimah and Fujariah will have any problems in repaying their debt; but Dubai .... also; reasons, Abu Dhabi takeover of that bitch and for the low price of only 40+ billion dollars .... mark my words the al-Nahyans will BUY it (subtly and in secrecy) to regain political control of the entire UAE (the rest; they got that pretty much covered) 

Sqworl's picture

Nice...hi Cheeky...its being reported that Dubai World owes massive construction debts for most if not all building...so where did the loan money go????

Anonymous's picture

It went to build the ships for the upcoming
2012 end of the world :)

nopat's picture

Dude where the fuck have you been?

Anonymous's picture

Yes, thats a nice one Cheeky. But ADIA will let them twist in the wind for a little while longer. After all, Dubai is just crap disnyland. No assets worth buying, no oil either. UK banks will take a big bang.

BorisTheBlade's picture

UK banks will take a big bang.

possibly, Dubai World doesn't really own interesting assets (maybe with except to DP World, but they already said that DPW is not part of restructuring), all core assets are sitting here: http://www.icd.gov.ae/portfolio.html

now, retaining core assets and leaving banks with a bunch of real estate in a middle of nowhere isn't necessarily a bad strategy.

Anonymous's picture

Nicely put,you hit the nail on the head.They've already started the demands....I.E clean up you act or else....

Anonymous's picture

What is the extent of Credit Default Swaps on this debt? Is there any way to find out short of massive US G bailouts of a AIG ? This is all so opaque it could be nothing or it could be huge.

Anonymous's picture

yes there is look on dtcc deriv/serv trade information warehouse...the gross notional of dubai cds is only $5bn...this is tiny and will NOT cause any disruption in the market.

Careless Whisper's picture

these aren't even aig numbers. yawn.

digalert's picture

"off balance sheet" ???

 

We all know this is highly irregular and almost never done, especially when working with budgets.

Anonymous's picture

I'm confused, or you are...

UAE = Abu Dhabi + Dubai + other emirates
Think of it like USA = California + Miami + others.

Is this the state debt or the state debt + the corporate debt of state owned companies? To me it looks like just the state debt, which is not what is being stood still.

Anonymous's picture

Also note that Dubai is very well known for the fact that if they don't feel like paying, that they just don't.

Meaning, that the debt is much larger is all bills from foreign contractors would be paid.

Also, Dubai doesn't has a lot more other income besides tourism. And that won't be kicking back in any time soon.

AND THEIS BIGGEST PROBLEM:
Maintenance of all those big sandcastles and islands costs billions because of the hard environment. Let's call Dubai our new Babylon ;)

Anonymous's picture

Iceland redux

. . .'s picture

Dubai is just a warm up for bigger things.  Dubai isn't enough scare people into buying the Treasuries Geithner is selling.  He'll need to trigger a bigger crisis to bring people home to the bombed out buck and the long bond.  Especially if Geithner really does want to extend the average maturity of Fed debt.

Cheeky Bastard's picture

Dubai default is like when a big corporation buys a park and builds a parking lot. No one gives a shit, and the kids,the dealer, the junkies and the whores just move further down the road and hang in front of the local 7-11 .... but ... Ukraine, Greece or Ireland; now THAT would do some damage ....

Hephasteus's picture

Everything Cheeky said just add on. Who gives a crap how much money bankrupt banks lose. They are BANKRUPT. They'll just lie harder.

Iceland went bankrupt. McDonalds had to leave because they couldn't compete with homegrown currency using restaraunts. Half the world is forcing, running, backing out of the collective conciousness with loaded shotguns aimed at the IMF. Whatever drops out from default is just icing on the cake. Screw dubai, I'm eyeing greece, ireland, ukraine. It's going to take alot more lies and failure to even put a dent in UK/USA crazy. They'll patch it up with future non-existant taxes and revenue streams and citizen labor camps etc knowing they can't pull it off. Go on a spending spree before losing your job, buying gold, pulling your 401k out and stuffing it in a mattress. It's like screwing a wild boar. There's really no right way or wrong way to do it. It's just unpleasant no matter what strategy you use.

Assetman's picture

You see to know this from experience, as unsettling as that may seem.

Hephasteus's picture

LOL it's metaphor and it's not. This wild pig is going to have a carthartic release. One way or another.

Anonymous's picture

cue chitibank and it's 1.9 Billion of Dubai CRE

PeterB's picture

If Dubai was a parking lot they would be making money LOL

Anonymous's picture

Remember when Mish was crying about American oil money being used to finance Dubai bubble real estate? (http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/02/where-is-all-oil-mone...) Turns out all that money came from UK banks! Hahahaha! Suckers!

joebren's picture

'Tim - hello - are you there? Dubai qualifies for Tarp assistance, right?'

Have a look at Dubai on google earth - what a site. Drive a few miles and visit the sandy suburb of Al Awir or maybe Lahbab - reminds me of the London and New York suburbs and other financial hubs - NOT. Other close neighbors - Iran.  Whose had their head buried in the sand?

phaesed's picture

It's all about the Islamic Bond.... if that defaults, hell will break loose. Islam is already suspicious of Interest as it is, no matter if they package it as RoR.

PolishHammer's picture

In other news, Tiger might have to swap $500m to his soon to be ex-wife

 

He got ran off his house by a golfclub wielding swede supermodel at 2am thanksgiving.  Must have been some dinner.

Gilgamesh's picture

Guess she didn't like his disclosure of total exposure to Dubai.

J.B. Books's picture

Next time he'll help with the dishes...

Books

 

geopol's picture

Thankx Marla,,

 

This is for you, If only you knew how much we appreciate..

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GV81PY80ks&feature=fvw

 

Phil Perry

 

rhinotrader's picture

So Cheeky, you buy into weakness?

Anonymous's picture

Air China, China Eastern COSCO defaulted on derivative contracts. These are China state owned enterprises and the defaulted amounts are said to have been in the billions. Oddly enough, the world’s financial markets did not come crumbling down. So who gives a hoot except financial dommster porn junies.

Anonymous's picture

Air China, China Eastern and COSCO defaulted on derivative contracts. These are China state owned enterprises and the defaulted amounts are said to have been in the billions. Oddly enough, the world’s financial markets did not come crumbling down. So who give a hoot about Dubai except financial doomster porn addicts?

sawyer's picture

So much wealth and waste yet the arabs keep blaming Israel for the palestians' misery. Over a million palestians live in extreme poverty in Gaza and Lebanon. If only a portion of those 180 biilions went to finance the construction of affordable housing and manufacturing industry in Gaza instead of financing underground tunnels and rocket making factories. Maybe Dubai could be the promised land for the palestians solving the middle East conflict once and for all?

Jim Lafleur

chumbawamba's picture

Shut the fuck up, you braying jackass.  You haven't even scratched the surface on the issue with your idiotic blather.

I am Chumbawamba.

Anonymous's picture

Don't get me started.... Shit for brains.

http://www.ifamericansknew.org

Anonymous's picture

I have yet to see anyone in the media mention Dubai's GDP. A couple of years ago it was significantly less than $80 billion. I doubt it has grown much.

tom a taxpayer's picture

U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown said he and Financial Stability Board Chairman Mario Draghi are confident that Dubai’s debt troubles are “containable.”

 Containable? 

Where have we heard that before?

 

Containable?  Like in a garbage can?

 

Take out the papers and the trash

Or you don't get no spendin' cash

Get all that garbage out of sight

Or you don't go out Friday night

Yakety yak (don't talk back)

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wf7seK3n9rE

chindit13's picture

The ramifications of Dubai are not yet known.  First is the direct impact, as the assets are effectively property of a sovereign state who is unlikely to relinquish control to any of the foreign creditors (sorry HSBC and STAN).  Second, as much money as ADIA has, they have demonstrated that they are quite fallible ($7.5 billion to C at ~$30 exactly two years ago to the day) and could carry brinksmanship---if that is what this is---a bit too far.  Third, the size, or lack thereof, of anyone's CDS exposure on the debt is not known.  Fourth, Dubai could well serve as a reminder that sovereign debt is "default-able", and may lead to major increases in spreads on other sovdebt, plus concomitant demands for collateral increases on any CDS' written on sovdebt, as well as remind the market how exposed Eurobanks are to EM's.

Dubai could turn out to be nothing, or it could turn out to be the latest canary in a coal mine.  That so many people, even habitually bearish types, are so quick to dismiss Dubai as a non-event has me wondering about the degree of complacency in the market, and the susceptibility of the markets to a new tumble.

If nothing else, Dubai may have given us the order of battle if and when the next systemic event does occur (dollar up, yen up big, gold and commodities down, equities down big, oil down, short end up).

chumbawamba's picture

Like a young boy in the presence of a Gulf Arab sheik, Dubai is fucked.

If nothing else, Dubai may have given us the order of battle if and when the next systemic event does occur (dollar up, yen up big, gold and commodities down, equities down big, oil down, short end up).

I don't think so.  I think each crash on our way to the ultimate bottom is going to turn out differently than the previous in those subtle ways that are always hard (or impossible) to predict.

I am Chumbawamba.

Gordon_Gekko's picture

Yep...if only it was that easy to make money in the markets. I can say one thing for sure though - PM shorts will be killed during the next phase of "the crisis"...wait...IT'S ALREADY HAPPENING.

velobabe's picture

$7.5 billion to C at ~$30 exactly two years ago to the day

oh baby where is your mind?

Anonymous's picture

when non professional and idiots r on the key posts .
this is what we can say the start of

Gordon_Gekko's picture

$184 billion ain't all that much - the Fed prints that much EVERYDAY.

eggy123's picture

So I'll go long FXP or EEV big-time on Monday at the open. Hopefully take my meager profit before the big boys come in for the customary ass-raping of all the leverged short ETFs. Sounds like a plan, please come and visit me in the homeless shelter in January.