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Dubai Digits
Debt:
United Arab Emirates (via Bank of America - Amortization figures only):
Total Debt: $184 billion
of which...
Dubai: $88 billion
Abu Dhabi: $90 billion
Dubai:
Due in:
2010: $12.0 billion
2011: $19.0 billion
2012: $18.0 billion
2013: $ 7.5 billion
2014: $ 5.5 billion
Abu Dhabi:
Due in:
2010: $ 8.5 billion
2011: $14.7 billion
2012: $10.0 billion
2013: $12.4 billion
2014: $ 9.4 billion
UAE:
Due in:2010: $22.0 billion
2011: $34.7 billion
2012: $29.0 billion
2013: $20.3 billion
2014: $14.9 billion
Dubai World:Total Debt $26.5 billion
Due in next 36 months: ~$20.4 billion
Creditors:
Of United Arab Emirates (By Origin via Credit Suisse citing Bank for International Settlements):
United Kingdom: $50.2 billion
France: $11.3 billion
Germany: $10.6 billion
United States: $10.6 billion
Japan: $ 9.0 billion
Switzerland: $ 4.6 billion
Netherlands: $ 4.5 billion
Of United Arab Emirates (By Entity via Credit Suisse, citing Emirates Bank Association):
HSBC Bank Middle East Limited: $17.0 billion
Standard Chartered Bank: $ 7.8 billion
Barlays Bank Plc: $ 3.6 billion
ABN-Amro (RBS): $ 2.1 billion
Arab Bank Plc: $ 2.1 billion
Citibank: $ 1.9 billion
Bank of Baroda: $ 1.8 billion
Bank Saderat Iran: $ 1.7 billion
BNP Parabas: $ 1.7 billion
Lloyds: $ 1.6 billion
Other notes of note:
- UBS speculates that (among other possibilities) $80-90 billion (which is already over 100% of GDP) may be a low figure for Dubai's debt and that significant "off-balance sheet" amounts might explain the restructuring attempt
- The Dubai government is on holiday (Eid Al-Adha) until December 6th
- Abu Dhabi's Sovereign Wealth Fund (generally thought to command upwards of $500 billion) may have significantly less available. (Rumors of $125 billion in 2008 losses abounded last year). Bloomberg quotes sources to the effect that Abu Dhabi SWF's AUM has been "overstated, sometimes by as much as 100 percent."
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UAE SWF has assets >$600b
http://www.swfinstitute.org/fund/adia.php
http://www.adia.ae/default.asp
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i dont think Abu Dhabi, Sharjah, Ajman, Umm al-Quwain, Ras al-Khaimah and Fujariah will have any problems in repaying their debt; but Dubai .... also; reasons, Abu Dhabi takeover of that bitch and for the low price of only 40+ billion dollars .... mark my words the al-Nahyans will BUY it (subtly and in secrecy) to regain political control of the entire UAE (the rest; they got that pretty much covered)
Nice...hi Cheeky...its being reported that Dubai World owes massive construction debts for most if not all building...so where did the loan money go????
Halliburton?
It went to build the ships for the upcoming
2012 end of the world :)
Dude where the fuck have you been?
Yes, thats a nice one Cheeky. But ADIA will let them twist in the wind for a little while longer. After all, Dubai is just crap disnyland. No assets worth buying, no oil either. UK banks will take a big bang.
UK banks will take a big bang.
possibly, Dubai World doesn't really own interesting assets (maybe with except to DP World, but they already said that DPW is not part of restructuring), all core assets are sitting here: http://www.icd.gov.ae/portfolio.html
now, retaining core assets and leaving banks with a bunch of real estate in a middle of nowhere isn't necessarily a bad strategy.
Nicely put,you hit the nail on the head.They've already started the demands....I.E clean up you act or else....
What is the extent of Credit Default Swaps on this debt? Is there any way to find out short of massive US G bailouts of a AIG ? This is all so opaque it could be nothing or it could be huge.
yes there is look on dtcc deriv/serv trade information warehouse...the gross notional of dubai cds is only $5bn...this is tiny and will NOT cause any disruption in the market.
these aren't even aig numbers. yawn.
Not yet..
"off balance sheet" ???
We all know this is highly irregular and almost never done, especially when working with budgets.
I'm confused, or you are...
UAE = Abu Dhabi + Dubai + other emirates
Think of it like USA = California + Miami + others.
Is this the state debt or the state debt + the corporate debt of state owned companies? To me it looks like just the state debt, which is not what is being stood still.
Also note that Dubai is very well known for the fact that if they don't feel like paying, that they just don't.
Meaning, that the debt is much larger is all bills from foreign contractors would be paid.
Also, Dubai doesn't has a lot more other income besides tourism. And that won't be kicking back in any time soon.
AND THEIS BIGGEST PROBLEM:
Maintenance of all those big sandcastles and islands costs billions because of the hard environment. Let's call Dubai our new Babylon ;)
Iceland redux
Dubai is just a warm up for bigger things. Dubai isn't enough scare people into buying the Treasuries Geithner is selling. He'll need to trigger a bigger crisis to bring people home to the bombed out buck and the long bond. Especially if Geithner really does want to extend the average maturity of Fed debt.
Dubai default is like when a big corporation buys a park and builds a parking lot. No one gives a shit, and the kids,the dealer, the junkies and the whores just move further down the road and hang in front of the local 7-11 .... but ... Ukraine, Greece or Ireland; now THAT would do some damage ....
+ infinity.
Everything Cheeky said just add on. Who gives a crap how much money bankrupt banks lose. They are BANKRUPT. They'll just lie harder.
Iceland went bankrupt. McDonalds had to leave because they couldn't compete with homegrown currency using restaraunts. Half the world is forcing, running, backing out of the collective conciousness with loaded shotguns aimed at the IMF. Whatever drops out from default is just icing on the cake. Screw dubai, I'm eyeing greece, ireland, ukraine. It's going to take alot more lies and failure to even put a dent in UK/USA crazy. They'll patch it up with future non-existant taxes and revenue streams and citizen labor camps etc knowing they can't pull it off. Go on a spending spree before losing your job, buying gold, pulling your 401k out and stuffing it in a mattress. It's like screwing a wild boar. There's really no right way or wrong way to do it. It's just unpleasant no matter what strategy you use.
You see to know this from experience, as unsettling as that may seem.
LOL it's metaphor and it's not. This wild pig is going to have a carthartic release. One way or another.
cue chitibank and it's 1.9 Billion of Dubai CRE
If Dubai was a parking lot they would be making money LOL
Remember when Mish was crying about American oil money being used to finance Dubai bubble real estate? (http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/02/where-is-all-oil-mone...) Turns out all that money came from UK banks! Hahahaha! Suckers!
'Tim - hello - are you there? Dubai qualifies for Tarp assistance, right?'
Have a look at Dubai on google earth - what a site. Drive a few miles and visit the sandy suburb of Al Awir or maybe Lahbab - reminds me of the London and New York suburbs and other financial hubs - NOT. Other close neighbors - Iran. Whose had their head buried in the sand?
It's all about the Islamic Bond.... if that defaults, hell will break loose. Islam is already suspicious of Interest as it is, no matter if they package it as RoR.
In other news, Tiger might have to swap $500m to his soon to be ex-wife
He got ran off his house by a golfclub wielding swede supermodel at 2am thanksgiving. Must have been some dinner.
Guess she didn't like his disclosure of total exposure to Dubai.
Next time he'll help with the dishes...
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Phil Perry
So Cheeky, you buy into weakness?
Air China, China Eastern COSCO defaulted on derivative contracts. These are China state owned enterprises and the defaulted amounts are said to have been in the billions. Oddly enough, the world’s financial markets did not come crumbling down. So who gives a hoot except financial dommster porn junies.
Air China, China Eastern and COSCO defaulted on derivative contracts. These are China state owned enterprises and the defaulted amounts are said to have been in the billions. Oddly enough, the world’s financial markets did not come crumbling down. So who give a hoot about Dubai except financial doomster porn addicts?
So much wealth and waste yet the arabs keep blaming Israel for the palestians' misery. Over a million palestians live in extreme poverty in Gaza and Lebanon. If only a portion of those 180 biilions went to finance the construction of affordable housing and manufacturing industry in Gaza instead of financing underground tunnels and rocket making factories. Maybe Dubai could be the promised land for the palestians solving the middle East conflict once and for all?
Jim Lafleur
Shut the fuck up, you braying jackass. You haven't even scratched the surface on the issue with your idiotic blather.
I am Chumbawamba.
Be nice, Chumba.
Don't get me started.... Shit for brains.
http://www.ifamericansknew.org
I have yet to see anyone in the media mention Dubai's GDP. A couple of years ago it was significantly less than $80 billion. I doubt it has grown much.
U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown said he and Financial Stability Board Chairman Mario Draghi are confident that Dubai’s debt troubles are “containable.”
Containable?
Where have we heard that before?
Containable? Like in a garbage can?
Take out the papers and the trash
Or you don't get no spendin' cash
Get all that garbage out of sight
Or you don't go out Friday night
Yakety yak (don't talk back)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wf7seK3n9rE
The ramifications of Dubai are not yet known. First is the direct impact, as the assets are effectively property of a sovereign state who is unlikely to relinquish control to any of the foreign creditors (sorry HSBC and STAN). Second, as much money as ADIA has, they have demonstrated that they are quite fallible ($7.5 billion to C at ~$30 exactly two years ago to the day) and could carry brinksmanship---if that is what this is---a bit too far. Third, the size, or lack thereof, of anyone's CDS exposure on the debt is not known. Fourth, Dubai could well serve as a reminder that sovereign debt is "default-able", and may lead to major increases in spreads on other sovdebt, plus concomitant demands for collateral increases on any CDS' written on sovdebt, as well as remind the market how exposed Eurobanks are to EM's.
Dubai could turn out to be nothing, or it could turn out to be the latest canary in a coal mine. That so many people, even habitually bearish types, are so quick to dismiss Dubai as a non-event has me wondering about the degree of complacency in the market, and the susceptibility of the markets to a new tumble.
If nothing else, Dubai may have given us the order of battle if and when the next systemic event does occur (dollar up, yen up big, gold and commodities down, equities down big, oil down, short end up).
Like a young boy in the presence of a Gulf Arab sheik, Dubai is fucked.
If nothing else, Dubai may have given us the order of battle if and when the next systemic event does occur (dollar up, yen up big, gold and commodities down, equities down big, oil down, short end up).
I don't think so. I think each crash on our way to the ultimate bottom is going to turn out differently than the previous in those subtle ways that are always hard (or impossible) to predict.
I am Chumbawamba.
Yep...if only it was that easy to make money in the markets. I can say one thing for sure though - PM shorts will be killed during the next phase of "the crisis"...wait...IT'S ALREADY HAPPENING.
$7.5 billion to C at ~$30 exactly two years ago to the day
oh baby where is your mind?
when non professional and idiots r on the key posts .
this is what we can say the start of
$184 billion ain't all that much - the Fed prints that much EVERYDAY.
So I'll go long FXP or EEV big-time on Monday at the open. Hopefully take my meager profit before the big boys come in for the customary ass-raping of all the leverged short ETFs. Sounds like a plan, please come and visit me in the homeless shelter in January.
tight stops on monday
i dont think Abu Dhabi, Sharjah, Ajman, Umm al-Quwain, Ras al-Khaimah and Fujariah will have any problems in repaying their debt; but Dubai .... also; reasons, Abu Dhabi takeover of that bitch and for the low price of only 40+ billion dollars .... mark my words the al-Nahyans will BUY it (subtly and in secrecy) to regain political control of the entire UAE (the rest; they got that pretty much covered)
Enough said...........
good bye dubai....not going 2 miss u
So, UK got fucked but not so hard...
http://www.thenational.ae/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20091128/BUSINESS/7...
Interesting take on it in the UAE paper. Its not all that and apparently, kneeing your creditors in the nuts is a sign of financial maturity. Doesn't sound good for the bondholders.
These billions is small change over the next couple of years for the oil rich states in UAE. There is likely more to this story that just what is out so far.
admin
http://invetrics.com
Whatever happened to CitiBank investing $8 billion into Dubai with Taxpayer's bailout money? It is definitely more than the stated $1.8 billion.
http://www.7days.ae/storydetails.php?id=75035&title=US+outrage+over+Citi...
US outrage over Citi loan to Dubai
The US public will be “outraged” by Citibank’s $8 billion loan to Dubai just six weeks after the bank was bailed out, US House of Representatives domestic policy subcommittee chair-man has said. Dennis Kucinich commented on the Dubai loan and other US banking investments as a congressional panel released a report that strongly questioned Citibank’s actions. The report, shown to 7DAYS, cites the Dubai loan as the largest of the “questionable transactions” by banks after the US government bailed them out. It notes that the loan to Dubai’s public sector came on December 14, just six weeks after the US government gave Citibank a $25 billion bail-out.
The report quotes Win Bischoof, then chairman of Citi, as saying the bank agreed to the Dubai loan because “we continue to place the Gulf region among our globally most significant markets”. The report also questions JP Morgan’s $1 billion investment in India and Bank of America’s $7 billion investment in China. “When the American people find that their tax dollars, which were supposed to be used to get us out of this financial crisis, are instead being used to ship jobs and investments overseas, there will be outrage,” Kucinich said. The report notes the loans were not illegal and that it is not known if they were directly funded by bail-out funds. A Citibank official was quoted at the time as saying the $8 billion came from the bank’s own funds and third party sources. The report was released as the committee prepares to question banking chiefs about their use of bail-out funds.
Marla the Dubai World total debt is way above your stated number - more like 60 BN.
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