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Dumb And Dumber

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From Nic Lenoir of ICAP

As the competition as to who will print the most money & debt to manufacture artificial growth rage, the US and the UK seem to be our two finalists. China was disqualified as the lack of transparency makes it difficult to quantify how much public spending is done in order to pump GDP numbers, though we do not doubt they try thir very best.

All jokes aside, that's why the USD and the GBP have been generally the butt of the FX markets. Whether these currencies continue to weaken against the rest of the space, especially in the case of the USD, relies on what gives first: money creation or capital markets. As long as the markets don't force governments to stop, or a catalyst triggers a return to risk aversion, the ramp up will continue in equities as liquidity keeps pouring into the markets courtesy of the governments until the bubble levels become unreachable. Personally I would prefer the bubble to burst before it's too damaging but it's probably wishful thinking.

For those however who don't really want to call the end of the bubble and get too direcional, you can try investing in relative value between the two biggest printers of cash: the US and the UK. On the daily chart we see bearish divergence in RSI, but the RSI has actually retraced considerably from the highs, and at this point it could be a breather before a run up in GBPUSD. The 50 day moving average which has been a fitting envelop of recent moves has caught up with prices and we are currently consolidating before a break-out either way. There is a very clear H&S pattern with the neckline coming in at 1.6150 which we failed to break yesterday. Zooming, we see that we have a morning star pattern on the daily candlesticks right on the neckline of the H&S. Taking a step back and looking at weekly chart, we see that we are getting close to a strong resistance in RSI though. Elements are conflicting which shows that the market is having a hard time picking the worst horse to bet on. Given the stron H&S signal we would think short term GBPUSD should rally to maybe retets the intermediate resistance at 1.6740/1.6750, but bigger picture we conserve for now a bearish preference.

Good luck trading,

Nic

 

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Tue, 09/22/2009 - 17:35 | 76766 pigpen
pigpen's picture

Any ideas who will speak the the US dollar funeral?

Will there be a wake? What should we send to taxpayers in lieu of flowers?

When does this become political and all eyes even eyes of idiots glance over at the FED and US Treasury?

So many question.

TD or Robot, will you guys give an eulogy for my beloved national currency?

Or maybe this is a job for Ben Dover? Maybe we can have wallstreetpro2 do some sort of audio visual performance art piece.

Any suggestions will be welcomed.

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 17:37 | 76768 Stevm30
Stevm30's picture

Part of that eulogy should be "Let the death of the dollar be a symbol to future generations: When your politicians say 'I am not a crook'; they are lying."

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 17:50 | 76783 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

As a short term trade isn't this bullish for the dollar espically as the dxy hasent cracked 76 yet and looks like it may have a final bounce up before it goes through it on to 71

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 21:21 | 76932 Steak
Steak's picture

Which country would consider it a delicious irony to send a couple cruise missiles to the dollar's funeral...

Wed, 09/23/2009 - 01:35 | 77101 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Won't the dollar take a clue from the breathtaking
Financial rally since March 2009?

Wed, 09/23/2009 - 12:21 | 77368 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Anyone been following Timmay's headline pronouncements
todday re the Good Fed Track Record and not banning
naked credit default swaps?

Priceless.

Things might be getting desperate in DC...

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 17:45 | 76777 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

The ponzi is dead. Long live the new ponzi.

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 17:48 | 76780 pigpen
pigpen's picture

We imperialistic, leveraged to crony finance, well-armed anglo saxons are not long for this world.

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 17:49 | 76782 par068
par068's picture

That's it,

Green Shoots = New Ponzi

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 17:50 | 76784 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

In a race to the bottom who has the most juice?

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 17:51 | 76785 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

It's too quiet.  Something is imminent.  I can taste it.

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 09/23/2009 - 01:36 | 77102 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Look at the chart of USD:GOLD which shows a double bottom in 2008 and 2009:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3251493

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 17:51 | 76786 TwoJacks
TwoJacks's picture

Bernie Madoff has got to be crying in his rack right now, and blubbering, "...and they put me in jail for what I did?"

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 17:59 | 76789 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

And I'm sure Bernie is also saying to himself:

"Sonofabitch! If I'd only been able to hang in there for a couple of more months, this new equity bubble would have kept the whole thing going..."

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 18:16 | 76805 deadhead
deadhead's picture

Sonofabitch! If I'd only been able to hang in there for a couple of more months, this new equity bubble would have kept the whole thing going..."

This!!!!!  It must be driving Madoff nuts right now because it is oh so true.

Great comment, one of the best I have seen this week so far.

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 18:22 | 76809 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Bernie couldn't any careless he never traded anyway. That was the whole idea

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 20:48 | 76901 mickey the piker
mickey the piker's picture

"Bernie couldn't any careless he never traded anyway. That was the whole idea"

If you believe that Bernie didn't trade, then I have a prime first lien mortgage to sell you...


Wed, 09/23/2009 - 00:13 | 77050 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

If you believe he's in prison, I have a CDO to sell you.

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 17:52 | 76787 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Isn't this bullish for the dollar as it can blow through 76 on the dyx on its way to 71 then to ....well who knows after that.

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 18:01 | 76793 Dixie Normous
Dixie Normous's picture

Nice analysis, especially interesting going into Fed Speak.

Holy shit though if your bearish analysis is wrong and this breaks out of the 160-170 channel to the upside.

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 18:06 | 76798 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Why the fuck does the credible (one would like to hope) ZeroHedge relate bullshit like "technical analysis"?

Do ZeroHedge also believe in the astrological signs and horoscopes? What about Santa Claus and his elves?

"very clear H&S pattern" and "morning star pattern"?? (Yes, I actually know what H&S means - that's not the problem here)

Can ZeroHedge please relate WHY astrology-level research like this should be taken seriously? Have ZeroHedge or anyone done any half-serious testing, checking out the predictions against the actual outcome?

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 18:12 | 76803 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Zero Hedge presents all information that could be considered relevant by our readers. While we may or may not agree with Nic's thesis, one could easily make the argument that we have gotten to a point where fundamental analysis is the equivalent of horse manure or coffee bean readings in the current market.

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 18:21 | 76807 Raymond Shaw
Raymond Shaw's picture

Technical analysis does have its place.  I have been touting Sterling shorts for quite a while.  Fundamental data not so hot right now with the outright manipulation of statistics (redundant, I know).  Anyway, 'nuff said.

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 19:42 | 76855 Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

Agreed.  Not all technical analysis is bogus.  Some of it is, but not all of it.

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 21:18 | 76929 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

I think patterns are the most legit part of TA, but not all patterns have to be technical.

Wed, 09/23/2009 - 01:45 | 77109 texpat
texpat's picture

Here's an improving fundie. Check the latest week against the trailing average...

http://railfax.transmatch.com/

Wed, 09/23/2009 - 01:41 | 77106 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Got me in last March and out with trailing MCO Stops:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3251493

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 21:15 | 76924 Tripps
Tripps's picture

tyler just NAILED it! What a QUOTE to be remembered!

 

"we have gotten to a point where fundamental analysis is the equivalent of horse manure or coffee bean readings in the current market"

 

the market is so WAY off the fundamentals that everything is backwards. So everyone HAS been following T/A for months now and lo and behold we 20% UP above the nearest respected moving average and all of a sudden T/A doesn't matter, there will be no big pullback, etc. All these PMS, analysts, talking heads, kudlow show wanna-be hosts who show up and PUMP PUMP PUMP their book even though they never even SAW the recession! these people should be BAnned FROM TV....AND YET THERE THEY ARE ON NIGHTLY

Wed, 09/23/2009 - 01:42 | 77107 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Greater fool theory always takes over at tops...

Wed, 09/23/2009 - 07:12 | 77175 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

(me again, thanks for replying)

But I have to disagree: You obviously don't present all information that could be considered relevant - you pass the heap of thoughts out there through your personal subjective sieve, and then we get the result. Which is that the world is at the end of a cliff, and there's an abyss in front of us.

There's one thing I would like you to do some serious, ongoing commenting on - I would seriously appreciate it, as would probably other readers of your blog.

= Why do (some) people disagree with you? :-)

And no, I'm not talking about the HFT algos and quants (although I would love to see any quantification of how right you are on these assumptions).

I'm talking about e.g. the apparent perma-bulls over at Bespoke Investment Group (http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/) and their like minded.

What would be enlightening to us mere mortals in this game, is a thorough analysis of their arguments and why they are flawed, and why you are right. (Granted, Bespoke are TA folks or whatever. But I guess you get my point).

The other way around would also do very good - that the Bespoke-guys took all your doom and gloom and tore it to pieces.

This would be good in several senses, as both the other-sided arguments would be studied harder by folks in the know, but also a sort of competition in the real backing up of ones own arguments would probably ensue.

So here goes, Tyler: You start - tell me why Bespoke (or any other bullish entity) is completely off their heads!

THE REASON for this longing, is that SO FAR, you seems to have the best and most thorough arguments - but Bespoke has been right.

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 19:18 | 76835 Thurgy
Thurgy's picture

@Anonymous #76798 : Is that you Kneale?

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 22:03 | 76964 long-shorty
long-shorty's picture

Anonymous,

Would you prefer ZH limit itself to articles about Vanguard and DFA? i can't figure out why i keep making so much money on breakouts when technical analysis doesn't work and stock prices demonstrate a random normal or log-normal pattern of return. oh wait... THEY DON'T!

Nothing wrong with technical analysis, though one thing wrong with this article is that the right shoulder in a H&S should not be taller than the left shoulder. The big picture pattern I see here is a cup and handle, which is likely to resolve itself by moving to the upside.

The vast majority of research, either technical or fundamental, that is of predictive value, is not going to be on ZH, CNBC, or elsewhere, because it's proprietary. If you have something and you believe it works, you don't talk about it or you say just enough to get client $, you don't go and publish in a journal.

 

Wed, 09/23/2009 - 06:55 | 77174 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

(me again!) (not Kneale!) Your last paragraph is obviously something to keep in mind, always. I've always wondered about the whole concept and system of investment banks, -research, -advisors and the like: If they have something that really works; why not instead take their own money and put in it, obviously leveraged oo:1, SINCE IT WORKS??

Are they altruistic? Just being nice?

The only way to resolve this sanely, is to boil it down to the actual argument: "Heads I win, Tails you loose": you take the risk - we share the reward. Thus, an advisor can give as shit advice, or risky advice, as he wants (or can pass through the law): He sits risk free.

But, long-shorty, you obviously sit on some gold knowledge: Care to share a little? :-)

Wed, 09/23/2009 - 01:39 | 77104 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Then consider the COTs which are up to
68.4% long and 29.7% short the dollar open interest...

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 18:24 | 76810 Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

Ummm...what happened to the thesis of "the dollar is immediately going to reverse and become the king of all toilet papers"?

"you can try investing in relative value between the two biggest printers of cash: the US and the UK"

No thank you. I'd rather invest in the ultimate hard currency of Gold rather than any toilet-paper currency.

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 19:15 | 76820 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Oh come on don't get all fussy about the love between continents and islands. You  might like it. This is what they listen to when they do the carry trades at night. It's hot libor love. Do me in the accounts payable or recievable or wherever. LOL

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zHVW7Zy_vg&feature=related

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 20:37 | 76891 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

If I were you I would seriously bail out. September comes and the balloon crew pulls another miracle rabbit out of their magic hat.

Pull the fire alarm if you must cause a distraction but bail out of the longs.

--Driefontein

Wed, 09/23/2009 - 04:08 | 77149 Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

I am only long Gold right now. Zero longs in everything else, but not short either.

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 18:55 | 76826 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

And what happens if the Chinese are running their printing presses 24/7?

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 19:28 | 76836 Thurgy
Thurgy's picture

I deduce they will run of out ink which will temporarily force a correction in the copper market because the pig farmers have no additional buying power.

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 19:40 | 76853 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jul/23/zimbabwe

Soldiers await pay as Zimbabwe runs out of paper to print money
Tue, 09/22/2009 - 19:50 | 76860 Thurgy
Thurgy's picture

The next problem Zimbabwe will have is converting to scientific notation on their bills.

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 22:15 | 76975 aldousd
aldousd's picture

They actually cranked it back 10 digits all at once, and did a reverse split. of 10^10 to 1. Fancy that, and they were back where they started 6 months later.( I don't know the exact time frame, don't quote me on the 6 months.)

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 20:48 | 76902 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

LOL they have to pay software licenses to print the bank notes. OMG what a world.

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 21:16 | 76925 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

That is when you know: Zimbabwe can't print more money because they can't pay the German printing press to come out with a design for a higher denomination with the money they have printed previously.

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 21:27 | 76940 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

"Zimbabweans were limited to withdrawing just $100bn a day from their bank accounts, enough to buy less than half a loaf of bread, although the government had just increased the allowance to $1.5tn a day for members of the military."  Wow is all I can say! 

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 21:37 | 76945 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

You can also say that the smart Zimbabwean government officials have read their history books: it goes guns and butter not butter and guns. You've got to work your way up the curve.

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 21:41 | 76947 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

Its just amazing Tumbling Dice to think how devalued their currency is... yet there remains a Zimbabwean government...

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 22:21 | 76966 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

Someone has to hold on to the AKs...plus I think that the people might even realize that the true source of oppression is the IMF and the Fed and not the government. In their case the government is simply incompetent, and not completely evil. They just printed money without creating debt and thats a big no-no for the "market".

Then again it most likely has to do with the fact that the effective range that the 9mm pistol the farmer has is about 5 times less than the AKs the uniformed dudes are holding, and theres more of them and they get paid about 15 times more than the farmer so theyre more nourished since they're the ones that buy up the farmer's food.

Wed, 09/23/2009 - 04:10 | 77150 Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

Bingo.

Wed, 09/23/2009 - 08:59 | 77215 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

War is the answer for the Zimbabwean difficulty.

If they lose, the victor inherits their mess.

If they win, they get to eat the loser.

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 19:51 | 76861 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

what do you mean "if"? We are, so they must...they've pegged the yuan to the greenback.

The only difference is that they are buying hard assets with theirs and we are using ours to fill holes in broken banks.

The currency system collapses when China's lending bubble pops or the rest of the world cries uncle as China buys up all their productive assets.

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 21:00 | 76843 Gilgamesh
Gilgamesh's picture

GOOD NIGHT IRENE!  (caps intentional)

 

Take a look at the USD right now.

 

Edit:  Look away; was a stop spike in the USD/JPY under 91 and spilled over to all others vs. USD to take it sub 76 (and sub 75.89).  Stair-stepped retracement has completed, and actually overshot previous levels.  Heck of a move, though.  Anything 15-min or less bars will show it.

Wed, 09/23/2009 - 01:47 | 77111 texpat
texpat's picture

You just aggravated my 'nervous rectum'.

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 19:42 | 76854 Thurgy
Thurgy's picture

Bernanke hates me

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 20:29 | 76886 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Fascinating analysis except the only reason sterling keeps dipping is that the governor of the central bank keeps talking it down with phony threats of more quantitative easing and negative interest rates for a decade. And then it rises up again a few days later. Once the governor's credibility gets used up, and inflation stays firmly in its box amid the UK's raging thrift paradox, and GDP rises next quarter back into positive growth, and the post election fiscal balancing gets closer - then sterling could recover quite strongly.

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 21:11 | 76920 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I understand Gold, I understand oil, I even understand BRL/AUD/CAD but can someone please explain to me EUR? What is so anti-dollar about EUR? I see that their balance sheet grew by a smaller amount than The Fed Balance Sheet but it did so by buying (often via triangulation with European private banks) the lowest quality crap out there. Say what you want about UST's and FNM/FRE MBS but Spanish commercial loans and Irish NAMA crap are much more dubious credits.

Wed, 09/23/2009 - 08:25 | 77203 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

This might come as a bit of a surprise to a lot of you...Hell, when I told our head dealer this little fact a few months back, not even he knew this (and he's an old timer FX institutional broker in london), So, here goes:

the EURO is PARTIALLY BACKED BY GOLD !! !!

Yes, you read that right folks! - Do some research, I admit it is a very scarcely known fact (probably for a good reason), but according to the applicable treaties, the Euro must be back (somewhere between) 15-22% by physical Gold!

Now i've been on here for months and never seen commentary to this effect and have been contemplating an email to the good folks at ZH to bring this to thier attention with supporting european directive provisions, just havent got round to it yet..stay tuned.

Believe it.

ZJ

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 21:13 | 76921 Yossarian
Yossarian's picture

I understand Gold, I understand oil, I even understand BRL/AUD/CAD but can someone please explain to me EUR? What is so anti-dollar about EUR? I see that their balance sheet grew by a smaller amount than The Fed Balance Sheet but it did so by buying (often via triangulation with European private banks) the lowest quality crap out there. Say what you want about UST's and FNM/FRE MBS but Spanish commercial loans and Irish NAMA crap are much more dubious credits.

Wed, 09/23/2009 - 08:41 | 77151 Gunther
Gunther's picture

Yossarian,

let me try an answer.
A good part of the Euro is Germany's Mark and the German Bundesbank. In Germany are still some people remembering the inflation of 1923. That makes the Bundesbank and to a somewhat lesser degree the ECB an inflation hawk.  In one of the baltic countries (sorry, without looking them up I mix them all the time) they get deflationary treatment right now with lower wages, cutting public spending and keeping nominal debt levels. Compared to Western standards they were poor before,  I do not want to imagine how they are doing now.
Ireland is cutting public salaries too.

On the other side is the ECB's buying of crap.

Wed, 09/23/2009 - 11:19 | 77283 Yossarian
Yossarian's picture

That is reasonable but I think this perception may be too strongly held and does not mesh well with the reality, which is that The ECB balance sheet also exploded.  Also note, while the Federal government is spending like drunker sailor, the states are being forced to cut so perhaps net/net the difference between the US and Euroland isn't so great. 

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 21:20 | 76931 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Long term, I'm bearish on the dollar. Here's why: http://www.polyopinions.com/2009/09/fiscal-sustainability-of-us.html

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 22:05 | 76965 Yossarian
Yossarian's picture

That is a concise, intelligent assessment but how is that outlook much different than many EU nations?  Again, I am not asking why $ is weakening, I am asking why it is weakening versus the Euro and I still don't quite understand the Euro fetish.  

Wed, 09/23/2009 - 06:04 | 77164 jm
jm's picture

IMHO, consensus believes the Euro is shepherded by wonks who are willing to permit more deflation than any other central bank.  Note poor Ireland.  This makes Euro-denominated sovereign debt very attractive relative to the dollar. 

This trumps the improving US C/A.  Fundamentally, everybody is screwed, so fundamentals don't make as much difference.

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 21:51 | 76954 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

Ok, let's say the excrement finally hits the fan and the markets around the world tank and risk aversion takes over.  USD briefly rallies as safe haven and on demand as people liquidate their positions.  Where do you move those dollars before they are again beaten down? Gold? Commodity Currencies? Swiss Franc? Back into equities? Ammo? Tuna? 

 

Just trying to think it out.

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 23:08 | 77003 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

The next distruption in confidence might take down the dollar with it, since the institutions connected with the dollar's foundation (the gov and fed) are so intwinded in equities and credit markets, which are the places where such a distruption would most likely to occur.

I would go with land, seeds, water distiller, guns, ammo, alcohol and cigarettes and pm's as the investments to make for the next time the SHFT. Definitely not the Franc. I don't remember where I read it but it made sense to me: the franc is sort of like a call option on the financial industry. Switzerland is the epicenter of it all and their currency has value as a hedge for financial disturbances only at a time when these are not systemic.

Even if you are not banking on an TEOTWAWKI scenario those investments still make sense as the uncertainty surrounding this house of cards will increase at every bold new step, and just like now, the prices for these things should keep going up.

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 22:12 | 76969 CD
CD's picture

Steven Pearlstein at the Washington Post has started reading ZH (at a minimum):

A New Bubble Of the Fed's Creation

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/22/AR2009092203737.html?hpid=news-col-blog

Also, TD -- iStockAnalyst still has the old blogspot address for ZH:

http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/3493214

 

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 23:04 | 77001 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I've been shorting the dollar, via the FX market, using the CHF and GBP for a few years trusting that the dollar was going to become the toilet of all currencies. What I'm beginning to think differently is that all the other major traded currencies will also be monitizing to keep pace with the US dollar. I think the exception may be the Japanese. So in other words, what will the real price of the US dollar be in comparison to the British Pound 1 or 2 years in the future. It doesn't really matter that the dollar becomes worthless just so that all the other currencies become worthless at the same time. (if your shorting them that is.) So what country out there can afford to have their currencies gain dramatically in value versus the US dollar? The answer is none of them. Everyone's looking for parity in the long run. Economic world order seems to be the catch phrase of the day which starts first with stable currency prices. Volatility is great - but just not to much volatility.

Wed, 09/23/2009 - 10:25 | 77256 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Of course the rest of the world is going to follow us down the rabbit hole. You need to buy gold as the best dollar short. You've selected two currencies (GBP and CHF) where central banks have already committed to quantitative easing. At least short the USD against the EUR...a poster above stated it correctly...the German's should restrain the EU...at least relative to the rest of the mad money printers.

Tue, 09/22/2009 - 23:42 | 77028 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

DX will continue to dislocate from equities tonight. The plan is working. Get out whilst you can.

Wed, 09/23/2009 - 01:06 | 77082 AmenRa
AmenRa's picture

USD broke through 76 in after hours trading. This is going to be similar to going over the edge of a cliff. Then you find out that the green shoots in the cliff face are dead twigs and that there is nothing to stop the fall.

 

Wed, 09/23/2009 - 01:45 | 77110 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Never trust after hour trading, designed to run stops...

Wed, 09/23/2009 - 02:28 | 77128 Econocataclysm
Econocataclysm's picture

I'm just now getting into forex trading, but let me tell you I wouldn't bet shit on this pair.

That having been said, my big winner right now is the AUS/USD carry trade!!!

You've got two majors, one at .25% and the other at 3.0% (I've closed all my positions in anticipation of what the Fed says tomorrow, but I'm just seriously risk-averse. Don't bet the farm that Bernanke will recall the helicopters any time soon because he's trying to reflate real estate in nominal terms with a weak dollar and he hasn't really gotten anywhere with that yet - simple demand destruction coupled with deflation in domestic currency stocks is trumping inflation at the moment.) The U.S. has shitty fundamentals, including massively negative GDP growth, unsupportable wars, etc. Austrailia has actually GROWN it's GDP through the crisis, albeit modestly. They run a small national debt ON PURPOSE and have only tens of billions of trade deficit. Plus, you get PAID OUT on the difference in interest rates when you do a rollover AND the fact that both currencies are majors means most houses will let you use lots and lots of LEVERAGE. Shorting the greenback into the aussie as a carry trade is SEXY AS SHIT right now. About the only thing I would use the GBP for would be as the butt of a AUS/GBP carry, but I'm really looking to help Bernanke destroy America AND the BoE is holding .5%, so the dollar carry trade is a absolutely a bit sexier.

More helicopters, Ben!!! Get it down to .1% like Japan and Obama gets MY vote lolz!!! You're making me a FORTUNE!!!

I'll post some stuff over at my blog once I have some more trading results on that, and let's see what helicopter boy does tomorrow. Plus, part of my strategy is sinking the profits into gold as fast as I can to hedge against the helicopters lolz!!!

Wed, 09/23/2009 - 07:38 | 77186 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

maybe you can use some of that big money that you are earning to actually pay for some advertising.

Wed, 09/23/2009 - 03:37 | 77145 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The banksters are a form of the Mafia, and they should be dealt with harshly, after they destroy the U.S. dollar and GB pound. I support creating large guillotine execution centers, and new legal rules for the holding of summary trials. Most of the heads of the big banks as well as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Secretary of Treasury, Chancellor of Exchequer, and so on would be able to discuss finance, and remember their lobster & filet mignon dinners, as well as what they did to destroy the rest of us, as they sit in collective holding pens with common toilets, just prior to their execution.

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