Durable Goods Increase by 1.9% (Exp 1.5%), Core Up 0.6%, Below Consensus 0.9%, Second Q1 GDP Revision As Expected

Tyler Durden's picture

Data dump from today's two economic releases:

•    US GDP (Annualised) Q/Q (Q1 T) 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.8%)
•    US GDP Price Index Q/Q (Q1 T) 2.0% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.9%)
•    US Personal Consumption Q/Q (Q1 T) 2.2% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 2.2%)
•    US PCE Core Q/Q (Q1 T) 1.6% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 1.4%)
•    US Durable Goods Orders (May) M/M 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. -3.6% Rev. to -2.7%)
•    US Durables ex Transportation (May) M/M 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. -1.5% Rev. to -0.4%)
•    US Nondef ex Air (May) M/M 1.6% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. -2.6% Rev. to -0.8%)

Good and bad news from the May durable goods data, where as expected transportation contributed the major portion, with the total number coming at 1.9% on expectations of 1.5%, up from an upward revised -2.7% (previously -3.6%). However, take out transportation and the change was only 0.6%, below consensus of 0.9%. From the release: "Transportation equipment, also up two of the last three months, had the largest increase, $2.7 billion or 5.8 percent to $49.6 billion. This was due to nondefense aircraft and parts which increased $2.7 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in May, up five of the last six months, increased $0.6 billion or 0.3 percent to $194.6 billion. This followed a 1.4 percent April decrease. Machinery, up three of the last four months, had the largest increase, $0.5 billion or 2.0 percent to $28.3 billion." The surprise was a jump in machinery orders which had a 3.4% rise in May, to $108.7 billion: "This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 3.7 percent April increase." Another all time record comes from a good old standby: inventories: "Inventories of manufactured durable goods in May, up seventeen consecutive months, increased $4.1 billion or 1.2 percent to $355.4 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 1.2 percent April increase." Elsewhere, the final Q1 GDP revision came as expected at 1.9%. The change in Q1 GDP components over the three revisios and compared to the final Q4 GDP is shown below: