Durable Goods Increase by 1.9% (Exp 1.5%), Core Up 0.6%, Below Consensus 0.9%, Second Q1 GDP Revision As Expected

Tyler Durden's picture

Data dump from today's two economic releases:

•    US GDP (Annualised) Q/Q (Q1 T) 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.8%)
•    US GDP Price Index Q/Q (Q1 T) 2.0% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.9%)
•    US Personal Consumption Q/Q (Q1 T) 2.2% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 2.2%)
•    US PCE Core Q/Q (Q1 T) 1.6% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 1.4%)
•    US Durable Goods Orders (May) M/M 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. -3.6% Rev. to -2.7%)
•    US Durables ex Transportation (May) M/M 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. -1.5% Rev. to -0.4%)
•    US Nondef ex Air (May) M/M 1.6% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. -2.6% Rev. to -0.8%)

Good and bad news from the May durable goods data, where as expected transportation contributed the major portion, with the total number coming at 1.9% on expectations of 1.5%, up from an upward revised -2.7% (previously -3.6%). However, take out transportation and the change was only 0.6%, below consensus of 0.9%. From the release: "Transportation equipment, also up two of the last three months, had the largest increase, $2.7 billion or 5.8 percent to $49.6 billion. This was due to nondefense aircraft and parts which increased $2.7 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in May, up five of the last six months, increased $0.6 billion or 0.3 percent to $194.6 billion. This followed a 1.4 percent April decrease. Machinery, up three of the last four months, had the largest increase, $0.5 billion or 2.0 percent to $28.3 billion." The surprise was a jump in machinery orders which had a 3.4% rise in May, to $108.7 billion: "This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 3.7 percent April increase." Another all time record comes from a good old standby: inventories: "Inventories of manufactured durable goods in May, up seventeen consecutive months, increased $4.1 billion or 1.2 percent to $355.4 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 1.2 percent April increase." Elsewhere, the final Q1 GDP revision came as expected at 1.9%. The change in Q1 GDP components over the three revisios and compared to the final Q4 GDP is shown below:

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iNull's picture

Hey, at least the cardboard box that the microwave was shipped in was made in the good ole U.S.A.

firstdivision's picture

Holy crap did exports and fixed investment get crushed in each revision.

Atomizer's picture


    • Figures on new and unfilled orders exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing.
    • Figures in text are adjusted for seasonality but not for inflation.




the not so mighty maximiza's picture

All problems were fixed yesterday, this is the real summer of recovery.

TheTmfreak's picture

Reminds me of the summer of George, and well we found out how well that went.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture


I understand that we are forced to use the Ponzi's manipulated numbers if we are to discuss the farce that is the government and its enablers. But isn't it about time for a guest post by John Williams of Shadowstats.com on the true economic numbers?


101 years and counting's picture

nothing's fixed. as long as bernanke is not printing money, i'm short.

Greeny's picture

Bernanke not printing money? Sounds like a joke, man.

He's printing as I type this, otherwise Dollar pyramid would

collapse. Too far out, nothing left, but printing.

Re-Discovery's picture

Bankers and High Net Worth flying wealth out of the country before the next meltdown.

Caviar Emptor's picture

GDP couldn't even cut 2% in what was billed as a "RoBUST" first quarter (January effect, remember?).

Man that's wimpy.

Well at least bailed out Wall Streeters are still flush with cash and buying....German cars, Italian suits, French wines, Brazilian hookers, Asian electronics, and villas on the Cote D'Azur

ThirdCoastSurfer's picture

Up 1.9% from a down -2.7% for a -.8 net while we throw everything including the dollar to reverse it and Ben can't figure out why???

"If you are thinking of buying new vehicles, equipment, machinery, phones, computers or other technology for your business, 2011 could be the year to do it. That’s because not one, but two laws passed late last year have greatly increased the amount of your immediate tax write-off for making such purchases"


Stuck on Zero's picture

Undeclared inflation makes all the numbers look better.

SheepDog-One's picture

Total manipulation of all data sure does make the numbers look rosy, we're in a depression obviously, but day to day fudging of numbers makes it more palatable.

eurusdog's picture

As a tiny side article, this title just appeared on cnbc "US May Face European Style Debt Crisis" Here is the link, http://www.cnbc.com/id/43503960 It's about time!

tarsubil's picture

Just rehashing the CBO's stance that we need to raise taxes and cut benefits for Medicare. That isn't going to solve the problem anymore than printing money.

OS2010's picture

I agree that (the invisible) inflation keeps bumping up the numbers. 

Certainly the bookkeeping changes could cause some of the increase in equipment purchases.  Could another reason be to improve efficiency, to push off having to hire employees?