Durable Goods Massacre: Plunge To -3.3% From A Revised 5.0% On Expectations Of 0.1%, Inventories Grow For 10 Consecutive Months

Tyler Durden's picture

And so the downward Q4 GDP revisions begin. "New orders for manufactured durable goods in October decreased $6.8 billion or 3.3 percent to $196.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down two of the last three months, followed a 5.0 percent September increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 2.7 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 2.1 percent." Expectations were for print of 0.1%, with the main culprit for the unexpectedly bad miss being transportation: "Transportation equipment, also down two of the last three months, had the largest decrease, $2.9 billion or 5.2 percent to $52.3 billion. This was led by defense aircraft and parts, which decreased $1.6 billion." Most importantly, new orders declined in every single tracked category. Elsewhere the magic that is artificial growth by inventory restocking, now in its 10th consecutive month, continues: "Inventories of manufactured durable goods in October, up ten consecutive months, increased $1.3 billion or 0.4 percent to $316.7 billion. This followed a 0.7 percent September increase." When the liquidation begins watch out below. Of course, stockpilers will by then be able to sell it to the Fed's QE X.Y bid. While the data will be ultimately good for the final revision for Q3 GDP, it starts Q4 GDP with whimper, just as expected. And should the inventory contraction finally begin, watch out for the November and December data.

Other notable order plunges were the following:

  • Machinery: -3.9%
  • Business investment: -4.5%
  • Computers and electronic products: -7.7%
  • Communications equipment: -12.3%
  • Defense aircraft and parts: -25.1%

There is no economic growth that can be achieved with a plunge across key categories like those above.

Full report.


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Manipulism's picture

Is this good news?


scatterbrains's picture

It's great news, it means the sack will be hitting the turbo boost

High Plains Drifter's picture

Yes , according to Harry, this is great news.

kinetik's picture

Funny, he lept to my mind as quickly as it did yours.

Scary numbers, 10 months in a row? When is too much inventory, at least dishwashers don't go bad like apples.

High Plains Drifter's picture

Where is Mr Wanger this morning. We would like to slap him around a bit...:)



RockyRacoon's picture

He's hangin' out with Johnny Bravo in Mom's basement.  They have a paper route and pizza delivery business that they are tag-teaming.

asteroids's picture

It's obvious the FED and government are keeping two sets of books when it comes to important economic and fiscal data. They feed the cheery "truth" to the masses and keep the gritty reality for themselves.

SipOnSodapop's picture

sometimes i think the numbers are manipulated

Dr. Engali's picture

No...numbers manipulated. Certainly not from the department of truth.

cossack55's picture

Only because you have a brain.

Dr. Engali's picture

Should be good for about 100 points on the dow.

SheepDog-One's picture

Total confirmation of USA grind to a halt...China and Rusia abandon dollar trade...great reason for futures to be solid green!

Manipulism's picture

Argentina seeks help from the IMF to calculate the inflation numbers.



John McCloy's picture

I'm thinking this durable disaster will have us red by days end. It is going to be a svelte Christmas if this is the best billions of cash supposedly sloshing around can drum up after all this time.

SheepDog-One's picture

Yea John what more proof does anyone need of Bernankes mad experiment being a confirmed total failure? What does it take to get this clown fired, China and Russia abandoning the US Dollar? OH WAIT that just happened too!

1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

Wait till all that non existent "Pent up Demand" never materializes. As millions of people run out of UE. The cold hard reality, will soon be painfully obvious to even the kool-aid goggle crowd...

etrader's picture

I'm waiting for CNBC to start News Flashing .....(.)(.)

With the Large  Monthly Equity Fund Outflows, Black friday & forward Hoilday sales are expected to set new records, due to unprecedented amounts of cash on the side lines.

etrader's picture

Was think along the lines of Ms Drury headlining rather than MCC ;-]

Oh regional Indian's picture

Isn't this a lagging indicator? Probably implies that retailers are fully stocked for what they surely know will be a shitter of a retail season.

Though the McMasses could prove me and them wrong.

I wonder when Orwellian DOublespeakers will finally call some things for what they are:

Offense Aircraft and Parts... and may their tribe plunge!



cossack55's picture

ORI, it is only offensive outside the US, inside, it is defensive against the taxpayers. 

Oh regional Indian's picture

Oooh Cossack, that is clever/sad.


Sudden Debt's picture

Been saying this for over a month.

And believe me, it's getting worse.

SheepDog-One's picture

WOW good enough for a 70 pop on the futures though!

the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Green shoot, summer of recovery BS


Saxxon's picture

The perversity of this market is a natural perversity . . . like watching my hens eat leftover Kung Pao Chicken . . . this can't end well and our political leaders bear full blame.

PolishHammer's picture

CNBC' B-CUP asked to send them your "recovery stories." If you see signs of recovery around you send them in and they will put them on air if they like them.


This is for real.

SheepDog-One's picture

OK I sent in my evidence of recovery to Erin B-cup-- I just noticed all the neighborhood wives are charging a bit more for blowjobs on Craigs List. Only .50 cents avg but hey...green shoots!

cosmictrainwreck's picture

leave it to you, Sheep.....you get the prize. I'll take the short side of the bet they don't publish

Bob's picture

Pure Orwell meets Rockwell. 

Caviar Emptor's picture

The key word here is "Durable", secretly not something our leaders want to encourage.  

This is a quick fix economy. We don't do 'Durable' anymore!

One solution to fix the economy and the numbers is to begin an all out ban on 'Durable Goods' to be replaced with 'Disposable Goods'. That's what we should be measuring: items with a useful lifespan of under 3 months. Cause that's what makes this great economy great: short attention spans, short memories and planned obsolescence! Make 'em replace their electronic toys every 3 months and we can spend our way back to prosperity!

SheepDog-One's picture

I dont get what it takes to get 'the economic team' fired...much less reigned in or even questioned! I spell a couple words wrong on a report, I'm getting the serious sideways look! Bernanke and Timmah implode the country...NAH cant even mention theyre incompetent clowns!

Caviar Emptor's picture

Yeah but they do some serious sucking action down on the Street to make up

MarketTruth's picture
  • Defense aircraft and parts: -25.1%
  • EASY fix... just start another war.

    CH1's picture

    EXACTLY what 'cyber-terrorism' is for!


    lbrecken's picture

    My cousin owns  a sock company and as a result of yarn prices going up 40% he is stock piling inventory ahead of the increase coming 1/1.  I bet this is driving the "good" econ stats and inv. build.

    chistletoe's picture

    Its obvious, if you think about it ....


    pretty mucj, everybody already has

    all of the soup, dried beans, and tuna fish

    (durable goods) that they have room for under the eaves ...

    wiskeyrunner's picture

    Straight up or straight down....then sideways for 6 hours...same ole thing over and over. Seems everyone but main street knew the economic numbers. Inisder trading, is the Federal Reserve guilty of insider trading?

    SheepDog-One's picture

    Yea it really is a total BS market, it opens up or down, where it stays all day. There is no trading because no one is in the markets theyve destroyed it with their manipulation and 28 straight weeks of equity outflows dont lie. At this point, Wall St owns Wall St, let them keep it.

    AccreditedEYE's picture

    When you become the market for several asset classes, you are the living embodiment of insider trading. lol

    SheepDog-One's picture

    Funny part is the CNBC is looking at inventory builds and concluding a big Christmas sales season? Talk about jumping the shark.

    1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

    My shopping is complete, silver rounds all around.

    Problem Is's picture

    Alright! Major Green Shoot!
    Summers is vindicated, "Mission Accomplished" for Obummer-nomics, and for all you nay sayers:

    Shovelling $$Trillions into criminal TBTF insolvent Wall Street banks is a win-win if you just suspend those accounting rules...

    cosmictrainwreck's picture

    just a side comment to all ya'll always talking about the "sheeple": even the truck drivers that deliver to my dock KNOW that all the GS execs - including one Mr. Hank (the Yank) Paulson - deserve a lynchin'

    wiskeyrunner's picture

    Sell off what sell off, PRESTO the magic futures can cure everything.