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Durable Goods Miss Consensus As Nondefense Shipments Plunge 40.2%, Ex-Transporation Beat Expectations
August Durable Goods come all over the place - total number is a major miss to expectations, but stripping away transportation and aircraft, these beat. As expected, the market will cherry pick what it likes and surges on the news.
- US Durable Goods Orders (Aug) M/M -1.3% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.3%, Rev. to 0.7)
- Durable ex. Transportation (Aug) M/M 2.0% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. -3.8%, Rev. to -2.8)
- Non-def Cap ex. Aircraft (Aug) M/M 4.1% Exp. 3.0% (Prev. -7.2%, Rev. to -5.3)
Perhaps someone should point out to Boeing and all US defense companies that Nondefense aircraft and parts shipments and new orders plunge by -13.5% and -40.2% in August.
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Futures literally jump through the roof on the report.
I quit.
You didn't take your blue pills today haven't you?
+1
I don't know when the market returns to sanity. Rallying on most of the news that has been coming out is delusional. The market explodes on a infinitesimal increase in government statistics that are only positive when viewed from depressionary levels. I quit...
One thing is for sure, none of us will be able to make any money off of it. Those who are "in the know" will make a fortune when this sucker goes down, and they will know exactly when it's going to happen.
Must not own any gold.
Trying to short anything in terms of dollars is a fool's errand in this QE-ruled environment.
i feel it too brother....time....time....this is a broadway show. They have to keep the charade going.
meanwhile, thousands gather pre-dawn in NC for free food.
Dicotemy anyone?
Oh, you really thought fundamentals drive the markets these days? Didn't you know the computers are smarter than you? You shudn't be in this market, this market is for fools.
99% fools losing money
1% computers taking money from the fools
If you're not trading with a bong on your desk, you're not really trading.
excluding aircraft, this seems like a pretty good rebound. Basically the vast majority of weakness came from non defense aircraft and parts...computers and related products new orders were up 12% seasonally adjusted m/m and computers and electronics parts were up nicely, they are a much larger piece of the pie than nondefense aircraft.
Overall i think this wasn't a great report, its expectedly weak but its not terribly weak. its slowly weak.
We make for the top of the flash crash.... we should never have shorted here...
Why quit when you can join them?
Again, as far as tha market is concerned, ZH is on the wrong side of the fence. I read Bloomberg, CNBC and Yahoo and their headlines reflect what the market is indicating; this is good news (actually great news) for equities.
Throw in a good dose of POMO funding and I would think the ZH folks should forget about the end of the world and S&P 600 and start making some money when this market goes up, and up and up.
The market is sane; those who fight it are the insane.
And by the way, no matter how many articles ZH might post about the failure of the federal reserve, if they are attempting to prop up all risk assests then they have been a resounding success.
Look, things are not all that bad out there. Most people are working, spending and getting on with their lives. Our culture will change and we may not dominate the world forever, but things are still very good for us in the US of A.
Lighten up. Find the good where you can find it. Make money where you can in this market.
But most of all; DO NOT FIGHT THE FED!
Every once in awhile I read something so insane, that all I can do is smile. Today that little piece if insanity comes via you. Thank you for bringing a smile to my face. Let's just forget that 20 trillion dollar debt, those 5 million homes underwater and that 90 trillion coming due and payable. Your remarks are absolutely fantastic. You get today's blue ribbon!
I can appreciate your position and understand that I shall be the source of ridicule for my statements.
I do not discount the $$ in debt nor do I discount the various drags on this economy.
I am not here to say that this economy is "good". I am here to say, that in terms of this market, the fed is pumping and it is working. Ride with the fed, don't push back on the bus.
In terms of life? Well, except for a vote, I have no realistic controll of $$ debt nor an underwater housing market nor the moral hazards being played out daily by CB intereference and bailouts. But I can look around, make a little money and enjoy the beauty and freedom of where I am fortunate enough to live.
I am a regular reader of this site. I am in agreement that things are not as rosey as the MSM would have us believe. But I choose to trade with the fed, not against them and that will include the short side when the time comes (I am actually short some positions now - getting hammered).
ZH has well defined the current market situation. CB manitpuations, record correlations, POMO effect; am I the only one here that seeks to profit off of this knowledge? You must trade what you see is happening, not what you want to happen. You cannot trade the ZH philosophy, but this site is an invaluable tool to understanding where the market is likely to go.
Best to all of you, but I am too weak to fight this fed.
I see the pills are working. Good.
Only caffine, but even that helps.
Up 175. Maybe it shouldn't be but it is. How can a market be insane? CAT is at another 52 week high. Should it "be there"? I have no idea but that is where it is. I will live with that reality and will live with the reality of a fall when and if it comes.
And I will need no pills for that.
Best to you and yours.
Sir, I trade this market. And I don't allow myself to take principled stands. I go where the market takes me. That doesn't mean I should take a "whatever" attitude with the wholesale destruction of my country. People are being fucked by other people who are in power and enabled by still other people who are psychopaths.
I think this is what pisses people off more than any other thing, the attitude that "hey, take while the taking is good" is all you should bring to the table, along with your lunch money. The looting of Rome by it's own people is what pisses off people.
BTW don't ever mistake a bearish attitude with a trading stance. I can be as negative as the next guy and still ride the rocket to the moon, as I'm doing now. Or did until I pulled the plug 20 minutes ago.
Massive short squeeze! Those who went short overnight are being carried out in body bags. God bless the HFTs!
Market-Watch Headline
Pretty much speaks to the larger disconnect between reality and the stock markets.
Legendary headline.
Rats. They changed it before I could PDF it. It is another legendary headline though. Sort of like
"Man kills 7 driving recklessly; Registers Blood/alcohol level of 0.19. Drinking not believed to be a factor"
pretty much speaks to someone not readng beyond the headline, or understanding market psychology
VW beetle
Nice to see you around again. And you're right, I know nothing at all about market psychology. When is your next class starting? Are you once again paying people to attend?
New age way of looking at better than analyst expected.
Market was set to be up 100 points at open. Why would data matter?
Yup. Up 1.5% today. The blowoff top continues.
I think they will push to 1150 at all costs. No volume but they have their technical rally. God help them when this sucker corrects.
This is probably blow out all the shorts again before reversing, lol.
Exactly...another 1.5% ramp on "near death" volume...shaking out the weak short hands once again.
Perhaps someone should point out to Boeing and all US defense companies that Nondefense aircraft and parts shipments and new orders plunge by -13.5% and -40.2% in August.
Only the beginning of the pain for US defense contractors. What's coming for them over the forseeable future is going to make the 70's look like, well, the 80's.
- does this mean that we will be getting some real music soon?
Sorry Rusty, I'm in the "DISCO SUCKS!" camp.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvQ8sUbgA2c
No Disco here either.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlq0lYB3iSM
Futures literally on fire now...
WHAT....A....FUCKING....JOKE.
Look at Japan, they are nukeing their currency and it still goes up.
The worse it all gets, the better it looks.
"The worse it all gets, the better it looks"
+100...I love that one.
Yeah, when the yen trade reverses the yen will go to toilet paper status as speculators jump ship. Bank on it!
Got to reclaim 1130 on the S&P immediately so nobody (or no machine) gets spooked. Might fade into the close. Futures too far too fast. Like those hill-climbing motorcycles, also idiotic.
Why is this a joke? I really don't get it.
Somewhere, someone is willing to pay the ask, even as it increases, even if that someone is the CB. What about this fact makes the increasing value of equities a joke?
It is as if ZH has convinced you guys that all things economic are in collapse, or should be in collapse.
It doesn't matter what ZH things of the data; no one here can trade ZH. It matters only what the market thinks and it is speaking loud and clear on the matter.
I will not be surprised when, at some point in the future as an improving economy is met with a retreating market, that the daily drumbeat at ZH will be the reverse image of what is published today. You will all claim the market is insane, it should be climbing on this great news, etc,etc.
ZH seems to be so far out of synch with the markets. You may be right one day soon, but for now, anyone trading with ZH as a guide is dead broke.
Oh vey - another preaching by the bulltard professor. WE GET IT for the umpteenth time. Especially when you say something retarded as "ZH seems to be so far out of synch with the markets." Since when did you bulltards know when the HAL9000s were going to pump up the market on lousy news like this morning?.. like they have the past 2 years?
Actually, Mr. Simpson, we have know for quite some time as ZH has forwarned us with the POMO information. ZH was even kind enough to give us dates, times and post-activity, the CUSIPS.
I am not a bulltard; I am a realist. When the powers that be decide they will no longer prop up this market, ZH will most likely be the first to let us know and then we can begin to profit on the decline.
But one cannot trade on the overall concept of collapse that is the primary theme of this site. Collapse might come, but it is not here and if you read between the lines of Tyler, you can make a buck or two out of this "joke" of a market.
Here's hoping you do well today.
not exactly true, zh is right about gold (for the right reason) and right about silver (for the wrong reason).
but they get angry and emotional when something like AAPL goes up, not sure why? I can only think it's because they hate to see someone else make a lot of money.
The equities market is broken. Let's be real. DJIA should be floating around 5000 or less, but it isn't due to the gubimint holding it up. This is the basic premise ZH preaches. The realities of the economy do not reflect the market.
If by "someone" you mean prop desks of bailout-bloated Wall St , then yes, "hate" is the operative word.
Yep every rally monkey has his hat on inside out, it's rally time!
Long up before new home sales miss cause then we really fly
as the US army is the biggest employer in the US, I wouldn't subtract them from the economy.
DoD is roughly 1/3 of the Federal gov't. payroll. The other 2/3 (1.3 million) is primarily bureaucracy, that earns on average, 30%+ more than the private sector. They produce less value than they consume, and have a weighty union to help feed the beast.
How much POMO money hit the market on that durable number I wonder?
Clearly, more than enough.
More POMO $$$ to follow soon enough!
The market is obviously being pumped by the same insolvent banks that can't figure out what homes they own. What a joke it has become. I used to think it had some rational to it, not anymore !
Stocks are rallying b/c this is a good number.
1. Durable expectations was for -1.0% (not -0.1%), slight miss at -1.3%
2. The more important Ex-transpo # came in @2% vs. exp. of 1%
3. Ex Air much higher and ALL REVISIONS higher--which are very important.
I agree stock market is rich at these levels but this is a good number and it should be up.
Surely the market is rallying because the USD just got a whole lot weak on these poor numbers?
The whole world economy is all a mess that will come undone in one hell of a nasty fashion anyway.
Thanks brown, I agree with you, but we will be heckled for our positive comments.
More like for your lousy comments since stocks don't go down on bad news as much as it goes up on good news (in a relative sense - which means either not-so-terrible news or no-news). If you can't see this as an artificial prop up, than CNBC and Yahoo is awaiting yoru return.
Gotta give you credit. Your ID (bull-market_3.0) shows that you wear your bias on your sleeve for all the world to see. No stealth bull here.
I also noticed your Zero Hedge comment trail disappears, or at least greatly diminishes, during down drafts in the market. I wonder why?
Heckle, heckle. Gootchie, gootchie.
You are smarter than them. You are Stock Surfer-Super Hero Dude. Sure the system is rigged, you are realistic, but hey, you'll be able to pull out in time. Like that girl you screwed. You're damned good like that.
GS and JPM trading bots thank you for your partizipation.
Now get back to work, serf, and make us some more fiat to suck back into our Zombie system. You are our lifeblood after all. We can't make it happen without you.
I hope you feel heckled now. I'd hate to disappoint.
Must be the autistic sibling of "VW Bug".
that makes sense, since i am a bear and usually lose money on big up days like today, but hey, your reality is a bit different than most.
thing is, when i lose money being short (or long) i don't whine that i'm right and the world is wrong, and that it's all manipulation.
take it like a man for once would ya? You're wrong. period.
Well put.
When I lose, I lose. The world is not out to get me, I just made a trade that went the wrong way. BB does not monitor my account.
I try to learn and move on. Makes life a lot easier.
Stocks Bitchezzz!
http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.listzblog.com/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/stalks4.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.listzblog.com/top_ten_deadly_tools_methods_torture_list.html&usg=__ZBTzjrAzBrc_PxUW3mjqgad3Uck=&h=393&w=484&sz=49&hl=en&start=0&zoom=1&tbnid=rXO0GHd_TjAhJM:&tbnh=139&tbnw=165&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dstocks%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26biw%3D1280%26bih%3D713%26tbs%3Disch:10,200&um=1&itbs=1&iact=rc&dur=582&ei=EqWcTLmyN97nnQfb9biEDQ&oei=EqWcTLmyN97nnQfb9biEDQ&esq=1&page=1&ndsp=18&ved=1t:429,r:16,s:0&tx=83&ty=54&biw=1280&bih=713
Stocks should be up because this is a good number. And stocks should be up when bad numbers come out because that increases the odds of QE 2, which is an indicator that numbers are getting bad, the only reason to ignite QE 2. I love circular logic because it always gives me what I want to see and hear.
The fact is that this market is being pushed up artificially, igniting the herd mentality. And the believers of the myth are casting about for any excuse to explain a higher market. Confirmation bias has gone into high gear.
And of course, today is another POMO day, along with next Tuesday and Thursday. But that's just a coincidence.
BTW brown90, considering you've been registered on ZH for 11 weeks, why is this your one and only comment so far, ever, on Zero Hedge.
Why is it relevant that I don't post? I don't comment b/c generally there is no reason to but I did this time b/c I saw a mistake.
"US Durable Goods Orders (Aug) M/M -1.3% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.3%, Rev. to 0.7)"
Expectation was actually -1.0%- pretty sig diff. Therefore this # is acutally decent and from the 1st comments posted it seemed like people didn't know why stocks were going up. I agree that stocks are rich, I sold most of my PA before Fed meeting. BTW stock have sold off since Bernanke told the world they will be doing QE2, therefore no circular logic. The move today is too strong and I would be fading it but I am busy being short Treasuries and loving it....
A mistake? You saw a mistake? So in the last 11 weeks, you've only seen one mistake?
My God, does this kind of logic work elsewhere?
by god CD you're right! he must be part of the black ops! Everybody out of the hot tub!!
Nice strawman. Heck of a job Brownie.
Acutally in 11 weeks I have generally seen excuses from people trying to explain their losses. There have been some intelligent comments as well but mainly the former. The reason I posted today was to help out some guys that perhaps misunderstood the number, that's all. No hidden agenda or conspiracy as hard as that might be for u to understand. I didn't realize that some know-it-all with an Interactive Brokers account was going to jump all over me. In the future I'll refrain from misleading you with my logic and facts. Please feel free to go back to your 100 daily post, online poker and bitching about the end of the world. I'll be busy trading real money.
Oh the number is good, sort of weights the previous negative surprise. But this jump is and shall be attributed to a POMO day more than the number itself. Also, I dont believe we will see 1200 before we see sub 1000 with huge volatility in between. Better to sit back and watch.
so one could say the ex-transpo number was 100% higher than expectations!
Are these really good numbers? Not too sure.
August's US durable good orders suggest that the recovery in the manufacturing sector, which was the only real success story of the last year, has faded significantly. This is shown most clearly by the slowdown in the three-month-on-three-month growth rate of core (exc. transport) orders from 26.2% in May to -4.1% in August. Most of the other data are distorted by noise. For instance, we wouldn't put too much weight on the 1.3% m/m fall in headline orders, as this was due to a 40% m/m drop back in commercial aircraft bookings after July's 69% surge. At the same time, the 2.0% m/m rise in core orders is encouraging, but it followed a 2.8% decline the month before (revised from a 3.8% drop). The data on non-defence capital goods shipments, however, are always interesting as they have a direct bearing on investment. Despite the 0.3% m/m fall, it seems as though investment in business equipment and software will still increase at a healthy clip in the third quarter, although not by as much as the 25% annualised gain chalked up in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the modest 0.4% m/m rise in inventories suggests that inventory rebuilding is coming to an end; a few months ago inventories were rising by 1.2% a month. Overall, these data highlight that the rapid rebounds in manufacturing activity, business investment and inventories enjoyed over the last year have slowed. Hopefully they won't go into reverse, as that would leave the economy with precious few areas of growth.
(Capital Economics)
LOL yeah total dollar amount drops 1.3% and that is bullish - do you work for CNBS?
brown90:
How did you get flagged as junk six times for your original comment when you're the only one looking at the data objectively? As you said, the durable goods number was a slight miss, not a major miss.
The substantial rise in new orders for computers and communications equipment is particularly worrisome for those hoping for a double-dip.
I thought today was a POMO day, a few billion is going into the market today no matter what.
Chart: USD
Dollar futures, previously appearing to form a bullish Gartley, has evolved into a Butterfly. Looks up from here.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/09/usd_24.html
It will require a brass pair to go long USD right now.
Looks like a bottoming doji on the 15-minute at 79.57. Brass balls? You, me and every other American is long this puppy.
Nice butterfly. Fly to the pentacle post puppa puppy.
Why are we looking to correlate this futures move with the data? We know it's POMO Friday and we see the ramp started 1/2 hour before the data was out.
Good point, this news will be framed as "the reason" for the rally today. It will be in all the closing headlines before the weekend starts.
Ask Bill Gross, he knows everything.
With the government pumping $120 billion a month into the economy these are pretty pathetic numbers. Tke away deficit spending and the numbers would be through the floor.
+$120B
Rahm is putting coins in the machine himself this a.m.
coins and coins only PLEASSSSSE. There's so much hot money in this market and then ka-BAM. Bastards have been getting a way with murder. Better watch out or that landfill might have your name on it this time.
The market may be able to stay irrational
longer than I can stay solvent, however,
The market can not go up on questionable new
forever. The longer this disturbing trend
continues, the farther it will ultimately fall.
Core capital goods orders still 1.4% below Junes level........I'm excited.....worth at least 1000 points.
And at least 12% in real terms behind July 2008 levels.
I am in europe and let me tell you there are stalled construction projects - esp. residential all over the place. The cost of living has come down since I was last here so inflation is negative. I am off to Greece soon to see what is happening there. I got tired of the press feeding me shit so I decieded to check out what was happening on the ground.
<it is fucked. Bye bye
inventory just SITTING there, eh? same here! I thought "all this free money was going to find a productive place"? apparently someone confused the "war on terror" with WWII! a trillion for a friggin' million man army???? Wall Street itself is trying to take out its own banking system, unfortunately "the electorate" isn't cooperating. no wonder the Democrats are raging.
Our 100 point move in the Dow futures has happend before the cash open. It's Friday and we have one more economic release, home sales.
I bet we see a tight range for the rest of the day as fund mannagers try to hold the stock market up for end of quarter window dressing.
Window dressing you say?
You mean to say fund managers act in collusion? That people can act together in a conspiracy without a word spoken in agreement to do so? That a common "good" or belief or desired outcome is all that's needed for a group of people to act together?
WOW! I was told this was impossible. Will wonders never cease.
<sarcasm off>
ohhhhh i get it now...no wonder i didn't understand you guys seeing conspiracies everywhere.
So, when individuals act in their own self interest, which just happens to be the same as other individuals in the same business, that's a conspiracy!
I get it now.
Many apologies for my past criticisms.
I had a completely different definition of conspiracy you see.
My what a broad brush you use. It's clear what you're agenda is here. Carry on. You're doing a great job Brownie.
hehehe well i like it that you're consistent.
so any 2 random posters who happen to disagree with you MUST therefore be the same person, as it isn't possible that more than 1 person in the world could disagree with your brilliance.
hehehe ahhh i do find you very entertaining, although i prefer when you stick to short posts, i can't get through those longer ones
Where did I say two random posters are one person?
Strawman! That's two in one thread.
why is it that the few posters here who take a contrarian view never accuse all zh'rs of being the same person?
ohhh because we don't have the 'everything is a conspiracy against me' mindset i guess.
hey, i give tyler or whoever is in charge permission to make it open to all if i am posting under any other ids.
(oh, but i am a black ops guy, right, so i must have all the latest technology to mask my ip address and all that, hahaha)
Strawman.
That's three in one thread. You're on a roll.
BTW I can see you IP address. You're very transparent. :>)
damn! better call hq, you guys are onto me!
This is the trillion dollar conundrum. Can we have a stock market crash while the Fed has the pedal to the metal? We will get an answer to that, but when.
no, but you can have an "economy crash." every indicator points to "now you pay for things." with all this funny money and no stuff--where can it possibly go?
The spin on BNN in Canada about the durable goods report was uber-bullish - I've never seen anything like it. They made it sound ike it was 2006 again. They put as something like 'after taking out some of the more volatile components it was a fantastic number..
There was also mention of some US travel report - they showed a chart of hotel revenues that made it look like we were back to 2007-08 levels and that National Park visits were up - no idea what the rest of it was...
They used to be a lot more constrained but lately they're the same bullish pumpers you'd see on CNBC.
there's something in the room that they'd rather not talk about. he's waiting for his "benefit package."
SPY is up .95% year to date. Equities are an over-rated asset class at this time. MUB (muni bond etf) is up 3.89% ytd on tax frees !!!. Bonds should continue to beat Equities as the Fed is lathering up to do QE2 one way or another. I look for the 10 year to be pushed down to 2% at some point
can't have "Dow up 200" and "interest rates plunge." you CAN have "Dow up 200 and insurance company get's a little shaky" however.
There are no secretes anymore. Anybody that matters knows this is all bullshit, they know the US and Europeane economies are totally fucked in a very nasty way and that the inevitable black swan will blow the whole cirus to kingdom come at some stage.
They all know the market is artificial and is nothing to do with anything, they know it is pumped, they know government stats are manipulated, they know the media is out there to put a postive spin on all and any data.
It isn't possible that the people with money dont know this stuff by now.
Now they are probably all grateful for the charade, to give them time to run to protection, and to keep a lid on gold and silver so they can get more into it before it soars.
The thing is, 'they' don't know what else to do except keep playing the old game until someone tells the gun is out of bullets.
Economies are just keeping their head above water because of accelerated ponzyism.
And the great hope China, well that helped them too, but that will likely slow than accelerate now.
All the 'important' people are just stealing all the parachutes while the smoke screen continues.
The thing is, 'they' don't know what else to do except keep playing the old game until someone tells the gun is out of bullets.
+ 1000
people are no longer being tricked into the myth that buying and holding equities is the only game in town. The problem for portfolio managers is, most of them have to be near fully invested, and they have to talk up their game. We don't have to listen
The dollar is getting crushed 79.44. High fiving at the Fed will end soon enough.
So this explains the massive build in inventories that have become stuffed. Inventories last month were showing to building, but they were not moving from there. I will bet my left testicle that these numbers will be revised down and next month this numbers will be miserable.
where's "Buzzsaw"?
Anyone watching AAPLs response to this wonderous morning rally?
Insanity to 11,000. Gold is going to be doing the moon walk soon.
Chart: ES
Sweeping out the shorts. Watch out below!
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/09/es_7285.html
I've heard that for some hard core drug addicts, when their supply gets low, rather than stretch out their dwindling supplies to last a few more days, they go for one last big bang before the DT's set in.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delirium_tremens
And I hear with hard core labor addicts. Rather than fight with employees and discuss untennable retirement promises they like to BAM pull a huge recession or depression. To give enough fallout and crisis to actually let thier promises fall through the cracks.
That's what happens when you get addicted to other people's resources.
which ones? equity? (are there any even left?) or debt??????
every uptick allows retailers to reduce their equity positions. let the outflows continue and this time, the public is the smart money
Wow. Love CD's comments here. Love this market that ignores all bad news and finds some trifling report to ignite a short covering rally.
Many years ago, they asked Wild Bill Hickok why he played in a 3 card Monte game that everyone knew was crooked and rigged. Hickok said, "well, because its the only game in town."
That is the only explanation you really need.
Wild indeed. He never needed any incentive to "pull the smoke wagon."
US goods orders fall more slowly than expected
..and here you are.
this is a complete waste of time. unless you are fucking retarded (or a paying subscriber to the frbny's stock market fraud service) stop participating either long or short.
Exactly. I have been out for quite some time. I think most individuals are. I am in absolute awe of a market that ignores the 300 ton Godzilla that is in the room. 20 trillion in debt with 90 trillion coming due and payable. 26 million people out of substantial work, 5 million homes underwater, gerry rigged accounting, it is a testament to the insanity of people.
and so AAPL is losing money as a result, is that right?
or is someone missing something here?
you are missing the point
and btw with flawed logic like this appl can double by eoy
"We spoke with 608 people in line for the iPhone 4 (Thursday) in San Francisco, Minneapolis, and New York.," Munster wrote in a research note Friday. "The bottom line: 77 percent of new iPhone buyers were existing iPhone owners (upgrades), compared to 56 percent in 2009, and 38 percent in 2008. Apple is effectively building a recurring revenue stream from a growing base of iPhone users that upgrade to the newest version every year or two."
http://news.cnet.com/8301-31021_3-20008852-260.html
i doubt aapl will double by eoy, but i suppose it's possible.
what you posted seems quite bullish for aapl, especially longer term.
guess someone is still missing something.
"are you gonna pull that smoke wagon or just stand there and bleed."
Pigs get slaughtered.
if the durable goods number is that great, why is the dollar weaker? If the number is that great, the odds of QE should have gone down...
Just a note on the aircraft orders, the plunge happens after every Farnborough/Paris Airshow which happens in July. Everyone holds off their new orders until that point, and announces them at the show for maximum visibility, so naturally there's a big downer right after. The overall numbers are still low, but with everyone working only on short-term memory, the comparisons to last year show a good improvement.
As for the stock's reaction, yes it's ridiculous since they were already overpriced, and there's no real buyers. It's just a factor of the computers catching onto a good headline and frontrunning the money coming out of treasuries trying to find a home. The treasuries are the real crowded trade right now, not the stock market. The only reason the stock market is so highly priced is only due to computers. Today's rise in stocks does not represent people rushing into them thinking they are a good value, it is money flowing out of treasuries and reluctantly trickling into equities regardless of their high price just because there's not many other choices for it left to go to.
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