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DXY Passes 78, 135% Annualized Move In Past Two Weeks
Was it a mere two weeks ago that the dollar was at the year's lows?
This is what a (moderate) squeeze looks like: a 135.8% annualized move. Last time the DXY was here was on September 8. And yet stocks are still confusing a higher dollar with strength. Look for a snapback.
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KING DOLLAR
naked :-) like the Emperor
Certainly. The USD is nonetheless screwed, using its only salvation becoming the RoW carrying out worse. I do not understand how it is feasible Home Decorators Coupons for Europe to possess a shittier, much more corrupt, and dumber group of leaders than we do right here but apparently they are doing. In any case our program is really a derivative of theirs, with much more space for corrupt people to complete their factor. Both way it appears that's precisely what's occurring now. I truly wish I had been much more acquainted with European monetary markets to type a much better hypothesis about this unfolding situation.
When does Pisani come out and butcher the explanation of the Carry trade??
Pisani is a douchebag....whenever USD goes up and the markets tank, he keeps on saying the Dollar should behave...what an annoying Fck. Though recently, the markets have continued higher in the face of a stronger Dollar, so he doesnt rant as much about it. Anyhow it makes no sense that both can be up though with the light volume, its easier to push stocks up with little volume.
In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king.
tattooed across my chest and back:
In regione caecorum rex est luscus
As a 32 year old 1 eyed man I feel the statement is more than appropriate. My generation is going to wake up one day living in a democracy dominated by the ignorant and the old. Oh wait thats already happening. Better go Facebook my frustration soI feel like I'm doing something.
no.
in the land of the blind the one eyed man is LAME
I like your ideas and thoughts. While chat and sohbet with my friends talking about it.
Global currency Andy - it's all going to one (Canada, Euro...)
Dollar, ditches!
yeah dont remind me of that idiot pls
I am PolishHammer
The usual expiration week manipulation, if it comes unglued, it's next weeks problem.
meant stocks.
And what do you buy stocks with or sell stocks for? What is the connection?
I'm enjoying the dollar rise. Knock those gold and silver prices down baby!
Strange how steady gold has been eh?
Define steady. Dollar has picked up 4%, gold has lost about that much, no?
I think it's about a 5:1 delta. For every 1% move in the USD, it usually would imply a 5% move in Gold. Not this time though because there's probably some fundamentals behind any gold support.
Gold ratio vs Bucky is about 5:1, so I'd say some strong fundamentals are holding the metal together, believe it or not. I expect at some point, we'll see divergence in the other direction once investors and market players exhaust expectations for recovery on top of a flurry of cracks in the system and another strong PPI number. The plan is: rates up, Gold up (Oil follows later), Bucky slammed, stocks crushed. When is the question, maybe after another run-up, then shakeout, then Nirvana!
Hmmm.
iRates up, dollar down and gold up?
Not likely, methinks.
Debt default deflation usury swamps all other
assets combined...
only if they have the juice to come collect.
Fed will backstop everything with monetization.
They bought RMBS, CMBS probably next
methinks this is an event you might have never seen to compare to. USD debasement, rates up, gold up is very likely as debt rises at exponential rate. You'd certainly have to pay a higher rate of return for the risk.
Wasn't the whole strong dollar move a play on Dubai which was resolved?
Dubai only got a $10B bailout out of $80B+ exposure. And Greece is the next Dubai. Watch out for Spain, Iceland, and the other free-loaders in the non-core Euro system. Expect more sovereign credit risk in Eastern Europe. Each currency will take turns debasing to cope with the real estate deflation, and the dollar is benefiting at the moment. The US will be up to bat soon for more dollar debasement.
Completely agree, but I try to be as shortsighted as possible since it seems like that's how the market functions....
Plus France and Italy.
When Germany goes,
it may be all over
in the twinkling of an eye.
Why debase when freebasing?...
LOL if this keeps up for another month, maybe everyone who started jumping on the dollar rally in july will come close to breaking even
Dosent everyone understand , this whole market is not a market. The whole thing is controled by the Wizard behind the curtian Ben Bernanke and " the bad Machine from the factory " Goldman Sachs. There's the logic. I'm done trying to figure out this market
They wish.
GS going down and Bernanke with 7 committee
votes against his renomination say otherwise.
Wait until the votes on the Senate floor and in the
market...
And so where are the gold bug idiots now?
Are you fucking serious?
We are sitting here with the 10 straight years worth of gains we've made buying gold.
We are sitting here CHEERING the dollar higher so we can buy more for less FRN's while there still exists a marketplace where people will trade their physical gold for paper broken promises.
Talk to me if the DXY is higher ten years from now when the "official" debt is $22-25 Trillion. (that is, if we're even lucky enough for there to be a DXY 10 years from now)
http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au3650nyb.html
Rusty's got it. Bring down gold vs. the dollar! Yeah, go ahead. I am waiting to buy more gold! My mouth waters.
Famous last words of Linda Lovelace?...
...or Paris Hilton?
Still buying...we're not dumb enough to believe that a nation whose debt is doubling every 8 or 9 years is going to honor its promises and its currency.
We recognize that the US is a bankrupt state, therefore we have little faith in its notes.
NPV of our entitlements, what...$100T? You REALLY think dollar is king?
Can anyone explain why the dollar has rebounded so strongly? Is it mostly about Euro weakness? What fundamentals changed between Nov. and Dec.? Help a guy out.
I think this is only a short term trade to drive spx down for the option expiration dates. Early this week, someone (likely GS/JPM) bought 330,000 UUP Dec. 23 calls compare to less less than 1000 puts. When everyone thinks USD is going down, trade it up.
thanks
Fundamentals haven't really changes that much. As long as the crats are in office and running Congress, Bucky will falter. Judging by the velocity of this move, I'd call it a correction more than anything. Further USD strength is likley until perhaps the next UE report. Until then, if you have balls, you short the bucky some more....
Bloody bollocks...
End of year?. Too many tbs coming online,
ibs selling some of thejunk they bought in China for 10-50x,and repatriating the money to buy TBs?. Of course with the trade deficit cut in half,there is bound to be some strength. But with a bleeding to the tune of 1 bil a day,a net capital outflaw as zh showed a couple of days ago,how long the dollar is going to stay up?. And once BB is back in full,what is he going to do to destroy it again?. Don't forget the Senator reference to "what do you tell senior citizen when their dollar is 75c now". But hey,if even Jim Rogers turned dollar bull(albeit he thinx he is going to lose because he is a bad market timer)who am I to talk?
Fuck Senator...when are they going to cut spending?
Answer: never. Only hiring growth is in .gov, only pay raises too.
THEY are the principal driver of inflation. We've got 12 TRILLION of bullshit debt with another 12 coming
Fuck Senator...when are they going to cut spending?
Answer: never. Only hiring growth is in .gov, only pay raises too.
THEY are the principal driver of inflation. We've got 12 TRILLION of bullshit debt with another 12 coming
Chet-
No change in fundamentals. Dollar shorts were a massively over-crowded trade. Long overdue for a rally.
Personally thought the trigger was advance knowledge on the new Basel guidelines.
Euro CDS blew out across the board.
Euroland banks are deep in the well Timmy.
So do you figure that after a temporary squeeze the dollar will fall again?
Seems like the Fed would want to keep up the same dynamic we had from March to November.
Dollar rebounding = manifestation of deflation fears trumping inflation fears
Bingo, although more likely deflation realites
vs inflation fantasies...
idiot...deflation means that the USG defaults. PERIOD.
QE of $1.5T and you are still thinking deflation. If they can't grow it with credit, they will print it. FDR devalued, so will Ben. There is no other option
May be BB looked at those graphs of gold/spx ratio and DXY/spx that TD keeps on taunting him with. BB goes back and assemble a mmeting:who the pluck is this TD,and why is he always in my face?. Answer:We don't know sir.BB:speed dial BF for me. Answer:O.K sir. BF:Yes I am busy with a nice chick BB,what do you want?we got you your retiree money that your winey people kept crying about,and these are not my words,these are our friend Gramm's words.Bb:there is this guy that keeps giving me nightmares,and he doesn't even have a name,some ZH,and he keeps on showing those graphs about gold dollar and spx,by the way,what do they all mean?. Oh,and by the way,you haven't paid our retirees all you guys took from them. BF:ddon't worry,I will take care of it,you can go back to sleep. This conversation took place roughly in the beginning of DEC(lol)
A ponzi is dependent on the naivete of investors and the charisma of the schemer.
We do not know the assumed exponent of the HAND.
No, seriously, how do you come up with those wonderful quotes? Simply amazing!
The $ may continue to benefit from being the best house in a bad neighborhood, given the potential for some really ugly pin action in EU land on their weak links and their exposure to eastern Europe. Bad as the situation may be in the coming months in the US with mortgage resets, CRE problems, fiscal recklessness, and folks not hot for 30yr t bonds, the US hasn't gone code blue. May not be able to say the same for the Euro in 6 to 9 months.
" Best house in a bad neighborhood "......yeah, that pretty well nails it.
Like the U.S. is a whorehouse in a neighborhood full of crack houses.
I liked Max Keiser's analogy:
"The dollar is the leper with the most fingers left".
amen to that Rainman...absolutely correct.
Indeed. The USD is still screwed, with its only salvation being the RoW performing worse. I don't know how it's possible for Europe to have a shittier, more corrupt, and dumber set of leaders than we do here but apparently they do. After all our system is a derivative of theirs, with more room for corrupt humans to do their thing. Either way it seems that is exactly what's happening now. I really wish I was more familiar with European financial markets to form a better hypothesis on this unfolding scenario.
Hey, don't sell our politicians short.
Reminds me of this Onion bit:
http://www.theonion.com/content/node/47127
Good stuff.
5+% move in 2 weeks for a basket (acknowledging the weight of the Euro) is anything but "moderate". Perhaps you were being sarcastic. I agree , time for the DXY to breath out some.
Agreed. While I like the intermediate term prospects, I took some off the table. It keeps my itchy trigger finger happy while letting the rest of a position ride.
Oops - meant this as a reply to Thurgy.
What do you think is the most likely path from here?
1) Europe gets its shit together and the Euro solidifies. Then the USD resumes it's inevitable trench downhill while precious metals come back to the table as the only real means of capital preservation.
2) Europe doesn't get its shit together, and it takes a huge haircut as the USD rises 30% in what feels like overnight as everyone parks their cars at the best house in the neighborhood.
Still, I think sooner or later it's inevitable that the USD will fall along with everything else. I for one welcome the fall of fiat currencies and central banks. I value the KISS method in life, not to exclude finances. The sheer complication of the financial markets are evidence enough that they are overflowing with corruption and have numerous methods to rape the population.
The dollar does not fall in a meaningful way until
all bad debts are repaid by foreclosure at lower and
lower prices. In other words, lost decades from now
like Japan. That is, unless we get some more real
DC reps in place in 2010...
absurd. Dollar is dependent upon Fed circlejerk funding the US deficits.
If this were a real market, the USD would collapse at the next auction...because...the...fucking...government...is...bankrupt.
The fed doesn't give a shit about the DEBT. The debt is just a mythical magical thing used to collect the interest "PAYMENT". Which is the real thing. Until you stand up say I'm not paying you a goddamn cent of interest cause it's easier to fucking cut you. Then the bullshit to reality ties are severed.
The mind fuck is making the debt real. Making it so huge that it can never be paid back. Making it impossible to default and then transforming the system into a very low interest rate real system only with a huge debt on THEIR side making it forever unfair. Then all they got to do is manage the "burdening" and they've set up thier perma parasite to host interace. Won't happen cause all virus's and parasites are born fuckups.
Money means nothing. I can toss a million dollars at you and it means NOTHING. Until you actually give it to someone else and they give you what you want it's MEANINGLESS. But the money changers and the money system do nothing but get in the way of every intereaction and make you owe someone who gave you NOTHING while no owing someone who actually gave you goods and services because the bank money system jumped in as intermediary to the transaction. Often using NOBODIES resources but printed fake money.
Wish I had a magic crystal ball - but no such luck. There are so many pieces in play, and many that aren't in plain sight to one of the unwashed such as myself.
My current $ optimism is based on an assumption that things in Europe are going to get a lot worse over the next 6 to 12 months with their banking systems' heavy exposure to some very iffy situations, and problem children at home. In my opinion, Americans tend to air a lot more of our dirty laundry in public than other countries (although many articles on ZH show that there is much more that should be aired), and many insular Americans are not as aware of the problems and issues overseas, and get the skewed impression that things are dire here, and not so much elsewhere. If this plays out, the $ could have a very healthy multi-month (or longer) run. However, if the US doesn't start getting its fiscal house in order (no small feat), after the weaker dominos topple, it could be next in line.
Some of the nascent populism, growing backlash against how AIG and other situations were handled (no haircuts for counterparties, egregious bonuses, etc.), the hot potato that is the debt ceiling, and sentiment against Bernanke may temper the use of the printing press for a while, also $ positive. In some of these actions, I see a possible toehold for a return of fiscal discipline. Guess I'm an optimist at heart.
On the other hand, US mid-term elections are looming large in the collective psyches of both Dems and Repubs. I think the temptation to prime the pump in a big way heading into the elections will be strong. If this occurs, it could be very $ negative. What would be the impact of an awful treasury auction? Longer term, if the ship holds together, higher interest rates would likely provide support to the dollar and help establish a new equilibrium - somewhere.
If Bernanke's at the helm and the mortgage resets and CRE problems turn out to be pretty bad, is he going to turn to his old playbook (and printing press)? $ negative.
But its all relative if other parts of the world are in greater distress. Or if somehow real growth does take hold, in the face of enormous debt and lousy demographics.
No clue how which way it's going to go, but the $ technicals in late November and early Dec. were certainly pointing to bottoming and providing a seemingly low risk entry. Dubai helped highlight the potential fragility of the Eurozone, if only for an instant before [most of] the crickets started chirping again. I, like many others, like to find and trade macro themes. But I've also learned the hard way more times that I would like to admit that when the charts and the macro theme diverge, it's best to follow the chart. When they start pointing to $ topping, abruptly or otherwise, I will move on.
This is bad. The size of the payments and liquidations this is showing is not good at all. Somebody is buying something really expensive. Gold is bouncing back and forth. This is 2008's liquidations all over again with the stock market nailed to the wall. Weird. Are stocks plummeting in russia or china?
Stocks are down in China and India (ADR indicies), but Russia... funny you mention. RSX would be breaking the neckline of its Head & Shoulders just formed, but the pop in oil this week is keeping it up here.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RSX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p77668390985
So 2 out of 3 gold buying countries are getting nuked. Russia being saved by oil. It'll likely intensify next week. If the dollar makes it back to 82 ish then we'll be in 66 to 62 dxy by freaking January 20th. I knew the dollar would bounce but I thought it would be like weekly small waves not a huge tsunami. The central banks are pulling the same stunt they do with gold. Massive concerted dumpings to drive the swaps down. They are just doing reverse on dollar.
People always most bullish at the top
and most skeptical at the bottom.
Their emotions Blindside themselves.
Ask yourself why IMF would sell Gold
and Treasuries at new highs?...
Who honestly really gives a fuck? The dollar is trash...nobody needs it. They can trade their oil for real goods or services and vice versa.
Who cares what the freakin IMF does? It's an institution based upon fiat bullshit. Nations are stockpiling real things for some type of trade settlement; if you can't smell the end of the dollar as reserve coming and see the writing on the wall, you're dumber than Crammer.
Seigniorage is worth at least 50% of the DXY and responsible for propping this trash currency up for decades.
Look at our accounts and fiscal deficits and aggregate debts. People look around and think we're all that and a bag of chips because we're in DEBT TO OUR EYEBALLS. We are NOT RICH. My exwife lived real large off of debt up until she imploded, just like legions of sports and entertainment stars who one day just go freaking bankrupt.
Argentine Peso is up a little against the dollar so far this month....
The Peruvian Sol is up some 10% vs. the US$ this year.
Face it folks,,,,,expenditures 40%++ of falling revenues, $2.5T in Treasury rolls in '10 and how do we finance the recently approved $1.1T spending bill UGH!!?? DXY is $70 before $80, don't worry be happy as long as you've got some gold bars holding the door open!
The more I read and learn I question whether even gold bars will keep us above water. But yes, everything that's happening does make you want to scratch your head and wonder why we aren't holding lynching parties rather than tea parties when our 'representatives' come home.
Don't stub your toe or starve yourself.
Gold down from 1226.40 to 1098 so far...
Bring it on down to $800. I would be a buyer at those levels.
Fiat currency is no longer an option. It is based on trust, and the trust has been irrevocably destroyed.
Yep, goldbugs are really suffering!
It's only up 26% this year so far...
The market swings drive taxes into the treasury....I doubt they care about the price of anything in particular, just as long as the tide continues to go in and out.
The problem will come when the herd can no longer be stampede in or out of anything...
adam & eve bottom on uncle buck is very constructive and exactly what ya'd wanna see as a diller bull.
basically: an "adam & eve bottom" occurs when there is a 'tall' bar or three which push forcefully off of a new low (check) to then retest the low in choppy, stunted, overlapping fashion ... thereby confirming a FNL (failed new low).
think of 'adam' as a hammer, especially a bullishly engulfing one.
think of eve as a series of fat little bars which overlap, effectively exhibiting a pause in price action as short-term measures of momentum / trend / atr / adx / dmi, etc. effectively reset themselves in preparation for the follow-through (in this case up).
from bulkowski ...
http://thepatternsite.com/aedb.html
When can we expect BubbleVision to start talking about a bubble in the dollar?
The dollar rally I forecast some time ago -continues to trend up (although overbought now after it's big run.)
The rally may last for years.
Daily charts of key equity indexes are still showing signs of breaking down.
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0
"The dollar is the leper with the most fingers left", it's really great thesis but if we're doomed to relive the past, we could do a lot worse!
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