Dylan Grice On The Coming Japanese Hyperinflation

Tyler Durden's picture

To those who follow Dylan Grice's writings closely (and everyone should), his proposal that the only possible outcome for Japan, where stunningly tax revenues no longer ever cover non-discretionary expenditures - a sad fate that awaits none other than the US eventually, is to hyperinflate its way out, is not new. Nonetheless, during the just completed annual CFA Institute annual institute held in Edinburgh, he gave an updated presentation which indicates that he has not yet changed his opinion that if forced to pick between the lesser of two defaults, the only option is that of unbridled printing, now that the US has firm leg up in the global fiat race to the currency bottom, which we predicted back in 2009, will be the key feature of the macro theme until the end of the Keynesian experiment. So, as before, Grice's recommendation, away from the natural trade of shorting bonds (a negative carry trade which has cost the likes of Kyle Bass a pretty penny over the years) as one awaits this only possible outcome, is to actually discount the future, something the market has completely forgotten how to do, and buy stocks, in advance of the Weimar Rally for the Rising Sun. Below we present "Hoping for the best, preparing for the worst...in Japan" -  Grice's presentation of an upcoming Japanese hyperinflation, which explains not only why Japan can't afford higher JGB yields, but why its to-date favorable demographic are now looking uglier by the day, and the only outcome for Shirakawa is to finally bite the bullet and beat the Chairsatan at his own game, in the process forcing the Bernank's own hand if he wishes to retain the USD's place at the head of the FX devaluation race.

For the really ADHD afflicted, here is the "CDS trader" abridged version:

  • Japan’s unprecedented predicament: A large creditor nation, a bankrupt government, and a shrinking population
  • Competing forces in the hyperinflation template: An unsustainable public debt profile with persistent current account surpluses
  • Protecting portfolios: How investors can cheaply hedge against the risk of an extreme scenario

For much more, read inside:

Grice Hyperinflation

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Dapper Dan's picture
  • Nuclear fuel at Fukushima No. 1 unit likely melted after exposed

    TOKYO, May 12 - (Kyodo)

    Nuclear fuel rods inside the No. 1 reactor of the crippled Fukushima Daiichi power plant likely melted after being fully exposed and are being cooled in water at the bottom of the pressure vessel, plant operator Tokyo Electric Power Co. said Thursday.

    But we already knew that.

  • dlmaniac's picture

    Default or hyperinflate, Japan is facing the same issue.

    EnglishMajor's picture

    Did everyone know that they have found Uranium in Hawaii and along the West Coast, or that they found Americium in New England?  Do you want to see what it looks like when nuclear reactors blow up and spew radiation into the upper atmosphere?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UA5vontE2U

     

     

     

    tmosley's picture

    I guess this is "world falls apart" night on ZH.

    Nate Taggart's picture

    Just a typical Wednesday...   And yes of course, the world happens to be falling apart tonight...

    topcallingtroll's picture

    On thursdays trolls get half priced drinks and double posting privileges.

    Oh regional Indian's picture

    Troll comments and other sake induced babble aside, I hope the fullest degree of what has hit Fukushima is clear to us all.

    Clean water may not be clean, clean air may not be clean. Not for a looooong time anymore or at least not till the earth gives a huge "shake" and spills some healing waters all over the place.

    While Fukushima is down on the ZH headline sweepstakes, it's alive and well and spewing. Worse and worse news, every day, but now, no one really counting. Millions and millions of cooling water gallons back in the ocean. No where to put it. Can't go in, cannot leave it alone.

    If we can fully internalize the extent of this disaster, I think a lot of things, like how the world might look in a year, become clearer by the day.

    The world's 2nd/3rd largest economy just dove off a cliff.

    ORI

    http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/05/09/population-control-vectors/

    Orly's picture

    Way off-topic here:

    I appreciated the link to the Gaia-Sophia philosophy but the ideas still point back to the veda and the concept of Maya.

    Are you sure I should read Castaneda again?

    :D

    citta vritti's picture

    of course Castaneda himself made all or most of it up and passed it off, or let it pass, for good anthropology without apology.

    http://indiancountrytodaymedianetwork.com/2011/03/the-fake-carlos-castan...

    Orly's picture

    Thanks for the enlightening link.  It was always troublesome to me that an Indian shaman would so readily accomodate a stranger and divulge so many secrets to him.

    As the article says, though, he was a very good writer.  Too bad it is a fiction of his own devise.

    :D

    Oh regional Indian's picture

    Actually to me, it does not matter anymore if Don Juan was real of a figment of Castenada's imagination. Those books triggered all kinds of things for/in me. That was their idea. He had tapped into something. No doubt. And yes, he had a knack for writing grippingly.

    Anyways, onwards then... though I suggest it is all there in The teachings of a Yaqui Indian, try:

     

    http://vedanta.org/wiv/overview.html

    Read through a bit. Feel free to reach me by e-mail if you feel called.

    And my advice would be to skip the Vedas, the Mahabharata and other scriptural myth and ritual.

    Vedanta is the essence of the whole thing. And it's secret is wrapped in a sound.

    You'll tell me when you hear it of course. ;-)

     

    ORI

    Green Leader's picture

    They don't see it.

    They are too worried about gold and silver.

     

    Michael's picture

    Gold is like Kyptronite to Federal Reserve paper money. Silver is like Garlic to the Bernanke vampire.

    Michael's picture

    Kings, Queens & Soup Tureens.

    Barack Obama is a soup tureen. George Soros a wanna be king is a soup tureen. Ted Turner, Bill Gates, and Opra are soup tureens. George Bush is a soup tureen. Hillary and Bill Clinton are soup tureens.  

    Understand the concept?

    SilverDoctors's picture

    Can NAFTA Explain the Mystery Gold Shipments Across the US/Mexican Border?

    http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2011/05/docs-thoughts-on-case-of-myste...

    mynhair's picture

    What's different over history?

    How will silver bugs prove quality at 7-11?

    Like the US is solvent?

    We need armies of Zombies we can sell Lib brains to.

    tmosley's picture

    Flip the coin--it rings.  Drop the coin, it has a unique sound.

    Silver is easy to assay for.  No tools required.

    Keri at Bankster Report's picture

    Yes, and of course for silver US coins, you can just look at the date.  Silver coins really go stand out.

    Any .999 metal is very to assay by determining the density: all you need is a graduated container (something big enough to hold the item and that has detailed tick marks on it for measuring the change in water level when you add the item), a gram scale, and some water.  I recently had to test some metal to verify whether or not it was sterling (92.5% silver, 7.5% copper), and so I bought a flask and a super cool 200 gram capacity scale (that reads to 0.000, 4 significant digits) on ebay for $5---for all of it.  I think this kind of gear is good to have on hand.  You can look up the density online or just get the density from testing something you know to be solid something.

    Urban Redneck's picture

    I prefer reloading scales- the manufacturer has a natural incentive to make the reading to four significant digits accurate, as there are life-and-death, and hence significant monetary and legal risks to cutting quality too far.  There are no $5 bargains in the factory direct market, but they cost a lot less than the downsize risk on single counterfeit gold coin.

    I did it by Occident's picture

    Or someone could make a mint (pun intended) by making simple conductivity circuit testers.  The conductivity of a .999 coin should be easy to determine.  Of course, one has to account for temperature and other environmental "noise" to make the circuit accurate enough.

    Temporalist's picture

    When that comes into play everyone will know what real silver is.  That is like asking how do you know your dollar is real...and most people think they are when they're not.

    Kali's picture

    7-11's wont survive.  First, looted and burned to the ground.  If they survive that, their supply chain will be severely disrupted and they will have nothing to sell.

    Zing's picture

    Wrong call.  Deflation will rule the day before hyper-inflation can set in.  Too much debt for the edifice not to implode.

    tmosley's picture

    lol, you just ignore 100% of the history of fiat currency.

    But then, you were an unabashed troll from the start.

    topcallingtroll's picture

    I dont disagree with you, but i think those in control of monetary policy in the usa and japan err on the side of timidity. It would take an amazing gob of monetization, putting this recent round to shame, to cause real hyperinflation. I see the authorities trying, but with half measures that may keep us right on the.border of contraction.

    wisefool's picture

    Did you just espouse the peter principle. Rip van winkle and forest gump rolled into a sweet little confectionary?

    Or are you doing the slim pickens yell at the end of "How I learned to not worry and love the bomb?"

    There is a really big difference. Krugman can not end up being the hero prophet of this era.

    jeff montanye's picture

    the fiscal hose is much harder for the politicians to squirt than the purely monetary one the treserve works (also helps their friends faster and more accurately).  imo you get stagflation that propels p.m.'s much faster than non p.m. equities where the drag of higher interest rates and the "stag" part are more strongly felt.

    i don't see how this makes krugman more a hero than anyone else who said the current plan is vastly suboptimal.  to the degree k. likes the current regime he will be damned by their poor results.

     

     

    akak's picture

    The disingenuous deflationary fearmongers are always silenced by the overwhelming evidence of inflationary fiat monetary history (still batting 1.000) that gives the lie to their pathetic propaganda about the non-existent "threat" of a fiat currency deflation.

    The Navigator's picture

    I recently read an old saying but forget who said it - history doesn't repeat itself but it rhymes (maybe Mark Twain).

    So this is not 1978, it's not 1929, it's not 1934, but it kinda rhymes - deflation, inflation, stagflation, fuckMeFlation, yep I think its the last.

    This time it might be a little different but the stink is the same; common people in the pyre.

    Popo's picture

    Uh.. you're sort of right, but not really.  Historically speaking deflation is the natural state for all economies, and hyperinflation is not.    In fiat based economies, there is (as I believe you are saying) a trend for the currency towards zero.  But it is important to note that that is not the same as hyperinflation.  Hyperinflation of course, would acellerate the approach to null value, but that is by no means assured at this point in time.

    The destruction of credit is very much the trend at this time -- far, far, far more than is expansion of the money supply.   M2 tells this story quite well, and ShadowStats confirms.

    I'm agnostic on this front -- but those who are so sure that 'hyperinflation' is on the table are the ones who are exercising belief over empiricism, economic knowledge or historical perspective.

    Furthermore -- one cannot look only at the history of fiat currencies, as any currency is essentially a derivative of its underlying economy.  The Australian dollar is backed by the commodity value of exports and potential exports.  The Norwegian krone is similiarly backed by oil reserves.  

    Anyone thinking the USD is 'unbacked' is being willfully blind to the state of geopolitics.  

    To put it bluntly,  the USD is backed by the military.   While that may sound like a statistic that does not belong on a balance-sheet -- it is without question the truth.  America quite literally controls the supply of the world's oil.  

    The value is in oil.  The mechanism of extracting value from the world's oil is the USD.  And the means of enforcing that status quo is the military.

    Will this last?   Probably not.  No, the US is probably f*cked over the long term.  I fully expect a collapse will come. 

    But those who preach "history" and "hyperinflation" as if the argument is an obvious one,  and claim that the USD is 'unbacked fiat'  are the ones practicing intellectual dishonesty  (or simply not understanding why the dollar is as strong as it is right now, and not worth pennies).

     

     

    The Profit Prophet's picture

    This ongoing deflation - inflation/hyperinflation argument is loaded with logical fallacies, and I wish that the very intelligent people who frequent this site would realize once and for all that it is not one or the other that will rule the day - it is both! Deflation and inflation/hyperinflation are two sides of the same coin and both are occurring as we speak!!! Deflation is a natural re-balancing of a manipulated market/economy, and inflation/hyperinflation is the man-made response to this deflation of an Oligarchy choosing to retain/increase their wealth. Systemic greed and corruption that crystallizes the political power of an Oligarchy allows for the eventual total control and manipulation of all wealth producing markets. In America (and the world), this manipulation manifested itself in insanely leveraged assets and multiple layers of asset derivatives, where the underlying asset values where intentionally inflated through blind Keynesianism.  The result of this market manipulation is false growth.  Market equilibrium theory (to which I subscribe) dictates that this false GDP must then be recaptured in order for the economy to recover and become healthy again.  This creates a catch-22 for the Oligarchs who control the monetary levers and political strings.  Do you allow the economy to naturally deflate and correct (defaults and haircuts) - voluntarily choosing to lose a portion of your wealth....or do you fight the deflation with every monetary and policy tool you have - preserving/increasing your own wealth in the process and shifting the resulting debt/losses to the masses? Our current conundrum is the result of the Oligarchs choosing the latter for the last 30+ years! The natural deflation currently taking place is now so massive that it is going to take a hyperinflationary response by the Oligarchs - in their hopeless attempt to retain their wealth - to fight the deflation. The natural deflation and hyperinflationary response happen together....they are both happening as we speak.....and who knows when it will all collapse - but it will collapse! 

    So what would you do if you were a card carrying member of the power elite?

    T.E.I.N. everyone!    

    Yen Cross's picture

    Highly unlikely. They (BoJ) is being spent down. They have so much off shore manufacturing. Lots of available resources and buildable land.

    tickhound's picture

    is buildable land an oxymoron?  sounds funny.

    Yen Cross's picture

    Canada ,North America,Africa, South America. Sounds funny doesn't it?

    tickhound's picture

    Yes it does.  The answer is Canada, err... What is Canada, Alex?  Of the four, it is the only one that is not a continent.

    Yen Cross's picture

    I don't recall mentioning continents? Just GEO GRAPHICS!

    floydian slip's picture

    Japans turn to hold the piss bucket whilst Bernaise watches Count de Money shower his attention.

    Bernaise = Bernake

    http://www.wearysloth.com/Gallery/ActorsV/30667-8603.gif

    :D

    Yen Cross's picture

    I want to make (1) thing clear Fro S. I agree with both of you. But facts are facts. Do you want to fight facts or Capitalize on the the facts? Quit bitching and find the weaknesses!

     

    After wwii Japan had no intention of being Americanized. Americas guilt let them get their way. Japan has and always will have an expansionist policy. China fears a small little island nation. Think about it, and study some history.

    floydian slip's picture

    You are the one that needs to study History of the World Part 1

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGfXiIXTpE0&feature=related

    are you laughing yet?

    Yen Cross's picture

    I will study the thread thank you.

    Vlad Tepid's picture

    Ahh, you again, Mr. Cross.  Why do we keep bumping into each other?  

    American guilt? Guilt had nothing to do with it.  We needed an industrially savvy ally to counter the Soviet/communist surge in East Asia. And secondly, Japan as expansionist "always?"  They hate to leave their homeland anymore let alone delusions of conquest, financial or otherwise.  And on what do you base these supposed fears that China harbors of Japan.  China hasn't even blinked at Japan since they built the bomb. I know you're a great trader but your dubious and bull-headed assertions about history and geopolitics leave me scratching my head.

    Urban Redneck's picture

    Between the fall of the Berlin Wall and the meltdown of Fukushima - there was a raging cold war between Japan and China for access and influence in developing and undeveloped markets, it was a very costly cold/soft war which resulted in the accumulation of huge overseas tangible asset reserves for both States. 

    legal eagle's picture

    All that extra paper, bullish for origami

    New Survivalist's picture

    Do they have carnival barkers in Japan?

    Peak Everything's picture

    You know there is something perversely fucked in our system when the best thing that could possibly happen to our species and planet (population reduction) is viewed as a problem.

    Are there any Japanese historians out there?

    I've always wondered how Japan with its meagre natural resources and small land base allowed its population to rise to the most unsustainable level of any country on the planet. Japan is completely fucked when global trade in food starts to unwind, as it will before too long.