Dylan Grice On The Coming Japanese Hyperinflation

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Wed, 05/11/2011 - 23:40 | 1266484 Dapper Dan
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  • Nuclear fuel at Fukushima No. 1 unit likely melted after exposed

    TOKYO, May 12 - (Kyodo)

    Nuclear fuel rods inside the No. 1 reactor of the crippled Fukushima Daiichi power plant likely melted after being fully exposed and are being cooled in water at the bottom of the pressure vessel, plant operator Tokyo Electric Power Co. said Thursday.

    But we already knew that.

  • Thu, 05/12/2011 - 00:29 | 1266574 dlmaniac
    dlmaniac's picture

    Default or hyperinflate, Japan is facing the same issue.

    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 05:27 | 1266882 EnglishMajor
    EnglishMajor's picture

    Did everyone know that they have found Uranium in Hawaii and along the West Coast, or that they found Americium in New England?  Do you want to see what it looks like when nuclear reactors blow up and spew radiation into the upper atmosphere?





    Wed, 05/11/2011 - 23:45 | 1266491 tmosley
    tmosley's picture

    I guess this is "world falls apart" night on ZH.

    Wed, 05/11/2011 - 23:55 | 1266513 Nate Taggart
    Nate Taggart's picture

    Just a typical Wednesday...   And yes of course, the world happens to be falling apart tonight...

    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 00:19 | 1266563 topcallingtroll
    topcallingtroll's picture

    On thursdays trolls get half priced drinks and double posting privileges.

    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 03:32 | 1266808 Oh regional Indian
    Oh regional Indian's picture

    Troll comments and other sake induced babble aside, I hope the fullest degree of what has hit Fukushima is clear to us all.

    Clean water may not be clean, clean air may not be clean. Not for a looooong time anymore or at least not till the earth gives a huge "shake" and spills some healing waters all over the place.

    While Fukushima is down on the ZH headline sweepstakes, it's alive and well and spewing. Worse and worse news, every day, but now, no one really counting. Millions and millions of cooling water gallons back in the ocean. No where to put it. Can't go in, cannot leave it alone.

    If we can fully internalize the extent of this disaster, I think a lot of things, like how the world might look in a year, become clearer by the day.

    The world's 2nd/3rd largest economy just dove off a cliff.



    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 07:27 | 1266955 Orly
    Orly's picture

    Way off-topic here:

    I appreciated the link to the Gaia-Sophia philosophy but the ideas still point back to the veda and the concept of Maya.

    Are you sure I should read Castaneda again?


    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 08:46 | 1267177 citta vritti
    citta vritti's picture

    of course Castaneda himself made all or most of it up and passed it off, or let it pass, for good anthropology without apology.


    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 09:54 | 1267465 Orly
    Orly's picture

    Thanks for the enlightening link.  It was always troublesome to me that an Indian shaman would so readily accomodate a stranger and divulge so many secrets to him.

    As the article says, though, he was a very good writer.  Too bad it is a fiction of his own devise.


    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:33 | 1267981 Oh regional Indian
    Oh regional Indian's picture

    Actually to me, it does not matter anymore if Don Juan was real of a figment of Castenada's imagination. Those books triggered all kinds of things for/in me. That was their idea. He had tapped into something. No doubt. And yes, he had a knack for writing grippingly.

    Anyways, onwards then... though I suggest it is all there in The teachings of a Yaqui Indian, try:



    Read through a bit. Feel free to reach me by e-mail if you feel called.

    And my advice would be to skip the Vedas, the Mahabharata and other scriptural myth and ritual.

    Vedanta is the essence of the whole thing. And it's secret is wrapped in a sound.

    You'll tell me when you hear it of course. ;-)



    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 07:33 | 1266961 Green Leader
    Green Leader's picture

    They don't see it.

    They are too worried about gold and silver.


    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 02:58 | 1266785 Michael
    Michael's picture

    Gold is like Kyptronite to Federal Reserve paper money. Silver is like Garlic to the Bernanke vampire.

    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 03:16 | 1266800 Michael
    Michael's picture

    Kings, Queens & Soup Tureens.

    Barack Obama is a soup tureen. George Soros a wanna be king is a soup tureen. Ted Turner, Bill Gates, and Opra are soup tureens. George Bush is a soup tureen. Hillary and Bill Clinton are soup tureens.  

    Understand the concept?

    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 03:51 | 1266826 Michael
    Michael's picture

    I don't know how to get it,

    Back 2 Good (Video)


    Wed, 05/11/2011 - 23:50 | 1266503 SilverDoctors
    SilverDoctors's picture

    Can NAFTA Explain the Mystery Gold Shipments Across the US/Mexican Border?


    Wed, 05/11/2011 - 23:56 | 1266509 mynhair
    mynhair's picture

    What's different over history?

    How will silver bugs prove quality at 7-11?

    Like the US is solvent?

    We need armies of Zombies we can sell Lib brains to.

    Wed, 05/11/2011 - 23:54 | 1266517 tmosley
    tmosley's picture

    Flip the coin--it rings.  Drop the coin, it has a unique sound.

    Silver is easy to assay for.  No tools required.

    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 00:28 | 1266569 dark pools of soros
    dark pools of soros's picture

    copper too

    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 01:02 | 1266632 Keri at Bankste...
    Keri at Bankster Report's picture

    Yes, and of course for silver US coins, you can just look at the date.  Silver coins really go stand out.

    Any .999 metal is very to assay by determining the density: all you need is a graduated container (something big enough to hold the item and that has detailed tick marks on it for measuring the change in water level when you add the item), a gram scale, and some water.  I recently had to test some metal to verify whether or not it was sterling (92.5% silver, 7.5% copper), and so I bought a flask and a super cool 200 gram capacity scale (that reads to 0.000, 4 significant digits) on ebay for $5---for all of it.  I think this kind of gear is good to have on hand.  You can look up the density online or just get the density from testing something you know to be solid something.

    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 05:54 | 1266895 Urban Redneck
    Urban Redneck's picture

    I prefer reloading scales- the manufacturer has a natural incentive to make the reading to four significant digits accurate, as there are life-and-death, and hence significant monetary and legal risks to cutting quality too far.  There are no $5 bargains in the factory direct market, but they cost a lot less than the downsize risk on single counterfeit gold coin.

    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 08:36 | 1267123 I did it by Occident
    I did it by Occident's picture

    Or someone could make a mint (pun intended) by making simple conductivity circuit testers.  The conductivity of a .999 coin should be easy to determine.  Of course, one has to account for temperature and other environmental "noise" to make the circuit accurate enough.

    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 01:21 | 1266654 Temporalist
    Temporalist's picture

    When that comes into play everyone will know what real silver is.  That is like asking how do you know your dollar is real...and most people think they are when they're not.

    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 01:59 | 1266698 Kali
    Kali's picture

    7-11's wont survive.  First, looted and burned to the ground.  If they survive that, their supply chain will be severely disrupted and they will have nothing to sell.

    Wed, 05/11/2011 - 23:56 | 1266518 Zing
    Zing's picture

    Wrong call.  Deflation will rule the day before hyper-inflation can set in.  Too much debt for the edifice not to implode.

    Wed, 05/11/2011 - 23:56 | 1266525 tmosley
    tmosley's picture

    lol, you just ignore 100% of the history of fiat currency.

    But then, you were an unabashed troll from the start.

    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 00:16 | 1266558 topcallingtroll
    topcallingtroll's picture

    I dont disagree with you, but i think those in control of monetary policy in the usa and japan err on the side of timidity. It would take an amazing gob of monetization, putting this recent round to shame, to cause real hyperinflation. I see the authorities trying, but with half measures that may keep us right on the.border of contraction.

    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 00:41 | 1266599 wisefool
    wisefool's picture

    Did you just espouse the peter principle. Rip van winkle and forest gump rolled into a sweet little confectionary?

    Or are you doing the slim pickens yell at the end of "How I learned to not worry and love the bomb?"

    There is a really big difference. Krugman can not end up being the hero prophet of this era.

    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 01:57 | 1266693 jeff montanye
    jeff montanye's picture

    the fiscal hose is much harder for the politicians to squirt than the purely monetary one the treserve works (also helps their friends faster and more accurately).  imo you get stagflation that propels p.m.'s much faster than non p.m. equities where the drag of higher interest rates and the "stag" part are more strongly felt.

    i don't see how this makes krugman more a hero than anyone else who said the current plan is vastly suboptimal.  to the degree k. likes the current regime he will be damned by their poor results.



    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 00:39 | 1266591 akak
    akak's picture

    The disingenuous deflationary fearmongers are always silenced by the overwhelming evidence of inflationary fiat monetary history (still batting 1.000) that gives the lie to their pathetic propaganda about the non-existent "threat" of a fiat currency deflation.

    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 04:37 | 1266858 The Navigator
    The Navigator's picture

    I recently read an old saying but forget who said it - history doesn't repeat itself but it rhymes (maybe Mark Twain).

    So this is not 1978, it's not 1929, it's not 1934, but it kinda rhymes - deflation, inflation, stagflation, fuckMeFlation, yep I think its the last.

    This time it might be a little different but the stink is the same; common people in the pyre.

    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 06:23 | 1266906 Popo
    Popo's picture

    Uh.. you're sort of right, but not really.  Historically speaking deflation is the natural state for all economies, and hyperinflation is not.    In fiat based economies, there is (as I believe you are saying) a trend for the currency towards zero.  But it is important to note that that is not the same as hyperinflation.  Hyperinflation of course, would acellerate the approach to null value, but that is by no means assured at this point in time.

    The destruction of credit is very much the trend at this time -- far, far, far more than is expansion of the money supply.   M2 tells this story quite well, and ShadowStats confirms.

    I'm agnostic on this front -- but those who are so sure that 'hyperinflation' is on the table are the ones who are exercising belief over empiricism, economic knowledge or historical perspective.

    Furthermore -- one cannot look only at the history of fiat currencies, as any currency is essentially a derivative of its underlying economy.  The Australian dollar is backed by the commodity value of exports and potential exports.  The Norwegian krone is similiarly backed by oil reserves.  

    Anyone thinking the USD is 'unbacked' is being willfully blind to the state of geopolitics.  

    To put it bluntly,  the USD is backed by the military.   While that may sound like a statistic that does not belong on a balance-sheet -- it is without question the truth.  America quite literally controls the supply of the world's oil.  

    The value is in oil.  The mechanism of extracting value from the world's oil is the USD.  And the means of enforcing that status quo is the military.

    Will this last?   Probably not.  No, the US is probably f*cked over the long term.  I fully expect a collapse will come. 

    But those who preach "history" and "hyperinflation" as if the argument is an obvious one,  and claim that the USD is 'unbacked fiat'  are the ones practicing intellectual dishonesty  (or simply not understanding why the dollar is as strong as it is right now, and not worth pennies).



    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 08:36 | 1267124 The Profit Prophet
    The Profit Prophet's picture

    This ongoing deflation - inflation/hyperinflation argument is loaded with logical fallacies, and I wish that the very intelligent people who frequent this site would realize once and for all that it is not one or the other that will rule the day - it is both! Deflation and inflation/hyperinflation are two sides of the same coin and both are occurring as we speak!!! Deflation is a natural re-balancing of a manipulated market/economy, and inflation/hyperinflation is the man-made response to this deflation of an Oligarchy choosing to retain/increase their wealth. Systemic greed and corruption that crystallizes the political power of an Oligarchy allows for the eventual total control and manipulation of all wealth producing markets. In America (and the world), this manipulation manifested itself in insanely leveraged assets and multiple layers of asset derivatives, where the underlying asset values where intentionally inflated through blind Keynesianism.  The result of this market manipulation is false growth.  Market equilibrium theory (to which I subscribe) dictates that this false GDP must then be recaptured in order for the economy to recover and become healthy again.  This creates a catch-22 for the Oligarchs who control the monetary levers and political strings.  Do you allow the economy to naturally deflate and correct (defaults and haircuts) - voluntarily choosing to lose a portion of your wealth....or do you fight the deflation with every monetary and policy tool you have - preserving/increasing your own wealth in the process and shifting the resulting debt/losses to the masses? Our current conundrum is the result of the Oligarchs choosing the latter for the last 30+ years! The natural deflation currently taking place is now so massive that it is going to take a hyperinflationary response by the Oligarchs - in their hopeless attempt to retain their wealth - to fight the deflation. The natural deflation and hyperinflationary response happen together....they are both happening as we speak.....and who knows when it will all collapse - but it will collapse! 

    So what would you do if you were a card carrying member of the power elite?

    T.E.I.N. everyone!    

    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 09:37 | 1267397 Commander Cody
    Commander Cody's picture

    Agree 100%.

    Wed, 05/11/2011 - 23:58 | 1266526 Yen Cross
    Yen Cross's picture

    Highly unlikely. They (BoJ) is being spent down. They have so much off shore manufacturing. Lots of available resources and buildable land.

    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 00:06 | 1266537 tickhound
    tickhound's picture

    is buildable land an oxymoron?  sounds funny.

    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 00:34 | 1266584 Yen Cross
    Yen Cross's picture

    Canada ,North America,Africa, South America. Sounds funny doesn't it?

    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 01:01 | 1266629 tickhound
    tickhound's picture

    Yes it does.  The answer is Canada, err... What is Canada, Alex?  Of the four, it is the only one that is not a continent.

    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 01:48 | 1266681 Yen Cross
    Yen Cross's picture

    I don't recall mentioning continents? Just GEO GRAPHICS!

    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 00:33 | 1266587 floydian slip
    floydian slip's picture

    Japans turn to hold the piss bucket whilst Bernaise watches Count de Money shower his attention.

    Bernaise = Bernake



    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 00:45 | 1266610 Yen Cross
    Yen Cross's picture

    I want to make (1) thing clear Fro S. I agree with both of you. But facts are facts. Do you want to fight facts or Capitalize on the the facts? Quit bitching and find the weaknesses!


    After wwii Japan had no intention of being Americanized. Americas guilt let them get their way. Japan has and always will have an expansionist policy. China fears a small little island nation. Think about it, and study some history.

    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 01:11 | 1266641 floydian slip
    floydian slip's picture

    You are the one that needs to study History of the World Part 1


    are you laughing yet?

    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 01:15 | 1266648 Yen Cross
    Yen Cross's picture

    I will study the thread thank you.

    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 04:39 | 1266859 Vlad Tepid
    Vlad Tepid's picture

    Ahh, you again, Mr. Cross.  Why do we keep bumping into each other?  

    American guilt? Guilt had nothing to do with it.  We needed an industrially savvy ally to counter the Soviet/communist surge in East Asia. And secondly, Japan as expansionist "always?"  They hate to leave their homeland anymore let alone delusions of conquest, financial or otherwise.  And on what do you base these supposed fears that China harbors of Japan.  China hasn't even blinked at Japan since they built the bomb. I know you're a great trader but your dubious and bull-headed assertions about history and geopolitics leave me scratching my head.

    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 05:57 | 1266900 Urban Redneck
    Urban Redneck's picture

    Between the fall of the Berlin Wall and the meltdown of Fukushima - there was a raging cold war between Japan and China for access and influence in developing and undeveloped markets, it was a very costly cold/soft war which resulted in the accumulation of huge overseas tangible asset reserves for both States. 

    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 01:04 | 1266630 legal eagle
    legal eagle's picture

    All that extra paper, bullish for origami

    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 01:10 | 1266640 New Survivalist
    New Survivalist's picture

    Do they have carnival barkers in Japan?

    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 01:10 | 1266646 floydian slip
    floydian slip's picture

    pronounced 'calniral balkels'


    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 01:18 | 1266650 Yen Cross
    Yen Cross's picture

    (Carnivorous investus)

    Thu, 05/12/2011 - 01:33 | 1266671 Peak Everything
    Peak Everything's picture

    You know there is something perversely fucked in our system when the best thing that could possibly happen to our species and planet (population reduction) is viewed as a problem.

    Are there any Japanese historians out there?

    I've always wondered how Japan with its meagre natural resources and small land base allowed its population to rise to the most unsustainable level of any country on the planet. Japan is completely fucked when global trade in food starts to unwind, as it will before too long.

    Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!