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Dylan Grice On Ignoring The Economists' Perpetuation Of The Illusion Of Control, And Instead Focusing On What We Do Know

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Sat, 09/04/2010 - 17:25 | 563950 cossack55
cossack55's picture

"discrediting the most worthless science known to man..."

I thought you were referring to Political Science.  Maybe a tie?

 

Speaking of laughs, check out The Daily Bail.com  British TV Bird and Fortune discussing CDOs, CDSs, and SIVs.  I would leave the link if I were bright enough to figure out how.

Sun, 09/05/2010 - 09:37 | 564517 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Thanx.  See, I knew it would take a scientist!

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 17:14 | 563952 RickFromGeorgetown
RickFromGeorgetown's picture

Excellent article as usual. It really is getting scary out there (you can only buy so much gold <smile>).

Have a great Labor Day weekend,

Rick

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 22:05 | 564166 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

You have hit on it, Rick.  More and more I see things in ounces of silver.  Buy that parka at the local sports shop?  Hmmm.   That's 2 ounces of silver.   Nah, I'll take the silver.   Buy a new flat screen 50 inch TV?  Nah, that's an ounce of gold -- almost.  Throw in some cycling togs and I've got the cash for the gold.   It's all in perception.  Funny how that changes over time.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 17:45 | 563973 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

The "economics" mentioned is MACRO economics.

All schools of MACRO seem to be "out of order" LOL.

If there is any good news it is on the MICRO side.  All those little micros are cutting back, paying off their debt to Pharaoh, and getting ready for harder times.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 17:56 | 563981 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

No, the Austrian school is not "out if order".

Sun, 09/05/2010 - 12:51 | 564608 chrisina
chrisina's picture

that's because you don't understand its assumptions

Austrian school is as junk as the rest

 

The fundamental praexological axiom that preferences are revealed in action is just as voodoo as the basis of neoclassical (keynesian and monetarist) economics. That you prefer a product or service at a given price doesn't mean that you wouldn't at a different price.

The logical deduction that collective action is inefficient is just circular reasoning that tend to appeal to libertarians.

Mon, 09/06/2010 - 12:50 | 565839 psychobilly
psychobilly's picture

"The logical deduction that collective action is inefficient  is just circular reasoning that tend to appeal to libertarians."

On the contrary: It is self-evident that an anthill for example is very efficient. You can really get some shit done with lots of disposable slaves. 

Mon, 09/06/2010 - 15:45 | 565901 CrockettAlmanac.com
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The logical deduction that collective action is inefficient is just circular reasoning that tend to appeal to libertarians.

Libertarians have no problem with voluntary collective action. Such is the basis for most human progress.

 

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 17:48 | 563975 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Keynesianism explained in under 30 seconds

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ij_jWDmvBDw

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 20:12 | 564091 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

thanks for that

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 18:21 | 563991 breezer1
breezer1's picture

i remember a clown who's inflated ego led him to titled positions until one day he published an oil and gas report. it was so full of bullshit he became an embarrassment to the organization and was removed, or promoted. if i had an employee who shovelled that much crap he /she would only do it once. 

anyway, it reminded me of a carson show many years ago. carson once had a guest who rode an elephant down madison avenue draped with a large banner advertising something. he did it without a permit from the city and when arrested he quickly made bail and paid a large fine when he pled guilty. of course the amount he received from the advertiser was much more. it made the prime time news.

the next guest was an economist who was really full of himself and bullshit. carson showed  that he was impressed with his knowledge when he admitted that it was all too complicated for him. thats when the elephant guy asked the economist if this wasn't following along with degroot's theory . the economist said ' yes it was'.

after the next commercial the elephant guy sat alone next to carson when he told johnney that he didn't know who this degroot fellow was but it sounded good. the economist's life changed drastically that night. we need more elephant riders.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 20:13 | 564092 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

Great story. bring on the elephant riders.

Sun, 09/05/2010 - 11:05 | 564565 snowball777
snowball777's picture

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johannes_De_Groot

Pretty sure he didn't waste his time with anything as inane as economics; some people can do real math.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 18:32 | 564000 LostWages
LostWages's picture

This time is different.  We just don't know what the difference will look like.

The mountains of debt the sovereigns issued is "insured" many times over by the CDS casino.  Yes, this time is different all right, we have taken debt levels to new highs and are able to bet against it.

When the first domino goes over, the fun begins.  Those who bet on the collapse may find difficulty collecting their winnings.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 22:11 | 564170 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

When the first domino goes over, the fun begins.  Those who bet on the collapse may find difficulty collecting their winnings.

Seems to me that the first domino has already flipped, as has the second and maybe the third.

I don't believe this baby's coming down with a crash. No, it's coming down nice and slow so we can all enjoy it.

Know anybody who lost their job? How about somebody who lost their home? How about some people whose 401k plan is so deflated that they can't retire anymore?

How about those guys living under the freeway bridge? Or the MBA who's managing a burger joint because the bank where she worked got gobbled up by the big boys?

Don't sit back and wait for the NYT or Fux News to tell us the collapse happened at 3:59 this afternoon. It's going on now. You're soaking in it.

Each of us will have a different experience, just like the highly popular 'Depression' that we look back at so nostalgically.

Some of us will do okay, while a lot of us are going to lose wealth, health and maybe even our lives. Or watch loved ones die from even more inadequate health care than they're getting now.

Prepare for it the best you can. Figure out how your family is going to live with a lower profile if gasoline hits $10 a gallon, the county triples your property tax to make up for nobody else paying theirs, intermittent deliveries to your favorite food store because the diesel is $12 a gallon and truck drivers can't afford to drive.

Collapse is a process, not an event. But there WILL be a lot of nasty events that will figure prominently for their entertainment value as the tent comes down.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 23:11 | 564245 Hulk
Hulk's picture

You have accurately described things so far, but as GL has described, the end (hyperinflation) could come fast. be prepared to pick up assets when there is blood in the streets...

Sun, 09/05/2010 - 14:45 | 564862 grunion
grunion's picture

Some tell me that relates to buzzards.

I have always found that statement greedy and elitist. Gee, I wonder why?

Sun, 09/05/2010 - 15:51 | 564948 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Its just reality grunion, buzzards exist for good reason.

BTW, if GL's scenario occurs, I'll be buying up valuable pasture land, adding to our already existing pasture farm. Folks will benefit by a much higher quality of food....which is in high demand at this time

Sun, 09/05/2010 - 09:11 | 564502 Landrew
Landrew's picture

How do I love thee, let me count the ways.

1. Understanding this process isn't signaled by a point in time.

2. Energy effects everything.

3. There is hope if you prepare.

4. Still finding humor in life:)

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 18:33 | 564001 AssFire
AssFire's picture

Soon we will no longer have the luxury of meddling in other nation's affairs.

 

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 19:37 | 564060 knukles
knukles's picture

Great.  Just fucking great.
So instead of meddling in other nations affairs, they'll spend full time meddling in our own. 
Now that's a peachy, uplifting, altruistic, noble vision if I've ever seen one. 
Where do we move?

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 22:09 | 564168 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Where do we move?

To the country that we last stopped dicking with.  They will prosper.

We will have milked them dry so the only way to go will be up.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 22:21 | 564186 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

Where do we move?

 

To the country that we last stopped dicking with.  They will prosper.

We will have milked them dry so the only way to go will be up.

If memory serves, correctly, that would be "The Shores of Tripoli."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Barbary_War

So this means an exodus to Morocco to avoid the blowback? Damn, and I thought Utah sucked, but Morocco? Ewwwww!

Sun, 09/05/2010 - 00:22 | 564300 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I guess it becomes, "Anywhere but here", Doc.

Sun, 09/05/2010 - 08:44 | 564486 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Beautiful!

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 18:58 | 564023 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

'Owners of a Chinese Restaurant in Salem Or are nearly BK, Quiznos next door closed 6 months ago... Almost all patrons were from the ranks of 'public unionized employees', in public buildings across the street and in surrounding area.'...Mish missed the real point here in his blog.

The cutbacks in spending in the private sector are coming from all segments of the employeed and the unemployeed.

The public sector workforce in Salem has not seen major cuts in their ranks. So, what is wrong with biz at the small restaurants?

A topic that is rarely discussed by 'economists'...fear created by the indecision of economists and the Fed. Fear of new fiscal policy decisions that might come without warning.

The economists have accomplished one thing. They have scared the crap out of ordinary people. Fear of the unknown future decisions by the Fed and by fiscal policy is frightening the people (the would be consumers). People that know nothing about economics sense that the clowns in charge of this circus don't have a clue what they are doing...except stealing from the poor to bouy the wealthy.

Gold... The last retreat to safety in a world of economists gone mad. 

 

Sun, 09/05/2010 - 15:48 | 564947 VeloSpade
VeloSpade's picture

I went to get a haircut the other day.  The normal place I go down the street seemed kind of busy.  I didn't feel like waiting so I ventured off to the other side of town (that I had not seen in a couple years) in search of another barber.  I drove into 3 different shopping plaza's before finding a place to get my haircut.  Two of the three were 90% vacant, while the other about a 1/3 full.  The neighboring mall lost one of it's major anchor department stores and appears to have lost about 40% of its other stores.  Ghost Town USA, coming soon to a city near you?

Mon, 09/06/2010 - 06:16 | 565565 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

You want a haircut?

Buy bonds!

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 19:16 | 564038 Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek's picture

On top of the immense hubris of economists and those who completely trust them one often finds amazing ignorance.

Geithner who received an M.A. in International Economics is quoted in the most recent issue of The New Republic as saying, during a phone call with representatives of Germany, who were refusing to drop austerity plans in favor of a stimulus spend-a-rama, that the germans sounded "a little bit like Hoover".

That Hoover ran unprecedented peace time deficits and interfered massively in the market, including signing the infamous Smoot-Hawley tariff bill, is , apparently, unknown to Turbo Tax Timmy, holder of an M.A. in international economics.

Why bother with knowledge when you can just go straight to pretensions, eh Timmy?

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 19:47 | 564072 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Geithner's time and the interests of the USA would be better served if he had dialed a 1-900 number. 

Sun, 09/05/2010 - 08:17 | 564471 fajensen
fajensen's picture

Turbo Tax Timmy, holder of an M.A. in international economics.

Maybe he got it from a mail order university?

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 19:41 | 564066 knukles
knukles's picture

Guys, it's not the economists who're responsible for this nightmare.  Economists merely advise.  Politicians debate, consider, weigh evidence and as mature, logical and responsible elected representatives, legislate in the best interests of thier populace.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 19:54 | 564076 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Yes in is the economists who are responsable, the politicians expect that the economists actually have something right.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 20:48 | 564118 jm
jm's picture

The bottom line is this.  In any social construction, all predictions fail given enough time.  The purveyors of the bullshit known as economic theory, Keynesian or Austrian or whatever, that do not acknowledge the limits of the theory are the problem.  If there is no honesty about the car lot full of bright shiny Yugos, the theories become just pissing contests concealed in jargon. 

The dishonesty makes it often about self-serving lying and delusion.  There are some who make fanatics out of themselves and others.  There are some that supply advice that justifies the status quo; at worst these get a cut of the action by justifying predator behavior on the governed.  On the other side of the issue is a fragmentation of alternative theories designed to enable a pack of wannabee replacements that at best want to “fix” everything.  At worst these want to impose a fanatical vision on the world and call it love of humanity.

 

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 23:45 | 564270 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

bullshit known as economic theory, Keynesian or Austrian

 

You are lucky you said that in cyber space because if you didn't, I would have punched you out.

Don't ever equate keynesianism with Austrain economics again.

Sun, 09/05/2010 - 08:14 | 564470 jm
jm's picture

This is the fanaticism I am talking about.

Sun, 09/05/2010 - 11:12 | 564574 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

+100

Sun, 09/05/2010 - 13:12 | 564691 chrisina
chrisina's picture

try to use your brain instad of your fists.

 

It's amazing that so many anti-social libetarians who hate government action equate the failure of keynesianism with the validation of such junk science as austrian economics

Sun, 09/05/2010 - 01:13 | 564337 murray
murray's picture

man, i junked you because this does not make sense.

 

austrian economic theory does not seek any imposition on human behavior but rather posits that a market-determined price is always the optimal regulator.

 

 

Sun, 09/05/2010 - 08:36 | 564479 jm
jm's picture

People learn and adapt. Making predictions about people or how their institutions behave given uncertain conditions will ultimately become wrong.  "Market determined" prices are dependent upon human legislated laws, instituitions that interpret and enforce those laws, and interplay between people playing by the rules and those that break the rules.   

That is just what runs in the background.  People and even Goldman Sachs always have limited information about the world, and they can interpret the information incorrectly for long periods of time.  Many are too busy saying how the world should be without understanding how one can practically get there from here.  This is the imposition I am talking about.  It is not far from Karl Marx when it becomes like evangelism. 

I'm not ripping any particular theory over another, although some are better than others. Everyone theorizes to some degree... it's how we think.  Just saying direct observation with all its complications is primary.

Sun, 09/05/2010 - 11:14 | 564579 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

I'm not ripping any particular theory over another, although some are better than others.

The one that I think deserves a good ripping is "game theory".

Sun, 09/05/2010 - 15:48 | 564949 jm
jm's picture

Just as with game theory, so with everything.  One counterexample blows the whole thing up.  Freedom House ranks Mali as a free libertarian society.  And yet the citizens remain among the poorest in the world, even for the "developing" world.

It is good that Mali has freedom.  Freedom is a desirable end in itself; Mali also has a long history of being a major center for Islamic scholarship in the Middle Ages.

That doesn't make laissez faire always work.

Mon, 09/06/2010 - 13:33 | 565961 psychobilly
psychobilly's picture

"Freedom House ranks Mali as a free libertarian society."

Nonsense.  I seriously doubt you can even find the word "libertarian" anywhere in Freedom House's literature.

Beware of missionaries from the United States selling "freedom and democracy."  Even if done with the best of intentions (cough, bullshit, cough), enfranchising the uncivilized majority rarely if ever leads in practice to more liberty.

Mon, 09/06/2010 - 17:10 | 566248 ATTILA THE WIMP
ATTILA THE WIMP's picture

Freedom House is a CIA front.

Sun, 09/05/2010 - 13:18 | 564699 chrisina
chrisina's picture

and how do you show that market-determined price is the optimal regulator?

 

circular reasoning trying to validate absolute moral philosophy disguised as opposition to collective action... 

Sun, 09/05/2010 - 08:57 | 564492 RichyRoo
RichyRoo's picture

makes sense to me, interesting how just by criticising Austrian economics you recieved a threat of violence. I understand that illustrates your point perfectly. I was thinking about these topics last night, its funny how coincidences like that happen :)

Sun, 09/05/2010 - 14:53 | 564877 grunion
grunion's picture

I knew it! Complete congressional failure to do due diligence...lazy, lazy, lazy.

 

Easy now Bronco...

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 22:33 | 564196 Bazza McKenzie
Bazza McKenzie's picture

Yes, the primary problem is with politicians.  Most cannot abide the idea that the best thing they can do for the economy is get out of the way (maybe like the founders indicated in the constitution they drafted) and let people look after their lives and their business.

Most politicians have to insist they benefit society by continuously tinkering with it.  Otherwise how would they justify their existence, pay, perks and power and more importantly justify setting the rules to buy votes to get into office and stay there.

If that is the disposition of politicians, any economist who comes and tells them they need to keep their hands off will have few political patrons, no public outlets in the politically aligned mass media, no university appointments.

I appreciate this means most economists who ply their trade in offering public policy advice are prostitutes, but if the pay is good enough, there are always prostitutes in any field (remarkably like the AGW scam, where the advocates are mainly on the public payroll and the scientific critics are retired or amateurs [not necessarily in terms of knowledge and analysis]).

But since it is the politicians, political parties and aligned media who are paying (usually with the taxpayers' money) for advice, they are always going to find/create someone who will give the advice they want.

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