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Each Eurozone Household Will Guarantee €1,450 Of Greek Debt By 2014

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Open Europe has released a paper titled "Abandon Ship: Time to stop bailing out Greece?" which recaps all the salient points well-known to everyone on why continuing to bailout Greece is the worst possible decision available to Europe, yet which will come over and over simply to prevent the European banking oligarchy from encountering an Event of Actual Loss (as defined by Encyclopedia Britannica). "Considering Greece’s poor growth prospects and increasing debt burden, the country is likely to default within the next few years, even if it gets some breathing space through a second bail-out. EU leaders should instead be planning for how such a default could be managed in as orderly a manner possible." Yet the main reason why European taxpayers should be concerned about the happenings in Athens, which are nothing but the latest in a now endless series of taxpayer to banker capital transfers, is that as Open Europe says by 2014, almost two-thirds of Greek debt will be taxpayer-owned! "via the bail-outs, so-called official sector (taxpayer-backed) loans are gradually replacing private sector loans. We estimate that today each household in the eurozone underwrites €535 in Greek debt (through loan guarantees). However, by 2014 and following a second bailout, this will have increased to a staggering €1,450 per household. The cost to European taxpayers of what looks like an inevitable Greek default will therefore  increase radically in the next few years, making a second bail-out far more contentious than any of the previous eurozone rescue packages." Open Europe economic analyst Raoul Ruparel added: "“A second Greek bail-out is almost certain to result in outright losses for taxpayers further down the road because, even with the help of additional money, Greece remains likely to default within the next few years. Another bailout will also increase the cost of a Greek default, transferring a far bigger chunk of the burden from private investors to taxpayers....Although the uncertainty associated with such an exercise shouldn’t be underestimated, EU leaders should plan for a full, orderly restructuring, which would deal with Greece’s massive debt burden, as soon as possible. However, an honest discussion also needs to be had about whether Greece can realistically remain within the eurozone." But what "honesty" is possible when the only policy is to extend and pretend until it all finally comes crashing down?

Executive summary:

“It will not be the case that the south will get the so-called wealthy states to pay. Because then Europe would fall apart. There is a ‘no bail out rule’, which means that if one state by its own making increases its deficits, then neither the community nor any member states is obliged to help this state”

- Horst Koehler, former German Finance Secretary, April 19921

  • EU member states have in total amassed quantifiable exposure to Greece of €311bn (via their banking sectors, the bail-out packages and the ECB’s liquidity programme). France and Germany have exposure of €82bn and €84bn respectively, while the UK only has €10.35bn exposure – although this figure is misleadingly low, as Britain’s huge exposure to other European banks leaves it vulnerable to any escalation of the crisis in Greece through indirect exposure and undermined market confidence.
  • On the surface, the interconnectivity of Europe’s economies and banking sector may seem like an argument in favour of another bail-out. In a best case scenario, to carry Greece over until 2014 a second bail-out would have to cover a funding gap of at least €122 billion, in addition to the money the country is already receiving from its first rescue package. This assumes a scenario in which Greece can make good on its deficit targets and privatisation commitments. However, it is far from clear that Greece will meet these targets, not least given domestic resistance to more austerity measures. Therefore, the country’s funding gap leading up to 2014 could well be in the area of €166bn, potentially requiring Greece to make a third request for external aid.
  • Despite a second Greek bail-out being EU leaders’ preferred option, it is only likely to increase the economic and political cost of the eurozone crisis. No country in modern economic history has faced similar debt levels to those of Greece – a debt-to-GDP ratio above 150% - and avoided a default. Even with the help of a second bail-out and a debt rollover, Greece is still likely to default within the next few years, as the country’s poor growth prospects and growing debt burden mean that it will be unable to fund itself post-2014.
  • It is therefore better for Greece to restructure its debt as soon as possible. Then an honest discussion needs to be had about whether the country can realistically stay inside the eurozone. A restructuring of Greek debt would require the eurozone to enter unchartered territory – and it is impossible to fully identify all the consequences of such a move. However, these doubts will very much remain even under a second bail-out – the various uncertainties associated with the bail-out packages and attached conditions mean that the threat of an eventual default will not go away in any case.
  • The cost of restructuring will also increase with time, as Greece’s debt burden will only rise over the next few years. To bring down Greece’s debt to sustainable levels today, half of it would need to be written off. In 2014, two-thirds of Greece’s debt will need to be written off to have the same effect, meaning a radical increase in the cost to creditors.
  • Unfortunately, this is a debt crisis and someone will have to take losses. We estimate that the first round effects of a 50% write down on Greece’s debt would

Full report:

greece2ndbailout

 

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Tue, 06/21/2011 - 07:55 | 1388368 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

As guaranteeing in this US world order is what it is, that is nothing compelling, well, they could push the bar to a one million guarantee level without making a change. 

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 08:31 | 1388447 IBelieveInMagic
IBelieveInMagic's picture

Pffft. In other news Oregon city discards 8 million gallons of water from reservoir because a man pissed in it! We apparently live in a world of unlimited resources.

http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/index.ssf/2011/06/man_caught_urinatin...

 

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 07:56 | 1388370 oogs66
oogs66's picture

by the end, how much will each German and French household have lent to people in Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and Greece?  Just so banks stocks don't get wiped out?

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 08:02 | 1388380 absinthejo
absinthejo's picture

Next flight for Reykjavik?

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 08:05 | 1388383 Bob
Bob's picture

A "staggering 1,450 per household"?  That's pocket change around here. 

And it's all "to bail out Greece"?  Let's get real--we know who is really getting bailed out. 

 

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 08:09 | 1388393 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Tyler makes it sound very reasonable and compelling.

ACT NOW AND YOUR COST IS ONLY 1,450 EUROS PER HOUSEHOLD!  THAT'S RIGHT! AND IF YOU CALL RIGHT NOW WE WILL EVEN THROW IN AN ASS REAMING FOR FREE, JUST PAY SHIPPING AND HANDLING!

WE CANNOT GUARANTEE THIS PRICE FOR LONG, SO HURRY!

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 08:09 | 1388404 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

Wait...there's more.......for just 2000 Euros we'll throw in Ireland, Spain, Italy and Portugal.........Call Now

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 08:57 | 1388508 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Staggering E1,450 per household? Chump change compared to staggering $465,000 per US 'household' debt due to these bailouts to get us back to scratching our heads and saying 'Eh, whadaya think....another bailout'?

Wed, 06/22/2011 - 01:05 | 1391006 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Sheeit, my Household budget nets out about that much when converted from Euro ti USD.

If Greece is that cheap, it almost makes me consider moving there.

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 08:02 | 1388385 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

Duh:  it aint just the Eurozone that's paying; where does everyone think the covert FED trillions went.  The American portion of the bill is probably larger.

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 08:08 | 1388392 JustACitizen
JustACitizen's picture

Same old...same old...

You loaned out money - to a deadbeat - you take your losses - learn from the mistake and move on...

Extend and pretend has accomplished nothing to date - other than guaranteeing that the crash will be even worse in the future.

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 09:04 | 1388532 The Butchers Dog
The Butchers Dog's picture

Is there any other instance where a soverign nation cannot print to cover?  (Obviously to a point of ccy collapse) but still, they can't even inflate it away like everyone else is currently doing.

My overly simplistic view:

Politician promises early retirement & easy street life - Voter falls for it (dupe) & now feels entitled.  Bond  buyer believes soverign backed on fiat currency (dupe) & now wants paid P&I (or suitable tangible asset) (btw = nice racket - buy fiat lay claim on national tangibles.)

Politician sees risks to the money system, but recognizes Productive Voters reluctance to pay for Lazy voters life of ease.

Same issue in every country where worker:retiree ratio is too narrow.

So, all the dupes are at the table negotiating about how to save face.... This is how wars are started and whoever pays the tab will want some collateral in return.  So, a possible option we end up with a bailout by Germany (white knight) to get the bankers (hostile takeover) out of the equasion? The only other option being new Euro Currencies (North & South), so PIIGS can inflate some of the tab away.

Just thinking out loud - any other interresting options??

 

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 09:19 | 1388600 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

This is how wars are started

It's really difficult to imagine a war starting between Greece and Germany, Germany and France, or any other European combination for the simple reason that their militaries are small. What kind of war could they fight and for how long? NATO was running out of ammo in Libya without the U.S. of A. after just a few days. The run-up to WWI was different because in those days all of the countries were building up their militaries as fast as they could. Germany and France could mobilize millions of men in the space of two weeks. Nowadays, all those countries depend on the U.S. military for protection. It's a completely different situation.

Wed, 06/22/2011 - 01:03 | 1391008 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

I gave 5 bucks to a bum once. Only to be savaged by my classmates who knew better. That bum said yahoo! No more crappy thunderbird, let's go meet Jack.

II was too young to grasp the full meaning for a few years.

Now decades later I read about people who pan handle for a living and live VERY well indeed.

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 08:09 | 1388396 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Peanuts when you consider the satisfaction received from helping the banker class. Plus Europe will find a way to push the burden onto american taxpayers eventually. Win/win.

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 08:10 | 1388400 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Even now, over at the banker directed BlowHorn [CNBC], the fishing expedition has commenced, floating the idea that the Federal Reserve Bank could take Greek debt as collateral for US dollar backed loans.

So cheer up, Eurozone.  The Bernank is testing the waters to see if Average Joe will be comfortable bailing out insolvent Eurobanks.

 

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 08:36 | 1388457 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Greeks broke with no way out? Just trade that debt! Its very valuable!

Endless barrels of emptiness to stuff more printed up US $ LOLlars and call it 'interest bearing'. What a load of crap.

Dont worry though, no 'waters testing' needed as the avg american dummy doesnt care as long as American Idle is still on.

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 08:11 | 1388401 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the banks are doing a fine job.

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 08:07 | 1388402 TopOnePercent
TopOnePercent's picture

Notice that there is a beginning and and end to pseudo government guaranteed debt. ie FNMA and FRE in the US.

 

Seeing how Europe is older, big brother should know better.

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 08:17 | 1388412 CactusLand
CactusLand's picture

And the question no one ever asks, where did the money come from to lend to the Greeks?  Was it deposits of hard working Europeans?  I think not, digital play money, this article explains it.   http://www.thecactusland.com/2011/06/bankers-fools.html#more

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 08:20 | 1388424 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

But of course. But this wont get through here. People in here want to stick to the US tax payer money mantra.

Watch how US citizens will make it sound that it is their US tax payer hard earned money that is going to be involved in this mess.

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 09:30 | 1388644 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Interesting question. The real wealth has always been "stuff" - food, property, lumber, metals, machinery, etc. Paper money is just means to buy and trade the other stuff. Printing money has never increased wealth, just transferred it (or diluted it) from one group to another.

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 08:15 | 1388417 kaiten
kaiten's picture

That´s great, next time Im going on holiday to Greece I wont have to pay for it :)

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 08:20 | 1388422 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Auntie Angela on the wires again. At the same time she and the other fraudulent politicians are showeling hundreads of billions of tax payer confetti to the bankrupt peripherals in order to bail out the banks and making the greek debt situation even worse she "demands" this:

06-21 07:59: German chancellor Merkel says Greece must reduce debt, parliament needs to make decisions, political will present in Greece to take measures EU logic def is in it's own class. Timmay must soon start to think new ways to rob americans if he wants to keep his title as the head of the global ponzi.EU is catching fast...
Tue, 06/21/2011 - 09:33 | 1388657 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Why does Merkel bother? She is so pathetic and wishy-washy, she makes U.S. politicians seem statesmenlike in comparison. Now she's talking tough after getting on her knees to Sarkozy a few days ago? She should go out in a blaze of glory. She's dead-woman-walking politically anyway. It would be awesome if she would hold a press conference and spend 10 minutes telling her German constituents the truth.

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 08:22 | 1388427 johnnymustardseed
johnnymustardseed's picture

That is nothing, each US household owes $546,000. Catch up to that Europe.

http://thenationaldebtcrisis.com/each-american-household-saddled-with-government-debt/

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 08:43 | 1388470 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Exactly Johnny, in other words total slavery, and americans have no clue as they sit eating their Starbucks muffins and mainlining mocha latte enemas.

I dont even see why all the games today, americans will never do anything. Hell its like putting on a ghillie suit and using a long range custom sniper rifle from 1,000 meters, to shoot a rabbit in a chicken wire hutch.

Wed, 06/22/2011 - 01:05 | 1391014 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Rabbit meat in some markets will be cheaper than the round you are about to send down range.

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 08:19 | 1388429 Greeny
Greeny's picture

===================================
As of June 1, 2011, the official debt of the United States government is $14.3 trillion ($14,344,655,966,314).[1] This amounts to:

• $46,415 for every person living in the U.S.[2]
• $122,043 for every household in the U.S.[3]
• $305,107 for every U.S. household that pays more in federal taxes than they receive in benefits from the federal government[4]
===================================

Compare that to Greece. :)

Wed, 06/22/2011 - 01:11 | 1391019 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Look at Illionis. Then look at Greece.

The US Government sprays money like a hormone driven love sick teenager and none of the States have benefited much from it.

However a Foreign Country is our biggest priorty. Disgusting.

One day this will all stop. And when it does it's going to hurt.

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 08:26 | 1388432 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

The Irish can handle hit - thats pocket change for such strong debt mules or maybe a straw is a better analogy............

What pisses me off is that nobody is really asking why the west has imploded.

its been staring us in the face for 40 years or more - a concerted effort at deindustialisation by the Venetian banks.

They started punching holes in the bucket during the late 1960s - it cannot be refilled , to much engineering and industrial expertise has been lost - all we can do now is suck our thumbs.

Thats about it  - they have won !

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 08:22 | 1388434 willien1derland
willien1derland's picture

G-Pap inspires confidence - anyone who can blatantly lie without regard to consequences is the kinda guy you can 'BELIEVE IN',hmmm sounds familiar?

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 08:29 | 1388440 casey13
casey13's picture

The derivative domino guarantees bailouts forever. No party can be allowed to fail unless they are first removed from the chain.

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 08:32 | 1388449 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

And here's Timmah on Spain, hahahahahaa!

More credibility with its own people? WTF? Hahahaa! If big protests all over Spain AGAINST the gubbermint and its policies mean "earning credibility" the Timmayy is spot on.

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 08:49 | 1388497 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Hell yea all is well! I mean, its all totaly bankrupt, but better than expected! Little Timmah has discovered the Spanish people have new-found credibility, hell yea its a party! Fuck bankruptcy and unrepayable debt and poverty, the people are lovin it!!

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 08:32 | 1388450 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Anyone else just slightly amused that little ol Greece has the world by the balls?

I mean this clusterfuck of a country, that has no hope in hell of paying back its first bailout is now going to get a second. $230B in bailout funds in 2 years on what a gdp of $350B. Why? Because someone whispered LEH2.0

This is insane.

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 08:47 | 1388490 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oh yea Lizzy, what makes me laugh is all these headlines with 'By 2014, blah blah'...when theyre talking 2 or 3 years out, it will actually take place within 30 days or so.

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 08:45 | 1388483 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

No one has anyone by the balls, this is just the microcosm du-jour, and it also doesnt go on forever. This is just ramping up into the next phase, all out world war.

No, the banksters have not discovered a new miracle, 'lets just bail out daily forever' because that has an inverse negative of driving prices beyond anyones reach. People cant afford food, at some point soon society snaps. They dont give a shit about a 'G-Pap' in fact 99% of americans never heard of him and cant speak one sentence about a 'Eurozone' or a CDO or an algorithm. 

Its all goin down, way sooner than most imagine.

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 08:56 | 1388507 G-R-U-N-T
G-R-U-N-T's picture

The people to it's EU leadership lovers....

"The Masochism Tango"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VR3VpvkAd0E

 

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 08:59 | 1388529 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

 ''Zero Euro Zone'' The Big Z-EZ ...sealing of the global NWO Debt Beast. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HTgKgQ831o&feature=channel_video_title

 

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 09:31 | 1388646 Wolf in the Wilds
Wolf in the Wilds's picture

And if the math doesn't convince you, go to

http://sturdyblog.wordpress.com/2011/06/18/democracy-vs-mythology-the-ba...

It shows a breakdown on what is the myths surrounding Greek economics and social facts.  And it shows why Memorandum 2 is a death sentence for Greece.

And spread the word.

 

 

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 09:59 | 1388769 Jim B
Jim B's picture

Save the reckless investment banks at any cost.... Bail out away!

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 10:55 | 1388946 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

So fucking sick of this system where the banking cartel and their corrupt regime of politicians around the world continue to prey upon the people-- it's not what life is supposed to be about and it doesn't lead to a prosperous economy of any kind for everybody else. Yet we sit here and take it day in and day out-- fucking pathetic.

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 12:44 | 1389312 JR
JR's picture

IMF? “…think independently, it may regain credibility?”

Yes, a credible tyrant; an “independent” dominator of parliaments; a collector of tribute; a banker master of a new race of slaves…from Munich to Minneapolis.  Long live our “independent” hardworking sovereign IMF dear leader.

For at last the world has a lender-of-last-resort, a menacing Fed for the world, and its name is the IMF. The intellectual inspiration of the new regime is no less than John Maynard Keynes.

The Fed and the IMF were orchestrated as a worldwide scheme whereby taxpayers would be required to pick up the international banker cartel’s inevitable losses. 

The name of the game is Bailout.

Tue, 06/21/2011 - 14:22 | 1389644 Bob
Bob's picture

Brilliantly succint, JR. 

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