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I usually take Robert Peston with a pinch of salt. But hat-tip to him. His latest article is a must read for those who want the big picture on eurozone funding risks:
"Well, I've taken the annual average for a country's deficit over the period 2009 to 2011 (as per the IMF's figures) and then added the maximum repayment in a single year faced by that country.
What this should show is the vulnerability to investors losing their appetite to lend - and should also identify the year of greatest susceptibility to a liquidity crisis.
The results are perhaps not quite what you would expect.
Within the European Union, Greece (predictably) comes top of the list for annual financing requirement - with the need to raise 23.2% of GDP in 2012.
Second place however may surprise you: it's Belgium, with a 19.3% financing requirement this year.
Third is Spain, with the need to raise debt equivalent to 19.2% of GDP in 2011.
Fourth: France, an 18.9 financing requirement per cent this year, because debt equivalent to 11.2% of GDP is due for repayment.
Fifth: Italy, with a refinancing requirement of 18.8% of GDP this year and not much less next year.
Sixth: Portugal, whose peak refinancing requirement would be 18.6% (in 2011).
Germany looks pretty sound on this measure, with a peak financing requirement of 15.4% next year.
But here's what I thought was extraordinary. Ireland, despite its huge current deficit, has a peak financing requirement of 14.3%, because so little of its existing debt is coming up for repayment."
Those ECB rates will be 1% or less for a long time to come.
The whole article is an excellent read:
Anyone here know the figure for the US?
#EDIT# - Pesto quotes 25%, worse than anyone in Europe.
This 1% is perfect for some EU countries (ITA, SPA) and horrible for others where they actually save money (GER, FRA).
The EURO breakout I suggested yesterday, has made its move ...
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