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Eclectica Fund August Commentary
"Not withstanding, of course, a tapped out private sector, lingering high levels of unemployment, capacity utilisation levels which never rally sufficiently to raise industry profitability, a speculative orgy in China which is likely to burst at some indeterminate moment and the complete uselessness of fundamentals in determining turning points."
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6 months ago:
The problem is everyone here has to sell financial products and as soon as you say you are pessimistic, or bearish, or God forbid you say sell, someone from the hierarchy comes down and tells you to shut up.
http://anonymousmonetarist.blogspot.com/2009/02/blar-allt-bhonnaich-hendry-style.html
'You can tell the age of a building in China by counting the layers of pollution that the smog generates', goes up on the board
If in doubt give the dollar a clout and everything is coming up green again.
Dollar now falling apart at the seams.
what just happened? strange action.
Who knows, but it happens everytime the stock market or oil comes under pressure and looks like rolling over.
For me these markets now have zero integrity. I no longer know what they represent with the heavy hand of governement all over them. I guess they will do whatever it takes and they have a printing press too!
Nice rally to positive territory on no news whatsoever. I think this classic theme song is appropriate: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzlG28B-R8Y
how do you trade those australian interest options?
research caps, floors, and swaptions.
By the time you read about it in a hedge fund newsletter posted on a widely read blog, you're not "trading" you're now the sucker at the table. You're the meat.
Believe me, once you read about it, the best chance has passed by. Chasing stock "tips" is the most effective way to lose money short of throwing it into the street -- which you can do for no transaction fees.
I do quite enjoy the commentary in the newsletter for no other reason than the "we're not chasing this insane market!" is the justification for a 2 and 20 that can't beat a Vanguard index fund.
It depends. Sometimes the "smart money" is way early, and you can buy in at a better price after them. But you need to be able to do your own analysis to know if you are buying it at a good price. Or getting screwed.
Hendry changes stance so many times it is quite frankly embarrassing for him. IS ECLECTIA AM THE SINGLE MOST DANGEROUS PLACE TO PUT YOUR MONEY?
W T F ? Details, if you please.
I don't feel like he has changed his viewpoints much, at least recently (last year or so). He has been and remains firmly in the deflation camp. Maybe he changes his opinion on which are the best trades to reflect that overall theme, but I wouldn't say he is all over the place
"We recently purchased the right, but not the obligation, to receive a rate of 2.5% on one year money starting in two years time."
Here he is referring to a swap in the British interest-rates market.
Could a similar strategy be carried out using something more widely traded?
Also he speaks of a swap in Australian interest rates.
"the market believes that in two years time the authorities will have to raise rates to 6%. I say, bring it on.
If on the other hand they remain at 3% then we make 5x our money. .....I could imagine that the monetary authorities might even reduce rates to British or European levels; the pay-off would be at least 25x."
What would be the best way to replicate something like that trade without having access to swaps?
Thanks....
Actually, it's:
Women glow and men chunder...the local traditional custom of puking from over consumption of alcohol. :D
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