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Economic Confidence Slide Accelerates
The latest economic confidence numbers out of Investors Business Daily and TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. As expected, reality always catch up with fiction.
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CHICAGO, July 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve may need to consider highly unorthodox measures to boost the economy if a "liquidity trap" drags on, said Paul McCulley, managing director of the giant bond firm PIMCO.
In a newsletter posted on Tuesday, McCulley said the Fed should have a plan in mind "if and when" the U.S. economy seemed set to languish in a way similar to Japan's so-called "lost decade." of the 1990s.
http://tinyurl.com/ls5djj
Ya think Paul? I can hardly wait to see what the plan is.
If the plan is spending more taxpayer monies it won't work.
Until the outrage that should be being expressed by the citizenry/taxpayers is felt/expressed by more than just the folks here (and a few select other blogs/web sites), what we are experiencing is Jonestown, writ large. Way too many people still drinking the Kool-Aid, heads firmly in the sand.
Obviously, no GS employees participated in this survey.
Historically, recessions that co-incident with high deflationary pressure last much longer than average recessions (1893, 1930, 1991 Japan, etc). I fear of what might happen, when people lose confidence in the fast recovery punchline they are subjected into. Huge negative sentiment due to disbelieve could make this slow down last much longer and be much more painful than it would be otherwise without positive or negative exaggerations.
Unless I am blind - a possibility from all the FC beatigns I have take - I do not see this info "prominently" poste at CNBS or Bloomberg for that matter. If can be foubd on CNBS if searched for - TechoMetrica for example.
Not surprising as info like this kills the green shoot buzz.
Pete
And when exactly do these churls plan to revolt?
Oi, Cornelius or other insighted currency folks...whats up with the crickets in currencyland today?
Nothin is budging but CAD is up big on the $, while oil is down for the day (which is weird since we get the vast bulk of our oil from the canooks). On the road so I can't do my own digging, but the superficial look at the markets today be hella funky.
Risk trades were on again today, sans the EUR (they had issues talking points today). Regarding the Loony, CAD officials have been out vocalizing their strong economic numbers and confidence going forward. I don't blame them; CAD is what I want to own going forward, in the medium-long term. Better than the AUD, I think - they don't really have the China powderkeg situation to the extreme.
Commodities have rallied big the last two days, but oil is trading completely on its own (not off USD or risk trades). In fact, they have rallied enough now that I just closed my long CAD/JPY and went to short GBP/JPY for now.
And, BOOM, Australian May leading economic index comes out at -3.9% (Y/Y). Kind of makes me wish I had going short AUY/JPY instead, but oh well - see how this turns out.
Take a look at this and tell my why anyone would have any confidence.
http://www.bizzyblog.com/2009/07/13/this-is-what-going-galt-and-obamas-induced-uncertainly-have-led-to/
BHP calling the top of the Nickel recovery? They are looking to sell their Ravensthorpe mine for around AUD$1 billion. (No word yet if C will be lead financer)
http://www.afr.com/home/login.aspx?EDP://20090715000031345359§ion=in...
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/nickel_historical_large.html