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Economic Deterioration Continues: Initial Claims And GDP Revision Both Miss
Initial jobless claims come in at 460,000, on expectations of 455,000, down slightly from a revised last week number of 474,000. This number is indicative of a general Nonfarm Payroll deterioration, as a reduction in the unemployment rate needs initial claims to be below 400k. This further confirms that the Fed is on some alternative planet when it comest to making economic projections, as recently quantified by ConvergEx: "According to the minutes from its latest Federal
Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in April, the Fed predicts
unemployment will fall to 9.3% this year followed by 8.2% in 2011. In order to reach these projections, by our calculations, the
economy will need to add 385,000 jobs each month from now through
December 2010 and 323,000 each month from now through December 2011.
These already seemingly high numbers appear even more extraordinary
when taking the government’s temporary hiring of census workers out of
the equation. Also, in the 3 months since the FOMC’s prior meeting,
unemployment projections became more optimistic: The average expected
unemployment rate for this year dropped 0.3 percentage points from 9.6%
to 9.3%." With every month that the economy keeps not adding the number of needed people to hit the target rate, the back end just gets heavier, thus making the attainment of the Fed's expectations ludicrious.Also today, the revised GDP number of 3.0% came in, well below both estimates (3.4%, and 3.7% by Goldman Sachs as pointed out two days ago), and below the initial read of 3.2%. Time to get those QE2.0 printers ready.
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Leisman, incredulously: "No, these numbers are wrong. They must be wrong"
Lulz. I would need therapy if I watched that misfit daily. Lies-man, when you read this, please know that we all know that you were part and parcel of a Soviet-style propaganda operation. You are akin to Jacob the Liar. May you carry that with you all the rest of your days.
They are wrong.
They are much worse.
+1 lol
and the PPT team has already entered the RALLY button today...
You know what! We'll send the market down a bit tomorrow. Happy now?
That was about next weeks jobs numbers...apparently economists are looking for 425k. Lies Man almost had a heart attack when he looked that number up as clearly its not looking real likely even on channel green shoots.
In all seriousness, if Q1 GDP is 3%, with the revisions being less consumption and more inventory, and the data Q2 to date is much softer than Q1, and housing is set to pull a header post the expiration of the credit, how can full year GDP being anything above 3%?
Less means more, apparently.
Gap up and panic buying for all!
Interesting that Goldman got it wrong. For a while there was quite a common view that they were predicting the numbers exactly correctly right before each release because they were getting leaked info in advance.
Maybe that was hokum and they just had a lucky streak, or maybe their access has been cut off
Neither.
They throw a fast ball way high sometimes just to convince those in the cheap seats that the game is not rigged.
"...the Fed is on some alternative planet..."
Yes, it is the planet YourAnus and the biological anomalies indigenous to the planet speak from the Anus...
I thought they had renamed that planet
- YourRectum -
to end that silly planet name pronouncing debate once and for all.
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=156616&title=smelloscope
Whatever, the future's are predicting a huge move up today. Although it seems that there is some fear as we approach the open this morning. What the hell was with the dollar/euro move last night anyways? Was that all chinese rumors?
Shadow Government Statistics
April Unemployment: 9.9% (U.3), 17.1% (U.6), 22.0% (SGS)
www.shadowstats.com
I feel more confident of a selloff today than I did on Tuesday when futures were down 30.
Unemployment claims basically flat since december, and yet the V shaped recovery is much stronger than previously expected (per Geithner).
One believes all these numbers are merely justification for Summers new $200b in stimulas.
Ya mean *200B Motes
*Pixeldust
"Summers new $200b in stimulas." aka 'trash for technocrats'
Mr. We need to do everything in our power to support the recovery Summers. Heck Lizzy, 200b won't even fund Larry's habits for the month...
If it is not clear yet, it will be most apparent soon. We are in a depression, and the US federal government, along with most of the states, is insolvent.
It's time we said, ENOUGH!
Wake up and smell the damn coffee.
hhhmmm.... fresh roast...
My call was the Depression started in January 2009.
I'll second that. I will give them credit and say the recession did, in fact, end...it just went right into depression.
Prob. so. So, how does one invest?
Cash and PMs. Play with the ratios until you are happy.
Hussman is a good guy to read about how to invest through these broken markets, very eloquent, very clear.
thank you
Invest? Nickels, is actually probably your best bet. That's not really the point though.
Winter once a cycle, comes and winnows the population.
You survive.
hmmm, wonder how this # is affected by the shenanigans at the census?
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/two_more_census_workers_blow_the_O...
"Labor doesn't check the Census hiring figure or whether the jobs are actually new or recycled. It considers a new job to have been created if someone is hired to work at least one hour a month."
2.4% of the GDP was due to consumer spending....which appears to be tapering off to down turning this Qtr. 2Q is going to be ugly.
My grandfather lived through the First Great Depression and that 15 year event shaped his entire life forever afterward.
Lessons:
1. "Don't believe the government when they tell things are getting better when your own eyes say otherwise."
2. (my favorite) "FDR created all kinds of "make work" projects for a bunch of farmers like me that didn't really accomplish anything."
3. "Save your money. Then save more."
Luckily, you were able to learn that second hand. Most people can't learn except through personal experience, and even at that, it usually takes somehting like a bat to the head to get through.
Experience is indeed the best teacher. Good reminder. *puts capital back to 'work' in FXE*
+1.
Thankyou.
My great grand uncle was one of the brokers that didn't jump out the window in the Depression. He was a rich,cranky old f!!@@#, but every time us kids went to visit, we loved him cuz he would dig in his pocket and pull out a dollar and say "here, have a buck!" He died when I was a teenager, but I will never forget the two pieces of advice he gave me.
1. Don't put your money in the stock market, the big boys will take it every time. Still true.
2. You can never have too much insurance. This one I used to believe. I always insured myself to the max for everything, has saved my butt numerous times over the last 35 years. I don't believe that today, they are all part of the vampire squid now and I don't believe when TSHTF they will have any bonafide assets either.
My great grandmothers used to always say, "don't waste food, it is a sin." I believe that came out of the Depression era too, they often went hungry during those times. I credit my love of gardening to them and my grandfather, they always grew food, whether they needed it or not. I feel sorry for younger people today, most did not have family members who could pass down lessons of the pain and difficulty of that era. They have no clue how tough life can get and how to survive it.
3rd revisions are usually the big mover. I'd be willing to bet it comes in at 2.5 or 2.6% in the end. Lower wouldn't shock me. They haven't inflated enough based on the PCE and that is going to come home to haunt them in SPADES soon enough. Monetary Velocity is still in the crapper and the banksters are still zombies. That's going to end up with a contracting economy during the summer and even greater funding crisises for the banksters come this fall. Insolvency is only cured with resetting the table with bankruptcy and liquidation, not the stupidity of the government creating bogus programs and tax credits which never have worked in history.
Financial news reporting that GDP neg. revisions irrelevant in light of China's full support of Europe. Funny stuff.
Yes we're in a Depression. That's the good news.
Bad news is thanks to the massive economic meddling to save Wall Street, banks, their bondholders and TPTB the recovery is further away and much weaker than The Great Depression. That's because in the 1930s deflation allowed prices and the economy to reset to sustainable levels. Decaying enterprises and over capacity were wiped out creating fresh opportunities for future growth. Plus at that time we hadn't outsourced our economic might. Japan's depression has outlasted the the Great Depression, with no sign of turning yet. And that's an economy that produces and saves unlike the US.
More "grandad lore"
#4. "Social security - I paid nothing for it, and suddenly I'm getting government checks every month. It's not right, but I'll take it...."
#5. "One day FDR created what he called a "minimum wage" and my daily earnings (from digging those FDR ditches) went from $0.20 a day to $1, and prices haven't stopped going up since." (relayed to me in the late 1970's - still haven't stopped, have they?)
The Bendromeda Strain...
LOL
Time to short this open. Euro dropping fast.
Here's to another day of losing money!
Goldman "missed"? Is their favored status for early leaks in jeopardy?
Or is this another head fake? Their stock is up.
We're just now kicking off QE2?
No wonder we're still in a depression.
I would have thought that with the socialists in charge of the government we would be somewhere in the vicinity of QE-6432.
But, if the fascists were running the show I'm more than sure we'd be starting World War 225.
Whats that smell coming from the refrigerator?
I shorted the open, made grocery money, and left the casino. Might be back for the close.
Have reached a new state of zen. Im glad they've fudge-fkd the numbers to try to keep this thing going. It means that when it does come to end (soon), the end will be complete and perfect.
That ongoing buying support I detected has morphed into a rally...
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1
This economy would be going full bore if it were creating 150-175K per month sustained. By setting the bar at 325K+ there can be no option but failure that will need to addressed with more QE in a self fulfilling feedback loop. Get down with the sickness.