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Economy Needs To Create 235K Jobs A Month To Return To Pre-Depression Levels By End Of Obama Second Term

Tyler Durden's picture





 

When we last ran this number, the economy needed to create 232,400 jobs per month to get to the same unemployment rate as last seen in December 2007, just before the depression started, courtesy of today's massive disappointment we can now increase the creation requirement to 235,120. As a reminder this is the number of jobs per month that need to be created between December 2010 and November 2016, or the end of Obama's now improbable second term, for jobs to recover their losses when taking into account the natural growth of the labor force of 90,000 people per month. Also, when ignoring the demographic shift, or just accounting for the absolute number in jobs without accounting for the labor force growth which is so wrong only the BLS looks at that number, the breakeven has been pushed back from June 2013 to July 2013. Economic collapse you can finally believe in. And now, with the BLS' good graces, the government can promptly pass the jobless benefits extension, which is what this whole doctored data charade is all about.

 


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Fri, 12/03/2010 - 10:26 | Link to Comment NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

how is it that none of the MSM question obama and bernanke on this disaster

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 10:35 | Link to Comment TheSettler
TheSettler's picture

The MSM have been totally hi-jacked for along time now.

http://metanoia-films.org/watchonline.php

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 12:55 | Link to Comment barkster
barkster's picture

what obama second term?

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 10:27 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

I still have to ask the question, if this report is indicative of the economic situation, when jobs are finally added, retail should go even more insane, right? 

I'll have a good report later from the front lines again. We're selling product at this event priced as low as $5 up to high end, $20,000.00 plus. Yesterday we saw huge interest in the $200-$1,500 range. That's an area that's been coming back strong. Never lost the low end or high end but the mid range was slow. That's where the big pick up is for all of us and one employment report is not going to change that.

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 10:31 | Link to Comment total nonsense
total nonsense's picture

Do you work for Goldman??? Maybe JPMC?

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 10:37 | Link to Comment RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

Can I ask what industry you work in with such a wide pricing range?

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 10:43 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Unicorns.

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 10:44 | Link to Comment RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

five dollar unicorns? fun for the whole family.

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 10:48 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Those are plastic replica's of the $20,000 version. The My Pretty Unicorn's. The mid range are your average Ford style Unicorns. The top end are AMG Unicorn from the highlands of Germany.

 

I guess he does have some emaciated Mongolian Unicorns in the bargain bin, but they crap lead paint chips.

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 10:55 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Home decor.

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 10:59 | Link to Comment dnarby
dnarby's picture

Seriously?

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 11:10 | Link to Comment RKDS
RKDS's picture

Are you thinking what I'm thinking? $5 knick-knacks and $20K ice sculptures are selling fine, but they were having trouble moving useless stuff like dinner tables and lamps.

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 11:11 | Link to Comment BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

I thought he said the 200-1500 range was up. That's the designer toilet market spiking. The bank execs need a nice view when puking their guts out when PM prices nuke their massive shorts.

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 11:54 | Link to Comment RKDS
RKDS's picture

He said there was "huge interest," not that sales were actually up, but also intimated by the use of "coming back" that they had been down.  At any rate, that folks at the very bottom and the very top have been somewhat insulated by transfer payments, while everyone else in the middle takes a beating...

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 13:26 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

my son has a "huge interest" in becoming a rock star 

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 10:59 | Link to Comment RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

Thanks Harry. Was just curious.

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 14:59 | Link to Comment xanax
xanax's picture

Home decor makes sense to be picking up.  Many people have been putting off purchases in the home space for years now.  But sooner or later, the wife says you need a new couch, and you just can't fight it anymore.  The many single 20-something males on ZH can't fully understand this dynamic.

The recent surge in refi's probably freed some cash for upgrades, especially since people are staying put in their places now (rather than flipping every 2 years).  I think there's a larger macro housing trend going on here that may be negative for home prices, but could have positive effects on vendors in the home space.  I know several coworkers that have refi'ed recently because they "have decided they're staying put forever", into a lower priced loan, adding a pool/kitchen/bathroom at the same time.

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 10:46 | Link to Comment Al89
Al89's picture

Name your company so I can call them and verify these claims. You of course wouldn't have to name yourself, just the company.

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 11:03 | Link to Comment DisparityFlux
DisparityFlux's picture

You are fortunate to be in a retail mail order business, maybe outdoor recreation and sports equipment such as Cabela's (NYSE: CAB), to take advantage of those who still have purchasing power and leisure time and also that growing segment of the population which has need for shelter (tents, tarps and sleeping bags) and food gathering (fishing rods & tackle, bows & arrows, guns & ammo), preparation (knives and camping stoves) and storage (coolers) equipment. 

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 10:58 | Link to Comment John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

I wonder what the real difference is between a $5 hand job and a $20,000 hand job...

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 11:18 | Link to Comment BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

Depends on the on the grit size in the lube. $5 is 1/8" screen I think.

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 11:41 | Link to Comment Ben Fleeced
Ben Fleeced's picture

Thank you Thank you Thank you...

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 11:54 | Link to Comment John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Ha!  Funny stuff, BP.

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 12:04 | Link to Comment overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

Harry, I guess the OD Green line is going great-the barrack halls do need to be spruced up for the incoming draftees to fight WW3

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 15:48 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

"I still have to ask the question, if this report is indicative of the economic situation, when jobs are finally added, retail should go even more insane, right"

No when jobs are added or the recovery happens which it won't there will be distortion fixes. Like right now they don't want people to know how many people are out of work so they distort it down. They don't want people to know that the economy is not doing anything so they distort it up. Sales are lies. Big fat lies.

During the great depression there was huge need for labor because more people could participate in the industrial revolution than in the information system revolution. So the distortions occured the other way. There were less jobless people than reported. They focused more on the hard luck stories and the bad news. This put it in peoples minds that jobs were scarcer than they were were.

AMD doesn't lie out thier butt during thier quarterly reports but you better believe Intel and microsoft and everybody else does. If the economy BOOMED apple would be flat for 2 years just "fixing" the books back.

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 10:28 | Link to Comment oklaboy
oklaboy's picture

It's not about jobless extensions, it is the  tecktonic shift in the economy they are hiding. 40% of the manufacuring/machining capacity from 2005 to 2010 as been  evicerated, and were are you going to employ 10 million people with a defined skill set? Until we start making things here again to soak up the bodies, were are in for a along, brutal haul, ala Grapes of Wrath. 

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 10:29 | Link to Comment chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

when jobs are finally added...

 

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 15:02 | Link to Comment Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

The U.S. may have to face the fact that unemployment is going to be high for a long time," said Drew Matus, a senior economist at UBS. "There are people who need to be retrained for new jobs and that will take time."

And what pray tell me, please, will they be. Outside of a World War to create destruction demand,its got me stumped.

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 10:36 | Link to Comment FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

All you need to know is that this whole world economic mess doesn't mathematically add-up and that's why it will collapse. Mathematics is truth. Ponzi schemes by their very nature cannot last forever.

These messes throughout history always end in one way: lots of people dying, and the people who created and kept the system alive will get away with the rewards. We now have the worst kind of mess: a world-wide mess, everyone is involved.

This is how the few control the many. And they play it on the people through various guises century after century.

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 11:21 | Link to Comment BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

It hardly even qualifies as mathematics actually, arithmetic really, but a grade 9 education doesn't cover exponents. Keep everybody stupid, they'll fall for anything, like Arnold the paperboy tricking Fred Flintstone.

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 15:05 | Link to Comment xanax
xanax's picture

Actually the mistake many people on this board make is forgetting about population growth.

The fundamental basis of all Ponzi schemes is you need a growing group of new members to add to the scheme.  As long as you have this, the scheme can continue.  Ponzi schemes collapse only when you run out of new members.

As long as a country's population is increasing, Ponzi schemes are completely sustainable (ethics arguments aside).  The problem with Europe and Japan is they have either stagnant or shrinking populations.  In this case, the scheme falls apart.

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 15:21 | Link to Comment BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

In that case, the "population" is a product of the participants and their disposable income or savings, no?

Sat, 12/04/2010 - 01:59 | Link to Comment samseau
samseau's picture

Correct.  And when the ponzi sucks up too many resources for the population to flourish, they stop reproducing in great numbers.  This in turn causes further contraction in the ponzi's growth, which in turn causes the population to reproduce even less

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 10:37 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

yeah, that's likely to happen.

The last UE bulge was narrowed down by the creation of the housing bubble.  The previous one by the .com bubble.

So basically we need another irrational bubble that blows skyhigh and then crashes, destroying our economy in order to get out of the LAST time we did the same thing.

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 10:45 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

The market is now down 10 points. Ridiculous.

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 10:51 | Link to Comment papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

ISM non-manufacturing will pump it up. The NFP will be quickly forgotten since only the ADP report is what really counts (in the minds of the bulls).

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 10:49 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Unfortunately, it is all about the Chinese employment numbers. The market reacts to Chinese data and not US data any longer. How is your mandarin?

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 10:55 | Link to Comment Gordon Freeman
Gordon Freeman's picture

The "unemployed" are fast becoming "unemployable"--so I hope they enjoy their little Christmas bonus while it lasts...

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 11:06 | Link to Comment MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

<s>Who needs jobs when you just let the 99'ers roll off the data. May as well cut UE benefits to 60 weeks and PRESTO look at the UE numbers move in the 'right' direction. Of course many millions of people are still without jobs and UE benefits, but who cares when the government numbers look this great!</s>

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 11:55 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

That's only 17 million jobs needed to be created, roughly, people.

C'mon, quit being so cynical of the U.S. Government's willingness to step out of the way, take down roadblocks to job creation, and incentivize people to innovate and hire.

Yes we can! Green shoots! Hopium!

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 12:12 | Link to Comment NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

all these guys who go on tv and proudly proclaim that the abysmal job #s dont matter because the market is up;

hard not to wish that they discover what it is like to be out of work

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 12:43 | Link to Comment Quonk
Quonk's picture

Underemployment is the new American pastime.

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 17:31 | Link to Comment Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

Slick charts, but it uses an input flaw.  The unemployment rate will never get back to 5.0% that we say in Dec 07.  It was an anomaly of the tech/credit/housing bubbles.  5% had always been the estimated theoretical rate of full employment.  6.5% is a more realistic rate, closer to historical average.

I know, I know, the point was that at 40K/month, the economy is far, far underachieving that which is required to get employment back to "normal".

Fri, 12/03/2010 - 17:34 | Link to Comment Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

But, but... according to Nancy Pelosi (and Joe Biden) more unemployment benefits, and thereby extension higher unemployment ADDS jobs to the economy and reduces the deficit.

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