The Economy in Q3

By Jeff Harding of The Daily Capitalist.

Every commentator is teasing the positives or negatives of recent data to
justify his or her prognostications as to whether or not we are in a recovery. I
ignore most forecasts because economists forecast the future by
assuming what happened last week will happen next week, maybe a little better or
maybe a little worse. Very few got it right for this cycle so I don’t believe
most of them now.

Having said that, I have analyzed recent data and have come up with an
assessment, not a forecast. The difference between me and the other guys is that
I know that I’m pretty much guessing. They don’t.

Let’s start from the top.

Ben Bernanke came out and declared the recession to be over:

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday that the recession was
“very likely over,” as consumers showed some of the first tangible signs of
spending again. … Mr. Bernanke, who had become cautiously more upbeat in recent
weeks amid signs of third-quarter growth, said for the first time that
forecasters agree “at this point that we are in a recovery.” … The rebound,
he added, would likely be so moderate it wouldn’t produce many
jobs.

This, coming from the world’s most powerful central banker, is what is called
a “ringing endorsement.”

Far be it from me to question the Chairman, but forecasters don’t
agree at all. If one expects GDP to bounce back to pre-crash levels, then the
recession is not over. I have
written about the fact that fiscal stimulus will have an impact on the
economy in Q3 and Q4. But when the stimulus stops, the economy will fall back
again. I believe that the data points to a bottoming out but the economy just
won’t snap back to the
good old days.

Let’s look at the data. The numbers are getting better, there is no question
about that.

Housing:

It appears as if home prices are bottoming out. While there is a lot of
conflicting data every month, the trend is obvious.

The most important piece of housing data is housing inventory. Nationwide,
the supply of homes for sale is down to an 8.5 months supply for all product.
This is down (by 16.4%) from a high of 11 months which shows that inventory is
working its way through the economy. About 31% of sales are foreclosures and
short sales which is to be expected. While sales of existing homes were off 2.7%
last month, prices are still
declining:

The median price of a new house fell 9.5 percent from the prior
month, the biggest decrease since records began in 1963, as homes selling for
less than $150,000 took a bigger share of the market. The median price decreased
to $195,200, the lowest level since October 2003.

The median price nationwide for existing homes was $177,700 in
August, 12.5% lower than the same month a year earlier.

People are looking for deals, and, with mortgage rates relatively low, they
are finding them. While the reports point to the $8,000 first time home buyer
credit as the cause, the major factor driving sales is that prices are
down and the affordability index is rising. Not everyone is unemployed. However,
if the buyer credit ends November 30, then, obviously, sales will drop off
somewhat.

Also there is still a lot of inventory overhang from the shadow market: homes
that are in foreclosure (1.2 million) or that are behind in making payments (1.5
million). Ivy
Zelman of Zelman research firm Zelman & Associates believes three
million to four million foreclosed homes will come on the market in the next
several years. This will keep negative pressure on prices.

Don’t look for a rebound in home prices, that will be many years in the
making if past cycles mean anything.

Consumer Spending:

Check this poll
taken by Bloomberg:

Americans plan to refrain from boosting their spending even after the biggest
drop in consumption since 1980, signaling concern about the direction of the
economy over the next six months.

Only 8 percent of U.S. adults plan to increase household spending, almost
one-third will spend less, and 58 percent expect to “stay the course,” a
Bloomberg News poll showed. More than 3 in 4 said they reduced spending in the
past year.

Respondents were divided over whether the economy will get better or stay the
same in the next six months; only 1 in 6 said things will get worse. More than
40 percent of those surveyed said they feel less financially secure than they
did when President Barack Obama took office in January, outnumbering 35 percent
who said they feel more secure.

In the poll, conducted Sept.10-14, 40 percent of those questioned said they
have experienced one or more problems from the banking crisis. In the most-often
cited repercussions, 27 percent said their credit-card interest rates have risen
dramatically and 15 percent report that they couldn’t get a home-equity, car, or
other kind of consumer loan.

Underscoring consumers’ austere attitudes, 77 percent of respondents said
they have cut back on spending during the past year, 59 percent said they have
made a bigger effort to pay off debts and 48 percent have put more money aside
as savings.

Consumer spending dropped in four of the past six quarters, and is down 1.9
percent from its peak in July-to-September 2007, the biggest retrenchment since
1980.

The Fed’s quarterly flow of funds
report said that while household net worth was up 3.9% it was still down
almost 19% from the $65.3 trillion peak in the third quarter of 2007. How did
households do it? They trimmed their debt by 1.7%, or by about $100 billion. The
Fed said home-mortgage debt fell an annualized 1.5% during the quarter. They
also cut their borrowing and spending: consumer credit fell at a 6.5% annualized
pace after declining 3.7% in the first quarter, the Fed said. The stock market
rally also helped.

Unemployment:

The national unemployment rate is 9.7% and is rising, although at a slower
rate. 14 states had rates of 10% in August, and California reached a 70-year
high of 12.2%. Bernanke and the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee both said
that unemployment would continue to rise. That makes people insecure. This week
we’ll see more data come out on this (ADP and BLS reports).

Commercial Real Estate:

The  commercial
real estate market is a disaster.

The drop in sales activity and commercial property pricing re-intensified in
July after a slight respite in June, according to the Moody’s/Real Commercial
Property Price Indices, or CPPI. The all-property-types component of CPPI, a
collaboration of Moody’s Investors Service and Real Estate Analytics that tracks
repeat property sales, fell 5.1 percent to 117.56, following a 1 percent drop in
June and a 7.6 percent fall in May. The all-property index, as of June 30, was
down 30.8 percent from the year before and 38.5 percent from its peak in October
2007.

Only 74 transactions were used to calculate the CPPI in July, making it the
latest in a string of low-volume months. June saw 87 deals, May had 52 and April
had 67. To calculate the CPPI, a minimum of 40 transactions need to be recorded
for the annual all-property-types component. The 74 deals that took place in
July totaled $1.2 billion. June’s transaction total was $1.1 billion.

As previously reported, property pricing for the year ended June 30 was down
for all property types, led by multifamily, down 24.4 percent, and industrial’s
23.1 percent decline. Office and retail were both down 21.2
percent.

Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch downgraded
a total of 3,405 commercial mortgage backed securities bond classes during
the first half of the year and upgraded only 82, the most lopsided
upgrade-to-downgrade ratio in their history. The rating agencies aren’t going to
be caught looking the other way as they were with residential mortgage backed
securities.

The commercial real estate market is turning very ugly and I suspect that it
will take many banks down with it. Most commercial real estate loans are held by
bankers in their own portfolios and have heavy
exposure in a downturn.

Since late 2007, a total of 47 banks and savings institutions have failed, of
which a dozen or so had unusually high commercial-mortgage exposure. Foresight
Analytics in Oakland, Calif., estimates the U.S. banking sector could suffer as
much as $250 billion in commercial real-estate losses in this downturn. The
research firm projects that more than 700 banks could fail as a result of their
exposure to commercial real estate. …

Of $154.5 billion of securitized commercial mortgages coming due between now
and 2012, about two-thirds likely won’t qualify for refinancing,
Deutsche Bank predicts. Its estimate assumes declines in commercial-property
values of 35% to 45% from the peak in 2007. That would exceed the price drops in
the downturn of the early 1990s.

The bank estimates the default rates on the $700 billion of
commercial-mortgage-backed securities could hit at least 30%, and loss rates,
which figure in the amounts recovered by lenders, could reach more than 10%, the
peak seen in the early 1990s.

Besides securities backed by commercial real-estate loans, about $524.5
billion of whole commercial mortgages held by U.S. banks and thrifts are
expected to come due between this year and 2012. Nearly 50% wouldn’t qualify
for refinancing in a tight credit environment, as they exceed 90% of the
property’s value, estimates Matthew Anderson, partner at Foresight Analytics.
Today, lenders generally won’t loan over 65% of a commercial property’s value.

In contrast to home mortgages — the majority of which were made by only 10 or
so giant institutions — hundreds of small and regional banks loaded up on
commercial real estate. As of Dec. 31, more than 2,900 banks and savings
institutions had more than 300% of their risk-based capital in commercial
real-estate loans, including both commercial mortgages and construction
loans.

CRE debt refinancing schedule courtesy Goldman Sachs

Manufacturing and Industrial Production:

Manufacturers’ durable goods orders, an indication of firms’ capital
spending, declined in August by 2.4% to a seasonally adjusted $164.44 billion.
This was unexpected and was the biggest drop in seven months. The result came
from a big drop in aircraft orders. Apart from aircraft, durable goods orders
were flat.

Unfilled factory orders dropped again, now 11 months in a row, falling 1.3%.
This is the longest streak since they started keeping statistics on this (1992).
Also, shipments of durable goods were down 1.4%, after two months of increases.

These numbers conflict with the manufacturing shipments and trade sales data
for July which were up 0.1 percent from June 2009 and down 17.8 percent from
July 2008. Manufacturers’ and trade inventories were down 1.0 percent from June
2009 and down 11.8 percent from July 2008. Manufacturers continue to cut
inventory.

The production of capital goods, such as durable goods, is necessary for a
recovery. Manufacturers of capital goods require a substantial time to complete
production, unlike the production of consumer goods, and they are reluctant to
take risks until they see economic recovery.

Corporate Debt:

About 40 percent of all U.S. junk bonds outstanding in late 2008 will likely
default by 2013 as government aid measures end and a wall of corporate debt
comes due, Bank
of America Merrill Lynch said on Thursday.

By contrast, the cumulative five-year default rate was about 30 percent in
the last two default cycles, Bank of America said in a report.

The worst recession since the 1930s has already pushed defaults to
double-digit rates. According to Standard & Poor’s, the default rate rose to
10.4 percent in August from less than 1 percent in 2007 as the recession and
credit crunch left companies unable to pay off debt.

Deleveraging by consumers and financial institutions and fiscal problems at
federal and state governments will slow the economic recovery, keeping defaults
high, Bank of America said. Failure of the “shadow banking system” to reinvent
itself will also contribute to high defaults, it said, referring to hedge funds
and other non-bank institutions that fueled the last credit boom.

Defaults will also be triggered by hundreds of billions of dollars of debt
coming due, especially in 2013 and 2014, Bank of America said. About $361
billion of high-yield loans come due in those two years alone, or 72 percent of
the total outstanding, the bank estimated in an earlier report.

Bank of America in December had forecast that the junk bond default rate
could peak at 17 percent in the second quarter of 2010, the worst since the
Great Depression. Thanks to numerous government lifelines, including near-zero
interest rates, it now expects the default rate to peak at 12.8 percent in the
fourth quarter this year.

However, defaults will remain higher than normal and peak again at 8.5
percent in late 2012, the bank estimated. Even by 2013, the default rate will
still be around 6 percent, much higher than the sub-4-percent levels usually
seen at the end of a default cycle, Bank of America said.

Consumer Credit and Money Supply:

A Fed
report released last week shows banks had $6.85 trillion of loans and leases
outstanding to businesses and households as of Sept. 9, down for a fifth
straight week and below the record $7.32 trillion in October 2008 [down 14%]. …
The Fed’s second-quarter survey of senior loan officers, released Aug. 17,
showed U.S. banks tightened standards on all types of loans and said they expect
to maintain strict criteria on lending until at least the second half of
2010.

In July consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 10.5%, the sixth
straight monthly decline.

Courtesy Calculated Risk

Money supply in the economy has been shrinking.

The Fed’s second-quarter
survey of senior loan officers, released Aug. 17, showed U.S. banks
tightened standards on all types of loans and said they expect to maintain
strict criteria on lending until at least the second half of 2010. Banks have
plenty of reasons to hold back on lending, analysts say. Americans fell behind
on their mortgage payments at a record pace in the second quarter, with
delinquencies rising to 9.24 percent, according to an August report by the
Mortgage Bankers Association. “Consumers aren’t necessarily that creditworthy a
proposition right now,” said John Ryding , chief economist and founder of RDQ
Economics LLC in New York.

Economic Impact:

The FOMC was quite correct when it said that we had little to worry about
inflation. What we do have to contend with is deflation.

Bernanke and others are pointing to positive numbers that are transitory
effects of various fiscal stimulus programs. For example, retail sales were up
2.7% in August after falling 0.2% in July. Auto sales from the Cash for Clunkers
program was the main driver. Ex auto sales, there was a 1.1% increase. It
appears that much of the activity was back to school buying (though it was
reportedly a bad season) and people looking for bargains in heavily discounted
goods. Overall, retail sales are down 5.3% from last year.

Bernanke can also point to the stock market as a leading indicator of future
business activity but, in my mind, that is mostly a result of speculation rather
than hard economic data. According to David
Rosenberg at Gluskin Scheff: “The S&P 500 is trading north of a 26x P/E
multiple on trailing operating earnings and history shows that at these high
valuation levels, the market declines in the coming year 60% of the time.”

The Cash
for Clunkers program is dead and by all accounts will have no lasting
effects as dealers report that all it did was borrow against future sales. There
is no lasting impact from such stimulus as
history has shown. I fear that the tooling up for more production by
automobile manufacturers is misguided and will backfire on them.

There will be growth in Q3 and Q4 GDP from fiscal stimulus. If you take many
billions of dollars out of the economy and give it to someone else to spend, the
dollars spent will create economic activity but won’t create lasting wealth
necessary for economic recovery. Economic growth only comes from real savings and real savings may
be deteriorating.

The government can’t spend forever. National debt is growing so large that it
will cause the dollar to to fall, crowd out capital available for private
enterprise, and result in higher taxes, all of which will act as a drag on the
economy.

When the Fed and others state that the economy has turned the corner they
seem to be talking about another country. They boast that they prevented a
worldwide economic collapse and that government efforts have turned the economy
around. There is no valid evidence that their efforts have cured anything. But,
even assuming that is true, we are experiencing continued rising unemployment,
collapsing prices, very tight credit, and stubborn consumers who haven’t read
Keynes’ General Theory about the evils of “hoarding.”

Let’s face it, the Fed and the Treasury have been wrong, have no real control
over the economy, and can’t stop deflation or stimulate the economy. If they
could, they would. If the billions spent for fiscal stimulus were working, then
why aren’t we seeing that show up the in the broad data? If they understood the
underlying causes of the crisis, why didn’t they prevent it?

By studying the experience of
Japan during their lost decade (actually, their lost 14 years) and during
this crisis, we find ourselves in a very familiar situation. Japan tried and is
still trying everything we are doing (actually we are trying what they tried,
down to Cash for Clunkers), and they continue to experience deflation and
sluggish growth. Their result is that their average GDP growth for the past 19
years has been flat — 0.6%.

Japan’s exports fell
for an 11th month in August as the economic recovery struggled to gain
traction. Shipments abroad dropped 36 percent from a year earlier compared with
a 36.5 percent decline in July, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. From a
month earlier, exports fell 0.7 percent, the second straight decrease.

Today’s report suggests the boost in overseas demand that helped the economy
expand in the second quarter may be moderating as governments exhaust
stimulus spending. New Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama meets his counterparts
from the Group of 20 nations in Pittsburgh today to discuss how to sustain a
recovery from the worst global recession since the 1930s.

“Even with all those global stimulus measures, the recovery in exports has
been extremely slow,” said Seiji Shiraishi, chief economist at HSBC Securities
Japan Ltd. in Tokyo. “Final demand worldwide remains weak.”

I believe that economies eventually pull themselves out of cycles without
any help from government. We are seeing some of these effects now as the
housing and commercial real estate markets correct themselves from the excesses
of this first decade of the new century. There is nothing that the government
can or should do to stop this corrective process.

The question is whether or not the massive stimulus spending and resulting
debt will harm the economy enough to delay a recovery. Certainly it did so in
Japan. I believe it will harm our economy, but it’s difficult to predict what
future government policy will be and how it will impact the shorter term. Unlike
some deflationists, I think that, contrary to the experience in Japan, the
government can and will create inflation once bank balance sheets are repaired
and consumers feel more comfortable about the economy. The Japanese didn’t let
banks and companies fail; we do. I believe that our dynamic economy will recover
at some point and the government will
inflate. Long term trends point to tepid growth. In a word, stagflation.

Comments

[Anonymous]

Gold at 5000.00?

[Econophile]

Interesting comments, and for the most part, I agree with the sentiments.

A couple of points. I used the M1 MULT because it demonstrates the relation of M1 to money base. Which means that while base has been increasing, M1 is declining and the graph clearly shows that. M1 reflects more the cash in the economy without the element of time accounts which are not generally instantly available. M2 and others reflect the fact that savings are increasing but if M1 is decreasing it means that cash in the economy is shrinking.

Several comments I didn't understand, such as ShankyS. I agree that MtM is a good thing and it needs to be applied to bank assets. So, I'm confused by your comment. If I understand your comment, I think that's where I was going.

As to housing, I think this is an example of the market correcting itself. In light of the billions the Fed and government dollars funneled into that market, it is still falling and there's nothing they can or should do about it. The inventory levels do indicate that this market is firming up.

And, letting businesses fail? There are some very large exceptions to this fact, and I agree that they act as a drag on the economy. I was speaking more broadly in that, at least up to the crash, we let companies fail. We also let banks fail as we have seen. Most of the cash and loans are in the non-NYC banks, and they keep failing according to the FDIC reports. If you look at business bankruptcy filings they are going through the roof.

[Fruffing]

Nice catch on the CRE chart, and hat tip to NYT for still reading ML Fixed Income Research.  Most of us stopped Q2 2007 when they issued a GPC buy reccomendation on "Retail CDOs" for conservative investors.    Be amusing to see that report again...

[ZerOhead]

This is not a traditional economic cycle IMHO... this is what will be later known as an economic reset of epic proportions...

It's going to be interesting to see how CRE performs over the next couple of years... I am getting more invested in CRE daily... yet am also seriously concerned that the shitmobile may crash and burn before we put enough miles behind these hairpin turns. Talk about conflicted... Thank god it's not my money...

[Anonymous]

Interesting chart with the 2016 CMBS ramp up in refinancing at $ 284b. Scary to see how far out this CRE refinancing problem goes. And I doubt that a 30% value appreciation will save a lot of these by 2016.

Good job on the chart. First time I've seen it, and almost wish I hadn't.

[ZerOhead]

It's called a future buying opportunity...

[ShankyS]

Very well written. The most optimistic post here ever. You left out a small issue. Shoving trillions of shit loans in a closet and applying any freaking accounting rules you so desire does not solve any problems.They have done nothing but throw good money into the market. Leverage and credit issues are only slightly better than before this mess. They have not done a damn thing to solve the real problems and until that is all unwound, we're toast. Sure, we'll coast along and GS will make its billions, but the real problems persist. Again, nicely written and researched post, but I'll file this next to the stuff I hear on CNBS. Konichiwa.

[Anonymous]

m1 money multiplier is a horrible definition of the money supply. The true definition of money would be MZM or augmented m2 monetary methods.
Both of these are expanding.

[Anonymous]

i agree that m2 is expanding at least as of august
but m2 is a poor indicator if one is trying to
undestand monetary inflation....m3 is far superior
for that but the fed conveniently stopped publishing
that number a few years ago...

[Anonymous]

i stand corrected...i am seeing many commentators
speak of declining m2 ned schmidt being one of them...

insofar as m2 is declining (and if m3 is then
even more so) economic activity will be declining
as well....it certainly may be partially responsible
for the recent decline in gold price...

[Anonymous]

"The Japanese didn’t let banks and companies fail; we do. I believe that our dynamic economy will recover at some point and the government will inflate. Long term trends point to tepid growth. In a word, stagflation."

You let companies go bankrupt? Why are GM still producing cars then? Why are Citigroup still limping gamely along? Why have tariffs just been imposed on Chinese tyres? Why do you not import sugar based ethanol from Brazil rather than expensive/lower fuel efficiency corn based ethanol from IOWA. With such a vibrant private sector, why is the combination of Federal and State employees over a third of jobs? Why do people like the Teamsters Union still put the fear of God into politicians when they squall and stamp their little feet?

The US economy is little more than a political kleptocracy owned by the weak and fearful to the detriment of the brave and efficient. There is no protection that cannot be bought, no regulation that cannot be subverted and no failing competitive advantage that cannot be shored up. Time to unleash Shumpertarian creative destruction, take the supports out and let the chips fall where they may.

[Anonymous]

your points are well taken....it used to be the
case that the usa was much less interventionist
than the japanese or europeans but as we saw this
time the statist totalitarian mindset of our
kleptocrats asserted itself - the old order has
been swept aside as the new despots assume control....

[Anonymous]

You guys still don't get it. Worshiping at the altar or normalcy.

"Economies pull themselves out of cycles " blah blah blah.

Get it through your heads. There has never been a cycle before with oil running out and there IS NO ALTERNATIVE ENERGE method for pushing 18 wheelers down the road loaded with the 12 million pounds of food a city needs Each Day. (1.5 lbs per person per day, including packaging)

[Anonymous]

"...there IS NO ALTERNATIVE ENERGE method for pushing 18 wheelers down the road..."

Perhaps not, but there are alternatives to 18 wheelers. And there are alternatives to oil. They're just not economically attractive enough yet. But they will be eventually. When we cross that invisible line we'll turn to those alternatives. Ta-dah!

That's not to say you'll see a windmill strapped to my hairy ass any time soon. But once we're paying 6$/gallon for gas, and Americans realize that a proven, safe, clean technology like nuclear power is just a 'pen stroke' away, it will carry the day.

Look our, Homer, here we come!

[Anonymous]

They are fast, efficient, and very clean.

Yes, the generating plants produce carbon.
And as a result the trains can be considered to be
polluters as well. But the point here is that once you
are shipping the goods electrically it is a small matter
to develop the power supplies that have lower carbon
emissions and motors that have higher efficiencies.

Something that can't really be done with an internal
combustion engine, those are already nearing peak efficiency
and emissions.

To claim there isn't an alternative to anything is to
proclaim that you have decided that thinking is too hard.

[Anonymous]

Yeah, there is.

Over here in the UK we call them electric trains.
They are fast, efficient, and very clean.

Yes, the generating plants produce carbon.
And as a result the trains can be considered to be
polluters as well. But the point here is that once you
are shipping the goods electrically it is a small matter
to develop the power supplies that have lower carbon
emissions and motors that have higher efficiencies.

Something that can't really be done with an internal
combustion engine, those are already nearing peak efficiency
and emissions.

To claim there isn't an alternative to anything is to
proclaim that you have decided that thinking is too hard.

[Anonymous]

you don't get it...and please go back to your
cia-fed masters for a different spiel....

oil is not running out and it is quite abundant
the contrary voodoo geology notwithstanding....

[Anonymous]

Nice try :-). Just keep repeating that, close your eyes and click your heals together! there's no place like home, there's no place like home...

[Anonymous]

i saw you do that in the movie (and in energy
analysis) and decided it
didn't have any applicability to real life...

[ghostfaceinvestah]

"I believe that economies eventually pull themselves out of cycles without any help from government. We are seeing some of these effects now as the housing and commercial real estate markets correct themselves from the excesses of this first decade of the new century."

?  You do realize the Fed is buying $1.25T of MBS, and 80% of new mortgage loans are guaranteed by the govt?

[Anonymous]

right. they've got a ways to go to finish correcting.

[Anonymous]

i hate to quibble with someone who concludes that economies correct themselves despite central planning intervention....i wish we had more people like you - especially in government....

however, one of my biggest bitches about statistical sampliing, which all of the foregoing statistics represent, is that sampling error is not included....my hunch is that the increases and decreases cited are within sampling error which means we don't know squat about the true trend of the numbers....if i am correct then all we can say is that we are treading water....

second item is that i do not accept the government's inflation numbers....i go strongly with john williams who shows substantial inflationary trends....

finally, i agree that the massive accumulation of debt is not only irresponsible and unproductive but actually harmful in the sense that marginal productivity of debt is negative and will derail economic growth....there simply is too much debt and one of these trillions of debt will be the straw which breaks the camel's back....i don't think consumer repayments in the billions can overcome government trillions....

without healthy banks there will be no recovery....and the banks are simply not healthy....

and yet....the ecri's wli is up sharply and they have a strong record with that index so i am not one to fight the trend....it could be based on inflated dollars so it might be a hollow victory....time will tell....

[Daedal]

"I believe that economies eventually pull themselves out of cycles without any help from government." 

Precisely. Given enough economic freedom, economies eventually pull themselves out of recessions, in spite of what government is doing. Government stimuli is an oxymoron, at best. For a quick example, you need look no further than cash for clunkers. Obama and Biden praised it as "the results of cash from clunkers is better than we ever hoped for" -- these keynesian puppets not only skewed sales by stimulating short term at the expense of long term sales, they also managed to waste tax payer money in the process. And let's not forget about the 'positive' outcomes; Japenese companies garnering most of the sales, GM ramping up production on faux demand, and people who made (environmantally) bad decision of buying gas guzzlers in the past got rewarded $4,500.

[Anonymous]

Pull my finger recoveries:

BB saw economic recovery in the Winter of 2008, HP saw no systemic mortgage risk in the Spring or Summer of 2008, LS saw inflation in August 1982 and TG told Chinese
students in the Summer of 2009 the Treasury is in great shape, if these are any clue to the forecasting prowess of those in government financial power these enddays.

$23 T of government programs and pending tax hikes
may have postponed real recovery at least another
decade.

What we have here is a massively failing USA LBO,
opening the door to penny on the dollar takeovers
by those who have cash savings left when the credit default
implosion bottoms...

JubileeProsperity.com

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