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ECRI At -9.9% As Downward Historical Prior Revisions Continue
The ECRI Weekly came in at an annualized -9.9%, once again straddling the critical -10% boundary. Of course with two previous downward revisions, it appears the index' creators have taken up the government's favorite data fudging ploy of downward revising prior data, as the past week's -10% now ends up being -10.1%. No doubt next week this week's -9.9% will be revised to a worse number. But by then all the beneficial impact of the better number will be long forgotten.
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Its no longer any fun anymore to point out what a fraud it all is, just makes me sick now. The game is over people.
What the weekly ECRI stuff tells me is that it might be a reversal... but it might not.
It's still around -10, meaning that there is still expected to be continued economic weakness. I don't think people should get too up in arms about the most recent data. There WOULD be a problem, though if a positive ECRI data point was revised down to -10. But the graphs show there are "pauses" at levels, like we are seeing now.
At some point, either the data gets weaker... or stronger. I'm betting on weaker.
The Totalitarian Two Step Shuffle. That's one step up, two steps back.
Ops, sorry madam, was that your toe I stepped on as I backed up once again? My bad.
GDP down, market up.
No QE2, market up.
Intel cuts guidance, market up.
ECRI down, market up.
Massive asteroid spotted hurtling toward Earth, impact in 5 minutes, market up.
Don't ask questions, market up.
The massive asteroid headed towards earth is much better than expected.
would you please get it right, the UNEXPECTED asteroid
Priced in already
Almost there - "complete disintegration of Earth" was priced in, but we'll only get "complete destruction of Earth", hence it's better than expected news, and markets go up accordingly.
Very funny ChopChop
Somebody needs to compile the best of these smart-alec ZH comments and publish a book. That thread was pure comedy/poetry.
I would buy it, love it and try to force it on my friends/family but they'd probably hate it :(
Have people always been this disinterested i the reality of the working of this crazy world and the formation of history?
Massive asteroid is baked in.
Z
Yes, because it is not as big as it could hav been
LOL!
Can you collect on your homeowners insurance if an asteroid hits the earth? Just wondering....
Adding insult to injury is watching a talking head speak about an oversold market and how the market "knee-jerks" to bad data...
The asteroid is already priced in.
+1 dat funny
I guess you missed the markets being down for the last week and a half or so.
It's funny. I said the market would be up today, and people laughed at me.
Who's laughing now?
LOL at people that are so biased they can't even see the writing on the wall.
It was obvious that the market was going to bounce.
I bet they appreciate your talents a lot more over at Mish's blog. Why don't you go there, and leave us numbskulls to our conspiracy theories? No-one gains anything when you post, because everyone either hates you, or holds you in contemptible amusement.
Just get out.
What? Are they gaining on your "buy gold at 1320 and sell at 1220" advice?
LOL. They'd be up 100 points if they listened to me.
And yet, they'd rather believe in their own bearish biases...
No wonder everybody here is bitter. I'd be bitter if I consistently lost money due to an irrational bias and had a lack of understanding about the markets too.
Speaking of bear bias, care to revise your gold top call at 1220? Gold to triple digits? Did your squggly lines mislead you?
It's not done yet.
Oooohhh... so it went 20 dollars higher than I said it would. Oh no...
At least I called the uptrend. What calls have you made lately?
*crickets chirp*
And where's this gold at 2000 like everybody on this site predicted?
Where's gold at 54000?
But I missed my target by 1.5%
Oh no...
I don't make calls, I make investments. You should have a newsletter, you have mastered the art of always being 'early, not wrong'.
So I said YESTERDAY NIGHT that the market would be up today, and you call that "too early?"
LOL.
I called the rising wedge the last time gold was pushing 1260, and that's too early?
I called the uptrend when gold was at 1160, and that's too early?
The funny thing is that I'm up more on my call since YESTERDAY than I missed the gold target by.
You'd think that people would listen, but they'd rather act like they know it all.
That's okay. I'm using your money to pay my tuition this semester. Six classes are expensive. The books alone were 1100 bucks...
Only idiot or insider can play market up when every single indicator of future economic activity is so terrible. So who are you?
Somebody who can read stochastics, and chart patterns, I guess?
Besides, aside from all the technical indicators that predicted this bounce...
Haven't you people learned yet? The market is going to do what it wants to, not what it "should" fundamentally.
The fact that economic indicators were coming out today should have been enough reason for you to know that the market was going higher, even if you couldn't read technicals.
Still, the Slow STO had a reading of 7. This bounce was obviously due.
You knew that a H&S neckline wouldn't break if CRAMER was calling the pattern, right?
But the "technicals" (Slow STO and MACD) said the market was oversold and it still went down further. Without support, "technical" bounces are very short lived. When most of the carbon based traders get back to their desks and data in a couple of weeks, shit may hit the fan again and there will be no "technical" bounce as it punches through all support lines.
There is support. Did you not notice it bouncing off of the 1040 level, which it has pretty much bounced off of every time it tests it? (except for the last time)
Oversold is all relative. Sure there's the 20 and the 80 line for oversold and overbought, but that doesn't mean it won't keep going further.
STO was at 7, which has typically been the low in the last three crashes. Usually, you want to wait for STO to get to at least previous levels before using it to predict a turn. Merely getting below 20 isn't good enough, or getting above 80. You want it to get to its relative minimum or maximum before it becomes a reliable indicator.
When shit hits the fan again, there will ALWAYS be a technical bounce involved. Only the size and duration is in question.
When the market was losing 800 points in a day, there would be a 300 point bounce the next day... it didn't last long, and it didn't retrace much of the fall, but it was still a technical bounce nevertheless.
he is still in school...lol
That's more than I can say for a lot of the posters here, which do not have an education in finance.
Does it matter if I'm Santa Claus if my predictions are right?
I'm beating old people at trading, so I have to do something right.
Your talent is wasted here. You should charge for your advice, not give it away for free here.
I try to help people, but they don't take my advice.
You too could be making money.
If I could figure out how to charge for my advice, I'd do it.
Instead all I can do is invest my meager savings. Still, it's enough to get by...
Poor johnny. Trying to make trees out of a field of wildflowers.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfQTZBA6Jg8
AW shut yer cocksucker JB! 'Market is up' what 40 points? Go give yourself a cookie and pump yerself in the corner fuktard.
It's going to get much higher than that.
By the way, it's up a HUNDRED, not 40. That's a big difference. (Although me missing the gold target by 20 bucks was a HUGE deal to the losers here.)
You people seem to think that it can only go down. No wonder you lose money all the time.
Well that and you pay 8% more for assets than they are worth.
Make that 120...
Damn. If only somebody on here was predicting the markets rising today.
Merehuman: JB, you're hilarious... KA BOOM!!!
Ka boom indeed.
johnny bravo or geithner or summers, who ever you are...what goes up must come down, natural law. This afternoon it will fall again.
And yes, you light my day with your inane, pathetic hopeful and stupid ideas.
The trend is down and there is no way around it. The damn cake is baked and we are gonna choke on it.
Silver and gold= safety, no matter the fake dollar price.
Damn. It sure looks like it ended up +165 to me, at the highs of the day.
Sure it'll come down eventually, but timelines are everything. For at least a few days, the trend is up.
It didn't fall this afternoon like you said it would, but it did close substantially higher like I said it would.
And yet, there's no "nice call" or anything like that. Just more "ohhh... well it'll drop this afternoon."
It isn't going to drop substantially for a few more days at least, probably longer.
"inane, pathetic hopeful and stupid ideas."
Damn, seems to me you forgot CORRECT ideas.
"inane, pathetic hopeful and stupid ideas."
Says the man who buys gold at more than 1300, when the market price is under 1250.
Nuff said.
So like they way you said yesterday would be up on the better than expected numbers...yet closed down on EOD. Do not gloat too early is the only lesson. I am not saying to stop being bullish/bearish, but acting like everyone is a moron since it is up in the middle of the day is a tad early. Wait til the finish line JB.
Not only does JB tell the girl how great it will be for her, but after he spills his seed on the sheets, he tells the girl how good it was for her.
Of course, no second opinions are allowed, particularly from the girl.
I didn't act like everybody was a moron. I pointed out that the person that called me a moron was wrong.
Also, the index ended at +165, or the highs of the day.
Just as I said. And yet... where's the "nice job, JB?"
Nope, it's just.. ummmm... well, it'll be down again if, when, etc...
No problem.... big b assures us that it will be all contained.
That's not the massive asteroid hurtling towards earth that you're looking for.
*waves hand with funky Jedi gesture*
Very nice. See below for an updated, 21st century version.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3_jh2dO78U&feature=related
Ah, Doublespeak. We have arrived at 1984 in earnest. Double plus good.
The market looks so psychotic it might snap at any minute.
Can I keep revising my income down on my 1040 every month? So, on April 15th, my AGI is 150,000, but then in May I drop it down to 125K, and finally on June 30 I report an AGI of 110K? That wouldn't raise any red flags, right?
You can. You just have to file amended returns.
Of course, there would be no reason to overstate in the first place...
It will all work out. The President is going to return from vacation and anounce a new Five-Year Plan to restore the US economy to greatness.
All Amanda has to do is lose one more button....
Then the XLF will take off like a scalded dog.
That XLF chart is looking bullish to me!
I'm glad I closed out my FAZ yesterday...
Go silver!
I'm going to go watch some porn before the unexpected asteroid hits...
People would rather junk me... because they cannot trade.
They buy one asset (for 8% higher than it's worth even) and hold it, and call it "investing."
LOL. Next time I buy gasoline, I'm going to give them 8% more than they ask for, so I can be a prudent "investor."
No, people junk you for the simple reason that you are a loud mouthed A-hole.
A pot stirrer with a small mind who is fixated on money.
pods
It just kills me that so many allow Johnny Jizz Bravo to get under their skin!
He is a self-admitted college student. I recall feeling like I knew it all 25 years ago, too. Real life has taught me to question, not blindly follow. One day, Johnny will learn this, too.
In the meantime, just ignore him. He won't listen to any arguments that are contrary to his worldview anyway. Why waste valuable time and effort dealing with his bullshit?
< Gong Sounds!/> Ahhh TF you have snatched marble from the Master's hand...David Carradine would approve! - However, as I am somewhat of a Newbie I have learned a great deal from this blog - I admire the independent thinking & the free exchange of commentary - although I MUST admit I ardently wait for the movie!
"I admire the independent thinking & the free exchange of commentary "
As do I. Its only in rare cases where I've seen guys get so pissed off that they ask someone to leave and not come back. There is the occasional asshole who shows up with racist, anti-semitic or anti-arab bomb throwing and they are almost always shouted down. Johnny Jizz gets everybody's goat because he's the worst kind of arrogant - totally uninformed yet completely convinced of his worldview. On a blog where the average IQ (yours truly excluded) is well north of Yahoo or CNBC, that shit isn't going to fly.
How can you say totally uninformed?
That's crazy. I'm not the one saying gold is going to 54000 or that the S&P is going to 450.
What really pisses people off is that I'm RIGHT more often than the other posters here.
If I wasn't RIGHT all the time, people wouldn't get so hurt.
If people are "so intelligent" as you say that they are, they would be able to refute my arguments well, and make market predictions that are equally impressive.
Where are the refutations? Where are the correct market predictions?
I'm still waiting for them.
Also, just because my opinion is contrary to yours doesn't mean that I should change my opinion. Why? Because I'm younger? That's arrogance. Not bragging when you're right pretty much all the time.
Here's how it goes.
I make a prediction.
People all get into their mega-bearish "end of the world" type crap, shout me down, tell me I'm retarded, gold bitchez, yada yada...
The next day, week, whatever comes, and my prediction is right.
The people who said it would be wrong never admit that they were wrong. The best they do is say "well yeah, what goes up must come down."
Yeah, I'm young, and yeah, I don't know it all.
Then again, I know quite a bit, and I don't appreciate being constantly talked down to by people that don't know their ass from their elbows. (gold to 54000? S&P to 450? Please! How about living in reality?)
And the people who took 50% cuts in their 401ks can't stand to see that.
You talk about "questioning" instead of blindly following?
I'm the only one questioning the consensus here. Everybody else follows the uber-bearish, gold bitchez, mantra.
What do you ever question, Turd?
Sure I don't know everything, but I'd put my skills up against anybody in an objective test anyday.
Give me your IQ test, or whatever else. You want to do mock portfolios? We can do that too.
At least I put my opinions on the line. You just snark up, make some wrong predictions, and then snark up again when I rub it in.
I'd be pissed too if I was a shorn sheep.
So pods... if this site isn't about money, or investing... what IS it about?
Making bunker survival plans for an event that won't happen?
I'd rather live in the real world.
Johnny, you just dont understand, we have been half shorn and we thought you
were our friend. Now go buy lots of gold and we can be friends again.
That is exactly my point in two sentences.
Brevity is the soul of wit. Apparently I have none.
You said what I think much better than I ever could.
Actually, you're paying WAY more than the spot value of gasoline.
Sure, but just because of taxes, mostly. There's a small profit margin for the gas stations in there too.
Price of gold on Sep. 10th, 2001, the day before the horrible terrible Osama bin Subcontractor attacked us because he hates our Freedom Fries: $271.50. Current price of gold: $1,243 - up 358%.
S&P 500 on Sep. 10th, 2001: 1,093. Current S&P 500: 1,058 - Down 3.%
This does not take into account the dividends that one would have gotten from owning the stocks but I doubt that it would make much difference. “Current” price as of 11:41 AM Aug. 27, 2010)
Gold up 358% stocks down 3%
Comrade peasants, we have been at war with the horrible terrible Islamo-fascists for almost nine years. Show me one war in all history without an increase in commodity prices or without an increase in the desire for gold, just one.
PS: Market for asteroid puts and calls has been taken over by robots. Details will be released as they become available.As first suggested on Thurs 26th, further upside for DOW/SP500 is expected.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
Yep!
As first suggested by Johnny Bravo!! LOL. And you, of course...
JB, I appreciate your insights and arguments here. The more facts you provide to support your insights, the better. However, you should also consider that not everyone has your same time horizon when investing. Some of us (myself included) have a fundamentals driven longer-term horizon. We believe that timing a rigged market is a fools game and that one is much better served by building a portfolio that is resistant to short-term time swing. For example, if one believes that gold is in fact going to 2,000 within a year, does a $20 swing make a big difference? If one believes that the gig is up some time between now and the end of January, buying puts for January on moves upward (like today) may miss a slightly better deal on Monday, but is it that big a deal?
JB, reading between the lines, I'm saying you may be picking up pennies in front of a steam roller. Wisdom and caution come with age, be careful.
BTW, did anyone notice the uplift in ECRI mirrors the uplift this time in 2008...it smells a lot like 2008.