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ECRI Declines, Passes Below "Double Dip" -10% Threshold Again

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The ECRI Leading Indicator Index just came at -10.1%, a drop from last week's -9.9%, once again inflecting into double dip territory. One can only imagine what the spin proffered by the index creators will be this time: it was suddenly very credible last week, hopefully that credibility persists as it reaffirms a definitive double dip yet again.

 

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Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:38 | 561868 Bigger Dickus
Bigger Dickus's picture

GET THOSE SHORTS IN BOYS!!!!!! I love the smell of charred central bankers in the morning.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:46 | 561888 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Willard: Are you crazy, Goddammit? Don't you think its a little risky for some IRR?
Kilgore: If I say its safe to short this bitch, Captain, then its safe to short this bitch! I mean, I'm not afraid to short this place, I'll short this whole fucking place!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:09 | 561960 bada boom
bada boom's picture

Since you mentioned it,

Why do I feel that I'm stuck at the Do Lung Bridge?

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 15:09 | 562695 thethirdcoast
thethirdcoast's picture

Soldier, do you know who's in command here?

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:58 | 561933 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Light eco news week next week. Would be a good time to ramp stocks up. Just sayin'...

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:27 | 562047 Navigator
Navigator's picture

Also, two POMO days next week...Tues & Thur.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 12:07 | 562207 ShankyS
ShankyS's picture

I agree add the promise of never ending stimulus and chicanery and the bears may get bruised again. We need a friggin LEH type catalyst. We'll eventually get a bunch of them, but till then extend and pretend (especially coming into the election) is more than likely to just piss us off even more.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:39 | 561872 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

No no Tyler, you have it all wrong. Now that the unemployment nightmare is over (see this morning great numbers) this leading indicator has suddenly morphed into a lagging indicator. Old news baby.

Mid Term Elections bitchez.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:48 | 561897 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

The employment numbers sucked...everone is staring at the seasonally adjusted numbers...they might want to check NSA...the over 800,000 quit looking for work.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:54 | 561919 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Sorry.

Forgot the <sarcasm> tag. I thought it was obvious.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:16 | 561996 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Sorry, I knew you were being sarcastic....I'm just cranky the pumpers are jumping up and down giving each other high fives when the data was really bad...they just don't look. I was agreeing with you without the sarcasm.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 14:57 | 562669 Attitude_Check
Attitude_Check's picture

If you look you might see,

If you see you might have to question your assumptions

If you change your assumptions you might have to change your mind

If you have to change your mind - you might have to change your choices and decisions

If you change your choices and decisions - you might be sad

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:32 | 562056 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

New program about to launch.

All unemployed are now "job counters" (JC) and paid by the government to go around and find out if people are working or not. Unemployment benefits will be phased out over the next 30 days as all collecting unemployment are now employed by Uncle Sam as a JC and given an official badge. 

If a JC finds someone out of work, then the JC offers a JC position to that unemployed person.

Problem solved.

  

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:49 | 561903 Jason T
Jason T's picture

Like the 4 year old with a birthday on January 1st will turn 5 years old, taxes from property to income to cigarettes to trees, will go up.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:56 | 561927 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Indeed CD, as you have come to symbolize, Cognitive Dissonance is necessary in this environment to avoid a crash and people taking to the streets

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:58 | 561932 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

TPC did a story yesterday where if you look at a chart of the S&P and you look at a chart of the ECRI, there is a strong correlation.

Personally, I believe that the ECRI correlates even more strongly with the Dow, as the chart looks a lot more like the Dow than the S&P, even though they are similar.

So, with the ECRI looking more and more like a derivative of the stock indices, it's only natural that it's down during a time where the S&P has been in a near term downtrend.

I don't necessarily consider the ECRI as a relevant indicator, since it's so closely linked to the stock market.  It's more of a lagging indicator than a forward looking one, since past market actions are considered, and not future ones.

I don't know what the other methodology that comprises the ECRI consists of, but it seems too correlated with the markets to have other indicators being much of an impact.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:08 | 561962 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

JB - I've read a couple of your posts lately. You've expanded your comments, which to me makes them more informative. I might not agree with the arguments, but at least there appears to be an attempt to contribute. I always like to read and debate an alternative opinion. 

As to your comment above, does the ERCI track stocks because they use that as a component, or because it's a good indicator?No way to know. One component of the LEI is stock prices, which to me seems like a circular reference. 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:16 | 561997 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Yeah, I decided to live and let live as far as the gold bugs go, and to try to make more relevant posts.

I know that the ECRI uses like 1/5 of it's components as stock indices, which would account for the correlation, but what about the other 4/5?
It is a circular reference in a way, and I agree on that totally.

Are the other 4/5 of the components of the ECRI just other economic indices that the stock market tracks, which accounts for an even larger correlation?  That could also be a possibility...
I'm not sure, but if you look at the charts side by side there is no mistaking that they correlate so much.  A lot of it could have to do with the fact that 1/5 of it is composed of the stock prices, and the other 4/5 is the data that the stock market follows anyway.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:22 | 562025 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Aren't the components a secret? Hard to love an indicator you can't reproduce, back-test, and independently verify. 

As for gold. I own some PM's physically. I realize that gold is another form of a fiat currency (though it does have some industrial uses). But it has a decent history as a store of value. Just a diversification for me. Not a fan of the FRN's...

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:47 | 562134 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

I personally believe that the price of PMs is set like any other commodity - by marginal price moves more than relevant industrial demand, or even more than correlations to FX movements.  It's why we'll see PMs up on days where dollars are up.

I don't think that the components are a secret.  I think that you can find the components, I've just never taken the time to look for them.

Here is an article that explains the components in better detail:
http://www.businesscycle.com/about/approach/

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 12:00 | 562187 MichaelG
MichaelG's picture

The WLI is based on six components: money supply, JoC-ECRI Industrial Materials Price Index, housing activity, bond market measures, stock prices, and job market measures. 

although

[t]he exact mix of factors within these categories is proprietary

http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/858/

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 18:50 | 563102 ATTILA THE WIMP
ATTILA THE WIMP's picture

Price of gold on Sep. 10th, 2001, the day before the horrible terrible Osama bin Subcontractor attacked us because he hates our Freedom Fries: $271.50. Current price of gold: $1,248 - up 360%.

Price of S&P 500 on Sep. 10th, 2001: 1,093. Current S&P 500: 1,105 - Up 1%

This does not take into account the dividends that one would have gotten from owning the stocks but I doubt that it would make much difference. “Current” price as of 4:30 PM September 3, 2010)

Gold up 360% stocks up 1%

Comrade peasants, we have been at war with the horrible terrible Islamo-fascists for almost nine years. Show me one war in all history without an increase in commodity prices or without an increase in the desire for gold, just one.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:14 | 561985 -1Delta
-1Delta's picture

have you heard of the bond market? or a yeild curve? Or weekly IC and Mortgage Apps?

 

In common sense -10 Prints 100% Recession

I know u r still in school, but dont think to hard

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:21 | 562024 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Yeah, but if you draw a St. Andrews pitchfork from the previous peak before the recession through the recent peak of 30 before the drop to -10, you could feasibly have a channel that is pointing upwards, with -10 just making a higher low on the way to an even higher peak of 50 in the next sixish months.

-10 does not print 100% recession.  It has about a 50% probability.

Mortgage rates are low because interest rates are low.  It's that simple.
The yield on bonds is low because it's helping us to keep from defaulting, which is a primary goal of the Fed at the time.

Mortgage applications are actually increasing, I've read.

What does me being a student have to do with anything?  I still read as much (or more) news than you do, in addition to my financial education.
I guess that one difference is that I can spell words like yield.

I don't mean to be a dick, but I'm tired of people acting like my education means that I know less than them.  That's why they call it an education, because I'm getting educated.
On top of that, I educate myself far more than school could ever hope to teach me.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:28 | 562048 -1Delta
-1Delta's picture

run the ECRI on a monthly average -10% print and ISM inv/new orders... same thing... odds are 0ver 90.

And there is no way in hell you have read or will ever read more than me... and that I will bet my life on.

I have more years in a hedge fund than you have books on your shelf... and more excel files than every cheap line you have ever put on a chart

 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:52 | 562150 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

You'd be shocked at what I've read.  You seem to forget that for every person that's made it in the world, there is somebody even hungrier that wants your position a lot more than you do.
Don't discount what I've learned, or what I'm going to learn.  I'm hungry, you're not.  That motivates me a lot more than it motivates you.

I'm not saying that you haven't read more than I have or anything like that, although I don't know.  I read a LOT of stuff.  One thing that I do know is that if you keep the attitude that nobody will be able to surpass you in knowledge that it will happen easily.

You have experience and I respect that.  Don't discount my experiences, however.

You will be surprised in the end.  My ambition exceeds most people's, and quite possibly yours.
I have something to work hard for.  You're already where you want to be in life.

For a movie reference, think of Rocky 3.  Sure, you're Rocky, and you're the champion.  But I'm Clubber Lang, training in my shitty apartment, eating nails for breakfast.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:57 | 562173 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Fly under the radar. Be unexpected. Let people talk about themselves. Learn from them. Nod. Let them brag. Don't meet them there. Deliver on your promises. Offer your assistance.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 12:09 | 562215 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Good advice.  Not always 100% doable, but it is something to aspire to.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 12:18 | 562243 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Yeah, I agree with both of you guys.  I think a major problem that I have is that I'm so eager to be the "next" champion (for the lack of a better word) that I sometimes go on the offensive before I'm ready.

It's not that I'm not going to BE ready eventually, it's just that I'm too eager sometimes to go out and prove that I am.

I should take the advice that you guys told me, and let the fire burn inside me until I'm ready.
I just feel like a starved pit bull in my life right now... and sometimes it's hard to control a starved pit bull.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 12:23 | 562259 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Ever read Sun Tzu?

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 12:47 | 562333 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

I have read the Art of War.

Is there anything in particular that you're referring to?

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 13:03 | 562380 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Just that sometimes you can win the war without even fighting. And that tactics/strategies tend to avoid the head-on battle, unless numbers really are in your favor... 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 13:11 | 562404 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Yeah, that's really the truth, and something that I'll have to learn to practice more with maturity.  I have read those things.
Prevention is worth ten times the cure (the doctor example)... know your enemy before you know yourself... and take advantage of the terrain, other situations, etc.

I don't know if astrology has anything to do with it, but like half my chart is in Aries.  That's a pretty war like sign.  I need to get more mature about confronting others though, because not everybody can be "destroyed" and even destroying doesn't mean victory.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 14:07 | 562457 batting500
batting500's picture

Hey Johnny (and others)

You seem to be well read and you said "I need to get more mature about confronting others...", let me throw a book title at you...Nonviolent Communication: A Language of Compassion by Marshall B. Rosenberg, its a short book that can change the way you approach dialogue, not just confrontational dialogue but all dialogue.  It is a awesome read, has been published in many languages.  Find it in a bookstore read the first few chapters...it puts into words some things you may already realize and present other concepts of language you may not have realized.  The book is like linguistic Judo...

Good Luck all...

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 06:04 | 563487 reading
reading's picture

You got the bull right...

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 12:38 | 562305 Snake
Snake's picture

+1000!!!!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 12:02 | 562194 -1Delta
-1Delta's picture

well the good news is i like ur attitude... and sometimes ur option on gold :-/

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 12:15 | 562233 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Well good, buddy!  I didn't mean anything bad by what I said.  I'm just saying... there's something eating me from the inside, and it's very valuable at this time in my life. :)

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 12:50 | 562337 No Mas
No Mas's picture

Now I am curious young man.  Exactly what is that for which you are so hungry?

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 13:13 | 562412 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

I want the life I've always wanted.

I grew up in poverty and came from nothing.  I was homeless by 16.  I've worked my entire life just to get to be sustainable and be able to take care of myself.

I just want the opportunities that I never had, and I'm hungry about trying to create them for myself.
I want it all, but I realize that I'll have to work harder than most to have it.

The only thing that will save me is being motivated and making things happen.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 14:13 | 562557 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

I used to be a lot more ambitious then I am now. After running a small business for 4-5 years, and watching my employees work less then I did and sometimes make more - while I missed my kids growing up - I've started to re-evaluate the meaning of life (for myself). Much of what I think passes for the American Dream (a big house, new cars, lots of stuff and toys) is really propoganda offered by the PTB to make us debt-slaves to the mega-corporations and banks.

Student loans are a perfect example of the corruption of the system.

The rush for material wealth is a mirage. The people I know that have less (but are self-sufficient) tend to be 'happier' then those that I know with money. Time > money.

Just my thoughts...everyone's dream is different.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 15:00 | 562678 functionform
functionform's picture

I agree with this.  I want to get to a place where I can pursue a passion without staring down a lifetime of debt.  To me, that's lunacy.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 14:49 | 562641 Ben Fleeced
Ben Fleeced's picture

+1000

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 14:53 | 562656 Ben Fleeced
Ben Fleeced's picture

.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 20:35 | 563218 Sisyphus
Sisyphus's picture

 

Some of you folks who just junk JB because you disliked what he said in the past, you need to grow a pair or develop a pair of gazoongas and post, before junking. It's easy to be a closet Rambos, you know. So, grow the **** up.

JB, this is for you. I don't know if you will ever read this post, because it is kinda buried. If I am not mistaken, you are in your early twenties and attending college. You aspire to be rich, if I am not mistaken, again. My friend, my past is almost similar to yours. I have worked my a** off to reach where I am today. Believe me, I am fortunate enough to be very successful; I have enough to retire, but I am still working. I can have almost all I want, but I am not ****ing happy. I don't know what it is that I am missing; I have almost everything I ever wanted, but ****ing happiness eludes me. The only thing that makes me happy is when I do something selfless. I cannot contain my happiness when I hear a child laugh, see beautiful women smile at me or hear the chirping of a bird in the wilderness. All non-materialistic. I am much older than you are, JB. If there is one piece of advice I can give you, it is this. Be proud of what you are, don't draw attention, stash away enough wealth and then get the **** out of the system while you are still young. Most people live to work, learn to work just to live, and that's it. You have age on your side, young fella, use it to your advantage and get the hell out. Aspiring to be rich and famous is not worth it and will not make you any happier. Take it from me. Yes, I am not stinking rich and I am not famous, but I have enough that can last a long time, but as I said, I am still a part of the system and feel miserable. If you are young enough, smart enough, diligent enough, clairvoyant enough, do the following: work hard for a few years, earn like crazy, stash your wealth way and, then, disappear - get the **** out of the matrix. There are tons of places where you can live like a king with the wealth you have created. Find one and melt away. I promise you, you will not regret.

 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 12:07 | 562208 MiguelitoRaton
MiguelitoRaton's picture

JB and -1Delta, you guys need to sit down over a beer. I'll bet you have more in common than not...

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 12:20 | 562248 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

I would love to, even though I don't think that there's bad blood between us or anything.

I bet there is a lot more in common with both of us than we realize.

The main difference is that he's where I want to get to.  I could definitely benefit from a mentor like that.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 13:25 | 562440 zero intelligence
zero intelligence's picture

Johnny Bravo needs to learn how to shut up.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 14:08 | 562546 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

You're the one adding no value.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 14:54 | 562664 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Randall agrees.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 15:48 | 562800 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Actually, I think that is what he has been saying in a kinder way.  Something tells me you have not read the comments fully.  You ran off the rails in the midst of a civil conversation. 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 14:57 | 562658 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Mortgage rates are low because interest rates are low.  It's that simple.

Uh, no sparky. Mortgage rates are low because THERE IS NO DEMAND FOR MONEY OR CREDIT because the people who do want it, do not want the associated risk in obtaining the loans. If there is DEMAND rates are higher to reflect that demand. This hasn't got one G.D. thing to do with interest rates being low. It's because there is no demand for credit hence no reason to squeeze the margins up.

Mortgage applications are actually increasing, I've read.

Again, you're a N.P.R. listener or too stupid to invest so mail all of your money to me now. Mortgage applications for REFINANCING are increasing. 49-55% of ALL applications are rejected or non-qualifiers. Y-o-Y week to week applications for PURCHASE are decling between 26-34% depending on the week.

Whatever school you go to should be burned to the ground for producing mentally retarded CNBCbots.

I need another beer after reading your shit.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:40 | 561876 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

But the seasonally adjusted employment numbers were good weren't they?...blither blither.....

I love how noone looked at the huge increase in Not seasonally adjusted Not In Labor Force....it was huge! +801,000....and food stamps for june crossed the 41 million mark (41.3 million). 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:02 | 561946 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Because those numbers show the real pain on Main Street. Those things are not discussed. Only corporate profits, better than expected, etc. It's all good. /sarcasm

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:12 | 561973 VK
VK's picture

Hey papaswamp,which table are you looking at for the data? 

EDIT: Ok found it. That is a huge discrepancy!

Seasonally adjusted, bitchez!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:19 | 562014 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

...all the way at the bottom.

http://stats.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab6.htm

I thought it was interesting the only increase in the size of civilian workforce was those with disabilities. Was there a hiring incentive for this work group that kicked in in August? Otherwise the size of civilian workforce declined.

 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:18 | 562008 JuicyTheAnimal
JuicyTheAnimal's picture

Food stamps increasing is a good thing isn't it?  Because hey, more free food for more people.  

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:41 | 561880 Pillage
Pillage's picture

looks like today will be a spike top unless bulls are confident in those b/d model jobs to hold over a 3 day weekend

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:00 | 561942 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

It looks like the weekly charts are starting to get worn out, but that the monthly charts still have some room to grow.

I consider today's breach of 1100 on the S&P to be bullish, but I think that we might have a couple of days of pullback soon before we go higher.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:10 | 561969 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Light news week next week. Good time for a ramp on stocks. Especially with the strong manufacturing ISM and "better then expected" NFP taking the double-dip "off the table" (not that I agree with the latter). 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:26 | 562040 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

I personally believe that this IS the double dip, myself.  That we're seeing the slowdown in the economy right now, and that we won't see much of a drop in the future.
That's just my personal opinion, and it really isn't based on that much.

I have noticed increases in the number and quality of jobs being posted, if that means anything.

I'd be weary in the short term about the markets, as I think we just may see a couple of days of bloodletting before we go higher.  We've reached the 61.8 fib on the weekly charts, and the STO is looking exhausted on said weekly charts.
The monthly charts have a STO reading of 60-ish and rising.  Those indicate better times ahead.
I think that we can get at least to 1120-1130, or even higher, but I don't think it will be in a straight line.
We could be in for some mediocre days at the beginning of the week next week.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:52 | 562156 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

I don't know the direction of the markets over the next days/weeks/months. But I don't think we've reached anything close to the bottom in the economy. The structural issues are VAST, including mammoth debts, structural unemployment, demographics, etc., etc. My baseline case is a depression, with some downside to a SHTF-type event. There's no need envisioning a Mad Max, because why bother (seen "The Road"? - who cares about something so depressing?). I'm Gen X and don't think my generation (or those after me) will be willing to continue to live as debt slaves forever. Many social institutions are slowly breaking down. Geezers have been saying that for years, but we might be hitting some tipping points. 

I envision a muni default, EU bank default, Greek default, etc. and the whole thing will fall apart. We were hours from a banking crisis when AIG was saved, and nothing's been fixed since then. So, I think it will happen for real this time, since they won't be able to play by the same text again. FNM/FRE/FHA originated/guaranteed 95% of all mortgages this year. Not a real economy. Illinois has $5 billion in UNPAID bills. Just haven't paid them. 

The one chart to look at is total debt-to-GDP across the economy over the last 30-60 years. A huge acceleration since 1980 or so, with another jump at 2001. I argue that all of our economy since then has been a false debt-fueled mirage. We can't go back to that, so we have to de-leverage before we grow again. 

Nice posts though. Keep up the arguments, as I would like to see the other side of the coin...

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 12:17 | 562239 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

You are correct in the underlying problems not being fixed.  Just because the problems aren't itemized in the daily news blasts the average Joe (present company excluded) assumes, "Hey, fixed it!".  Not.

It's like a disease that flares up from time to time in different body parts, but internally the body is being destroyed.  No open, weeping, bloody sores today?  Everything is great!  Eventually the patient falls over dead and everyone is shocked.  "He was so vibrant and optimistic!"  Right.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 20:11 | 563196 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

He was always such a friendly neighbor.  I would've never suspected him of being a ax-wielding serial killer!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 12:32 | 562286 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Hey, I like being able to talk to somebody that's not like "YOUR A FAG JB!!!11!!!"
LOL

Anyway, I'm Gen Y, as you probably gathered.  I have a little bit of a different take on things, and I think that I'm a little bit more optimistic.

First, I agree with you that our generations aren't going to sit around and take the shaft all the time, while the geezers that offshored our jobs and made America worse off sit around collecting government benefits, social security, free healthcare, etc, etc.
I think that a lot of people in our generations are pissed, and that there will be some paradigm changes.
How sorry can we feel for the elderly, if they are the ones that bankrupted America, and sold out its jobs for a bonus check?  Not that sorry, right?

On the other hand, I feel like a lot of the problems that you mentioned can be corrected without such radical problems occurring.
Sure, there are huge debt ratios, but those ratios were all sustainable before the recession started.  If we could only inflate back to where we were before the recession, the debt problems, and deficit problems would take care of themselves for the most part.

The reason why I believe this is that this recession has changed people's attitudes about debt and spending so much that I think we can have a period of deleveraging and slower growth, just as long as people have the means to pay their debts down.
If you inflated the situation back to 2007 levels, people wouldn't make the same dumb choices.
Revenues would feed on themselves and fix a lot of the budget problems.  People would naturally take care of their deleveraging of debt.
I do envision a scenario kind of like Japan, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing.
Japan still has nearly full employment, and people can take care of themselves.
We can keep doing the QE and keep reflating, and people will still deleverage.

What we really need is a paradigm shift in thinking what's really important.  Jobs are important.  Tax cuts for the top 1% are not.  They didn't create jobs for the last ten years, so why should we expect that giving the people who offshore jobs tax cuts will help us in the future?
We need a shift of wealth back to the middle classes.  Strong middle classes equal a strong economy.
I think that once we have our strong economy, the mood in this country has shifted so much that the structural problems will get solved as well.

I think that there's going to be some slow growth and some malaise, but that it isn't going to get as bad as a lot of people believe.  I still have faith in America.

Nice posts yourself, it's been good talking to you this morning.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 13:10 | 562398 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

I enjoyed the conversation as well...

Nothing wrong with being optimistic...

I don't think we can reflate. It won't be the right kind of inflation. I think we have painted ourselves into a corner. Fractional reserve banking, especially leveraged with derivatives (what one quadrillion notional outstanding) has a mathematical end point. There will have to be a restructuring. The paradigm shift you discuss. But it will not be a smooth transition...

Until the next time...


Fri, 09/03/2010 - 14:43 | 562630 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Well let me give you some astrology education. The generations are made up of the long slow moving outside planets. But the most important is pluto placement. Baby boomers are mostly made up of pluto in leo and they are trying to be special and leaders and all that crap. The gen x-ers are made up mostly of pluto in virgo and they are trying to understand and perfect and prepare understandings for later generations. After them you have the pluto in libra's. Who can't operate in equal power relationships. They either make other people ego extensions of themselves or allow other people to make them ego extensions. This is followed up by the pluto in scorpios which are learning who they are and who they are not and who they can not be. The limits of transformation. Babies are hitting right now that are pluto in sagitarius and they will mess things up big time because they are aliens. They come from different cultures and are born into different cultures. So they will feel that they don't quite fit in because things work slightly differently. So they will likely say try to transform america into India because it's what they are comfortable with. Or try to turn russia into china because it's more cozy to them. It will be a massive cultural mixup which likely won't happen because it will be decided to kill things out of control long before then.

The problem will be increasing intensity. The drop outs will drop out harder, the fighters will fight harder and the transformations will all get screwed up because most of them will simply put people on the limits and keep them there and they won't ever come off the redline.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 14:59 | 562675 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

I'm waiting to see if we roll over in the last 30 mins of trading. If not, it will be next Friday for sure. Once 1100 to 1110 fails, this biotch has 1001 written all over it and then some.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:41 | 562073 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Fundamental analysis?  Earnings?  Technical analysis?  Charts?  We don't have a prayer when Ben has his finger on the button under the table. 

You can take the ghosts of Graham, Dodd, Edwards, and McGee, as well as every CFA on the planet to manage a portfolio.  I'll take one insider at 33 Liberty and my performance will wipe the men's room floor with your's.

Love your spirit, kid.  Now get back to class.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 12:35 | 562296 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

I DO need to get back to my work... LOL

I don't disagree with you.  What I do believe though is that we can swim with that tide instead of against it.

I think that so many people know that there are manipulators (and there are).  I think where a lot of people have the wrong idea is that they want to fight against the manipulation.  You can't win.

The only way to win is to swim with the tide.  Embrace the manipulators.  Take away their advantage.  Don't let them steal your hard earned money.
The more people get on their side, the more they will lose their advantage and have to get on the other side.
In trading and the markets, the minority always wins out eventually.  If the majority always won, there'd be no money left to transfer.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:42 | 561884 oklaboy
oklaboy's picture

chart must be inverted.. has to be.. Barry sez all is well, and Little Timmy if flying back from Vacation to save us alllllllll...

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:59 | 561940 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

Actually Timmy was standing beside the President this morning while discussing our new paid for stimulus lite. Incredibly the President actually took 2 questions this morning. The moment he got the " Do you regret calling this recovery summer?"

  He knew it was time to abort mission.He informed the press that he will answer a few questions next week and back to the BBQ with Tim & Lar.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:06 | 561954 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Look for this to be a season for "stealth stimulus": just like with the 09 bailouts, the headline grabbers are just the tip of the iceberg (RV manufacturers got bailouts). So they'll stuff a stocking here and grease a palm or two there. They know they need lots of money on hand for the 800+ "Troubled Banks" on the carefully leaked list. 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 13:52 | 562503 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

all of the un-spent "stimulus" money coming out of SanFranNan's handbag to attempt to stuff the work channels ahead of the election.  1934 redux.

- Ned

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:43 | 561886 HEHEHE
HEHEHE's picture

Wait a minute?  The gubmint jobless number came in to the upside?!?!  Something don't jibe!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:11 | 561974 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Actually -56K, with all the BS removed, but all that counts is the hype for Stockholm Syndrome USA!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:45 | 561892 Chemba
Chemba's picture

If you want to understand what is happening in the US economy, just go to a Wal Mart super-center (i.e. with grocery) or large supermarket (not in Greenwich CT, Summit NJ or Newton, MA if you get my meaning) in the morning on the 1st of any month.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:49 | 561905 silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

 food stamp card credits on the 1st.. Checks on the 3rd..Wal-mart is DEAD near the middle to the end of the month..

  

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:11 | 561975 Treeplanter
Treeplanter's picture

Wal Mart raised prices 6% recently.  While their TVs are marked down.  We have deflation at Home Depot and Lowes.  We can get by without new carpet, appliances, etc., but for the things we have to have, inflation is already here.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:00 | 561941 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

And add to the list: go to downtown restaurants and clubs in NYC on the last week of the month...dead as people scrape together rent money.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:13 | 561979 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Chemba theres a large Chinamart near me, this morning at 9 the place was dead-empty. 3 years ago that parking lot was over half full, at midnite every day!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:39 | 562096 Ms. Erable
Ms. Erable's picture

More anecdotal evidence of 'recovery' for you:

I run my own business (small, and getting smaller). I've recently had to accept part-time work in a related field at another location, requiring a commute from the Inland Empire to L.A. twice per week. Friday evenings I leave said extra work around 4:30pm, taking one of the busier freeways (60). Three years ago, my commute would take in excess of an hour; it currently takes me 35 minutes, and traffic moves at a steady 65mph, barring accidents.

Met a friend for dinner last Friday evening at a normally busy shopping center at 6pm. Said restaurant was at about 1/3 capacity (though it did get a little busier later in the evenng - in the bar...).

No 'recovery' sighted in these parts, but it's interesting to note that some 90% of my remaining clientele either a) work for state or federal government agencies, or b) work for companies that have service/goods contracts with state or federal government agencies.

Wag the dog, bankster bitchez!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:51 | 562155 Kali
Kali's picture

Gov workers are the new "elite".  Seeing the same thing.  Friend of mine does child care.  All her clients are gov workers (says they are the most arrogant and entitled parents she deals with) except for 4 children whose parents (private sector) get a subsidy to help them pay for care.  She will lose those end of year, State is cutting subsidy to working (private sector) parents.  They will all go on welfare now, can't afford to work with no subsidy, no one to watch kids.

Builder friend, has some new work, new houses are ALL, you guessed it, government workers.  Very nice, big houses too.

My biz, the private sector income tanking, no one wants to invest in new processes/equipment right now.  Picked up a couple gov contracts, only "growth" in revenue stream right now.  The paperwork makes the contracts almost not worth doing.

 

 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 12:13 | 562228 Ms. Erable
Ms. Erable's picture

Yeah, I have a few service contracts with some of the local charter schools (who normally pay 30-45 days late). When I call to talk to the AP department, I always get the sob story of how  their funding has been reduced by almost 15%. I tell them I don't really care, since my 'funding' has been reduced by almost 50% over the last two years. Never mind that they're my tax dollars to begin with... at least I get some of my money filtered back to me. Fucking bastards.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 12:18 | 562242 Kali
Kali's picture

Yup, have a couple gov worker friends, crying about having to take one furlough day a month.  I'm playing world's smallest violin for them.  That's how I feel about the gov contracts, that I normally would not accept.  At least I'm getting a small portion of the tax dollars I pay back in shitty little revenue, gotta pay for all those gov paper stampers jobs, gov admin overhead on one of the contracts is 40%!  If admin overhead in my company was that high, I wouldn't have a biz.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 14:02 | 562528 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Couple of weeks ago, Bloomberg radio had an interview with an individual attempting to predict WMT sales using daily sattelite shots of the parking lots and comparing YoY, QoQ, etc.

But then the guy revealed that he has a PhD in Econ ;-)

- Ned

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:50 | 561908 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

This good people at ECRI have announced that, due to clear errors in their model's ability to capture the rapid growth occurring in the country, they will be adding their own birth/death adjustment to ECRI values going forward.

 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:54 | 561920 yabs
yabs's picture

that should be good for stocks

not only have we more manufacturing and less jobs lost but this indicator will mean

QE2 as well

party on

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:56 | 561928 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

This cannot be correct. I just turned on CNBC for 15 seconds and they had a guy on who was telling me how overpriced bonds are and how underpriced high quality equities are. Such a shock to see everyone on CNBC with the same tune. My only question is this..

If all these guys who run money have been saying the same thing for months nowand have evidently been buying than why are the markets not moving higher with 80% bulls?

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:01 | 561945 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Because the markets are technically driven, and not fundamentally driven.

This is true on the downside and the upside.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:09 | 561965 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

No, the markets are driven by a couple of criminal Zionist throwing granny's pension at propping the 50% overvalued garbage!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:17 | 561999 Treeplanter
Treeplanter's picture

I'm actually a Buddhist Zionist throwing my Army brat inheritance at undervalued gold miners.  See you in a Muslim free Jerusalem!  I don't know that other guy.  May be Mossad.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:27 | 562045 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

No, the markets are driven by high frequency computers that use stochastic calculus and chart patterns to determine the next move.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:32 | 562055 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

No, the markets are driven by a few crooks who have set computers to read headline key words to pump the garbage on.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:43 | 562118 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Nah... the algorithms pick up on the movement of the "dumb money", which reacts to the headlines.  That's what I believe.

Of course, all the computers see is advances in prices and better technical indicators.
I think that it acts on the derivative of the headlines, which is market action, instead of the headlines themselves.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:02 | 561948 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Since the crisis they only talk the talk.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:20 | 562022 drheywood
drheywood's picture

I guess you can manipulate people into buying all kinds of crap, until they're broke. I suppose that's a "physical" limit. Can't doctor your way around that. Although it's somewhat amusing watching people try. You can almost see their frustration. "Why isn't this working?! It did before! Come on people! Make me rich once more! *big phony smile*"

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:57 | 561929 septicshock
septicshock's picture

I know the spin. Oh, I know the spin. It wasn't as bad as we thought. Or how about it's pace of decline has slowed and looks to be at an inflection point.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:58 | 561934 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

This time it's different.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:59 | 561936 Steak
Steak's picture

Happy Friday ZHers.  A little musical fiber to move the day along

2cool (4skool) <ass-kicking>: http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=12689F04C0CEEF6C 

up with the get down <funky fresh>: http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=4217E3682ABFEFB9 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 14:14 | 562559 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Thanx duuude.

Have a little Oregon love brotherman...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYzlQ4tVUXA

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:01 | 561943 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

First recession since 1937-1938 NOT preceded by a yield curve inversion. 

 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:11 | 561972 Teaser
Teaser's picture

can't have a yield curve inversion with Zirp.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:35 | 562068 -1Delta
-1Delta's picture

Japan has been steep for 15 yrs lol

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 14:18 | 562565 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

A -AA -AAA  Japanese style

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 13:37 | 562460 old_turk
old_turk's picture

Lizzy,

Since I had a bond deal going to market in July 2007, I have a rememberance of a 2/10 inversion in the May-June timeframe.

Unless you think the first recession has ended and the second one is beginning ... of course ... then, it's all the Fed, all the time.  It is quite difficult to invert in a ZIRP world (but not impossible).

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 14:19 | 562568 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Yep.  Same downturn, same start time...

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:06 | 561951 MarketFox
MarketFox's picture

Bloomberg, CNBC, Mass Media in general sells out to the highest bidders...Govt. Press = Propaganda....That's it....

Thank goodness there are some people around with real smarts....and real guts....

Thank you.... Tyler Durden

For the ONLY REAL NEWS....ZH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

How about ZH Internet Radio ?????

 

 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:05 | 561952 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

I don't know... has anybody considered that the ECRI can simply just be making a higher low before it moves higher?

If you come from a baseline of -30, and go up to 30, you could hit -10 and go up to 50 on the next increase and still be in a channel.

Maybe the current slowdown we're seeing IS the double dip, instead of it predicting a double dip.

This reminds me more of a mid cycle slowdown.  The charts kind of remind me of 1994.  We all remember what happened to the markets a couple of years later... 

I really believe that this IS the double dip, and that we're going to see some new growth in the next six months or so... 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:08 | 561961 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oh of course its set to JUMP higher! Fuktard!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:16 | 561998 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

JB made a reasonable argument with enough information in order to debate. Your comment became the troll comment. 

ZH will be a stronger community if reasoned arguments from both sides are considered. Otherwise, it's just a bunch of groupthink and people whining about how stocks are manipulated, etc. (which I believe they are). 

JB - where do you see the catalyst for growth? Every recovery over the past few has been due to an expansion of personal credit. But consumers are tapped out and de-leveraging. I personally see a slow rollover down, which leads to a catalyst to the downside (a EU bank run, a US muni default, etc.). 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:32 | 562054 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

I can't really put my finger on it exactly, but I FEEL the sentiments getting better.

I'm on campus a lot, and the recruiters are a lot more enthusiastic about hiring than they were last year.  I've also noticed a great increase in the number of jobs being posted and in the quality of said jobs.
As I'm currently looking to change careers at this time, I've been talking to a lot of recruiters, and thus executives, at larger companies in the area.
Many of them seem to be MUCH more optimistic than when I was talking to them a year ago.

Things just feel like they're on the upswing when you talk to others, you know?
I even met with an NYSE traded REIT a few weeks ago (maybe a little more than a month, I don't remember for sure) and they were even more optimistic than they've been.
Then again, they were looking for some deflation before they put more money to work.

One thing that they told me was that any time prices drop to what they believe to be "more reasonable" levels for commercial real estate, that everybody and their mother just jumps in and bids the prices up to where it isn't worth it for them to keep bidding.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 12:04 | 562201 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Fair enough. Animal spirits. 

5% of the homes in my neighborhood are for sale. Prices are off 20% - 30% and declining. Nothing is moving. House across the street's best offer is perhaps 50% of what it would have sold for 3 years ago. 

Restaurants are busy at peak times, but empty otherwise. I could go on...

Trouble is, time is the enemy of the recovery. The debt overhang and debt service are too high. Unfunded pensions too large. We need substantial growth, not just limping along. The debt rollovers are substantial.  

I do think there is a bid in real estate for prime assets. Take a look at the B/C strip centers. Getting more vacant. Rents going down. Cap rates up. 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 12:25 | 562253 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Gents, one of my businesses deals directly with many small businesses in the tri-state area. (I have a few out west, CA & CO, but not too many). All around the table, no sign of increase in sales/revenue, just the opposite. Sentiment towards building inventory or reinvesting cash into new products is nada. I continue to believe that comparing the state that the economy is in now to ANY recession we have had since the 80's just won't work. As you state Traderjoe, the structural issues are too massive this time.... and the likes of them haven't been seen since the Depression.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 12:43 | 562321 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

I live in Colorado.  The residential real estate market here is stabilizing, although I would admit that commercial is way overbuilt.

I also agree that sentiment on investing or building inventories is down, but it's improving.
The structural problems will be taken care of when the sentiment changes.  Sure, people are going to stay cautious and not take out retarded amounts of debt again, but there are already people starting to look forward, because they want to be the first out of the gate to take advantage of the next boom.
When we can change the sentiments in this country (which I feel will happen rapidly once the jobs start coming back, which I already see happening somewhat) that the boom cycle will be shortly behind it.

You have to realize that it didn't take that long for the economy to go from ROARING to BUST.
It takes longer to get people to realize that we're no longer busting, but once people realize this, the sentiment will skyrocket.

I'm just really optimistic in what I see in the jobs market and in some of the businesses I deal with.  The ice is starting to thaw.  Once others realize this, it might be too late, because we'll already be in the next boom.

As far as the structural problems, they are all sustainable with a new boom, and will even be eliminated over time.  Time heals all wounds... 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 22:06 | 563293 oldbold
oldbold's picture

If I think back, the year I graduated (1983), was the tail end of the 1970s recession.  My parents generation was quite gloomy, and my father wanted to talk me out of most things because "the economy is crap" and was going to stay that way.  He and his friends believed their gloom was well founded. They had all seen stronger economies, and they sure knew a crappy one when they saw it.  I was young, naive and thick-headed, and I believed differently. Within a year, my faith was rewarded with a great job offer as the bull market of the 1980s began to put down real roots in 1984. What a difference a year made

The question, to me, is this:  Is 2010 a repeat of 1983? Before anyone laughs, remember that in 1979 (just before the start  of a massive bull market)  Howard Ruff's "How to Prosper During the Coming Bad Year" was #1 on the best seller list, and commodities and gold were running on many of the same concerns we hear now.  In 1983 Reagan had been in office 3 years, but most people were still concerned. Yet anyone who followed Howard Ruff, would have missed the bull market of the1980s while living in their Montana bunker eating potted meat.

The same about face took place from the early 1990s, when things went from a bad property bust and slacker despair to the go-go Tech "Who wants to be a Millionaire" boom in a matter of 2 years

I believe that you might say yes, 2010 is a 1983/1993 pivotal year before a big upswing, while I may have a little too much of my father in me at this point, and I'm doubtful. I accept that cynicism is a byproduct of aging. 

I also believe whether or not you see recovery depends largely on where you are living (Uptown Dallas is a freakin Mercedes parking lot filled with bejeweled shopaholics, while Memphis TN seems mired in 2008) Not to get John Edwardsy, but there definitely are a few different Americas, experiencing very different realities at this exact same time.

Right now, the market seems to be reflecting the more optimistic America of Dallas and Palm Beach...the question, as in 2007, is will the other America once again make their presence known at the party, and spoil the festivities with fireworks of their own?

 

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 06:24 | 563494 reading
reading's picture

Back in 83 and so many other times people like to reference we had the ability for credit expansion which DOES NOT exist now...where will people get the money to spend?  That remains they key question which apparently doesn''t have an easy answer hence why no on discusses it.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 06:21 | 563493 reading
reading's picture

Are you two the same person? This "conversation" is seeming oddly forced at this point.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:19 | 562012 Treeplanter
Treeplanter's picture

Sheep, your manners destroy your credibility.  

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:29 | 562049 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Im not trying to gain credibility with you morons.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:20 | 562018 -1Delta
-1Delta's picture

when you run it on a 6 week rolling average it will give u a bottom in stocks ST

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:34 | 562060 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Really?  Hmmm.... I'll have to try that.

See, this is the kind of information that I come here for.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:09 | 561964 yabs
yabs's picture

its strange how hte media changed actually at the beginning it was all you would hear about. Financial crisis this, credit cruch that. REcession is here even before they announced one

I even remember a guy on CNN saying people have no idea how bad this is going to be when stoclks first collapsed. he said people wouldn;'t even be bable to afford to eat and that world trade is dying. he mentioned depression even then

Then only 3 months later all the media was talking about was the "global recovery"

its like they were all told to try and pump confidence back up

 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:17 | 562002 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yabs OF COURSE! Their MAIN concern is trying to get retail to come take all this garbage off their hands, and it isnt working. Theyre desperate to instill 'investor confidence' but thats gone, and the ONLY thing that could begin to correct that is arrest hundreds of Wall St and politician crooks and that will NEVER happen! So theyre pumping thin air! Only question is when will reality set in and they realize retail is NEVER coming back!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:15 | 561990 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Paycheck-to-paycheck consumers...

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:18 | 562010 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The 'consumer' is buying guns ammo and food, not BS overvalued stocks controlled by obvious crooks! The retail stock investor sheeple is gone, and theyll have to face that reality soon!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:18 | 562006 mitchrothschild
mitchrothschild's picture

unemployment is good.  gives the unemployed more time to shop.  shopping is good.  spending money you don't have is really good.

 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:18 | 562007 mitchrothschild
mitchrothschild's picture

unemployment is good.  gives the unemployed more time to shop.  shopping is good.  spending money you don't have is really good.

 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:20 | 562020 Biff Malibu
Biff Malibu's picture

umm yeah hi (bill lumbergh voice), does anyone know where to get NYSE upside volume and downside volume statistics intraday?  Or is that put out end of day only, thanks

 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:36 | 562069 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Look at advance-decline ratios?

CNBC might have them.  I really couldn't tell you though.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:21 | 562023 rle1221
rle1221's picture

double dip, not as long as Ben has paper & ink.    He will buy everything in sight until you can get the housing atm cranking again.                        

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:25 | 562038 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

NEVER going to happen! Housing bubble and free McMansion ATM days are gone.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:22 | 562026 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The 'improved unemployment report' should make the terminally unemployed shake with fear...it means the govt will now say 'We're growing jobs, go get one, your checks are cut off'. GUARANTEED thats whats next!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:22 | 562027 n2dark
n2dark's picture

a few 'minor' details of nfp

 

Reliability of the estimates

Statistics based on the household and establishment surveys are
subject to both sampling and nonsampling error. When a sample rather
than the entire population is surveyed, there is a chance that the
sample estimates may differ from the "true" population values they
represent. The exact difference, or sampling error, varies depending
on the particular sample selected, and this variability is measured by
the standard error of the estimate. There is about a 90-percent chance,
or level of confidence, that an estimate based on a sample will differ
by no more than 1.6 standard errors from the "true" population value
because of sampling error.
BLS analyses are generally conducted at the
90-percent level of confidence.


For example, the confidence interval for the monthly change in
total nonfarm employment from the establishment survey is on the order
of plus or minus 100,0001. Suppose the estimate of nonfarm employment
increases by 50,000 from one month to the next. The 90-percent confi-
dence interval on the monthly change would range from -50,000 to
+150,000 (50,000 +/- 100,0002)
. These figures do not mean that the
sample results are off by these magnitudes, but rather that there is
about a 90-percent chance that the "true" over-the-month change lies
within this interval. Since this range includes values of less than
zero, we could not say with confidence that nonfarm employment had, in
fact, increased that month. If, however, the reported nonfarm employ-
ment rise was 250,000, then all of the values within the 90-percent
confidence interval would be greater than zero. In this case, it is
likely (at least a 90-percent chance) that nonfarm employment had, in
fact, risen that month. At an unemployment rate of around 5.5 percent,
the 90-percent confidence interval for the monthly change in unemploy-
ment as measured by the household survey is about +/- 280,000, and for
the monthly change in the unemployment rate it is about +/-0.19 per-
centage point.

more @ http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm
Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:27 | 562043 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

All this forced market pumping is about trying to get 'retail' to take all this 50% overvalued market off the govts hands onto the retail public. Its not going to happen. Anyone buying into it will be completely destroyed in a flash crash when they reverse course and decide to create the panic needed for Q/E2. It IS coming soon!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:59 | 562181 walküre
walküre's picture

Lurking pumpers are junking you. lol

Agree that this market action is a pump & dump on a grand scale.

I disagree with you on QE. The corporates are flush with cash. They need to bleed first.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:30 | 562050 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Look at the ECRI and recessions chart.  For the last 40-50 years (however old ECRI is) every time ECRI <= -10.0 there is a recession.

 

100%

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:35 | 562072 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

EVERYTHING shows a total recession slide, EXCEPT for the totaly govt/central bankster manipulated equities markets! They think we're all stupid, and believe that stock markets=economy. Look at the BONDS! Look at METALS! Everything clearly showing we're in deep economic trouble, but even Zerohedge people want to focus on stocks and their next clear move upwards. Mind boggling!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:33 | 562058 walküre
walküre's picture

With stock market rallies like these, there is no need for QE2.

It's convenient to say the least.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:37 | 562079 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

But its based on NOTHING and they know it! They want markets up AND they need QE2, somethings GOT to break down here big!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:47 | 562138 walküre
walküre's picture

There is no urgency. There is nothing at stake for the decision makers. Their paycheques aren't affected anymore. Their circle has made lost wealth back. They own their homes and so on.

The political will for more QE is not there. Voters are not allowing more corporate bailouts.

Bernanke is an actor and he is getting tired of the same old script. Just when everyone had him pegged as the money printer, he will do a full make over.

The middle class is suffering. The lower class is beyond redemption. Sacrificial lambs.

The elite is getting richer.

What is so surprising about that in America?

Equal chances my ass. You're either in the circle or you're not.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 12:07 | 562210 Kali
Kali's picture

Yup

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:34 | 562061 AnonymousMonetarist
AnonymousMonetarist's picture

When Timmy G went to Euroland to pitch stress tests for what ailed 'em was it a set-up? After all, it is not so much a race to the bottom as it is a pace to a bottom. QE2 can't sail until Euroland hits the rocks again. We can't let their upcoming crisis go to waste.

If the U.S. stress tests were I.Q. tests, the EU tests were, in comparison, measuring sanity... as in over the long term only the insane would believe them.

For example did you know that part of most all big German banks balance sheets' consists of 'secret capital' (seriously that is what it is called) - loans from the state with non-disclosed terms. You didn't? Why, cause it's secret folks!

An example of German efficiency , they don't have to fight transparency all the way to the Supremes.

Sniffing down the banksters' rathole has already started on the Continent and believe you me, our national security apparatus, scratch that, the rating agencies, will step in whenever the planners and thinkers cast the 'appropriate' runes.

Ha! Mr .Money, one might say, the Federales could never plan so well. Certainly though they do plan, everyone does, as they paint themselves into the corner of the round-roomed recovery, fervently they beseech the Rhyming Gods to let the second easing mouse get the cheese. 'Tis but the matter of timing the trap.

Be that as it may ...let me interrupt this rant for something completely different.

It seems all the rage now to talk about depression, exhort the birth death model, and parse the cornucopia of fraudulence conveyance that is government statistics, with the only positive spin imaginable being some version of ' I may be going to hell in a bucket, babe. but at least I'm enjoying the ride.'

Yes, surprise, surprise, the demand restoration project is not working yet. And?

Let me spin a contrarian tale, the silver in the clouds of this approaching storm.

If you're going through hell, verily 'tis only one option, keep going.

When change is afoot you have two choices, you can either grab the surfboard and ride the wave or you can let it crash over you.

Do not count on government to save you, look in the mirror for your salvation.

I assure you that the majority of citizens on this planet do not have such an advantage.

As horrible as this will feel, in hindsight something wonderful is about to happen.

America needs to get its' mojo back, one citizen at a time.

Don't be afraid.

Let's face it, as Americans we collectively think history does not apply to us or at least we have mastered it- we have grown up as the dominant power, we have basked in the fruits of that glory.

As such we, the citizenry, although troubled still ache to believe that this is temporary, a transient blip, happy days soon will be here again...policies flowing from on high will mimic that optimism and in doing so will underestimate (at least 'officially') the dilemma and prolong the process.

My entire life have always rallied against the tyranny of petty knowledge. Folks that wield their 'secrets' like a club have always generated intense vitriol from this fella. Knowledge is nothing more than an acquired thing. You can learn anything if you put your mind to it. How? Just do it. Why? Because you can.

Now, more than ever in my generation's lifetime,a broad intelligence is critical. We have stuffed the pig on the scales of fate. Through our desire to be prophets we have ceased to be makers of our own fate. On a macro level but not for the individual.

Despite all the digital ink spent on the failings of America, especially in light of the ‘I Can’t Believe it’s not Capitalism’ Plan generated in response to the ‘What Just Happened Crisis’… hope is not dead, progress has not been outlawed, justice is not forbidden, and evolution is not off the table.

The fire of liberty exists, the embers of truth still glow. As long as one voice stands to speak truth to power,the dream of this country lives and can be expressed by each and every one of us.

We are Americans dammit, and that word, yes, still has noble meaning.

There is one blessing fostered upon Americans that can't be denied. We can reinvent ourselves. We are not beholden to anything other than our imagination, we can make out of clay what our minds and our hands desire. They can only take from us what we abrogate; they can only lie to us if we refuse to put in the work to know the truth.

It is not a question of being part of the solution or part of the problem. Change does not have to be consistent with someone else’s plan. Change comes from within. To make a difference outwardly one must first find that difference within.

Get off your ass America, over the long-term if you will it to be, your future is so bright, we'll all be shorting shades.

The hardest button to button, meatballs for nuttin, fiscal mcguffins versus a contrarian somethin'

Believe it and you will be it.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:36 | 562077 JR
JR's picture

Small businesses, i.e., independent enterprises employing up to 250 people, represent more than 99 percent of all U.S. employers, according to the U.S. Small Business Administration, and have created 64 percent of all new jobs in the past 15 years.

Yet, while the government’s Birth/Death model adjustments show there was a 115,000 add for small business jobs,  small business confidence from July to August experienced its largest plummet since November 2009.

This comes atop a drop in The National Federation of Independent Business optimism index reported August 10 from June's 89 reading to 88.1 in July -- the lowest level in four months.

The latest figures from the BLS  are blatant game playing, says Nathan Martin today on Economic Edge.

“There was a 115,000 add for small business jobs that were supposedly created, versus July’s 6,000!  That is a rise of 109,000 from one month to the next.”  Said Nate, “When looking at the data from last year…you see that the same games were played in the same months last year.  But then look at September of last year, it was a zero.  If they play fair (lol), it should be roughly zero next month, and that means we are setting up for the next report to disappoint.”

John Williams' data show unemployment still pushing nearly 22%.

At any rate, here’s how small businessmen surveyed really view today's economic growth:

Discover Small Business Watch: Small Business Confidence Plummets | August 30, 2010

RIVERWOODS, Ill.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Small business owners’ confidence in the economy soured significantly from July to August in the largest one-month decline since November 2009, according to the Discover® Small Business WatchSM. Business owners expressed a negative outlook for the economy in general and skepticism that economic conditions would get better for their businesses in the next six months.

In August, 62 percent of small business owners said the economy is getting worse and a record 55 percent of small business owners expect economic conditions for their businesses to be unfavorable in the next six months, up 10 percentage points from July. Those indicators led the drop in confidence from 83 on the index in July to 73 in August. …

Another indicator that dropped to its lowest point ever is that only 17 percent of small business owners said they would increase business development spending in the next six months, down from 28 percent in July; 52 percent said they would decrease spending, up from 45 percent in July; and 29 percent don’t plan any changes.

On the job front, 78 percent of small businesses have no plans to do any hiring. When asked about hiring over the next few months, 72 percent of business owners had no plans to add or subtract jobs, 20 percent said they were laying off workers and 6 percent planned to do some hiring. The percentage of small business owners planning layoffs is the lowest in the history of the Watch.

Other August Confidence Indicators:

·        53 percent of small business owners are experiencing cash flow issues, up from 47 percent in July; 43 percent said they are not; and 4 percent aren’t sure.

·        55 percent of small business owners expect economic conditions for their businesses to get worse in the next six months, while 20 percent expect them to stay the same, and 21 percent think things will get better.

·         62 percent of small business owners rate the current state of the U.S. economy as poor, up from 58 percent, in July; while 28 percent it fair; 6 percent rate it good; and 3 percent rate it excellent.

·         62 percent of small business owners say the economy is getting worse, up from 57 percent last month; 24 percent see it getting better; and 12 percent said it’s staying the same.

http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/email/headlines/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsLang=en&div=1770479315&newsId=20100830005287

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:38 | 562085 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Hey how about no more 3,000 word comments? No ones going to read that anyway. Brevity is the soul of wit.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:59 | 562183 JR
JR's picture

Thanks for your response. 

Okay, the comment is long but the representation we see in all the reports is extremely light on small business viewpoint and heavy on Goldman Sachs viewpoint.  And with the disaster in our economy revolving around small business, I felt facts and figures are long overdue and that Nathan and the other sources that I’ve looked at over the past hour or so need a little more light of day.  I’m just passing them on.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 12:11 | 562224 Kali
Kali's picture

Agreed.  Small bizzes are suffering big time.  I have been very fortunate, didn't debt finance anything in my biz.  If I had, I would be laying off my few employees and shutting the doors.  Thinking about it anyway, don't know why I am working so hard for nothing and paying for everyone elses free lunches.  Ant and Grasshopper.  The ants are disappearing and the grasshoppers are exponentially increasing.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:39 | 562095 Grand Supercycle
Fri, 09/03/2010 - 12:46 | 562325 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

I think that the chart pattern looks really similar to a 1994 style chart pattern.

I really believe that the triangle on that chart will break to the upside.  It could be now...

This IS the double dip.  It's just a pennant until we go higher... 

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 06:42 | 563499 reading
reading's picture

Assuming this "is" the double dip, what is the catalyst which will take us out of it?

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