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ECRI Finally Improves, Hits -9.2 From -10.1 Prior
The latest ECRI Leading Indicators data printed at -9.2, as it continues straddling the -10 level which is indicative of a double dip, improving modestly from last week's unrevised -10.1. At this point the Leading Indicator is merely feeding from market signals, and if the market jumps, so does the ECRI, and vice versa. Presumably a concurrent market is somehow supposed to predict the economic direction. Yet if one listens to Alan Greenspan, that is precisely what happens, proving that anything having ever come out of the Chicago School of Voodoo should be forever banned from actual practical implementation. Here is the overarching thesis of the Zero Hedge School For Non Robotic Trades who Wish To Learn To Trade Good: "The real EMT is really all about market manipulation higher, higher, higher. Any questions."
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Did y'all enjoy the 2 minutes this morning where the market was down? Good, cause it's over.
Yep, new highs are over. You got it!
All summer they've discounted the -10 reading saying the ecri is bunk.
Why should anyone care if it's better? More propaganda?
Oh, no, you misunderstand - when the ECRI falls to -10 or worse, it is obviously sending out a false call and is definitely not to be trusted... do not believe the doom and gloom sayers who point to it.
When the ECRI rises from -10 to -9 however it is a highly correlated and accurate indicator that has a perfect performance record and is signalling an imminent and significant ramp in economic prosperity for all, most particularly the middle class.
Now, do you need me to explain the birth/death model as well?
Ummm....this tastes nothing like champagne.
Fuck you, Alan; the state of equities is truly relevant to approximately 6M people, maybe 40M if you count retirement and pensions, the other 270+M could give a flying fuck.
They are perfectly capable of turning that equity into bonuses and not hiring a single soul (and who can blame them in the face of the demand void before them).
Yes we can!
And to imagine how many of our nation's "best and brightest" attended the country's "leading business schools"! No wonder we're screwed.
The entire plan from day one was to gamble desperately on goldilocks. So we'll get CPI data like today's, with only oil showing price rise.
The failure scenario is the EVENT. Some war. Some bombing of an oil terminal. Any singular event so that the elites can claim that "it wasn't our fault; who could have foreseen XXXXXXX.
The event will tear it all apart and they'll have their excuse. They'll even persuade themselves they are telling the truth.
You are looking at the growth rate here, which is unusually volatile the last 2 years (it hit +28% in 2009 but gdp growth did not reach an all time high, just like the -10% probably doesnot indicate a gdp decline, due to those base effects). Looking at underlying index it clearly warned for a slowdown. However it is in a slow uptrend since early july again, probably ruling out a double dip. If you believe in the value of the index of course..
Chicago is fine. The one thing they failed to teach was that the market learns and these quantitative discoveries cease being indicators and become market drivers as people trade them. Share buyback for one - used to be internal management was confident now that management knows people view it as a buy signal they use it to deliberately pump their stock...a la Lehman at one point. Another obvious one is the quants exploitation of various factors, as their numbers and assets increased they ceased to be outsiders taking advantage of the market but rather they became the market and drove down the factor spreads they needed while crowding into trades together.
Next I suspect you are going to tell me all consumers are rational including the one who has a $200,000 mortgage, three car payments and maxed credit cards on a janitor's salary. The main fault with Chicago, people are not rational consumers.
9.2! yeah! Great job, team. Head back to base for debriefing and cocktails.
Oh, wait, -9.2?
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