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ECRI Leading Indicator Breaches Critical -10 Threshold, Hits -10.5
If in addition to 85% of the economic data releases in the past month coming below expectations was not enough, the ECRI leading indicator has just came below the critical threshold of -10%, which according to Rosenberg has virtually assured recessions based on data from the past 50 or so years, hitting an annualized rate of -10.5%. And since even the index creators (and Ivy League tenured professors) are openly refuting the adverse implications of their own index (when they, and everyone were praising it when it topped out at 27.80 a year ago), one can be sure this is a rather dramatic data point.
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Has it ever fallen this fast before?
The slope down in 2008 looks similar. But don't worry, 2008 was a great year for the economy.
Yea but... it poped up to 30-ish on the rebound. Think of it like a cork in the bathtub. It will normalize.
perhaps expecting a pope up to 30 on the next rebound is a deus ex machina too far, god.
This screams BUY! This positively puts the nail in the coffin for QE2 and more printing of money! Load up on the commodity and equity train, buy leaps, leverage up and sit on it for a year right to that Ferrari!!! Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa booiiiiiiiiiiiiiii!
Not so fast.... if EU derails in the next couple of months you will see the deflation play in full force and it will be painful to see those leaps cut in 1/2
Ummmm Pamela I think your tits are getting in the way of noticing a bit of SARCASM
You'll be able to buy Ferrari for cents on the dollar from the Hollywood crowd that won't even be able to survive on making porn.
Fucking classic quote lol
Dude, Paris would never go down that road.
+ Length of John Holmes appendage
Has it ever climbed that fast before?
Oh oh - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T72TopWbXJg
Well, until it becomes a headline number "the market waits for", it means nothing, hey?
The fundamentals of the economy are strong to quite strong. We have reached a permanently high plateau. Properity is just around the corner. Etc.
irving fisher, first celebrity economist, october 1929
All the ECRI posts have been entertaining to read lately, if it's as credible as it's purported to be I was hoping we wouldn't see this day.
Great, now I'll have to stop at Target on the way home and grab some more lube.
Moin from Germany,
the same day Rosenberg gets temporarely bullish.... No kidding.....
Rosenberg’s 17 reasons to be bullish (seriously)http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/07/23/296721/rosenbergs-17-reasons-to-be-bullish-seriously/
The game never changes. Pump the info when it confirms your bias and disown the info when it's contrary.
The most powerful drug known to man is denial.
I would say Plausible Denial >)
LOL
What do you get when you mix Cognitive Dissonance with Plausible Denial?
A circle jerk that's immensely satisfying.
aaaaahhhhhh. Do that again darling. :>)
Turn Out The Lights!
The Party's Over!
What a perfect graph to describe Keynesianism in action.
The idiot-savants tried to borrow/print money and spend the 2008 depression into oblivion, by "jump-starting" the economy.
All they did was give a mega-expensive heroin hit to America, and the effect on the ECRI peaked in late 2009.
Since then, America has been on withdrawals, and now we are getting the shakes BAD!
And, the ECRI will end up right where we started in late 2008. Only we are now $Trillions in the hole.
Thanks, Keynesians!
You would think that the idiot-savants would get religion after witnessing this colossal and indisputable failure of Keynesian policies. No, Paul Krugman says the problems we are having now are because we did not borrow ENOUGH money, or print ENOUGH money. We did not spend ENOUGH money. That was the mistake. Keynesianism is just fine. We just chickened out and did it half-assed in 2008, and now we will pay for not printing $1quadrillion dollars like we were supposed to do...
It's not a failure of Keynesian theory, this is it's finest hour. This is not a double dip economy, its a double kick economy. Next stop the gutter.
That is great: Not a double dip economy (recovery), but a double kick economy.
AMZN down 8%
Their delivery infrastructure doesn't cover China.
MSFT record profit and stock down.
Meanwhile the jesters are entertaining the court all the while the royals and their advisors are preparing for the worst winter on record and trying to figure out how to save at least half their kingdom from starving.
Party on Garth!
All we need now for Q/E2 BS is a BIG market drop, right? Bernanke testimony already sets the stage for economic collapse, he said 'Hey, I tried to fix it but what do I know? 0% interest to infinity'...yes seems the coming days will be quite interesting indeed.
Hft's are on Euro trend mode..that is totallt nutz too , the Worlds largest stock mkt tied to direction of a foreign currency.
When this all goes South you'll see Senate hearings on HFT.. watch. It was those pesky computers.
Massive rally coming up next week...check out the shipping companies today.
Why? BDI has dropped like a dead elephant. Any positive guidance they give is debunked by reality.
Just WTF are they shipping, I wonder?
Does moving empty containers back and forth between continents count as "shipping"?
Another more logical explanation could be that the shipping companies are going to get massive government contracts to support the Navy during the coming WW3.
It's called "seasonality" and while some people smoke crack, blow the smoke up your butt and call it an opiate, in reality this is normal. From late July to mid-September the majority of Christmas merchandise is recevied from Shanghai Santa and distributed throughout the country and guess what? Shipping volumes increase (gasp) so imagine that. And when you have an excessively hot summer, there is more residential electrical consumption so guess what? Gasp, there are more coal orders shipped via rail to electric companies. And when Obama tells the government to order 40% of GM and Chrysler's production for August and September for government fleet use, guess what? "Gasp" rail shipments and truck shipments increase.
Reality is going to suck for those people with their mouth fixated on the tailpipe of this administration thinking that anything of any valid sustainability is underway. The nation is about to go swimming down a horrid, horrid path which will mirror 2008 but be far worse because the world and the citizens of the U.S. will lose total faith in our Central Banksters, financial system, and even more so in the government.
concise and lucid.
How many billions of debt sales on the table next week?
That should have an impact on the direction.
Has the bleeding of 37 billion in outflows this year to date stopped this week?
Is the course reversing?
I felt almost bullish about stocks yesterday. They almost had me. Then the Euro plunges and we're back to where we started in May.
All we need now is a flash crash as a prelude to the coming months.
But the real question is are they up on speculation, hope, or reality?
MOPEium
While the Baltic Dry Index is having a small surge, the BCI sub-index (Baltic Cape Index), wich tracks the capesize vessels, the larger ones, used to carry all that iron ore and copper to China, is still falling.
The small rise in the Baltic Dry during this week is credited to Panamax and Supramax sub-indexes, tracking smaller vessels:
http://www.dryships.com/pages/report.asp
How are the solar stocks doing today?
Stress tests were too easy. Everyone knew they would be easy, but not this easy. Even Dick Bove thinks they were dumb. Weekend news won't be favorable. Sell 'em for next week.
"Market will take off after Friday's monster jobs report."
-Leo Kolivakis
6/1/2010
Ignore it at your peril.
So according to the creators it's only a good metric when they say it's a good metric OR it's good when it's positive and no good when it's negative.
Ass clowns
Welcome to Econ101 and PolSci101. You just passed the final exam.
John Travolta as Helicopter Ben and the Federal Reserve Board meet to discuss the problem.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfN8OrCPZvg&feature=PlayList&p=AC2772CA17F0791F&playnext=1&index=10
Still, "Fuckin trippy!"
Are Ben and John T. members of the same church?
I am beginning to wonder why I bother with this site anymore.
Is it possible for any one group of people to be so consistently wrong?
Everyday, the economy is faltering. Then come earnings and for the most part, they are stunning. The real proof is in the pudding and that pudding my friends is the market. Take a look - it is as usual very much up.
There appears to be one reliable source on this site and that is Leo. The bears are doomed but just can't seem to accept reality.
A hint; there is to be no DOW5000 or S&P600 or any other such nonsense. The lows of the year have been placed. Get over it. The man Obama and his cohorts pulled it off and now will oversee a growing economy, without regard to all of your "indicators" or high unemployment.
Another predection: The dems will hold power in both houses after the mid-terms. Nancy and Harry will be in place and given their track record so far, it looks like we are in for some vewry good economic times.
Want to tell me they haven't pulled it off? You have your indicators and I have mine - the market. Yours will let you read them at night. Mine will buy me a second aircraft soon enough.
Sucks to hear the truth. But even the ZH'ers can be educated as I see Leo trying very hard to accomplish.
Get ready for that run up - it is on the way.
Good luck with your investments. Trusting Obama to "pull it off" is a brilliant strategy. He's displayed such competence so far.
With so many unemployed, no sign of jobs being created. Who is buying, and who will be buying come Christmas holiday season? Additionally, what about our debt? We are trying to support even more people with less revenues. This is starting to become the day of reckoning that so many financial professionals feared for many years. Even "smart money" has been getting out of the markets. Don't forget that in 2007 people started yelling from the rooftops of how the market will crash and yet we hit our highs in 2007.
Ask Apple and BMW "who is buying." Ask UPS, CAT and MSFT "who is buying."
When corporations start to lose money then I'll buy the notion that things are bad. Until then, you take your indicators and I'll take mine. To date, the prevailing wisdom here has simply been wrong.
Are people unemplyed? Well of course. Are people still emplyed? You bet your ass. Far more have jobs and money to spend than don't and they are buying stuff. More than we have been led to believe on this site, that's for sure.
Remember that Q2 earnings are a trailing idicator. If all you do is look at earnings and not macroeconomic indicators, you miss the boat ala 2007. You are on one side of the fence and I am on the other right now, so that makes a market. So sit back and enjoy the show and love life.
As long as I'm living it, I'm loving it!
you remind me of buying prada for the chippie in may based on late april purchases of bp and aapl.
Chinese consumers have been buying BMW en masse just like Americans did in the hay day of the American housing bubble.
Enjoy while it lasts. China is the last domino to fall. They're expanding into Neverland with inventory that either nobody needs or can afford.
Consumers in Europe and North America are saving. They've reduced their spending because despite all the Hoopla and the magic of the stock market, they're just not coming back to the retail and maxing out their credit cards to purchase shit that depreciates.
Increased unemployment is THE factor in this balance sheet recession.
The bleeding of employment hasn't stopped which is a bad sign.
If this was the Eighties, I'd say you have a point. We're 30 years later into the debt spiral and cannot recreate another sustainable bubble to float us for the next 10 years.
But why do I bother. How many ipads and iphones have you bought for your family?
Article in Bloomberg yesterday that car sales in China have slowed dramatically. Where there was once a waiting list and a substantial premium paid to skip to the front of the line, there is now no waiting list, and there are both discounts and giveaways to sell cars.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-21/china-car-dealers-proffering-ip...
As many as we want.
Question for you? What difference does it make?
This site has been preaching the death of this market and economy for as long as I have been reading it. The dominos of Europe and China will fall. Things are going to collapse. The end of civilization is upon us.
Well I am calling ZH a site of pure BS.
I take a look and even the lowly damn CRM is sceaming up. Even the lowly DOW is ticking up again (and again and again and again) Christ people, are you so inflexible and ignorant that you can not see the truth? Things are not bad, they are good. Are folks out of work. Hell yea, but that's just too damn bad for them as the rest of the economy is picking up steam and hauling ass. Do you not realize it is obvious we don't need the unemployed to grow, grow and grow some more.
Tell you what. Come back with your tales of woe when somebody somewhere starts to lose money. Meantime, you'd better get on board or get out of the way of this equity train because it is about to haul ass up until Uncle Ben says stop.
My dear fellow, you are wrong. The western economies are stuffed and they know it. Just seen Bernanke yesterday, looking like he was dying and not slowly. So different from the confidence he displayed evn a year ago.
Your error is in believing that because something has not happened yet, it will not happen. The western economies CAN rebuild themselves; but they are not actually doing so at the moment. Nothing on this site that I have read holds that the western economies are incapable of rebuilding themselves; rather, the site's message is that they are going the wrong way about it and therefore disaster will ensue.
What, precisely, makes you think that the actions being taken so far will result in a strong set of USA and European country economies? It takes a considerable time to wreck an economy, even one as small as Hungary or Zimbabwe. Rich western countries can live off their fat for a considerable time before disaster strikes. But, given the policies being adopted, strike it will.
If you do not want to accept this is true, please try to explain to me (for example) how the USA is going to honourably discharge its huge amount of borrowing? Lots of other questions where that came from too.
Do not deduce from the fact that most people are still doing OK that the system is therefore NOT starting to fail. Most indicators indicate that it is. The rational man apportions his belief according to the evidence, and the evidence shows the economies of the west are under huge stresses which the policies being adopted are not relieving. Leaving aside the "candle under the thermometer proving that it is a warm day" that the stock markets have beecome, where is your rational basis for the fact that the western economies are doing well?
I was bullish, til March of this year. It seems too much optimisim was and still is priced into the markets. I am by no means a permabear, but I still do not see sustainability. Too much contraction in money supplies, credit tight, shadow inventories of homes, further growth in unemployment, food stamp applications increase in states, and states are still going broke and are about to tax people to death. Once there is some actual reversal in the macro data that counts, then I will believe in the prices again.
No those that are employed are not still doing OK. People are worried about their jobs, and saving for a rainy day in droves.
Whatever. I still refuse to participate in the economy except for all that is essential.
No more credit, no more debt, no more toys.
Certainly no purchases of European or American patent technology that's assembled in China for a few bucks at 1000% mark-up.
Enjoy the show and the charade.
No Mas: (PISSani) I can't wait to see you impaled upon the very "hope" that you are hanging your proverbial hat on. If you are taking this "market" as your signal that all is good in the world you are looking at a flawed indicator. Volume and volatility are proving day after day that this is fabricated. High speed computers, borrowed money and incestuous PD trading are the only things giving you an illusion of recovery. Housing numbers prove you wrong, unemployment proves you wrong, consumer confidence proves you wrong, ECRI proves you wrong, Treasury yields prove you wrong, Libor proves you wrong, small business proves you wrong...I could go on. You and the merry brigade will be crushed when grim reality finally falls on the Street: High octane growth is going away for a LOOOONG time. Deflation is here and it ain't leavin' any time soon.
I agree with you in the long run.
In the short run, there is no political will to pre-emptively start QE2.0 until there is a "crisis" of some kind. Once the Dow crashes a good bit (maybe not as low a 5000, more like 8000 or 7000...), then there will be political will for QE2.0. Then your melt-up scenario can begin.
Inflationists and deflationists on this site basically agree...except on the timing. Deflation first, inflation next.
That is a very good point. A real reset is required to have sustainability, then up-up-up.
Exactly
Pray tell: Why do you bother with this site? Do you only look at earnings and the the equity markets to form your opinion? This site posts much more than that, maybe you should "bother" with this site in greater depth.
What depth Dapper Dan? How deep does one need to go when the depth only reveals the greater error?
Watch and learn. The recovery is upon us and while I doubt anyone on this site would recognize it, it is here and will soon beat the bears to a bloody, smoldering pulp.
I short when it is called for and long when it's not. The idea that you would short this recovery is foolish. But for those who like to lose money in transaction; short this market. For those content with simply losing the opportunity cost associated with the ramp up soon to come, enjoy your sub-par returns.
"The recovery is upon us"
Thanks, you made quote of the day.
Which church do you attend where they preach this stuff? I mean this is sounding prophetic! Almost reminds me of Bagdad Bob telling the Iraqi people that American tanks would never roll into Bagdad.
Seriously dude. The market is manipulated. Today more than 10 years ago with the help of computers. But you're right with one thing. Shorting this widely propagandized "recovery" is suicidal. Although today seems to give good entry points and next week looks bearish. S&P just cannot jump that 1195 hurdle and stay there.
LOL
There's no use arguing with him. As far as I can tell, the only evidence he can suggest is that 1. the market is going higher, therefore the economy is recovering; and 2. earnings have been beating 'expectations' therefore those selective representations of the economy (large multi-national companies) must mean the economy is getting better.
Both of these arguments are self-referrential. That is the bullish argument.
I love the "earnings are going higher" BS, 40% of earnings MISSED either on the revenue or the EPS, 40%! Sure, Apple hit, sure CAT hit, T, etc., but the tell tale sign that companies are missing is that CNBC is not running their "Earnings Board" this quarter, why? They sucked ass, that's why. No Mas wants to believe the Democrats saved the day, fine, that doesn't make it true. He may be right, the markets may head higher, but it sure is not based on their fundamentals, that's for freaking sure. I actually hope he is right and the Dems do hold Congress, it will guarantee that we will never have another powerful Democratic power again in my lifetime. They fucking suck and he is a moron.
"the recovery is upon us"
got any evidence to support that claim or you just believe in this on pure faith, wishful thinking ?
And No, the markets do not qualify as evidence. They are not leading indicators of economic conditions, just check how well they predicted the 2008 recession. It's going to be the same thing this time around.
On the other hand, here's one fact for you do meditate : there has never been a sustainable recovery without rising private debts. This assertion is supported by centuries of economic data. Now private debts are decreasing, we are now in what is going to be a very long phase of debt deflation because private debts were in 2007 at bubblecious astronomical levels and couldn't rise any more. It took 30 years to blow this bubble, and it's going to take at least a decade or two to deflate it. And during that time there will be no sustainable recovery.
The ECRI WLI is just one more data point that confirms that there was no sustainable recovery.
Two dead-end wars with no end in sight.
Federal deficit
State and muni deficits
Real estate (residential and commercial)
FHA, Fannie, Freddie
Unemployment (w/continued losses from state/muni layoffs)
Tapped out consumers
GoM leak and its effects (both economic and ecological)
No Mas - I'm not sure if you're trolling or drunk, but I don't see a recovery on the horizon. Frankly, I'm surprised TPTB have held our ponzi economy up as long as they have.
Oh well, while the rest of us are worrying, you're having a good ole time. It seems that ignorance truly is bliss.
Thanks for playing, no mas.
Your prize is located right behind the curtain.
Watch your step as you enter, though, as the drop is slightly steeper than it first appears.
Leo will be waiting for you.
Your measure of success is the market? And you think the last decade has been a success? Ok.
yikes.....what a treat you are. That aircraft you're eyeballing, would that be the kind that hauls people or the kind you glue together and put on a shelf next to the other one?
It's an Eclipse - the airplane with the revolutionary engines (oh, maybe not) that's going to revolutionize the airline industry (oh, maybe not), and make all of the investors really rich (oh, maybe not). First they raised $400+ million, then got a ton of deposits. Then filed Chapter 11. Then converted to a Chapter 7.
Oh, there was no bathroom on the plane.
http://news.cnet.com/Gates-a-big-investor-in-aircraft-start-up/2100-1008...
HOW DARE YOU!
The little bear cubs are a sensitive group. (whispering: Team Tyler will ban a user for the mere mention of a bull run). Shush. Get on board. Fragility, evil algos, black swans and such. The borg will not tolerate such outbursts.
No Mas, new handle?
No Mas reminds me of Johnny "Master Bates" Bravo
No, we converted Johnny Bravo to the team.... perhaps DMA trader... impossible, the grammar is too good.
Is it not possible both the Leo/No Mas group and the bear group are both right? I mean the Dow is at about the same level it was 11 YEARS AGO, not adjusting for inflation or for the many stocks that have been removed from the DOW 30 these past 11 years!!. The NAZ is off close to 60 percent from its march 2000 intraday high of around 5200. Millions of americans have lost their jobs and millions more toil for garbage wages. Yet the rich are richer than EVER... As long as one looks to artificial indexes such as the DOW to indicate prosperity, and trades accordingly, one can make money. In fact one can make lots of money by this method. especially if the plight of the country as a whole is not one's primary concern.. and that is the rub isn't it.. i mean, is not stock speculation ultimately a zero sum game where wealth is not created nor destroyed but rather transferred. if all Leo amd No mas are concerned about is getting over on a daily or hourly basis in their equity positions they might do quite well going forward. why not? They are simply betting on artifically created indexes to rise rather than fall. That is all that is occurring. it is quite possible these indexes can continue to rise in the face of HELLACIOUS human misery and carnage on the ground. in fact, they may rise PRECISELY BECAUSE of such pain and misery. one man's wage cut is another man's gain after all. i can assure you that equities can rise not only in the face of economic distress but because of such distress. somebody is ALWAYS making money off another man's misfortune. ALWAYS....
Sorry, No, bears and bulls can't both be right.
Bulls such as no mas believe we are now in a sustainable economic recovery and that it's the right time to invest money in equities. Bears believe the opposite, we are now entering phase 2 of what is going to be a very long depression and most assets are extremely over valued, especially equities. They can't both be right.
Equities can indeed continue to rise in real terms in the face of adverse economic conditions. But only for a short while. Eventually, these "artificially created indexes" as you call them always end up adjusting to reality. There are no miracles.
Don't confuse the bear or bull case with short term speculative positions which have nothing to do with it.
agreed.. but what does it matter if in the interim No Mas and Leo get over, get off, get by and get out before fundamentals catch up to the indexes? it is after all only a game anyway. one either wins or loses at the game. i got out of the game several years ago as to me the only winning move was to not play the game at all. i was in the financial services industry for a few years and what i learned is that the connected and powerful always win. if they lose they simply walk away or get bailed out or call for a do-over or change the indexes or change the rules or change the compensation scheme. it is their game and it is all fake. if a company fades "they" make money all the way down and than a new company is created to be traded back and forth. fundamentals like taxes only apply to the little people. this country is being mauled and broken apart and few people give a damn. i would expect equities will do whatever "they" need or want it to do. what that is i have no idea.
I don't think investing in companies is only a game. There are real people's jobs on the line, their livelihood that's not only a game.
Nassim is that you? NNT?
Wow, ZH is now so relevant that it has Democratic propaganda operatives, err White House Communications staff, monitoring and posting the site.
"Market will take off after Friday's monster jobs report."
-Leo Kolivakis
6/1/2010
The jobs report IMO is one of the most manipulated of all of the government reports. Remember, they kept GM open for the summer break likely to goose the seasonals. July's a bad month for the Birth/Death model, but it's easy to change that as well (the first part of the B/D model is a black box).
So, the jobs number might be ok. Just might not be the truth. Just like the stress tests today.
Just a reality check for Leo. The jobs report was not monstrous that Friday, and the market did not take off. Consensus non-farm payroll was 540,000 and actual came in at 431,000. S&P sank 34 points. Take his predictions with a grain of salt. They always have a rose colored tint.
This chart is an aberation based on past datum. "Past" meaning bad and useless information that may have the effect of discouraging the average taxpayer by exposing the truth in a negative way. The datum is officially erroneous if used in disparaging conceptual formats that make pessimistic forecasts understandable and apparent to the great unwashed. Such datum should not be presented in any format other than a table of numbers minimizing anyone's ability to conceptualize the real meaning of the statistic, rendering it meaningless.
My Dear No Mas,
I have taken the precaustion of copying your post. I shall re-post it when reality outruns apprehension. Your second aircraft? Is that like one of those hi-tech radio-controlled jobs or the balsa kind? LOL
+1. Repost your copy right after those expotentially increasing holiday season retail sales stats this coming winter and Christmas season.
double dip recession my ass....there has never been a recovery - except for the plutocrats - and never will be....this is act 2 of long destructive bankster lead economic destruction....
+ 1000 for recognizing the era of double speak and word confusion.
Their strategy is "baffle them with brilliance"
I.F.O!
http://www.consumerindexes.com/
Chart 2 shows a sort of death cross as the 2010 slowdown becomes worse at this duration from its beginning than the 2008 one. Sort of fits w the ECRI WLI growth (shrinkage) trend . . .
The dow just went up over 100pts, and on a Friday no less, when the ECRI fell below 10! Am I the only one confused?
The PTB wanted a rally yesterday and today to demonstrate that all was well. GE announced a token dividend hike 10 minutes after the stress test. The MSM has buried the announcement from China on the infrastructure loans (I haven't heard one mention on TV). With the right level of skepticism (which I did not have until now), it should have been obvious this was going to happen.
Its going to take a Big Bank fail to get the credit mkts seized up again..any predictions which Country will it be from? The longer the Euro stays up it acts like a brake on any growth they may have had... its over.
but the rate of delcine is now slowing and looks like its going to form bottom soon so risk on!
Does anyone have an ECRI pro membership to access the US Long Leading Index or know of any site that has the LLI growth chart posted? The people at ERCI, like Lakshman Achuthan, constantly say that they wont make a recession forecast until there is also a downturn in the LLI, not just the WLI. I'm very curious to see what the current LLI growth chart looks like but so far have not seen one anywhere.
http://www.bullfax.com/?q=node-us-long-leading-index
yeah, that's the only one I've seen. Unfortunately that's not the one I'm looking for. I'm looking for one that shows the growth rate (% change) as the ZH chart does for the WLI.
It's certainly plausible that the markets could go all the way back up to the 2007 highs or higher. It's not like the numbers weren't rigged then either. I think where No Mas got the junks was in the delusion that the stock market recovery had anything to do with the economic recovery. Sorry bud, just about everyone in every camp thinks that assertion is completely retarded.
That is certainly why I junked him. That assertion, said with extreme arrogance, was ignorant of history.
I'm sorry, but that poster sounds like a shill with an agenda, not just a poster respectfully disagreeing. I remember too many who sounded exactly like No Mas during the "great economic years" of 2006 - 3007, attacking any of us who said that the housing bubble was going to burst, and unemployment would grow.
One need only look at a chart of the 1930s to see multiple bear market ralllies, and I doubt any one living during those times was convinced they were in a robust recovery.
It is entirely possible to manufacture a stock market rally during the worst of economic times. You just need to create enough liquidity. That, however, does not trickle down to prosperity for the middle class who do not own securities. Besides, many of the 'blowout' earnings in recent weeks have been from companies like CAT, who are benefiting from China's actual recovery, not ours.
http://www.stocktradingtogo.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/dow-1930-crash-swings.jpg
<double post>
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USLSTL?cid=93
Just like to throw this out there whenever anyone gets to thinking that the economy is headed in the right direction. For those accustomed to reading this as a green shoot since the graph is going up, please note that up=bad for this one. Please note that net loan loss ratio is 52% HIGHER than it was in 1st quarter 2009.
Interesting how they unshaded the area for the 2010 recession sometime in 2009 - even though it has NOT been officially declared over.
There are any number of statistics out there that demonstrate the recession is not over and/or the economy is not getting better. The stress tests were a complete joke. But, as you mentioned just above, this sort of data/facts just don't matter. Stocks can go up.
I'm watching the RAN Squawk headlines and watching all of the FinMins jibberjabber about the strength of the tests...
Thanks for the link, that is one eye-watering chart. My bullish friends will love it -- NOT. At least the source cannot be impeached!
Oh, but the second derivative, the second derivative!
Yuck. Stayin' in cash and metals for now. Ready to move quickly if and when it looks like inflation is makin' a run for it, though that might be quite a ways off.
DOW/SP500 daily chart is bullish for now ...
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com