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ECRI Leading Indicator Plunges Deeper Into Double Dip Territory As Stocks Turn Green

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The ECRI Leading Indicator has just moved
further into certain recession territory, hitting -10.7 for the most
recent week (the previous revised number is -10.5). The market goes
green on the news, as the Liberty 33 traders have done their job for the day and are off to the Hamptons. And what is so odd about the market reaction one may ask - bad news are as always priced in,
as the apocalypse is nothing that a little money printing can't fix,
while minimal upside surprises (soon to be revised far lower) are
sufficient to move the market higher by over 100 points intraday.
Hopefully the HFT operators unionize and go on strike soon in demanding
greater pay, and get the Greek trucker treatment as a result, because
this market is not even a joke anymore.

 

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Fri, 07/30/2010 - 10:48 | 496083 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

And...the markets go green.  Complete 180.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 10:56 | 496124 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

They've saved the planet again. CNBC is all smiles I bet.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:16 | 496205 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Stop whining MoFo's, just take the blue pill and follow the white rabbit!

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:08 | 496343 grunion
grunion's picture

Is that a very exposed young woman??

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:16 | 496362 old_turk
old_turk's picture

Yeah, but the bottom of her feet do look to need a bit of sun. :-)

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:27 | 496392 grunion
grunion's picture

Thank you. I guess these old eyes have taken to creating their own fun.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 14:02 | 496624 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

Something tells em "those" aren't feet....

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 14:08 | 496643 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

But could be toes. Camel variety.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:54 | 496476 Byte Me
Byte Me's picture

Nah, It's 'P's' thinking organ...

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:03 | 496144 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

They need to get the yellow crime scene tape out and string it around the entire Wall St district... the market's not a joke, its a crime of biblical fucking proportions. Thanks Barry - I fucking voted for you, for this fuckin shit?????????????

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:06 | 496171 Steak
Steak's picture

Not gonna hide it, i voted for Barry as well.  But what better way to drown you feelings of regret than with some badass musiq

Casual Friday playlist: http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=D995657329C4795A

Rally monkey says click!

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:59 | 496319 MrPalladium
MrPalladium's picture

I am proud to say that I did not vote for Barry. But I must confess, I did not expect Barry to be the kept lawn jockey of Wall Street.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:04 | 496331 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

I confess that I voted for Barry because the other guy was a bigger loser. Barry is performing as expected, in a dismal way. Our political establishment is not going to allow a real candidate to win. They want nothing more than pretty puppets.

Sat, 07/31/2010 - 00:43 | 497511 NoVolumeMeltup
NoVolumeMeltup's picture

Wait, your ballot only had two choices?

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:21 | 496374 DavidRicardo
DavidRicardo's picture

You should drown your feelings of regret in suicide, you dog.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:25 | 496386 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

ESAD.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 14:03 | 496630 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

Now now.....

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 10:49 | 496086 Malaespina
Malaespina's picture

My strategy is to short more on every tick to the upside, so here I am, thanks goo-fies!

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:02 | 496324 MeTarzanUjane
MeTarzanUjane's picture

Be prepared for exceedingly large losses.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:10 | 496348 grunion
grunion's picture

Why do you take that position? QE whatever?

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 10:50 | 496090 jtmo3
jtmo3's picture

I mean, for real, have I died and gone to wonderland? You have to be kidding me. This is just surreal. I don't know what's real anymore and what's make believe.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 10:57 | 496139 VK
VK's picture

As CD so eloquently put it in an earlier thread, "there is nothing left to believe except that nothing is believable." The assault on truth and reality goes on everyday. Years from now people will look back with horror and wonder, what were we thinking? 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:31 | 496233 B9K9
B9K9's picture

My father, the high level MIC intelligence dude, said it better:

"Knowledge only gains you the booby prize."

My second favorite line is:

"He who complains has already lost."

Most alive today have always lived in the hologram. Since @ least WWII, we have existed within a managed war-time economy. During the Cold War, western economies only appeared to be free-market capitalism because that contrasted most effectively with the then "communist" enemy.

Of course, we now have the WoT. This war is much better than the CW for two reasons: one, the same as as all others, is keeping people employed. The second is control of critical strategic resources. Without being backed by oil (as opposed to a gold std), FRNs would be revealed as the little pieces of green paper they really are.

In many ways I feel for CogDis, and others like him, because I can imagine the pain & confusion he still experiences as he continues the process of letting go. It's a tough game.

Still, once you've broken free, it's very clear skies. When you reach that state of clarity, there are basically only two options one need concern themselves any longer:

  • The power-elite are able to blow another bubble, in which case it's gravy train time again in the applicable asset class(es); or
  • The power-elite are not able to blow another bubble, in which case the curtain either comes down on them, or it comes down on us. (That is, they are able to pull off a complete coup.)

Personally, I don't worry too much. As I've mentioned on other posts, I'm hedged either way.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:51 | 496301 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

B9K9, your posts keep getting better.  Guess I have to put you on the long lists of ZH-ers I have to read closely.

I am still behind Cog Dis in working through the muck.  But, like you, I have hedged to the extent possible either way (any which way?).

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:06 | 496338 MeTarzanUjane
MeTarzanUjane's picture

"He who complains has already lost."

Would this entire multi-day posting on ECRI qualify as complaining? Or is Tyler cheering for the unbelievable ECRI slide? I'm confused....

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:07 | 496339 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

B9K9, you generally believe what I do. How do you hedge against the failure to blow a bubble? The elites are going to win and rest of us lose.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:22 | 496381 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Why is this considered a win/lose scenario?  Hold physical Gold and Silver coins and you'll be fine and better off than many "elites".  

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:26 | 496388 B9K9
B9K9's picture

If the power-elite fail to blow another bubble (that is, maintain a managed economy), then the logical outcome is not that they win. It's a dicey proposition, which is why they're full blown committed to maintaining the status quo.

Since the economy has never been in such a perilous condition while the war-time paradigm has been in effect (ie since WWII), that's the reason it has become so much easier to clearly see the blatant lies & deception. (Which, I imagine, is why guys like CogDis are now being picking up on the truth.)

So, the odds (at least at this point in time) are 50/50 that either the People take back control of "their" country, or the power-elite throw off the mask and come out & clearly admit that we indeed do live in a fascist dictatorship and dare anyone to do something about it.

My hedge is simple: if "we" win, then you'll want to be a state/region with limited former welfare recipients. If they win, then you'll want to morph into what Soros was able to accomplish in Hungary during WWII. That is, you become a snitch & processing operative helping get rid of "complainers".

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:59 | 496480 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

You have an interesting and self centered point of view B9K9. You seem to think you are the sole person in possession of the "truth" and that many just don't get it. Why you keep mentioning me as one of those who don't get it (or more precisely one of the newly arrived) I have no idea.

I've been an extremely active local activist with no political affiliation for well over 7 years and I've been quite aware of the corruption and insanity for over 20 years. I didn't just starting picking up on "the" truth.

Besides, "truth" is extremely subjective. After all, many people think they know the truth. Everyone can't be right. Once anyone thinks they've arrived at the truth and can stop searching, they are up a blind alley and they don't know it.

Sun, 08/01/2010 - 17:40 | 498906 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

I realize this thread is dead, but I disagree with the premise that if they fail to blow another bubble, they will lose.  Politics is the presentation of choices whereby the presenter wins any way you choose.  In this situation, we storm the fed and bring it to the ground, and then what?  Regardless of the outcome, the size of the federal government is going to decrease with credit contraction.  If we decide to get froggy with them, then all we're going to do is take down their avenues of destruction (limited liability entities) and a couple patsy principal actors.  If we do not, then the wealth gap proves to be the foreshadowing of our new robber barons, as many of the items previously collectively bargained for get thrown to the wind as hindrances to production.  The best assets of the GSEs, federal government, and FED will all be auctioned off to the club.

It is my premise that the war is already largely over...  they already won as proven by the wealth gap.  It doesn't matter what happens, they're  already hedged.  The present charade is simply an effort to refill the avenues of destruction with taxpayer dollars so the previous dollars can be siphoned to the club.  Reflation is not going to work.  We know it and they know it.  They're just preparing for the fire sale (with our money).  If it ends today, they've gotten a huge head start in the new world...  and that's all they could be insured to have even with the best of plan executed to perfection.

We already lost the war.  The next chance will be after the robber barons become too onerous and we get fed up and begin collective bargaining.  We have been stripped of the means to claw back the wealth gap...  it can't happen with our present infrastructure.  It will collapse and we'll start another soon enough.  And then we'll get another FED crammed down our throats.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:22 | 496361 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I'm curious to know where you think I "am" in my thinking. Please don't mistake my philosophical or even emotional view with my financial view, my financial trading, my state of readiness nor my ability to change direction as the water flow changes.

How I see and react to the world (or reality) and how I would like the world to be are two entirely different things. How I wish "we" would react to the world and how we do react are also two different things. I suspect you have not read my articles from stem to stern because I constantly talk about seeing reality as it is, not the illusion as presented and of not falling for the illusion.

I talk about making changes, that we have the ability to make the changes we wish to see. I'm under no illusion that the majority will. I have great hope that individuals can and will make internal changes. I have little hope the collective will do so as well.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:26 | 496387 MeTarzanUjane
MeTarzanUjane's picture

Ah I get it. Double talk, right? Or the juvenile term; two faced. You have your trading face and your philosophical face. Nice.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:40 | 496435 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Sorry but your dog don't hunt.

I never discuss my trades or positions. Never. Take a walk back in time and look at all my comments. You will not find any discussion about trades. I always talk about the subterfuge and market manipulation and I always talk about psychology and philosophy, either market or individual. But I don't talk about trades or positions.

Go bark up some other tree.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:27 | 496393 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right CogDiss, this guy says he deals with the implosion of the USA by hedging his bets? What are those bets paid off in, assuming he wins the bet...a greenback that will also be toilet paper status!

I wish people WOULD actually react to being enslaved in a manner other than placing a better bet on the rigged roulette wheel.

Come to think of it, WTF was he even talking about?

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:51 | 496467 B9K9
B9K9's picture

"... react to being enslaved"? LOL. So now we have someone actually advocating an emotional response? What world am I living on? Perhaps I can coin another B9K9 truism on the fly:

"Those who emotionally react are already dead."

IOW, you're a dead man bro, you just don't know it. The absolute key to survival is to clearly assess the situation at hand. Remember, the goal is to not only live, but to gain as much pussy, power & prestige as possible.

Given the facts on the ground, how are you going to accomplish these tasks? Or, are you going to quit by claiming these are a false set of rules?

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 13:41 | 496582 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

RIGHT! Just as long as youre 'properly hedged' in the rigged casino and paid in worthless fiat currency, then YOU'RE ok! Got it all figured out do ya! Massively hillarious.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 14:26 | 496681 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Remember, the goal is to not only live, but to gain as much pussy, power & prestige as possible.

Well no. A bit of Financial security and my Constitutional rights back is all I want. I'll do the rest. Power and Pussy, now that's begging for trouble. Be humble, and pray to God to help save our country.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 21:14 | 497347 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

A simple prayer really:  "Lord, deliver us from Evil!"

Sun, 08/01/2010 - 02:23 | 498395 RichardP
RichardP's picture

If He wanted to, He would have done it already.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:34 | 496418 grunion
grunion's picture

I missed your post listing actions we can take that would help the process of returning governance to the people. Would it be too much trouble for you to list them again?

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 13:15 | 496449 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Try meowing up another tree. Or maybe try reading some of my older articles and posts.

I have never "listed actions we can take that would help the process of returning governance to the people" because I have consistently said that until people get honest and centered within themselves, this won't happen.

What I've talked about is how to see your own dishonesty and once this becomes a part of your life, how to become more centered.

Meow!

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 21:19 | 497349 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

The Eight National Crimes:

    * I don’t think.
    * I don’t know.
    * I don’t care.
    * I am too busy.
    * I leave well enough alone.
    * I have no time to read and find out.
    * I am not interested.
    * I don't vote.

A lot of people I've talked to are well aware that there be something rotten in the state of Denmark, but cannot conceive of what they can do about it except throw up their hands in surrender.  I predict a return to tribalism, small groups of people that know each other and will band together to help each other survive the cataclysm.

Sat, 07/31/2010 - 04:54 | 497568 anvILL
anvILL's picture

The greatest crime of them all is the reproduction of those who commit those 8 crimes.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:36 | 496424 B9K9
B9K9's picture

Cool. So now do you get my pop's meaning that you have "won the booby prize"? It really does pose an existential question, because all you're left with is "that's it"?

That's why one almost feels sorry for Blankfein, Obama, and all the rest. To outsiders, they may appear to have power & control, but once you're on inside you completely become inured to the "high".

It doesn't matter what it is, all human experiences quickly depreciate. It can be entail becoming bored with a beautiful model, tiring of sitting on the beach in front of your mansion all day, or wearying of shooting up another dose of high-grade heroin.

We are evolutionary products of change - it's the only real thing that rocks our world.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:49 | 496462 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

May I respectfully request that you spend some time reading my articles, particularly my 5 part series on "Welcome to the Insane Asylum".

Below is the link to chapter 5 of the 5 part series, which contains the links to the first 4 chapters as well.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/welcome-insane-asylum-%E2%80%93-seeking-moral-courage-chapter-5

Below is a free .PDF file of the entire series.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/33507389/Welcome-to-the-Insane-Asylum-Our-Collective-Psychosis

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 13:07 | 496494 B9K9
B9K9's picture

CogDis, I promise to no longer use you as a proxy for those struggling with breaking through to clarity. Still, I must object to your opening statement in paper #5:

It’s generally understood by all that something that’s taken by force has much less value compared to the same thing given freely and willingly.

This is demonstrably false. All living things are evolutionary beings. Resource constraints are the primary limiters. Various strategies have evolved in competition for scarce resources.

The greatest optimal strategy for resource acquisition is to take that which already exists - it has the highest ROI on expended energy (aka energy cost of energy). If it doesn't exist freely (eg the commons), then one must take from others (via war/crime), otherwise one is reduced to producing their own resources. (Which has a very high energy cost.)

Superior power, strength, guile, political organization, etc are all tools that have evolved to help grant competitive advantages to those most effective at taking resources from others.

So, to the contrary, I would posit that:

It’s generally understood by all that something that’s taken by force/guile has much greater value compared to the same thing given freely and willingly.

However, there is an even easier proof: the US is a fascist empire which exploits other countries/regions in order gain a higher standard of living for its "citizens".


Fri, 07/30/2010 - 14:55 | 496530 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Well at least you read the first sentence of the fifth chapter. Only 42,493 words and 5 chapters to go. But you might want to start at the beginning, where over the next 112 pages I lay out my case.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:43 | 497051 MeTarzanUjane
MeTarzanUjane's picture

Is it safe to call these papers your manifesto? If so then I might skim them. Just to play a game of spot the numerous "eccentricities".

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 17:12 | 497115 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

No it would not be safe. Avoid them at all cost.

BTW, where have you been the past 20 or 25 weeks? No comments for a long while, then you return and raise hell. What has compelled you to suddenly return for the past 4 or 5 days?

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 14:30 | 496686 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

"Fear is mind killer"

Dune, bitches!

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 14:45 | 496706 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

LOL

I recently re-read the novel and the parallels to today's (worldwide) fascism are remarkable. I remember when I first read it decades ago thinking not only that the science was fiction but also the political situation was fictional as well. Not any more. Herbert made many social/political comments in Dune that ring today. He was a visionary.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 23:23 | 497470 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Great book. I was spellbound by it as a teenager.  I named my youngest boy Duncan, after Duncan Idaho (no sherlock). 

Sat, 07/31/2010 - 00:56 | 497514 NoVolumeMeltup
NoVolumeMeltup's picture

CD,

I never thought I'd be posting here (although I've read for a while), but I had to tell you that your effort was exceedingly fine. I read it in full and plan to again shortly.

You're definitely on to something.

I've seen some profound stuff here from merehuman as well.

Regards.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:48 | 496458 Attitude_Check
Attitude_Check's picture

Since I'm not one of the "insiders" the only rational choice is to stay out of this manipulated market and wait for the epic fail coming.  Pick what you want to invest in.  My choices are:

 

1.  Pay down debt

2.  Precious metals

3.  Continue to educate self in economically valuable ways

4.  Physical FRNs (they may become in VERY short supply when credit/debt implodes)  This is higher risk due to QE however.

5.  For those not so inclined - learn to build/make/repair stuff

6.  If you have done all these and HAVE to invest, then go with broad international funds to spread the risk arround.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:52 | 496470 realtick
realtick's picture

Then you're on the wrong site: this site is called Zero Hedge.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:21 | 496235 longjohnshorts
longjohnshorts's picture

Years from now, people might be too busy focusing on day-to-day survival than to look back at past shenanigans.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:29 | 496260 B9K9
B9K9's picture

Your comment suggests option #2. What if option #1 occurs?

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:48 | 496297 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

Then it's I-Pads and 60 inch 3 D TVs for everyone.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 14:53 | 496725 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

At this point in the long cycle, the only bubble left to blow is War -- real war, not CW or WoT war.

 

Once that achieves liftoff, it's time to say goodbye to a significant majority of the planet's population.

 

What arises after that? Pick your scenario.

 

.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 21:23 | 497353 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Ever see "Teenage Caveman", starring Robert Vaughn?

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:20 | 496232 emsolý
emsolý's picture

go see 'inception'

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 10:50 | 496091 French Frog
French Frog's picture

as someone said earlier, ECRI is only being looked at when it is positive; the shorts are getting banged once again

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 13:44 | 496592 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

OOPS now the dip-master permabull 'tards are getting banged....go figure ;P

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 10:51 | 496093 4shzl
4shzl's picture

this market is not even a joke anymore.

If you're not laughing, you shouldn't be watching.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 10:51 | 496094 Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

Clowns to the left of me
Jokers to the right
Here I am, stuck in the middle...

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 10:52 | 496097 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Problem:

- Worsening ECRI

- World record low housing starts

- Eurobor blowing out to new highs

- Unemployment getting worse

- Bonds ramping

 

Solution:

- Buy Stocks

 

LOL.....

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 10:52 | 496098 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

LOL, there you go again..."PLUNGES"! What I want to know is who bought the dip this morning and made money!

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 10:56 | 496131 Mikebrah
Mikebrah's picture

I'm very bearish US equities but I have to agree with Leo that a drop from 10.5 to 10.7 hardly qualifies as a "plunge."  The rate of descent on the ECRI has slowed dramatically over the past several weeks.

 

Let's not start falling prey to the same Newspeak tactics we're crying foul against.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:03 | 496156 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@Mikebrah

Serious question.  If the ECRI LI drop from positive territory to -10.7 in a matter of weeks was met with an 80-100 SPX ramp job with little or no pullback, wouldn't you be the least bit skeptical of that move?

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:12 | 496193 Mikebrah
Mikebrah's picture

Oh, I'm completely skeptical.  There is no part of me that thinks we are witnessing free markets in action.

 

My comment was in regards to the most recent reading of -10.7 vs -10.5 and the .2 drop qualifying as a "plunge."  The ECRI has plunged over the past few months, agreed.  But this was the smallest weekly drop of that time frame and in my mind does not qualify as a "plunge."

 

Attempting to qualify it as a plunge is the same type of vernacular shenanigans that the Fed, USG practices.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:26 | 496249 longjohnshorts
longjohnshorts's picture

I agree. While most of us on this site are fully skeptical of stats and actions by TPTB. But, we need to calibrate the language to the actual activity, or risk losing perspective and credibility.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 13:20 | 496538 Cursive
Cursive's picture

OK, but my reading of it is that the ECRI "continues to plunge" from positive to -10.7 eithout any correlated move in the SPX since the ECRI LI was positive.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 19:25 | 497253 Strider52
Strider52's picture

Definition of Good News today is: "Hey, it could've been worse."

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:03 | 496157 egdeh orez
egdeh orez's picture

Hey Leo,

I covered my shorts this morning and made money.  Does that count?  Did you buy the dips this morning?

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:05 | 496167 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Does the sun rise in the east?

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:54 | 496306 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Does a bear

Never mind, let's not go there!

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:54 | 496307 As Seen On TV
As Seen On TV's picture

Do you sell?  Ever? 

Did you buy the WED afternoon dip?  And the THU midday dip?

--More curious than snarky actually. 

What is a Leo dip?  Can I set alerts?  (Ok, that felt like snark)

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:30 | 496401 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well, that part is never disclosed by Leo and the permabull 'tards....they never tell you WHEN the sold, they only ever post that they 'bought the dip' after they see another PPT rescue effort has pumped worthless stocks. 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:11 | 496189 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Dont forget the rate of the rate has also slowed down. In fact, it is odd CNBC has not pointed that out yet.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:26 | 496250 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

What are we talking about, everybody agreed on this site than numbers are fudged, we don't have correction coefficient for that, do we? We admit all the time that numbers are shit and then still discuss them, isn't it funny? 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:56 | 496315 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Eally raises an excellent point.

Here at ZH, maybe there is a math PhD who can come up with a Correction Coefficient (or two or three) so we can look at better numbers.

"Correction Coefficient", thanks for the most excellent term!

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:23 | 496382 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

It's called www.shadowstats.com

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:45 | 496452 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Thx Cog Dis, I keep forgetting about those guys.  I hope they have some of their numbers for free.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 13:43 | 496587 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

Free or not, doesn't matter. We need some real feelings of our membes, CD likes Shadow numbers, that's ok with me.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:56 | 496313 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Speaking of CNBC, I accidently stumbled into Cramer's rant on Mad Money for a few minutes last night. He had a big January 2011 calendar on the wall. He claims that as of today's open , the market is now ignoring 2010 and ready to price in the supercharged earnings picture of 2011 Q1. The future is therefore certain and the past is " priced in ".

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:23 | 496383 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

That's funny.

I see his big ugly mug on ads here though.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:50 | 496465 greased up deaf guy
greased up deaf guy's picture

ahhh... the good ol' second derivative.  who knew calculus would go mainstream?

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 17:13 | 497120 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Indeed. Forget the math connotations, derivative went popular when the media (or their puppy dog investor, Buffet) started focusing on these 'weapons of mass destruction'

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 10:57 | 496133 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Check out that yeild curve...our should I say line at this point. 

So did you buy those dips in April, May, June, July?  If so you only have negative alpha for those buys.  Keep batting them out of the park.  I am not buying nor shorting just yet. 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 10:57 | 496136 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

For once I'm sure everyone would like you to say for once that you actually lost money buying a dip. But of course, you have access to the discount window so obviously you either are part of JP Morgan or full of...

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 10:58 | 496141 PatsPal
PatsPal's picture

I can't aruge with results. I'm amazed at how the market ignores the reality of at best a stagnant economy. My feable mind can only come to one conclusion and that is collusion and corruption. Nothing else makes sense. Don't give me the "Things are better then you thing" crap. I live in this world and it stinks and getting worst no matter what the propaganda is. I have to think that at some point in time it all goes Boom!

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:43 | 496444 grunion
grunion's picture

I keep hoping one of the geniuses that frequent this site will see something that triggers an inspired method for completely duping the manipulators. That's my little pipedream...

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:00 | 496142 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@Leo

What I want to know is who bought the dip this morning and made money!

The same bulltard dumbasses that bought at SPX 1575 in Oct. 2007.  That logic works until is doesn't.  And then there are consequences.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:00 | 496147 demsco
demsco's picture

Yeah, you may have bought, but whether or not you made money is up to you to report. It is funny, no one EVER loses money on the internet... BTW, buying on such shitty news was stupid, just an observation when every indication is showing the market is way over bought even if you are a bull. Eventually your permabull attitude will blow up on you because even a blind man can see the fundamentals suck balls.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:00 | 496148 Chemba
Chemba's picture

I was short at the open, covered when the hourly vix bull-signaled, and went long.  I sold when spy went flat.

If you get too dogmatic about the shitty US economy and its structural flaws you miss the trades.  Remember, one could tell that General Motors was essentially bankrupt ten years ago, but it took that long to come to pass.  How much longer might it take the USA vs GM?  I'll spot you that it was possible to tell USA was bankrupt as early as 2003.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:02 | 496152 Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

@Leo K

Did you miss the internals of the GDP release? Absent some help from the G-men, the U.S. economy is flat-line. Some recovery, eh?

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:02 | 496155 American Dreams
American Dreams's picture

Take your profits Leo and crack open a PBR for a little beer 30 action cause this is nothing more than a trap.  Blood on the board by end of the day and through next week.

 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:18 | 496217 n2dark
n2dark's picture

el greco before getting too excited take a look at the volume ... these are running on fumes

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:22 | 496239 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well Leo, Im sure you and all the others with rear view mirrors attached to your computer monitors did! Youre really just a joke at this point Leo, you should be posting on Yahoo! stock MB's with the other fuktards.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:26 | 496252 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Listen shorty, cover while you still have a pot to piss in. :)

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:33 | 496269 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Go piss up a rope Leo!

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:03 | 496330 besodemuerte
besodemuerte's picture

Why such anger?  You must be getting ravaged by the markets lately?

I'm 180 degrees against Leo's bullishness, but that doesn't warrant me cussing out anyone opposite my stance.  I recognize and welcome Leo's posts, not so much those from yourself.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:46 | 496454 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

beso is right.  Let's keep it reasonably civil in here.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 14:09 | 496650 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Uh, besodemuerte, blow it out yer ass!

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:50 | 496464 Econolingus
Econolingus's picture

Don't hate Leo cuz he's making money.  I'm not, and I don't.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 15:00 | 496742 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

He's like a patho gambler in Vegas - always willing to report wins, but never reports a loss.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:52 | 497080 MeTarzanUjane
MeTarzanUjane's picture

Wait a minute. Didn't you just describe Reggie Milton over at the bust boom blog? I'm confused.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 21:43 | 497369 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Making money, or just Fiat currency?

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:41 | 496290 M4570D0N
M4570D0N's picture

Yeah, this week is a noticable break from the previous trend. The ECRI WLI actually increased from 120.6 to 121.1 while the growth rate ticked down slightly to -10.7% from -10.5%. I expect the downward trend to continue but this most recent release is not a plunge. Though, I suppose you could agrue that it is a continuation of the plunge that started 2009.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:56 | 496478 realtick
realtick's picture

Daytraders who understand that gaps ususally get filled.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 13:26 | 496555 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

We will see how your "buy at the dip" worked out at EOD.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 13:46 | 496601 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

HEY Leo gee have you now SOLD the dip you bought this morning? Or is the clear picture from your rear view mirror mounted on your monitor closer than they appear? Or do you need to wait until market close to announce your trades for the day?

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 10:54 | 496100 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

When I dip, you dip, we dip...

 

So the second derviative is showing deceleration, like the Baltic Dry did before it ran up this week.  Is it an inflection forming or dead cat bounce?

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 10:54 | 496101 Instant Karma
Instant Karma's picture

It doesn't matter, I have concluded the country, the USA, is lost. We have become in the past 100 years or so, but more so in the past generation (since JFK), a non-Constitutional Bureauratocracy. A country of thousands of laws selectively enforced by bureaucrats and politicians. A country without the most basic freedom of all: the freedom to be left alone to live ones life without an intrusive and oppressive government. Without that basic freedom, the freedom to live one's life outside the suffocating scope of laws and regulations and taxes, there is no freedom, and we are all servants to an a-Constitutional Bureauratocry.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 10:59 | 496145 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Yes, a nasty by-product of fiat currency.  All is not lost. When the economy folds in on itself, all the bureaucrats will be history and that will be the time to restore the Constitution and our freedom.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:01 | 496323 Locodonkey
Locodonkey's picture

Just wait until we lose the 1st amendment. Thats when its really over. 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:55 | 497088 MeTarzanUjane
MeTarzanUjane's picture

It ain't over till it's over bitchez!

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:05 | 496333 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Wow, a Constitutional Bureautocracy.  Second great term I learned just on the one thread.

So what to do:

a)  suck it up and live under a soft dictatorship?

b)  wait for it to crash and/or burn?

c)  go to Peru (or wherever)?

d)  ?

I had long thought that it was all going to come down long before now.  Them TPTB really have a lot of clout to have let this rotten rigged game go on for so long.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:31 | 496406 Joeman34
Joeman34's picture

We need term limits on all political positions immediately!!!  IMO, a significant driver of the present predicament in which we find our country is a result of career risk with respect to politicians.  Every decision they make is framed from the 'will this help me get re-elected' perspective.  Politics should not be a career choice!

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 10:53 | 496104 deepsouthdoug
deepsouthdoug's picture

But...but...but consumers are confident!

 

RISK ON!!!!    ;-)

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 10:56 | 496135 Racer
Racer's picture

Confident not to spend as in the earlier releases news today but that is all forgotten and ignored by HFT short gunners

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 10:53 | 496105 huggy_in_london
huggy_in_london's picture

This is going to end ugly when it finally breaks down properly.  Consumers have stopped spending (in line with the revs numbers being poor in the latest earnings season), companies are investing for who-knows-what reason .... when they realise they are stuck with more machinery, computers etc but can't shift any product/services then there'll be the next wave of layoffs to preserve the bottom line.  

 

It's all about hanging on till the real activity collapses, then it won't matter how many spoos these monkeys think they can buy to hold it up... it'll crumble under its own weight as every man and his dog try to flee the market.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 10:53 | 496107 10044
10044's picture

"cardinal climax" baby, GOLD BITHCEZ

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 10:53 | 496111 Robslob
Robslob's picture

The prop job stops when ALL the Senators can cash out with low capital gains tax in August...initiate short positions and then cry wolf about the manipulation of information and how to fix it...

Patience bitches...

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:38 | 496283 longjohnshorts
longjohnshorts's picture

Speaking of senators, I just want to call everyone's attention to the SOB from Massachusetts:

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/election/2010/07/28/kerry-to-pay-yacht-tax-...

 

 

 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:51 | 496468 grunion
grunion's picture

It's not just a job, it's a career!!!

 

...run today...

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 14:40 | 496699 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Hey, he's MY senator, not that I had anything to do about it.  Here's a real laugh from Howie Carr:

Sen. John “Liveshot” Kerry was so angry last night he threw somebody else’s tax bill over the White House wall.

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/columnists/view.bg?articleid=1270703

- Ned

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 10:55 | 496112 Hondo
Hondo's picture

I agree it's no joke it's pure corruption...but then everything on Wall Street in Washington has been corrupted for years..we are now passing into territory where the credibility of the entire system is worthless.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:53 | 496304 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Thats the reality, the retail investor is gone, the 'consumer' is gone...now the 'anal-ysts' can electron microscope the data all they like but the reality is the Golden Goose is dead.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 10:56 | 496113 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Got....to....get....to....end....of...the...month...before...letting.....go.

Phew, Thank God It's (end-of-month) Friday

And don't forget folks, it's also Bank Failure Friday as well.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:08 | 496341 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Ahh, tonight, Bank Failure Friday.

I guess I will ride it out with a big shot of rye whiskey.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 10:55 | 496114 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Brutally ranger-bound markets. Flogged in channel.

 

Beyond bizarre.

 

ORI

 

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:00 | 496150 FASB 666
FASB 666's picture

Was that haiku ?

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 14:25 | 496680 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

Haiku are so elegent.  They get right to the meat of a thing.  Limmericks are also fun. 

 

A bald-headed trader from Wall Street
Was feeling decidedly downbeat.
A phone call to Tim
Assured him he'd win
another big serving of tarp-treat.

I think you get extra credit for most creative use of Nantucket too. 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 22:41 | 497428 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Not intentional FAS, but thanks for the thought.

I'll try Haikuing from now on.

Cut to the gleaming bone with words.

 

Awesome.

 

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 10:55 | 496115 PierreLegrand
PierreLegrand's picture

hmmm...everything is ok. All these for lease signs mean nothing, all those empty buildings with boards over the windows nothing to see here move along, the homeless multiplying on street corners...nothing to see here move along, everything is A-Ok. 200 applicants for a position I offer that used to draw flies, nothing to see here move along, folks coming in telling me they don't care what I pay or what the job is they simply need a job...n

Nothing to see here move along. It is all good, nothing to see here move along.

 

Btw Gold and Ammo Bitches...

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:10 | 496346 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Can't have enough gold & ammo.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 10:56 | 496134 tommus
tommus's picture

any bad news increases the chance of a new QE program,

so the gamblers pile back in and push up the prices. 

the market is now inversely correlated with the strength of the economy.

it actually makes perfect sense when you consider the relationship of the financial elite to the useless eaters.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:21 | 496234 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

"useless eaters" is my new favorite expression of disdain.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:55 | 496310 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The 'elite' are the real useless eaters, parasites who provide nothing, only live on the host of humanity.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 14:06 | 496635 tommus
tommus's picture

i'll bet most of us here have a lot more in common with the "elite" than with the 6 billion or so useless eaters:

for one, we have some spare change to play around with...

...and we are trying to use that spare change to profit from the supposed collapse of the system while we enjoy it's benefits.

you can be a useless eater to one person, and a parasitic elite to another.

just sayin'

 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:49 | 496459 Locodonkey
Locodonkey's picture

Clever

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 10:57 | 496137 nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

The stock market and the media that covers it are seriously demented.

At some point they will notice that nobody believes it anymore, that the hiperinflation experiment has failed and they should stop pretending it.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:00 | 496149 Kina
Kina's picture

Markets go vertical 1% in no time at all.

 

The whole thing is corrupt, all markets, PM and data, all fabricated and manipulated.

We live in a world of pervasive dishonesty where distrusting Government is an imperitive, distrusting banks and financial system also and ignoring regulators as corrupt, neccessary.

We know most politicians are paid for and will never put people before their owners.

Everything is corruption. The Whitehouse pointless.

Where do I put my money? Markets? Who knows when that will be allowed to crash. PMs? Yes as insurance but it wont produce a return in the meantime. Cash? How safe are banks, and what rates?

I agree the only option is get a property that can produce most of your food needs, keep some cash and PMs and forget about the world.

If these mongrels ever get their due punishment, public garrotting, I want to be in the crowd cheering.

 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 12:33 | 496413 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

The market is manipulated. Larger ES buy block was activated at 9:41 (~5 minutes before the official release). Who ever was manipulating (kept buying ES until S&P hit 1100) knew the PMI numbers ahead of the release (most likely the manipulator was the government -- US Treasury or Fed proxies)

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:00 | 496151 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

it never happens as fast as you think it will and after the black swan shit hits you in the eye, you can't imagine how you didn't see it in time to move. 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:06 | 496172 PatsPal
PatsPal's picture

I hear that but how much patience does one need? I have been hearing this matra for 2 freaking years! For all I know this could continue for another 10 years and I will die waiting for the truth. I'm more about the truth being revealed and feeling justified then I am about making $$.  I have enough $$. I feel like I'm in a straight jacket everyday. When will the truth be revealed if ever?

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 11:20 | 496231 Orly
Orly's picture

My guess is sooner than you think.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 14:35 | 496693 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

Try a little civil disobedience.  It will make you feel better.  Nothing big, maybe just take a left turn when the arrow is red and nothing is coming. 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!