ECRI Plunges At 9.8% Rate, Double Dip Recession Virtually Assured

Tyler Durden's picture

The ECRI Leading Economic Index just dropped to a fresh reading of 120.6 (flat from a previously revised 121.5 as the Columbia profs scramble to create at least a neutral inflection point): this is now a -9.8 drop, and based on empirical evidence presented previously by David Rosenberg, and also confirming all the macro economic data seen in the past two months, virtually assures that the US economy is now fully in a double dip recession scenario."It is one thing to slip to or fractionally below the zero line, but a -3.5% reading has only sent off two head-fakes in the past, while accurately foreshadowing seven recessions — with a three month lag. Keep your eye on the -10 threshold, for at that level, the economy has gone into recession … only 100% of the time (42 years of data)." We are there.

Complete collapse in the long-term chart:




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Arseclown's picture

Dear Congress/stimulus:  Thanks for nothing.

TheGoodDoctor's picture

They can't hear you. They are working on QE2. /sarcasm off

AR15AU's picture

Why would you need a sarcasm tag for that statement???  O_o

Eternal Student's picture

Hey, c'mon. You DID get something. You, me and everyone else. We're getting stuck with the bill.

sbenard's picture

You are sooo ungrateful (tongue-in-cheek). $2.5 trillion in debt is not NOTHING! Don't you feel rich? Pete Stark says that the deeper the debt, the richer we are!

bonddude's picture

Message to Congress and Prez.

I'm not into anal...


especially as a "bottom" !!

Instant Karma's picture

It's time to get serious about printing money.

1. For those of us few who pay taxes: slash them. Federal income taxes, followed by Social Security taxes, are by far and away my largest yearly expenses.

2. For most people who don't pay taxes: send 'em $1000 check.


RobD's picture

Heh, a dem president and congress cut taxes? In your dreams. Has not happened since Kennedy. Jugears will never sign the bill so there would have to be an override and that is not happening until after November if then. Stick a fork in us we are done.

RobD's picture

Umm, looking at the votes for that tax bill it looks like the house and the senate were in the hands of the repubs at the time and old slik did the right thing. Do you honistly think Nancy and Harry would pass any real tax cuts like those proposed above.

tj3's picture

Ya, I'm so sorry. Whenever, I see the Obama manics I tend to focus on the hatred of the Presidency. You are absolutely right...the Republican Congress...and of course let us ignore all the Democrats that voted for the bill, because, you know, it's all about the Republicans. Democrats never, ever, ever cut taxes.


It's a shame you never paid a 75% tax rate you rich hoo hoo 35%...cry me a fuckin river.

tj3's picture

Again and again I apologize to myself for being sucked down instead of up.


Look, all I'm sayin' is that politicians are either bought by the Corp/Bank/Media complex or their not. Most are, so this Repug/Dims thing (and tea party too for matter(eff the racists))is a false flag and I refuse to play.



AR15AU's picture

Granted, most politicians are idiots.  But at least the (R) platform says that they are supposed to shrink government, not grow it.  Yeah, when the (R)s stray from their own platform, they are betraying their voters.  But the (D)s platform is all about growing government, so, they are just as bad as the spineless (R)s.  When (R)s stick to their platform like Peter Schiff or Ron Paul, they are damn good.  Just like when (D)s reject their platform, its a good sign.

papaswamp's picture

Just an RCH above the magic ramp job for the ECRI?

PlausibleDenial's picture

RCH,  beautiful, I use that all the time, but have to have several explantions for those many that ask "Uh, what's that mean?"  Carry on papa...

midtowng's picture

WTF are they going to do? We've already shot our wad on fiscal stimulus. They can't go back to that well. That only leaves monetary stimulus...or severe deflation.

StychoKiller's picture

Yeah, and Obamatron "Promised" no more bank bailouts -- until there is.

ZeroPower's picture

There's a 3 month lag to the indicator.

Great, lets keep the SPX up in 1100 range till October and let the fun of Oct 2008 start all over again!

Tense INDIAN's picture

October???....what the Fuck ...u dissapoint me.....cant we have the fun right now...i mean the markets are falling ...and i got my sweet Shorts in Place...

geminiRX's picture

Watch em do a ramp job this afternoon and the dow closes the day at +1 point in the green on no volume. This is predictable isn't it?

Tense INDIAN's picture

if that happens again today...that will really Piss me OFF......

geminiRX's picture

From yesterday's Charles Nenner post:

"As to trading, he believes that as long as the S&P does not close below 1,085, the market will continue bouncing, and if 1,085 is taken out - it should be all over." 


If true, they won't let this happen...

spekulatn's picture

Tense INDIAN becomes Pissed Off INDIAN.

I like it.

Ms. Erable's picture

We need a new index, the RTI (Ramp Time Indicator), so we can bid the time the ramp-job starts each day. 3:30:04? 3:47:18? Bids may be placed from NYC, Jersey City, Vegas, Laughlin, and any Native American reservation casino.

Chumly's picture

You're on to something...this Ponzi Scheme could use another derivative to screw the retailers, you know, a binary hit or miss-type option; Email your idea to the PPT - they need a good scam to scalp another few billion out of willing suckers, considering they WILL be the market maker it will be a win-win for the casino.  They could use another few billion for their fractional reserve scam to ramp up another few hundred trillion in dervatives.

King_of_simpletons's picture

Wait till the taxes skyrocket in 2011. Must be fun fun fun.....

Ragnarok's picture

Send in the clowns....

Village Idiot's picture

"Send in the clowns"....

What channel are you on? That's the only show playing over here!

virgilcaine's picture

& Lachsmtan says...'hold on a minute, its only one measure'.  Appears he only likes it heading UP.  You created the monster must live with it..

NOTW777's picture

recovery summer

VK's picture

They'll revise this down next week as well!

slaiman7's picture

Any news about BDI today?

PicassoInActions's picture

CNBC headings

King_of_simpletons's picture

CNBC should stop cheerleading earnings season. It is a given that earnings suck but they all beat expectations/estimates because the market is in cruise control and the only entity driving it is the Fed in cahoots with the too big to fail banks.

Spaceman Spiff's picture

"they all beat expectations/estimates because the market is in cruise control"

Well, that and these companies revise expectations down low enough to beat them.

Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

I am sure expectations were calculated with pixie dust, leprechauns and farting unicorns included as variables.

tj3's picture

Unicorns farts are one of the most efficient sources of clean energy. The first political party to recognizes this will profit.

currency conflagration's picture


" Funny, how were the expectations calculated. "


HFT computer systems running on Iphones of course!

Muir's picture

As someone else said this morning: "Houston we have a problem."

Tense INDIAN's picture

i dont know about you but i have never seen this data being mentioned in bloomberg....

Charley's picture

Now the fun begins...

falcomadol's picture

Keep your job, and your personal earnings level, and this can improve your situation, as long as you don't own a house...


It's not much of a silver lining, and there are a lot of ifs there.

Village Idiot's picture

"Keep your job, and your personal earnings level"


I have mentioned something along these linesth before - the game for me at this point is to keep from getting kicked down a financial notch. So far so good.  Almost two years of playing "wack-a-mole." I hate this game.

snowball777's picture

Damn straight...houses for car prices, cars for moped prices, and more zombies than you can shake a stick at (no, really, keep shaking that stick).