Egan-Jones Downgrades US From AAA To AA+

Tyler Durden's picture

While others huff and puff, and threaten to do what had to be done ages ago, the one truly independent and capable NRSRO, Egan-Jones, downgraded the US from AAA to AA+ over the weekend.

From the release:

Real GDP increased at an annualized rate of 4.0% in Q1 2011, following an increase of 3.5% rise in the prior quarter. Personal consumption expenditures, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment contributed positively to growth during the quarter. Meanwhile, imports rose sharply. In the March 2011 quarter, trade in goods and services resulted in a deficit of $562B, many because of the high price of petroleum. However, the major factor driving credit quality is the relatively high level of debt and the difficulty in significantly cutting spending. We are taking a negative action not based on the delay in raising the debt ceiling but rather our concern about the high level of debt to GDP in excess of 100% compared to Canada's 35%. Nonetheless, since the US's debt is denominated in dollars, a hard default is unlikely.

And while there is much more in the full report (mind you nothing of it is surprising to anyone), the post script is spot on:

Nota Bene

History has proven that defaults on domestic public debt do occur. In fact, seventy out of three hundred twenty defaults since 1800 have been on domestic public debt (1). Egan-Jones does not view a country's ability to print its own currency as a guarantee against default. Additionally, Egan-Jones generally views cases of excessive currency devaluation as a de facto  default.

Luckily for the status quo there are no trillions in structure finance and money market instruments tied to the AAA rating of the US. If this downgrade had been performed by Moodys or S&P, or even France-owned Fitch, today would have been a bitter appetizer of what is ultimately coming.

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lolmao500's picture

Moody, SP and Fitch will never find their balls to do even that joke of a downgrade. AA+? Who are you kidding?

PaperBugsBurn's picture

BTW Tyler, the Russians don't depend on Amerikan export markets like the Chinese and Japanese. Big difference.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Barrons interviewed Mr. Egan in this last weekend's edition.  

Egan-Jones tells their paying subscribers their ratings.  Not like the pussies at Moody's, S&P and Fitch who are paid by the debt issuers.

I would listen to Egan-Fitch, the others not so much.

DaBernank's picture

Moodys, S&P, and Fitch employees are just trying to divest from US bonds and equities before they downgrade.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Moody's says to get rid of debt limit.  I guess we're gonna ponzi like it's 1999!

Agent 440's picture


Moodys actually advocates eliminating the debt ceiling as a way to remove uncertainity. Which seems like screaming 'Jump! Jump! Jump!'

AnAnonymous's picture

Moodys actually advocates eliminating the debt ceiling as a way to remove uncertainity.


That is sound. The US is on the path of outconsuming anyone on this planet. It is the dreamed goal of the US. Winning the consumption race.

The debt ceiling is a limitator on the US capacity to magnify its consumption capacity through debt. Removing the ceiling will remove part of the uncertainty on the capacity of the US American Dream to come true.

Their analysis is sound and corresponds with US citizenism.

Accidental Farmer's picture

Amen. There is no money, only debt. Why do people still think that we have money?

There is no money

There are no courts

There is no constitution

There is no republic

There is no congress

I wish they could just finally admit it for Christ's sake. The US has been bankrupt since 1933, and there has been one world government for as long as most of us have been alive. (Of course by US I mean the corporation that usurped the republic of a similar name over 150 years ago)

Take the red pil.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Looks like Egan-Jones is another candidate for the terrorist watch list. I'm sure Homeland Security and the TSA are downloading the Egan-Jones employee list as we speak.

Cash_is_Trash's picture

Very dangerous people indeed...

Whoever questions the AAA rating shall be discliped.

Ying-Yang's picture

Egan-Jones treated to an invasive patdown

Bolweevil's picture

One's an accident, two's a coincidence, three...

Bolweevil's picture

One's an accident, two's a coincidence, three...

Cash_is_Trash's picture

Three is orchestrated financial rape!

Cash_is_Trash's picture

Three is orchestrated financial rape!

RacerX's picture

That's what I was thinking. "Off with their heads!"

ABCStore's picture

Brace yourselves...

John Law Lives's picture

<<<  today would have been a bitter appetizer of what is ultimately coming.   >>>

What is coming?  Mad Max world?

doomandbloom's picture

It is exactly what some people hope it will become...a mad max world..

While the collapse will happen as orchestrated...i hope, we dont go mad max. In this iteration of the collapse, we will need to work overcome our animalistic tendencies...

Its almost a test of our evolution as a species.

John Law Lives's picture

<<<   It's almost a test of our evolution as a species.   >>>

It will be.

The really scary scenario happens if/when the population of the Earth reaches a point where there are not enough basic resources (i.e. potable water) to support continued growth in large areas.  That is happening today in some regions of the world.  Desalination plants and wastewater treatment plants are capital intensive, so there is no simple and inexpensive solution to this growing issue.

doomandbloom's picture

There are a few ideas online to suggest that either

a) there ARE plenty of resources

b) if not, we need to work together to manage them

I do not doubt the ability of a human mind to come to a solution to these problems. We need to come out of our current survival fear which forces us to store things. Or our need for self importance to show how much more we have stored over others.



Oh regional Indian's picture

doom, not good times ahead for sure. Count on it. But time is flying faster as I'm sure everyone has noticed, nuclear clock has us synchonized to the pico-second.

2013 will come, but will we be here to see it?

And what defines a currency as fungible? Ultimate fungibility or immediate fungibility?




Gohn Galt's picture

I'll be here.

Don't count on the government going away; just don't count on them being there for you.  Rome tried to destroy itself many times and it still survived hundreds of years.

Nuclear contagion on the other hand, other pollutants in the air, water and food supply, all too real.  It isn't as hard to be self sufficient as some are taught.  Any family or person can set up an indoor aquaponics operation for personal consumption.  It would take a weekend to build, 1 - 2 hours day maintenance.  In six weeks you can start living off the vegetables and in 6 - 18 months the fish.  In a greenhouse is okay, you can also use your basement with led lighting, easier to control the temperature and reduce rf or other exposure.  Purifying and distilling is water is very basic, so is filtering the air.  I am sure there is a power source you have, gas, bio, thermodynamic, you just have to look for it, think it through.

If you have to deal with parasites, psychos, or their robots; don't take them head on, learn the art of fighting without fighting and have them take care of themselves.  Learn to groove in your environment and leave a window open for humanity.

John Law Lives's picture

Potable water is scarce in certain regions today.  Desalinating seawater consumes tremendous amounts of energy, and wastewater plants are expensive to build and operate.  Potable water is the most vital resource to human life.

doomandbloom's picture

sure the challenges are there....there could be more...

the money, intelligence, resources spent on creating weapons for destruction could equally be used to create wastewater plants....

not as easy as i put it...but not impossible.

Are we ready to help each other out? or are we worried of our own survival?

John Law Lives's picture

<<<   Are we ready to help each other out?  >>

Good question.

<<<  or are we worried of our own survival?  >>>

Wall Street is worried about its own survival, and it seems to make the rules.

doomandbloom's picture

wall street want us to believe that we will not survive without them....thus justifying their  own existence...

I see wall street as an 'admin' function - to help producers meet consumers- which grew too big.

we will not lose them one bit, if they disappear tom.

I am already seeing this happen in small instances, where innovative people have started using the internet brilliantly. Its just that over a period of time majority of us have grown too dependent/lazy on these 'admin' functions. Its time to take back some of the activities and do it ourselves. It will be a bit painful to start off with.

Dirtt's picture

Plenty of clean, fresh & tasty H2O here. Yummy.

My problem is having so much clean, yummy tasty water that storage is the issue. MMMMM.

victor82's picture

Thunderdome. Mad Bikers. Tina Turner.

"Two Hedge Fund Traders Go In. One Comes Out."

RobotTrader's picture

They should downgrade to A, and bonds will skyrocket up even faster.

5-yr. still at 1.42%, wow....

Everybodys All American's picture

It is coming ... S&P basically said they are going to downgrade the US if the agreement does nto contain at least 4 trillion in cuts.

SheepDog-One's picture

Exactly right, good point....and that will never happen although I suppose they can promise it.

PaperBugsBurn's picture

Isn't beautiful to watch all these cockroaches squirm before the 18-wheeler hits them? All these politicians in Dc and so little guillotines! Wall Street will flee with thegold but these pols aren't nearly as wealthy.

HungrySeagull's picture

Cockroaches don't squirm. They flee. Usually when you flip on the light looking for a snack during sleep time at night. They run straight for the darkest holes they know of.

Only this time there is a Sun rising and there will be no dark places left.

lolmao500's picture

Which is still a joke. Fitch said nothing so far... Moodys is saying ``you don't need no stinking debt ceiling``! So no way Moodys downgrades the US.

lizzy36's picture

Fitch is a french company. nuff said.

Cash_is_Trash's picture

Hell, Obama's a commie, and look at the disasters he's caused.

Accidental Farmer's picture

Of course he's a commie. America is a comunist country. All ten planks are in place and have been since the 30's.

Archimedes's picture

That is 400 billion a year off of 1.7 Trillion. But let's face it. If they cut 400 billion in spending we will be in resession for all of 2012. Obummer ain't gonna let that happen and crush his election chances.


If the eCONomy is barely afloat borrowing 1.7 Trillion imagine what happens when you cut 400 billion. Riot time as Social Security, Military, Unemployment insurance and Food stampsd get cut.

Libertarian777's picture

It's such BS. $4 trillion in cuts over 10 years still means we increase the national debt at an additional $1.2trillion a year. In 10 years, factoring an increase of rates to say 4.5% on the 10 year, the national debt will exceed 200% of GDP in 10 years.

Accidental Farmer's picture

That's only if you used the "Cooked Book" numbers that they are giving you. Debt to GDP with unfunded liabilities and dirivatives is at 900% right now.

Hedgetard55's picture

Get your DOW 10k hats out, friends.

Transitory Disinflation's picture

DOW 9K hats and T-Shirts are cheaper to buy.

problemfixr's picture

In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act.
-George Orwell

lolmao500's picture

In a time where money rules it all, lying will make you a rich bastard.

Freebird's picture

"Egan-Jones generally views cases of excessive currency devaluation as a de facto default."

worth saying again.




DaveyJones's picture

Sure it is, It's a confession really

Version 7's picture

They're gonna be shut down and taken to court under the Patriot Act for financial terrorism.