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Egan-Jones Downgrades US From AAA To AA+

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While others huff and puff, and threaten to do what had to be done ages ago, the one truly independent and capable NRSRO, Egan-Jones, downgraded the US from AAA to AA+ over the weekend.

From the release:

Real GDP increased at an annualized rate of 4.0% in Q1 2011, following an increase of 3.5% rise in the prior quarter. Personal consumption expenditures, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment contributed positively to growth during the quarter. Meanwhile, imports rose sharply. In the March 2011 quarter, trade in goods and services resulted in a deficit of $562B, many because of the high price of petroleum. However, the major factor driving credit quality is the relatively high level of debt and the difficulty in significantly cutting spending. We are taking a negative action not based on the delay in raising the debt ceiling but rather our concern about the high level of debt to GDP in excess of 100% compared to Canada's 35%. Nonetheless, since the US's debt is denominated in dollars, a hard default is unlikely.

And while there is much more in the full report (mind you nothing of it is surprising to anyone), the post script is spot on:

Nota Bene

History has proven that defaults on domestic public debt do occur. In fact, seventy out of three hundred twenty defaults since 1800 have been on domestic public debt (1). Egan-Jones does not view a country's ability to print its own currency as a guarantee against default. Additionally, Egan-Jones generally views cases of excessive currency devaluation as a de facto  default.

Luckily for the status quo there are no trillions in structure finance and money market instruments tied to the AAA rating of the US. If this downgrade had been performed by Moodys or S&P, or even France-owned Fitch, today would have been a bitter appetizer of what is ultimately coming.

 

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Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:14 | 1466105 lolmao500
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Moody, SP and Fitch will never find their balls to do even that joke of a downgrade. AA+? Who are you kidding?

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:21 | 1466142 PaperBugsBurn
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BTW Tyler, the Russians don't depend on Amerikan export markets like the Chinese and Japanese. Big difference.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 13:32 | 1467001 DoChenRollingBearing
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Barrons interviewed Mr. Egan in this last weekend's edition.  

Egan-Jones tells their paying subscribers their ratings.  Not like the pussies at Moody's, S&P and Fitch who are paid by the debt issuers.

I would listen to Egan-Fitch, the others not so much.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:29 | 1466165 DaBernank
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Moodys, S&P, and Fitch employees are just trying to divest from US bonds and equities before they downgrade.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:53 | 1466263 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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Moody's says to get rid of debt limit.  I guess we're gonna ponzi like it's 1999!

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:32 | 1466168 Agent 440
Agent 440's picture

 

Moodys actually advocates eliminating the debt ceiling as a way to remove uncertainity. Which seems like screaming 'Jump! Jump! Jump!'

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 11:05 | 1466307 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Moodys actually advocates eliminating the debt ceiling as a way to remove uncertainity.

 

That is sound. The US is on the path of outconsuming anyone on this planet. It is the dreamed goal of the US. Winning the consumption race.

The debt ceiling is a limitator on the US capacity to magnify its consumption capacity through debt. Removing the ceiling will remove part of the uncertainty on the capacity of the US American Dream to come true.

Their analysis is sound and corresponds with US citizenism.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 11:56 | 1466595 Accidental Farmer
Accidental Farmer's picture

Amen. There is no money, only debt. Why do people still think that we have money?

There is no money

There are no courts

There is no constitution

There is no republic

There is no congress

I wish they could just finally admit it for Christ's sake. The US has been bankrupt since 1933, and there has been one world government for as long as most of us have been alive. (Of course by US I mean the corporation that usurped the republic of a similar name over 150 years ago)

Take the red pil.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 13:03 | 1466877 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

*clap*

ORI

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 13:28 | 1466978 lesterbegood
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+1776

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:14 | 1466106 Cognitive Dissonance
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Looks like Egan-Jones is another candidate for the terrorist watch list. I'm sure Homeland Security and the TSA are downloading the Egan-Jones employee list as we speak.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:53 | 1466262 Cash_is_Trash
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Very dangerous people indeed...

Whoever questions the AAA rating shall be discliped.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 14:15 | 1467198 Ying-Yang
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Egan-Jones treated to an invasive patdown

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:57 | 1466279 Bolweevil
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One's an accident, two's a coincidence, three...

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:59 | 1466282 Bolweevil
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One's an accident, two's a coincidence, three...

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 11:01 | 1466294 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Three is orchestrated financial rape!

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 11:04 | 1466306 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Three is orchestrated financial rape!

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 11:37 | 1466504 RacerX
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That's what I was thinking. "Off with their heads!"

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:14 | 1466112 ABCStore
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Brace yourselves...

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:15 | 1466114 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

<<<  today would have been a bitter appetizer of what is ultimately coming.   >>>

What is coming?  Mad Max world?

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:24 | 1466152 doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

It is exactly what some people hope it will become...a mad max world..

While the collapse will happen as orchestrated...i hope, we dont go mad max. In this iteration of the collapse, we will need to work together...to overcome our animalistic tendencies...

Its almost a test of our evolution as a species.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:41 | 1466214 John Law Lives
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<<<   It's almost a test of our evolution as a species.   >>>

It will be.

The really scary scenario happens if/when the population of the Earth reaches a point where there are not enough basic resources (i.e. potable water) to support continued growth in large areas.  That is happening today in some regions of the world.  Desalination plants and wastewater treatment plants are capital intensive, so there is no simple and inexpensive solution to this growing issue.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:49 | 1466246 doomandbloom
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There are a few ideas online to suggest that either

a) there ARE plenty of resources

b) if not, we need to work together to manage them

I do not doubt the ability of a human mind to come to a solution to these problems. We need to come out of our current survival fear which forces us to store things. Or our need for self importance to show how much more we have stored over others.

 

 

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 11:05 | 1466317 Oh regional Indian
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doom, not good times ahead for sure. Count on it. But time is flying faster as I'm sure everyone has noticed, nuclear clock has us synchonized to the pico-second.

2013 will come, but will we be here to see it?

And what defines a currency as fungible? Ultimate fungibility or immediate fungibility?

 

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/07/16/66th-anniversary-of-trinity-and-thoughts/

 

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 17:31 | 1468031 Gohn Galt
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I'll be here.

Don't count on the government going away; just don't count on them being there for you.  Rome tried to destroy itself many times and it still survived hundreds of years.

Nuclear contagion on the other hand, other pollutants in the air, water and food supply, all too real.  It isn't as hard to be self sufficient as some are taught.  Any family or person can set up an indoor aquaponics operation for personal consumption.  It would take a weekend to build, 1 - 2 hours day maintenance.  In six weeks you can start living off the vegetables and in 6 - 18 months the fish.  In a greenhouse is okay, you can also use your basement with led lighting, easier to control the temperature and reduce rf or other exposure.  Purifying and distilling is water is very basic, so is filtering the air.  I am sure there is a power source you have, gas, bio, thermodynamic, you just have to look for it, think it through.

If you have to deal with parasites, psychos, or their robots; don't take them head on, learn the art of fighting without fighting and have them take care of themselves.  Learn to groove in your environment and leave a window open for humanity.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 11:07 | 1466325 John Law Lives
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Potable water is scarce in certain regions today.  Desalinating seawater consumes tremendous amounts of energy, and wastewater plants are expensive to build and operate.  Potable water is the most vital resource to human life.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 11:13 | 1466362 doomandbloom
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sure the challenges are there....there could be more...

the money, intelligence, resources spent on creating weapons for destruction could equally be used to create wastewater plants....

not as easy as i put it...but not impossible.

Are we ready to help each other out? or are we worried of our own survival?

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 11:16 | 1466388 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

<<<   Are we ready to help each other out?  >>

Good question.

<<<  or are we worried of our own survival?  >>>

Wall Street is worried about its own survival, and it seems to make the rules.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 11:23 | 1466427 doomandbloom
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wall street want us to believe that we will not survive without them....thus justifying their  own existence...

I see wall street as an 'admin' function - to help producers meet consumers- which grew too big.

we will not lose them one bit, if they disappear tom.

I am already seeing this happen in small instances, where innovative people have started using the internet brilliantly. Its just that over a period of time majority of us have grown too dependent/lazy on these 'admin' functions. Its time to take back some of the activities and do it ourselves. It will be a bit painful to start off with.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 13:29 | 1466980 Dirtt
Dirtt's picture

Plenty of clean, fresh & tasty H2O here. Yummy.

My problem is having so much clean, yummy tasty water that storage is the issue. MMMMM.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 11:43 | 1466538 victor82
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Thunderdome. Mad Bikers. Tina Turner.

"Two Hedge Fund Traders Go In. One Comes Out."

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:15 | 1466116 RobotTrader
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They should downgrade to A, and bonds will skyrocket up even faster.

5-yr. still at 1.42%, wow....

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:16 | 1466118 Everybodys All ...
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It is coming ... S&P basically said they are going to downgrade the US if the agreement does nto contain at least 4 trillion in cuts.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:21 | 1466139 SheepDog-One
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Exactly right, good point....and that will never happen although I suppose they can promise it.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:24 | 1466154 PaperBugsBurn
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Isn't beautiful to watch all these cockroaches squirm before the 18-wheeler hits them? All these politicians in Dc and so little guillotines! Wall Street will flee with thegold but these pols aren't nearly as wealthy.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 12:35 | 1466752 HungrySeagull
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Cockroaches don't squirm. They flee. Usually when you flip on the light looking for a snack during sleep time at night. They run straight for the darkest holes they know of.

Only this time there is a Sun rising and there will be no dark places left.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:20 | 1466140 lolmao500
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Which is still a joke. Fitch said nothing so far... Moodys is saying ``you don't need no stinking debt ceiling``! So no way Moodys downgrades the US.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:34 | 1466188 lizzy36
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Fitch is a french company. nuff said.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:57 | 1466278 Cash_is_Trash
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Hell, Obama's a commie, and look at the disasters he's caused.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 12:01 | 1466615 Accidental Farmer
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Of course he's a commie. America is a comunist country. All ten planks are in place and have been since the 30's.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:40 | 1466210 Archimedes
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That is 400 billion a year off of 1.7 Trillion. But let's face it. If they cut 400 billion in spending we will be in resession for all of 2012. Obummer ain't gonna let that happen and crush his election chances.

 

If the eCONomy is barely afloat borrowing 1.7 Trillion imagine what happens when you cut 400 billion. Riot time as Social Security, Military, Unemployment insurance and Food stampsd get cut.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 11:00 | 1466284 Libertarian777
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It's such BS. $4 trillion in cuts over 10 years still means we increase the national debt at an additional $1.2trillion a year. In 10 years, factoring an increase of rates to say 4.5% on the 10 year, the national debt will exceed 200% of GDP in 10 years.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 12:03 | 1466631 Accidental Farmer
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That's only if you used the "Cooked Book" numbers that they are giving you. Debt to GDP with unfunded liabilities and dirivatives is at 900% right now.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:16 | 1466120 Hedgetard55
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Get your DOW 10k hats out, friends.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:21 | 1466141 Transitory Disi...
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DOW 9K hats and T-Shirts are cheaper to buy.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:18 | 1466129 problemfixr
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In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act.
-George Orwell

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:27 | 1466160 lolmao500
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In a time where money rules it all, lying will make you a rich bastard.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:19 | 1466131 Freebird
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"Egan-Jones generally views cases of excessive currency devaluation as a de facto default."

worth saying again.

 

 

 

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:33 | 1466179 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

Sure it is, It's a confession really

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:19 | 1466132 Version 7
Version 7's picture

They're gonna be shut down and taken to court under the Patriot Act for financial terrorism.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:22 | 1466149 Transitory Disi...
Transitory Disinflation's picture

I sometimes wonder if those of us who hold Gold would recieve the same treatment!!!

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:19 | 1466133 doomandbloom
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Egad!

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:21 | 1466143 BeerWhisperer
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Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:22 | 1466146 oogs66
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a reasonable report, with rational conclusions, and an appropriate action.  shocking from a rating agency

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:24 | 1466147 SheepDog-One
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And dont forget Dagong already chimed in-

Dagong Rating Agency: "The US Has Already Defaulted" | zero hedge

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 11:13 | 1466365 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Tracking Dagong ratings on the main cast of countries involved in the current drama (that is the Western world [including Japan], Shouth Korea, BRIC) is real fun.

They've somehow managed to look as the agency that  was right before the others as a lot of ratings converge towards Dagong ratings. It is the case for most of the countries involved in the drama that Dagong rated worse than China. The last bulk of resistance is on countries that Dagong rated better than China.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:22 | 1466150 gulf breeze
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Robo

Your bank rally is making me rich.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 11:14 | 1466371 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

Gulf Breeze

 

hahahaha!

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:25 | 1466158 Blithering ORSA
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Stop grading on a bleepin' curve!  The US is bankrupt.  Hold the auction and pawn the sh-t off.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:32 | 1466184 BlackholeDivestment
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...munch munch munch. Looks like the beast needs a toothpick, think I see part of it's foot still stuck in it's mouth. Oh, that's Tiny Tim's aborted children. Same thing. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfaX-1yuKAA&feature=fvst

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:33 | 1466186 SheepDog-One
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AA+ is a big enough joke with a collapsed economy and $1.5 Quadrillion in debt....nevermind how the AAA was still there till now.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:36 | 1466197 Stuart
Stuart's picture

It's not enough.   Regardless how these immediate talks end, we're going to be doing this all over again in a year or so.

 

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:45 | 1466231 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Egan-Jones: "...a hard default is unlikely."

Perhaps, but the Softi-Falt Street Express left the station 3 years ago and that little choo choo is now under full steam....

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:48 | 1466242 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Since Bush's second election was a fraud (see exit poll variances plus stories Diebold jiggering) and Obama's election was also a fraud (since he is not elible), repudiate all debt issued under the two combined.  Then we can talk about "austerity."  Also since UST debt is mostly fungible, attribute all the "illigitimate" debt to the Fed holdings and implode the Fed.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:53 | 1466260 XenoFrog
XenoFrog's picture

Heh, you Diebold guys are still around? It's "eligible" by the way.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 11:15 | 1466381 AnAnonymous
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Bitterness of the US citizen towards his government: "the big bad government is forcing me to pay on the debt."

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:51 | 1466257 Platinum_Investor
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The rest of the rating agencys will be following soon.

The US is doomed.  Got Gold, Got Silver?

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:54 | 1466267 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Since Bush's second election was a fraud (see exit poll variances plus stories Diebold jiggering) and Obama's election was also a fraud (since he is not elible), repudiate all debt issued under the two combined.  Then we can talk about "austerity."  Also since UST debt is mostly fungible, attribute all the "illigitimate" debt to the Fed holdings and implode the Fed.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 11:15 | 1466386 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Bitterness of the US citizen towards his government: "the big bad government is forcing me to pay on the debt."

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:56 | 1466272 SilverDoctors
SilverDoctors's picture

And HKMEx just announced the launch of Silver Futures as well! Everything's going wrong for the US today!

http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2011/07/hkmex-to-launch-silver-futures...

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 11:24 | 1466434 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

Because it wasn't Moody's, S&P or LeFitch it won't have the same impact, but it at least generate discussion, and that's something. I wonder how much the ESF has paid the big three ratings agencies?

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 12:33 | 1466743 HungrySeagull
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Enjoy!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qW6gzoD7qTg

One of the best in movie making

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 12:36 | 1466754 DNB-sore
DNB-sore's picture

There is a world except Moody, SP and Fitch?

saved?

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 12:38 | 1466760 DNB-sore
DNB-sore's picture

Where are the upgrades or is everything going to stall in a story of less-negative proportions?

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 13:18 | 1466938 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Egon-Jones is one of the few raters I read. Moddys and S&P are near worthless...as Bill Gross said.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 13:47 | 1467067 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

And Egan-Jones was being VERY nice...

A couple more notches would have been practical.

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