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That estimated fair value on loans / receivables makes me suspicious. Only an approx. 20% haircut from carry value. And an assumption of improved markets and limited downside doesn't make me all tingly either.
Icahn's 80-85 % is probably less delusional than a 90% hold out. But then, what the hell do I know ......a blind man in a world of one-eyed pimps.
Your right, how the hell can anyone talk about "improved markets". Let's just take a look at that alone:
The consumer has just taken roughly a 1 trillion haircut in reduced CC limits, increased fees fines yada!! Company's are laying off hundreds of thousands which will have a major impact on corporate sqft requirements. I don't see anything over the horizon that would make me want to touch CRE with a barge pole..
Missing something am I??
Yes, we must both be missing something.
And I will note that these data are nearing the 90-day age mark. The cake that was baked here is missing more than just a few special ingredients. But the Icahn 80-85% scenario confuses me. He's selling something called optimism to someone, not himself, that's for sure . Yet I recall he is more than capable of getting his hands cut with falling knives.
Why the selloff? Did something happen in the bod market? This is pretty drastic. S&P just dropped almost 25 points in a 1/2 hour or so. What the hell is going on?
I got in on ERY @ 10.52, just 'cause it looked so juicy. Next thing I know it takes off like a bottle rocket. But it killed my gains on IO, so all in all I'm kind of flat. I came here to see what the hell is going on - this reversal. Major sell programs.
Is this a technical move off the dollar, like they're parroting on CNBC? Or is this something more provocative?
The most important thing last week was the DXY and S&P touched intraday twice but could not hold below 75 and over 1100 respectively. Dollar shorts and SPY longs feel overextended and certainly don't want to add to their positions atm. So far the sell-off has been orderly on a percentage basis even tho the euro chart looks like support over 1.50 just collapsed.
ATM this just looks like a reflexive move as many risk assets and high beta equities are holding in there. I like to look for signs of asset liquidation to confirm dollar strength, primarily focused on gold in that context. But so far, just seems like an oversold bounce for the $.
Addendum: looking at the eurusd side by side with the 10yr, looks like whetever forex selling went on was put into Treasuries. I got no way to know for sure, but the implication would be a big player putting on a deflation trade.
Yet again bondholders thinking that they can get better recovery by killing the company instead of agreeing to a deal that will secure jobs and the operational integrity of the firm.
Corporate bondholders are starting to really look like bad guys these days.
Stop talking that Obama crap about bondholders. Bondholders have contractual rights that they can & should exercise in case of BK. Let's live up to those legal contracts entered into freely by both parties sir. If you wish to live in a country where legal rights are trampled, please go elsewhere, maybe Obamaland would be a good place for you.
I'm tired of this "secure jobs and the operational integrity of the firm" point of view. Liquidate the company, return the monies to bondholders and if there's someone with a better business plan to fill the void, let them fill the niche.
Right on, Lion. I'm sick of hearing that yarn that bondholders should sacrifice an encumbering investment to prop up a dead carcass. And corporate bonholder rights are being trampled, for the simple reason they are now being consistently and illegally pushed down the ladder of asset recovery. The auto bailouts.....I believe Chrysler.....should have been the Supreme Court test case on bondholder rights. Ginsburg wouldn't hear it. I was stunned.....and shouldn't have been. Should have seen that coming in the new ObamaNation.
Anyway....this rant is not over. There will be a cascade of bondholder rights issues coming in 2010.
Amen, Rainman. Zombie companies whether they be auto, banks, financial services, or widgets should be pruned by liquidation. It will be painful, but more pain is inflicted on everyone when they are further propped up for political reason. Clear the decks, free the capital for uses where it is better served especially in a debtor nation. I'll be ranting with you & defending my rights under the law.
After Hurricane Katrina, it was widely speculated that a person could have used the catastrophe to cover up a lot of things. This depression and subsequent "financial meltdown" is giving a similar cover to financial thugs. This is a good example of that.
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