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Egypt: Next Steps

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The following chart from a research report by EFG Hermes lays out what Egypt's future would and/or should look like on paper.  In flow chart format it presents how the authors' view on the future of the country that recently underwent a military coup for the next 2/3 years. Of course, as flow charts tend to generally misrepresent complex non-linear and chaotic systems, and furthermore is created by an investment bank, the probability of events panning out as expected is minimal. Nonetheless, for those who wonder what the broad economic development pattern of Egypt may look like, or at least how the consensus perceives it, this chart is for you.

And below is HFG summary of the key variables:

We believe the recent political events in Egypt will have a negative short-term impact on the macroeconomic environment, although the events provide hope for a significant move to a more liberalised political and strengthened economic framework in the medium term. We aim to provide some initial guidance on the economic impact of the situation and possible implications for interest rates and the EGP outlook. We highlight, however, that given the high level of uncertainly, this is an initial analysis, and we will refine our view as developments unfold.

NOT AN ECONOMIC-OR FINANCIAL-TRIGGERED EVENT

Importantly, Hosni Mubarak ceding power to the military on 11 February will speed up the process in restoring economic and political stability and a return to normality, albeit under a transitional political period. We believe it is important to note that when comparing Egypt’s current position to earlier global crises that this is led by political developments and not sparked by a financial or currency crisis. Thus, we believe Egypt will be in a strong position to intervene in the economy, despite the fact that political developments will have a profound impact on the economy, with Egypt having limited fiscal space, even pre-crisis, and inflation stubbornly remaining above 10.0%.

We believe that there are two critical areas of support – the ample FX reserve position and a strengthened banking sector (with improved liquidity and greater NPL coverage) – unlike a financial-led crisis, which places substantial stress on the economy. Vitally, the ample net foreign asset (NFA) position should help to manage any periods of downward pressure on  the EGP and allow a managed weakening of the currency. We believe that a gradual weakening will be an important anchor for the economy, leading to a return of confidence. The FX reserve position allows the Central Bank of Egypt to intervene to ensure ample liquidity in the banking system, if required, to meet the government’s borrowing requirements as external funding comes under pressure.

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Thu, 02/17/2011 - 17:09 | 971644 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Many commodities surged again today. Maybe Egypt should start printing more of its own currency and kite its own stock market... and then LIE about the negative effects to its people as their middle class starves to death.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/futures/

The Ben Bernank = Pathological liar and psychopath?

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 17:17 | 971685 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

spot 31.80

march 31.75

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 17:46 | 971829 Steroid
Steroid's picture

Seems Backwardation! Is it permanent or just a spike?

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 01:36 | 973241 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

The revolution will not be flowcharted (either!)

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 17:21 | 971648 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Unless functional legal mechanisms to establishing property rights (like clear, defensible and transferable titles etc.) are put in place, that regular people can utilize without wasting half their life, I think it's all just going to be a bunch of shit-stirring.

And I don't see any mention of that here.

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 17:36 | 971785 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

If they do not find people with good transferable property rights like the Indians, they wont make  it.

That is the lesson taught by the US.

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 17:15 | 971676 LehmanRefugee
LehmanRefugee's picture

This analysis is a good linear way of looking at the events. The underlying assumptionis that the worst is behind them. I am not so sure this is true. I view this as the first chapter in an ongoing saga with multiple additional shocks to come.

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 17:17 | 971680 jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

"NOT AN ECONOMIC OR FINANCIAL-TRIGGERED EVENT?"

ROFL

So that's what Free trade ideology, deregulation of Egyptian banks, and Genocide Ben's printing food prices into the stratosphere is considered now?

No, these are the straws that broke the camel Mubarak's back, but that isn't a trigger...of course.

 

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 17:18 | 971686 erik
erik's picture

Today was a high.  Tomorrow should be down big, between 12-24 S&P points intra-day, but will likely buy ~5-6 pts of the losses back into the close.

Any takers?

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 17:24 | 971725 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

Sure, Eric.   I am in.    Duke & Duke stakes.  

[I would love to see you win big.  This is a very small hedge for me.]

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 19:15 | 972171 erik
erik's picture

Deal.  I'll even go further since I might as well go big since my neck is on the line.  I expect tomorrow's open will be the high for the day.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 11:37 | 974146 erik
erik's picture

crow for breakfast, lunch, and dinner today.  yummy!

looks like another OpEx Friday snoozer instead.  finish up 1-3 points into the holiday weekend.

i wonder if we'll be up on the first day next week, lol.

speakerFTD, you are the victor.  i know it seems a little early but if it doesn't happen in the first hour, it is not going to happen.

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 17:28 | 971752 arkady
arkady's picture

Getting my clock cleaned trying to short this beast, all my indicators might as well be tossed into the trash bin.  I have no idea what hell is going on in Ben's casino anymore. 

What are you looking at to suggest such an intra-day dip?  That would be a huge correction in this market.

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 17:36 | 971787 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

red

unless you feel lucky you could play the 0 or 00

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 19:25 | 972196 erik
erik's picture

Don't give up now.  At least see what the market brings tomorrow.  There is sufficient evidence suggesting tomorrow will be down big intra-day and down at the close.  If the evidence advances over the next couple weeks and shows a top being put in place for a correction, I will write it all out, ok?  I just called today a high based on the evidence, but not necessarily the top in this rally since November.

Of course with Bernanke, Geithner, and Mervyn King all speaking tomorrow before the market opens we have to respect the potential for chaos.

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 17:20 | 971696 Misean
Misean's picture

Didn't they have any pyramid shaped flow chart templates in their PowerPoint folder?

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 17:22 | 971714 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

How in the world can anybody say it's not an economic event? That's the dumbest thing I've ever heard of. The only reason you have an overthrow of governments is due to economic events.

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 17:24 | 971721 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

..

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 17:23 | 971724 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

But Israhole wants and thinks that it has the right to, all lands up to the Nile River per the Biblical text. Now then, I know and you know that is nonsense, but this is their goal. If that is the case and it is, then all of this discussion about Egypt and the days ahead must be measured taking what I just said into account. Another words, Egypt as a country is finished, unless the people there wake up and take control of what is their land and realize what the real problem is around there and what the real truth is. Also one must understand that there are many jews in Egypt, jews that converted to Islam, long ago. So now you have the Israeli enemy in front of you and the enemy of your people inside the gates of the city. Does this sound familiar?

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 17:28 | 971753 Misean
Thu, 02/17/2011 - 17:40 | 971806 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

double plus good

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 17:43 | 971820 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

First they came for the communists,
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a communist.

Then they came for the trade unionists,
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a trade unionist.

Then they came for the Jews,
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a Jew.

Then they came for me
and i said hold on while i change into something you can believe in.

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 17:24 | 971729 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

ORECONOMIC

Classic.  Does this mean they expect a contracted PM play in all this?

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 17:38 | 971796 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

oreoconomic?

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 17:49 | 971855 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

close it's oreoeconomic - the Egyptians were rioting due to Oreo shortages and Mubarak said I will not step down, let them eat Oreos!

 

I really need to stop drinking during lunch....

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 17:35 | 971783 Miss America
Miss America's picture

YOU stink TD!!!  I've been working on this for days now, and you've beaten me to it.

 

My analysis is done differently, and has different results...  BUT I WANTED TO BE FIRST.

 

Congrats, well done.

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 17:41 | 971807 Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

What QE is doing is dissolving the bonds/bounds of a tribal society, whether it is in the Arab world or a public union in Wisconsin.  Those societies are the most brittle, brutal, and blunt.

In Egypt's case, look at their oil production:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mer/pdf/pages/sec11_5.pdf

This revolution business doesn't help tourism (++ economic engine).  Middle East problems could result in issues with the Suez Canal (++ economic engine).

With oil production dropping, Egypt's got troubles.  I didn't see that on the above chart.  I guess someone wants to get rid of some "pounds", British or Egyptian...

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 17:42 | 971816 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

All that matters is that stocks are pricing in an international boom in consumer spending, Egypt and Tunesia being the front-runners.

Especially when you look at the outrageous breakouts in consumer stocks like Cabela's (I didn't know Egyptians knew anything about fishing....LOL..), Timberland (I thought 90% of Egyptians were barefoot), Estee Lauder (I didn't know Middle Eastern women wore any makeup...)...

The new bank I am working for is going to be installing an new state of the art operating system from Jack Henry & Associates.  I am also working with Fair Isaac to develop a new automated commecial credit scoring program.

Both stocks are going ballistic, proving that community business banking is coming back with a vengeance.  Maybe 200 new Citibank and HSBC branches are going to open up in Cairo??

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 18:01 | 971893 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

nothing they have is "state of the art" , now i know you are a tool.

 

The stock is balistic because of the recent buys and of course they throw off a lot of easy money.

 

However, well you can figure it out or not.

community banks will are being killed.

another 500-600 are going down the drain.

 

Most have shutoff their spending they are scared to death.

 

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 18:13 | 971952 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

well if it isn't the old catfish mouth robotool putting in an appearance to tell us he was once again out in front of two wildly popular stocks - jkhy ave daily vol 441k and fico ave daily vol 240k - which he just happened to buy and coin money on. don't you wish you had the stock picking ability of the old catfish mouth.

in the meantime, as the catfish mouth would say, the robotool's short silver play is looking a little limp in the wrist. but that's ok since he has the consolation prize of knowing that he schooled gentleman jim sinclair on appropriate investing techniques. but not to worry since from robotool's network of friends in high places we now all know that the jpm silver short position is a myth, and that of course, there's no inflation in the land.

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 17:47 | 971833 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

I heard the CIA is going to install Dick Cheney as the new Egyptian dictator.

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 20:12 | 972386 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

summer of rage.  read your history.  Middle East has been amazingly calm for the past 50 years because of the oddity of the Cold War and its focus on Europe. The collapse of the Soviet Union is your tell--it's a free for all throughout the entire Middle East now with all opportunistic eyes on "The Kingdom."  Isn't it amazing that darn near all the world's oil comes from a single small spot on the planet.  Don't be surprised if the entire thing gets "blowed up."  If I can't have it...then no one can....!!!!!

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 23:05 | 972968 downwiththebanks
downwiththebanks's picture

This is a riot.

Like some clown with WordArt can predict the trajectory of a REVOLUTION from his little desk in front of his little computer!

I thought the REVOLUTION was over when the junta took command?

That's what I read here.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 03:09 | 973347 freedmon
freedmon's picture

This is hilarious! What a retarded projection. Was it done by an 8th grader at the state department? It's just wishful thinking: Egypt will open its markets up to us! Goody!

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 11:37 | 974130 erik
erik's picture

nm

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