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Is Egypt A Preview of 2015 America?

Tyler Durden's picture


Love them or hate them, only the most self-deluded can claim that the NIA, and its predictions, have been incorrect so far in this monetary 'printing' cycle. Sure they may have an agenda, and yes, Gen Ben may one day pull his money (if he is willing to see the S&P plunge to 666 and well below, so not really), which would kill all commodities, and certainly gold, in their tracks, but focusing solely on their message will have spared many massive real (not nominal) losses as surging commodity prices dwarf the modest pick up in stocks. Today's note from the NIA, while unpleasant, looks at the disastrous long-term consequences of the Chairman's monetary policy, and concludes rightfully so, that absent a diametric shift, which after today's press meeting may well require a revolution as the creature appears to be well on its way to QE3, 4 and so on, what is happening in Egypt is a preview of what will happen in the US in a few short year. Furthermore, the NIA's prediction that rice is up, up and away is in line with what Zero Hedge has been claiming since October (link). Also as a reminder, and as David Tepper just confirmed today, the realization that Rubber is the third and last R-bubble is starting to percolate...

Egypt: Preview of America in 2015, from the NIA
The rioting and looting currently taking place in Egypt is primarily a result of massive food inflation and shows what all major cities in the United States will likely look like come year 2015 due to the Federal Reserve's zero percent interest rates and quantitative easing to infinity. On December 16th, 2009, NIA named Time Magazine's 2009 'Person of the Year' Ben Bernanke our 'Villain of the Year', saying he created "unprecedented amounts of inflation in unprecedented ways" and "When it costs $20 for a gallon of milk in a few years, Americans will have nobody to thank more than Bernanke."
What started out a few weeks ago as protests in Algeria with citizens chanting "Bring Us Sugar!" and five citizens being killed, quickly spread to civil unrest in Tunisia which saw 14 more civilian deaths, and has now spread to riots in Egypt where 300 Egyptian citizens have been killed. Food inflation in Egypt has reached 20% and citizens in the nation already spend about 40% of their monthly expenditures on food. Americans for decades have been blessed with cheap food, spending only 13% of their expenditures on food, but this is about to change.
NIA was the first to predict the recent explosion in agricultural commodity prices in our October 30th, 2009, article entitled, "U.S. Inflation to Appear Next in Food and Agriculture", which said we have a "perfect storm for an explosion in agriculture prices". A couple of months later in 'NIA's Top 10 Predictions for 2010' we predicted "Major Food Shortages" and said, "Inventories of agricultural products are the lowest they have been in decades yet the prices of many agricultural commodities are down 70% to 80% from their all time highs adjusted for real inflation". Over the past year, agricultural commodities as a whole have outperformed almost every other type of asset, with silver being one of only a few other assets keeping pace with agriculture. (On December 11th, 2009, NIA declared silver the best investment for the next decade at $17.40 per ounce and it has so far risen 64% to its current price of $28.39 per ounce).
The world is at the beginning stages of an all out inflationary panic. Wheat, which NIA previously called on 'NIAnswers' its favorite investment besides gold and silver, is now up to a new 30-month high of $8.63 per bushel and has doubled in price since June of last year. Algeria bought 800,000 tonnes of wheat this past week, bringing their total purchases for the month of January up to 1.8 million tonnes, which was quadruple expectations. Saudi Arabia is also beginning to stockpile their inventories of wheat. Rice futures have gained 8% during the past few days with Bangladesh and Indonesia placing extraordinary large orders. Indonesia's latest rice order was quadruple its normal allotment and Bangladesh plans to double rice purchases this year. Meanwhile, the U.S., which is the world's third largest exporter of rice, is expected to cut production by 25% in 2011.
NIA considers rice to be one of the world's most undervalued agricultural commodities at its current price of $15.96 per 100 pounds and forecasts a move back to its 2008 high of $24 per 100 pounds as soon as the end of 2011. NIA believes cotton, at its current price of $1.80 per pound, may have gotten a bit ahead of itself in the short-term. In NIA's first ever article about agriculture on February 17th, 2009, we said that cotton's "upside potential is astronomical" at its then price of $0.44 per pound. NIA pointed to increasing sales to textile companies in China and the fact that cotton was down 70% from its all time high as reasons to be very bullish on cotton at $0.44 per pound. Early NIA members could have made 309% on cotton, but today we see much bigger potential in rice. The recent spike in cotton reminds us of the 2008 spike in oil. Although we believe cotton will ultimately rise above $3 per pound later this decade, we could possibly see a dip to below $1.40 per pound first.
Many people in the mainstream media have been criticizing NIA's recent food inflation report, claiming that agricultural commodity prices have very little to do with prices of food in the supermarket. CNBC's Steve Liesman, in particular, claims that "rising commodity prices won't cause inflation". Liesman has it backwards. NIA has never claimed that rising commodity prices cause inflation. Soaring budget deficits that the U.S. government can't possibly pay for through taxation causes inflation when the Fed is forced to monetize the debt by printing money.
Rising commodity prices are only a symptom of inflation. The reason NIA was so bullish on agricultural commodities going back two years ago when we produced our first documentary 'Hyperinflation Nation', is because while gold is the best gauge of inflation and is often the best tool for predicting future money printing, agriculture is where the majority of the monetary inflation ends up going after the Fed's newly printed money trickles down to the middle-class and poor. With gold prices already surging two years ago when we produced 'Hyperinflation Nation', NIA said in the documentary "food prices have the potential to surge most during hyperinflation".
One thing NIA is almost 100% sure of is that come year 2015, middle-class Americans will be spending at least 30% to 40% of their income on food, similar to Egyptians today. As NIA warned in its latest documentary 'End of Liberty', if you don't have enough money to accumulate physical gold and silver, it is important to begin establishing your own food storage, and store enough food to feed you and your family for at least six months during hyperinflation. Many store shelves in Egypt are now empty after recent panic buying, with shortages of nearly all major staple items throughout the country.
The U.S. Treasury is getting ready to sell $72 billion in new long-term bonds next week, as the U.S. rapidly approaches its $14.29 trillion debt limit. The debt limit is now expected to be reached by April 5th and Treasury Secretary Geithner warned the U.S. will see "catastrophic damage" if it isn't raised. With the Federal Reserve now surpassing China and Japan as the largest holder of U.S. treasuries, the real "catastrophic damage" ahead will be hyperinflation as a result of the U.S. government doing absolutely nothing to dramatically reduce spending. It is an absolute joke that Obama during his State of the Union address announced $400 billion in spending cuts over the next 10 years, but then the very next day, the Congressional Budget Office increased its 2011 budget deficit projection by $400 billion to $1.48 trillion.
Not raising the debt limit would be a good thing, as it would force Washington to live within its means. Sure, the stock market would collapse and the U.S. economy would enter into its next Great Depression, but at least it would save the U.S. dollar from losing all of its purchasing power. In fact, the standard of living for middle class Americans might actually improve if the government allowed the free market to put our economy into a depression, because goods and services would get cheaper.
The U.S. economy has become a drug addict that is dependent on cheap and easy money from the Federal Reserve. While Wall Street bankers took home a record $135 billion in total compensation in 2010, up 5.7% from $128 billion in 2009, this money was stolen from middle-class and poor Americans through inflation. The more monetary inflation (heroin) the Federal Reserve creates in order to satisfy the (in the words of Gerald Celente) "money junkies" on Wall Street, the more middle-class and poor Americans become dependent on unemployment checks and food stamps just to survive. Millions of American students are graduating college with hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt but no jobs. Luckily for them (but not holders of U.S. dollars), NIA is hearing reports from both unemployed and underemployed college graduates with student loans that the government is reducing their required monthly payments by sometimes 90% or more based on their current incomes.
China and Japan recently saw their credit ratings downgraded, while the U.S. credit rating remains at "AAA". NIA believes it would make far more sense for the world's largest debtor nation to be downgraded instead of the world's two largest creditor nations. The Federal Reserve's second round of quantitative easing has yet to even reach the halfway point and the Fed already holds about $1.11 trillion in U.S. treasuries. By the time QE2 is over at the end of June, the Fed will own $1.6 trillion in U.S. treasuries, about what China and Japan own combined. Shockingly, Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig is already dropping hints about QE3. According to Hoenig, the Fed may consider extending treasury purchases beyond June 30th, 2010, (the scheduled completion date for QE2) if U.S. economic data looks disappointing.
With the Fed taking over as the largest holder of U.S. treasuries, China is beginning to rapidly move away from the U.S. dollar and into gold. In just the first 10 months of 2010, China imported 209 metric tons of gold compared to 45 metric tons in all of 2009, a stunning five-fold increase. While the western world is downplaying the threat of inflation as much as possible, Asian countries understand that hyperinflation is the most devastating thing that can possibly happen to any economy. The demand for gold in Asia right now is the most intense it has ever been, as they look to tackle rising inflation before it becomes hyperinflation.
The Chinese are so smart that families are now giving each other gold bullion as gifts instead of traditional red envelopes filled with cash. China is now on track to soon surpass India as the world's largest consumer of gold. The China Securities Regulatory Commission recently gave Beijing-based Lion Fund Management Co. approval to create a fund that will invest into foreign gold ETFs.
U.S. stock mutual funds saw $6.7 billion in net inflows during the past two weeks, the most in any two week period since May of 2009. The rioting, looting, and civil unrest in Egypt is now making the U.S. look like the safe haven of the world, even though it should be considered the riskiest place to invest. From the Dow's low in August until now, about $38 billion was actually removed from U.S. stock mutual funds, despite the stock market rising 20%. The Dow Jones has been rising from September until now solely due to the Federal Reserve printing around $350 billion out of thin air. When central banks print money, stock markets often act as a relief valve due to there being too much inflation going into the hands of financial institutions.
The U.S. M2 money supply surged by $46.6 billion during the week ending January 17th to a record $8.8623 trillion, following a rise during the previous week of $7.6 billion. The rise in the M2 money supply over the past two weeks of $54.2 billion equals an annualized increase of 16%. The M2 multiplier now stands at 4.218 compared to a long-term average of 10. When QE2 is complete, the Fed's monetary base will likely stand at $2.59 trillion. A return to the long-term average M2 multiplier of 10 means we are due to see a 192% increase in the M2 money supply and that is not even including a possible QE3 and QE4.
The U.S. economic ponzi scheme could unravel very quickly in the years ahead, with the velocity of money increasing much faster than anybody expects. As more Americans learn about NIA and become educated to the truth about the U.S. economy and inflation, a complete loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar could occur very suddenly. It is important for all Americans to prepare as if hyperinflation will be here tomorrow. At least in Egypt, their currency still has purchasing power and their citizens are trying to implement a regime change before it is too late. By 2015 in America, it will already be too late and the civil unrest here has the potential to be many times worse.

h/t Robert


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Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:24 | 932715 asdasmos
asdasmos's picture

"Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Up Slightly in January to 9.8%"

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:34 | 932751 Haywood Jablowme
Haywood Jablowme's picture


Interesting how the purchasing price of military surplus level 2 armor / OTV has gone way up when I first picked some up just 2 short years ago. 

Hell, the gains I could make selling these on ebay today can easily exceed the gains (un-realized) I've made on physical gold / silver in the same time frame.

Surplus armor for the sheep late to the party BIZNITCHES!


Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:37 | 932781 asdasmos
asdasmos's picture

I sense an insane amount of business prowess.

Thanks for sharing.


Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:45 | 932800 Haywood Jablowme
Haywood Jablowme's picture


yes, it does take a certain amount of business prowess and business "balls" to put a considerable amount of bullion on the TBTF credit card tab.....   :)

I sense a little bit of envy from a paid government troll.  <sarcasm on>

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 19:00 | 932851 asdasmos
asdasmos's picture

Make no mistake, there is no government troll here.


I am merely commenting on your 'armour' venture.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 20:24 | 933110 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

You don't know anyone who's been in a riot zone (e.g. Rodney King riots in LA), do you?

Let's say your city decides to riot.  The cops are nowhere to be found (they went home to protect their families).

...How much is his spare set of body armor and a shotgun with 100 rounds worth to you now, motherfucker?


Thu, 02/03/2011 - 20:33 | 933141 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

That depends. If I already have enough shotguns and body armor, then not so much.  That wasn't really your point, though.  Sorry.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 21:41 | 933336 johnnynaps
johnnynaps's picture

keep your body armor and your shotgun, you will need them when I drop a piano on your head from 80 floors above!

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 08:48 | 934177 Havok
Havok's picture

I got IIIA!!!!!!!!

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:21 | 932719 kengland
kengland's picture

Ohhhh suuuree. Our police and military will just stand around and watch. Shit...they can't help themselves over a seatbelt ticket. What do you suppose they'll do when I try taking over?

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:51 | 932750 Michael
Michael's picture

Learn about the history of the middle east. Here is a pretty good documentary series.

The Power of Nightmares, (Part 1/3), "Baby it's Cold Outside"

The Power of Nightmares Part 2: The Phantom Victory -- by Adam Curtis

The Power of Nightmares Part 3: The Shadows in the Cave

Check out a youtube video I made.

The Precautionary Principle Who Benefits?

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 06:23 | 934049 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

You will never rise up. Its in the food - Chickens and the cheese now control you. Ingest it ,its good for you.  After You eat you will feel a tiredness come over you and you will lay on the sofa and turn on TV. Its sounds will lull you first by the noise then by the Boredom and it's repetitiousness nature. Then you will sleep in overheated rooms and not feel the shock of freezing cold. You ARE sedated and lulled by all the things that you own but that own you.

When the power goes out, the food shelf bare and the police become not paid but remain a force, Then and only then will you sweat for the preservation of your life. Until then buy the Fucking DIP even though you buy nothing of any value except numbers in space. 

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:21 | 932722 AbandonShip
AbandonShip's picture

2015? nah, too soon.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:59 | 932859 tbd108
tbd108's picture

Nah. Too late. How about next year when the Super Wal-Marts aren't just busy on the last night of the month with food stamp customers waiting for midnight but are overflowing with food stamp customers angry because the haven't eaten much in the last two weeks.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:22 | 932725 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

When was China downgraded?

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:27 | 932743 bunkermeatheadp...
bunkermeatheadprogeny's picture

I wonder what the Nuevo dollar will look like.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:27 | 932746 OptionsHedge
OptionsHedge's picture

How would you play it? Buy commodities? Buy precious metals. Buy TBT? And what would happen to Egypt by then? Save sensationalism. But that's bread and butter.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:28 | 932748 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

My thoughts also.....the fat ass MSG laden sheeple will need more time than that to get pissed enough to take it to the streets, as long as we have bread and circus-the game will go on

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:09 | 934471 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

ah yes......


with the price of bread set to skyrocket and a pending NFL/circus lockout, american idle viewership down 23million folks, mayhap the sheeple go 'dawn of the dead' sooner than later


i'm thinking october of this year, 2012 at the very latest

i'm buying silver off of craigslist at 3 bucks below spot for halfs and dollars

6 months food in the house already

the aforementioned body armor

and plenty of shotty shells and sealed russian rounds galore

and the disaster cabin deep in the woods

if shit doesnt go nuts , i'm covered with conventional assets also

straddle playing life

redundancy redundancy redundancy

i dont know how many times i have to say it

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:28 | 932749 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

2011-2012.....not 2015....this thing is coming to a town near us and soon....the monetary system will be backed by gold shortly......

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 19:41 | 932971 sabra1
sabra1's picture

look how quickly the riots started. how fast they spread. they know the bernank is responsible. do you all not think that they would want revenge?

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 20:29 | 933126 GreenSideUp
GreenSideUp's picture

Monetary system backed by gold?  As in a reset?  2nd time I've heard/read that in as many days.  More info please.  

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 23:02 | 933590 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ I think I need ...      (a drink?)

Yeah, my sense is sooner than 2015.  The Bearing has a poor record of short-term calls, but has a sense that there is too much grit in the system for it to keep rolling until 2015.

I would respectfully have some doubt that a monetary system backed by by gold is coming or even desired.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:28 | 932753 arkady
arkady's picture

When did 300 Egyptians die?  Do they just make these numbers up?

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:39 | 932790 Tyler Durden
Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:58 | 932857 asdasmos
asdasmos's picture


Thu, 02/03/2011 - 19:03 | 932877 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Ha. I suggest adding that in the sidebar under the other "It would be very wise of you... " entry.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 19:16 | 932920 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

After I make corrections to my comments, how do I get the whiteout off my computer screen?

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 20:10 | 933058 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Become a screen licker.


(Note: not the same as a split licker)

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 20:18 | 933074 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Cute!  I now know what screen licker means because I googled it.  I'm just gonna guess split licker has something to do with bowling.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:29 | 932756 OptionsHedge
OptionsHedge's picture

How would you play it? Buy commodities? Buy precious metals. Buy TBT? And what would happen to Egypt by then? Save sensationalism. But that's bread and butter.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:57 | 932849 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Yeah tyler give us some ideas. We want the quant tyler back. Where are you hiding him?

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 19:08 | 932889 redbud
redbud's picture

It you really think everything's going to suddenly freeze up or crash, play it the same as 1978-80. Gold to store, 40% (clad) half dollars and small-bill FRNs for transactions, good set of hand tools, gardening supplies, ammo and such, a well or other water supply, a fireplace or wood stove and chain saw, emergency candles, a store of vitamins and medicines, and enough supplies to eat and stay warm for a year. Gold went from 200 to 800, silver went from 5 to 50, and it didn't take long. And be nice to the old folks in the neighborhood, who can be your best security system ;-). Be prepared, and don't be scared. This too shall pass. 

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 21:45 | 933352 johnnynaps
johnnynaps's picture

stockpile alcohol, buy a motorcycle/bike and read a book on military strategy. Oh yeah, get in shape. Obesity will cost so much more $$$$.

Sat, 02/05/2011 - 17:34 | 937858 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Get ready to participate in the black market as a buyer and seller.

What do you have to sell?

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:34 | 932769 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Why wait until 2015?  Things will sink sloooowly..... then boom, it's over. You're screwed! 1929.

That's to get all the suckers to think they still have time. The big fish strike fast. You're the bait.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 19:23 | 932931 KickIce
KickIce's picture

That's how I see it, one of these days we'll wake up and it'll feel like we're in a foreign country.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 20:12 | 933066 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

I'm already way past the feeling of waking up in a foreign country. I feel like I'm living on an alien planet.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 20:32 | 933132 KickIce
KickIce's picture

It's only going to get worse.  Never could figure out why my team never chose me to give the pre-game pep talk.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 23:06 | 933601 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

Will get worse.  Prepare!  And try to enjoy these days now, for they will be seen as the Good Old Days...

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:38 | 932782 SgtShaftoe
SgtShaftoe's picture

The NIA should really start thinking multidimensionally.  Yes, inflation is happening, and yes we could have hyperinflation, but the US is unlikely to look like Egypt, It's likely to look like something completely different.  I wrote a post a few days ago about this where I graphed a rolling increase in commodity prices as a percentage of per/capita income:

If Bernanke and the other CBs keeps pushing the print button we're going to see more of the same. We've already got inflationary inertia which will be hard to stop.  So we could very well have half of the planet on fire, and China and India near heavily armed conflict, but it probably still won't affect the US like it is affecting the Middle east.  Net, by the time the USA is affected like we see in Egypt, most of the world, including europe will be on fire.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:59 | 932858 SgtShaftoe
SgtShaftoe's picture

Posted another one here about what we're likely to see:

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 21:14 | 933250 calltoaccount
calltoaccount's picture

and what if Americans finally came to understand how badly they have been lied to, cheated, and stolen from by politicians, corporations and others they trusted to be acting in good faith?  

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 23:20 | 933638 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

If nothing has happened by now nothing will happen. Most American will let themselves be reduced to homeless paupers.  TPTB have nothing to worry about, carry on with the looting.

Sat, 02/05/2011 - 17:35 | 937862 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

How do the TPTB loot an underground barter economy?

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 23:12 | 933623 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

B9K9 earlier today on another thread had a great comment.  He said that we can learn from Egypt's mistakes.  What each of us can do for ourselves when we see first something happen, then the next thing...

SgtShaftoe!  I agree that Europe will get it before we do.  Mostly because of the Muslim underclass and their being further along in Socialism.  But, I really do not see how the USA escapes BIG TROUBLE as we have done NOTHING in solving our financial problems.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 20:49 | 933181 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Why do the kids have bands on their heads?  Obama govt/Google mind control?

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 20:52 | 933193 MacedonianGlory
MacedonianGlory's picture

Read Harrison Bergeron

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 22:16 | 933456 Bárðarbunga
Bárðarbunga's picture

Those bands are bandages.

They've been whacked in the head by rocks for ten hours straight.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:39 | 932793 ATM
ATM's picture

the sheeple will get up and riot as soon as their free ride ends because their welfare checks don't buy a stylish life any longer won't even buy enough to get fat.

Then we'll have riots in the streets which is exactly the plan isn't it?  

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:40 | 932795 Kitler
Kitler's picture

Say what you will about Bernanke, but he's certainly no fool. All the world is a stage, and Ben is playing his part well on behalf of his banker constituency.

Ben will pull liquidity again when the time comes, just like he did in '08 to precipitate a crisis and provide the trigger for his carefully engineered industry bailout.

The markets will SCREAM for liquidity and the TBTF's will be flush and ready.

The deals will be astounding.

I love Ben.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:58 | 932852 dumpster
dumpster's picture

B B is a liar and a fool,,


any one who would place the world and people ahead if his kleptomaniac's production deserves little kitler fools,, Basking in his diapers of fools play pen youth  

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 19:37 | 932957 Kitler
Kitler's picture

Ben is a liar. Ben has to be a liar to create whatever confidence he can in a failing system, it's part and parcel of his job. And if he told the unvarnished truth what would you think the result would be? Right.

I repeat, Ben is no fool. He is the new maestro.

The CEO of the any corporation has a duty to maximize the financial interests of his/her shareholders. You and I are not a shareholders of the Federal Reserve.

Sat, 02/05/2011 - 17:40 | 937873 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

There are a number of possible endgames that Bernanke could engineer.  The only thing that they have in common, the only thing that is necessary, is that the TPTB get informed in advance, so they can place their bets.

Everyone else will have to be lucky.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:43 | 932808 AUD
AUD's picture

2015? That's a way's off. The government bond market could seize up any day. Such is the nature of credit bubbles.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:44 | 932810 jakethesnake76
jakethesnake76's picture

Yes, but i like to look at it from the bullies angle, how they are setting this up and what the confusing ,contraditory things being said and done are pushing this whole world to chaos .. These are Masters of Disaster and they are playing Egypt like a fiddle and subsequent contries upto and including ours which has been set up for many years for this tipping point , very good article..... 

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:45 | 932811 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture to make money with blogs:


NIA's new gold/silver stock suggestion is Garibaldi Resources Corp, currently trading on the TSX Venture exchange at $0.295.

GGI is a Canadian junior mining company focused on the exploration for gold, silver and base metal deposits along the central and northern parts of the highly prolific Sierra Madre mining belt located in northwestern Mexico.

GGI controls seven district scale properties covering more than 2,000 square kilometres of prospective stratigraphy surrounding and along strike from some of the most robust gold and silver mining projects ever discovered in Mexico including El Sauzal, Mulatos and Ocampo.

As part of the GGI's "Rapid Assessment Protocol", GGI is committed to utilizing the world's most sophisticated remote sensing technologies to effectively target major alteration systems commonly associated with significant gold, silver and base metal discoveries.

As of GGI's latest public disclosure, the company owns 4,662,300 shares of Paramount Gold (PZG). PZG has been one of the best performing exploration plays on the AMEX during the recent weeks and closed Tuesday at $3.85 per share. GGI's shares in PZG are now worth $17.95 million.

GGI has 50.56 million shares outstanding and a market cap at $0.295 of $14.92 million. This means GGI is being valued at LESS than the value of their shares of PZG! In order words, GGI's seven district scale properties covering more than 2,000 square kilometres are being valued by the market at LESS THAN ZERO!

GGI received their PZG shares by selling to them their Temoris Concessions. GGI originally received 6 million PZG shares and $400,000 in cash. Based on PZG's current share price, the size of the deal GGI signed to sell their Temoris Concessions was $23.5 million.

GGI's Temoris Concessions were very valuable because they were located adjacent to NIA's previous stock suggestion Coeur d'Alene Mines Corporation (CDE)'s Palmarejo property. However, some of GGI's current properties still under ownership are also in very impressive locations. GGI has properties in close proximity to previous NIA stock suggestion Goldcorp (GG)'s El Sauzal Mine, Gammon Gold (GRS)'s Ocampo Mine (GRS is the company that is in the process of acquiring previous NIA stock suggestion Capital Gold (CGC) for more than double our suggestion price) , and Alamos Gold (TSX: AGI)'s Mulatos Project.

Important Disclosure: NIA's President owns 183,000 shares of GGI that he purchased at $0.28. He has agreed to a 90-day holding period. He will NOT sell any of his 183,000 GGI shares within 90 days of NIA's profile of GGI. However, he MAY sell some or all of his 183,000 shares at any time 90 days after NIA's GGI report is published. Also please be aware that NIA's President and others associated with NIA may have previously disseminated information on GGI to other newsletters and media outlets.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 21:02 | 933220 ThePermabear
ThePermabear's picture

And, of course, we couldn't have an NIA article without a "pump" of a stock by their neferaous leader, Jonathan Lebed.  For those of you that don't know, Jonathan Lebed is famous for his "pump and dump" stock manipulation.

It's really hard to take the NIA seriously when they pepper the comments with stock tips.

After reading Tyler's introduction, I was willing to read the article with an open mind and then I stumble upon this blatant stock push and am once again wondering why I listen to anything from the NIA. 


Thu, 02/03/2011 - 22:22 | 933476 Cleve Meater
Cleve Meater's picture

As a natural skeptic, I've always been way suspicious of these NIA guys... They're making mad coinage for sure and their President seems a wee bit too glib and oleaginous.  On the other hand, their info seems sound... I can usually sniff out an agenda at twenty paces and wouldn't begrudge an honest brother for making bank, but these guys flummox me.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 22:54 | 933557 Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

It's no different than a Glenn Beck episode.  

The stories always start with threads of truth woven together very convincingly. By the end, once you've been hooked onto the story, you've got nothing but bullshit propaganda or penny stocks jammed up your ass.  

The outward message is not the same as the inner truth.  It's a very sly and effective propaganda tool - just ask the fuzzy bears.  

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:48 | 932824 RingToneDeaf
RingToneDeaf's picture

Egypt is a preview of USA 2012, Bitches!

Wake up! The empror has no clothes.

We are unable to feed, clothe or defend ourselves, just watch and see.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:51 | 932837 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

Honestly I think we will be lucky if we make it through 2011 without somekind of huge meltdown or a war. My guess it will start when the dollar falls apart. Too many other countries are onto our ponzinomics now and when the dollar starts to unravel it will happen fast. Most people will be blindsided by the rapid decent, kinda like the whores on Wall St. were the day Waddell& Reed crashed their party.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:52 | 932840 dumpster
dumpster's picture

gold stopped dead in tracks ///

a stupid comment ,, gold is not a commodity... always looking for a way to trash gold.

gold backed bonds and gold backed currencies are on the way ,, whilst the young  Keynesians slip shod slip away into obsucurity 


Thu, 02/03/2011 - 23:21 | 933642 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

dumpster, great to see you around these parts again.

I do not know about gold backed bonds and currencies, I don't think either is necessary.

Holding PHYSICAL gold IS necessary.


Keynesians have lost all credibility.  How do they even dare show their faces when they have almost destroyed our productive economy with their stupid debt ideas?

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 19:01 | 932874 mick
mick's picture

This is beyond preposterous.  Maybe the idea that the USA is about to become Egypt might be believable if you're the kind of American who doesn't own a passport, has never left the USA, and is stocking up on tinned food and ammo.  Grown ups aren't expecting the richest most powerful country the world has ever known to turn into a beggarised Arab sandbox by 2015.  The trolling's above the line this time.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 19:26 | 932939 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Hey....who you calling a troll?

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 19:32 | 932949 mick
mick's picture

Meta-trolling bitchez!

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 19:49 | 933000 sabra1
sabra1's picture

i don't think china will turn into a beggarised arab sandbox! i'm siding with china 'cause i heard their prisons are not nice! not nice at all! please pass the plastic rice!

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 21:02 | 933217 arby63
arby63's picture

You are pure idiot Mick. Most likely, you're either 30 and living in your mama's basement or a metrosexual sucking off the public dole in some fashion. We are in a world of hurt in this country. Our history is the popping of a pimple on a hippo's ass 2000 years ago. We have NO history.

You are a fool.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 22:37 | 933514 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

The US is an empire.

What's the failure rate for empires?

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 23:20 | 933637 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

Your hypothesis can be empirically tested and therefore you are guilty of hate speech.

Tone down the rhetoric, we the people, mumbling......

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 19:06 | 932886 ehildret
ehildret's picture

Outflows from Tbills will be a strong signal of the decline...


Thu, 02/03/2011 - 20:09 | 933054 The Grip
The Grip's picture

Good time to be on energy lab road.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 19:09 | 932891 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

And as the smoke cleared, and the survivors were too weak to even stand, a cloud of mist appeared, slowly creeping forward.  Two figures appeared; indistinct at first, and then recognized as a man and a woman.  The two figures started walkin; first slowly, and then with a jaunty swagger.  As they both climbed the small mountain of those who had given their all in defense of freedom, you could hear a big sigh of recognition from those still alive.  At the top of the mound, the man, dressed in utmost finery and sporting a huge gold pinkie ring, pulled the smiling woman closer and declared:


"Welcome, subjects; I am your new leader.  My name is Jamie Dimon and my new Minister of the Impossible is here by my side.  May I introduce Blythe Masters; you will worship her before any other false gods".

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 23:26 | 933654 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Not if I can help it.  

You must telling us about a recent nightmare!

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 19:15 | 932914 Danielius
Danielius's picture

I am an american, I know many Americans....  when there is a problem, they won't know why, and they will react for all the wrong reasons.  I doubt if Americans will EVER realize there is only one political party.  What to do?  Nothing good is on the horizon.  I moved to Europe.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 20:27 | 933118 hambone
hambone's picture

Jus remember,

Euro's I talk to on my biz trips are no more clued in than Merican's I know.  Germans particularly complacent and unaware...reaction may be different there but recognition no better.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 21:52 | 933378 johnnynaps
johnnynaps's picture

hahahaha, good one! Like Europe will be the safe place on the globe when TSHTF! EU countries will be pointing the finger at each other and looking to bomb someone.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 19:19 | 932915 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Ferfal has always been a good read. More practical advice than rawlings at survival blog. I dont believe we will.collapse like argentina but one thing he said was that first three to six months when eberything froze up those who had a fruit tree were way ahead. It was the small luxuries that made a difference. Ultimately in a collapse crime is your biggest issue. With the occasional disruption notwithstanding food will always be available. Latinos make it quite well around here at well below the poverty level. There is excellent clothing at resale shops and yard sales. They cook everything from scratch from bulk rice and beans bought at sams. They go to the dollar store which has amazing deals, pawn shops for equipment, and the latino grocery store for fairly cheap produce and cuts of meat. Personally i love pork neck bones, and all the odd cuts of meat. They are more flavorful and a master cook can do wonders with it. When a master chef cooks.for himself he doesnt throw a new.york strip on the grill, he will cook up some fried pig tails or braised mountain oysters. The spanish still to live really well cheaply. Dont go out to dinner. Set up with your friends, experiment with unusual stuff like buche which is really delicious in my opinion, and laugh at the occasional mistake and wash it down with lots of wine. Get out the dominoes sure when you make a good play to slam it down dramatically. I always thought dominoes was boring until i hung out with venezuelans. Laughter good friends and lots of cheap beer and wine makes dominos really fun. We dont need as much money as we think.p>

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 20:07 | 933052 Big Corked Boots
Big Corked Boots's picture

Despite your troll status I agree with you completely.

People think they need to have their senses tested to the maximum in order to have a good time. They should explore the subtleties of life; just as much fun and a lot cheaper.

And cali ham (pork butt) is Great!


Thu, 02/03/2011 - 20:46 | 933140 hambone
hambone's picture

funny - you mention cali ham and it just so happens I'm hammy and I'm in Cali this week...and here I am to respond to your subtle exploration...and agreed, I am great.

However, prefer you call me Hambone rather than pork butt!

Alsooo agree, we may not have chosen this path, but WTF, this is our life and we only get one shot so make the most of it, enjoy the simple pleasures now...cause if / when TSHTF, will be much tougher to find the joy of living.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 19:17 | 932921 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

Egypt's GDP is less than a week's worth of Treasury debt issuance.  The spectacle aside, from an economic and financial standpoint, unless you are an Egyptian, this whole topic is much said about nothing.

Egypt is a poor model to compare to the US.  Totally different demographically and economically.  I'm not saying that the US doesn't have a date with economic turmoil, just saying it probably won't look like Egypt circa 2011.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 22:52 | 933560 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

"just saying it probably won't look like Egypt circa 2011."

You are correct, it will look more like a kindergarten class high on PCP, being told that recess is cancelled for today.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 19:42 | 932975 SilverSurfing
Thu, 02/03/2011 - 19:57 | 933027 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

I really wish that Bernanke was playing with his own money instead of ours.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 02:24 | 933956 phil silver
phil silver's picture

Is there any truth in the rumor that Uncle Ben been trying to submit a comment by kept failing the Log-in quiz. Ha ha ha

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 20:09 | 933056 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Just like Tyler said Go( forest Gump)- galaxy

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 20:12 | 933065 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

I'm still asking for the login Q/A. Sorry for the minus seven (-7).

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 20:22 | 933104 TheWord
TheWord's picture

The only thing standing between 43m armed Americans and Egypt-style riots is food stamps.


Thu, 02/03/2011 - 20:27 | 933119 Freddie
Freddie's picture


5% unemployment under Bush.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 23:15 | 933614 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

Absolutely 100% spot-on, though see my earlier post about PCP.

The Egyptians are undoubedtly more well adjusted and resilient than the 300 million perpetual adolescents running around this dystopia in search of a black swan.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 20:30 | 933128 jeffgroove102
jeffgroove102's picture

I believe marilyn manson has a pretty good opinion on this article:


Thu, 02/03/2011 - 20:37 | 933151 texasradio
texasradio's picture

Isn't NIA just a propaganda front organization for Jonathan Lebed's gold and silver stock picks? I am unable to determine how much influence he currently has over the organization, but I first heard of NIA from

Lebed as source material for anything is questionable. He is still a paid promoter as far as I can tell.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 21:00 | 933212 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

   I'm not defending the post, but Garibaldi is an interesting play I have followed for a while. Picking up 2000 shares fro $400-500 is not a bad punt. Ultimately, I decided to buy PZG instead. PZG will be snarfed by PAAS or similar outfit in the future is my guess. A lot of this cross holding type companies become value traps but some do work out.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 21:20 | 933262 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Americans will not waste their time throwing rocks at the police ever.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 21:45 | 933351 bullet357
bullet357's picture

I think he is a little optimistic in that all will come unwound in 2015.  I think to be more realistic it will be the summer of 2011. Two words to live by in 2011.  Food & Ammo

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 22:07 | 933429 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

No doubt civil unrest will occur and the blood will be on Bernanke's hands.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 23:21 | 933640 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

Paul Krugman will prove conclusively that the Bernank had nothing do with it.


Nothing to see here hate mongers.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 23:05 | 933597 VodkaInKrakow
VodkaInKrakow's picture

Bernanke's job is to force The United States to raise its debt cieling. And then, do it again in six months or a year. The action is deliberate and he is not working at alleviating any financial distress on Main Street or in the markets. His job is to aggrevate them. His orders are to collapse the dollar. And, he is performing very, very well.

Who issued the order?

You have all had enough time to ask yourself why. Why is Bernanke doing so? Is he insane? Etc. The most obvious answer is: He is doing it deliberately in order to affect an adverse outcome upon the world to the benefit of a few.

This is just the beginning.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 23:43 | 933702 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Does anyone care to know what I saw on my way home tonight, on a 110,000 car per day road, in a wealthy section of my hometown, at 6:50 p.m.?


The most empty restaurant and retail parking lots I've ever seen. This, on a Thursday night, near 7:00 p.m., which isn't the slowest time for stores and restaurants, by any means.

Many businesses and business lobbies are going to be asking for Bernanke's head on a pike, but they'll be outweighted by Wall Street...until one day that will live in history books.

My only question is who 'sacrificial lambs' who - Does Bernanke sacrifice Obama in order to appease Wall Street, or does Obama sacrifice Bernanke, to appease the middle class and main street and retail business?

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 03:07 | 933985 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture



A majority of the "Ruby Tuesday" franchises in my state just shut down this past week, as in "CLOSED" due to lack of sufficient revenue.

You can see the pain and lack of revenue in the pizza commercials; Chili's, T.G.I. Friday's, etc.


Sat, 02/05/2011 - 11:49 | 937362 dxj
dxj's picture

The unrest in Egypt had a tiny bit more to do with things other than just rising food prices. NIA sees everything through the one lens of inflation, neglecting most everything else.

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