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Elizabeth Warren's Chance in the Sun
Elizabeth Warren has been all over the media of late. This lady is a
‘hot property’. And with good reason. She has all of the credentials.
Harvard Professor, eight books, the Chairperson of the Congressional
Oversight Panel, she’s on the list of the top fifty “Most influential
lawyers in America” her name even has come up as a candidate for the
Supreme Court.
Not only does she have the credentials, she has a look. There is
something about her that when she talks to the camera you get a warm
feeling and think, “Finally there is someone who is making some sense
of this mess!”
I think she is blowing smoke.
Today there was another Congressional hearing on the status of mortgage
defaults in this country. We have a significant portion (20+%) of
homeowners that are now underwater on their mortgage. The big banks went
to the Hill and swore they were doing just about everything to
unscramble the eggs. Our boys from JPM said that it would cost
“hundreds of billions” to write down the principal of the mortgages that
are underwater. 'Heaven forbid that that would happen', was the
warning. I was left wondering what the real value of their book was
given their defense that they could not afford to realize the embedded
losses.
The simple fact is that of the 1.1 mm who have requested mortgage relief
only 170k have gotten it so far and almost all of those have been
temporary reductions in monthly payments but no reduction in principal.
It is nearly two years since this blew up. We have made almost no
progress in addressing it. We are kicking a can down the road and hoping
that ZIRP finally causes some housing inflation to balance the books.
That is not working at all. It is just causing bubbles outside of
residential real estate.
Ms. Warren had strong words regarding the bank's stubborn position today.
From her interview
on ABC World News:
“It really is stunning
that this is the position that we are in. The American taxpayers have
shoveled out 100’s of billions to rescue these financial institutions
and now those same institutions don’t want to be part of the solution”.
So she gets more respect and more visibility for bashing the banks. But
my question for Ms. Warren is, “What are you doing in your own back
yard?”
Warren should look at the numbers and start stirring this pot to where
she might actually get something done. Right in the House. She can call
up Barney Frank and get the numbers. She could have lunch with Shaun
Donovan over at HUD. He has all the info for the FHA. Even better she
could take the time to drop over to see Mike DeMarco at the FHFA. He has
tons of numbers too. The all have the same number for what they have
contributed to principal debt relief. The answer is close to zero.
The ultimate cost of the Washington mortgage lenders will exceed $500
billion. As of today it is a blank check. It will be many multiples of
the net costs of the TARP. So when Elizabeth talks of “shoveling
tax-payer money” there is no greater shovel full in history than
what exists right now in D.C. The idea that “Those same institutions
don’t want to be part of the solution” should not extend to the 70%
of the mortgage market that Washington now owns is flawed logic. And
she is well aware of that fact.
I’m not sure what ‘office’ Ms. Warren is pursuing. She could set a very
high bar if she stood up to the plate and directed her rancor and
visibility toward the Agencies. She could influence the outcome of this.
She can either lead, or she can bad talk the private sector. If she
does step up she will have the support for any office she wants. If she
doesn’t, she may go back to Boston and teach.
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I think Elizabeth Warren is an ethical person who deserves respect. She isn't in this to sponge money from connections like so many in politics. I've been a fan of hers since "Maxed Out" in 2006.
This woman frightens me. Look people, just because someone gets up and starts "talkin' straight" doesn't mean they have the SOLUTION to anything. Elizabeth Warren has adroitly positioned herself to ride a cresting wave of anti-government/bailout sentiment. But her solutions involve using the same tools that got us into this crises - only in a "better" way. She doesn't have any answers - whatever goddamn list she's on, or whatever school she's been too, or whatever "warm feeling" she induces in her fans.
Power. It's all about what she CAN do.
She can't send people to jail, fire any CEOs, levy fines or assessments, nor just about anything else that is of substance. "Doing her job" does not involve being a player in solving the crisis. She can only describe what has happened and suggest some solutions.
If there were no COP (what an acronym!) we would all be screaming for one. "Why don't we have somebody looking into this situation?!"
As many have said before, it's not a bug, it's a design feature. Congress doesn't want anyone with real power usurping their own influence.
Why would anyone trust or believe someone from Harvard?
All ivy league grads should be banned from any public office!
Several people directly or indirectly noted that she "is doing something", and therefore should be given the benefit of the doubt. First, the notion that "doing something" is good, implies that what is to be done, or has been done, is good. Nothing I have read here or elsewhere would suggest this to me. Children do something all the time, but it rarely turns out as they intend. Second, and as many have pointed out, there is a very good chance she was selected for a reason (and not say Tyler Durden, or anyone commenting here). The reason being that either she wouldn't do anything that would hurt, embarrass, or compromise those in power; or she would in fact not do anything but hold hearings and sound and look good on T.V. and other MSM channels of propaganda (see reason #1 for selecting her).
Also, and I think missed thus far, is that she has already been selected to be part of the problem, not the solution. For example, well before her captivating appearances before Congress, she was already selected to be on the FDIC Advisory Committee on Economic Inclusion ("ComE-IN", which was established by Chairman Sheila C. Bair). This is one of the groups (i.e., of many) that pushed for loosening (and some would say outright elimination) of mortgage lending standards (as well as other types of lending). Yes, that alone shows she shares the current crop of idiots' banal prediliction for the asinine application of things like affirmative action in place of economically driven mortgage standards (and how's that working out for us?). For example, Ms. Warren attended a meeting in July 2007 with one of the key speakers from some organization called ACORN (the minutes indicate that they mostly discussed 'subprime lending' - here are the minutes, if you wish to be bored and care what kind of doer for the country and financial markets she is: http://www.fdic.gov/about/comein/07julyminutes.pdf). Yeah sure, she is a going to clean up this mess and shine the light of truth wherever it may take her (correction on a mess that she helped to create). Let me see, Elizabeth Warren, ACORN, or Ron Paul, let me think which two are related and which one would I trust to do the right thing for the country? Yeah, she's a doer alright, and she'll probably keep doing until we can't do anymore.
Why does the answer involve bailing out imprudent borrowers? Let's foreclose, reprice, and sell to prudent buyers with adequate downpayment and ability to service the debt. D.C. and wealth redistribution is never the answer.
Nutshell moment: "We are kicking a can down the road and hoping that ZIRP finally causes some housing inflation to balance the books. That is not working at all. It is just causing bubbles outside of residential real estate."
I would support Liz Warren. She is honest, and seems to understand the fundamentals. Are there any other humans in position to fight the financial criminals' take-over of the U.S. Government?
This is just going to keep getting worse - and more surreal. Today in Bloomberg - the big banks are urging the Supreme Court that it is basically a matter of national security that the courts must keep the bankers' money flows hidden from the American people.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ax8ulGXswn4E&pos=7
"It is very important that the people do not understand that we are stealing their money. If they knew we were stealing their money, they might get mad. And that would be bad. If we can't steal money any more, we will be sad."
They are basically arguing to the Supreme Court that the bankers must be allowed to have complete control over the United States, its citizens, and its government - and that it is imperative that the people not be allowed to understand what is going on.
If Elizabeth Warren can see this activity as treasonous, I'm voting for her.
At least Ms Warren is espousing what I consider to be rational views. +9 on a scale 0-10. Born gets a 10.
As for the supremes, this court is a little crazy, making some rulings I did never expected to see. But their rulings are essentially in the role of interpreting the constitution. This action by the banks to stop Bloomburg's filing will have to be determined on constitutional grounds.
The First Amendment prohibits "..the making of any law.."... infringing on "..freedom of speach" or .."freedom of the press.."
The due process clause of the Fourteenth Ammendment applies the First Amendment to every state, including the local governments.
But the bankers might manage to tie it up for a period of time while the issue is in the court.
Thanks for the link to Bloomberg. It reads, in part:
I understand stigma, but I also understand material information that any investor should have to make solid decisions. If an institution is having "problems" I'd certainly like to know. Or is that asking too much?
Road to Recovery, or the Afterlife
Warren, is fiscally right about so many things, but wrong about saving what is most defintely a lost cause. Do not get caught up with the grestequeness of this hit and run economy. The crowd has gathered to see the proverbial corpse (US) wither after what what looked like to many to be leathal finanical hit on the system.......... but with astonishment, a single deep breath is taken by mortally injured entity, giving the bystanders (public) a sense of maybe the victim will survive. ...... Or is it just a last gasp of air before the final farewll. God Bless America.
You say, 'If I had a little more, I should be very satisfied.' You make a mistake. If you are not content with what you have, you would not be satisfied if it were doubled. --Charles Haddon Spurgeon
Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed.--Mahatma Gandhi
Thousands upon thousands are yearly brought into a state of real poverty by their great anxiety not to be thought of as poor.—Robert Mallett
So, when all these folks get a reduction in principal, I will get a refund on the price I payed for my house?
I was going to pass on commenting, but there are just so many things wrong here. First of all, Ms Warren is doing something. Might be wrong, but it's something. I do, as you point out, feel a bit warm and fuzzy when she speaks. It's difficult to resist the feeling that someone is patting me on the head after a bad day. Useless, but nice nonetheless. All the criticism is fine, Bruce, but if she did what you advocate she'd come across like some of the crazies on the web advocating throwing the bums out. Least of all, she should not be criticised for saying that there is something she does not know. I get really tired of the know-it-alls in Washington DC.
As for comments: She does not "oversee Congress", and she did not have control of any of the assets that were misallocated. She was appointed by Congress to find out what happened to all of the (our) cash. "Warren should look at the numbers and start stirring this pot to where she might actually get something done....", etc. Then you list all the cubby-holes where she could find out the numbers. There is no need. Her job is not to trace down every cent, she has no prosecutorial power. That would be for the AG's office with her help doing the forensics. Give the lady her due. What good did David Walker do? If Ms Warren actually took the stance that is advocated she'd come across as a tin-foil-hat nut -- and she would be! Accusing her of seeking some higher "office" is disingenuous and cruel until actually demonstrated. The job is tough enough without phantom motives being applied to her actions.
Otherwise, great job, good overview, it got some attention, let some folks know who she is, and was better than nothing. I think I just used the same tactics on you that you did on her. For that I apologize.
No apology here. I do not think she would like a tin foil hat nut at all. I start with what I think is a given. Principal reduction is in the cards. It will happen over the next 24 months.
I think we have three choices.
1) Reflate housing. Been there done that. It has not and will not work.
2) Foreclose on everyone. Recycle the properties back to the system. This might be the wisest strategy. There is plenty of support for this in these comments. But this will not happen. It would accellerate the decline in values, this would just lead to more defaults. Cycle of death.
3) Lower principal and achieve true debt relief. A rising tide of underwater borrowers are choosing not to pay and see what happens. Say the solution is to keep people in their homes by lowering the interest rate to 2%. That is about 4% below market. The net present value of that difference over ten years is equal to 25% today.
My guess is if provide debt relief this way it will end better than to drag it over the next decade.
How about if the people who get this are A) Owner occupied not RE speculators. B) have to give up a future upside when and if the house is sold at gain from the new debt.
Thanks for your kind reply, Bruce. Option #2 is taking place now. Slowly, and as big a hit to the Big Banks as is possible under the circumstances. FASB 187 easing has allowed the "hide the trash" scenario, and we shall see how that works out in the long run. A bad choice but better than none I suppose. Being fair is the issue. That leads one to Option #3. The major financial bailouts of the (newly formed) Big Banks was not all that palatable to the proletariat, but that's just because they (we) didn't get our fair share of the bounty. The printing presses were already in overdrive and starting to smoke. Lowering principle for those who need it, the under-employed, unemployed, under water, etc., is going to be a bitter pill for those of us who are current and bought sanely. Recapture of equity is fine, but the paperwork is a monster. Who stays in a home long enough to allow that to happen? That would just be kicking the can a little farther down the road. The gov't hanging on the the GSEs is part of the plan for sure. More bad news will have to surface, or the real estate market will have to show more clear stress before a definitive move is made either way. See? I'm no better at figuring out this stuff than the average elected official or appointee. I've been a real estate broker since 1974 and it's still a can o' worms in my mind. All we can hope to do is whack the current mole and pray for the game to be over before we run out of tokens.
SHE HAS A PASSIVE PERSONALITY, PERIOD END OF STORY, WHY SHE WAS PICKED, IMHO
she gets credit for saying the same thing as 100 million other americans
i have a large bet with all of her credentials, she has never led any group or changed anything at all in her whole career, ie, why she was picked
it's an imment front, it's a put on
Couldn't help it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ELrXUSDrcM&feature=related
Come and join the party
Dress to kill
I'm a fan. Give her more power.
What's all this shit with contributors,(Bruce Leo) pulling posts when they take a caning? Not very fight club.
More like girl scouts.
Someone been captured?
Regards.
Elizabeth Warren took the job knowing she would have no power and would find zero support taking on Wall Street and their horse-holders in Congress and the White House. She is painting her resume.
Ask Brooksley Born. Ms Born was serious.
They are all afraid of precipitating an avalanche of writeoffs on all the crap second and third mortgages propping up their books. Pamela Anderson's Head on Elizabeth Warren's Body as requested: http://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/-vvmMNFr86ZXIaOFgWzH6w?feat=directlink
Well Bruce, you just lost my vote.
Elizabeth Warren is at least down in the trenches, trying to rally support for the resistance.
The rest of us are standing around in the car-park, kicking dirt.
How, EXACTLY, is she rallying "support for the resistance."
Who, SPECIFICALLY, pays her salary?
Watch out! Elizabeth Warren is very likely a liberal Democrat in ideological bent. Even though attempting to get the banks to tke haircuts on loan principal is outwardly reasonable, it is a populist solution which further interferes in the private contract.
It's bad enough giving the banks wads of public money to keep them in (zombified) existence. But the fact that this lady is now proposing to dictate lending policies and therefore bank profitability is worrying.
Instead, she should be directing her fire at the Agencies and, ultimately, at central bank-mangled interest rates. And at government cheap money policy itself. Her present stance is crass populism.
However, the masses wouldn't like being bypassed on the "help me" gravy train. Even less would they like being exposed for the idiotic spendthrift borrowers they are, I guess, but that's another fight.
I like Warren because she has tried to level with ordinary people and induce them to put pressure on their congresscritters. However, I think the real problem here is the American people. The population is just too damn uneducated. If they were really concerned, they would be reading Zerohedge! How many Americans read ZH?
So how do you get peoples' attention? You have a really deep and nasty depression, that's how. Unfortunately, our mouthbreathing voters will then vote in a Mussolini or some other far right national socialist like Sarah Palin. Realistically, it's time for people to give up on the governement fixing things. That's the lesson Dmitri Orlov took from the Russian debacle after the collapse of the Soviet Union. In that sense, ZH is a distraction from the really important issue of saving one's own skin. Check out Cluborlov.com.
Of course many on this site have given us much insight on the best guns to buy to protect ourselves from Armaggedon, where each of us is holed up in his concrete bungalow ready to blow away the coming hoardes. What a laugh to hear all of these (presumably) puny financial nerds talking like grizzled war veterans!
I think she is trying, but look at others that were more forceful and aggressive. Brooksley Born was not intimadated or deterred by the likes of Greenspan and the rest of the gang. They took away her authority and rendered her powerless. Look at Ron Paul, he tries and tries but gets nowhere. These patriots are powerless without the peoples mass support. If you want to blame somebody for the ineffectiveness of Warren perhaps the blame lies on you and me for our complacency.
Ayup: but when was Brooksley Born on TV? She attempted to rely on the power of office and she got kneecapped.
Political power comes from media rabble-rousing, and that is exactly what she is doing. She has cheerfully gone way past the purview of a TarpCzar and seized the opportunity to push her agenda.
The other power base is bureaucratic manipulations; Dick Cheney was the king. But she's going to have no effect on TARP as the Czar De TARP: it's all about the media appearances.
Maybe there is more than one way to skin a cat. Perhaps she is trying to educate the masses and get some support. Look what Martin Luther King did when people got behind him in protests, boycotts, and marches on Washington. She is no MLK, but we aren't exactly doing our part either. Its easy to point the finger and criticize.
And here it is again, the sons-of-bitches who can get er' done, aren't going to be white knights on white horses, in service of the people. A son-of-bitch is just that, a son of a bitch. He/she will get er' done, so that they can amass more power, to get more done, to get more power. Doing the right thing does not necessarily lead to getting more power. If you inter the matrix with good intentions, you start to compromise if you play the game well. By the time you have "power" you yourself are compromised and the intentions you had at the begining have mutated into something more twisted and more a reflection of the system in which you dwell. You look at your prior intentions and understand yourself as "naive" back then. The cause is lost.
I believe you are right, but only about those with weak character. Unfortunately that appears to be an epidemic in todays society.
the message that the taxpayers have been screwed.
As Chair of the TARP commitee she is continually frustrated and that is (end quote)
my ten year old son .. know we have been screwd.. for years the tax payer has born the brunt of a flawed model
so what is the big deal if she voices this .
what we need overlooking congress is citizens that have a clue . and vote the rascals out . it would just take a few years to let the congress know they better shape up
but so many are on the tit of milk and honey that this is near impossible... plus the voting boxes are less than honest,
just let me count the votes .. lol
TARP is still in effect.
The stall was to have the price turn on the real estate, so losses could be minimized or eliminated, while due to FASB changes, not effect the balance sheet in the near term.
The FED worked its butt off trying to get prices to go up, and it worked for a little while, mainly through speculators. But, given the amounts the FED used to prop up the sytem, and the corresponding movement in price, I am confident they can now claim defeat.
However in the FEDs defense, they were able to buy some time. As soon as the last MBS buys complete it is the end, unless they do something more. I have a feeling that the FED knows it cannot really beat the de-leverage cycle, and will not stay in the game. The banks are on their own.
The FED has bigger fish to fry. It has to determine how to monetize our own debt, and still control rates. While at the same time, conjure up some way to tighten on all the assets it now holds, or at least present a plausible approach to the politicians.
Tell me why we need to pay Elizabeth to oversee congress? They are elected officials (congressman), who have been entrusted with great responsibility. They do not need to be looked after like children, and I do not really want to pay for a babysitter.
Mark Beck
i would argue that their actions indicate both the need for oversite, if not outright replacement. this is now a short-term game, not a government for a long-term end. much like the current markets...
they are worse than children, if you understand that children are naive opportunists. these folks are far from innocent.
re: warren, i like her presence and message, but i'm not sure where she fits in the realms of change.
Tell me why we need to pay Elizabeth to oversee congress? They are elected officials (congressman), who have been entrusted with great responsibility. They do not need to be looked after like children, and I do not really want to pay for a babysitter.
Excellent point. We create position after position, committee after committee, and if our elected officials would do their job then it would be unneccessary, its not like they ever accomplish anything. These creations cause further obfuscation and remedy nothing. Purposely incompetent. Purposely corrupt. In reference to politicians.
You, sir, are incorrect.
http://www.hankforcongress.com/
Not exactly the best & the brightest... It's no wonder our country is FUBAR. This maroon (and others) needs not only an overseer... he needs a nanny & just to be safe a cork on his fucking dinner fork .
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNZczIgVXjg
In what alternate universe can this cat find himself a member of the US Congress??? This is why I often repeat the mantra "we're so fucked". Hopefully not beyond repair...
Vote for REAL change. Vote Libertarian. Get rid of the incompetent incumbents!!!
From reading and seeing her interviews I get the impression that she is a straight shooter and knows that we are at risk of losing our Republic and its' freedoms. Check out her interviews, including Colbert and the Daily Show.
Her humble beginnings also support my view of her honesty.
She speaks the truth.
Bruce,
whatever way you turn it, we always come down to the nitty gritty of the undeniable reality: debt does not go away.
It is either repaid/restructured somehow, but repaid, or defaulted, totally or in part.
Whatever route you may want to choose, it has an uninevitable outcome. If it is repaid, also through restructuring, it has an effect on future cash flows of the debtor, and that means that the disposable income is going to drastically diminish (in the better case...) until the debt is repaid (maybe with some help from inflation...), and this means that equity and bond markets are severely delusional and a violent readjustment of expectations is needed in both.
Or, if it is defaulted, there must be an impact on the value at which is carried in the books...and extend and pretend and mark to fantasy is all we hace had so far.
Do you have any sensible idea to get out of this...eeeeeer "conundrum"??
We maybe can agree that giving money back to Joe sixpack channelling them compulsorily to abate debt would have been better than load the banks of free cash and leave them discretion on what bubble to inflate with all the despicable bail outs?
Also less moral hazardous...although not exempt.
But do you agree that we where we are now cannot continue forever???
She belongs in another century. She goes about her thankless and hopeless job doggedy. Without the slightest chance of any success. She is held in total contempt by the very congress she works for. As to the instituions she studies they don't even waste any time or energy on contempt. To them she is nothing.
She belongs in another centruy, another millenium. The one where debt meant something important. Something to not be taken lightly and often avoided. Ideas belonging to an age stretching back to the dawn of man which has been overturned by the modern business corporation.
Bullshit. She is right here, right now, trying to make a difference. You are absolutely off the mark on this piece Bruce and as for you rapier, she is part of the solution with her voice and elegance in delivering the message that the taxpayers have been screwed.
As Chair of the TARP commitee she is continually frustrated and that is why she has hit the airwaves. It is amazing how much work that she does in a 24 hour day. Anyone who disses Elizabeth Warren is out to lunch.
And Bruce, blowing smoke? Just what power do you think she has? She wants consumer protection. She isn't getting it. What is your point?
I'm with you Howard, but I see rapier's point. She needs to be more Spitzeresque to get anything done. The thing is, the person you have to be, to be that aggressive and political, makes you part of the machine.
Your missing my point which is that she isn't going to make any difference. Her office is in some sub basement in the Capital and she has zero political capital. She has no authority to do anything. Her ideas are without power, right or wrong. Whispering into a hurricane. Her task is Quixotic and doomed. Politics isn't about making things right it is about gaining and keeping power.
Barofsky the TARP IG has some power and may at lest do a bit of damage to the perps but that won't change anything either.
+++1
Not so sure about the laughter with Stewart, if you do not get hysterical giggles after all that has gone on, you might be the one with the problem.
First, I think she had good intentions, but I think once she saw the wall, she thought, 'Oh I can never climb that' and sat down in the shade.
She is in charge! We need soldiers! Not whimpering professors.
It is a very serious issue, and she is responsible for figuring it out. This is like when C. Romer announces bad news with a smile, and says, "Don't worry, it will be ok." Mother will make it ok, 'rock a-by-baby.' 'Oh, but it is a comedy show'....I do not give a damn. Look the camera dead in the eye and say it. Instead she whimpers like a little dog that is trying to understand her commands. Warren, we command you get something done! You have had all year! They stole our money, and the banksters say they will never give it back! DO SOMETHING!
If the audience wants to laugh, if Stewart wants to laugh, then fine, let them, it is very disconcerting news, I understand. But this is war, she is wearing stripes, and it is no laughing matter!
"They've told you nothing!" She doesn't know what to do? Great.....
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-april-15-2009/elizabeth-warren-pt--1
"First, I think she had good intentions, but I think once she saw the wall, she thought, 'Oh I can never climb that' and sat down in the shade."
Full frontal assault, eh? Why not ask the troops at the Alamo how that sort of thing works out. When you're outnumbered and have a bullseye on your back, you've got to be smarter than that.
We are NOT outnumbered!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Timmah junked me ;)
While I think she's a smart lady and agree with your assessment of her camera presence...I think you may be overestimating her power. More than likely...she has ZERO power and her position is just more window dressing to keep public anger contained with the illusion that the "nice, smart lady" is on our side. She may well be on our side. I do think her intentions are good...but she has no power to affect anything and the only reason she is even getting as much TV time as she is is because she doesn't rock the boat too much...just enough to create the plausible illusion that somebody in Washington with power gives a fuck.
First off, I don't think she should be on anybody's side--"our's" or "their's". She chairs an oversight panel--that makes her a fact-finder. Her agenda would be transparency and accountability, with conclusions and policy recommendations where the facts lead.
Second, her oversight mandate is for the TARP program, i.e. the implementation of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act. Seems to me, that program has pretty much run its course. Except for Citigroup, AIG, GM, GMAC, Chrysler, and Regions Financial, all TARP funds have been repaid. Those entities represent a wildly divergent set of issues, unique to themselves.
There is a separate financial crisis inquiry commission that is seeking to understand the causes of the crisis. It is with that group that recommendations and remedies will germinate, IMO--and not Ms. Warren's panel.