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  • Tim Knight from...
    04/28/2016 - 00:27
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Empire Manufacturing Index Misses Consensus Of 8.0, Prints At 7.1

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Mon, 08/16/2010 - 08:49 | 523594 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

The markets seem to love this info for a nice dead cat bounce.  Never mind that it plunged to very low levels, and is still way down.  The HFT algos all received a "buy" signal. 

Mon, 08/16/2010 - 08:51 | 523599 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

It could've come in at -7.1 and the algos would have come in buying. Like it or not, these guys are gonna game a short squeeze any way they can. Good news, bad news, no news.. its all the same to the algos.

Mon, 08/16/2010 - 10:20 | 523688 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Currently all algos are programmed with a statement (X=a^2) where a = all economic numbers, to help eliminate any an all negative signs and make the numbers seem fantabulous.

Mon, 08/16/2010 - 09:07 | 523620 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

So far it doesn't seem to be working very well for them.

Mon, 08/16/2010 - 08:50 | 523598 RRA_223
RRA_223's picture

Agreed.   "Beat expectations" would result in a huge 100+ point rally on signs of the Recovery.

"meets expectations" is also perversely the same as beating expectations - and results in an 80-100+ point rally on signs of the Recovery.

"Miss expectations" is another way of saying "this is not news" and back to the status quo of +/- 20 point days - as we continue to wait for that promised Recovery.

 

There is no negative in this news cycle, it seems...  as we keep trying to find any sampling bias that might possible support our theories of the Anytime, Now; Recovery. 

Mon, 08/16/2010 - 08:52 | 523600 Bigger Dickus
Bigger Dickus's picture

How is CNBC gonna spin this?

"Empire Manufacturing Index climbs 40% on economic data!"

Mon, 08/16/2010 - 09:01 | 523614 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

The key to the future...

" The new orders and shipments indexes both dipped below zero for the first time in more than a year, indicating that orders and shipments declined on balance; the unfilled orders index was also negative. "


Mon, 08/16/2010 - 09:01 | 523615 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"The Empire State Mfg index rose modestly from 5.08 to 7.1, yet still missed expectations of 8.0."

Where can I find a salaried position to produce something, have an expense account, vacation time, annual bonus, and consistently miss expectations plus or minus 10%?

Oh...never mind ;-)

Mon, 08/16/2010 - 09:06 | 523616 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Man, we really need Leo to come around with talk about 'massive upside surprises soon' and some pretty Chinese solar stock charts!

Mon, 08/16/2010 - 09:40 | 523653 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Where is Leo at to tell us how all his buys last week are working out for him? 

Mon, 08/16/2010 - 09:21 | 523634 Cursive
Cursive's picture

The little robotics start-up that I work with is teetering on the brink of bankruptcy.  Went into $2M of debt over the last 18 months trying to survive.  Haven't sold anything for over 3 months.  Two customers not willing to pay on installed units.  Sales leads not moving.  Customers seem very reluctant to make any moves.  I give this little company 2 months tops unless a white knight emerges.

Mon, 08/16/2010 - 09:26 | 523638 mephisto
mephisto's picture

To all above who are wondering why we are only off 30-40bps, remember its Monday, usually we are up 70-100 bps at this stage. We are about 1% below where the usual Monday morning pumping would get us to.

I think if the dealers see client bids we will pop up to flat for the morning before selling off later. If not, look out below.

This is a classic Tyler Durden macro situation where the key to the DJI behaviour is something obscure like the Irish government CDS or the funding situation of some regional Hungarian bank. Ie scarily FUBAR and difficult to explain to those without a Bloomberg terminal. Good luck everybody. 

Mon, 08/16/2010 - 09:50 | 523657 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Halfway to green now ;) 

Feds buying SPOOS like they were on sale.

Mon, 08/16/2010 - 09:49 | 523658 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

The new easiest trade in the world:

Let the market open down 50-100 points. Then buy the ES at 9:35 or so.

Works every time these days.

Mon, 08/16/2010 - 10:22 | 523692 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

TNA FTW from opening to now, then sell at 5% to go to the strip club and see some T&A.

Mon, 08/16/2010 - 10:36 | 523711 Chemba
Chemba's picture

"Empire Manufacturing"  What the hell is "manufactured" in NYS?  I-heart NY T-shirts?  It's like the "Philly-Fed index", which as best as I can tell would be a good measure if one needed to track the production of cheese-steak sandwiches.

Mon, 08/16/2010 - 11:46 | 523857 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Quite a few firearms companies, notably Kimber...  Good product.

Mon, 08/16/2010 - 10:50 | 523744 Bankster T Cubed
Bankster T Cubed's picture

front run  fed monetization of bonds and stocks

as they totally destroy all hope of real recovery

Mon, 08/16/2010 - 12:32 | 523974 pizzgums
pizzgums's picture

Who cares about New York? It's a loser state that has lost all pretense of being a manufacturing center. Anyone with any sense got the hell out of there a long time ago.

Tue, 09/28/2010 - 08:53 | 609647 Herry12
Herry12's picture

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