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Empire State Manufacturing Index Plunges, Comes At 11.9 Down From 21.7, And Big Miss To Expectations Of 19.55

Tyler Durden's picture


And the US stagflation continues. The just released Empire Manufacturing index has plunged nearly by half from 21.7 to 11.9 in May. The general business conditions index fell ten points to 11.9. The new orders index declined fi ve points to 17.2, and the shipments index slipped three points to 25.8. The inventories index climbed to 10.8, its highest level in a year. The prices paid index rose to  69.9, its highest level since mid-2008, and the second highest ever, while the prices received index held firm at 28.0. And more on the stagflation as defined by the ongoing surge in Prices Paid: "The prices paid index rose sharply, indicating that price increases accelerated over the month. The index advanced twelve points to 69.9, its highest level since mid- 2008, with roughly 70 percent of respondents reporting price increases, and none reporting price declines. This index has moved up a cumulative fifty points over thepast six months." Downward GDP revisions are a-coming.

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Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:41 | 1278630 Xibalba
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Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:42 | 1278635 Temporalist
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Mon, 05/16/2011 - 09:15 | 1278751 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

If enough people stopped watching him, he would go away.

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 09:39 | 1278852 Jeff Lebowski
Jeff Lebowski's picture

Well, then at least watch Rick Santelli give him his daily smackdown...

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 09:45 | 1278861 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

The loss of the last shreds of manufacturing is so goddamn

B  U  L  L  I  S  H  ! ! ! !

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 12:45 | 1279638 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture


Mon, 05/16/2011 - 11:17 | 1279261 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

how lame are you when becky quick schools you?

i hear liesmans kids tell people their dad is charlie sheen... 

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:42 | 1278636 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

They need to start measuring graft, bribery, positive trading days in a quarter and the use of margin hikes. Statistics is all about the input you include and what you leave out. 

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 09:28 | 1278811 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The Bernank is really giving us the worst of both worlds; much higher prices and much lower end demand (and also, horrendous organic growth and job growth, which will reassert itself in the numbers soon, culminating in more economic contraction).

You're doing a heckuva job, Bernankincide! Keep on keepin' on with ZIRP & QE, you fucking genious (genious intended as sarcasm).


Paul Krugman :hearts: The Bernank.

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:40 | 1278638 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Yet again, retailers buck off the bad news.

JCP up 7% premarket after blowout earnings.

And another horrific day for "anti-dollar" plays like big oil, gold, and foreign currencies.

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:45 | 1278650 Tortfeasor
Tortfeasor's picture

Gold flat on the day

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:46 | 1278654 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Gold is level. Forex is largely up. DXY is down.

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:48 | 1278659 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Horrific? lulz. Gold is up oil basically flat. What's your price target, momofade? I need a fade...

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:48 | 1278662 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

No comment on Lowes?

And buying shit you don't need with money you don't have, has replaced the land of the free and home of the brave as the slogan that best defines the US.

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 09:03 | 1278717 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

wow! I'm going to keep and use that one around my peeps.. thanks Lizzy

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 12:51 | 1279662 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

I was at Costco on Sunday, looking at tomatoe plants and coffee on sale.  The store was full of people buying shit they did not need, probably with money they did not have.

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:51 | 1278670 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

I'm still not buying stock until SpaceX has their IPO.

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:54 | 1278693 topcallingtroll
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That ipo would probably mark another top!

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:55 | 1278695 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

AAPL BIDU charts are telling me to short the rallies. just sayin'


Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:52 | 1278686 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

To Blindly junk RobotTrader means you do not see or consider facts when you have them infront of you.

The BIG (and better) RETAILERS are doing VERY well, thank you, because the rich spend their money there because they have it and joe six-pack does not!  I know this as a fact, because the fancy high end stores are my customers.

And yes, the attack on commodities is on or the manufacturing base ( what is left of it here in the USA) and consumer base is dead...and when that happens you see the above headlines.  The "powers" are going to drive down commodities whether you like it or loose money in the matter not.

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 09:03 | 1278733 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

I hope your right, i want to refill down around $30ish on silver

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 09:52 | 1278895 Broomer
Mon, 05/16/2011 - 09:09 | 1278745 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Whatever, RainbowTraders other user name.

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 09:06 | 1278741 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Whatever RainbowTrader retail boy, cleanup on aisle 5, get back to work.

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:40 | 1278642 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

one would think it is almost impossible to print trillions of FRN's and get this result in the economy..awe inspiring corruption and incompetence.

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:41 | 1278644 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Leisman just said, that killing the dollar is good. means manfacturing jobs.

And Fed got its inflation which is also good.

Takeaway: Leisman is a tool, who gets his head buffed to a shine every morning, hoping all that friction will cause some reaction in his brain.

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:43 | 1278652 oogs66
oogs66's picture

he looks like he is about to lose it or break down and cry or both :)

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 09:08 | 1278740 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

oh that's probably just his jealousy showing that no bankers forced him to give head like that little slave whore did.

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:51 | 1278682 digalert
digalert's picture

CNBS offers up Santelli vs Liesman smackdown...funny.

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:55 | 1278688 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Devaluation of the over valued currency and revaluation upward of the undervalued currency is the mechanism for persistent trade distortions.

The asians, in collusion with the usa, let these trade distortions get so big that it will be painful, this currency rebalancing.

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:41 | 1278646 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

You are a retard.  This stagflation you write about is transitory.  Just like DSK's freedom. 

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:42 | 1278647 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

fucking LOL - futures have gone from -59 to -31 on basis of this bad news.

can they please just stop pretending and announce QE3 already?

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:47 | 1278665 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Agreed EK the only thing that can explain stocks going up consistently on bad news is ongoing market bubble blowing by the Bernank and the Sack.

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:55 | 1278696 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Nothing was more blatant in terms of intervention, but last Thursday. Early trading trended down, but suddenly, as if magnetic, the DJIA was heading for a 12,700 finish, and nothing could shake it off its course.

Call it conspiract theory, but it would be easily explained by having set 12,700 as the daily target on a computer.

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 09:15 | 1278758 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

The only conspiracy aspect to your thesis is getting the HFTs to agree to the set points. After that it's pure profit. Your best evidence would be that every big player would make money every day...

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:51 | 1278683 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Gloom is the new buzz on Wall Street, it increases the probability of QE3.

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:46 | 1278651 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

Go back and look at April CPI numbers and the numbers say something is wrong is wonderland. UnEmployment up, government spending down, import up, investiment down and (commodity prices up)...all bad omens for manufacturing and the GDP.

Now that (we) all know how the numbers are all lies until you just can't make them lie better, WHY does anyone trade on the lies?

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:46 | 1278663 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Wall St don't trade on economic news. They trade on expectation of Fed action.

No doubt DJIA will be up by the end of the day on expectations of more free Dollars heading their way, granted by the Federal Reserve, and stolen from the middle classes.

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:52 | 1278673 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture


Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:56 | 1278694 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Yer rite EK, WS don't trade no news no more. 

It's all about the phone call. Rigged. Well rigged markets. A smooth, global stealing engine.

NUMBers never tell the truth anyways. They are after all, NUMBers.

The west is in terminal decline. If we base everything from there, perhaps the landing can be softened and the next wave well begun.

I doubt wisdom will prevail though.


Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:48 | 1278669 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Is that the deflation monster I am hearing?

Just in time for the end of qe2 as i suggested several months ago?

Dont count on any qe3 right away, at least not substantial qe3 similar to our recent qe2.

I plan to wait for deflation fears to reach their peak in order to go long "risk" assets again.

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 09:04 | 1278736 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

Be so kind as to point out to the audience just where you see (specifically) deflation?

Don't say it is housing, that is a nut case bubble just like the Belgium tulips were in the 1600's.  When a building lot in 1928 was 100,000 in Miami, and 5,000 in 1930 no one called that deflation.

Don't say it is gas, the water bill, the cable bill, food, cars, insurance, RE taxes, shoes, underwear, trash collection, school fees, a cup of coffee, a can of spray paint or metal polish since all are up ( and will not go back down again, they never have).

If you want to call what we have the first stage of stagflation, I will be glad to read you again...


Mon, 05/16/2011 - 09:22 | 1278791 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Deflation is a contraction in the credit (=debt=money) market. Credit is contracting, and will continue to do so. That's deflation. It hasn't been felt yet, except for housing (yes, it was a bubble, but when it pops, it deflates, no?). US households lost somewhere between $7-$9 trillion in value that hasn't been recognized thanks to our new, fraudulent accounting rules. It will eventually be recognized.

The Fed's manipulations have allowed us to ignore deflation temporarily, or should I say, transitorily.

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 09:29 | 1278795 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

All real estate, residential, commercial, industrial; wages, real jobs, natural gas, consumer electronics, phone bills, interest income, dividends, private pensions, and soon, local and state spending.

Almost everything except taxes, medical costs, college tuition, and commodities.  Oil will go back down due to market forces.  Wish I could say as much for taxes.

Oh yes, and Japan Inc. plus most of the Orient;)

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:52 | 1278675 ivars
ivars's picture

Is the USA stock market finally here (where Greece was in October 2009)-in stimulated maximum:

and/or here ( before big plunge?):




Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:53 | 1278678 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Empire Strikes Back Bitchez

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:52 | 1278687 jtmo3
jtmo3's picture

No sweat. Rally until the free money stops no matter the data. Does anyone really think we have to make something here to be the biggest market on the planet? We're going to the moon because, no one else has the reserve currency. Simple as that. We get to do mostly whatever we want. You don't think that pisses off the rest of the world?

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:56 | 1278690 razorthin
razorthin's picture

QEx commeth

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 09:47 | 1278870 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

I am become Bernank, the monetizer of all-time

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 09:04 | 1278735 monopoly
monopoly's picture

The wealthy cannot hold us up indefinitely. At some point they will say "to hell with it" and they will also stop spending. We are slowly moving lower day after day. Have 0 interest in this market, moved to mostly cash last week and will wait for reality to set in. Still not shorting and hoping to get back into gold, silver before it rockets higher. But have all my physical.

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 09:14 | 1278757 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

Paper money...paper kings...con the public...then steal your rings.

We forget that when the US went off the gold standard, and made it a criminal offense to own gold, the population obliged.  The idea of a 10,000 dollar fine and 10 years in a federal jail did not appeal to the masses in the 1930's (just think that you could buy very a nice house for 1,000 in DC and equate that to 10,000 in fines).

I could be VERY wrong, but fighting the 'powers' that we do not understand or see may once again, turn PM ownership into a nightmare.  Are you going to be in the streets if that happens?  No, I don't think we will be.

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 09:19 | 1278781 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

What PM's?  Nothing to see here.  Why don't you and your partner come in for some coffee?  So glad you are keeping the neighborhood safe. ;-)

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 09:15 | 1278753 Imminent Collapse
Imminent Collapse's picture

Propaganda continues, but at some point the truth becomes understood.  That's when the shit hits the fan.  Get the hazmat suits ready.

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 09:14 | 1278759 Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

This is bullish for QE3.  Expect a green close.

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 09:16 | 1278765 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Who still manufactures anything in NY?  The economy sucks, but that chart looks like a random walk.

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 10:23 | 1279049 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

New York and Manhattan, especially, engineer and manufacture financial weapons of mass destruction, the kind which Buffett used to warn against but now has warmed to (post-bailed out Buffett), which they export all over the globe.

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 09:19 | 1278766 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Finite planet bitches.  Now get back on the hamster wheel and stuff those pipelines with even crappier products!

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 09:52 | 1278911 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

stuff those pipelines is right!  look at the rise in inventories!  

The Empire Goes GM

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 09:25 | 1278793 MiniCooper
MiniCooper's picture

Agree with topcallingtroll

"I plan to wait for deflation fears to reach their peak in order to go long "risk" assets again."

My view is that Political opposition in Congress is now so intense that QE3 is impossible.....until it isn't.

A gigantic commodity, stock and bond market crash would vaporise all political opposition and QE3 then would proceed.

The trick is to find the guts to go all in before that happens when assets are screamingly cheap and no one wants to buy. The likes of Jeremy Grantham at GMO say it better than I can.

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 09:47 | 1278866 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

this particular indicator had been doing bestest, too...

the economic shocks of the devastation in japan are starting to register.

fight club

$4 Tril, and now...this?  ouch!

and, japan is not getting better, fast, here, either.

b/c of the "flation" factor, i would not advise throwing more monetary stimulus at the "problem" right now.  not that anyone's asking wtf i think.  the "slack" due to japan is not ordinary "slack" and i think the world will respond as well as possible with what we have.  looks like there's plenty of liquidity right now, to me. 

stop interfering with the damned economy.  see what happens. 

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 10:03 | 1278974 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

As always, anything seems to be bullish for equities

05-16 09:51: Talk in the Pit of buy stops in S&P 500 futures from 1334.50 to 1337 and then again at 1339 to 1343
Mon, 05/16/2011 - 11:07 | 1279224 sbenard
sbenard's picture

But the Pollyanna party on Wall Street continues!

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 13:28 | 1279815 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

QE3 will be even bigger then I originally thought...prob in the $1.5 to $2 Trillion range depending on what you count.

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