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Employment-To-Population Ratio Back To October 1983 Levels: The Only Chart That Matters
The administration thinks it can pull a fast one by pretending the unemployment rate is better when millions of people are allegedly leaving the labor force in droves? That's fine - however, there is nothing Christina Romer's replacement can say to put lipstick on the below piggly chart. The ever critical ratio of civilian employment to population is now at 58.4%... It was last this low (to the upside) in October of 1983. At least in one way Obama has caught up to the Reagan administration.
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That alone should be good for 10 points in ES.
It would be interesting to see this same chart broken out by gender. Obviously hordes of women joined the workforce since the 1960s accounting for most of the percentage increase since that time. As unemployment doesn't affect one gender more than another, I conclude that women are returning to 1970s-80s levels of workforce participation, while men are implicitly returning to 1930s levels.
That's been my anecdotal experience as well; men are being laid off before women, simply because women are often more compliant, and they are viewed to be less likely to ask for raises or promotions after giving their lives to hard work.
Also, functions that were the domain of men in businesses have largely been automated or outsourced, while the growth areas (ie: paper pushing, government, accounting) have come to be dominated by females.
All in all, a very toxic combination for society. Soon enough, men will need dowrys to marry.
.....or more men will need to go Liberace gay just to get a job and fit in.
What's astonishing is that in 1983 women were only beginning to integrate significantly into the workforce. Women on Wall Street, in management, or anywhere in the FIRE sector was still a rarity. So the impact and significance of this new low employment-population ratio is especially acute.
What is happening is therefore depression-style, across the board loss of employment per available adult in the US. A depressing figure indeed and strict prima fasciae evidence of the death of the old economics, the success formula which guided the US and developed world to prosperity in the post World War 2 era.
Hey, just a quick perception shift, but while the USA is facing a period of reduced standards of living, imagine how lucky Asians and Indians feel to be living in this time of opportunity! For them, this is a golden age of growth and prosperity unknown in all of history.
+100...I never thought if it that way and exactly right. Wow thanks for the mind boost!
Callous treatment of the socio-economic underclass is a bubble of sorts and will accelerate the collapse of this society. All the pompous rambling about how you deserve the money you have won't mean a f'ing thing to someone who is hungry and has nothing to lose.
Try reciting some bible verses as someone caves your head in for your shiny car.
a passive underclass is the foundation of everything you take for granted in this world. Remember that.
would you consider that the underclass has been offshored to India and China for the past 40 years?
Their jobs have been offshored, not them. Sad part is that they are still the most vehement believers in the American Dream...
I think it's just as likely that someone will be quoting some other bible verse to justify caving in your skull and taking all of your precious shineys.
At best, the seeds of atrocity lie dormant in all dogmatic systems of thought, but especially in religions. And some more so than others.
+1 Spanish Inquisition! I love the part in The Book of Eli where they call the bible the most powerful weapon ever known to man. Truer words, my friends...
@InconvenientCounterparty:
Very true. I love some of the smug comments about extending unemployment benefits and "paying people not to work", etc. That $35 billion or so in extra costs is chump change if it prevents mass riots and a further breakdown of society. These smug asses wouldn't feel so smug if gangs of folks were scaling the walls of their wonderful gated communities to rape, pillage and god knows what else. It would make the SAW movie series seem like an episode of iCarly. As I've mentioned before (and others too), grow some balls and claw back some of the billions from the banks, AIG, etc.
I smell flash crash II.
It always works until it don't. There are no solutions on the horizon to solve the current employment depression.
cav emp, I junked you for the "gee we can't do anything, so you can't blame Obuma implication" ..
creating more debt -in 18 months than in last 50yrs- and we get zilch stimulus that I can blame.
can't figure a way to get people to work?
how about claw back the banks bailout and send checks to the taxpaying citizens in equal kind..think what that would do for employment as just one idea..
I got more..of how to fix this broke economy..don't be fooled there are fixes they just don't support the current washington elites view of the world. hint globalism is not what works.
Well, how about instead of paying people not to work we use that money to rebuild and electrify our nation's rail network. That would be stimulus that would actually accomplish something useful and provide a lot of jobs.
Oil and automobile lobbies.
I beleive that is one of the priorities of the stimulus package but probably not a big enough one. I for one am seeing lots of construction and other infrastrucutre work here in the Philadelphia region. I'd like to hear more about what's going on in other parts of the country. BTW, beofre I get junked for stating one of Obama's goals please don't lump me in as some insane liberal just cause i mentioned something.
How exactly is this is Obama's unemployment? Was there something he could've done to magically put everyone back to work? Unexplode Lehman? Magically reverse the housing bubble?
Nuking the financial sector, by not only letting Lehman go under, but also, by killing off GS, AIG, etc., without bailouts, would have led to a much faster recovery in employment.
Just GS alone destroys several hundred thousand jobs, as the $700k salaries paid to each GS worker would pay for 10 jobs in the private sector.
It is his unemploymet because he has effectively thrown atleast 2 tr USD of taxpayer money into a blackhole saying it was to boost the economy with 0 effect.
What would've happened if he did nothing? I think that would make a good article. I'd like to hear an argument that would paint a rosy picture by doing nothing.
It would definitely be better than what the US is heading for. Keeping a dead economy on life support will only make the matter worse. But you will have to wait for full disclosure for your article a year or so, when people holding doelass wake up and wished they owned pesos.
The best of Zerohedge is the real story behind the spin.
The worst of Zerohedge is the weirdo, neo mccarthyist, ultra right, uber paranoid, survivalist, flag anything as junk where Obama isn't being spit on, commenter.
Wake up function fool! Obama has the same masters as GWB.
If only I believed that chart....
How many of these "civilians" are working for the government, either directly or indirectly now vs. 1983:
Everybody at AIG, Citi, GE, Wells (you too, Goldie) etc. etc.
Everybody in autos, real estate, defense & construction (especially those guys standing around, pretending they're fixing the roads).
Wonder what the chart would look like if you backed them out.
Obama has caught up to Reagan in one way... massive deficit spending on things that don't matter... like two wars nobody wants.
Maybe Obama should have an (R) after his name...
Reagans largest deficit was about 242B
Obama 1.47 Trillion
Obama wins!
The most lucid comment you've ever made.
Now take the next step and realize that it isn't just Obama that is like that, but the whole of the Democratic and Republican leadership (and a good deal of both parties), and we'll really be breaking new ground.
Hah, narcissist Oblame is on TV now taking credit for single handedly saving the world er uh jobs.
Listening to O'Bummer now on the tube. He's trying to paint lipstick on this economic recovery pig.
The peeps ain't buying it.
This chart will probably become one of Bob Prechter's favorite props. In fact it shows the top in employment, which will never be seen again, because the future of productivity won't be measured in jobs. The productivity/employment spread will only widen, as automation replaces workers, and efficiency relieves new demand. Like Reagan however, lless is going to be more, more of things, which are smaller and make us more efficient, like smart phones instead of Hummers.
Then of course the world population will peak sometime this century, possible helped along by a pandemic, famine, or war. What's a billion more or less, to return us to the world population in 1983, and restore climate, economic and social balance.
BP's target on the DOW is 1000, or perhaps 400, and that difference is large in terms of where we revert to on the economic time line, 1975, or 1965? Once the politicians discover they can correct the system by turning the dial on the wayback machine, they may actually press the deflationary button even harder.
Bernanke is of course the hapless victim in all this, forced to drive the economy over a cliff to make it work.
Source: St. Louis Branch of the Den Of Thieves
Best laugh I've had in a couple of days.
There are certainly a lot of details like that to take into consideration.I read and understand the entire article and I really enjoyed it to be honest.
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