This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
EMU Collapse Update: Greek Aid To Be Approved By End Of Next Week, Parliament Approval Still To Be Needed
Goldman scrambling to prevent Humpty Ponzi from falling of the well. The latest update from GS' Dirk Schumacher.
German finance minister Schäuble , ECB president Trichet and IMF head Strauss-Kahn just ended their press conference in Berlin. Trichet and Strauss-Kahn met earlier today with parliamentary leaders to brief them on the Greek help package.
Finance minister Schäuble said that the end of negotiations between IMF and Greek government could be reached by the end of this week.
Once that agreement is reached the German government will introduce a law on the Greek help package into the Bundestag. Parliament approval (including the second chamber of parliament) could be reached by end of next week. A necessary condition for this is that all parties agree on a fast track legislation; judging from the statements made by MPs after the meeting ECB president Trichet and IMF head Strauss-Kahn were able to convince everybody on the need to act quickly.
Schäuble also stressed that the market reaction over the last couple of days showed that the tensions are spreading beyond Greece and that the stability of the whole Euro-zone was at risk.
Some participants of the meeting were cited afterwards that Strauss-Kahn said that the Greek help package could be €100-120 billion and the floor leader of the Green party Trittin said that the German share could be up to €25 billion. When asked during the press conference Strauss-Kahn denied to comment and said that nobody would know at this time how much money was needed.
There will be another press conference by chancellor Merkel at 3:45 London time. But it is already clear that we have moved significantly closer to an approval of the financial help package. The market reaction over the last couple of days should have made clear to German politicians what is at stake. The still open question is how specific the draft law is going to be with respect to an extended help program (one that goes beyond the 30 billion already agreed for this year). Judging from the press conference the German government does not want to be too specific at this point.
»
- 4876 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Oh here we go again, another meeting to decide on another meeting...
No wonder you're banging your head.
http://www.mrchuckles.net/i/b2/dilbert-meeting.gif
the important thing to remember is this - the $100 in S&P earnings every dope on the planet thinks is a done deal totally incorporates the reduced consumption required by the terms of these bailouts.
Will mean MORE steel consumption (no, it wont), MORE retail spending (nope, less of that too), MORE home buying (not even close) -- and then, once the spending has been cut, the taxes go up!
So yeah, this will be good for equities - this is no different than bailing out Fannie, Freddie, Bear, Countrywide, WaMu, and everyone else -- that was a HUGE positive for stocks if i remember right (nope, actually was the forefront of the biggest header any of us have ever seen)
Oh and don't forget the big rise in the price of oil..... will have an effect on ...
everything!
One big game of chicken. Unfortunately for them, this time it's painfully obvious that most of the western world is bankrupt.
Bankrupt? Hardly. There are still plenty of checks in Tim's checkbook.
Not exactly heartwarming that at this late date and hour they still don't know how big the package has to be. In other words, even after all the EuroStat work and everything else, noone really knows how deep this hole in the ground really is. LOL.
Not a question of a hole to be filled. the problem is that these bailouts actually represent yearly recurring subsidies. lend country X the money and it will all be spent in a year's time and nothing else will have changed.
When countries decide to live within their means, and only then, will any sound recovery have a chnace to begin.
This is the reason why the market is not tanking and won't tank. As long as they continue to bail out (think Fed 3/09) the EU, US markets will continue upward.
Bail out or say they are going to bail out?
Harry people junk you not for the absolute idiocy or your commentary (which is painful), but because you provide no specifity.
Why is bailing out failed countries good? Why is 0% interest rates good? We have just come through the worst period of 10 year equity returns in history, we are pursuing the EXACT SAME policies that got us that 10 year record, and yet muppets like you jump up and like trained seals?
Respectfully, I think you're just feeding the Troll.
Exactly... It’s just like the stupidity of states issuing debt to fill pension gaps. At the end of the day, what have you really accomplished? Re-classifying your obligation?
So Harry, when will we see the Dow at Infinity+1?
Before responding to the virtually ubiquitous ZH poster "HarryWanger", please be aware of just whom and what you are dealing with in this person:
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/AAPL-apple-gm-psycho...
His real name is James Kostorhyz, and he is here posing as a troll in dishonesty and in disregard for the fundamental purposes of this forum. He is NOT posting here in good faith, but is purposely antagonizing those with independent, anti-establishment views and opinions for his own selfish and cynical purposes, as part of a study on "the psychology of permabears".
He believes that anyone who opposes the current widespread fraud, corruption and rampant lies within our societies and governments are "utopian" and unrealistic, pollyannish dreamers.
And for those ZeroHedgers who are advocates of sound money backed by gold, this bankster shill is already out there with one of the most disingenuous, dishonest pieces of pro-establishment propaganda on the topic, expounding on how such financial integrity is "impossible", and merely "the rants of an ideological fringe":
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/The-Gold-Standard-Solid-as-minyanville-285...
Please do NOT respond to this reprehensible troll, here or anywhere else on ZeroHedge. He is NOT here in good faith, and should be shunned!
Don't do it you krauts!!!
we try to convince her not to do it , Ami ;)
+100
Kaplan in the NYT had the right call last weekend - especially with Turkey essentially telling the US and Israel to pound sand for the most part
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/25/opinion/25kaplan.html
How much ouzo can you buy for $120 Billion? Gonna be a hell of a party...
Where is Neel Kashkari and his napkin? We can call it the Troubled Aegean Relief Program.
This time they really mean it. Just wait until next week and everything will be fine. I'm sure the German gov't has seen the light and will now sacrifice election victory at the feet of the bankers.
The German govt is a bunch of traitors just like yours.
They aren t really worried as they get reelected. If not these ones, then the other ones. Who cares? Some sheeple?
Sorry Harry,
S&P downgrade of Ireland and UK still to come...and just wait for it, how far off is the downgrade of Japan and then finally US?
The handwriting is on the wall and although TPTB want to extend and hope...the math is too rudimentary to continue to pretend.
Strangely, this wonderful 'News' does not appear to have moved the markets much, if at all. Could it be that every time the salvation of Greece is announced, the good news is received with a little less credulity? Could it be that the proposed package remains, in all probability, illegal under the terms of the EU's founding treaties and therefore open to challenge in the German courts? Could it be that the market is now more concerned with Portugal and Spain, having written Greece off already? Tune in next week to find out.
SPX is up 6 points since the bail out was announced. Don't fight the Fed and don't fight the IMF.
I'm not fighting the Fed. The Fed is, in fact, engaged in hand to hand combat with a foe it cannot hope to vanquish; Reality. I'm just watching from the front row and enjoying an entertaining but futile performance by Ben & Co.
And where is that "front row" you speak of?
.....the real fight involves simple mathematics.
Yes, the Fed. The grandmaster of all market moves. So, did they deliberately collapse the market in 2008/09? Of course, if they are/were all powerful, then it must have been a deliberate act, no?
Does this mean we should now disband the fuckers and execute Bernanke in public?
Your input here would be valuable.
Well ... credit where it is due I guess...
Major indices are in the green again as I write this.
epic fail. lulz.
€120 Billion. Money that nobody has. Debtors paying off debtors. How is that supposed to work?
Simple. Take the Citibank balance transfer check you received in the mail and send it to Chase to pay off your balance.
I appear to have mislaid it. Can you send me another one and I'll cancel the first if it turns up.
Full faith and credit, baby.
And what this essentially boils down to is... bankrupt countries borrowing from countries that don't really have the capital to give them.
So... these loans will happen and money printing and even more borrowing will commence. The Euro will take its hits, but other currencies are not as stable as they seem. One day, collectively, market participants will begin to question the faith of their repective underlying currencies-- and it will all unravel.
Sooner for the Euro than the USD and GBP. And perhaps maybe never for the AUD and CAD. Who really knows the timing? But the path to trashing one's currency is pretty clear to see.
The reality is that Greece needs to default and investors in the related equities and debt need to take their haircuts. Will it happen? Likely not, because politically the EU is probably even more skittish than the US. It's certainly a more complex situation.
The worst thing about what were are seeing in Greece is that it will set a precedent for the other PIIGS to follow. If you bailout Greece to the tune of 120 billion Euros, you are pretty much obliged to bailout everyone else-- for much more than you initially expected. And if the IMF doesn't go draconian on these troubled economies... this will all be for essentially nothing.
Debtors paying off debtors...
There is a name for this. It is called "Kiting."
Germany should agree with the bailout, only if the whole Greek political class is replaced.
Good luck with that.
I hope someone is thinking ahead and calculating how much it will cost to bail out another five or six countries. Larger countries than Greece, I might add.
Obviously, lot's of someones making that exact calculation:
892.48 +5.14 +0.58%http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif
Good point. My mining stocks are happy today.
Greece will default, just a matter of time. European banks will be in some sort of trouble. It is really just how big the trouble it will be. As long as it is slow, it will be less painful. The end game is the same.
So to summarize...
The ECB made the decision to help Germany see why they should make a decision soon about making a decision. However, no decisions were made at this time.
Precisely. :-)
+10!
Hey Tyler-
You should post this:
Roubini: "In A Few Days Time, There Might Not Be A Eurozone For Us To Discuss"http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/roubini-%22in-a-few-days-time-there-might-not-be-a-eurozone-for-us-to-discuss%22-475099.html?tickers=%5Eftse,%5Egdaxi,EURUSD=X,udn,uup,%5Edji,%5EGSPC
DB raises S&P year end target to 1375...
they WANT their bonuses... and forget about valuations... what sort of p/e will it be at that level? 35?
What's the problem, can't decide whether to actually turn on the printing presses, or just create the fiats out of thin air digitally.
Why can't anyone in charge just say enough already! This BS has been going on since last year and someone needs to sack-up and let Greece go back to its bankrupt ways before the EU decided to give it a black AMEX card. No one can bail-out the others at risk, especially Italy, which has been a failed state for quite some time and illustrates the lack of wisdom in cramming different cultures and attitudes into one larger state.
Greece sees cut in bonus wages counter productive....
Yeah givvus your money suckers, we don't want no strings..
we will tank the market if you don't so you have no choice
chaos in Germany on May 1. this year. I`ll travel to Hamburg to see the revolt with my own eyes...
I'm from Hamburg, great city-state, but it sure is feeling the direct of effect from the collapse in world trade.
Sooner or later any mention of putting out this fire by bringing in the IMF/SDR's will include a reminder of just what compromises these SDR's [ USD, British Pound, EURO, YEN ]
I don't think I need to add anything else
Where hot Carl when you need him, we could use a paper fiat troll at this point
Cue the bond vigilantes! (I hate how the term "vigilante" has a negative connotation. So not appropriate.)
ok i am throwing this out there as just a thought.....china in an effort to diversify out of the US$$ took on many EUROS..... the ratings agency S&P is nothing more than a proxy for the US gov't and used as a foriegn policy tool. could it be that the speed of the downgrades and the timing is actually an effort in putting pressure on CHINA's euro holdings. I believe china/russia offered greece help, but it was turned down - is this why?? is this all just US efforts to pressure china??
Again, notice the increase of tremors at the Katia volcano in Iceland seen today:
http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/stodvaplott.html
Nothing to see here. Move along.
I was wondering what was going on in that department. Thar she blows?
Greece's problem is really very simple - their cash flow is insufficient to pay for their government transfer payments. Will a bailout help this situation? No, it will make it worse because they will have to pay interest on the bailout loans. The only way Greece pulls out of its flat spin is to lower welfare payments or raise taxes. Absent either or both of those, bailouts should be seen as a net negative rather than a net positive.