End Of Day Recap
Submitted by Nic Lenoir of ICAP
Well, today for once played out like we expected at least. Upon failure of breaking forcefully through 1,070/1,075 early in the session, we did have one of those lightening fast no volume rally. However we were positioned for it following the early morning game plan. Only surprise is almost that we did not go all the way challenge the highs at 1,098. I guess we had to leave a little bit of work for the Asian session.
From the lows this morning we have what looks like and a-b-c so c might not be complete yet. As I type Amex's earnings came out better than expected, so needless to say that will add a little fuel to our fire. I expect this move to be a 5 leg impulse that will top between 1,098 and 1,007, where I will be looking closely at the market structure as I think we could have a good shorting opportunity there.
I re-inserted my Dax chart because it has been a great guide through the last volatile days, and so far the price action is a mirror image of last September, so one would be crazy not to keep it in mind.
Note on the daily chart of the S&P future that the MACD has hardly turned in terms of the second derivative. The good news is we have a lot of divergence, and we look very close to turn though. We would recommend considering using some bullets if we open around the highs tomorrow.
In 10Y Treasury futures we failed to break the support this morning as expected, but the upside was relatively limited, partly also because of the push higher in equities. I would expect we test again 117-20/117-24 in the morning, and we would watch again very closely how the market reacts there. We have enough momentum to break, and maybe make it to the 116-20 support but that seems a bit of stretch, the odds are rather to retrace here up to 118-08/118-24 before anything material happens.
Good luck trading,
Nic
(1 vote)
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on Thu, 10/22/2009 - 15:39
#107292
Robo posted a little late today...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/shanked-then-cranked-another-banner-day-goldman
on Thu, 10/22/2009 - 15:49
#107297
I think after AAPL and AMZN, there is no doubt that the consumer is alive and kicking, and kicking pretty hard. $125 and $150 target will be all the rage now for AMZN, and if you can stomach the 50 times forward multiple that seems compulsory with the stock, they might just hit it, not that I will be playing. I shall be nursing my Amazon wounds instead.
on Thu, 10/22/2009 - 15:49
#107305
It would be helpful if it was noted somehow on the main page where you have the summary and link that this is written by Nic Lenoir and not TD.
Seeing things like "we were positioned for it following the early morning game plan" right under a Tyler Durden can give the impression ZH is running a book.
I know y'all don't, and it would take about 6 brain cells for anyone to determine that if they actually checked...but y'know, lotsa dumasses out there.
on Thu, 10/22/2009 - 16:16
#107344
I just look for Nic Lenoir in the list of tags under the headline.
on Thu, 10/22/2009 - 20:57
#107750
agreed, the attributions to the posts could be made clearer...good user interface and design is not just needed for dummies, it's just plain nice and easy on they eyes and brains
on Thu, 10/22/2009 - 15:49
#107306
A 2% rip on nothing.
on Thu, 10/22/2009 - 15:49
#107307
It seems like they will never allow S&P to drop three consecutive days.
on Thu, 10/22/2009 - 15:56
#107315
Oh this is getting ridiculous... they pumped the SPY robot and then 30 minutes later offloaded them, all the while they distributed Galleon's individual holdings... of course dumb money said "It's going to the moon!" and jumped in with tons of OPM.... my CIO included.
Can't have the masses be upset. God I want this month over.
on Thu, 10/22/2009 - 15:58
#107322
Yeah but look at the earnings. That's what it's all about at the end of the day.
on Thu, 10/22/2009 - 15:59
#107325
You mean the earnings saved by firing their employees which are then translated as "look at the top line beat!"
on Thu, 10/22/2009 - 16:02
#107328
Yeap, but the market is cycnical, it doesn't care how you get there. That's why stocks rally when they announce big jobs cuts.
on Thu, 10/22/2009 - 16:13
#107340
Price wars are the name of the game this Christmas. No way does Amazon make revenues of 9B in the fourth quarter which is at the high end of their forecast.
Walmart is ready to unleash on other retailers.
on Thu, 10/22/2009 - 16:01
#107326
Nic is good but how about Bob Janjuah? Any more of his stuff floating around?
on Thu, 10/22/2009 - 16:06
#107333
You poor battered souls.
today was just fine.
made a lower low, and set a lower high.
a watched pot never mean reverts.
on Thu, 10/22/2009 - 16:46
#107386
Agreed, comfortable enough with that. 1103+ tomorrow and I'm packing up for the month though.
on Thu, 10/22/2009 - 17:08
#107429
very well said 107333!
on Thu, 10/22/2009 - 19:08
#107619
Trading Haiku.
on Thu, 10/22/2009 - 16:08
#107334
Can you just predict a small crash for november so that we can collect on our put options.
on Thu, 10/22/2009 - 16:14
#107343
also
it should be obvious that when a short play is that obvious that some one is gonna squeeze u and squeeze u hard.
a watched pot never mean reverts.
on Thu, 10/22/2009 - 16:26
#107359
modified accounting rules yield bootleg earnings..i cant wait for these POS companies to fail, since they arent banks they will.
on Thu, 10/22/2009 - 16:43
#107380
Lenoir is a CLOWN...