This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
The End Of The End Of The Recession
Zero Hedge, in collaboration with David Rosenberg, Chief Economist & Strategist, Gluskin Sheff + Associates, Inc., is pleased to release the attached analysis "The End Of The End Of The Recession." It is our hope that this piece will provide some badly-needed perspective on "the recession is over" debate, a topic that has become as one-sided as it is wrong-headed. Our purposes is to promote rational, informed discourse on the subject and to this end we enthusiastically solicit reader feedback. Our presentation is licensed "creative commons: attribution" and we hope that our readers will feel free to forward it on or excerpt from it freely, provided attribution is preserved.
»
- 32967 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
not even close to being lost.....anyone who
trades away instrinsically valuable assets (gold)
for something which
is nothing but a medium of exchange (frn) managed
by immoral money changers in a private
banking cartel is way lost and should seek
installation of a clue phone....
gold is the
standard to cleanse the fecal backup introduced
into our economy in 1933.....gold alone is the
source of freedom and its abandonment the
subservience to slavery.....
gold now and always.
"Obama’s Healthcare plan is a wealth redistribution mechanism"
Yes, from insurance companies to humans.
Obama's health care plan is a tax increase, nothing more. We will all pay more, and get less, and the difference will accrue to the government. Its purpose is to support the Treasury market, and that is also the reason for the urgency. That is also one of the major purposes for cap-and-tax. What do you think they talk about at G-20?
Wow, that may be the most nonsensical conspiracy theory I have ever read, and that is a high hurdle!
You don't understand cap and trade at all? It is a new market for Wall Street, another giveaway to big business. Not that complicated.
If you see these measures as primarily anything other than "revenue enhancements", you are the conspiracy theorist, not me.
If the purpose of revenue enhancements is not to support the Treasury market, then what? What is the subject of EVERY meeting between U.S. and China these days?
One need only engage in thinking that extends more than one move into the future. Does no one play chess anymore? Are you suggesting that the government doesn't know it needs revenues?
What conspiracy do you think I am promoting?
Again, do you have any understanding of cap and trade? If the goal is to enhance government revenue, a carbon tax would be better, and is better. Giving credits away and letting Wall Street create a market is a simply that, a giveaway.
As to the other things you bring up? Chess? Government doesn't need revenues? Okay, if you say so!
Again, the one-dimensional thinking. Are you telling me that the bill now before us will be the final product? Are you telling me that the opportunity to raise taxes by auctioning rather than giving away future offsets will be passed up by CONgress? An overt carbon tax would generate too much popular opposition. Incrementalism, see?
"Government doesn't need revenues? Okay, if you say so!"
Can you read?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=acY016BvYo5c
"Geithner Pledges Smaller Deficit as China Talks Start (Update2"
No, I sure never said (or wrote) those things. You should not have to ask, just refer to what is written.
Okay, I believe you, you have no clue what you think or say. Cheers!
Apocalypse Now- Hi Erich- The government needs funds to continue doing what they do, in fact they have many new grandiose plans and think they can spend your money better than you can, but the problem is that tax revenues are dropping 20%+. Companies pass along increased costs (CBO itself said healthcare would increase costs and carbon trading costs would increase the delivered supply chain costs) to the consumer (us) in the form of your final price - it is a de facto tax even if it is not called a tax on the face of it.
Now carbon credits if done right could just be a tariff to even the playing field between the developed and 3rd world countries, but India and China already said they are not going to play along so most likely no strategic benefit just higher prices (a tax). Do you care how they pick your pocket between taxes, interest, gas, & higher consumer prices? - the question you have to ask yourself is if you will have more or less disposable income as a result (disposable income = choices, liberty, & freedom).
there is going to be a great shorting opportunity. As the market rises, the opportunity gets better.
If consumer spending is so important for GDP, how about the income needed to sustain that spending, since credit is not going to be an option for a long time?
The word income is mentioned twice in this presentation, one to claim that "organic-based wage income" is still declining, and the other time to instigate a class warfare position against taxation for the high income brackets (i.e., in favor of the upper income class) and against wealth redistribution (e.g. healthcare reform). So populists, fasten your seat belts.
And class warriors, start shooting, but first state which side are you on. Have fun!
Good points.
Green Shooooooots - new home sales + 384k
This is an incredible deck. ZH you are doing an amazing job. Keep up the stellar work.
Wonderful. Not bad at all at your first shot at a comprehensive cover of events. I can only assume your continuing reports will be more refined and insightful. If you could update this quarterly as a template that would be excellent.
CRE, oil, $, treasuries, and a more in depth view on munis would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks for all you do. The truth will set you free!
Shanky
Wonderful. Not bad at all at your first shot at a comprehensive cover of events. I can only assume your continuing reports will be more refined and insightful. If you could update this quarterly as a template that would be excellent.
CRE, oil, $, treasuries, and a more in depth view on munis would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks for all you do. The truth will set you free!
Shanky
I don't believe the American people are zombies accepting this 'happytalk greenshoot bs' anymore. The story in the NYTimes about people walking away from debt is the tip of the iceberg. People know that their banks are corrupt with the explicit help from their government. They understand both parties are responsible for creating the oligarchy that is today's USA. Once people lose respect for the institutions (think government, banks, courts), you are well on the way to a disintegrating society.
Politicians are aware that there is no respect for them. Obama frantically tries to pass a healthcare reform bill to help calm the crowds. Ben takes his show on the road as the masses begin rumbling for a Fed audit. Banks are sweating because more of the little people are telling them to shove their credit card debt and mortgage debt up their ass. The little guy knows the 'recession is over' talk doesn't jive with the pink slip he just received that week.
I agree with John Talbott's comments in Slate. The people understand completely how corrupt the system is, they just don't know how to organize to fight it. Actually, walking away from their bank debt may be the best way to fight the corrupt system. I suspect people will start withholding taxes too. I think government cronies and banksters are sweating because they know the money orgy is coming to an end and they just don't want it to stop. When people refuse to pay their debts and their taxes, the government has to respond. They can either lock everybody up (highly unlikely) or begin cleaning up the problems.
It was so good until... you blew it:
"Reagan's lesson" was that you could use fake economics ("supply side" fairy tales) to justify more "government by greed"--lowering taxes on rich people.
You miss the point! The rich have manipulated the system from taxes to trading to clubby CEO compensation! AMERICA HAS FALLEN TO GOVERNMENT BY GREED AND MANIPULATION! THE SHARE AND SHARE ALIKE SOCIAL CONTRACT HAS BEEN DESTROYED! When you talk about "Reagan's lessons" you're siding with the bad guys! The libertarian solution at this point is totally heartless. You're still in love with your money.
Come up with a better plan. The rich in America need to give back a little. We need a new social contract. Read Strauss and Howe's The Fourth Turning for starters.
<<>>
Define "a little" since the amounts that I've had confiscated by various government entities and have voluntarily given to non-government entities would rarely be classified as "little".
Apocalypse Now- This is just transparent class warfare. The real truth is that income was the most highly correlated to IQ level before this economic downturn (now it might actually be political influence). This is just a fact and not a value judgment, but people with smarts have generally found a way to get ahead. Where this turns evil is when people use the corporate veil to do things they would not want put on the front page of the newspaper associated with their name - the corporate veil needs to be pierced. A good start would be who owns the FED, and who owns the shareholders of the FED, and who is the majority shareholder of those entities?
As for lumping all rich people together, it is a logic fallacy of parts to the whole. The wealthy provide jobs, and last time I checked roughly 50% of the public were not paying income taxes - this means 50% are being supported by the other half (including a burdened middle class).
When the government infringes on the pursuit of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness through high taxes the rich people will have the means to relocate their capital and production to friendly countries (already happened with manufacturing). When everyone is poor then who will support the other 50%, because nobody will have the incentive to work 80 hours a week or go to school for 8 years if the reward will be higher taxes. The system has to be fair for all based on principles.
Nothing is free, we can't even kick the can down the road and claim our children or grandchildren will pay for it, since our foreign funding credit cards are maxed out. This means that you are just robbing from Peter to pay Paul in the present. The money's gone, the only way to get more in the short term is more taxes, but they need to focus on principles that stimulate JOB CREATION. It's the economy stupid, and the economy is JOBS.
Each corporation acted in its own self-interest to increase profit by off-shoring and shifting manufacturing to lower cost countries - the result is that in aggregate we exported many jobs, increased corporate profit margins in the short term, but shot ourselves in the foot since 70% of the economy was consumer spending driven (the government could have made policies that protected its own consumer base - who can buy when they don't have a job and their credit is shut off). This is greed, evil, and ultimately moronic.
Don't let the powers confuse you regarding who the guilty are. 1. Bankers & corporate lobbyists (names?) in what amounts to "kickback" schemes 2. Government & corporate individuals (names?) acting in their own self interest instead of their constituents or other stakeholders 3. Americans who do not organize in the face of extreme organization at the top capstone of this pyramid scheme 4. Voters who vote in Santa Claus and others that tell them what they want to hear even though they know it's not true at a gut level - like it's not your fault it's the rich people and we are going to tax them more. 5. An entitlement mentality that is corrupting the self sufficient mentality that develops character from hard work. Everything we may want or need is not necessarily a right - since almost nothing material is free, someone has to work for it, and taking from them to give to you is actually infringing on their rights.
I'm pretty much a believer in the double-dip theory of this recession. After Xmas, when the giddiness of the holiday disappears, there will be more layoffs, companies will find out that they over-produced for the season, banks will still be lending less (see today's WSJ piece on 2Q), etc, etc, etc. Back down the rabbit hole we go. Hope and change we can believe in will turn to despair and cynicism about US economic policies.
Still, I'd give this presentation maybe a B overall. Here's how I'd score it:
Scope/inclusiveness: A (maybe a bit more on the Fed's special programs)
Depth/research: B (accumulates much info not routinely reported by the MSM; I suspect a strong Rosenberg hand here)
Balance: C- (OK, you need to present & explain some of the "green shoots" and how they balance out (NOT!) the bad economic news/prospects).
It is useful to have this broad look at the US economy all pulled together in one place. It is very hard to pull all this pieces together, and I appreciate you doing so.
double dip? has there been a rise from the first?
Agree with #15890. Reagan was the frontman for the corpocracy that sold the people the notion that it was great to be American and anybody could be rich. His 'morning in America' schlock was the 80's equivalent of the green shoots. The Reagan era was the beginning of the destruction of unions (the one place where working people had a say in the corporation), the flood of illegal immigrants who helped to push down wages and working conditions for all Americans and the 'greed is good' mentality on Wall Street. Reagan ushered in the beginnings of this mess.
Awesome! Great easy read summary
Thanks ZH and Rosie
SEC, CFTC Asked to Investigate Goldman Sachs' Special Privileges Ahead of Cap-and-Trade
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=prnw.20090727.DC52105&show_artic...
http://greenhellblog.files.wordpress.com/2009/07/seccftc-july-24-2009.pdf
Get those bastards!
what will the effects of state Government spending reductions be on the economy?
what will the increase in Fed government taxes have on the economy?
Don't worry about who gets taxed we will all pay for Washingtons waste one way or another.
great work. reinforces what i have been telling all my clients for the past year.
70 is the 100.
businesses will operate at 70% of capacity, 70% of prior gross margins, and 70% of historical average selling prices.
gs, jpm, et al excepted.
any that can survive in that environment, will emerge as behemoths once/if this ever ends. those that can't....
well you know the drill...
sorry about that. should have previewed first. meant to say 70 is the new 100.
cheers.
Very nice work TD. I agree the trend in housing is higher occupants per household as the jobless can't afford their own place. Demographics may play a big role as retirees look to downsize housing from McMansions to something with a smaller cost overhead (taxes, heating, maintenance etc..) We may see the sheeple start to pour into stocks based on the last few months market performance but it will be at their peril. I don't know where the new jobs will come from.
The story most in need of telling - would be about the overweight, cumbersome behemoth which resides in DC.
The real dragon resides 230 miles south of Wall Street.
Great writeup, I am still reading through it and enjoying.
Page 47 - "Wells Frago" could use a fix.
I enjoyed this report, but what does it mean GOING FORWARD? How many more years of slow to no growth are we looking at with high unemployment etc?
Will we retest the March lows etc?
This is all fine and dandy, but tell me the month and year unemployment for those with a Bachelors degree or higher reaches 40%. That's the only statistic that matters, because that's the Revolution Statistic.
The quiet revolution is underway: walking away from debt and tax obligations. Why pay when bankers have a free pass?
Not a little irony in MCC, aka Chest, intro a segment on HFT aka the moronic bloggers. CNBC is a joke
Nothing about the deterioration of the supply chain. Unless you view these statistics through that lens, they are meaningless.
Why don't you put a date on this document somewhere? Stupid.
...
oh that would make a material difference....
....if the lack
of publication date makes it unusable it's your
loss....given the tenor of your comment there
is absolutely no additional information available
which would appeal to your intellect.....
Any executive summary, conclusions, and recommendations would help.
You must be a banker.
sounds more like an mba candidate....precisely
the types who created the disaster...
Zing!
I hope everyone here has at least read Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
jim rogers is talking about a black swan where the market goes to astronomical numbers backed by NOTHING...
It's like buying a Ferrari....if you have to ask how much you probably shouldn't be looking at it.
Tyler can you please tell me how to think as well....
i give this a solid A.....i would give an A+ when population and inflation adjustments are made to certain time data.....however, this is was excellent information.
How can the "Consumer" be 70% of Gross Domestic Product? Consumption and Production are not the same thing. That they are somehow convoluted in a government statistic shows the inherant unreliablity of the statistic.
And since according to Keynesians, the "consumer" is the key to the economy, I wish someone would tell me how to get a job as a "consumer." It has to be easier than be a "producer." And certainly more respected by the government and main stream economists.
Dude, with no date on your document it becomes completely unusable.
i hope that was sarcasm
The intro paragraph to the post by the author states that it is being released on Sunday July 26.
That would be the day that the document is dated for purposes of public consumption.
I hope this helps.
The recession is over, let the depression begin!
..and then tune into Marla Djing to cure the depression...
Well played sir.
This is excellent to review where we are now in light of all of the market cheerleaders and well-wishers attempting to pain the world with a green tint.
To those with angry responses, you may be in denial because hope is all that is left, you may be angry that you have been lied to by the MSM, or you may lack the ability to divorce emotion from reason. Or you may be part of the establishment government, media, investment/corporate community, or a bank that is attempting to influence public opinion to maintain the status quo social order for as long as possible. In your mind, you think he is not helping by telling the truth, and that we just need to improve consumer sentiment to return to normal. The market is not always right, which is why bubbles collapse.
For those asking Tyler to predict the future, perhaps you should get your own crystal balls.
Just the facts, Mam.
Thank you to Tyler for your analysis and magnaninous efforts to compile this information.
David Rosenberg's work is second to none, and he is to be thanked for sharing his data.
Facts are stubborn things !
thanks for putting things in a context. Rosie is always welcome guest in my brain.
This is a true public service. Thank you.
Interesting littany of gloom but,
I'd rather know where the market is going rather than where the economy is going. Market tends to lead the economy, e.g. best performing SPX periods were when unemployment claims were extraordinarily high, like they are now.
Ditractors will claim "but it's so bad this time" etc. etc., just like they did the last time, and the time b/f that.
I'm not angry, and I'm not in denial, just trying to make money.
"Concerns by inflationists that Bernanke’s printing presses will have a
material inflationary impact soon are unfounded"
Phew, emerging markets in their turn will see inflation easing. At least some relatively good news, having high inflation together with high unemployment is really nasty.
Tyler Durden for Congress!
Thank you for the great analysis and presentation
So it begins all over again!!!
Ambac Assurance is also expected to report statutory loss and loss expenses incurred of about $800 million due to a deterioration in its second-lien and Alt-A mortgage-backed securities financial guarantee portfolios.
Steve,
I'm very much in agreement with you on the idea that the current crisis is the result of a Peak Oil shockwave. I have wondered for a while what backstopped the various CDS's that were in effect collateral for the massive credit creation that made the housing boom possible, and the only thing that makes sense to me was oil. The rapid rise you saw in crude oil prices in 2007-08 was a reflection of the system risk stresses in the economy overall, and the increasing need to have something liquid (pardon the pun) available as counters in the CDS swaps (coupled with the fact that oil production couldn't meet that demand). When the housing market started going south, it was enough to spook the markets, oil began its rapid descent, and all of the CDS's were forced to unwind, which just added fuel to the fire. With no counterparty support, losses mounted dramatically, and the bloodbath began.
This is pure supposition, mind you, I don't have any direct connection into the market to confirm it, but it would make a lot of sense if true. I have to wonder if this is also tied into oil prices staying up at $70 even when there's a storage glut on the market ... the price is hardly demand driven.
John Herrmann just said the economy is "coiled" for tremendous growth, so Tyler, you just hush your silly mouth.
Would like some thoughtful responses to the following ideas / questions
1) Institutional money moves the market. B/c of the advent of hedge funds and HF / programmatic money, historical 'patterns' of stocks / market will not apply going forward. (i.e. mutual funds are less important than before. There is no sizable stable investor base anymore.)
2) What is the investment approach in a deflationary environment where interest rates (to the consumer) are near 0?
3) The middle class in the U.S. is dying. Policy changes only adjust the speed of the demise.
4) We really don't make anything of value anymore in this country so we are defacto a service economy. The basis of a service economy is education and job skills. The U.S. has a failing education system so longer-term in a world of global competition, the US with a focus on services is screwed.
i disagree strongly with the very pervasive notion
that the usa doesn't make anything of value
any more or that it needs a large industrial
base....
we could all shovel shit for a living and if it
were a high margin enterprise would still be as
valid as making shit shovels.....
manufacturing has declined for two reasons....
1. we are much smarter about how to manufacture
than we were 50 years ago. so it takes less
effort to be as productive which is a blessing
of capital investment.
just as agriculture has plummetted as a share of
the job market, so has manufacturing....
2. the decapitalization of america has been
violent and this is a matter of concern.....tax,
regulatory, and monetary policy have eviscerated
huge swaths of industrial capability wherein it
is advantageous to manufacture offshore....the
government has sucked huge amounts of money out
of
the productive sector by use of risk free bond
trading....it destroys risk taking and capital
formation.....this aspect of de-industrialization
should be of concern...
our leaders are traitors and have sold america
down the river with the free trade crap....
but a service oriented economy is in general good
because it represents the formation of
intellectual capital which in many ways is more
valuable than widget production and would lead
to trickle down manufacturing
if the america's traitorous leaders hadn't sold
us out to the indians and chinese....
Tyler,
Truly a remarkable and well thought out article. There is no end in sight to what is going to occur on our planet and to this country. For now, the unprecedented amount of money printed and thrown into the system may keep us afloat for a while. "Never in the history of this country has so much printed money been splattered at so many by the incompetent few." We cannot know short term the effects of all this garbage.
This is just an amazing site.
Thank you
A great report. I give it an A. I love Zero Hedge, and Tyler is a hero.
But I'm not a total suck-up sycophant. A material omission is any discussion of real, inflation-adjusted interest rates. See this by Mike Shedlock today:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/07/real-treasury-yields-...
Mish calculates real 10-year treasury rates at 9.92%. If that rate holds up after prices stablize, how does that make things look for U.S. Treasury debt service? If 9.92% is the Treasury's rate, what rate will be charged to businesses and consumers?
Now now. Let me talk to a consumer who agrees with Mish's calculation that CPI is really at -6.2%. Oops, I can't find one. How can I recover the 3 minutes that took me to figure what this guy was talking about?
i am in the john williams camp on cpi so can't
agree with a 9.2% rate based upon cpi....however
when you consider that the economy has been
shrinking at that rate (5-6%), then you could
make a
plausible case that at a macro level, real
interest rates are substantially higher than
nominal....but by no stretch, way, or form do i
argue for artificially low interest rates....those
high rates are needed to recover destroyed and
fleeing capital....we are basically in suck-it-up
mode for the next 10-20 years.
Nice work.
Surprised the presentation didn't include a quote or two from walstreetpro2.
Here is an another time bomb ticking...
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN2445254420090724?rpc=77
What happens when Fannie/Freddie denies to buy mortgages?
CalculatedRisk schools you a little bit, TD... ("some blogger"?... ) ... while also schooling the MSM.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/07/few-comments-on-housing-reports.html
CR wrote: "Not to just pick on the MSM reporting. I was sent (by several readers) a housing analysis yesterday. It was some sort of weird mash up between the excellent David Rosenberg and some blogger. The charts are great, but the analysis is sometimes inaccurate. "
Not to worry. Might seem like a little nitpicking - but accuracy is important for credibility. Regardless... doesn't mean the overall theme wasn't/isn't correct.
Calculated Risk had some comments on discrepancies it saw in the housing section of this presentation.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/07/few-comments-on-housing-report...
(toward the end of the post)
When does violent civil unrest start?
The "research" made comments like this for the NAHB HMI: “Sales outlook is stuck at 26, and anything under 50 is a contraction”. Not correct. The NAHB index is a sentiment indicator and doesn’t indicate contraction. Any number under 50 indicates more builders view sales as poor than good. See this chart - the index moves with new home sales and housing starts. And another example: "Architectural billings Index slipped five points last month to 37.7 - a sign residential construction is just bouncing along bottom". The ABI is primarily for non-residential construction.
It’s a interesting news,i like it.Additionally,wellcome to my website prettyboots.org ,here are so many UGGS On Sale such as:UGG Elsey wedge|UGG Elsey wedge black|UGG Elsey wedge chestnut|UGG Elsey wedge espresso|UGG Langley|UGG Langley black|UGG Langley chestnut|UGG Lo Pro Button|UGG Lo Pro Button black|UGG Lo Pro Button blue|UGG Lo Pro Button cream|UGG Mayfaire|UGG Mayfaire black|UGG Mayfaire chestnut|UGG Mayfaire chocolate|UGG Mayfaire sand|UGG Mayfaire red|UGG Nightfall|UGG Nightfall black|UGG Nightfall chestnut|UGG Nightfall chocolate|UGG Nightfall sand|UGG Sundance II|UGG Sundance II black|UGG Sundance II chestnut|UGG Sundance II chocolate|UGG Sundance II sand|UGG Ultimate Bind|UGG Ultimate Bind black|UGG Ultimate Bind chestnut|UGG Ultimate Bind chocolate|UGG Ultimate Bind sand|UGG Ultra Short|UGG Ultra Short chocolate|UGG Ultra Short sand|UGG Ultra Short black|UGG Ultra Tall|UGG Ultra Tall chestnut|UGG Ultra Tall sand|UGG Ultra Tall balck|UGG Ultra Tall chocolate|UGG Suede|UGG Suede black|UGG Suede chestnut|UGG Suede sand|UGG upside|UGG upside black|UGG upside chestnut|UGG upside mocha|UGG Roxy Tall|UGG Roxy Tall black|UGG Roxy Tall chestnut|UGG Roxy Tall chocolate|UGG Roxy Tall sand|UGG seline|UGG seline black|UGG seline chestnut|UGG Corinth Boots|UGG Liberty|UGG Liberty black|UGG Liberty cigar|UGG Highkoo|UGG Highkoo amber brown|UGG Highkoo espresso|UGG Highkoo grey|UGG Highkoo black|UGG Knightsbridge|UGG Knightsbridge black|UGG Knightsbridge chestnut|UGG Knightsbridge grey|UGG Knightsbridge sand|UGG Knightsbridge chocolate|UGG Adirondack|UGG Adirondack brown|UGG Adirondack chocolate|UGG Suburb Crochet|UGG Suburb Crochet black|UGG Suburb Crochet chestnut|UGG Suburb Crochet chocolate|UGG Suburb Crochet grey|UGG Suburb Crochet white|UGG Kensington|UGG Kensington black|UGG Kensington chestnut|UGG Roseberry|UGG Roseberry black|UGG Roseberry sand|UGG Gaviota|UGG Gaviota black|UGG Gaviota chestnut|UGG Gaviota chocolate|UGG Desoto|UGG Desoto black|UGG Desoto chestnut|UGG Desoto chocolate|UGG Brookfield Tall|UGG Brookfield Tall black|UGG Brookfield Tall chocolate|UGG Gissella|UGG Gissella black|UGG Gissella chestnut|UGG Gissella espresso|UGG Payton|UGG Payton black|UGG Payton chestnut|UGG Payton red|UGG Bailey Button Triplet|UGG Bailey Button Triplet black|UGG Bailey Button Triplet chestnut|UGG Bailey Button Triplet chocolate|UGG Bailey Button Triplet grey|UGG Bailey Button Triplet sand|There are so much style of cheap uggs for sale ,so once you go to my website you will be very surprise.