Endrunning: Catching Up With Europe's Lagging Indicators

Suicide United King(dom)s Are Wild:

• Penalties for amounts outstanding in tax cases to double in the United Kingdom - (Double oh... oh fuck). [the wall street journal]
• Sir David A. King FRS claims world oil reserves overstated by a third.  (Cut OPEC a break would you? Everything was inflated in the 1980s- even the hair). [the telegraph]

The Swiss Trifecta (Frank talk about the Swiss Franc):

• Franc will get a severe multi currency spanking if it doesn't cool it. (Gekko/Hildebrand: "Dilute the son of a bitch.") [schweizerische nationalbank / wall street journal] 
• UBS Client in Malibu gets house arrest for failing to report control of a foreign account. (House arrest? Malibu?  Not the briar patch! Polanski, for the love of god, please, help me!) [reuters] 
• IMF pegs 1.5% growth for 2010.  (Isn't there some Euroland to bail out somewhere?)
• A great deal of insight into institutional psychology lurks in the two videos from the Swiss National Bank:

The National Bank and Money

The National Bank and its Monetary Policy

Outlawing Spanish Bull[shit|fights]:

• Morningstar confident in Spain's long-term Euro participation.  (The quality of life in spain falls, and not just on the plain). [morningstar]
• Spain (or at least Madrid) confident in ability to narrow budget deficit to EU required 3% of GDP.  (No word yet if the use of GAAP-- Greek Accepted Accounting Principles-- will be permitted). [the wall street journal]

French (Window) Dressing:

• French strike disrupts (nothing that wasn't already clawing itself drunk through the gutter with agonizing slowness to start with) transit and schools, among other things. [wall street journal]

Comments

[Cognitive Dissonance]

Nothing I see here of any real concern, other than some temporary instability that will settle out once the hangman's noose is seen swinging on the Gallows Pole.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1kxb1FC3Vg

Hangman, hangman, hold it a little while,
I Think I see my friends coming, Riding a many mile.
Friends, you get some silver?
Did you get a little gold?
What did you bring me, my dear friends? Keep me from the Gallows Pole.
What did you bring me to keep me from the Gallows Pole?

I couldn't get no silver, I couldn't get no gold,
You know that we're too damn poor to keep you from the Gallows Pole.
Hangman, hangman, hold it a little while,
I think I see my brother coming, riding many a mile.
Brother, you get me some silver?
Did you get a little gold?
What did you bring me, my brother, to keep me from the Gallows Pole?

Brother, I brought you some silver, yeah.
I brought a little gold, I brought a little of everything
To keep you from the Gallows Pole.
Yes, I brought you to keep you from the Gallows Pole.

Hangman, hangman, turn your head awhile,
I think I see my sister coming, riding many mile, mile, mile.
Sister, I implore you, take him by the hand,
Take him to some shady bower, save me from the wrath of this man,
Please take him, save me from the wrath of this mad, man.

Hangman, hangman, upon your face a smile,
Tell me that I'm free to ride,
Ride for many mile, mile, mile.

Oh yes, you got a fine sister, She warmed my blood from cold,
She warmed my blood to boiling hot to keep you from the Gallows Pole,
Your brother brought me silver, Your sister warmed my soul,
But now I laugh and pull so hard, see you swinging from the Gallows Pole

But now I laugh and pull so hard, see you swinging from the Gallows Pole
Swingin' on the gallows pole!

Ah-ha-ha
Swingin'
Swingin' on the gallows pole!
See-saw marjory daw
See-saw knock at my door

[Mercury]

Now that Obama's crossed The Rubicon (in oh-so many metaphorical ways), Europe's lagging indicators are our leading indicators.

The Western World is essentially a bunch of video store businesses at this point, managing a rapidly declining business model as best they can.  USA management just walked out of the boardroom and announced the purchase of Blockbuster financed with class A voting shares and lots of debt.  It's being billed as a turnaround play but anyone who has been paying attention knows that we're now a runoff business too. 

[hedgeless_horseman]

True, but it will be a long process.  Remember what Rhett Butler said.  There is more money to be made in the destruction of a country then in the creation of one. 

[Mercury]

A tad disappointing nonetheless, especially if you were considering propagating the species (Europeans have done that math a while ago you'll notice).

Hey Look!

I found an old school project of Timmy Geithner's. If he just substituted "a competent and honest Treasury" for "Zinc-Oxide" he could have a great educational video on his web site too just like a real Swiss banker! 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAJ4XVmI4dc&feature=PlayList&p=22A05275BD...

[Comrade de Chaos]

a) Oh no, yet another push to gun the oil to 120 by mid summer. (waiting for GS hydrocarbons report and then robots will go wild.) And oil @ 120 would make a double dip way too real. 

b) Greek interest in bailout 90; EU interest in bailout 20; IMF interest in bailout 60. So there will be a bailout, but it probably will come late. Since Greece has a little leverage but the fear of the chain reaction, it is all up to the last two. I would say probability of a missed debt payment is around 60%. 

c) Marla, welcome back !!!

[mark456]

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