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Equities Bumping Heads Into The Lead
Submitted by Nic Lenoir
Last night the nikkei failed to make a high close on the year and we
see that S&P futures today failed after barely testing the topside
resistance of the channel. We have long highlighted the strong
divergence in momentum indicators for S&P futures which in theory
is precursor to a 10% correction at least. With Nikkei right on
resistance as well we have a compelling case to play a reversal here,
and would only consider the trade a failure if we have a daily close
above the resistance of the daily channel. We are also almost right at
year-end, and if we remember last year the market did not wait for any
later vacationers to start 2009. Maybe a reversal of low volume end of
year price action is in the cards again, the risk reward certainly is
good to trade the market that way.
Good luck trading,
Nic
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Is this the same reversal that everyone on ZH has predicted since last March or is this a new one?
Yeah, its total crazytown here. All those crazy charts with those terrifying downward lines and arrows, must be very confusing to someone who learned economics from the back of a cereal box.
Also, your mom is calling you to get out of the basement, and off prwoling on Craigslist. Its time for your Fruit Loops.
Now, now. Don't we all hate the MSM because of their distaste for dissenting opinions?
Looks like Iran is about to get hot. Watch oil prices.
National Iranian Armed Resistance Forces (NIRU) declares their existance in Iran - Statement
The coordination center for National Iranian Armed Resistance Forces (NIRU) hereby declares its existence & accuses the current government and the leader of the Islamic Revolution, Mr. Sayyed Ali Khamenei of legal transgressions and high treason of nation and homeland. We, a number of Officers, Soldiers and personnel of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, hereby declare our readiness for rise to the armed defense of our nation against the forces of the criminal, illegitimate, transgressing and occupying current Government of Iran, and hereby inform our brothers and sisters serving with the armed security forces of Iran, invite them to join us, request their support and ask them to provide cover for us in this moral & national act. A special request for support & cooperation goes to our brothers of the Military Police.
http://fto.co.za/news/national-iranian-armed-resistance-forces-niru-decl...
Change a couple of words, and that manifesto could work for the U.S.A. too.
I suspect that this so called manifesto of yours is bullshit. It has obviously been written in English, not Arabic and then translated.
That makes it suspect to me. If this was released by a revolutionary group in Iran, it would be targeted at the population within Iran, and we would be reading a translation.
There are reports on the internet from other sources that ALL the communication cables into IRAN have been cut, ostensibly by ships dragging their anchors across the underwater cables.
We do not have 3rd party confirmation that ANY of these reports (including yours) are factual, yet.
But clearly, your manifesto serves the propaganda that the US military would want to promote if they were going to push any sort aggression against Iran.
And equally clear, your document WAS NOT written in Arabic first & then just translated.
I suspect that this so called manifesto of yours is bullshit. It has obviously been written in English, not Arabic and then translated.
That makes it suspect to me. If this was released by a revolutionary group in Iran, it would be targeted primarily at the population within Iran, and we would be reading a translation.
There are reports on the internet from other sources that ALL the communication cables into Iran have been cut, ostensibly by ships dragging their anchors across the underwater cables.
IF that is so, then how was this desimated to us?
We do not have 3rd party confirmation that ANY of these reports (including yours) are factual, yet.
But clearly, your manifesto serves the propaganda that the US military would want to promote if they were going to push any sort aggression against Iran.
And equally clear, your document WAS NOT written in Arabic first & then just translated.
If the document were Iranian, it would have been written in Farsi, not Arabic. But I agree that it reads like more clumsy psy-ops to support US aggression and seizsure of the Khuzestan oil fields (a target for 12 years now).
Farsi, not Arabic, in Iran.
Iranians are not arabs, why the fuck would it be in arabic?
Uh, that would be Persian not Arabic.
Uh, that would be Persian not Arabic.
Uh, that would be Farsi, not Persian, not Arabic.
Dude- do you have a computer? There's video out every day on what's happening in Iran . Cables cut?
Honey, did you fall and hit your head? Maybe its true, maybe not, but no need to deride the messenger who provided the link.
We use Google to check stuff out on our own. Crazy concept, I know.
Here's a link too.
http://www.analyst-network.com/article.php?art_id=3283
Iran's Internet communications were disrupted in Feb 08, probably a dry run. Where did you read that they have been disrupted again, David? Link? in Persian would be fine.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3588.html
The Spinternet seems to be working,
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/OPINION/12/29/morozov.dicatorships.internet/
more BS
GMAC, U.S. Government Said to Discuss $4 Billion More in Aid
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aP4fyIZ3f.sI&pos=1
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For anyone who is interested in survival blogs pertaining to economic collapse I would highly recommend http://ferfal.blogspot.com/ , this is a very good blog about the Argentina collapse in 2001.
what the fuck just happened?
thanks for that link. some interesting stuff there especially the videos.
http://ferfal.blogspot.com/search/label/videos
Look, it's a game of probabilities. If it breaks out - buy it! Everyone else will be buying. There is 0 sellers in this market. Someone on shadowtrader mentioned today "It's not bulls vs bears, it's pigs vs bears. They just keep eating at the trough and never bother taking profits."
It's just way way overpriced paper at this point.
The pigs can have it.
It looks like a reversal is brewing. But the question is: Will it be any different than all the mini-reversals we had so far (since March 2009), which all turned out to be just short term profit taking? Time will tell!
time123
http://invetrics.com
Rare times?
http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=4257
I thought Eric Sprott's comments on gold and the stock market today were pretty bold. And he's a pretty credible voice on gold, considering how long he's been a gold bull for. I also saw some pretty interesting articles on gold and the gold price posted at Sprott's firm's site: http://www.sprott.com/PreciousMetals.aspx?id=53
Gold and the Euro are faltering in Asia, looks like more downside testing for a few weeks before there is a reasonable chance of another rally.
But if the dollar really takes off from here, all bets are off and gold has probably topped for several years.
Very few of these gold "experts" predicted a $100+ correction.
Funny how most gold fund investors anticipated it and got out right near the highs, just like they did the last time.
If gold does indeed correct in at least a somewhat meaningful way, I'd love to hear the Roubini vs. Rogers. Roubini.
Gold and the Euro are faltering in Asia, looks like more downside testing for a few weeks before there is a reasonable chance of another rally.
But if the dollar really takes off from here, all bets are off and gold has probably topped for several years.
Really--what if equity's crash at the same time?
What if war breaks out in the Me,or anywhere else?
What if the dollar collapses?
What if the Yen or GBP collapses?
What if anything?
And your gonna call a top--that will last for "years"
What if the sun explodes?
What if the planet blows up?
What if my roof falls down on my head while I am sleeping tonight?
What if I develop a rare disease where I constant stink so that no girl will ever talk to me again?
What if I win the lottery?
What if I develop a compulsive addiction to gambling so that I lose all my gold wealth to casinos?
What if I am gay?
What if I am gay an untalented?
Considering all these... I must buy gold.
Robo,
for now the correction in gold is just that; a correction in a bull market.
Getting out of gld makes sense for a correction if someone gets in for the next rally.
For bullion the spread is around 5%.
At least I need a few percent move to call a turning point properly and a 10% correction is no reason to sell bullion.
Moreover, I calculate in Euro and the weaker Euro reduces the size of the correction to 5%.
To me the US$ strength looks more like a short squeeze and no new uptrend.
Parallel with the move up in usdx the yield in ten-year-bonds went up too.
I see no logic to this. What is the basis of this correlation between Euro and gold?
I am Chumbawamba.
Andy,
right when the correction in gold started I saw the move in the euro too and took that for a currency event. Your chart depicts that nicely.
Gold at 850$ and Eu at 1.25$ means 680 Eu/oz.
Up to now gold is still above the support range from the old high at 782. My line in the sand is a few percent below the old high, as long as that line is not crossed the bull is in charge. The same picture appears in Yen; the old high is not broken decisively. Every time the price comes close to that line somebody buys metal.
Should that line be violated I will re-consider my position.
careful there Robo, G-bugs are a wily, snarky group. most, certainly not all but most, don't wanna hear when its time to get out of the pool, let alone learn about how / why its possible to play precious metals lifeguard.
funny: haven't heard many 'gold, bitches' of late since Au (talking to me) turned bitch up at 1227 (GC) and plotted actual trading signals to go short, hard, at 1218 if i recall correctly.
again, a failure to recapture 1143 (GCG10, 18.0x SIH10) by weeks end is not a healthy omen for shiny yellow n the crb ... anyone who still thinks the greenback be dead clearly ain't looking at an actual chart cause this ain't be the time to remain ideologically stalwart in the face of uncle buck's average true range and short term IV since actual trading signals said bottom at 74.34.
fun week upcoming after the 2nd/ 3rd TD (trading day) of 2010 when the A-teams get back in their turrets.
careful there Robo, G-bugs are a wily, snarky group. most, certainly not all but most, don't wanna hear when its time to get out of the pool, let alone learn about how / why its possible to play precious metals lifeguard.
Guess who missed a 10 year bull market and now has the audacity to call the for "sure" this time meltdown--lol--
I hedged off at 1188 possible low target 870--
Fuck you and your--"we dont know when to get out of the pool"
Obviously you wouldn't know a bull--if it rammed its horn up your ass--
just a handful of quick ones and no mas (until at least manana):
1) your handle is jimmyjames, which, while possibly not intentional, is about as heelariously close to jimmy J. as ya can get w/o running an online spam newsletter ala Motley Fool
2) cool pic (see #1)
3a) how did you get your hands on all of our clients' perf sums ? and my own 1099's ?? you must be really good, jimmyjames bond from the MI-5-RS.
3b) guess who is a wee bit peeved that they just lost a bunch of moolah OR simply gave back a buncha profit, since they don't / can't / won't trade OR are simply synaptically clouded with G-bug emotions
4a) guess who can't / won't believe that anyone else could ever, possibly have a clue as to which way the wind might, not will but might, blow tomorrow (see #3 and mark douglas' "trading in the zone")
4b) if you did hedge yourself, then great f'ing job. nice work ! yet, if so, then how in the horrifically mis-quoted / mis-attributed name of williams jennings bryan do you feel such personal responsibility for Gb's everywhere ?
just because we may not speak the same language ... at the end of the day ... you don't need to know your alphabets to recognize a G. or a Gb, for that matter.
Typical shit drivel from someone who didn't know enough to buy at 300--
Trading? no point in me teaching--someone who already "knows all"
What the fuck is with all the virtriole lately? Jesus H. Christ. Everyone just chill already.
I am motherfucking Chumbawamba.
End of the year aggression, Chumba. everyone needs to settle down and get an alcoholic beverage.
Choppy,
I tell people that gold is not a trade. Sure, if you want to play around with GLD and other lame paper instruments and indexes then fine, have fun trading the TA on that. But when you buy physical bullion, you are buying it to hold long term. You buy, and hold. Buy, and hold. This is a long term bull. You know this of course.
There are ongoing supply issues, and I believe they'll only get worse. I'm anticipating Fekete's True Backwardation Moment (wow, what a great punk band name). It probably won't happen very soon, but it's coming, and the bullion you have now is the bullion you'll want to have then.
Let's all just take a deep breath and be more concise with our wording.
I am Chumbalaya.
Da Chumba is right! About the only buy-and-hold is gold. Au is the best insurance and wealth protector.
I also wait to observe if Antal Fekete's observation re gold backwardation will come true, as well as its after-effects. Fekete's True Backwardation Moment would indeed be a great name for a band, that is, if a band understood even a part of what is happening to us....
Does the Gold Confiscation Act of 1933 mean anything to you?
Dude, no one's taking my fucking gold, OK?
I am Chumbawamba.
Here are some interesting points on a possible gold confiscation act of 2010 etc...
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2009/08/confiscation-anatomy-different-view.html
Of course these points can be utterly mistaken views but more info and ideas the better.
Yes, the beginning of the end of freedom in Amerika.
Shutup and post more tits & ass :)
I am Chumbawamba.
Stocks only go up...Government budgets don't matter, consumers or household debt are useless. Your house is back to 2003 values-if your lucky! Oh--you could be unemployed--Interest rates are moving up---its OK--it is historically low---gas prices and other commodities are roaring, oh that's because the economy is roaring to!!!! Everything is just great---buy more stocks and especially treasuries... ugh!!!
I'm being a bit hyperbolic here, but it seems to me that if the market can get this high, it can go to new highs. One is just as absurd as the other.
At what point do you people cease to make directional "bets" on the aggreagte market? It is funny to watch, when ya'll are wrong their is always a scapegoat (Fed, Bernanke, Govt.), when things go your way it is justification of your "thesis".
Funny.
Gold is going to falter as the dollar continues to strengthen vs. the Euro. If Greece and Ireland continue down the path to default this will only promote this trade. The dollar will be seen as the "safe haven." Remember we are not the only (major) country/economy that is printing money at a crazy rate, everyone is doing it, not saying it is correct, just the case. The US GOV is still the biggest meathead on the block.(for now)
Euro down, Gold down, Dollar up for the time being!!!
Your observation is of great interest. I am an Au bull big time. But if I am wrong, I have muchos dolares ($$$) right here in long green. In the safe...
Diversification is a relatively safe bet for 2010. And since 2010 looks like a rough year, it looks like heavy drinking will dull the pain. The pain gets worse, move on to xanax + hydro.....
The next major bear camp is forming around this theme, since their last projections of a gold collapse after a failure to blast through the 1030 level disappointed them.
As always, we shall see, but I'm not betting against gold, not even in the short term. And of course, any short term setbacks would only be excellent buy opportunities, so it's a win-win for golddorks either way.
I am Chumbawamba.
Sure the US$ will be considered as a safe haven. For a very short while.
Just remember this: Greece and Ireland are economic midgets. They will impact the Euro, they will raise the value of the US$, on that we agree.
But what do you think will happen when California or New York goes booom?
Here is a point of comparison (I have posted this before on ZH): Greece GDP = US$ 313 billion (See: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=greece+GDP). California GSP (Gross State Product) = US$ 1.85 Trillion. (See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_California)
Again, think about those numbers long and hard. If California goes bust, the implosion and the consequences for the global economy will make Greece and Ireland look like tiny bumps in a six-lane highway. What happens when other states (New York, Illinois, etc) join California in default? QE has its limits, and they are going to be reached sooner or later.
So: short term dollar up, short term gold down, short term Euro down. Agreed. But what about the long term picture?
+100
more BS
Reading Hillary Rodham's hidden thesis Clinton White House asked Wellesley College to close off accesshttp://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17388372/
Bill Clinton asked his liberal allies in academia to suppress his wife's senior thesis during the time he was president. The (not so) shocking part is that they obliged.
However, the thesis is now easily found online, for example at http://www.gopublius.com/HCT/HillaryClintonThesis.pdf (OCR'd) or http://www.gopublius.com/HCT/HillaryClintonThesis.html (photocopies).
There's nothing particularly interesting about it. H. Clinton wrote it as a 20 or 21 year old student, so it's just juvenalia (i.e., intellectually unformed). It is well written from a technical standpoint. Most young college students are liberal in their thinking and H. Clinton was young in the late 1960's during a peak in Liberal sentiment, so it's unsurprising she wrote a thesis showing clear admiration for a jew communist. What is surprising is that the thesis is fairly restrained. She just seems to be going through the motions, doing what she thought she should be doing as a late 1960's student radical wannabe rather than showing true passion. It's very typical of schoolwork.
Since it's written by a 21 year old, and written decades ago, it's meaningless. At best it shows where her interests were leaning at the time.
Mr. Geithner has repeatedly said " we will do whatever it takes".
If we do get a correction, the zero hedge staff deserves the broken clock award .
I predict a 90 degree day in Michigan sometime in the next months ..
It is a well known phenomenon that bear market rallies often take the form of wedges.What is amazing about the current rally is that after the lower trendline of the wedges in the NDX DJTA and EEM for examples were broken, they then formed abother smaller ascending wedge right after it. the EEM has just broken that second little wedge, and the DJTA is very near to doing so as well. This would be an a very fitting end to this greatest of all bear rallies. I predict it ends within 2 weeks.
"U.S. gross domestic product will increase 2.6 percent next year after contracting 2.5 percent in 2009, according to the median economist forecast in a Bloomberg survey. GDP will expand 3.5 percent next year, the most since 2004, as spending increases and companies boost investment, said London-based Barclays Plc’s Dean Maki, the most-accurate forecaster."
What does Maki know that Zerohedge does not?
I'll be brief.
ANYONE, and I mean ANYONE, (sorry Robo, that includes you) who posts nonsense about gold topping for years is CLUELESS about this crisis is all about.
And I mean CLUELESS.
Good evening. Wow, on the front top of the page of the www.huffingtonpost.com has a radical honest proposal to pull all $ out of the 'too big to fail' banks that are screwing us and not lending.
This is catching fire rapidly among the readership. Which is the #1 read newsite now. Aside from google news and yahoo news of course.
mrjumbomortgage
http://thegreatloanblog.blogspot.com
Spamtastic!
The price of gold goes up and down but still weights the same. I checked again yesterday.
The really large new Treasury requirements start in March. Market will likely trade sideways until the Spring. If Treasury can issue the required $4 Trillion of new debt this year and China continues to issue about $1 trillion of new debt without higher rates, equites will likely move to new highs. Its all about increasing debt year over year in my opinion.
Key global equity index - daily charts continue to warn of distribution but their weekly charts remain bullish.
The bear market rally from March 2009 will not be over until weekly charts give a sell signal.
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0