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Equities Go Full Retard As Rates Run For Cover
To see the prevailing schizophrenia gripping the two different sets of mindsets in the market right now, look no further than than the surging divergence between equity vol and implied correlation (VIX, JCJ) and credit vol (via swaptions: USSV011). The chart below shows that even as equity traders are going full retard into QE2, and expecting the Fed's Brian Sack to expense their purchases of such staples as hookers, booze and heroin next, rate guys are running for cove (guess what, the fact that going forward Americans will not pay mortgages again, likely for many months if not years, is not good news).
And an even more stunning demonstration of the full retardation of our once proud equity trader class, is the record surge in implied correlation between Jan 2011 and Jan 2012. Translation: the world is fine through the New Year, then it is all going to hell.
H/t Tim Backshall of Credit Derivatives Research
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best headline ever
Do I have to give back the money I made being long because it's fashionable to be bearish?
Nope, just raise a glass to me, willya? Been a rough week. Reformulating my entire trade plan, honestly. Long term, sure - it will get smacked eventually. Just not in time for anything expiring in October to be worth a toss it seems.
"Do I have to give back the money I made being long because it's fashionable to be bearish?"
;-)...I'm sayin no...I cashed out today too.
I would say in general no ZHer is shocked to see the DOW over 11K. More like surprised it took this long. There is trading, and then there is reality, and the reality of where we are is of no utility in judging whether to trade. Tepper said it very well the other week: stocks will go up, or stocks will go up. He left out the part about what happens after that.
I don't know if we can say retard can we?
My momma would wash my mouth out if she were alive. But that being said very apt TD
The only one going full-retard is me, thinking that there ever would be a correction. Come take my premium you POMO bastards. I'm done.
There can't be a correction now. Shorts are done in this game. Fed will bring yields to negative forcing bond folks into other assets like equities. Losers, shorts.
Fed will cause superduperinflation bringing equities higher and higher. Losers, shorts.
So there's really no way you can win in this on the short side unless the computer programmers decide they want to make money on the short side. But why would they when it's soooo easy for them with the Fed pumping them up long?
Fed will cause superduperinflation bringing equities higher and higher. Losers, shorts.
Yes, that is quickly becoming a very common line of thinking these days. That makes me very happy.
Why are they waiting until after the election to make the QE2 annoucement?
Because there will be no Placebo 2. As soon as the British elections were over they started their austerity program, and the same thing will happen here. So everyone can stop dry humping eachother's legs in the excitement over QE2.
Because there aint gonna be one. Major headfake is on da cards !!
yeah, and all the speculators in gold is gonna get burned. if you've made a lot of
money in gold, sell, then after it goes down, to say 1200, or below, like 1100;
buy again. you get more gold for the long term.
Look at the big picture over 9 months, we are still in a trading range 1170-1000. Until we bust out of that range, I'll play the short side.
How high do you think we go Harry? Can longs win if we go full on Weimar Republic?
Who knows how high we can go? Remember, we're only up 3% on the year so it's not like we're sky high right now. Yes, September was up over 11% but May was down 12%. It balances out.
Come on Harry, the Dow is up nearly 15% from its lows this year. You're being very subjective in your choice of figures.
DavidC
... on nothing but bad news. Ben and Timmy are gonna have to stop pulling on eachother's wankers pretty soon. There's just no payoff any more.
Oh please David, you're the one conveniently measuring growth off the lows of the year. Who is being subjective here?
Hardly.
All I was doing was taking another point to show the subjectivity of Harry's point. I could equally as well have stated that we're 2.5% off the year's highs for the Dow, 69% up from the lows of March 2009 (gosh, haven't we done well) etc etc.
If you want my subjective viewpoint (errm, and even if you don't, as I'm writing it it's here to see) I am so bearish that, as far as I'm concerned, the higher the market goes the further it will have to fall. Because I want it to? No, but because NOTHING has been done to address the problems of the original crisis.
DavidC
Harry, what about the rising costs of production inputs? How is that going to make for an awesome consumer based economy?
Not saying it will "make for an awesome consumer based economy". Remember, the market and the economy are two very separate things.
Can't have earnings good earnings in the bubbles of the century (AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, PCLN) without consumers..
AAPL is not a bubble stock. I recall everyone saying back in March '09 that Apple would struggle because no one had money to buy their gadgets. Well that was pretty far from what actually happened. Record sales, Q after Q.
Consumers have been and continue to show up to buy Apple iStuff, regardless of the economy.
It's a dangerous to stand on a weak floor.
That is not PC. Equities did not go full retard. They went full 'special'
Full "special" is no longer PC either; now it would be full "differently abled."
Call me old fashioned but always liked "spastic"...it has a great ring too it
My money's on mongoloid, if anyone's interested... ;-)
You think this is something, just wait until the Fed actually announces QE2. Market will act like it never saw it coming and skyrocket to even higher highs.
BTW: kind of funny that Cramer's smug mug is right next to this article.
Disagreed, Q/E2 will never materialize, its all hype for hypes sake and has already been 'priced in' #x fill in the blank Q/E has been priced in for months, FED holds a pair of 2's in the highest stakes game ever and is bluffing.
Believe me, there will definitely be a QE2. Only question is how big it will be. So market expects 500B - 750B. If it's larger than that, equities will skyrocket acting as if they had no idea QE2 would be over a trillion.
Nah, it'll be $100bn/monthly overt monetization (with an additional amount of covert alongside).
And this will go on until the entire world realizes the US prints money to cover the defict, and we all wake up one morning and half of our assets are gone.
You'd have to be crazy to buy US debt.
Sorry Harry, once again I disagree. If the Feds can get away with NOT having to do another QE they will. Why would they continue to inflate they currency over and above what they have to?
UNLESS they really are intent on clearing all the US debt in which case the US is finished.
DavidC
The fact that we are having QE2 means that QE1 did nothing for the economy.
The fact that we are having QE2 means that QE1 did nothing for the economy.
I agree 100% but that doesn't translate into the market tanking. On the contrary, traders are drooling over the prospect of QE2. In their minds, they look at what QE1 did for the market and they, for whatever reasons, think that will happen again.
I agree, but things change when you least expect them. If it were that easy, everyone would be rich.
I don't believe you , you dork.
Aw, cut them some slack. That's what we're all looking for, isn't it?
Should the FED do QE2 I will dump every single Yankee Peso that I own, because that's all it'll be worth a year from now.
Guess you didn't get my memo, use:
http://www.mvps.org/winhelp2002/hosts2.htm
and most ads won't even get loaded by your browser.
Instead of buying USD, why don't the world's central banks start selling their Treasuries and hold USD cash? This would drive up rates, and perhaps increase the value of the USD?
Jobs report was weaker than I expected, but stocks reacted exactly as I expected. RISK TRADE IS ON!
Agreed. The only way the market would have reacted to the downside would have been an awful report with the rate back up to 10%. Other than that, you've guaranteed the Fed pump. Equities sky.
.5% is now the sky...the bar is getting kind of low.
Now that US rates keep trending Japanese, the major trend in stocks is also Japanese.
Doesn't it make you a little frigid when gold is rising in parallel to stocks? A warning sign to me...
If the stock market pump is on as a result of the devaluing/inflation of the US Dollar, then why aren't the stock markets of other currencies that are GAINING against the dollar CRASHING?!
Given the cynicism of the US (Geithner and Bernanke) in accusing other countries of manipulating their currencies, when other countries ALSO want their currencies to fall in value, I could quite see some of them buying dollars to push up the value.
The US (and, please, I differentiate here between US individuals and the US Government et al) is acting like a petulant, spoilt teenager that will not acknowledge its previous actions and will do anything, ANYTHING, to avoid taking the responsibility for what it has down to itself.
DavidC
Kirk Lazarus: Check it out. Dustin Hoffman, Rain Man - looks retarded, acts retarded, not retarded. Counted toothpicks, cheated cars, autistic, sho', not retarded. You got Tom Hanks, Forrest Gump - slow yes, retarded maybe, but he charmed the pants off Nixon and won a ping pong competition, that ain't retarded. Peter Sellers, Being There - infatile yes, retarded no. You went full retard, man... Never go full retard. You don't buy that? Ask Sean Penn, 2001, I Am Sam - went full retard, went home empty handed.
hhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SgHITc1OL-c
oh sorry, but you have two hh's, one to many, for link
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SgHITc1OL-c
Gracias.
good, i loved Rainman. loved dustin in that role. that was the very best movie i thought. it showed me a lot, i didn't know about autism, plus it was taken place in Cincinnati o HI o .
i could really relate, the house they grew up in reminded me of my home and neighborhood. tom cruise i thought was good, but his foreign bitch was G rrrrrr EAT.
But Hoffman didnt go full-retard in Rainman, just slight disabled, and was even good at counting cards. Now look at the other actors who went full retard, never came back from it. Sean Penn, full retard, never recovered.
Don't underestimate the power of full retard!
How is this headline supposed to make me feel?(drools down chin)
These bells are ma ladies!
Not good news? I'm confused (again). Is not the non-payment of "faulty" mortgages exactly the gospel you have been advocating, TD?
Maybe TD the blogger is a schizo delusion like TD the movie character? This multiple personality/author stuff is hard to keep straight when I am sober.
Or are you just exasperated by the markets reaction to the news? What did you expect?
oh, i like articles like this, written by a tyler durden.
This has a very scary dislocation look to it. It was almost like this in , i believe, aug 2007 when the mkt snapped and every trade was 200 points apart. Swinging wildly on the bid and ask for hours.
Tough to be bearish when retail is leading.
And no wonder.
Gasoline prices have been ratcheting lower all year here in Los Angeles.
And now, deadbeats don't have to make a mortgage payment.
Not to mention more estimates for AAPL to $400.00 plus. Soon to be the biggest company on the planet going higher and higher. Tough to beat that.
I remember similar analysts making estimates for oil at $200+ a couple of years ago.
How'd that work out again?
Full retard mode, ACTIVATE!! DERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!
Have you ever herped so hard, that you derped?
Have you ever herped so hard, that you derped?
Robo and Harry, are you guys long right now?
I'm starting to feel like I'm going to miss out Melt-Up 2, no matter how ridiculous I think it is on fundamentals.
Just what theyre begging you to think, in my opinion. Desperate to get someone to play their full retard game, and convince everyone you aint seen nothin yet. Right before the unforeseen event which wipes everyone out. 1st rule of gambling in a rigged casino- Look around the table, if you cant see who the sucker is, then its you.
Good point.
fuck yeah. dis a play.
Long precious metals. Lots of them for quite a while. I dip in and out on various stocks - most recently AAPL - but am not much in the equity market other than quick trades.
"Long precious metals. Lots of them for quite a while."
Me too. But sat out roughly half of the 2009 equity melt up. In a world of full retards, the wise man may be the fool.
You didn't miss any 2009 equity "melt up" if you were long PMs. You probably beat most of the indices
I was wondering why I had not heard anybody mention that even though in the long run the foreclosure scandal means banks will recover less, in the short run, people will not have to pay either mortgages or rents and so they will party like its 1999. Wasnt that one of the dynamics that kept things strong leading up to April highs?
While I realize you seem to think LA is the center of the universe:
Gas -- up .038 since last week, up .26 since last year
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/info_glance/petroleum.html
http://www.gallup.com/poll/112723/Gallup-Daily-US-Consumer-Spending.aspx
(Retail spending truly, truly sucks; to save you linking to the above.)
And oil is obv breaking out on the upside.
So the fundamental trends are not your friend if you love retailers.
Chart: ES and ZB
Not that retarded, really.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/10/es-zb_08.html
The whole situation gets more wacky with each passing day. Seriously, who would have thought we would be in a situation where the market is ramping / cheering a crappy NFP report because it increases the chance of QE 2?
Eventually the equites market will full on crash. Can anyone show me a chart of a never ending parabolic blowoff.....that never ends? Besides gold.
This is the same set up as 2007, except instead of killing the dollar with bailouts it's now full on debt monetization time.
I just don't see how this ends well for equities. Might take some time to realize, but I just don't see it ending well.
The fed will regret killing the short positions, which once acted as a natural stopper to crashes.
"Can anyone show me a chart of a never ending parabolic blowoff.....that never ends?"
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?s[1][id]=FYONET
That is truly stunning. Though if it were done as log i think it would be less impressive. Also as those are nominal outlays, it also probably does not present the true picture. But they asked and you delivered. Well done.
Reminds me of the crowd cheering as the people float up before they explode in Logan's Run.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSnLU9nyFSA
Keep cheering Non Farm Pay recipients. Your time will come.
Haha, "Quantitative Carousel". When the dollar sign in your palm starts flashing, uh oh!
AAPL
Chart: DX
The Dollar is not dead.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/10/dx.html
I don't know. It's shambling about with no apparent intelligence just like all the other fiat currencies.
An artists rendering of current world FX markets: http://images1.fanpop.com/images/image_uploads/dawn-of-the-dead-dawn-of-...
Chart: EUR/USD
Paris, anyone?
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/10/eurusd_526.html
The stakes are getting higher, the distortions bigger, the chance for unexpected side-effects of policy decisions much, much higher.
There is no real plan for the economy. Just following an endless cycle of liquidity injections. Already there's evidence that the economy is totally addicted as business activity grinds to stall speed the minute liquidity dries up. And each time the Fed is pressured to inject more smack at faster and faster intervals.
Today is a clear demarcation in the evolution of the distortions. The data is crystal clear: disimprovement in the underlying economy (employment and wage deflation) combined with inflationary forces in cost inputs for businesses and individuals (inflation). We're going BI! It's BI_flation, bitchez!
It's stagflation.
A fast-motion repeat of 2008.
Oil won't get anywhere near $147/bl before the global economy crashes again.
$100/bl should do the trick this time.
That is a point almost no one else has mentioned. The FED is pumping up the market , but it is a joke, the dollar is down 13% in value over the past two months, and when gas hits $4 / gallon again, old Bennie and Timmeah are going to witness the economy come to a screaching halt just like in 2008. Yeah , what a plan .
The market always has a plan: to inflict the most harm on the most people and pay the banksters. Who is buying dollars and who is buying equities? The public or banksters? There are two sides to every trade, and most speculators lose money..........
Funny, all I see are flashing bid/ask lights, but no volume.
Ok, down goes the platform....
Think you may have a scale problem in representing that vol quote as large, since that's the 1x1 ATM lognormal vol. The same vol quoted normal is about 48bps, on a forward of 66 or so. Not small, exactly, but if your 3-sigma worst case is a 1Y of 200bps, it's hardly the end of the world.
Those who wait for stocks to tumble are going to be disappointed. As many have pointed out, including some "bank insiders", the stock market has no more meaning given that the FED will do anything in its power to avoid deflation, even a small one. Wait for the death of the dollar and not the death of the Dow. Do you seriously think Banana Ben will accept the downfall of the Ponzi? This is foolish.
OH, I see, although the market/economy is totaly destroyed, the illusion of 'all is well' that only fools the fully retarded will be continued, forever?? Good luck with that. What is pumped, must be dumped, and they have a huge one planned for the near future.
And it will have to be based upon some geo-political event. Something exogenous.
In the short term, the risk-on people might be right. Clearly we've gone from 10k to 11k pretty quickly.
And no, the Fed won't let things go willingly. They will blow past $90 oil, soft commodities limit up day after day, and even food riots in other countries. But at some point, sometime in the future, with the stock market completely detached from any form of reality, they will hit the panic button. I'm not waiting around for that, but I am preparing for the other side. This will not end well.
The roulette wheel spins faster and faster until it achieves lift off and starts lopping off heads -- no panic button needed!
Positive sentiment is at an extreme. QE2 = failed bond auctions. FED has already pissed off all the buyers of treasuries........ do you really think they can stretch this confidence game any further?
Which leads to the next thought experiment: is this the point - tip over the system so IMF / BIS / UN bail it all out, taking ownership of governments?
Long Stocks is a losing game: equities are denominated in increasingly worthless dollars. When you cash in those "winning bets" you'll find out that a loaf of bread is $90, a quart of milk is $125 and your bank charges $500 a month for a checking account. Gold will be the only reliable protector of wealth smoothing out the distortions and world turbulence ahead.
Yes, but a hell of a lot better than being short. Then you'd get killed twice.
No argument there. But losing is losing. Like keeping cash on hand with 20% inflation rate.
I don't know who junked you, but you're spot on. You'd have to be crazy to short equities in these times. Put options, if you really have to, but they're bloody pricey at the moment.
Well it is looking like there is going to 477 billion worth of sales this christmas. Socks and underwear are going to be damn expensive.
http://www.the-lingerie-post.com/2010/10/victorias-secrets-2010-diamond-...
One under every tree!
LOL That's got maybe 20k worth of diamonds on it. Diamonds are not rare.
Who wants the bra? That's just gift-wrapping -- it's the woman that has value here!
"guess what, the fact that going forward Americans will not pay mortgages again, likely for many months if not years, is not good news"
Really though... It's almost back door QE/Stimulus.
Anyone not paying their mortgage has extra $$ in their pockets for ipads = stimulus. All the bad MBS will just get bought up by the Fed etc (you really think a bank will get hurt in all this?).
Assuming that the bankrupt, unemployed squatters have some vault of cash to spend from? How do people conclude that BK 25% unemployment america is sitting on fat stacks of cash to go on shopping sprees?
exactly. The banks don't care, they are probably thrilled. Why do you think they opted to do this voluntarily so quickly? They get to delay taking writedowns for years possibly.
Sure they will have extra costs, but the fed is there to back them until they are all profitable again, so it really doesn't matter that much.
The bernanke put is gaining strength fast and will soon make the greenspan put look like a 99 lb weakling.
The banks will care when the MBS investors take them to court for failure to structure the vehicle properly and demand to be paid out at par. They have to give back all the costs and profits and they have to take an asset onto their books that is definitely not worth par. Add to that, they don't have the capital. Trust me, the banks are a very long way from being thrilled.
i don't think some necessary extra clerical work will lead to the scenario you describe.
but you seem to reason differently than i do, so i am sure that explains it.
time will tell who's right.
You're "assuming" that the bridge behind the Banksters isn't burnt to a crisp -- gud luk wid dat!
Is it time to jump on LDK? Leo?
While the current POMOs (Federal Reserve's re-investment of principal payments from agency & agency mortage-backed securities -- held in SOMA) may be "Reserve Bank balance sheet" OFFSETTING (H.4.1), the "trading desks" credits aren't all being "swaped", by the Primary Dealers, for the identical, assets, or expected returns.
Let the FED repeal Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act (GLB), also known as the Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999, i.e., restrict the 18 broker-dealers from engaging in stocks purchases. That's what the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 was all about (e.g., the speculative bubble in stocks in 1929).
132,155 Open interest on Jan 11 UUP 24 strike.
Somebody's expecting a short squeeze on the Dollar.
And someone is expecting the opposite - options, futures are a zero-sum game.
But some sides of the boat attract more attention than others...
Net net on extending the Bush Tax Cuts: rich will now buy more German cars, Italian suits and shoes, Chinese electronics, Korean plasmas, Middle Eastern oil, South American produce, French wine, and gold jewelry.
Nice going.
No matter how much higher this is going and for how much longer, on the day it actually goes down, it will be one for the books! This "thing" may never, really, fully recover, this damage is irreparable and there is nothing any money printing can do to restore what was once a proud profession! The day this "thing" dies will be the payday/trade of my life, without having the privilege to "pick" my shorts! Until then, add to my short position and lean back with a bourbon...my DAY will come!
I don't think you're seeing it: it can't and won't crash because real investors are out of the game already. Only Fed minions and traders are left.
It's actually going down every day that the dollar diminishes in value, because all stocks are denominated in dollars. In terms of gold, the one true currency, the market drops daily. At this hour: Dow up 0.41%, Gold up 0.69%. Wash, rinse repeat.
It's not like the market is on fire or anything. SPX is only up a little over 3% this year and is still about 5% below its 2010 high.
I don't understand why everyone seems to think the market is flying out of control or is "retarded" when it's pretty much just muddling along.
Agree.
Yep Harry muddling along only on massive almost daily infusions of POMO billions.
Harry, I hear ya. Valuation is in the eye of the beholder. However, the market has continued to rally in the face of news that clearly debunks all of the green shoots and the anticipated V-shaped recovery. Now the market moves on anticipation of government support and Fed QE. Arguably, news is shaped in a way it never was before, and economic releases are viewed from the paradigm of the likelihood of more liquidity being provided - and not organic economic growth.
And yet the cracks are clearly showing. Ireland is teetering and has lost public access to bond auctions. The Greek and EU planned bailouts are clearly flawed.
The market is whistling past the graveyard...
Q/E2 will never materialize, its all empty promises and hype for hypes sake only. Q/E2 is already in the markets and backed by nothing.
QE2 will happen. So will QE3, 4, 5, etc.
The Fed will do everything it can to stop the deflationary spiral. Fractional reserve banking requires parabolic credit growth. They are not getting it. Without QE the system will implode upon itself with all of the credit destruction of defaults.
Of course, QE will not work. But it will prolong the eventual collapse of the system. At this point, the Fed will do whatever it takes to forestall the collapse. In the end, they will be unsuccessful, but they will flail about in their dying throes. They do not care about the impacts of QE. They will do it to try to save themselves.
Right. Your examples regarding Ireland, Greece and lack of good news is precisely why the market is not up much more. Can you imagine if there was some good news out there?
What I'm saying is, I don't think the market is over or undervalued here. Pretty much seems to be stuck in blahdom right along with the economic outlook. Nothing out of whack in that scenario.
I respect your comments. You seem to have played it both ways.
In my worldview the credit system is teetering on the edge of collapse. We have no organic job growth at the same time we are spending 70% more than receipts on a Federal basis. Muni's are in huge trouble. Austerity will not work because it will lower GDP and tax revenue. Stimulus will not work because the structural inefficiencies of the economy are too great.
To me, it's like the time between Bear and Lehman when most pundits thought we were out of the woods, and there was a lot of papering over the problems going on. We have fixed nothing. Solved nothing in the 2 years since the system almost collapsed. I so no reason why we won't get back there...
Please read this book.
http://www.amazon.com/When-Money-Dies-Devaluation-Hyperinflation/dp/1586...
You need to realize that it is only because the government is spending essentially printed money and the deficit is going stratospheric that the corporate sector is looking strong.
I think we've gone beyond the point where we can control this. We either get hyperinflaiton or we get deflation, but there will be no soft landing.
Stocks may be fairly priced if they can maintain these earnings levels in perpetuity, but if inflation does spike, it will not be good for margins (unless this time is somehow miraculously different.) and the actions by the Fed are pushing us perilously close to trade and or currency wars.
I suppose it comes down to whether you gauge the economy by accounting tricks, analysts expectations and a few positive comments from CEOs, or you look at the big picture.
Mostly agree. The general progress has been steadily upward since 2/2009 or thereabouts, with remarkably few breaks except for the European Debt Crisis Dip.
I guess the main reason behind the "retard" line of thinking is that the real economy has been limping along with the help of record spending, so the equity market rise does not feel "real."
To me, the case is similar to the road projects with those "Brought to You by Washington, DC" signs you see around: The road was bumpy, now it's smooth. It may be a waste of money, but it's hard to claim that it isn't real.
Harry, you don't think an 11.5% increase in just over 30 days based only on the fed agreeing to monetize more debt as just a little out of control? Really? Cause sure the ride up is great, but hows it going to feel if the tide changes like over a long weekend when everyone is stuck attempting to use the same exit? You always seem to think you have to be long and if everyone doesn't want to be all in, long all the time that means they are short. Far from it, but I can promise you I wouldn't hold any of this crap over the weekend with the hold world thinking they are seriously pissed that we are taking a nuke to the dollar every day.
Harry, you don't think an 11.5% increase in just over 30 days based only on the fed agreeing to monetize more debt as just a little out of control?
No more out of control than the market falling about 12% in May. September's run merely equalized May's loss. I look at the overall trend which is quite benign right now. Just like the economy.
SPX was down 8% (not 12 %) in May. I think at that time it seemed half of Europe would fall off a cliff, GGB's were trading at 40, and the end of the euro was near. Pretty good reasons I reckon for a 8% drop in the broad markets. The 9% gain in September though is total market manipulation by the Fed.
Couldn't agree more. The market's reaction to the jobs number today is perfect validation that the upswing in the market is entirely driven by anticipation of currency devaluation
Let's see the Fed stop proppin' up the stocks and we'll see how much "muddling" goes on..
Just added to my Google , appl and PCLN shares. Screw macroeconomics, Charts, Bollinger bands, Leading indicators, Hindenburg Omens and all those other indicators that my grandfather usedto follow on Louis Rukeiser and William F Buckley when I was a kid. I remember being board out of my fucking skull everytime he would watch them. I would tell him to change the channel so I can watch HR Puffnstuff. The stock market is now on autopilot. This is just plain ridiculous. But , WTF.
First of all, AAPL is growing insanely and is not really expensive going forward. So don't lump them in with PCLN.
Also, per my post above, we're only a bit above 3% higher this year on SPX so it's not ridiculous. But it could become ridiculous pretty quickly with more fuel from the Fed. 1300 would be ridiculous but not 1160ish.
These are long positions.
When everyone has thrown in the towel and said 'thats it, from here markets guaranteed only to go higher' watch for one day soon when 5% is suddenly removed across the board on some opening morning. Then the permabulls will of course say they were hedged short for it.
who cares what anyone says? reality wins in the end, by definition.
I'm still trying to grasp the concept of backwardation. I can't find the term "retardation" in the index of "Trading for Dummies". Is that like backwardation but with a limp and a shimmy?
Yes and its sure giveaway is the hockey helmet.
Chart: SPX
Hey Ben...this is a top.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/10/spx_08.html
long gold and potash stocks need to eat need to pay for it
I guess I should go long "short buses"?
Hey!
Anyone else notice commodities?
The "other" yellow stuff is limit up,
along with just about everything else!
corn, up 30 cents to $5.28
wheat, up 60 cents to $7.18
soy, up 70 cents to $10.64
cotton, coffee, cocoa all up 3-4%
Is this all the work of BOJ?
currency wars!!!!!!! b*tches ....
Yup.
Not wars, just a reflection of the crumbling US economy. While some are fixated on the S&P or Naz Index, the world is changing fast and a bet on US stocks is a losing proposition.
It's like a bet on a TBTF bank.
This move is going to completely reverse as soon as the dollar hits the trendline at 76. Only about another dollar to go and we get huge reversal in market.
Sideways, bitchez??????????
Me thinks you right; back to the 1960's.
2 people are trading and they are both buying.
I wonder if we could see some coordinated interventions to pull the dollar up in value - most of the countries in trouble also want low currency values (Euro, GBP) and they've been on a tear recently.
Also, a point that no one seems to mention. If the dollar is losing value and the US stock markets are going up as a result, why is it that those countries whose currencies are GAINING in value (Euro, GBP for example) are NOT going DOWN?
This is all getting even more unstable now.
DavidC
So . lets say GS is correct and 1trillion of QE will result in .5% extra GDP - but what about the impact of rising commodity and oil prices which will act as a tax on the middle class. If past is any indication, a 10$ increase in oil will DROP gdp by .25% - but equity market has no downside. Yeah right