Equity Update

From Nic Lenoir of ICAP

Apologies for the lack of color for the past 24 hours. We pick up first with a quick update on equities following our call on Friday: Equity markets did rebound to test out the break-out level between 1,198 and 1,203. Tactical players or people interested in initiating short positions for the longer run but with a tight cost of entry should look at selling the market here, with above 1,207, to play 1,180 first, and then a drop that if we believe our signal from last Monday on the Vix should be a least 5%.

It is probably also a good level to reload on long VIX and volatility positions with an excellent risk reward.

Good luck trading,

Nic

Comments

[doublethink]

Heads Up

New York State Attorney General Cuomo to hold a press conference at 12:00pm EST.

Gee whiz...wonder what it's about.

[HarryWanger]

This? 

Cuomo: state senate leader looted $14 mln

[BlackBeard]

I like this guy.  Balls.

[fuggetaboutit]

Boy these earnings are COOKING lets see how stocks are reacting to these blow out earnings:

IBM down 2%

ETN down 1%

AOS REALLY good, down 7%

STT down 5% (apparently free money didnt work so well here)

PH up 1%

KO down 2% (and NOW the dollar is going the wrong way on them)

NTRS down 6%

SVU down 3%

[Deep]

I mentioned before i enjoy your posts

I am bearish as hell, but i am now convinced that there is no way they will crush this market before elections. Ya we'll have little corrections here and there, but I figure we will be closer to 1300 by then.

What do you think?

[fuggetaboutit]

I guess i think:

Everyone thinks things are "better"

Everyone thinks the market cant go down until the elections

Everyone thinks printing money always leads to higher asset prices (um, nope)

Therefore, something different than the above is a guaranteed outcome

[Deep]

In normal market times I would 100% agree. But these are not normal times. I truly believe that things have changed, to say things will be back to the good old days is a farce people want everyone to beleive. The Markets are broken, but the powers that be will do everything to prevent a collapse.

Anyone who is comparing this to the early 80's start of a bull market are the same people that where telling you to buy all the way down.

No i am not calling for armagedden, but the whole world economy I belive is on shaky ground. Something is gonna happen that will through everyone off, I dont know what and know one does, but they will keep this farce alive as long as possibble.

[erik]

Remember 2008?  The market didn't stay afloat before elections.  2008 had the typical sell in May and go away.  I expect this May could be similar but we will first need a double top in the market just like we had in 2000 and 2007. 

This is actually a bull market, that is where I was wrong as a bear in the last year, but this is the end of the bull market, so we can expect rally slopes to increase until exponential exhaustion occurs.

[Internet Tough Guy]

Some buffoon trying to get a rise out of Tyler and ZH in this article:

http://financialsense.com/editorials/townsend/2010/0419.html

[hamurobby]

In the reader comments area under Durden’s article, Jim Puplava is lambasted and labeled a “PumpMonkey”. The words used there with reference to Mr. Christian cannot be quoted in polite company. It would seem that the ZeroHedge community is hell bent on perceiving a conspiracy to exist where none does. A couple of sensible commentators tried to point out that Mr. Christian’s testimony was entirely factual and no cause for concern, but they were quickly silenced with personal insults and ad hominem attacks. ZeroHedge readers are a reality-resistant community, it would seem.

This is polite company, he should go over to some other boards I visit. I found it earlier as a link on dollar collapse.

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?15267-Debunking-the-Precious-Metals-Fear-Mongering-Campaign-Erik-Townsend&p=158420#post158420

[DavidC]

Please, oh please, not ANOTHER afternoon ramp up coming...

DavidC

[Lord Peter Pipsqueak]

I'm still short the Q's and now dreading AAPL's results after the bell.They are likely to beat,and I think this will give the market the momentum to blast past the previous high,such a big rally from Friday's pullback makes me think they are going to push for a retest of the highs at least.

[erik]

we will re-visit 1212-1213 in the S&P tomorrow most likely, and it will be a great opportunity to go short.  it follows Oct (sold off 72 pts) and Jan (sold off 105 pts) post-opex end of quarter script perfectly.

keep a tight stop of course, but it is a wonderful risk reward.  downside could be as low as 1045 at lowest, and more likely to be 1150 or higher.

just like Oct and Jan, we are seeing earnings beats and selling the good news in the individual stocks.

[Lord Peter Pipsqueak]

AAPL blew away the numbers again,beat eps consensus by over 30%,currently halted.Will probably open over $260 tomorrow.